Sen. Bob Menendez, D-N.J., leads his presumptive Republican challenger, state Sen. Joseph Kyrillos, by ten points but remains under 50 percent, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll released on Wednesday.

Menendez leads Kyrillos 45 percent to 35 percent in the survey. With less than three weeks to go before the June 5 primary, the latest numbers suggest little has changed in the race's landscape since the last survey. A Quinnipiac poll conducted last month showed Menendez leading Kyrillos 44 percent to 35 percent.

Most voters are unfamiliar with Kyrillos, who is a close friend of Republican Gov. Chris Christie. Seventy-five percent of New Jersey voters polled said they had not heard enough about the Republican challenger to form an opinion. Thirty-six percent said they had not heard enough about Menendez to form an opinion about him.

Independents voters prefer Menendez over Kyrillos 39 percent to 33 percent. And while Menendez and Kyrillos split the male vote -- 42 percent and 41 percent respectively -- women overwhelmingly chose the sitting senator over his Republican opponent, 47 to 29 percent.

State Sen. Deb Fischer's remarkable upset victory over Attorney General Jon Bruning on Tuesday night marks the second time in as many weeks an establishment candidate has been taken down in a GOP primary. Here are the four biggest takeaways from Fischer's win:

-- Conservative grassroots activists are having a good month: Long before national groups swooped into Indiana, local tea party leaders rallied around Richard Mourdock. And long after they left Nebraska, Fischer will stand tall as the GOP nominee. If the tea party is going to make strides this year, it's going to be be at the local level, not the national one.

(RELATED: Explaining the Tea Party Takeover)

-- The candidates matter: In this race, neither a frontrunner hamstrung by ethics woes nor a yesterday's news statewide officeholder bolstered by outside money -- but running with an 0-3 Senate race record -- was palatable to voters. Instead, a candidate with humble campaign coffers and a conservative message won.

-- It was a bad night for the Club For Growth, Sen. Jim DeMint, R-S.C., and FreedomWorks: The pro-Don Stenberg groups spent over $2 million combined. And for what? A distant third place finish for a well-known statewide official. The $2 million spent in Nebraska would be awfully useful in expensive Texas, where all three groups are backing Ted Cruz.

(RELATED: Fischer Wins GOP Senate Primary in Neb.)

-- Republicans are still favored to win Nebraska: Don't believe that Fischer's victory suddenly makes Bob Kerrey a favorite. It doesn't. Nebraska is still very conservative, the statewide environment is not good for Democrats and Fischer has been around politics long enough to run a competent campaign. What her win does do is add a bit more uncertainty to the race -- we know less about her than Bruning -- but the ball remains clearly in the GOP's court.

Updated 11:46 p.m.

State Sen. Deb Fischer won the Nebraska GOP Senate primary Tuesday in a stunning come-from-behind victory that seemed inconceivable just a few weeks ago. With 79 percent of precincts reporting, the Associated Press called the race, with Fischer leading Attorney General Jon Bruning 40 percent to 36 percent. Treasurer Don Stenberg was third with 19 percent.

Fischer advances to a general election contest with former Democratic Sen. Bob Kerrey. The Republican is favored in Nebraska, a red state in a presidential year.

Bruning was the frontrunner throughout the race, greatly outspending his two opponents (while Bruning ran over 20,000 gross rating points in the state, all non-Bruning spending combined amounted to under 18,000 gross rating points, according to a source tracking media buys in the state). But he and Stenberg -- who was backed by conservative groups like Jim DeMint's Senate Conservatives Fund -- had been attacking each other. Fischer, who was largely ignored until the end, appeared to benefit from the sniping between the two men.

In the final week of the race, Fischer started gaining momentum and accepted a high-profile endorsement from Sarah Palin, and then one from Rep. Jeff Fortenberry, R-Neb. A Super PAC boosted her with an ad during the final weekend of the primary.

"The difference in this race couldn't be more clear. Deb is a small business rancher, mother and conservative leader who believes we need to spend less, balance our budget and repeal ObamaCare, while her opponent supports bigger government and higher taxes," NRSC chairman John Cornyn said in a statement.

Meanwhile, Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee spokesperson Matt Canter called Fischer "an untested hypocritical politician whose record and positions have never been scrutinized."

There are two ways to look at Rep. Mike Pence's first TV ad.

Viewed one way, the Indiana Republican gubernatorial nominee's opening spot is pretty standard fare: It's a straightforward, minute-long introductory commercial underscoring his Hoosier roots and family values.

"There are two things I know about Mike Pence. He loves our family and he just loves Indiana. This year, we will celebrate our 27th wedding anniversary, and I will never forget that very first date," says Pence's wife, Karen Pence, who narrates the entire ad, which contains a lot about Pence's life.

Pretty typical stuff. And with Democrats trying to cast the frontrunning Pence as an out-of-touch Washington insider, and blasting him for living in Virginia, it's a timely rebuttal.

Viewed another way however, the spot features a subtle jab at Pence's opponent.

There is a heavy emphasis on Pence's marriage in the commercial, including a close-up of what could be viewed as a wedding ring.

That's significant because his opponent, Democratic nominee John Gregg, is divorced. It's by no means a campaign issue, but everything in politics is done only after careful calculation.

Pence's campaign says the ad is nothing more than an introductory bio spot.

It's a reminder of the multiple messages TV ads can carry - intentional or unintentional.

Here's something you don't often see in debates: One candidate ending with a preemptive endorsement of another. The Grand Rapids Press:

One week after the primary, the Republican Governors Association is going up with its first TV ad in North Carolina. The aim of the 30-second spot is clear: Tie Democratic nominee Walter Dalton to Gov. Bev Perdue.

"Walter Dalton is Bev Perdue's right-hand man. Now, Walter Dalton is running away from Perdue. But, under Perdue and Dalton's high tax policies, 40,000 more North Carolinians are out of work," says the narrator of the ad.

Struggling in the polls, Perdue, the first-term governor opted in January not to seek reelection, triggering a primary that Dalton, the state's lt. governor, won last week. Look for Republicans to try to tie the two together time and again leading up to November since Perdue is not a very popular figure in the state.

The Republican nominee, former Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory is the frontrunner in the race. McCrory lost a close open race to Perdue in 2008.

Rep. Howard Berman has the backing of some of the biggest names in Hollywood. So why has a super PAC supporting his candidacy aired some of the lowest production-value political ads of the year?

One ad features a "worker" in a hard hat, but includes five seconds of dead time on screen with the worker only blinking. Another is a text-heavy spot in which almost every word narrated also appears on the screen.

The ads were paid for and produced by a super PAC that is boosting Berman in his marquee congressional match against fellow Democratic Rep. Brad Sherman after the two veteran Democrats were drawn into the same Los Angeles-area district last year.

The super PAC is not a low budget affair, having booked more than $175,000 in media buys in recent weeks.

And yet each of the ads "looks like it was done with somebody's home video camera," said Steve Maviglio, a California-based Democratic political strategist. "If it were sandwiched between an ad for a beauty parlor and a hamburger joint, it might not look so bad. But on the face of it the production is so amateurish."

Berman has plenty of Hollywood friends that could have lent a hand. Hollywood heavyweights Steven Spielberg, Jeffrey Katzenberg and David Geffen co-hosted a mega-fundraiser for him last fall. Just last week, Berman accompanied President Obama to a glitzy fundraiser at George Clooney's home.

David Letterman of the Late Show and Jay Leno of The Tonight Show poked fun at the latest Newsweek cover which portrays President Obama as the first gay president, while everyone found the humor in the candidates' commencement addresses over the weekend.

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 1:21 to see some hilarious pranks Mitt Romney has pulled throughout the years.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. It's primary day in Nebraska, where a wild three-way GOP Senate race looks like it is headed for a close finish. Meanwhile, Warren tried to change the subject in Massachusetts, Hatch prepares to hit the airwaves in Utah, Colorado rejects a measure approving civil unions, and Rand Paul presidential buzz is already ramping up. Here's today's rundown:

10) The Louisville Courier-Journal's John David Dyche thinks Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., is preparing to run for president in 2016.

9) Democrat Eric Griego is releasing a new TV ad in New Mexico's 1st District that says he will fight Wall Street bankers who broke the law.

8) According to the latest USA Today/Gallup national survey's generic congressional race ballot test, 50 percent would vote for the Republican candidate, while 44 percent would vote for the Democratic candidate, with 6 percent undecided. That's a slight uptick in GOP support from the last survey in February, in which the generic Republican and Democrat tied at 47 percent apiece.

7) Guess who congratulated Richard Mourdock and gave him $10,000 from his PAC once he won the Republican nomination in Indiana: Sen. Orrin Hatch, R-Utah, who is facing a conservative primary challenge of his own.

6) Speaking of Hatch, Politico reports that the incumbent is set to go on the air with a $133,000 TV ad buy. Hatch's opponent, Dan Liljenquist, has been pressing the senator for more debates, but Hatch has agreed to just one and has largely stayed above the fray in the primary race.

While Wisconsin Democrats reportedly are angry with the national party for not offering greater financial assistance for Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett's gubernatorial campaign, it's worth noting that, in some ways, the interests of Barrett's campaign are at odds with those of President Obama's reelection team.

For Barrett to defeat Republican Gov. Scott Walker, he needs to convince voters that the state's economy is headed in the wrong direction. Recent polling in Wisconsin shows the state is extremely polarized with only a sliver of the electorate undecided heading toward the recall general election. Arguments over collective bargaining rights for public sector unions are less important to these voters than those firmly entrenched on either side of the aisle. That is why the early stages of the Walker-Barrett rematch largely have focused on the economy, with the two sides continually bickering over the state's job numbers. If independent voters lose faith in Walker's ability to steer the economy, Barrett's chances of unseating the governor improve.

But the opposite is true for Obama. With Wisconsin potentially in play in November, the last thing the president's campaign wants is a growing sense that the economy is headed in the wrong direction, especially among all-important independent voters.

This is not to suggest that the Obama camp is by any means rooting for Walker over Barrett, who the White House recruited to run for governor in 2010. And momentum from a Barrett victory could ultimately boost Obama's chances in the Badger State. But for the moment, Barrett and Obama want voters to have very different views on the direction of the state's economy.

Last Tuesday, the Republican establishment was dealt a blow when tea party-backed state Treasurer Richard Mourdock decisively beat Sen. Richard Lugar in the GOP primary. This Tuesday, establishment Republicans face their next big test in Nebraska. Can their favored candidate, Attorney General Jon Bruning, survive? It's not clear that he will win a contest that has been upended in the last week.

Nebraska is the ripest Republican pickup opportunity on the Senate map this cycle. With Democratic Sen. Ben Nelson retiring, former Sen. Bob Kerrey has the difficult task of trying to hold the seat for Democrats in the red state, in a presidential year, no less.

But Kerrey will be watching the GOP primary returns because the outcome of the vote will affect his prospects. He will likely enter the general election as the underdog against whoever the GOP nominee is, but he may be in a more competitive race if he isn't facing Bruning.

Before last week, the Republican race looked like a face-off between Bruning and state Treasurer Don Stenberg, who is backed by the Sen. Jim DeMint's Senate Conservatives Fund, the Club for Growth, and FreedomWorks.

But suddenly, the mostly-ignored, underfunded third candidate in the race burst into contention. State Sen. Deb Fischer, a rancher, released an internal poll that showed her within striking distance of Bruning, with Stenberg slipping into third place. In the following days, Fischer's momentum started snowballing: she picked up an endorsement from Sarah Palin, then one from Rep. Jeff Fortenberry, R-Neb. And perhaps most telling: Bruning went negative for the first time in a television ad, attacking Fischer and Stenberg. For a candidate who's been ignored for months, there's no better recognition that you're in the game.

Arkansas Democratic Rep. Mike Ross, who announced he wouldn't be running for re-election to the House last year, is abandoning his plans to run for governor of the state. The six-term congressman initially said he wasn't seeking another term so he could explore a gubernatorial bid in 2014.

"I've received a lot of encouragement and given serious consideration to seeking the office of Governor of Arkansas in 2014, a race that will begin early next year. However, after a lot of prayer and reflection, I have decided that I will not be a candidate for Governor in 2014," Ross said in a statement on his Facebook page.

Instead, he will be joining the Little-Rock based Southwest Power Pool at the end of his term as its senior vice-president for government affairs and public relations.

Ross's decision makes it likely that Arkansas Attorney General Dustin McDaniel will be the favored Democratic gubernatorial nominee in 2014, when Gov. Mike Beebe's term expires. Arkansas term limits prevent Beebe from seeking a third term.

Less than a week after unseating Sen. Richard Lugar, R-Ind., Treasurer Richard Mourdock is in a dead heat with Democratic Rep. Joe Donnelly, according to a new poll conducted for the Donnelly campaign.

The poll, which was first reported by the Washington Post, shows Mourdock and Donnelly tied at 40 percent, with 20 percent undecided.

The numbers fall in line with an argument that Democrats have made since Lugar went down last week: That the nomination of Mourdock, who ran to the right of Lugar and courted tea party support during the primary, gives Democrats a November pick-up opportunity in the Hoosier state.

After prevailing in what was at times an ugly primary battle with Lugar, Mourdock has become well-known in the state, with just 7 percent saying they have never heard of him, compared to 32 percent who said they have never heard of Donnelly. But the poll also shows a rise in the percentage of voters who dislike the treasurer. Thirty-seven percent of respondents said they have an unfavorable view of Mourdock, while 36 said they have a favorable view. In a March poll conducted for the Donnelly campaign, just 22 percent said they viewed Mourdock unfavorably.

Asked of their opinion of Donnelly, 28 percent said they have a favorable opinion of the congressman, while 12 percent said they have an unfavorable opinion.

The Global Strategy Group survey of 602 Indiana registered voters was conducted Thursday through Monday and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

A super PAC supporting Richard Mourdock is hitting statewide radio today with a new ad buy tying Democratic Rep. Joe Donnelly to President Obama.

The ad features an Obama impersonator thanking Donnelly for his support.

"We got the bailouts, the stimulus spending, and my favorite, Obamacare. We can always count on you Joe, and with you in the U.S. Senate we can march America forward," says the voice actor impersonating Obama.

The ad is one of what will likely be many similar spots Mourdock and his allied outside groups are going to use against Donnelly in the campaign. The refrain will likely be consistent: He's voted with the president on the major legislative battles like the stimulus and health care reform law.

USA Super PAC, the group airing the ad, spent about $150,000 to help Mourdock in the primary, and is spending $25,000 on a weeklong buy on statewide radio.

As if there weren't enough wrenches thrown into the unpredictable Nebraska Republican Senate primary last week, a wealthy businessman is making a big-money, last-minute push to help conservative underdog Deb Fischer take down frontrunning Attorney General Jon Bruning. If Bruning loses, he will be the second GOP establishment Senate candidate in as many weeks to go down, following Sen. Richard Lugar's loss in Indiana. The Omaha World-Herald:

Both the Fischer campaign and Ricketts's super PAC denied any wrongdoing, the World-Herald reported.

Joe Ricketts is the father of Pete Ricketts, the 2006 Republican Senate nominee who lost to Sen. Ben Nelson. That year, Ricketts beat Don Stenberg in the primary.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Tommy Thompson suffers a setback among Wisconsin Republican activists, while the Connecticut Democrats overwhelmingly get behind Chris Murphy. Meanwhile, Heitkamp and Tester launch new ads seeking to localize their races, Mitt Romney does not mention his Mormon faith during a speech at Liberty University and Democrats face more North Carolina headaches. Here's today's rundown:

11) It looks like Newsweek is trying to out-do its rival Time's latest cover with its own head-turning effort -- proclaiming President Obama as the "first gay president."

10) Sen. Lamar Alexander, R-Tenn., is already seeking to avoid the Lugar treatment: Over two years away from reelection, Alexander is releasing a survey which the Tennessee Journal reports shows some encouraging signs for him: "Among all voters, Alexander's favorable-to-unfavorable rating was 60% to 26%. Among Republicans it was 72% to 15%, independents 58% to 28%, and Democrats 45% to 39%." It's not clear yet that Alexander runs again, but if he does, he appears to be in good shape.

9) The Washington Post reports on Florida Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson's leisurely campaign pace -- a clear sign of the slow-moving Republican race and the still unsettled GOP field: "during the latest congressional recess, the courtly two-term senator and former astronaut met with college students, held a tiny news conference to tout a crackdown on identity theft and hosted a business roundtable in Cocoa Beach. There were no campaign rallies. No stump speeches, no scurrying across the huge state in search of the quintessential swing voters."

8) The lackluster GOP field in the Missouri Senate race is giving Sen. Claire McCaskill, D-Mo., an early breather. She's under 50 percent in a new Democratic poll conducted by Mark Mellman, but still leads all Republicans, while the DSCC has sent a message by reserving fall ad time in the state. No one would argue McCaskill's in a great position, but she could benefit from a less-than-impressive GOP challenger.

Sen. Claire McCaskill, D-Mo., leads all three of her potential Republican opponents by single-digit margins but is under 50 percent in a new Democratic poll conducted last week.

McCaskill, viewed widely as one of the cycle's most vulnerable incumbents, leads former Treasurer Sarah Steelman 45 percent to 36 percent, with 19 percent undecided, according to the survey conducted for the Democratic-aligned outside group Majority PAC. McCaskill leads businessman John Brumner 46 percent to 38 percent with 16 percent undecided. Finally, she outpaces Rep. Todd Akin 44 percent to 39 percent, with 17 percent undecided.

Pollster Mark Mellman writes that McCaskill has actually expanded her lead over Steelman and Brunner since March. A matchup against Akin was not tested in March.

None of the three of the Republicans running has been very formidable on the campaign trail or fundraising front (though Brunner is largely self-funding), allowing an opening for the vulnerable McCaskill, who is running in a state President Obama is almost certain to lose in November. The Republican primary is August 7 and it's not yet clear which candidate has the inside track.

Mother's Day weekend was the theme for most of the late-night hosts, but they still found time to poke fun at Obama, Romney, gay marriage, Ron Paul, and Dwight D. Eisenhower.

All jokes aside I hope everyone found the time to wish their mothers a happy Mother's Day.

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 1:30 to get an update on Ron Paul's presidential campaign.

What we at The Hotline learned this week:

-- President Obama's gay marriage reversal was an historic moment, but it was just that - a moment. Don't expect his embrace of a controversial social issue to actually move any votes this year. For one thing, the only segment of the Democratic base that disagrees on gay marriage - socially conservative African Americans - is the segment most likely to stick with Obama through thick and thin.

-- On the other hand, even if the country itself is evenly divided overall, it hardly seems far-fetched to conclude that some down-ballot Democrats in red states may suffer from Obama's announcement, and a good many of this year's toss-up races will be in areas with culturally conservative populations. It is by no means proven that all anti-gay marriage voters in these seats would never have voted for Obama or Democrats anyway, as some have suggested.

-- Polling on the issue of same-sex marriage is ambiguous. In most surveys, Americans narrowly favor same-sex marriage or -- at worst -- are split on the question. Some observers have wondered if respondents might tell live-caller pollsters that they favor same-sex marriage when they actually oppose it because they don't think their opposition is socially acceptable, and so automated polls might better reflect public opinion on the issue. But there are two problems with that theory: the fact that same-sex marriage has become more acceptable reflects a change in public opinion, and automated pollsters can't legally call cell phones. Younger Americans are more likely to live in households without a landline, meaning automated pollsters would be shortchanging those who appear to be driving this change.

-- One puzzling thing in the wake of Obama's gay marriage announcement: The apparent need for Obama's top advisers to throw Vice President Biden under the bus, figuratively, for speaking out on the issue ahead of his boss. Yes, he made an unintentional gaffe, and stepped entirely over the president's re-election message. Yes, he made the president look bad by outspokenly backing an issue the president was still "evolving" over - when he's supposed to be the White House's unofficial liaison to working-class white voters. (Indeed, senior WH officials anonymously told the New York Times that he privately opposed coming out for gay marriage before making his "Meet the Press" comments.

But now that the cat's out of the bag, there was no need to play the blame game - and leak publicly that Biden was forced to apologize to the president in the Oval Office. It made the White House look too self-centered in the wake of the historic announcement, and unable to celebrate a very real accomplishment.

-- If you're looking for the relevance of the tea party this cycle, take a glance at Indiana, where early organization and synergy among conservative groups paved the way for Treasurer Richard Mourdock to emerge as a consensus challenger in the Senate race well before outside groups swooped in. Sen. Richard Lugar, who ran a lousy campaign, is mostly to blame for his own loss on Tuesday. But the local flavor of his defeat is also a reminder that when conservative grassroots groups band together, their anti-establishment message is less muddled and more powerful than when national organizations on the right swoop in and hijack campaigns.

The Sunday shows conclude a busy week of President Obama's gay marriage endorsement, a terrorist attack thwarted, and a flash back to former Massachusetts Republican Gov. Mitt Romney's past.

RNC chair Reince Priebus and Maryland Democratic Gov. and DGA Chairman Martin O'Malley will be on NBC's Meet the Press to talk about the 2012 election. On CNN's State of the Union, Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin and NRSC chair John Cornyn will talk about 2012 and Congress's agenda for the rest of the year. Colorado Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper will also be on State of the Union to talk about his home state's swing state status.

Obama came out this week in favor of gay marriage after Vice President Joe Biden forced the issue on last week's Meet the Press. California Democratic Lieutenant Gov. Gavin Newsom and American Conservative Union President Al Cardenas will be part of this week's Meet the Press panel that will discuss the impact of the endorsement. Massachusetts Democratic Gov. Deval Patrick and former Solicitor General Ted Olsen, who is the attorney for the case against California's Proposition 8, will also talk about the president's decision. Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass., Rep. Marsha Blackburn, R-Tenn., and former New York Democratic Gov. Eliot Spitzer are on ABC's This Week to debate the ramifications of the gay marriage endorsement.

Fox News' Shannon Bream will be substitute hosting for Chris Wallace this week. She'll have on Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., to discuss the foiled terrorist plot that originated in Yemen and Sen. John Thune, R-S.D., to talk about Romney's vice presidential choices.

Sen. Joe Lieberman, I-Conn., and Rep. Peter King, R-N.Y. will be on CNN's State of the Union to discuss the failed terrorist attack. Rep. Mike Rogers, R-Mich., will be on CBS' Face the Nation talking about the same issue.

JPMorgan Chase bank is America's most profitable bank but it posted a trading loss of $2 billion dollars this week. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon will be on Meet the Press to talk about the economy and this week's surprising news.

Tune in this weekend as CNN will begin its documentary series which looks at key electorate demographic groups and issues surrounding the 2012 election. The first one up is Voters in America: Vets Wanted? Actor JR Martinez narrates the special exploring the difficulties veterans are experiencing gaining employment in the current economy. Also appearing on the program is Iraq & Afghanistan Veterans of America founder Paul Rieckhoff.

The special focuses on National Guard units as they find themselves in cycles of voluntary deployments because the jobs were not available. The special airs on Sunday at 8 p.m. and re-airs at 11 p.m. on CNN.

Check out the full listings after the jump.