October 31, 2005

HRC Has "Serious Questions" About Alito

Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-NY) just weighed in on the Alito nomination, saying his record "raises serious questions about whether he will be steadfast in protecting our most fundamental rights."

Still, she remained neutral, saying the nomination "must initiate a thoughtful and deliberate process of closely examining and scrutinizing Judge Alito's record to determine whether he merits a seat on the highest court in the nation."

Clinton voted against John Roberts last month because, she said at the time, she didn't believe he "presented his views with enough clarity and specificity for me to in good conscience cast a vote on his behalf." In one sign that she'd apply the same standard to Samuel Alito, Clinton urged Pres. Bush and Alito to be "forthcoming" during the confirmation process.

Posted 10.31.05 02:12 PM | Comments (1)

Snowe Wonder How She'll Vote

Sen. Olympia Snowe (ME), a pro-choice GOPer who openly lobbied Pres. Bush to nominate a female successor to Sandra Day O'Connor, today showed a strong grasp on the Senate nomination process. But Snowe gave few, if any, clues on how she feels about Bush's nomination of conservative judge Samuel Alito to the High Court.

"Today the Senate again takes up its 'consent' role as expressed under the 'advice and consent' clause of the Constitution. The task before the Senate Judiciary Committee is to thoroughly and independently evaluate Judge Alito's qualifications, and I am confident that will occur under Chairman Specter's leadership. I will evaluate Judge Alito based on his lengthy record including all of his opinions, scholarship, judicial methodology and philosophy," Snowe said in a statement.

"As the Senate begins considering this nomination, I will be in close contact with my Senate colleagues, including our group of fourteen senators who brokered the compromise earlier this year to move us past a deadlock on judicial nominees."

Posted 10.31.05 12:33 PM | Comments (0)

From The Blogometer...

A quick survey of what key bloggers are writing re: Alito this a.m. Look for more in today's "Blogometer":

Hugh Hewitt, who supported Miers to the point of angering some fellow conservatives, is back on the same page with them: "Judge Alito is a great nominee, and as a result a great political battle lies ahead." Hewitt writes, "the best way to preempt a filibuster" is for the 9 GOPers "thought lukewarm or hostile to the constitutional option to announce" that they will vote for it if Dems "attempt a filibuster based upon ideology." Sen Lindsey Graham (R-SC) has already done so; he posts Senate contact info for the other 8.

Blogs for Bush's Matt Margolis, who was lukewarm on Miers, has already put together a banner reading "Confirm Alito Coalition, Est. October 31, 2005."

Alito's Casey dissent is already the hot topic many expected it would be. If you want to know whicht talking points the lefty bloggers are working off, for many it's CAP's Think Progress, which posts Alito oppo under the header "Samuel Alito's America," summarized with headers such as "ALITO WOULD OVERTURN ROE V. WADE," "ALITO WOULD ALLOW RACE-BASED DISCRIMINATION," and "ALITO HOSTILE TOWARD IMMIGRANTS."

And liberal Patridiot Watch points out that if Alito is confirmed, he'll be the 2nd Trenton, NJ native (the other is Scalia) on the Court -- not to mention one in a line of NJ GOPers to be appointed by Bush (including Whitman, Chertoff and Bernanke). [BILL BEUTLER]

Posted 10.31.05 10:09 AM | Comments (0)

No Need To Reid Between The Lines Here

Senate Min. Leader Harry Reid on Alito: "Conservative activists forced Miers to withdraw from consideration because she was not radical enough for them. Now the Senate needs to find out if the man replacing Miers is too radical for the American people."

We're seeing a pattern already. Senate Dems are not touching Alito, the person, but attacking the process.

Posted 10.31.05 10:04 AM | Comments (0)

Brownback on Alito: "Impressive"

Sen. Sam Brownback (R-KS), who had emerged as one of the staunchest critics of Harriet Miers, is taking a more positive approach to Samuel Alito today, noting the judge's "impressive legal credentials" and "broad legal experience."

"I commend the president and congratulate Judge Alito on this nomination, and I look forward to the upcoming confirmation hearing, during which members of the Judiciary Committee will have a robust and, I hope, civil dialogue with the nominee about the meaning of the Constitution and the role of the courts in American life," Brownback, a Judiciary Committee member, said in a statement.

Posted 10.31.05 09:11 AM | Comments (0)

Dem Talking Points on Alito

Minutes before Bush announced Samuel Alito's announcement, Dems fired off a statement saying Alito is "often referred to as 'Judge Scalito' because of his adherence to Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia's right-wing judicial philosophy. While serving as a U.S. Attorney, Alito failed to obtain a key conviction, releasing nearly two dozen mobsters back into society. Based on his Third Circuit opinions, Alito has established himself as a potential foe to immigrants, reproductive rights, and civil liberties."

Posted 10.31.05 08:01 AM | Comments (1)

Schumer: "Sad" About Alito

Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY), the ranking member of the Judiciary subcommittee on the courts, released the following statement on Pres. Bush's nomination of Judge Samuel Alito for the position of Supreme Court Associate Justice:

"It is sad that the president felt he had to pick a nominee likely to divide America instead of choosing a nominee in the mold of Sandra Day O'Connor, who would unify us. This controversial nominee, who would make the Court less diverse and far more conservative, will get very careful scrutiny from the Senate and from the American people."

Posted 10.31.05 07:53 AM | Comments (2)

Frist Out First

The Senate Maj. Leader on Alito: "This morning, President Bush nominated Judge Sam Alito as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States. With this selection, the president has chosen a proven nominee that meets the highest standards of excellence."

For history's sake, here's what Frist said of Harriet Miers on the day she was nominated: "Ms. Miers is honest and hard working and understands the importance of judicial restraint and the limited role of a judge to interpret the law and not legislate from the bench."

Posted 10.31.05 07:42 AM | Comments (0)

It's Scalito!

... or so AP is reporting right now. Samuel Alito is reportedly the person who will be standing by Pres. Bush's side at 8am this morning. Our over/under on SEN confirmation for this SCOTUS nominee opens at 63...

Posted 10.31.05 06:22 AM | Comments (0)

October 28, 2005

Weekend Calendar

Seems like half the field was in Iowa this week...

• Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN) keynotes the New Hampshire Democratic Party's Jefferson-Jackson dinner on 10/29. On 10/30, he appears at a town hall in Franklin, NH organized by State Rep. Jim Ryan and campaigns with Manchester Mayor Bob Baines.
• Sen. Joseph Biden (D-DE) speaks today at the Robert J. Dole Institute of Politics at the University of Kansas in Lawrence. Biden also has events in NJ on 10/30. He's in New Hampshire on 11/1.
• Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-NY) raises money today for NH Gov. John Lynch in Boston and then attends a fundraiser with four Dem Sens. She appears at campaign rallies for the Westchester County Democratic ticket on Saturday in Mount Vernon, NY and Sunday in Greenburgh, NY
• Ex-Sen. John Edwards is down in NC.
• Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) takes part a civil rights march on 10/30 with Rep. John Lewis (D-GA) in Boston.
• Gov. Bill Richardson (D-NM) has no public events and is home in NM.
• Gov. Tom Vilsack (D-IA) attends an Iowa Latino Heritage award event in Des Moines on 10/29 and an event for Disky Terry, a former staff of his who is running Iowa Sec. of Ag.
• Gov. Mark Warner (D-VA) campaigns with VA Gov. candidate Tim Kaine.
• Sen. George Allen (R-VA) attends a Boots 'n' Barbecue event for VA Gov candidate Jerry Gilgore at the home of Rob and Jennifer McDowell in Vienna, VA on 10/29. He attends the Redskins/Giants (or, as we like it call it, the Giants/Redskins) game on 10/30.
• Sen. Sam Brownback (R-KS) is in Topeka.
• Ex-Rep. Newt Gingrich (R-GA) attends the AR GOP annual Lincoln Day dinner in Washington Co., AZ on 10/29.
• Ex-NYC mayor Rudy Giuliani has no public schedule.
• Gov. Mike Huckabee (R-AR) participates in the Marine Corps Maraton in Washington on 10/30.
• Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-NE) speaks at Iowa State University in AMes, IA on 10/30. It's his first trip (aside from brief airport visits) this year.
• Gov. George Pataki (R-NY) was in IA on 10/27; he is in NY for the weekend.
• Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA) attends the Scott County, Iowa Hog Roast on 10/29 at Club Mo-Kan in Danvenport, IA. Later that day, he attends the Dallas County GOP Steak Fry and Pie Auction at Waukee High School. He has private meetings with IA activists in between.
• Rep. Tom Tancredo (R-CO) has district events in his home state.

Posted 10.28.05 03:31 PM | Comments (0)

Fitzgerald Speaks!

"The bulk of this investigation is over."

But refuses to say what parts of the investigation aren't over.

"It's important the witnesses that come before a grand jury, especially the witnesses...who may be under investigation, tell the complete truth."

"To be frank, Mr. Libby gave the FBI a compelling story. What he told the FBI was that he was at the end of a long chain of phone calls...[that]...Mr. Russert told him that 'all the reporters know' that Ms. Plame worked at the CIA? So he took this information and passed it along to other reporters."

"He was at the beginning at the chain of the phone calls. He lied about it afterwards, under oath and repeatedly."

"He told the FBI that when he passed the information on to reporters, he didn't know whether it was true...just passing gossip from one reporter to another. It would be a compelling story, if only it were true...Mr. Libby discussed the information at least a half a dozen times before he spoke to Mr. Russert."

"Mr. Libby was telling Mr. Fleischer something on Monday that he said he learned on Thursday."

"This is a country that takes its law seriously."

Posted 10.28.05 02:18 PM | Comments (0)

Cheney Statement

"Mr. Libby has informed me that he is resigning to fight the charges brought against him. I have accepted his decision with deep regret."

"Scooter Libby is one of the most capable and talented individuals I have ever known. He has given many years of his life to public service and has served our nation tirelessly and with great distinction."

"In our system of government an accused person is presumed innocent until a contrary finding is made by a jury after an opportunity to answer the charges and a full airing of the facts. Mr. Libby is entitled to that opportunity."

"Because this is a pending legal proceeding, in fairness to all those involved, it would be inappropriate for me to comment on the charges or on any facts relating to the proceeding."

Posted 10.28.05 01:55 PM | Comments (1)

Reactions, Mostly From Democrats

Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) "It is stunning to see someone so close to the President and Vice President indicted for lying to a grand jury and trying to cover up a national security leak."

Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-NY): "Today's indictment charging that Lewis Libby willfully interfered with the investigation into the possible exposure of a CIA agent's identity raises serious national security concerns. Taking such action for political purposes is simply reprehensible and should never be tolerated."

Rep. Jack Kingston (R-GA): "Mr. Libby's resignation is appropriate. The court can now decide the facts of the case. An indictment is not a statement of guilt, but simply outlines the case for the prosecutor. Keep in mind that we have not heard Mr. Libby's side of this story."
."

Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN): "Launching a campaign to smear political opponents is not something top officials should be engaged in, especially when we have so many serious challenges facing our country. I hope the President will take this opportunity to tell the American people that the politics of personal destruction will no longer be conducted in his White House. We need to put an end to the type of politics that has divided our country so profoundly."

Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV): "These are very serious charges. They suggest that a senior White House aide put politics ahead of our national security and the rule of law."

Rep. Harold Ford, Jr. (D-TN): ""It is now important that we rekindle people's confidence in government's ability to work for them. The next few weeks will test the White House and Congress. We should rise to the occasion by working together to pass a balanced budget that does not shove more debt on middle class Americans. We should also craft a rebuilding plan for the Gulf Coast that is paid for not by cutting programs for poor and middle-class working Americans, but by asking everyone to share proportionately in the cost."

Rep. Dennis J. Kucinich (D-OH): ""The buck does not stop with an aide. Those responsible for this colossal foreign policy misdeed must be held accountable to the American public, to the Congress and to courts of law."

Sen. Ted Kennedy (D-MA) -- "Dissent is the ultimate form of patriotism, and it's time we return to having an honest discourse in this country about changing direction and paying attention to the needs of the American people

Posted 10.28.05 01:42 PM | Comments (0)

Other Questions

Whence Novak?

Who was the State Dept. official who Libby set to the task of learning about Plame and Wilson? (Says Josh Marshall: "Hint: Look at the org chart at the State Department and whose purview the State Dept intel shop, INR, falls under."

We did -- it'd be the Sec/State and the Dep. Sec/State directly.

Posted 10.28.05 01:41 PM | Comments (0)

Missing From The Indictment

No sense that anyone in the White House, from Cheney on down, knew that Plame's status at the CIA was covert.

Posted 10.28.05 01:24 PM | Comments (2)

Wonder Who Official "A" Is...

From the indictment: "On or about July 10 or July 11, 2003, LIBBY spoke to a senior official in the White House ("Official A") who advised LIBBY of a conversation Official A had earlier that week with columnist Robert Novak in which Wilson's wife was discussed as a CIA employee involved in Wilson's trip. LIBBY was advised by Official A that Novak would be writing a story about Wilson's wife."

UPDATE: We are being facetious. Thanks to those of you who wrote in to suggest "Karl Rove."

Posted 10.28.05 01:20 PM | Comments (1)

First Take

Five count indictment against I. Lewis "Scooter" Libby, for giving false testimony to a grand jury, a felony; obstruction of justice; and perjury.

2 counts of perjury; 2 counts of obstruction.

Posted 10.28.05 12:40 PM | Comments (0)

Rove Gave Fitz Something New

From a Washington Post chat with Jim VandeHei: "Here is what I can report on Rove front: Rove provided the special prosecutor something in recent days that gave in the words of one person close to him "pause" about charging Rove. The Rove team anticipates the special prosecutor will make a decision within weeks, not months."

A source close to Rove confirms that, in discussions with Fitzgerald, Rove's attorney provided new information that "gave him pause."

Posted 10.28.05 12:02 PM | Comments (2)

McC to Reporters: No SC Announcement Today

WH Press Secretary Scott McLellan told reporters this a.m. that Bush would not name his new SCOTUS choice today.

The name we hear from just about everone is Alito.

Posted 10.28.05 11:19 AM | Comments (0)

Official Rove Statement

From Robert Luskin, Rove's attorney: "The Special Counsel has advised Mr. Rove that he has made no decision about whether or not to bring charges and that Mr. Rove's status has not changed. Mr. Rove will continue to cooperate fully with the Special Counsel's efforts to complete the investigation. We are confident that when the Special Counsel finishes his work, he will conclude that Mr. Rove has done nothing wrong."

Posted 10.28.05 10:08 AM | Comments (3)

2:00 pm

The grand jury meets today at 9:00 a.m. We expect an announcement from the prosecutor around 2:00 pm.

The Washington Post's Carol Leonnig said on Fox News Channel that Fitzgerald will present his indictment to a magistrate around 11:30 a.m.

At 2, he'll head down the block to the DoJ headquarters to give a press conference. At the same time, he'll release his report on the case on his web site.

ABC's George Stephanopoulos reports that if a member of the White House staff is indicted, President Bush will speak on it this afternoon.

Posted 10.28.05 09:58 AM | Comments (1)

WH To Ask Cong. For $17B For Katrina

The White House plans today to present a package of rescissions and budget re-allocation package to Congress this afternoon, according to Republican sources.

The package contains about $17 billion for Katrina rebuilding. No new funding -- just re-allocation and rescission requests. [MARC AMBINDER]

Posted 10.28.05 09:54 AM | Comments (0)

Jovial Mood?

From ABC's The Note: Per ABC News' Karen Travers, before leaving for VA, Bush was seen in the Oval Office talking with Vice President Cheney, Andy Card, Karl Rove, and Dan Bartlett.

More from Travers: "The President was definitely in a good mood -- he came out and did a quick head fake (basketball player like move -- very Allen Iverson head fake especially for someone with a bum knee) as if he would come talk to us and then went the other way and started smiling and sort of laughing. He then pretended not to hear us shouting (Reagan ear cup thing)."

Posted 10.28.05 09:37 AM | Comments (1)

SCOTUS choice Monday or Tuesday

A source close to the selection process will make a final decision about a Supreme Court nominee this weekend and plans to introduce nominee on Monday or Tuesday. Names that allies are pushing this a.m: Judge Samuel Alito and Judge Michael McConnell. [MARC AMBINDER]

Posted 10.28.05 08:39 AM | Comments (14)

October 27, 2005

Bayh's J-J Speech: Some Excerpts

Here are some excerpts from IN Sen. Evan Bayh's speech as prepared for delivery on Saturday, 10/29 at the New Hampshire Democratic Party's Jefferson-Jackson dinner.

"Let me begin with some good news: in three years, the Bush era will be over. Gone. Finished. Forever."

"We live today in a truly transformational time. It's a time of unrelenting change and challenge ...What has this President done to help us meet these challenges? I could say nothing, but that would be too generous. We are less prepared today for the challenges of the 21st Century than the day President Bush took office. And that's inexcusable. America can do better."

"Together, we must chart a course to Restore the Promise of America ... How do we do that? It begins with leadership -- leadership based on four values at the heart of America's Promise. Unity, Opportunity, Real Security and Accountability."

"I reject the notion that as Democrats, we can only win in the so-called 'Blue States.' We win when we stand up for American values, for the American promise that is the birthright of every child born in this nation and every person who comes here."

"But our success in Indiana by embracing Unity, Opportunity, Security, and Accountability is a path to meeting the challenges of our time, restoring the Promise of America’s and building the majority we need to govern."

Posted 10.27.05 09:22 PM | Comments (4)

More On Davis-Bacon

Pres. Bush's lifting of the Davis-Bacon exemption in Katrina-affected communities was done in part to avoid the political embarrassment of a GOP-sponsored resolution demanding documentation related to the decision from being reported out of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee yesterday.

Indeed, the WH announcement yesterday that they would reinstate the prevailing wage protection came on the same day that pro-labor Rep. Steve LaTourette (R-OH) was to bring a measure before the transportation panel that would have had the president hand over to the House "information in his possession relating to contracts for services or construction related to Hurricane Katrina."

Facing likely committee passage and subsequent floor action, the administration reversed its decision, headed off the resolution and spared moderate GOPers on the transportation committee from having to make a choice between their president and their friends in labor.

Posted 10.27.05 03:48 PM | Comments (2)

New Old Short Lists

Here's the scuttle:

Sources say that Judge Priscilla Owen of the 5th circuit, Judge Michael McConnell of the , J. Harvie Wilkinson of the 4th circuit, Judge Edith Jones of the 5th circuit and Judge Edith Clement of the 5th circuit and Judge Karen Williams of the 4th circuit had interviews with Bush. Alice Batchelder was also reportedly vetted, though some Republicans in Michigan expressed discomfort with her for reasons unrelated to her jurisprudence.

A Republican ally of the White House lists these names: "Luttig, Alito, Owen, McConnell, Wiliams. JR Brown."

The AP's list includes Judge Sam Alito of the 3rd circuit, Judge Emilio Garza of the 5th circuit, A.G. Alberto Gonzales, Jones, Judge Michael Luttig of the 4th circuit, McConnell, Ex-SG Ted Olson, Thompson, Wilkinson, Owen, Miguel Estrada, Clement, Judge Janice Rogers Brown of the DC circuit, Batchelder of the sixth circuit, Williams, Chief Justice Maura Corrigan of the Michigan Supreme Court, DC lawyer Maureen Mahoney.

National Review's Adler has Williams, Batchelder, Sykes, Corrigan, Alito, Olson, McConnell, Judge Consuelo Callahan, Justice Raoul Cantero of Fla, Judge Jeff Sutton of the 6th circuit and Mahoney.

Real Clear Politics has its own short list.

National Review's Lopez: "For the second time in two weeks someone serious has said the name "Chris Cox" for Scotus to me."

Posted 10.27.05 02:00 PM | Comments (6)

Miers: The Back Story

More reporting from today's Hotline:
One Bush aide acknowledged that Miers vetting had been rushed and left out much of what's been discovered by the press since the announcement. Senior admin. officials were slow to more widely distribute what information it did have, leaving officials tasked with selling her nomination in the dark. Other WH officials and even some of her supporters did not evince confidence when publicly discussing her qualifications. But Miers was upbeat and had privately indicated to White House officials that she was willing to stick to her guns through the hearings. One White House official working on her confirmation: "Did she have the votes in the Senate today? Yes. Would she have the votes after a hearing where it didn't matter how well prepared she was -- her inability to talk about, answer questions, that we knew would be asked (led the White House) question whether it would stay that way." [MARC AMBINDER]

Conservative allies suggest that Bush allowed himself to get boxed into picking a woman. His first choices were not available. And he became convinced that the best alternative to ensure that his worldview was represented on the court was to pick Miers. One adviser says that Bush and WH CoS Andrew Card miscalculated. Another adviser who worked with the WH: "If she knew she could have done well in the hearings I imagine she would've stuck it out." Another close Bush adviser: "Publicly, they are going to say it is over protecting executive privilege. Privately, you have an accomplished woman who probably isn't going to do well in the hearing, so why put her through that?" Another GOPer close to the WH: "It became clear that the only way for her to show [her fitness] would be to reveal things that were privileged." Some GOPers wondered why Bush never anticipated that naming its counsel would require the WH to draw a red line on internal documents. A White House aide: "I don't think anyone anticipated the increased pressure on the need for documents based on her lack of record on constitutional issues."

Posted 10.27.05 01:23 PM | Comments (0)

A Miers Tick-Tock

Original reporting from today's Hotline:
"The tipping point came within the past several days. GOP Senators privately communicated to WH CoS Andy Card that unless they had access to hard evidence that Miers was conversant in constitutional issues, there was no way she would be confirmed. Her performance in private meetings was weak, at best, these senators told Card. Throughout the day yesterday, says a senior Senate aide, there were "conversations throughout the day at the staff level." Late yesterday, Senate Maj. Leader Bill Frist (R-TN) called Card and told him in no uncertain terms that Miers would probably not be confirmed. An aide: "He provided frank assessment of situation in the Senate. [The] lay of land on committee." After that call, according to White House sources, Bush and Card met privately with Miers, and they decided jointly that preserving WH privilege on documents was too important a principle to risk. Miers officially informed Bush at 8:30 pm ET. As late as 8 p.m., one White House aide said the WH counsel's office was rushing to finish a revision to the Senate Judiciary Committee questionnaire. (It arrived after 11:00 pm ET). Word began to spread through conservative Washington last night. The White House office of political affairs notified allies at about 8:30 a.m ET this morning but swore them to secrecy until the White House released the President's statement. [MARC AMBINDER]

Posted 10.27.05 01:14 PM | Comments (0)

Just For Fun

Harriet Miers' revised questionnaire, courtesy of SCOTUSblog.

Posted 10.27.05 12:48 PM | Comments (0)

A Withdrawal Timeline

From today's Hotline:

Below are the major developments over the past weeks that, bit by bit, helped derail the Miers nomination:

-- 10/3: National Review writer David Frum is one of the first to oppose the Miers nomination, calling it "an unforced error" on his blog (NRO, 10/3).

-- 10/3: Contributors to ConfirmThem.com, a 527/blog designed to drum up support for President Bush's judicial nominees largely turn against her, and it soon becomes a clearinghouse of mostly anti-Miers sentiment.

-- 10/3: Rush Limbaugh sharply questions VP Dick Cheney on his show about Miers, and expresses skepticism towards the nomination. Conservative talker Laura Ingraham also opposes her nomination, and Sean Hannity is notably lukewarm about Miers.

-- 10/5: Columnist George Will, writes piece titled "Can This Nomination Be Justified?" In it he argues "it is not important that she be confirmed" and "it might be very important that she not be."

-- 10/11: Miers tells Bush in a '97 birthday card that he was "the best governor ever -- deserving of great respect!" In another personal note to Bush, "she hoped" that Jenna and Barbara "recognize their parents are cool" and that Texas "was blessed" with him as governor.

MORE

-- 10/13: '90 transcript suggests that Miers was uncomfortable with the Federalist Society but not with the NAACP

-- 10/17: Miers confuses Specter, suggesting she supports Griswold; issues statement later saying Specter misunderstood her

-- 10/17: Wall Street Journal's John Fund reports on a conference call with social conservatives where two colleagues of Miers said they believed she would vote to overturn Roe v. Wade

-- 10/19: In '89 Miers endorsed a constitutional amendment banning abortion during her run for Dallas City Council. This prompts previously neutral liberal interest groups to forcefully speak out against her confirmation.

-- 10/21: Columnist Charles Krauthammer calls for the Bush admin. to find "a way out" over "irreconcilable differences over documents" -- which is the primary reason the WH cited in her withdrawal.

-- 10/24: Miers apparently further "aggravates" Specter after she claims he misunderstood her over the Griswold decision in a meeting. A source close to Specter said he "is now very, very, very unhappy" (TIME, 10/24).

-- 10/24: Two websites by groups of anti-Miers conservatives, BetterJustice.org and WithdrawMiers.org are launched. BetterJustice.org runs an anti-Miers advertisement on FNC and conservative talk shows.

-- 10/26: Two '93 speeches by Miers endorsing self-determination as a principle in matters such as abortion were released, upsetting conservatives

-- 10/26: Concerned Women for America officially oppposes Miers' confirmation.

-- 10/26: Federalist Society VP Leonard Leo "suddenly quit" his lobbying effort for Miers to return to "his full-time job." Several Fed. Society members who know Leo said he is "only backing" Miers out of "loyalty to the Bush administration rather than support on the merits" (Washington Times, 10/27).

Posted 10.27.05 12:17 PM | Comments (2)

McConnell Back In?

One name we're hearing a lot this morning (including from a White House official) is appeals court judge Michael McConnell, who is based in Utah.

And a White House official tells the Hotline that Bush will not nominate anyone today but would not rule out tomorrow.

Another Republican said he hopes Bush nominates a staunch conservative in time for VA Gov voters to notice...

Posted 10.27.05 10:53 AM | Comments (0)

Nominee Take Two: Very Soon

There'll be more in today's Hotline, but White House advisers say that the President will nominate a new replacement for O'Connor as early as late today or tomorrow, and by the middle of next week at the latest. [MARC AMBINDER]

Posted 10.27.05 09:43 AM | Comments (0)

No Fitz Announcement Today

Prosecutor Patrick Fitzgerald's spokesman is telling reporters that there will be no announcement today.

Also -- Bill Beutler is keeping a close watch on the blogs. (Nothing from the "Harriet Miers" blog just yet. See today's Hotline for a complete wrap of the morning's news, along with original reporting on just what the heck happened.

Posted 10.27.05 09:35 AM | Comments (0)

Miers Withdraws

Miers: "The confirmation process presents a burden for the White House and our staff and is not in the best interest for our country."

Here's what Bush says: "Today, I have reluctantly accepted Harriet Miers' decision to withdraw her nomination to the Supreme Court of the United States."

"I nominated Harriet Miers to the Supreme Court because of her extraordinary legal experience, her character, and her conservative judicial philosophy. Throughout her career, she has gained the respect and admiration of her fellow attorneys. She has earned a reputation for fairness and total integrity. She has been a leader and a pioneer in the American legal profession. She has worked in important positions in state and local government and in the bar. And for the last five years, she has served with distinction and honor in critical positions in the Executive Branch."

More Bush:

"I understand and share her concern, however, about the current state of the Supreme Court confirmation process. It is clear that Senators would not be satisfied until they gained access to internal documents concerning advice provided during her tenure at the White House -- disclosures that would undermine a President’s ability to receive candid counsel. Harriet Miers’ decision demonstrates her deep respect for this essential aspect of the Constitutional separation of powers –- and confirms my deep respect and admiration for her."

"I am grateful for Harriet Miers' friendship and devotion to our country. And I am honored that she will continue to serve our Nation as White House Counsel."

My responsibility to fill this vacancy remains. I will do so in a timely manner.

Posted 10.27.05 08:55 AM | Comments (1)

Morning Wonderments

1. Why isn't President Bush getting more flack from his base for the Bernanke appointment?

2. Will Mike McGavick's entrance in the WA Senate race (following last minute, in-person consultations in DC) finally give the NRSC a positive talking point to tout its recruiting efforts?

3. Aside from Tuesday's Cheney/Libby "notes" blockbuster in the New York Times -- clearly a damage prevention leak from one party involved -- will the Washington Post (and reporters Pincus, VandeHei, Leonning) get the credit they deserve for behing ahead of the curve on the Plame investigation story?

4. Will GOPers and Dems stop asking if Raw Story's scoops are true?

5. Why did the WH cave so quickly on Davis-Bacon?

6. What's this we hear about the President's plans to devote his SOTU to health care, immigration/border security and propose major tax reform? [MARC AMBINDER]

Posted 10.27.05 08:47 AM | Comments (1)

October 26, 2005

Evening Buzz, Buzz

From his hospital bed, Steve Clemons (whose bona fides were endorsed by Howard Fineman) updates his post. Indictment targets notified. Presser 10/27 or 10/28.

From the Los Angeles Times: "One grand juror was overheard telling another juror, 'See you Friday,' suggesting the possibility that the grand jury would continue to meet up to the last minute."

The Washington Post's Jim VandeHei, who has some of the best sources in Washington, hinted on Hardball that Fitzgerald's meeting with Hogan today did not involve extending the grand jury.

And Time's Mike Allen, who also has some of the best sources in Washington, strongly hinted that WH folks had been indicted, and that we'd learn about them soon.

BTW: the Senate Judiciary Committee has yet to receive its updated questionnaire from nominee Harriet Miers We're told it'll get to them around 11 p.m. ET. Said NY Sen. Chuck Schumer in a statement at 8:45 pm: "This is another in a series of disappointments. The Miers nomination is suffering from a serious bout of delay, distraction, and disorganization and needs a dramatic turnaround."

Posted 10.26.05 08:22 PM | Comments (15)

Two AP Ledes

Lede One. "Rep. Tom DeLay failed to comply with House requirements that he disclose all contributions to a defense fund that pays his legal bills, the Texas Republican acknowledged to House officials."

That makes it sound like DeLay was caught doing something naughty.

Lede two: "Rep. Tom DeLay has notified House officials that he failed to disclose all contributions to his legal defense fund as required by congressional rules."

That makes it sound like DeLay discovered his error and pre-emptively notified "House officials" about it.

Which is what apparently happened.

Posted 10.26.05 06:12 PM | Comments (1)

Chafee Looks Out For #1

CongressDailyPM reports that the Senate GOP's attempt to increase domestic oil production through building new refineries was defeated 9-9 in the Environment and Public Works committee as Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R-RI) voted with Dems and ranking member James Jeffords (I-VT).

We'll see if Chafee, facing a tough re-election fight (including a primary challenge from Cranston Mayor Stephen Laffey), can effectively use his image as an outsider within the GOP to stave off his Dem opponents, who will certainly try and tie him to the Bush admin, in this decidedly blue state. {REID WILSON]

With Bush's approval ratings in the tank (25% approve, 72% disapprove in RI, according to a 9/05 Brown University poll), any opportunity Chafee has to distance himself from the WH is a boost to his re-election chances.

It is interesting to watch the NRSC, which has already taken out close to $150K in ads attacking fellow GOPer Laffey, defend a Senator who surely causes other members of his caucus some serious heartburn. Even without the attacks, Chafee, Laffey and the two Dems -- ex-AG Sheldon Whitehouse and Sec/State Matt Brown -- are raising enough money to make the race very expensive. According to 3rd quarter FEC reports, Whitehouse leads with $1.4M CoH, followed by Chafee at almost $1.3M. Brown and Laffey hover near $600K. Both Whitehouse and Laffey have written substantial checks to themselves.

According to the same Brown University poll, Chafee and Whitehouse lead their respective primaries and Chafee leads each Democrat (38-25 against Whitehouse, 41-18 against Brown).

Posted 10.26.05 04:07 PM | Comments (0)

IA GOP Jibes "Traveling Tom"

It's the first of many websites like this. The Iowa Republican Party tweaks the national political ambitions of Gov. Tom Vilsack (D) in a new website launched today.

TravelingTom.com accuses Vilsack of ignoring Iowa's economy while galivanting across the country collecting cash for a presidential bid.

By our count, Vilsack has visited MA, NJ, NY, CO, GA, CA and -- yes -- NH within the past year. He's also been to DC numerous times, most recently for DLC/DGA fundraisers. [MARC AMBINDER]

Posted 10.26.05 02:19 PM | Comments (0)

Specter Asks More Questions Of Miers

Sen. Judiciary Cmte. chair Arlen Specter (R-PA) asked Supreme Court nominee Harriet Miers on Monday to detail her views on governments' powers in wartime, writing in a letter that such answers are critical because of her close relationship with the President.

The Cmte. released the letter today.

Among the questions:

"Are their any limitations as to how long detainees may be held for the purposes identified by the government?"

"What jurisprudential considerations are involved on the constitutional authority of the President to detain alients outside United States borders contrasted with the constitutional authority of Federal courts to grant habeas corpus?"

"Was the Korean conflict a war which should have, as a matter of constitutional law, required a declaration of war by Congress?"

"Without inquiring in any concerning the advice you have given the President because of the doctrine of Executive Privilege, what standard should you apply, if confirmed, in recusing yourself on any subject where you have advised the President?"

Posted 10.26.05 01:56 PM | Comments (1)

WH/Davis Bacon

Josh Marshall has a one-sentence tease on his blog: "White House to fold on Davis-Bacon?"

Yes. On 11/8.

According to several sources, including an administration official, a group of GOP lawmakers has conveyed to the White House their concern about the ongoing suspension of Davis-Bacon "prevailing wage" rules in the gulf coast region.

Those lawmakers hinted to the White House that they would sign on to Democratic efforts to overturn the suspension unless the White House agreed to reinstate the rule by the end of the year. Lawmakers met this morning at the White House with Chief of Staff Andrew Card. Today, the White House capitulated.

Many of the lawmakers have ties to labor; others say that there's no evidence that the suspension has helped to lower costs.

An official announcement is forthcoming from the Department of Labor.[MARC AMBINDER]

Posted 10.26.05 01:45 PM | Comments (4)

Can You Raise $$ On Indictment Island?

That's the subject of today's Hotline spotlight.

Here's a brief excerpt: "It speaks volumes when a VA GOPer would rather appear with Rudy Giuliani than Pres. Bush. But that's exactly what Jerry Kilgore is doing this week, welcoming the liberal NYer (see TrashGate '99) to Norfolk today while avoiding Bush's visit to the same town 10/28. But more broadly, we ask, what becomes of the GOP's fundraising machine if (say it with us now, "and that's a big if") two top 'raisers (Cheney/Rove) join a third moneyman, Tom DeLay, on Indictment Island? Cheney, who has headlined 13 fundraisers for House incumbents in '05, appears likely to avoid such a fate, but we can't imagine a potential "unindicted co-conspirator" would be embraced in swing districts next fall. Just ask Al Gore."

Below, see our list of the 13 House members Cheney has helped. (He'll be up to 16 by the end of the week.) And check out Chris Cillizza's list of Rove fundraisers on The Fix.

IN-09 28-Mar-05 Sodrel Jeffersonville, IN

PA-08 28-Mar-05 Fitzpatrick Philadelphia, PA

NM-01 6-Apr-05 Wilson Albuquerque, NM

AZ-01 6-Apr-05 Renzi Phoenix, AZ

CO-09 9-Apr-05 Musgrave Denver, CO

AL-03 13-Apr-05 Rogers Auburn, AL

LA-07 13-Apr-05 Boustany Lafayette, LA

WA-08 6-Jun-05 Reichert Seattle, WA

PA-18 25-Jul-05 Murphy Pittsburgh, PA

NY-13 25-Jul-05 Fossella New York, NY

NV-03 24-Oct-05 Porter Las Vegas, NV

CO-07 24-Oct-05 RICK O'DONNELL Denver, CO

Posted 10.26.05 01:29 PM | Comments (0)

Dubie Says No to VT Sen Race

Hot off the presses: VT. Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie (R) says "I plan to continue serving as Vermont's Lt. Governor."

More Dubie: "First, I considered my commitment to making Vermont a state where Vermonters can live in safety and security, where our children can receive a good education and where they can find a good job, without leaving their home state. I believe I can do most to honor this commitment by continuing to serve as Lt. Governor."

Second, I have concluded that in light of my responsibilities as a father and husband, it would be very difficult for me to campaign for the US Senate, to serve as Lt. Governor, and to be the father that I want to be -- all at the same time."

Is Dubie's denial another NRSC recruiting failure? That depends. Many Republicans in DC believe that VT Gov. Jim Douglas (R) is the only Republican who'd have a real chance at beating Indepdendent Bernie Sanders in the general. Douglas refused that race a while ago. So Senate GOPers tried to get Dubie in the race (as did WH CoS Andy Card.) Other VT GOPers want Dubie to run for Sanders' house seat, but that prospect is unlikely.

Dubie's departure means that wealthy software magnate Richard Tarrant will likely get the GOP nomination. In early Oct., he wrote a $550K check to an exploratory account. [MARC AMBINDER]

Posted 10.26.05 10:43 AM | Comments (3)

Oh By The Way

NBC News reminds us that Miers' revised questionnaire is due to the Senate Judiciary Committee today.

Posted 10.26.05 09:06 AM | Comments (0)

Fitzgerald In The House

Special prosecutor Patrick Fitzgerald is at work this morning. And the grand jury commences at 9:00 a.m.

The buzz enamanating from the White House and from Republicans this morning is softer than last night, when the internal scuttlebutt was that a major White House figure -- perhaps in the Vice President's office -- had been notified about a pending indictment.

A sign of the times: indictment talk was the currency of conversation last night at the Republican National Committee fundraiser. [MARC AMBINDER]

Posted 10.26.05 09:01 AM | Comments (0)

October 25, 2005

The Evening's News

CBS News reports that indictments are expected tomorrow. So does the Financial Times.

Roll Call's Mary Ann Akers reports that P. Fitzgerald was seen at Patton Boggs LLP today, meeting with Rove's lawyer.

The Los Angeles Times has a scoop that points to one possible outcome.

"As his investigation nears a conclusion, special prosecutor Patrick J. Fitzgerald has returned his attention to White House adviser Karl Rove, interviewing a Rove colleague with detailed questions about contacts that President Bush's close aide had with reporters in the days leading up to the outing of a covert CIA officer."

"Fitzgerald has also dispatched FBI agents to comb the CIA agent's residential neighborhood in Washington, asking neighbors again whether they were aware -- before her name appeared in a syndicated column -- that the agent, Valerie Plame, worked for the CIA."

And Reuters interviews one of the neighbors.

The blogs are buzzing with posts from un-named insiders that at least two folks have been sent target letters. Or that Fitzgerald will seek an extension.

Posted 10.25.05 08:15 PM | Comments (2)

Card Cancels WI Fundraiser Tonight

WH CoS Andy Card cancelled a planned appearance tonight at a fundraiser for the WI GOP in Milwaukee. WH Pol. Dir. Sara Taylor will fill in.

Posted 10.25.05 05:34 PM | Comments (0)

SpecINT

Democrat Steve Clemons is smart and has good Washington sources.

So check out his inlking of what's to come:

"An uber-insider source has just reported the following to TWN: 1. 1-5 indictments are being issued. The source feels that it will be towards the higher end. 2. The targets of indictment have already received their letters. 3. The indictments will be sealed indictments and "filed" tomorrow. 4. A press conference is being scheduled for Thursday."

Posted 10.25.05 05:01 PM | Comments (0)

Will Bush Mention Miers Tonight?

Not to be overly snarky, but a good signal of whether President Bush is committed to seeing Harriet Miers through the hearings will come tonight when he addresses 250 Republican National Committee donors in Washington.

Will he stand fully behind Miers? Will he mention her by name? What will the donors do?

Republicans say tonight's event will raise more than $1 million for the party. RNC chairman Ken Mehlman will introduce Bush. The evening's entertainment is provided by The Right Touch. And we've been assured they've been fully vetted. [MARC AMBINDER]

UPDATE: Bush did speak of Miers. Here's Mark Silva's take from the pool report: "I've had a chance to name two good people to the US Supreme Court..." He names Roberts, and draws applause. He names Miers, and the hall is silent at first, but after more Miers talk, applause."

"There must be confidentiality in the White House," he says of the Democratic request for documents - that's "the red line," he says.

Posted 10.25.05 04:09 PM | Comments (0)

Rosenthal Forms New Firm

Ex-AFL-CIO political director/ex ACT CEO Steve Rosenthal will soon announce the formation of a new Dem. pol. consulting firm called The Organizing Group along with veteran field strategist Tom Lindenfeld.

Per an e-mail: "The firm will specialize in grassroots voter mobilization for progressive organizations, (a limited number of) candidates and ballot initiatives."

The O.G. will also work with labor unions in states to help strengthen their operations there.

Rosenthal has allies on both sides of the AFL-CIO/CTW split and the O.G. plans to work with unions from both groups. {MARC AMBINDER]

Posted 10.25.05 01:32 PM | Comments (0)

Cheney Knew What, and When?

As y'all know, the New York Times reports today that Cheney and Libby discussed Valerie Plame in June of 2003.

Here's what the Associated Press tacked on to its catch-up story without elaboration:

The VP "has said little in public about what he knew." In September of 2003, he told NBC "he did not know Wilson or who sent him on a trip to Niger to check into intelligence -- later deemed unreliable -- that Iraq may have been seeking to buy uranium there." Cheney: "I don't know who sent Joe Wilson."

So which is it? [MARC AMBINDER]

Posted 10.25.05 10:30 AM | Comments (2)

Frist Out Front On Immigration / Border Security

Fresh from a visit to the Texas border, Sen. Maj. Leader Bill Frist (R-TN) will today announce plans to bring to the floor next February a strong border security bill.

An aide says Frist's own mark will serve as a "base" for the Senate's myriad other immigration reform measures, like Kennedy-McCain, Cornyn-Kyl, and (soon), Hagel-whoever.

Frist writes to his VolPAC list today: "We need comprehensive reform that protects not only our national security ... but the interests of our economy. And by that, I don't mean amnesty. Let me be clear: I oppose amnesty . . . individuals who violate America's laws should NOT be rewarded for illegal behavior."

More: "You have my promise to push for stricter enforcement." [MARC AMBINDER]

Posted 10.25.05 08:43 AM | Comments (0)

October 24, 2005

Hannity Calls Allen The '08 Frontrunner

First the National Journal's Insiders' poll... representing the "insiders' -- and now Sean Hannity, representing "talk radio" -- labels VA Sen. George Allen the frontrunner to win the 2008 GOP presidential nomination.

An important take-away lesson from what you'll read below: ALLEN SPENDS A LOT OF TIME ON CONSERVATIVE TALK RADIO. And that WILL matter, come 2007 and 2008. (It matters now because fundraisers see it. And money in the GOP chases frontrunners...)

Hannity: "As of today, I think you will be the nominee of the Republican Party in 2008...."

A listener writes: "Allen demurred noting that he was running for re-election in 2006, but he did identify three key issues he's focusing on that people have discussed with him in his travels around the country: illegal immigration, judges, and spending. Hannity also tried to talk Allen into picking former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani as his running mate, but Allen wouldn't bite saying there are many excellent people in the Republican Party." [MARC AMBINDER]

Posted 10.24.05 06:12 PM | Comments (0)

Backing Out?

Reports over the weekend suggested that the White House is quietly consulting trusted conservatives about who the President should nominate if Harriett Miers withdraws.

First -- these trusted conservatives somehow leaked word to the untrusted media.

Second -- so far as we can tell, if White House officials -- be they members of the political staff, the counsel's office, the office of strategic initiatives, the press office, or the office of public liaison -- are talking openly about a post-Miers nomination, they are doing it without the authority and approval of senior White House officials.

No doubt the White House has contigency plans. White House officials are aware that the Senate might deny Miers the nomination, in which case Bush has a menu of other, previously vetted choices. But White House officials believe she will be confirmed, and we've not recieved any indication just yet that the President wants to withdraw the nomination before the Senate hearings. [MARC AMBINDER]

Posted 10.24.05 04:41 PM | Comments (0)

Don Evans To Save The Day?

Picture it. After New Hampshire. 2000. A frontrunning candidate gets his gourd handed to him by a "maverick" Sen. from Arizona. He looks at the triumverate -- Karl, Joe, Karen -- and decides he needs to right the ship. So he elevates longtime friend and finance chair Don Evans to be the first among equals. The candidate rolls on through South Carolina and wins the nomination.

If there is turnover in the White House, and if President Bush decides that he needs a trusted enforcer with credibility to get his administration back on track, insiders believe that Evans could be his first choice. In fact, Evans was seen entering the White House in the quiet of a late afternoon last week, and he's has already consulted with top Republican officials on potential damage control.

Evans departure from the administration in late 2004 was voluntarily; his family desperately wanted more time with him. But he's in Washington frequently as pres. of the Financial Services Forum. Evans is beloved by long-time Bushies in the White House, he is respected by Democrats and Republicans on the Hill, and even he maintains solid relations with the media.

If indictments push Rove or Libby out of the White House, and if CoS Andy Card either leaves or replaces John Snow at Treasury, another potential addition to the WH staff (culled from a variety of sources) are ex-RNC chair/nominee sherpa Ed Gillespie, though he has told friends he would not want the job. RNC Chairman Ken Mehlman will probably stay at the committee in part because Republicans believe his most effective influence on the Bush legacy will be a muscular GOP field and political operation in 2006 and 2008.

USTR/Ex-Rep. Rob Portman would be another top candidate. Bush trusts him, and he has solid relationships with most of the key power centers in Washington.

Other names mentioned as potential senior staff replacements: Karen Hughes, Marc Racicot, Clay Johnson, Josh Bolten, Maria Cino, Jim Dyke, Joe Hagin, Terry Nelson, Mark Wallace, Jack Oliver [MARC AMBINDER]

Posted 10.24.05 11:14 AM | Comments (2)

New Fed Chair Nominee?

Treas. Sec. John Snow plans to announce a nominee to replace retiring Fed. Chairman Alan Greenspan at a White House press conference today at 1 p.m, an administration official tells the Hotline. [REID WILSON]

While the nominee was not identified, the official suggested the pick will not be a surprise. Buzz in recent weeks has focused on Ben Bernanke, chair of the President's Council of Economic Advisors and a former Fed board member. Another potential candidate is ex-Bush economic advisor R. Glenn Hubbard.

Posted 10.24.05 09:24 AM | Comments (0)

October 21, 2005

Miers 3.0: Grassroots

Amid reports of acrimonious, depressing conference calls and public silence from purported allies, interest groups aligned with the White House have plans to more actively sell the Miers nomination.

The proximal target is the Republican base. The ultimate targets are Republican Senators. The White House and its friends will publicly tout Miers and her credentials. In less public conversations and through pressure from the base, they hope to convince the Senators of one of several propositions:

(a) that voting against Miers would be parlous for the Republican Party

(b) that voting against Miers conflates conservative elite anger with conservative voter anger, in part because the real GOP base doesn't dislike Miers and would view a "nay" as a slap in the face to the president

(c) that voting against Miers would be parlous for their presidential ambitions, in that the Bush political and fundraising team would not forget such a blatant departure from the president's wishes now -- and certainly not forget after 2006, when these presidential aspirants begin to staff up and raise money.

See below for what specific groups will do. [MARC AMBINDER]

Progress for America spent $10K on an internet banner campaign and has helped to coordinate the endorsements of Texans who support her. PFA has helped surrogates meet with 13 Senate offices; ten Texans are in Washington, D.C. today. Says PFA President Brian McCabe: "We're doing more grassroots than ever before."

Well -- but they haven't spent much of their multi-million dollar kitty. They are no longer on the air with a biographical spot, though there are hints PFA will begin an expensive campaign just before the start of the hearing. (The schedule would conform to what PFA did with John Roberts' nomination.) In the states, PFA and the RNC are working together to make sure base voters keep their relatively positive view of Miers.

The Committee for Justice, was shocked into silence initially -- but it began to send around the latest columns from Miers supporter Ronald Cass, and it will start to do a little more. The program is being pulled together, but it will include events, spokespeople, and, after the hearings, maybe a television ad.

Manny Miranda's Third Branch Conference, of course, is doing nothing because many of its members oppose the Miers nomination.

Posted 10.21.05 02:08 PM | Comments (8)

The '08 Money Chase

The following totals come from the federal accounts that any potential WH '08 candidate still has active. Some are House accounts (Tancredo, Sanford); some are old SEN accounts (Giuliani, Romney); some are old WH accounts (Kerry, Clark, Edwards) and most are current SEN accounts.

The data is derived from FEC filings for the three-month period ending 09/30/05. The column "Total Receipts" (Line 16 on FEC form 3) includes all donations, transfers, cmte money, loans/contribs made by the candidate, and interest earned on the account. The "Individual Contributions" column reflects FEC line 11(a-iii), which only includes money raised from individuals other than the candidate. "PACs" (FEC line 11c) may include money transferred from other candidates' cmtes. "Net Spent" is FEC line 7 (c). For WH accounts, figures are taken from the equivalent lines on the appropriate forms. [QUINN MCCORD]

                   3rdQ    3rdQ         3rdQ
                   Indiv.  Total        Net              Net    Cash
                   Contri. Receipts     Spent    PACs    Debt   On-Hand
Senators Up In '06
Clinton (D-NY)  5,072,392 5,286,487 3,949,511 161,610 796,595 $13.85M
Allen (R-VA)      919,635 1,245,389   702,659 237,980       0 5,513,708
Others
Kerry (D-MA)*   1,125,118 2,433,584 2,584,127       0 -16,552 9,891,663
(Kerry GELAC)           0   321,237   417,880       0  -$139K 5,777,319
Bayh (D-IN)       575,988   729,188    56,258  93,500       0 7,884,645
Dodd (D-CT)             0     1,669    25,608   1,000       0 2,036,927
Giuliani (R-NY)         0    79,971   -27,228       0       0 1,966,777
Biden (D-DE)      294,053   298,599   186,031       0       0 1,332,673
McCain (R-AZ)      22,771    37,520    58,619       0       0 1,070,922
Feingold (D-WI)   270,299   295,595   204,087  15,993       0   665,014
Brownback (R-KS)   23,697    40,961    23,312   9,500       0   595,233
Clark (D-AR)            0    48,246    -1,080       0 260,822   397,406
Tancredo (R-CO)   100,574   103,738    82,460   1,500       0   271,811
Hagel (R-NE)        9,350    12,888    30,737   3,500       0   158,890
Sanford (R-SC)          0     1,156         0       0       0    55,294
Romney (R-MA)           0         0         0       0 $3.104M    20,160
Gore (D-TN)             0         0         0       0   7,953     9,826
(Gore GELAC)            0         0     1,519       0       0   113,630
Edwards (D-NC)          0     5,958    13,678       0 201,158     3,379
Frist (R-TN)            0    72,017     5,492       0       0         0
* Based on SEN and WH accounts combined

If They Can't Help Themselves, At Least They Can Help Others
The following reflects the status of candidates' federal leadership PACs, as of the most recent date known.

                                             Date of          Cash
                  PAC                        Last Filing      On-Hand
Frist             Volunteer PAC                 6/30          1,128,438
Bayh              All America PAC               6/30          1,087,968
Daschle (D-SD)    New Leadership for America    6/30            545,264
Kerry             Keeping America's Promise     6/30            384,772
Giuliani          Solutions America             9/30            358,832
Dodd              CHRIS PAC                     6/30            256,168
Allen             Good Gov't for America        6/30            218,143
Barbour (R-MS)    Haley's PAC                   8/31            134,374
Feingold          Progressive Patriots Fund     8/31            129,613
Hagel             Sandhills PAC                 9/30            126,149
Clark             WESPAC                        6/30             97,095
Edwards           One America Committee         6/30             59,455
Clinton           HILL PAC                      8/31             55,046
Brownback         Restore America               6/30             54,960
Biden             Unite Our States              6/30             27,046
Pataki (R-NY)     21st Century Freedom PAC      9/30             20,331
Gore              Leadership '02                6/30             10,394
Romney            Commonwealth PAC              6/30              8,066
Richardson (D-NM) Moving America Forward        6/30              7,542
Warner (D-VA)     Forward Together              7/6                   0
McCain            Straight Talk America         7/15                  0

Posted 10.21.05 12:34 PM | Comments (6)

Hotline Preview

We're reading the green tea leaves today as we tally up all the '08 hopefuls' campaign cttes, PACs and other accounts. Barely a weekend goes by where Bayh's not raising money. Plus -- just how well does DeLay's legal and communications teams work together? Card cancels a fundraiser, but Cheney does two of them. And Miers 1.0 and 2.0 are already outmoded. Version 3.0 seems to be: murder boards, murder boards, murder boards.

Posted 10.21.05 11:30 AM | Comments (0)

Senate Campaign Ctte Filings

The Democrats' Senate campaign arm once again outraised its Republican counterpart this quarter.

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee brought in $8.7 million since the end of May. But the DS also outspent the National Republican Senatorial Committee, reporting nearly $5 million in disbursements. The DS started the quarter with $15.9 million on hand and ends it with $19 million.

The NRSC raised $7.3 million and ended the quarter with $9.4 million, having spent about $3.2 million. They've accumulated more than $28.2 million since the beginning of the year. The DSCC has raised more than $32 million.

Posted 10.21.05 10:15 AM | Comments (0)

October 20, 2005

House Campaign Ctte Filings

The National Republican Campaign Committee maintained the bigger bank account this quarter, ending the fundraising period with $17.7 million. It raised $12.6 million.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee took in $9 million, spent some, and ended the quarter with $11.3 million on hand.

Said the NRCC's Carl Forti in a press release, "With double the cash sitting in the bank at this point compared to the 2004 cycle, House Republicans remain well ahead of their Democrat counterparts in the money race one year from Election Day."

"This is the best off-year we've ever had," says Bill Burton, the D-Trip's communications director. "In fact, we right now have raised more money in the first 9 months of the year than we did in all of 2003."

It's also worth noting, as The Hill did earlier this week, that the Dems Frontline program outraised the NRCC's ROMP. [MARC AMBINDER]

Posted 10.20.05 06:03 PM | Comments (0)

Gregg Wins Powerball

Sen. Judd Gregg (R-NH) was one of 47 winners of the multi-state Powerball lottery, netting him a cool $850K before taxes.

"Isn't there some saying about how being budget chair is like winning the lottery? Guess this time its true," his spokesperson, Erin Rath, tells the Hotline.

Jokes abound. Could he use the money to help pay off the bridge to nowhere?

And a Democrat wag adds: why does the chair of the Senate budget committee feel compelled to play the lottery? Not confident in the direction of the economy?

Posted 10.20.05 04:10 PM | Comments (0)

Kevin Madden Is A Genius

For somehow making a mugshot not look like a mugshot. (We know he had nothing to do with it, but, well, he's a useful proxy for the DeLay communications operation.)

Posted 10.20.05 03:27 PM | Comments (5)

Coming To The "For"

Earlier this afternoon the House GOP held the first meet-and-greet session with conservative political bloggers, which they dubbed "Blogger Row." While the main reason for the event was conservative angst over congressional spending, the freewheeling conversation naturally drifted, and naturally toward angst over the Harriet Miers nomination. [WILLIAM BEUTLER]

Although all GOP reps. queried on Miers' nod supported her confirmation, they didn't all respond the same way, just as they haven't responded the same in general. Rep. Trent Franks (R-AZ) quickly told the half-dozen bloggers assembled: "I think she will surprise conservatives" and be a solid conservative vote. Although the House has no constitutional role in confirming judges, Franks said he had made her confirmation his office's "number one priority."

On the other hand, there's Rep. Louie Gohmert, whose stated support for Miers was complicated by his slow, carefully-worded sentences, thinking through every word. Interestingly, Gohmert himself was a Texas judge, appointed to the state appeals court by Gov. Rick Perry, before winning his seat last year.

Check out tomorrow's Blogometer for a full report.

Posted 10.20.05 03:27 PM | Comments (0)

IA/NH Dates Set?

From today's Hotline:

Some members of the DNC Primary Calendar Commission plan to circulate a formal proposal guarding IA and NH's first-in-the-nation stati and add two-to-four caucuses eight days after Iowa, according to commission members. The plan was developed in light of the commission's vote in Oct. to add at least two states to the "pre-window," when IA and NH have traditionally held their caucus and primary. One draft of the plan calls for IA to hold its precinct caucuses on Jan. 14 and for NH to hold its primary on Jan. 29. On Jan. 22, eight days after Iowa, several states would hold caucuses. The plan would also keep the seven days after NH free of events. [MARC AMBINDER and CHUCK TODD]

The slate of states that would be permitted to hold caucuses on 1/22 is not set in stone. One member said that SC and AR would almost certainly be invited to do so, and that the DNC would chose one of two others: NV and CO. But Democratic officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity, say that a combination of several other states, including NM, MS, AL, LA and DE, might also be allowed to hold events that day or elsewhere within the pre-window. Those 10 states come from a list Commission member Ed Turlington circulated at the last meeting. Each has less than 5M residents, which permits retail politicking, and each has a minority population that equals 15% or more.

Commission members familiar with the plan like it because it observes the state laws of IA and NH: IA, by preserving eight event-free days after the caucuses; New Hampshire's, by not permitting a party-run "firehouse primary" or a state-run primary. Turlington says he has not seen the plan on paper or had it formally proposed to him but when read the outlines this a.m he said, ""what you quoted to me...that would accomplish many of the goals I support," including diversity and respect for IA's status. NH Dem Chair Kathy Sullivan: "It's an interesting proposal. I think that we'll see what happens. I like the idea that we do need to respect the tradition of both Iowa and New Hampshrie and the grassroots tradition." MI DNC member Debbie Dingell: "That's just one of many proposals out there. I do not think that Iowa and New Hampshire will be the only states going first."

Another calendar being discussed informally would schedule the Iowa caucus for Jan. 14, schedule the NH primary for Jan. 22, and then schedule several caucuses or primaries on the 29th -- or maybe even caucuses on the 22 with NH. The window for other states would open on Feb. 5.

In interviews, commission officials stressed that no consensus had been reached beyond what had been agreed to in Oct. Rep. David Price (D-NC), the commission chair, in an interview with The Hotline: "There are lots of people who have proposals. Some in writing, some that have been floating in discussion." Price said the commission was discussing ways to structure the December meeting to allow the commission to come to a conclusion on the schedule. "The challenge is going to be -- do we set specific dates for the [two to four additional] contests?" Price: "My guess is, this will probably be a mix of primaries and caucuses. Some will occur between the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire." Dem strategist Steve Murphy, also on the commission: "I don't think there is any consensus on the commission for naming the states." A Dem official: "There's nothing that lays out how specific the recommendations may be. Do we set specific states? Do we set the sequence of states?" Other members have suggested privately that the commission recommend events based on a category. One caucus could be held in a state with a big African American population; another out West; another, in a state with a large Latino population, and another in a state with a big manufacturing sector."

Read the two proposals, ex-SC Dem. chair/comm. member Joe Erwin said "It does seem to suggest that the frontloading would still be an issue. And I think that would be a source of concern for many, including me." Other commission members worry about frontloading as well. The DNC has limited control over when other states schedule their primaries and caucuses after the formal window opens. DNC vet. Harold Ickes has proposed incentivizing states to hold later events by giving them bonus delegates.

The commission meets in DC on Dec. 10. DNC chair Howard Dean is expected to weigh on the nomination commission's reccomendations after they are submitted. The nomination calendar report will be forwarded to the party's rules and bylaws commission for a final vote. Several delegations have hinted that if they do not get what they want out of the commission, they will lobby the rules and bylaws committee. A Dem. official: "This is the first step in a journey of a thousand miles" (Hotline reporting, 10/20).

Posted 10.20.05 01:46 PM | Comments (2)

Standing By Bush

Not every Republican with national political aspirations is damning the President. And yet..

"I'd stand with President Bush if his approval rating was 2 percent," [MN Gov. Tim] Pawlenty said. "I won't abandon my leader just because times are tough." From today's Star-Tribune.

Posted 10.20.05 12:11 PM | Comments (0)

Mugshot

In nationalized midterm elections, images matter. (Remember the juxtaposition of Sen. Max Cleland and Osama Bin Laden?)

Republicans in Congress -- even those who love and respect Rep. Tom DeLay -- realize that his appearance before a judge tomorrow in Texas will be accompanied by the standard accoutrements of criminal procedure, including a mug shot.

Even if DeLay is acquitted, it will be hard for Republicans to stomach the mug shot and it will be harder for Democrats not to overuse the picture in campaigns.

So the damage to DeLay's chances are re-assuming the post of majority leader are, in the eyes of even some of his allies, not too high. [MARC AMBINDER]

Posted 10.20.05 11:31 AM | Comments (0)

Complete Senate FEC Numbers

Here's an updated summary of the '06 Senate candidate campaigns' third quarter filing to the Federal Election Commission. [QUINN MCCORD]

Posted 10.20.05 11:28 AM | Comments (0)

Hotline Preview...

And the wait goes on and on and on and on... though enquiring minds want to know whether or not the person "directly familar" with what Karl Rove saw during his grand jury testimony shares a brain with some guy in the WH sporting the title of dep. WH CoS? But we digress...

Today's "Spotlight" contains some potential news: the likely dates for the 2008 IA Caucus and NH Primary. As the DNC primary calendar commission debates its final recommendation for the 2008 calendar, word is leaking out about format and dates and we've got the scoop.

Also of note: Anyone else noticing how convenient the timing is for the Bush trip to CA just as Arnold needs a way to act all hot-and-bothered about the nat'l GOP? ... Why isn't their a hard money account that Bill Frist actively raises money to? ... All this and our usual smorgasbord of '05 and '06 updates coming in about an hour. [CHUCK TODD]

Posted 10.20.05 10:31 AM | Comments (1)

October 19, 2005

Cracking Up Is Hard To Do

Maybe it's just the alliteration, but "conservative crack-up" is one of those phrases that makes a comeback whenever the GOP falls on hard times -- and if you follow the online chatter, it's not hard to think its ubiquitous among armchair liberal commentators. But is it more common than it used to be? [WILLIAM BEUTLER]

Apparently not. We did searched through American newspapers and wire services in the Nexis database to see who was using it and when: we count 48 times since its apparent coinage, by American Spectator editor Bob Tyrrell, in early 1987. But it didn't catch on until he published a book of the same name in 1992 -- perhaps anticipating Bush 41's loss to Bill Clinton. During the GOP's out years of the 1990s, "conservative crack-up" enjoyed some currency in publications that today we'd call the MSM.

But it was only used once during the year before the 1994 Republican Revolution, twice the next year, and then not again until after Clinton-Gore dispatched Dole-Kemp in '96. It enjoyed relative popularity in 1997 and 2000, owing to memorable uses on the cover of the Weekly Standard, and in an op-ed by Heritage's Edwin Feulner, respectively. But then it fell off the face of the Earth, not to return until the Terri Schiavo debacle of early 2005.

"Conservative crack-up," then, seems to have been a catchphrase of conservative self-flagellation rather than lefty taunts. But maybe that's changing.

Posted 10.19.05 05:12 PM | Comments (0)

Jeff Gannon, Author

Columnist/ex-Talon news reporter/man about town Jeff Gannon can soon add "author" to his list of titles.

"It is the book that so many have urged me to write for many months now," he says in an e-mail to us. But he wouldn't divulge any other details. The title "has yet to be determined."

"I'm working on the content right now," he says. "I'm sure there are people who had hoped I'd never write about this."

So when Wonkette's "Dog Days" comes out in January, we'll have two books for our bedtable... [MARC AMBINDER]

By the way -- here's how Amazon describes Ana Marie Cox's book.

"It's August in Washington, D.C., in an election year. The Democratic convention has just concluded; the Republican convention is just a few weeks away. The weather is hot and hazy, people leave work a little earlier, and they drink a little more. A town that often seems ridiculously reminiscent of high school now starts to feel more like summer camp. And the life of twenty-eight-year-old campaign staffer Melanie Thorton is about to veer wildly off course. "

"Melanie has the job of her dreams and the (married) man of her dreams. She's helping to run the communications outfit of Democrat John Hillman's presidential campaign and she's having a romance with Washington's most powerful political journalist, Rick Stossel. In one of life's unhappy coincidences, a group called Citizens for Clear Heads emerges out of nowhere with scandalous information about her candidate at the same time as The Washington Post's gossip columnist begins calling her friends to try to sniff out details of her affair. "

"When her world starts to fall apart, Melanie finds herself willing to sacrifice all of her long-held ideals to keep it together. When it falls apart anyway, she has to find a way to make her own life meaningful and leave the fate of the free world to someone else."

"Dog Days is a wry and sexy story of the young movers and shakers in D.C.-the most engaging, idealistic, cynical, cutthroat, and hilarious characters you'd ever want to sit next to at a dinner party-from a stylish new comic voice who knows her turf inside out."

Posted 10.19.05 04:01 PM | Comments (1)

When Blogs Attack

When we saw this blog post asserting that VA Gov. Mark Warner was finished campaigning for candidate Tim Kaine, we did not make too much of it. After all Warner just on the campaign trail with Kainein NoVA on Monday and the two are slated to join forces again tomorrow in SW VA. But when some GOP officials started circulating the post to the media, we thought we'd check it out.

"Nothing could be further from the truth," says Warner political adviser Mame Reiley. She said that Warner is with Kaine "lock, stock and barrel" and that Warner had actually recently asked his staff to "carve out some more time" on his schedule so that he can spend more time with his preferred successor.

So why this rumor? Because GOPers are "petrified at [Warner's] impact on the race," says Reiley. [JONATHAN MARTIN]

Posted 10.19.05 03:21 PM | Comments (0)

Conspiracy Theories

Some Democrats off the Hill were taken by surprise when the House suddenly recessed this afternoon. Leaders were headed to the White House. Could it be a signal that bad news was looming?

Probably not -- the meeting was added to schedules this morning, and it's billed by sources as a summit where Bush will talk with them about Miers, Katrina, budgets, and more. And if you think about it, when was the last time when Bush met with his Congressional leadership team?

Posted 10.19.05 02:34 PM | Comments (0)

The Full Diageo/Hotline Numbers

Check out the dope sheet at the Diageo/Hotline poll website.

Posted 10.19.05 01:42 PM | Comments (1)

The F List, Updated

Here's a list of folks who have either testified or have been interviewed by Patrick Fitzgerald. To repeat: the list below is of those who have been interviewed by officials in connection with the case. Inclusion does not necessarily indicate that the listed person has testified under oath.

Posted 10.19.05 01:17 PM | Comments (0)

Diageo/Hotline's National Numbers

From today's Hotline:
Corruption is a word on everyone's minds today The nat'l component of the Diageo/Hotline poll (conducted by Financial Dynamics) shows that the immediate effects are apparent, but the '06 effects are not.
-- Asked which is more likely to be corrupt, a plurality (24%) said fed elected officials (i.e. Congress), trailed by appointeds (20%), local officials (18%) and state officials (13%). While that is not shocking, consider - when the question is asked with Wall Street vs. Congress, GOPers say Wall Street (40%) whereas Dems say Congress.
-- DeLay's FAV rating is 15% overall, compared to a 44% UNFAV. Even among GOPers, he has a net negative rating by 2%.
-- Despite the low approval job rating of Congress (29%), 31% will still re-elect their member of Congress, whereas 28% would consider change and only 19% will vote to replace. Could the outcome of Fitzgerald's probe combined with the ongoing Abramoff mess start to erode this "what about your own member of Congress" opinion?

Full dope sheet coming later.

Posted 10.19.05 12:24 PM | Comments (0)

October 18, 2005

The Hull Family Chronicles

The Hull family of Illinois has an instinct for generating interesting copy about money.

Our attention was drawn recently to a mini-kerfluffle in Rhode Island. Jennifer Lawless, a Brown assist prof. who is challenging Rep. James Langevin in the Dem primary, received campaign contributions from two of her students.

One of them is Courtney Hull, class of 2006, son of Blair Hull, who ran unsuccesfully for Senate from IL in '04. We're not bringing her father into this... Hull did, telling a reporter that her father came to class and found Lawless "awesome."

What makes this story more fun for us is that the intrepid reporter who scoured the FEC files to break it is the Brown Daily Herald's Ben Leubsdorf, son of Dallas Morning News ace Carl Leubsdorf. [MARC AMBINDER]

Posted 10.18.05 09:12 PM | Comments (1)

The F List

From today's Hotline:

Here's a list of folks who have either testified or have been interviewed by Patrick Fitzgerald (or by FBI agents) in connection with the Plame probe. Please send us omissions and additions and expansions. Anonymity is guaranteed. To repeat: the list below is of those who have been interviewed by officials in connection with the case. Inclusion does not necessarily indicate that the listed person has testified under oath.

• Bush: Early Summer, 2004 (did not testify under oath)
• Cheney: Early summer, 2004 (did not testify under oath)
• Ex-Dep. Sec/State Richard Armitage
• WH Assist. To. Pres. Dan Bartlett
• Ex-WH press aide Claire Buchan: Feb. 6, 2004
• WH COS Andy Card
• Time's Matt Cooper: July 13, 2005
• Ex-WH press. sec. Ari Fleischer (at least twice)
• A.G. Alberto Gonzales: June 18, 2004
• Ex-DOS BIR dir. Carl Ford
• NSA Stephen Hadley
• Ex-CIA comm. dir. Bill Harlow
• Assis. Sec. of Commerce/Ex-Rove assist. Izzy Hernandez
• Assist. Sec. of State Karen Hughes
• Ex-Sec/State counterproliferation offic. Bob Joseph
• Washington Post's Glenn Kessler
• Ex junior WH press aide Adam Levine: Feb. 6, 2004
• Cheney CoS Irving L. "Scooter" Libby (twice)
• Ex-Cheney adviser Mary Matalin: Late January, 2004
• Current WH Press Sec. Scott McClellan: Feb, 6, 2004
• Ex-CIA dep. dir. John McLaughlin
• Cheney aide Cathie Martin
• New York Times ' Judy Miller (twice)
• CIA comm. dir. Jennifer Millerwise (did not go before grand jury)
• Columnist Bob Novak
• Ex-Sec/State Colin Powell: July 16, 2004
• Ex-Abramoff assist./Rove assist. Susan Ralston
• WH DCoS Karl Rove (4 times)
• NBC News' Tim Russert
• Stranger who stopped Novak in the street
• Ex-CIA dir. George Tenet
• Sen. Adviser to Sec/State Jim Wilkinson (has said he did not testify)
• Ex-Amb. Joseph Wilson

     
On the witness list at one point but never called to tesify:

• New York Times' Nick Kristoff

     
"Cooperated" with Fitzgerald:

• Sec/State Condoleezza Rice

     
Others believed to have testified:

• John Hannah, David Wurmser (senior members of Cheney's staff) (Hotline sources)

     
Other journalists mentioned in press acounts as having initially sparked Fitzgerald's interest:

• Time's Massimo Calabresi
• Time's Mike Duffy
• Time's James Carney
• NBC's Andrea Mitchell
• NYTer David Sanger
• Newsday's Timothy M. Phelps
• Newsday's Knut Royce
• Newsweek's Evan Thomas
• Ex-Postie Mike Allen
• NBC's Campbell Brown
• WSJ ed. page. editor Paul Gigot / reporter Greg Hitt
• Ex-celeb. James Guckert/Jeff Gannon

 (Back to Contents)

Posted 10.18.05 03:44 PM | Comments (90)

Arnold The Ohioan

Early on, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's endorsement of the OH redistricting proposal has been cast as an attempt by the gov. to re-establish his nonpartisan, reformist credentials amid complaints back home that CA Prop. 77 is a power grab by the GOP. Since the initiative in OH is backed by labor and other Dem-leaning folks, his support for the OH proposal might provide that PR boost on the left coast.

But the endorsement is also noteworthy because Schwarzenegger has described OH as his home-away-from-home. He owns property there and hosts his annual bodybuilding expo in Columbus, so his popularity there is based on more than just celebrity. That's why in 2004, the Bush camp had Schwarzenegger stump for him in the purple Buckeye State, rather than in solid blue CA.

It'll be interesting to see how big of a splash his endorsement has in OH in the coming weeks. If redistricting were to pass in both OH and CA this November (and based on the polling in CA, that's certainly no given), fledgling efforts in other states (like FL) will no doubt pick up steam. [MIKE MEMOLI]

Posted 10.18.05 03:41 PM | Comments (1)

McKinnon's Nomination, Updated

We posted a squib last night based on a White House press list that had the administration seeming to withdraw a nomination of Mark Mckinnon's to the Broadcasting Board of Governors.

Turns out that the nomination line was merely shifted.... sort of a WH paper shuffle that is part of the normal conduct of nomination business. So there's no back story. He's still a nominee. We send our apologies to Mr. McKinnon for the misinterpretation and we congratulate him on his nomination.

Posted 10.18.05 02:14 PM | Comments (1)

Diageo/Hotline Poll Of VA

Kaine sports a 2-pt lead over Kilgore among registered voters; Kilgore leads by a point among likelies. Education and transportation are the most important issues. Dems seem to be more enthused about their guy than GOPers are about theirs.

Most of the dope sheet is after the jump. Hotline subscribers get the full poll, plus our special '08 Allen/Warner questions. A Diageo/Hotline poll; conducted 10/13-16 by Financial Dynamics; surveyed 500 regis. VA voters; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 10/18). EL subsample: 321 extremely likely to vote voters; margin of error +/- 5.6%. LV subsample: 435 extremely/very likely to vote voters; margin of error +/- 4.7%. Tested: LG Tim Kaine (D), ex-AG Jerry Kilgore (R) and state Sen. Russ Potts (I).

GOV General Election Matchups                         Non Born Agn?
              All ELs LVs GOP Ind Dem Men Wom Wht Blk Wht Yes  No
Kaine         40% 41% 41% 13% 33% 86% 34% 44% 40% 54% 37% 27% 50%
Kilgore       38  42  40  70  25   5  41  35  39  15  34  53  28
Potts          5   5   6   4  11   3  10   2   6   4   4   3   7
Undec/DK      18  13  14  12  30   6  15  20  16  27  25  18  17

             Hmpt Lynch     Shend     Roank
              Rds SthS NOVA Pdmnt Rich SthW 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
Kaine         41%  30%  43%  46%  42%  23%   49%   26%   35%   44%  44%
Kilgore       33   49   36   32   33   55    30    47    45    30   36
Potts          4   12    6    5    4    5     2    10     1    10    3
Undec/Oth     22    9   15   18   20   17    20    17    19    16   17

2-Way Matchup    All GOP Ind Dem
Kaine            41% 18% 35% 84%
Kilgore          39  69  32   7
Undec/DK         20  13  33  10
                                    Gov. Race Interest? All GOP Ind Dem
Direction Of VA                     A lot               50% 49% 47% 60%
              All GOP Ind Dem       Some                31  34  36  24
Right dir     56% 58% 57% 59%       A little            14  14  14  11
Wrong trk     28  28  30  27        None                 4   3   4   5

Most Impt Issue Facing State?       Should Illegal Immigrants Who Are
(top 5)       All GOP Ind Dem       Working In US Be Able To Keep Jobs
Education     16% 17% 10% 21%       Eventually Applying For Legal Stat
Economy       15  16  17  15        Or Be Deported Back To Country?
Taxes         10  11  12   8                         All GOP Ind Dem
Jobs           6   6   8   6        Chance to stay   48% 38% 52% 61%
Gas prices     4   6   5   3        Deported back    38  50  31  26

Amount Of Federal Taxes You Pay     Immigration Kept At Current Level?
              All GOP Ind Dem                       All GOP Ind Dem
Too high      48% 54% 58% 32%       Present level   32% 23% 38% 42%
About right   44  41  36  55        Increased       14  14  18  12
Too low        4   2   2   8        Decreased       42  54  39  31

Agree/Disagree With The Following?                             Agg Dis
Gov't respons. to care for those who can't for themselves      67% 29%
Prayer is an important part of my daily life                   77  21
Labor unions are necessary to protect working people           63  31
Business corporations get too many tax breaks from gov't       67  23
School boards have right to fire teachers who are known gay    27  68
Gay marriage is detrimental to instiution of marriage          52  42
Convicted of premeditated murder should be given death penalty 67  24

Fav/Unfav        Fav/Unfav          Most Impt For Next Gov. To Address?
Kilgore          42%/28%                            All GOP Ind Dem
Kaine            42 /25             Education       30% 29% 23% 36%
Warner           69 /16             Transport/gas   24  22  30  23
Gilmore          30 /24             Healthcare      21  16  25  26
Potts            17 /11             Taxes           12  16   9   5
Allen            53 /22             Immigration      5   8   7   2
Bush             49 /46             Death penalty    2   2   -   3

Which Have You Done As Result Of Gas Prices?          All GOP Ind Dem
Made more of an effort to find cheapest station       52% 58% 47% 50%
Cut back significantly on how much you drive          43  40  43  47
Considered more fuel-efficient car the next time      30  29  26  31
Cut back significantly on your household spending     21  18  22  22
Used public transportation to get to work              8   8  10   6

Which One Of Following Is More Likely To Be Corrupt?  All GOP Ind Dem
Federal elected officiails, such as Congress          27% 26% 19% 37%
Local elected officials, such as Mayor or Council     24  28  24  20
Appointed gov't officials, such as Cabinet members    17  14  19  16
State elected offficials, such as Gov or AG            8   9  12   3

Posted 10.18.05 12:43 PM | Comments (0)

Just Asking...

Not because we know anything (we don't) or because we want to seed any rumint (we don't), but... what happens if the ABA rates Miers as "qualified" sted. "well qualified?"

Does it matter? Should it matter? We do know it's something the White House has thought about. So your comments are most welcome on the matter.

Posted 10.18.05 11:54 AM | Comments (0)

The Miers Questionnaire: A First Glance

Keyest item:

Harriet Miers, in 1989, answered "yes" to a questioned posed by a Texas pro-life group about her willingness to support a human life amendment to the constitution that would ban abortion except for cases where the life of the mother was at stake.

Key items:

She "...pursued two cases, one on behalf of a prisoner, and the other on behalf of a social security claimant, all the way to the Supreme Court of the Unied States, which denied certioari." (26)

The SCOTUS cases: Bush v. Jones (re: the 12th amendment/Cheney residence controversy), a court appointed attorney in Popeko V. US (the defendent, convicted of counterfeiting, appealed his habeas claim. Writ was denied.); and in Ware v. Schweiker (she rep'd an indigent mother whose Social Security benefits were denied)

"...I have identified eight cases that were tried to verdict. I was lead counsel or sole counsel in four, lead local counsel in one, and associate counsel in three." (27)

In civil litigation, Miers says her cases routinely touched on constitutional principles, including the 14th amendment, the 12th amendment, the 7th amendment and a "media client" that "encompassed many First Amendment issues that were never litigated, including libel. For instance, I would often consult on prepublication review of articles and issues related to reporters' sources of information." (48) [MARC AMBINDER]

Some fun facts:
Miers' DC law license was briefly suspended this year when she neglected to pay her dues. It was re-instated upon payment.

Served as a "computer center helper" at the Southern Methodist University Computer Center from 1964 to 1969.

Interesting Biographical highlights:

* Lists herself as an ex board member for the YWCA, Dallas Legal Services, the Dallas 2012 Olympic ctte, Tyler Cabot Mortgage Securities and more.

* Does not seem to have written a substantial law review article but lists many Dallas Bar Assoc. Headnotes to her credit

* Received an honorary doctorate from Pepperdine U School of Law; a Woman of the Year Award from "Today's Dallas Woman," and the Louise D. Raggio Award from the Dallas Women's Lawyer Assoc; and others

* Admitted to the SCOTUS bar in 1982.

Posted 10.18.05 11:28 AM | Comments (0)

Fred Thompson To IA

Ex-TN Sen. Fred Thompson will headline a fundraiser for IA Rep/Gov. candidate Jim Nussle (R) on Nov. 12 in Cedar Rapids. [CHUCK TODD]

Posted 10.18.05 09:28 AM | Comments (1)

Key GOPer: 60-70 Seats In Play?

Here is an argument, made by an influential Republican 10/17, suggesting the field of competitive house seats might not be as small as the NRCC spins it.

1. The "model" as the NRCC sees it suggests that only 20-25 seats are in play. That model is time-tested and makes sense in the current political environment. But the environment changes -- and it's certainly changing, the model looses its mooring. With a presidential approval rating stagnant, with the generic ballot tilting anywhere between five and twelve points away from Republicans, with overall Congressional (read: incumbent) approval ratings in the basement, it's a safe bet that the model needs revising.

2. 527s, particularly on the Dem side, could easily take a ho-hum race and throttle it forward. (CO Rep. Marilyn Musgrave came within a hair's breadth of losing in '04 thanks to 527s, and there are dozens of marginal GOP seats where the right 527 pitch/money/boots on the ground could shift the terrain a few points, thus endangering it.) 527s won't get involved until the end of the cycle, so a bunch of seats that look safe in May of '06 could be less so in Oct. of '06.

3. The parties continue to recruit. If anyone can expand the field in a year, it's DCCC chair Rahm Emanel (D-IL), who has connections to -- or has raised money for -- someone in just about every even potentially competitive district in the country. [MARC AMBINDER]

We asked NRCC's Carl Forti for a response.

"Don't take the NRCC's word for it on competetive races, ask Charlie Cook. He's only got 27 competetive races and in 1994 he had 108. Or look at the fundraising numbers coming out. We've got 5 to 10 top challengers as does the DCCC. You also have to take into account the effects of redistricting... districts aren't made like they used to be."

"And look at the polling. Polling is fairly universal in approval for the President and Congress very low. But it's low for both GOPers and Dems in congress, not just GOPers. But look at the Pew poll from Sept 15th, which at the same time that people are saying they dissapprove of the president and gopers in congress and dems in congress, they say they would vote to reelect their member of congress 57 / 25."

"For those who are only looking at the national numbers, they're really missing what's going on. Which is why they might not believe teh NRCC point of view, but that just goes to that persons real lack of knowledge on how House races are won or lost."

Still, as Mr. Cook pointed out to us last night, it's early enough in the recruiting season, filing deadlines aren't until December at the earliest, and there are plenty of congressional districts where a solid Democrat could poll at least 45 percent without trying.

Posted 10.18.05 08:50 AM | Comments (10)

October 17, 2005

Mark McKinnon Withdraws... (correction appended)

Are we missing a backstory here?

From the White House: A nomination withdrawn.

Mark McKinnon, of Texas, to be a Member of the Broadcasting

Board of Governors for a term expiring August 13, 2008, vice Joaquin

F. Blaya, term expired, which was sent to the Senate on September 6,

2005.

Update:

We posted a squib last night based on a White House press list that had the administration seeming to withdraw a nomination of Mark Mckinnon's to the Broadcasting Board of Governors.

Turns out that the nomination line was merely shifted.... sort of a WH paper shuffle that is part of the normal conduct of nomination business. So there's no back story. He's still a nominee. We send our apologies to Mr. McKinnon for the misinterpretation and we congratulate him on his nomination.

Posted 10.17.05 09:53 PM | Comments (2)

PFA's New Base Strategy

We hear that Progress for America, the main Republican 527 selling the Miers nomination, is spending about $10K to whip up support among those readers of conservative websites and blogs.

PFA is placing banner ads on at least 20 of the high-trafficked conservative websites and on National Review Online, the Weekly Standard Online, and the Washington Times Online.

The ads link to a provocative quiz about Miers. (Did you know that Clarence Thomas was a "liberal activist" in college?) [MARC AMBINDER]

Posted 10.17.05