November 30, 2005

Two Calendar Thoughts...

... that I have to get off my chest.

1) What are the NH Dems thinking? Just when it seemed they were going to get 75% of what they wanted out of the DNC primary calendar commission, they pressed the panic button. What was the 75%? NH was still going to be the DNC's first-in-the-nation primary; the state was STILL going to have its own day to itself, without having to share its primary date with any other state's caucus OR primary; and most importantly, they were going to get the IA/NH jealousy argument set aside for the first time in years. If you ask me, IA and NH were on the verge of remarkable survival. [CHUCK TODD]

To think that the commission is/was on the verge of upholding the spirit of New Hampshire's history. If NH's status wasn't in jeopardy before, it is now. DNCers are ticked, big time; mostly over the arrogance issue. And Sec/State Bill Gardner has made it worse by reminding us of the state's "nuclear option" before a plan was even announced.

Gardner should not have even said a thing until AFTER their was a plan, or more importantly until AFTER the 2008 cycle if it was deemed NH status had been jeopardized.

2) As for Iowa, things had been looking up for them as the state's status seemed safe, that is until ex-Rep. Dave Nagle decided to chime in. Before today, IA Dems had smartly kept quiet, watching NH shoot itself in their foot. But Nagle's comments complicate things for IA as well. The DNC might decide that it will tell both IA and NH where to stick it. All calendar revamp proponents have been fighting for is for a share of the early limelight. No one wants to kill IA and NH, political hacks are, if nothing else, respectful of history. But the more IA and NH verbally fight any change and act stubborn, the more likely the great majority of the DNC primary calendar commission will think twice about respecting history.

The danger for IA Dems in '08 is relevancy, thanks to the possibility that Tom Vilsack will run for president. Then again, Vilsack could provide IA Dems a shot in the arm by pledging NOT to participate or contest in the IA caucuses so that the state doesn't lose its prestige. Imagine how much more Vilsack would endear himself to IA Dem activists if he made this pledge? Plus, Vilsack can never surpass the absurd expectations he's going to face if he does participate in the Caucuses, so it's truly a win-win for him. [CHUCK TODD]

Posted 11.30.05 04:55 PM | Comments (2)

The GOP's View Of The '08 Primary Calendar

To NH Dems' declaration of war against the DNC primary commission, NH GOPers reacted with a mix of calm and caution, and many went running to the rule-books. Ex-NH AG Tom Rath told us, "We are waiting and watching and it ain't over 'til.... I think we would ask [NH Sec. of State Bill] Gardner to be mindful of our rule."

Party officials said the RNC is bound by its own rules for choosing delegates and had no means (nor the inclination) to re-arrange its calendar to accomodate an intra-party dispute among Dems. Says RNC comm. dir. Brian Jones: "Our rules were set at the previous convention. There's no changing of the rules for us."

According to a Republican familiar with the nomination process and with party thinking on the matter, the GOP's rules for 2008 are locked in. Says the Republican, who asked not to be identified in order to speak candidly: "We do not have the flexibility to modify those rules." The rules adopted by delegates at the 2004 convention set Feb. 5 of '08 as the earliest date on which state parties can hold contests to select delegates. The rules say that any state choosing to hold a primary or a delegate-selection convention outside the window risks losing fifty percent of its delegates by one of two means: the RNC chair can decide unilateraly to dock the state, or three members of the rules cmte can raise a point of order and enforce the same rule.

In 2008, the GOP nomination is open. Would a state party be able to convince all but two members of the rules cmte to allow it to keep all its delegates when various potential presidential candidates (and their allies on the rules committee) would be arguing against it? Says the Republican: "You can't select delegates before the first Tuesday. You do that, and you have the potential of losing half your delegates." Says another well-connected NH GOPer: "I don't think there's much churning about the schedule on our side and all the 08ers are certainly acting like it's still Iowa and us and then everything else."

The prospects for NH GOPers are particularly complicated. If Gardner decides to schedule the primary in Jan., the Republican Party there has three options. One -- they could acquiesce, allowing the state to pay for their primary (or convention) but risking half their delegates. Two -- they could decide to conduct their own so-called "Firehouse Primary" after the window opens in Feb. The problem there: presidential nominating contests are very expensive (think of SC Dems in '04) and the NH GOP might not be able to raise enough money to pull it off.

Three -- they could try to come up with a convention model wherein voters express their preferences on the state-sanctioned day but delegates themselves would not be apportioned until after the window opens. But this option might curtail participation by GOP voters. Since IA does not hold primaries, the status of the IA GOP's '08 plan is undetermined at this writing. {MARC AMBINDER]

Posted 11.30.05 04:17 PM | Comments (0)

Giuliani Zigs...Part II

We hear... that Ex-NYC mayor Rudy Giuliani has spoken at more than two dozen Get Motivated seminars since 2003, each drawing crowd sizes in the many thousands. So it's possible he's 'motivated' more than a million people.

Posted 11.30.05 03:37 PM | Comments (1)

Greatly Exaggerated

In the WSJ's subscriber-only "Political Diary" yesterday afternoon, John Fund reported that Senate Min. Leader Harry Reid had told Reno's NBC affiliate: "I heard that Osama bin Laden died in the [recent Pakistan] earthquake, and if that's the case, I certainly wouldn't wish anyone harm, but if that's the case, that's good for the world."

That section was soon made available to the public on the RNC's website, and conservative bloggers jumped right on it. As the 5/17 Blogometer records, they had already jumped on him for mentioning the FBI file of then-Bush jud. nominee Henry Saad.)

• Power Line posted a reader letter asking: "What does Harry Reid know that we don't? If there is something to this, why is Harry Reid leaking sensitive national security information before our intelligence agencies have anything to say? If there isn't, why is Harry Reid spreading falsehoods and hearsay?"
• NC-based schoolteacher Betsy Newmark was quicker to judge: "If senators can't be trusted with top secret information, they won't be able to perform their Constitutional obligations to oversight of the Executive branch. They must be trusted to keep their big yaps shut. And this guy goes off blabbing to the local news station!"
• And so was Varifrank, who posted images of a few "loose lips sink ships" type WWII-era posters.

However... [WILLIAM BEUTLER]

NV columnist Jon Ralston noted in his subscriber-only Flash Report later that evening: "By the way, all the senator said was that NPR had been reporting that Bin Laden may be dead and if so..." Among the few bloggers to get it about right was DC-based left-libertarian Dave Weigel: "Am I missing something? A lot of people were speculating that bin Laden died in the Pakistan earthquake. If you hear Reid's entire quote, it sounds like he was going off those speculations -- he actually said 'I heard today' that he may have died, which is a little less loaded than the 'had been informed just that day' James Bond spin John Fund takes on it."

To see the interview for yourself, KRNV has the video.

For more buzz from the political blogosphere, make sure to check out today's edition of the Blogometer.

Posted 11.30.05 03:14 PM | Comments (52)

Washington Quivers...

From the WSJ: "A federal judge denied Research In Motion's request to enforce a settlement reached between the BlackBerry maker and NTP, ruling the pact is invalid."

What do y'all think a day without Blackberries would be like in DC?

Palm, Inc (NASD: PALM) up just over 4% on the day, shot up $2 per share in the space of half an hour after the ruling.

RIM (NASD: RIMM) down 5%, fell nearly $6 in about an hour.

Posted 11.30.05 03:01 PM | Comments (0)

Klink: Back In Town?

We hear... that ex-Rep./'00 PA SEN Dem nominee Ron Klink (D) is mulling a run for what's left of his old PA 04 seat, currently held by Rep. Melissa Hart (R).

Hart has never finished below 59% in her three runs for Congress, but Klink would represent her most serious competition to date.

Posted 11.30.05 02:53 PM | Comments (0)

Cunningham: Then And Now

Below are some choice quotes from a glowing '91 LA Times profile of soon-to-be-ex-Rep. Duke Cunningham that a friend at our sister publication, the Almanac of American Politics, dug up.

Viewed through the context of Cunningham's recent unpleasantness they are a reminder of just how fleeting power in Washington can be and a reminder of what the many alluring and, for some, irresistible temptations here can do to a career and a life.

Keep in mind that the story was written just one month into the Dukestir's first term.

"I've never seen anyone -- anyone -- get out of the starting blocks so fast," said National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) staffer Gary Koops. "The Duke Man is dynamite."

"I already consider him a treasure who I could send out anywhere in the country and be confident of his drawing power," said Rep. Guy Vander Jagt (R-MI), NRCC chairman. "The older members treat him more like a celebrity than a freshman. In the short time he's been here, Duke's captured more attention than any other freshman I've ever seen. This is not a fleeting thing -- it's an opportunity Duke will build upon," Vander Jagt said. "He's not just a meteor hurtling through the congressional firmament. He's a permanent star."

"Maybe God puts you in the place where He thinks you could do the most good," Cunningham said in an interview in his office, sitting amid the half-filled cardboard boxes, bare walls and empty shelves marking his new occupancy.

"This is the part that gets me a little emotional," Cunningham said recently as he walked briskly up the Capitol steps to vote. "You look around the House chamber, and it's hard to believe you're really part of this. It's a pretty awesome feeling. It kind of makes your hair stand up to think of all the history of the place."

"I'm not going to go around beating on my chest, but I'll get attention one way or another," Cunningham says. "The tip of my spear is pretty sharp, and I'm not willing to just sit back and settle for scraps."

And here's the kicker: "Well, I'm here," he said. "And, when I leave this place in 10 or 20 years, I think I'll have left my mark."

Posted 11.30.05 02:49 PM | Comments (2)

Hotline To Conduct '06 SRLC Straw Poll

The Hotline in conjunction with the TN GOP, today announced it will conduct the authorized presidential preference straw poll at this year's Southern Republican Leadership Conference in Memphis, TN from 3/9-12 in '06.

More than 1,000 GOP activists, donors, state party chairs, county chairs, members of Congress, GOP candidates and elected officials are expected to attend. Many Republicans say the SRLCs are primo party confabs, second only to the national conventions during presidential years.

The SRLC rose to prominence in the 1980s as GOPers began to consolidate congressional districts across the South. As Ronald Reagan told the gathering in '84 in GA: "It wasn't that long ago, yes, when the South was a stronghold for the Democratic Party. But from the spirit I sense here, those days are long gone. Today it's the Republican Party that reflects the progress and the vibrance of the new South."

At the '98 straw poll in Biloxi, MS, candidate/speakers included Lamar Alexander, John Aschroft, Dan Quayle and Steve Forbes. All were well-received, but the one man who didn't show -- then TX Gov. George W. Bush -- won the poll, a testament to his early strength among GOP elites. (Bush was busy campaigning in his GOV primary which was the very next week.) Forbes came in second, a reflection of the popularity of his tax message (which Bush later adopted) and his surprising strength among social conservatives. There were many 'Bush-Quayle' signs in the audience; Quayle placed third. Then-Sen. Fred Thompson got 10 percent. The SRLC can also break candidacies: Jack Kemp's speech was so poorly received that it portended the beginning of the end of his candidacy.

Invited potential presidential candidates include:

• Sen. George Allen (R-VA)


• Gov. Haley Barbour (R-MS)(


• Sen. Sam Brownback (R-KS)


• Gov. Jeb Bush (R-FL)


• Sen. Bill Frist (R-TN)


• Ex-Rep. Newt Gingrich (R-GA)


• Ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R-NY)


• Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-NE)


• Gov. Mike Huckabee (R-AR)


• Sen. John McCain (R-AZ)


• Gov. George Pataki (R-NY)


• Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R-MN)


• Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA)


• Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA)


• Gov. Mark Sanford (R-SC)


• Ex-Sen. Fred Thompson (R-TN)

Posted 11.30.05 11:52 AM | Comments (17)

NH: We'll Just Reschedule The Primary

New Hampshire Union-Leader ace John DiStaso advances the jam between NH Dems and their party, reporting that Sec/State Bill Gardner will do whatever it takes to protect New Hampshire's First In The Nation status. He'd even move the date of the primary earlier. Today's Hotline will bring you the Republican Party's perspective, and we'll post our story to On Call later in the day.

Posted 11.30.05 08:50 AM | Comments (0)

Bush's Iraq Strategy

Newly declassified, just for you. Download file

Catch the executive summary after the jump.

Executive Summary
OUR NATIONAL STRATEGY FOR VICTORY IN IRAQ:
Helping the Iraqi People Defeat the Terrorists and Build an Inclusive Democratic State Victory in Iraq is Defined in Stages

-- Short term, Iraq is making steady progress in fighting terrorists, meeting political milestones, building democratic institutions, and standing up security forces.

-- Medium term, Iraq is in the lead defeating terrorists and providing its own security, with a fully
constitutional government in place, and on its way to achieving its economic potential.

-- Longer term, Iraq is peaceful, united, stable, and secure, well integrated into the international community, and a full partner in the global war on terrorism.

-- Victory in Iraq is a Vital U.S. Interest

-- Iraq is the central front in the global war on terror. Failure in Iraq will embolden terrorists and expand their reach; success in Iraq will deal them a decisive and crippling blow.

-- The fate of the greater Middle East -- which will have a profound and lasting impact on American security –- hangs in the balance. Failure is Not an Option

-- Iraq would become a safe haven from which terrorists could plan attacks against America, American interests abroad, and our allies.

-- Middle East reformers would never again fully trust American assurances of support for democracy and human rights in the region -- a historic opportunity lost.

-- The resultant tribal and sectarian chaos would have major consequences for American security and interests in the region.

The Enemy Is Diffuse and Sophisticated

-- The enemy is a combination of rejectionists, Saddamists, and terrorists affiliated with or inspired by Al Qaida. Distinct but integrated strategies are required to defeat each element.

-- Each element shares a common short-term objective –- to intimidate, terrorize, and tear down -- but has separate and incompatible long-term goals.

-- Exploiting these differences within the enemy is a key element of our strategy.

Our Strategy for Victory is Clear

-- We will help the Iraqi people build a new Iraq with a constitutional, representative government that respects civil rights and has security forces sufficient to maintain domestic order and keep Iraq from becoming a safe haven for terrorists. To achieve this end, we are pursuing an integrated strategy along three broad tracks, which together incorporate the efforts of the Iraqi government, the
Coalition, cooperative countries in the region, the international community, and the United Nations.

-- The Political Track involves working to forge a broadly supported national compact for democratic governance by helping the Iraqi government:

-- Isolate enemy elements from those who can be won over to the political process by countering false propaganda and demonstrating to all Iraqis that they have a stake in a democratic Iraq;

-- Engage those outside the political process and invite in those willing to turn away from violence through ever-expanding avenues of participation; and

-- Build stable, pluralistic, and effective national institutions that can protect the interests of all Iraqis, and facilitate Iraq’s full integration into the international community.

• The Security Track involves carrying out a campaign to defeat the terrorists and neutralize the insurgency, developing Iraqi security forces, and helping the Iraqi government:

-- Clear areas of enemy control by remaining on the offensive, killing and capturing enemy fighters
and denying them safe-haven;

-- Hold areas freed from enemy influence by ensuring that they remain under the control of the Iraqi government with an adequate Iraqi security force presence; and

-- Build Iraqi Security Forces and the capacity of local institutions to deliver services, advance the rule of law, and nurture civil society.

Posted 11.30.05 08:23 AM | Comments (1)

Jack On The Web

While he continues to eye a challenge to Sen. John Ensign (R), presidential son Jack Carter (D) has launched a new website. The site has few features so far, but it does reinforce just how much the would-be candidate resembles his dad, former President Jimmy Carter. (It also features a contributions link, natch).

Carter told the Reno Gazette-Journal this week that he'll "definitely" announce his decision early next year. "I'm quasi-official, still," he said.

Posted 11.30.05 07:56 AM | Comments (0)

November 29, 2005

Warner Decides On Lovitt

VA Gov. Mark Warner (D) will commute the death sentence of convicted killer Robin Lovitt. Warner cited evidence that was destroyed in the case as grounds for staying the execution.

Warner also made clear in his statement, posted below, that this was no pardon. Warner: "After a thorough review, it is my decision that Robin Lovitt should spend the rest of his life in prison with no eligibility for parole."

As detailed in a Page One Post story over the Thanksgiving holiday, Lovitt was found guilty of robbery and capital murder 6 years ago in Arlington. Lovitt, though, has maintained his innocence and his attorneys (most notably Ken Starr) have pointed to an Arlington Co. court clerk's throwing away of evidence from the case as grounds for commuting Lovitt's death sentence.

Also worth noting is that ex-AG/'01 GOV nominee Mark Earley (R) recently sent Warner a letter asking him to stay the execution. Beyond the irony of an conservative GOPer asking a Dem gov to commute a death sentence (and in a state where the issue played such a major role in this year's GOV race), Earley's intervention is important because it provides Warner with a measure of political cover should the issue be brought up, say, 3 years from now.

With Earley weighing in from beyond the political grave, Starr leading the defense team and Lovitt still facing life in a VA penitentiary (read: no Willie Horton), the political consequences of his decision are less grave than many pundits have suggested. And, of course, there's nothing to suggest that Warner even considered politics when weighing clemency.

Governor Mark R. Warner today issued the following statement regarding the request for clemency in the case of Robin McKennel Lovitt:

"Mr. Lovitt was convicted by a jury in 1999 of robbery and the capital murder of Clayton Dicks. The death sentence imposed on Mr. Lovitt has been reviewed and affirmed by several courts, including the Supreme Court of Virginia, the Fourth Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals, and the United States Supreme Court. In reviewing this clemency request, I found no fault with the judgment of the jury, or with prosecutors and defense counsel, and I am acutely aware of the tragic loss experienced by the Dicks family."

"I believe clemency should only be exercised in the most extraordinary circumstances. Among these are circumstances in which the normal and honored processes of our judicial system do not provide adequate relief -- circumstances that, in fact, require executive intervention to reaffirm public confidence in our justice system."

"The Commonwealth is legally obligated to maintain physical evidence until a defendant has exhausted every legal post-trial remedy in the case. However, evidence in Mr. Lovitt’s trial was destroyed by a court employee before that process could be completed. I believe the courts have correctly ruled that the law requiring the maintenance of such evidence does not provide relief for a defendant in Mr. Lovitt's circumstances. However, in this case, the actions of an agent of the Commonwealth, in a manner contrary to the express direction of the law, comes at the expense of a defendant facing society's most severe and final sanction. The Commonwealth must ensure that every time this ultimate sanction is carried out, it is done fairly."

"After a thorough review, it is my decision that Robin Lovitt should spend the rest of his life in prison with no eligibility for parole."

# # #

Posted 11.29.05 05:12 PM | Comments (1)

NH Dems Openly Spar With DNC

DNC Chair Howard Dean worries that an increasingly bitter public spat between NH Dems and other members of the DNC's primary calendar commission could give political ammunition to GOPers, according to a commission member who has spoken with Dean. Another Dem strategist close to Dean, responding to reports that NH Dems publicly announced their specific preferences before allowing the commission to vote, hinted that a consensus to add states between IA and NH had been reached, and that NH was playing a futile game of catch-up.

"The aggressiveness of New Hampshire encourages aggression from other folks," said the strategist, who asked not to be identified in order to discuss the matter more candidly. "The more we fight about this in the press, the less helpful it is to our nominee in 2008."

A third Dem strategist with close ties to the DNC said NH risks worsening its hand: "Were I New Hampshire, I'd be very careful until the primary calendar is set because there is no rule that says they have to go first, second, third or even fifth. Those recommendations are being made right now by the committee they continue to insult"

Dean has steadfastly refused to discuss potential changes to the party's primary schedule, and DNC spokesperson Josh Earnest said Dean would have no comment on the proposals before they are voted on. But the commission member close to Dean said that the ex-VT gov. is aware that a majority of commission members want to add several caucuses after IA and before NH, and that he has not moved to squelch those proposals behind the scenes, signaling his tacit assent.

And one of the Democratic strategists close to the DNC said the commission is close to reaching a result that "the Democratic chairman will abide by."

Other commission members, who all asked to remain anonymous in order to discuss the process, stressed that since there had been no vote on any proposal yet, there was no way of predicting what the commission will ultimately decide when it meets in DC on 12/10.

NH's proposal, released this summer to commission members and last night to reporters, would "(1) Add one or two contests to a prominent position at the front of the presidential nominating calendar, between the New Hampshire primary and the beginning of the period open to any state. These contests would occur in states whose voting public displays substantial racial, ethnic, religious or other key diversity characteristics; and (2) Reverse the frontloading trend by creating a series of sanctioned dates on which states could hold presidential primaries or caucuses, beginning on or about the first Tuesday of February and ending on or about the second Tuesday in June."

In a conf. call with nat'l pol. reporters this a.m, NH Dem chair Kathy Sullivan and ex-NH chair Joe Keefe touted what Keefe called NH's "compromise" proposal. Keefe: "It's a very legitimate and responsible comrpomise between what seems to be the two developing positions." Keefe said the NH proposal "tackles frontloading," which he said the commission had not yet done. Sullivan said the developing commission consensus "would exacerbate frontloading" and would "hurt the Democratic nominee." Sullivan said caucuses held before NH would violate NH law because they presumably would be party-run "firehouse primaries." Sullivan: "In 2004, there were twelve events within an eight day time frame. However, on February 17, Wisconsin had its own date. It went by itself [and] did not have any other states for seven days before or seven days after. Wisconsin ended up having the second highest turnout of any other state, aside from New Hampshire and California." Keefe said the NH plan would incent states to choose later dates because they would "own them" by themselves. The DNC would limit the number of delegates apportioned on specific dates.

IA Dems have largely managed to keep their commission wrangling private, even though they are sympathetic to NH's concerns. Says one Dem close to the party and familiar with the inner workings of the commission: "There's no question that IA has been playing it better than NH" [MARC AMBINDER]

Posted 11.29.05 03:00 PM | Comments (0)

Giuliani Zigs...

Ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani has studiously avoided the traditional pre-pre-presidential race gauntlets. He's not visited IA and NH and has largely stayed off TV, preferring to focus on tending to his law firm, Bracewell Giuliani, and to his consulting partnership. He's also raised millions for charity. But Giuliani has found a way to bypass the media filter and speak directly to tens of thousands of Americans at once.

Since March, Giuliani has been top-billed at "Get Motivated" seminars in 13 states, attracting several hundred thousand aspiring enterprenuers -- from Mary Kay cosmestics vendors to small business owners -- to hear his trademark lecture on leadership during crises.

A Giuliani aide: "He enjoys them greatly, because they offer him the opportunity to speak to large cross section of Americans they're not just small groups of CEOs in New York, L.A. or DC. ... It gives him an opportunity to speak to a broader auidence."

Audience members pay between $49 and $225 to attend the day-long "Get Motivated" seminars, which are run by corporate strategy guru Zig Ziglar.

Giuliani is compensated for his apperances, though an aide declined to say how much. Other frequent speakers include ex-Sec/State Colin Powell, ex-CinC of Central Command Tommy Franks, comedian Jerry Lewis, real estate maven Tommy Hopkins and financial advice gurette Suze Orman. Get Motivated, Inc. advertises the seminars in local newspapers months ahead of the event and tries to recruit local heros to join the roster of speakers. A two-day event in Kansas City, KS, for example, featured Kansas City Chiefs coach Dick Vermeil.
Typically, Giulaini takes the stage to roaring cheers and to the the strains of "New York, New York." Press accounts suggest his entrance spurs spontaneous standing ovations. His 20-to-30 minute speech references his stewardship of New York during the 1990s, his career as a prosecutor, and his experiences on 9/11. Giuliani's staff never asked to keep a copy of the attendee list, though it's unclear at this writing whether Get Motivated would release it to any of their speakers. Locations and crowd sizes after the jump. [MARC AMBINDER]

Locations and crowd sizes:

3/8-9, Dallas: 65K
4/5: New Orleans: 18K
4/26: Nashville: 23K
5/10-11: Kansas City: 24K
6/7: Philadelphia: 22K
6/28: Boston: 16K
8/2: Grand Rapids: 16K
8/23: Pittsburgh: 14K
9/7: Ohio: 5K
9/27: Las Vegas: 12K
10/11: Louisville: 8K
10/26: Richmond: 10K
11/1: Omaha: 20K
11/8: Jacksonville: 13.5K

Assuming these attendance totals are accurate, in just 14 events, Giuliani has addressed over 250,000 people.
A footnote: Giuliani is slated to host a fundraiser for a half dozen GOP house members on 12/12 in NYC.

Posted 11.29.05 02:14 PM | Comments (2)

American Democracy Conference: Thursday

Don't forget!

The Hotline and the UVA's Center for Politics will host our annual American Democracy Conference in Washington on Thursday, 12/1. Hotline editors Chuck Todd and John Mercurio, along with UVA's Larry Sabato, will moderate star-studded panels discussing the Bush mandate, the future of Republicans, and the '06 midterms.

And it's free. You can register to attend here.

Posted 11.29.05 01:02 PM | Comments (0)

Dem 08ers On Troops Coming Home

Prompted by a snarky comment to one of our numerous Mark Warner posts, here's a small clip-n-save.

Bayh: find realistic way to define success, then set benchmarks

Edwards: was "wrong". Wants "significant" reduction of troops after elections early next year. He'd tie the proportion of troops withdrawn to benchmarks set for Iraqi soldier performance.

Biden: no withdrawals until political situation improves, but sees 100K troops back home by '07. Does not rule out more troops if necessary. Wants admin to come clean about targets for Iraqi troop training. More civillian staff in Iraq.

Clark: add civillian component; consider adding troops; adjust the mix on the ground; establish clear benchmarks for training

Clinton: No immed. withdrawal, no troop increase, set specific benchmarks for training Iraqi forces and make it clear to Iraq that the US's military committment is limited.

Feingold: 12/31/06 is a "target date" for troops to come home. But he's flexible.

Kerry: begin drawn down of 20K troops after elections in Dec and continue if successful.

Richardson: "It is now time for the military commanders to design a phased, definitive withdrawal plan."

Warner: No immed. withdrawal, no troop increase, set specific benchmarks for Iraqi forces. Eschews "debating the past." [MARC AMBINDER]

Posted 11.29.05 11:39 AM | Comments (24)

Coleman Drops Out Of OH Gov

News out of Ohio this a.m. is that Columbus Mayor Michael Coleman (D) will drop out of the GOV race, citing family reasons (today’s Hotline has more of the details).

That would seem to be a boost to the only other major Dem in the race, Rep. Ted Strickland, allowing him plenty of time to watch the three GOP candidates duke it out before the May 2nd primary. But already, ex-Rep./now-state Sen. Eric Fingerhut, the Dem challenger to Sen. George Voinovich (R) in '04, is signaling he'll jump in. The Cleveland Plain Dealer even mentions the oft-mentioned Jerry Springer possibility. Sure, the scandals plaguing state government in the wake of Tom Noe leave GOPers vulnerable. But, as we also see in the Hackett-Brown SEN situation, Dems can't seem to get on the same page.

What's more: there are at least 3 Dems seeking to replace Denny White, who abruptly resignated as chair of the Ohio Democratic Party last week. [MIKE MEMOLI]

Posted 11.29.05 11:19 AM | Comments (1)

GOP Retirements An Omen?

We also wondered this:

"Are Republican retirements are a reliable leading indicator on forecasting a change in control of the House of Representatives?"

Taegan Goddard of Political Wire asked Charlie Cook.

From Cook's answer: "In and of themselves, the number of retirements that a party has is not a particularly good leading indicator of seat changes. But, a large number of retirements from incumbents in vulnerable seats can result in a large number of seat changes. With over 95 percent of incumbents in a typical year getting re-elected (though for a party in a bad year it can drop as low as 80 percent), open seats in vulnerable districts increases the volatility in the House and the exposure to losses."

Posted 11.29.05 10:37 AM | Comments (1)

November 28, 2005

Warner On Iraq...Sounds Like HRC On Iraq

In New York today, VA Gov. Mark Warner rejected calls by many Democrats to set a target date to drawn down U.S. troop levels in Iraq, saying he prefers a gradual approach that links troop withdrawals to benchmarks achieved by Iraqi forces.

The AP quotes Warner: "'This Democrat doesn't think we need to re-fight how we got into (the Iraq war). I think we need to focus more on how to finish it,' Warner said.....'To set an arbitrary deadline or specific date is not appropriate ... It is incumbent on the president to set milestones for what he believes will be the conclusion."

That's similar to what Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York said last week.

She rejected an immediate pull-back but, like Warner, said no more troops were needed.

And she also endorsed a benchmark approach, distinguishing her from potential '08 opponents like Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI).

Clinton: "My approach is we tell them we expect you to meet these certain benchmarks and that means getting troops and police officers trained, equipped and ready to defend their people."

Posted 11.28.05 08:23 PM | Comments (3)

Warner To SC

VA Gov. Mark Warner makes his first trip to SC on Dec. 7, where he'll keynote the SC Dem's annual Governors Appreciation Dinner in Charleston.

Ex-Dem govs Hodges, Hollings, McNair, and Riley will speak and be honored.

SC Dem chair Joe Erwin: "This is going to be a truly great event. South Carolina has been served extremely well by Democratic Governors and we are excited about honoring them at this dinner. Mark Warner is quickly becoming a rock star on the national level and I can't think of a better keynote speaker."

We're told that ex-DNC chair Don Fowler, a big Warner fan, pushed hard for Warner to get the invite. And that Fowler plans to act as Warner's in-state sherpa, making sure he gets to chat with well-connected Dems. [MARC AMBINDER]

Posted 11.28.05 04:30 PM | Comments (1)

Statement From Cunningham's Chief Of Staff Harmony Allen

"This is now a personal matter for the Congressman and his family. The office will not comment any further on today's proceedings other than to say that we are praying for Duke in these exceedingly difficult times."

"The office is working closely with the Clerk of the House to ensure that the needs of the constituents of the 50th District of California are met throughout this transition."

Posted 11.28.05 04:28 PM | Comments (2)

Cunningham And The Caucus

Two other interesting nuggets on the Cunningham resignation. With DeLay on ice, will Acting Maj Leader Blunt have increased voting sway on the GOP's Steering Cmte? DeLay's vote on the committee assignment-distributing panel was weighted to count as two votes. Speaker Hastert's vote counts as five votes and the 26 other GOPers on the cmte just have their own vote. Will Blunt take DeLay's extra vote? Who makes that decision? And what does it say for his future hopes if he does or doesn't get the extra juice?

Another interesting question to ponder is whether Appropriations Cmte Chair Jerry Lewis (R-CA) keeps Cunningham's seat in the Golden State. As mentioned earlier, there are a handful of non-CA perennial contenders for approps slots who cast vote after vote with their leadership. Will they be passed over at the chair's discretion to keep three of the coveted seats in the hands of CA GOPers?

Posted 11.28.05 04:06 PM | Comments (1)

Frist: Immig. In Feb.

Sen. Maj. Leader Bill Frist, who is angling to play a lead role when the Senate considers immigration legislation in '06, said today he plans to bring a border security bill to the floor in Feb.

Frist is sympathetic to President Bush's view that American ought to welcome and enhance legal immigration, but aides say he sees both a practical and political need to address border security gaps first.

Frist helped to ensure that next year's homeland security budget contained funding for about 1,000 new border patrol agents.

His announcement comes the day that President Bush began a series of high-profile border visits and a few days after Sen. Arlen Specter dropped word of his own immigration principles, one of which would increase the number of green cards granted by the government. Specter's ideas are broadly supported by the GOP's high-dollar donor base and most corporate lobbyists.

The base, particularly in the Southwest and in exurban communities in the rest of the country, seems to want tough enforcement proposals that do not allow for "amnesty," a scare word in the immigration political lexicon.

What strategists don't know is whether the base will punish GOPers if they don't take a hard line on immigration. Some, like conservative Paul Weyrich, think they will. But anecdotal evidence and recent elections suggest that they will not.

Bush has hinted that he would be amenable to the legislation introduced by Sens. John Cornyn and Jon Kyl that would forbid recently deported undocumented immigrations from re-applying for citizenship for as many as ten years after they return to their home countries. The bill would expand temporary work visas but keep their length to two years.

That Bush favors the A word was forgiven by many Republicans in '04, but Republican strategists, even those sympathetic to expanding legal immigration, have concluded that a successful GOP presidential candidate needs to be seen by voters as tough on border enforcement, first and foremost.

From a Frist statement: "We can no longer compromise America's border security, allowing potentially dangerous individuals and materials to slip freely across the border and into our country.....Having personally witnessed the challenges of maintaining safe and secure borders, I know that we must act swiftly to confront the challenges along America's porous borders. That's why the Senate will make strengthening our nation's frontline defenses a top priority in the second session of the 109th Congress, and I plan on bringing up border security reform legislation as a primary legislative item in February." [MARC AMBINDER]

Posted 11.28.05 03:32 PM | Comments (2)

A Thought...

Ralph Neas has been in DC so long that the visuals for his ads create themselves.

Posted 11.28.05 03:26 PM | Comments (1)

Cunningham: What Now

Cunningham's resignation necessitates yet another special election in CA and marks the third House vacancy in CA in '05. Per CA law, Gov. Schwarzenegger must issue a proclamation within 14 calendar days of 11/28 calling for a special. The election must take place "on a Tuesday at least 112 days, but not more than

119 days, following the issuance of" the proclamation.

Notable here is that after Cunningham's successor is chosen, 11 of the 53 House members from CA will have been elected to their seats via special election. In other words, over 20% of CA's House delegation came to office in a non-traditional way.

For those keeping score at home, the CA 11 are:

Rep's Matsui (D), Pelosi (D), Lee (D), Farr (D), Capps (D), Watson (D), Millender-McDonald (D), Baca (D), Bono (R), CA-48 (Cox's old seat), and CA-50 (Cunningham). [JONATHAN MARTIN]

Posted 11.28.05 03:06 PM | Comments (2)

Friends Of Duke

Per an AP alert: "California Congressman Randy "Duke" Cunningham has resigned after admitting taking $2.4 million in bribes."

So who's the first to return Rep. Cunningham's money?

Check out how generous his Friends of Duke Cunningham account has been over the years.... more than $200K to the NRCC alone in '04, and more than $900K total.

Posted 11.28.05 02:44 PM | Comments (2)

Don't Overlook The Other Approval Rating

Republicans running for re-election in '06 can handle an unpopular president who's still well-liked, but can Republicans handle a president whose personal popularity is now coming into question?

A Democracy Corp (D) poll released this afternoon shows Pres. Bush's approval rating at 42% for 4th consecutive time in this poll, while his disapproval reaches a new high at 56%. While this is on par with most national polls of late, the Democracy Corp poll shows how deep these issues run within the GOP. "Strong" disapproval of Bush has reached a new high of 47%, while voters are also feeling more personally detached from Bush with his UNFAV rating trumping his FAV (49%-43%). The direction of the nation has also sustained a high, with 62% saying the nation is on the wrong track, unchanged from earlier in the month. As the deficit in personal approval grows for Bush, it will make it increasingly difficult for his job approval to bounce back. This personal approval should not go unnoticed, especially by GOPers facing re-election. [AOIFE MCCARTHY]

Posted 11.28.05 02:25 PM | Comments (0)

Santorum's New Web Ad

In a new web-only ad released nearly a year before next November's election, Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA) vows to protect Social Security for workers at the cusp of retirement but does not mention his support for personal retirement accounts that most Dems and many GOPers believe would fundamentally undermine the entitlement.

The ad includes visuals of a twirling young ballerina and several happy families. It can seen at RollCall.com and on PoliticsPA.com, sites frequented by Washington insiders and by politically precocious voters in Pennsylvania.

Santorum's campaign spokeswoman, Virginia Davis, said that the campaign did not produce the ad to test how Santorum's principles on Social Security would be interpreted by the media and by PA voters.

"Pennsylvania has one of the oldest population in the country," Davis said. "Seniors are nervous about their retirement benefits. We wanted to highlight the Senator's efforts on this issue."

The ad's narrator touts Santorum's recently-introduced bill to guarantee that workers born after 1950 get full benefits when they retire. The ad ignores his preference to reform the system by allowing workers to invest a portion of their Social Security taxes.

Said Davis, "He believes that it's important seniors to know that their Social Security benefits are guaranteed. And it's an important first step to talking about broader reform."

"It's too important an issue to ignore simply because it's unpopular. He wanted to highlight his efforts on this specific issue," she said.

Like other Democratic office-holders and candidates, Casey has yet to say how he would shore up Social Security's finances. His advisers count on voters remembering Santorum's role in pushing for personal accounts.

"The Santorum bill isn't worth the paper it's printed on," said Larry Smar, Casey's campaign spokesman. "It's not backed by a single penny."

The ad was produced by Santorum media consultant John Brabender. [MARC AMBINDER]

It's called the Social Security Guarantee Act.

And what it would do is simple.

For the first time in history, it would guarantee, by law, that seniors’ Social Security benefits can never be reduced. Never.
Never.

It also guarantees an annual cost of living increase will also be there, helping make retirement a time of joy, not fear.

A bill to provide for the issuance of certificates to Social Security beneficiaries who are born before 1950 guaranteeing their right to receive Social Security benefits under title II of the Social Security Act in full with an accurate annual cost-of-living adjustment.

Who wrote and is leading the fight for this historic legislation that is destined to touch so many Pennsylvanians' lives?

It was our senator, Rick Santorum.

He's touched lives.

He's touched hearts, and most of all he's making a difference all across Pennsylvania.

Posted 11.28.05 02:06 PM | Comments (4)

AP: Cunningham Cops A Plea

The AP reports that Rep. Duke Cunningham (R-CA) will admit he violated the federal tax code...

Per the House's "Code of Official Conduct," Cunningham must "refrain from voting in the House until judicial or executive proceedings reinstate" his "presumption of innocence or until he is reelected to the House after his conviction." Thus with Cunningham having already declared that he will not seek re-election next year, his career in Congress effectively ended with his plea today. It remains to be seen if House will hold a vote on whether to expel Cunningham (a la Traficant) but expect Pelosi/Hoyer/Dean/Rahm to demand one before sundown.

An interesting side note to Cunningham's plea is that his resignation would immediately open up a seat on the always-in-demand House Appropriations Cmte. Look for the likes of Leadership loyalists Rep. Joe Wilson (R-SC) and Jo Bonner (R-AL) to stake their claim to Cunningham's approps seat as soon as (and if) he tenders his resignation.

Posted 11.28.05 01:37 PM | Comments (0)

Warner's $$: A Second Thought

Last week, we mused that VA Gov Mark Warner would probably open his presidential exploratory account early. Our reasoning: if you need to raise a lot of money -- a record amount of money -- and Hillary Clinton is crowding out donors, and you want to position yourself among those fundraisers as the viable alternative, why not start early?

We remain fairly certain that Warner and many other '08 hopefuls intend to bust through the public financing caps.

But Warner might do well to wait a while before he starts to collect money for his presidential. Once Warner opens an exploratory committee, he has to abide by federal limits on what he can raise and what he can spend. Unless he's prepared to say, from day one, that he'll cut himself a check from his Nextel booty, his political activities would be curtailed quite significantly, and early. Why blow through all that cash so quickly?

A more likely option: he raises and spends through his PAC and plants enough seeds to post high numbers when he does open his exploratory account. The best of both worlds: he gets to double dip -- contributors can max out to his PAC and his exploratory in the same cycle -- and he ensures that the media recognizes his prowess whenever he reports numbers to the FEC. [MARC AMBINDER]

Posted 11.28.05 12:55 PM | Comments (1)

109th Congress: The Senate

Sen. Maj. Leader Bill Frist this a.m. announced that the Senate will convene on 1/18 next year, recessing from 2/20-24 and 3-20/24, and then from 4/10-21, from 5/29-6/2, from 7/3-7, and from 8/7 - 9/4. The targeted, pre-'06 adjournment: 10/6.

The House plans to announce its calendar shortly.

Posted 11.28.05 11:53 AM | Comments (1)

Major Political Events...

The Republican Governors Association winter meeting begins Wednesday in Carlsbad, CA. MA Gov. Mitt Romney will take the reins as RGA chair as he readies his announcement about his future political plans.

The Democratic National Committee holds its fall meeting in Phoeniz, AZ from 12/1-3. NM Gov. Bill Richardson and DNC Chair Howard Dean are featured speakers.

The final meeting of the DNC's primary calendar commission kicks off in DC on 12/10. A recommendation to add several states between IA and NH is expected to be forwarded to the party's rules and bylaws committee.

Florida Dems hear from IA Gov. Tom Vilsack, ex-Sen. John Edwards, VA Gov. Mark Warner and keynoter Sen. Barack Obama from 12/9-12/12 in Orlando.

The Republican National Committee's winter meeting commences on 1/19 in DC.

The Conservative Political Action Conference sponsored by the American Conservative Union is slated for 2/9-2/11 at the Omni Shoreham in Washington. Invited guests include VP Dick Cheney, RNC Chairman Ken Mehlman and Bob Novak.

The Southern Republican Leadership Conference and the Midwestern Republican Leadership Conference will get together for a joint mega-event in Memphis beginning on March 9. Various '08 presidentials are expected at what's traditionally been one of the more influential political gatherings in the country.

The DNC will convene its spring meeting in the symbolically important New Orleans, LA, on 4/22.

Posted 11.28.05 11:16 AM | Comments (0)

Your Thursday Morning Plans

The Hotline and the UVA's Center for Politics will host our annual American Democracy Conference in Washington on Thursday, 12/1. Hotline editors Chuck Todd and John Mercurio, along with UVA's Larry Sabato, will moderate star-studded panels discussing the Bush mandate, the future of Republicans, and the '06 midterms.

And it's free. You can register to attend here. And feel free to say hello to On Call, which will try to live-blog from the event.

Posted 11.28.05 11:05 AM | Comments (0)

Guess The Source

Here's the first in an occasional On Call series....

Guess the source.

We want your opinion: who burbles up these juicy quotes, and why? For the comments section, informed, polite speculation preferred, please. Anonymous, insider guesses can be sent directly to your editor.

Today's entry comes from one of the most well-connected reporters in Washington, The New York Daily News' bureau chief Tom DeFrank, whose access to the inner circles of President Bush's senior staff is almost legendary.

On Sunday, DeFrank and Ken Bazinet co-bylined a piece asserting that West Wing aides were victims of bunker mentalities.

"'We're just plodding along,' admitted a senior Bush aide from deep within the West Wing bunker. 'It's up to the President to turn things around now.'

"For the moment, Bush has dismissed discreetly offered advice from friends and loyalists to fire Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld and bring back longtime confidant Karen Hughes from the State Department to shore up his personal White House staff."

"'He thinks that would be an admission he's screwed up, and he can't bring himself to do that,' a former senior staffer lamented."

"A card-carrying member of the Washington GOP establishment with close ties to the White House recently encountered several senior presidential aides at a dinner and came away shaking his head at their' no problems here' mentality."

"'There is just no introspection there at all,' he said in exasperation. "It is everybody else's fault - the press, gutless Republicans on the Hill. They're still in denial."

Posted 11.28.05 09:18 AM | Comments (0)

Stories You May Have Missed...

1. Prosecutors said to prepare a possible bribery case against Rep. Bob Ney (R-OH)

2. Sen. Arlen Specter's draft immigration would double green card permits. In the Senate, any immigration enforcement bill must pass Specter's Judiciary committee before it reaches the floor.

3. Two members of Congress hurt in Iraqi MVA.

4. The Boyden Gray EU hold has been released, probably by Sen. Durbin.

5. President Dodd?

6. McCain to stump for Santorum on Friday.

Posted 11.28.05 08:31 AM | Comments (8)

November 24, 2005

Richardson's Draft Dodge

One of the more amusing signposts in NM Gov. Bill Richardson's career has been his contention, oft repeated and known to reporters and others familiar with his biography, that he was drafted by the Oakland Athletics in 1967.

Turns out -- he wasn't. The Albuquerque Journal investigated and discovered that there's no evidence he was ever officially selected by the team.

The narrative of reporter Toby Smith's sleuthing fascinates.

Richardson was clearly a top prospect, and there is documentary proof that at least one publication at the time considered him "Drafted By K.C."

But he was never drafted.

So -- did this enthusiastic young baseball player misremember his past innocently?

The AP picked it up, ensuring widespread post-Thanksgiving play.

Needless to say -- not the best presidential clip.

Posted 11.24.05 10:25 PM | Comments (7)

November 23, 2005

Codey Not Interested In NJ Senate

And other news...

1. In a news conference today, acting NJ Gov Richard Codey said he did not want Gov-elect Jon Corzine to appoint him to fill Corzine's Senate seat. That's after a poll showed him defeating probable GOP challenger Tom Kean, Jr., in 2006. Mssrs. Pallone, Andrews and Menendez still want the job. Menendez is probably the favorite to get it.

2. The man who narrowly lost the Detroit mayor's race to incumbent Kwame Kilpatrick wants a hand recount. Freman Hendrix says there were discrpancies in preliminary vote totals and the final number recorded by elections officers.

3. Venezuela's Hugo Chavez supplies heating oil for Bill Delahunt's constituents.

4. Rep. Jim Kolbe (R-AZ) retires.

5. More Alito/CAP ties questioned.

Posted 11.23.05 06:06 PM | Comments (0)

November 22, 2005

Dem Netroots: Clark, Feingold and Warner

From Daily Kos's presidential preference straw poll of more than 11,600 readers of the world's most read political blog.

               Nov  Sept  Aug  July  June

Clark           26  34  35  34  26

Feingold        19  19  16  10  10

Warner          14   4   3   5   5

Edwards         12  10   7   7   8

H. Clinton       6   8   9  10  10

No Freakin' Clue 6   6   9  13  17

Richardson       5   3   4   4   4

Other            2   3   4   4   7

Kerry            2   2   1   2   2

Biden            1   3   3   3   3

Bayh             1   1   1   2   2

Vilsack          0   0   0   0   0

"While this isn't a scientific poll of the Democratic Party rank and file, at 11K+ results it's a pretty darn accurate poll of the sentiments of the Daily Kos community."

"The big winner in this poll is obviously Warner, who has gotten a huge 10-point boost out of Kaine's victory in Virginia and has become a sort of media darling...."

"The big loser was Clark, who shed eight points. Feingold's support was solid. Edwards may have gotten a bump for admitting he fucked up by voting to authorize force in Iraq. Hillary Clinton is increasingly aligned with the "stay the course" in Iraq faction of the party. And the longer she stays in that group, the more nakedly political her inevitable flip in favor of withdrawal will look. Because like it or not, Iraq will continue to grow as an issue."

Posted 11.22.05 03:05 PM | Comments (3)

DeLay Dealt Setback

Pat Priest, the judge overseeing Rep. Tom DeLay's felony trial in Texas today said he won't decide whether to drop charges until December, and probably wouldn't convene a trial until at least January.

When DeLay abdicated his post as majority leader on a temporary basis to Rep. Roy Blunt (R-MO), House Speaker Dennis Hastert promised Republicans that if DeLay wasn't out of trouble by January, he'd set a date for an election to fill the post permanently.

Today's news increases the chance that DeLay will not regain the leadership post. As we wrote yesterday, DeLay backers have told members of Congress that they expected Priest to drop the charges altogether.

At least two potential candidates -- Blunt and Ohio Rep. John Boehner -- have already begun to compile research on each other in anticipation of a race.

Both men, however, will wait until DeLay formally endorses the idea of an election before they begin to campaign for the position. [MARC AMBINDER]

Blunt's ambitions are well-known. Since his ascension to Delay's job, many House colleagues and GOP strategists have watched for clear markers of Blunt's performance. He convinced caucus moderates and budget hardliners to vote in favor of a reconciliation package, though the caucus suffered days of of embarassing postponments. Rep. Jim Nussle (R-IA), the budget cmte chair, told the St. Louis Post Dispatch that "This was the test for Roy and he passed it with flying colors." A lobbyist with close ties to the current GOP leadership: "No question things looked like they would unravel at 3p.m. last Thursday following the Labor-HHS vote loss, but many in my circles think the damage was undone when reconciliation passed." More, from the lobbyist: "I think sometimes being in this temporary role as majority leader actually hurts him because of the Pyrrhic nature of his victories." Others said Blunt's biggest test would be to hold the line on cuts when the bill is churned through a House/Senate conf. in Dec.

Some Republicans say that credit for the vote belongs to Hastert, who took the lead negotiating role, and that Blunt's lack of credibility with certain members of the conservative Republican Study Committee may have prolonged the debate. Blunt has a well-regarded network of lobbyists, but given the dictates of the House schedule, with the fall devoted to passing appropriations measures, has been unable to wield their influence on meaningful, non-budget legislation. Those lobbyists will help whip support for his campaign should he decide ro run.

Boehner's (R-OH) reputation with senior Republicans, sullied after his maverick role in spotlight abuses during the franking scandal and hurt further by a contentious leadership race in '98 and '00, is much improved. Though his natural base outside Ohio and the House Education and Workface Cmte is small, says a current leadership aide: "He's a work horse, very methodical and building lasting and important relationships without the Congress. And remember: he doesn't do earmarks. That's big for the RSC folks."

The RSC's own Rep. Mike Pence (R-IN) is an oft-mentioned candidate. He has a strong power base, but observers say his moving from ostensible union boss to management in two cycles would not the best move for him. Says one leadership aide: "He'd be a lot stronger on the outside" in a race, where he could serve as kingmaker

Other names mentioned as potential leadership candidates: Chief Minority Whip Eric Cantor (R-VA), NY Rep. Tom Reynolds, Rep. John Shaddeg (R-AZ),and Rep. Zach Wamp (R-TN.

Posted 11.22.05 02:36 PM | Comments (1)

When Will Warner Establish His Exploratory Cmte?

To get a head start raising hard dollars that he could use to seed a presidential campaign, Howard Dean opened his exploratory account in May of 2002, the earliest of any of the major Dem '04 contenders.

Judging by how public his play has been, here's betting that VA Gov. Mark Warner opens his account very early, too. An early exploratory account demonstrates a serious commitment to the race in the eyes of activists, fundraisers and donors who might otherwise be awed by the Clinton machine. (Warner can't transfer money he raises from his PAC into a federal campaign account.)

Forward Together PAC's senior adviser Mame Reiley sent an e-mail to PAC supporters this afternoon touting the "terrific" response to Warner "everywhere we went" as "folks up north got their first chance to hear the Governor share the approach that has proven so popular in Virginia."

She then quotes a blogger who touted Warner's presidential dimensions:

"Warner is exciting for many reasons, but particularly because he has an 80% approval rating, a recognized status as one of the best managing state governers [sic] in America, and a consistent track record of defeating Republicans in one of the more Red states, Virginia... Warner also has some other attractive qualities, such as a great presence... a desire to run America well and reasonably, and the rare talent of honest inspiration."

Even Warner's own blogger, MyDD's famous Jerome Armstrong, doesn't seem to have read the script for potential presidential hopefuls, who are fond of demurrals and shrugs of shoulders when talking about their presidential aspirations. Armstrong describers Warner's recent speech in New Hampshire thusly: "One one staffer from a former `04 campaign remarked to me, 'I came in here just looking" and that he was blown away, saying afterward, 'he's our guy.'"

We'll take bets on precisely when Warner will open his exploratory account. May of 2006, anyone?
[MARC AMBINDER]

Posted 11.22.05 02:03 PM | Comments (2)

Rendon-ancy

We've been surprised with how little attention has been paid to what we thought was a blockbuster profile of communications strategist John Rendon by James Bamford in the current issue of Rolling Stone.

The piece essentially pegs Rendon as the "source of the Nile" when it comes to selling the Iraq War. Well, not surprisingly, Rendon wasn't very pleased with the profile and posted, on his company web site, the letter-to-the-editor they sent Rolling Stone. [CHUCK TODD]

Rendon's history with the Defense Dept. and CIA is fascinating, considering that he got his start in DC as a Dem strategist. As one acquaintence of Rendon's tells us of their experience with Rendon during the Carter campaign, "I thought he was a true believer."

Rendon, in the letter, takes issue with a number of points Bamford makes: including Rendon's supposed role with Judy Miller's reporting and most importantly, that Rendon had any role "in making the case for the Iraq war, here at home or internationally."

BTW, Rendon also disputes the menu Bamford described the two sharing during the rare on-the-record interview Rendon granted.

Posted 11.22.05 12:55 PM | Comments (1)

MoveOn's Turkey Day Ad

MoveOn.org will air a stark television ad that chides GOP members of Congress for, in MoveOn's words, "failing to provide a specific plan" for bringing home U.S. troops from Iraq.

You'll first see it on national cable on Thanksgiving day.

Beginning Monday, the ad will also run in the districts of Rep. Phil Gingrey (R-GA), Duncan Hunter (R-CA), Geoff Davis (R-KY), Jack Kingston (R-GA), Steve King (R-IA), Rodney Frelinghuysen (R-NJ), J.D. Hayworth (R-AZ)...and, of course, Rep. Jean Schmidt (R-OH).

The text:

MoveOn.org Political Action
TV :30

“Thanksgiving”

VIDEO
OPEN ON A FAMILY SEATED AROUND THE TABLE AT THANKSGIVING DINNER. THEY ARE HOLDING HANDS, THEIR HEADS BOWED IN PRAYER.

AUDIO
ANNOUNCER (VO): Some folks won't be home this holiday season.

VIDEO
CUT TO SHOT OF FORLORN SOLDIERS IN IRAQ WITH MESS KITS.

AUDIO
ANNOUNCER (VO): A hundred and fifty thousand American men and women are stuck in Iraq.

VIDEO
CUT TO SHOT OF BUSH AND CHENEY, WALKING SIDE BY SIDE.

AUDANNOUNCER (VO): Their president misled America to send them in and has no plan to get them out.

VIDEO
CUT BACK TO DINNER TABLE. A WOMAN IN TEARS IS BEING COMFORTED BY FAMILY MEMBERS.

AUDIO
ANNOUNCER (VO): Democrats in Congress are leading the way home.

VIDEO
CUT TO THANKSGIVING TABLE SPREAD AND ONE EMPTY CHAIR.

AUDIO
ANNOUNCER (VO): Where are the Republicans?

VIDEO
STAY ON IMAGE OF EMPTY CHAIR, SUPER "CALL YOUR REPRESENTATIVE: (202) 224-3121."

AUDIO
ANNOUNCER (VO): Tell your representative. Support our troops. Bring them home.

VIDEO
AT SCREEN BOTTOM, SUPER FULL LEGAL DISCLAIMER: PAID FOR BY MOVEON.ORG POLITICAL ACTION, WWW.POLITICAL.MOVEON.ORG. NOT authorized by any candidate or candidate's committee. Moveon.ORG POLITICAL ACTION is responsible for the content of thIs ADVERTISEMENT

AUDIO
ANNOUNCER (VO): MoveOn.org Political Action is responsible for the content of this advertisement.

###

Posted 11.22.05 10:44 AM | Comments (0)

It's a slow news day when...

...the press gets tired of saying HRC is runnning for president and instead begins to say that she's not doing enough to run for president.

Oh -- wait -- scratch that. Same city, different paper. She is running, and she's running as a pro-war Dem, therefore ensuring that the "anti-Hillary" candidate will be anti-war.

Imagine that -- the entire '08 cycle deconstructed in a single newspaper on a single day.

Posted 11.22.05 10:05 AM | Comments (1)

Telll us what you're thankful for...

As the Hotline prepares for the Thanksgiving holiday, we'd like to know what our readers are thankful for...

Posted 11.22.05 08:36 AM | Comments (4)

November 21, 2005

National Party $$

Below are the omnibus receipt and disbursement totals from the six major campaign committees through 10/31. We can think of at least seven spins:
--The GOP has raised approx. 50% more than the Dems
--The NRSC's poor performance sticks out like a sore thumb
--The NRSC is a victim of crowding out by the RNC's stellar performance
--The NRCC has a nearly two-to-one CoH advantage of the DCCC, which augurs well for '06
--The DCCC is enjoying a record fundraising year
--The DNC is enjoying record off-off year fundraising
--The GOP is outspending the Dems monthly
See the numbers, including our calculation of each committee's average burn rate, after the jump. [MARC AMBINDER]

Numbers in millions of dollars.


            Oct.      Oct      Cash
            Receipts  Spent    On-Hand      YTD Receipts    Avg. burn rate** 
Democrats
DNC          6.8       5.9        6.1        47.6           93.2%
DCCC         1.5       2.2        10.6       34.5           77.5%
DSCC         3.0       1.69       20.3       35.1           47%
TOTALS       11.3      9.8        37.0       117.2           ----

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

            Oct         Oct        Cash           
            Receipts    Spent       On-Hand    YTD Receipts       Avg. burn rate** 
Republicans
RNC         7.5           7.2       34.3        88.5       79.3%
NRCC        4.2           2.7       19.0        56.8       76.1%
NRSC        2.35         2.64        9.1        30.6       81%
TOTALS      14.05       11.54       62.4       175.9             ----

** Average burn rate refers to the proportion of money spent per month as a percentage of receipts, less cash-on-hand at the beginning of the year. ^ -- the DCCC reports approx. 2.2m in debts and obligations

Posted 11.21.05 03:54 PM | Comments (13)

A New Warner?

For those who have closely followed VA Gov. Mark Warner's (D) career in the Commonwealth, his address to NH state Sen. Dems on 11/18 (rebroadcast on C-Span's Road to the White House last night) offered a few surprises. Well one, actually: his forthright acknowledgment of -- and pride in -- being a Dem.

Yes, he sounded his usual Warnerian themes about the importance of getting past the old political labels, but we cannot recall the last time Warner touted his credentials as an ex-DNC staffer AND former Hill staffer. Best, though, was telling the Yankee audience: "I'm not actually from VA" and then going on to explain his New England roots. [JONATHAN MARTIN]

Posted 11.21.05 03:51 PM | Comments (4)

Miller Time For Sanford

SC Gov. Mark Sanford is announcing today that Jason Miller, currently in the role of campaign manager for Sen. George Allen's '06 re-elect, is coming on board the re-election campaign. Title TBD.

Miller, always the campaign junkie, is leaving Allen amicably. He's simply looking for something to do more competitively for the '06 cycle.

Miller: "Sanford is expected to have a more competitive and more spirited re-election campaign than Sen. Allen will." Sources tell us that since Mark Warner announced he would not challenge Allen in '06, Miller's received several offers to work a more competitive race in '06.

He'll be moving to Columbia, SC at the beginning of Dec.

We'll let all you Allen conspiracy theorists decide whether having a former staffer learning the ropes in SC is beneficial to Allen's presidential aspirations.

Also, Miller, a.k.a. "Spike" is leaving on "excellent terms." For those that don't know, Allen's a nickname guy and "Spike" has been Miller's nickname since the start because "he didn't look like a Jason."

No announcement as of yet on who'll deal with the formality that is Allen's '06 re-election. [CHUCK TODD]

Posted 11.21.05 03:22 PM | Comments (0)

Be In Congress; Get January Off

That's right... when Congress ends its work in the middle of December, House members will have more than a full month -- through Jan. 31, as of now -- to spend in their districts, go on vacation, raise money for their re-election campaigns and for their friends, and otherwise help depress hired car income in Washington.

Posted 11.21.05 03:09 PM | Comments (0)

MT Dems Attack Burns In New Statewide Ad

Hoping to push Sen. Conrad Burns' Senate seat into more competitive territory, the Montana Democratic Party is up with a pre-Thanksgiving television ad lambasting Burns for his ties to lobbyist Jack Abramoff. Several Dems, including state auditor John Morrison and state senate pres. Jon Tester (a farmer), are challenging Burns. It's hard to tell if the Abramoff fallout has hurt Burns in the state; this ad is but one suggestion that Dems do not believe it has yet to do so. While Burns's job approval rating is at an ebb for him (48% at last glance -- hardly stellar for an incumbent) -- polls show that Burns remains personally popular -- even Dem polls suggest that about half of voters have an "excllent" or "good" impression of him -- so the key task for Dems in the state is to raise his negatives over the next six months.

Morrison and Tester, relatively unknown to voters at this early stage, are likely to train their fire at Burns, rather than at each other, although a spirited primary in this state with a new, spirited Dem governor is assured.[MARC AMBINDER]

Narrator:

"Almost 200,000 women work in Montana. But local newspapers report that Senator Burns told a working mother concerned about losing her job to outsourcing that she could just stay home with the kids."

"Burns doesn't get that staying at home won't pay the bills."

"And what is Burns up to?"

"He's taken thousands from Washington lobbyist Jack Abramoff, now indicted for fraud and conspiracy."

"Tell Burns to work for Montana's working families, not indicted lobbyists."

"The Montana Democratic Party is responsible for the content of this ad.

Posted 11.21.05 02:48 PM | Comments (0)

Americans For Job Security Pops Up In PA

Been wondering when Americans for Job Security would pop up? Look no further than PA, where AJS is running a 30-sec. TV ad touting Sen. Rick Santorum (R) 11/15-11/30 in the Pittsburgh, Harrisburg, Erie, Scranton, Wilkes-Barre, and Johnstown-Altoona markets (i.e. everywhere except Philly.) The buy is costing approx. $450K. [TODAY'S HOTLINE]

Full script:

ANNCR: "Most Saturdays, they get together in the park, 8 a.m. sharp. Pennsylvania families relax a little more these days because Rick Santorum is getting things done everyday. Over $300 billion in tax relief, eliminating the marriage penalty, increasing the per-child tax credit -- all done. And now, Rick Santorum's fighting to eliminate unfair taxes on family businesses. Call and say thanks, because Rick Santorum is the one getting it done" (TNSMI/CMAG).

Responds Treas. Bob Casey. Jr. (D) manager Jay Reiff: "Rick Santorum should be honest with the people of Pennsylvania and bring his backers out of the shadows. I call on Santorum to join me in calling on all groups running ads in the Senate race to disclose their donors. ... Santorum's special interest friends are skirting campaign finance law by running ads while keeping silent on who's paying for the ads. What are they hiding?"

Posted 11.21.05 01:36 PM | Comments (3)

Can Hil Top Bill?

Here's an extended excerpt from Chuck Todd's On The Trail buzz column from last week. (Subscribers get the full column, archives, and Chuck's wisdom a week before you do!)

When searching for potential Democratic roadblocks to Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's likely march toward the 2008 Democratic nomination, a few candidates stand out. One is New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson. If a Democratic consultant were trying to create the ideal presidential candidate, Richardson would be the model.

For the last two weeks, we've been immersed in all things Richardson in preparation for an on-camera interview we conducted with him for C-SPAN's "After Words." This meant, among other things, reading Richardson's book, "Between Worlds."

As we said in the interview, the book felt incomplete and somewhat unfocused at times. Richardson has had a fascinating career in public service and could have easily narrowed the book's context to his run-ins with world thugs and other notorious figures in American and world politics. Is there another person on this planet who can claim to have sat down face-to-face with Fidel Castro, Saddam Hussein, Slobodon Milosevic and Monica Lewinsky?

The book could have also narrowed its focus to the issues Americans will face as the country becomes majority-minority. New Mexico is one of just a handful of states where no ethnic group represents more than 50 percent of the population. And he's on the frontlines of the next great battle in the culture wars: immigration.

In the absence of a concentration on a particular issue, the book becomes more memoir than anything else. And despite everything we thought we knew about Richardson, we learned quite a bit about the man and his fascinating background. Apart from his gargantuan ego, we came away more impressed with his credentials as a major presidential candidate even while having doubts about whether 2008 will be his year.

If a Democratic consultant were trying to create the ideal presidential candidate, Richardson would be the model: He's a sitting Western governor from a red state who has vast experience in foreign affairs, including first-hand experiences in countries of the highest concern to this country. He's an ethnic mix of Northeastern blue blood and Mexican but has a governing ideology that's pro-business with left-of-center tendencies. He's a Latino in appearance with a gringo last name who speaks fluent Spanish. All future presidential candidates should have experienced electoral defeat at least once (Richardson's done that) and all should have an incredible ambition that borders on overdrive which launched their career. (Richardson has that, just look at how he carpetbagged his way into New Mexico's congressional delegation in a mere four years of taking up residency.)

The only thing the lab would add that Richardson's missing is a stable full of kids, military experience (he got out of Vietnam thanks to a deviated septum) and, shall we say, a svelter physique. Still, Richardson has a potent background and resume that, judging from the 2004 results, should be the antidote to all that ails the Democratic Party.

But for some reason, in the national Democratic salons that we believe still matter (particularly for fundraising), Richardson's not viewed as top tier in the 2008 anti-Hillary presidential sweepstakes. Democrats Evan Bayh, John Edwards and Mark Warner wish they had the background of Richardson and yet all, at least for right now, are viewed higher on the presidential pecking order than New Mexico's popular governor.

We attribute Richardson's struggles in the national Democratic circuit to a whisper campaign that contends he's a bit reckless and "unpresidential" (whatever that means). This is a reputation that's likely been earned by the fact that he's got a coarse, or blunt, way of speaking to folks in private or semi-private situations. If you didn't know him, you could even come away offended. (John McCain is this way with reporters as well.) To his credit, Richardson doesn't try to hide this side of his personality in his book, which has a few choice "blue" words.

There's a "soft" side missing to Richardson's personality that also has us wondering if he's just not going to be able to appeal to women as well as other Democrats have in the past. Married women over 40 are still the great swing vote of American politics and our guess is that he doesn't make the best first impression with this key demographic. Then again, the toughness that his personality emits is something that's usually missing from Democratic candidates on all levels.

Before sitting down with him and reading his memoir, we had Richardson pegged as someone who was cautiously ambitious and would wait his turn even if he didn't like waiting. Translation: If Bill Clinton asked him not to run against his Hillary in 2008, Richardson would postpone his presidential ambitions.

After spending so much time getting to know Richardson, we're not so sure of that analysis. He is a politician who makes a lot of gut decisions that sometimes seem silly -- and ridiculously self-serving -- at first and yet have allowed him to pile up an impressive list of accomplishments. His first run for Congress should have been treated as a joke and it was by the national party. But Richardson defied the odds and came from nowhere to make a real race and only narrowly lost to one of New Mexico's Republican icons at the time.

Richardson bullied his way to the top of New Mexico politics and did so without ever waiting his turn, which leads us to believe he is a sure-bet to run in 2008 -- no matter how unstoppable Clinton appears. He wants the presidency as badly as any candidate we've seen in a long time. Richardson also knows that if he doesn't run in 2008 and someone from his party wins, there won't be another shot for an ambitious Democrat like himself until 2016.

Candidate Richardson has some flaws, but barring some skeleton he's failed to reveal, they are flaws he can overcome. Dismiss his chances in 2008 at your own peril.

Posted 11.21.05 12:58 PM | Comments (3)

DeLay's Big Day Tuesday

Is there a chance that Rep. Tom DeLay's Texas legal troubles end tomorrow? We're sure DeLay pays his team to be confident, but a variety of sources close to the majority leader are leaning into the idea that it's quite possible judge Pat Priest will throw out the felony indictments against him.

DeLay appears in court tomorrow, where his attorneys will argue that motion, along with a motion to speed the case to trial.

When DeLay stepped down as Maj. Leader after being indicted, House Speaker Dennis Hastert promised the caucus an election for the post in early Jan, provided DeLay was still in legal limbo. DeLay's Hammer team, including Rep. John Doolittle of CA and Rep. John Carter of TX, have quite admirably succeeded in convincing potential Maj. Leader candidates to keep their power dry -- and convincing colleagues that Delay would return.

It's hard to say for sure, but there are probably a good number of GOPers in the House who don't want DeLay to return -- but an equal number who miss his effectiveness. (Temporary Maj. Leader Roy Blunt's reviews are mixed.)

Today's Hotline will have more on the DeLay situation and on the potential scenarios should his legal woes extend through the new year. [MARC AMBINDER]

Posted 11.21.05 12:33 PM | Comments (0)

November 19, 2005

Obama Top Billed At Fla Dem Conference

Kinda says something when IL Sen. Barack Obama is slated to be the top bill at next month's Florida Democratic Party conference in Orlando, especially when three potential presidential candidates -- Vilsack, Warner, Edwards -- are also speaking.

Not sure exactly what it says -- maybe "Fla Dems Looking to HRC's Successor?"

Maybe that Obama is the biggest party rock star since HRC? Maybe that Robert Gibbs just does a heckuva job?

BTW: if Nussle wins IA Gov, does that effectively put the kibosh on Vilsack's presidential aspirations?

Posted 11.19.05 01:16 PM | Comments (1)

The Ohio Dispatch Poll Non-Mystery

Our favorite non-mysterious Mystery Pollster has posted a tour de force on his websiter this morning regarding the Columbus Dispatch mail-in poll before the statwide initiative vote two Tuesdays ago. (See Hotline polling editor Aoife McCarthy's Margin for Error for more.)

"For what it's worth," Pollster tells us in an e-mail, "this piece touches a couple of different angles: -- The obvious one, for pollsters and campaign people about why the poll was wrong. -- My response to the .... new "fraud" conspiracy theories coming Fitrakis, Wasserman and Friedman on the blogosphere's extreme left wing. -- An implicit story suggestion for investigative reporters in Ohio (see the last paragraph)."

We hope you'll check it out.

Posted 11.19.05 01:08 PM | Comments (0)

November 18, 2005

November Senate Cmte Reports

THe DSCC has $20.3 million on hand, compared to the NRSC's $9.3 million. The NRSC continues to outspend the Dems.

Full numbers after the jump.

DSCC October 2005 Filing

Total Raised in October: $3.03 million

Total Raised YTD: $35.1 million

Cash on Hand: $20.39 million

Total Spent October: $1.69 million

Total Spent YTD: $15 million

NRSC October 2005 Filing

Total Raised in October: $2.35 million

Total Raised YTD: $30.58 million

Cash on Hand: $9.13 million

Total Spent October: $2.64 million

Total Spent YTD: $22.47 million

Posted 11.18.05 06:01 PM | Comments (3)

House Goes Nuclear

Emotions runneth over on the floor of the House. Just now, brand new rep Rep. Jean Schmidt (R-OH). quoting a Marine friend from back home,
addressed Murtha: "cowards cut and run and marines stay and fight."

The place went batty, and Schmidt's words are being taken down. The chair suspended floor action.

Posted 11.18.05 05:32 PM | Comments (9)

Weekend Wonderments

As we watch a nasty but somewhat refreshingly honest debate on the floor of the House, here are other stories to chew on as we head into the weekend...

1. The GA Voter ID requirement fight. Was the DOJ's preclearance the result of political pressure? Did the GA GOPer who sponsored the measure really say that blacks won't vote unless they're paid?

2. The NAACP's Orlando head switches party affiliations.

3. The FEC says a group of political blogs trigger the press exemption from federal campaign finance laws.

4. Bob Woodward tells Time that he prompted his source to confess to Fitzgerald.

Posted 11.18.05 04:38 PM | Comments (0)

Murtha Res. Update

Right now, the House is debating rules for the upcoming vote on what the GOP is calling the "Murtha" resolution. But the GOP's version is not Murtha's resolution, which below the jump.

Whereas, Congress and the American People have not been shown clear, measurable progress toward establishment of stable and improving security in Iraq or of a stable and improving economy in Iraq, both of which are essential to "promote the emergence of a democratic government";

Whereas, additional stabilization in Iraq by U, S. military forces cannot be achieved without the deployment of hundreds of thousands of additional U.S. troops, which in turn cannot be achieved without a military draft;

Whereas, more than $277 billion has been appropriated by the United States Congress to prosecute U.S. military action in Iraq and Afghanistan;

Whereas, as of the drafting of this resolution, 2,079 U.S. troops have been killed in Operation Iraqi Freedom;

Whereas, U.S. forces have become the target of the insurgency,

Whereas, according to recent polls, over 80 percent of the Iraqi people want U.S. forces out of Iraq;

Whereas, polls also indicate that 45 percent of the Iraqi people feel that the attacks on U.S. forces are justified;

Whereas, due to the foregoing, Congress finds it evident that continuing U.S. military action in Iraq is not in the best interests of the United States of America, the people of Iraq, or the Persian Gulf Region, which were cited in Public Law 107-243 as justification for undertaking such action;

Therefore be it Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, that:

Section 1. The deployment of United States forces in Iraq, by direction of Congress, is hereby terminated and the forces involved are to be redeployed at the earliest practicable date.

Section 2. A quick-reaction U.S. force and an over-the-horizon presence of U.S Marines shall be deployed in the region.

Section 3. The United States of America shall pursue security and stability in Iraq through diplomacy.

Posted 11.18.05 04:24 PM | Comments (6)

From House Race Hotline: Dem Vets Running

From today's House Race Hotline: "DCCC Exec Dir. John Lapp, in a chat 11/17, lists all the declared Dem candidates who are military veterans. They are:

• Chris Carney (PA 10): LtComm in the U.S. Naval Reserve; from '03 to 8/04, served as Special Advisor to the Ass't Sec/Def for Special Ops; activated for Operation Enduring Freedom and Noble Eagle
• Andrew Duck (MD 06): Intel. Liaison Officer and Intel Staff Officer in Iraq; one of 17 children
• Tim Dunn (NC 08): in U.S. Marine Corps Reserves; in '95, established his own law firm
• Jay Fawcett (CO 05): Awarded Bronze Star after serving in first Gulf War
• Steve Filson (CA 11): retired from Navy in '94
• David Harris (TX 06): Deployed to Iraq in 2/03, spending 14 months there as a Logistics Officer. Now Ass't Prof. of Military Science at UT-Arlington.
• Bryan Lentz (PA 07): commanded a civil affairs unit in Iraq responsible for reconstruction in Mosul
• Eric Massa (NY 29): Served in Desert Storm, and as Spec. Ass't to Gen. Wesley Clark, served as staff on Armed Services Cmte.
• Patrick Murphy (PA 08): Served in Iraq, awarded Bronze Star in 2/04
• Joe Sulzer (OH 18): Vietnam veteran, and later mayor of Chillicothe, OH
• Tim Walz (MN 01): A Command Sergeant; served overseas in Iraq during Operation Enduring Freedom
• Mike Weaver (KY 02): Joined Navy at age of 17, served for 4 years

Posted 11.18.05 03:57 PM | Comments (6)

McCain and George Wallace, Jr.

UPDATED...

As part of his tour of the Deep South, Sen. John McCain is set to endorse AL LG candidate George Wallace, Jr. (R). Those unfamiliar with Wallace will wonder: is the younger man a chip off the father's block? So is McCain campaigning for a guy who holds controversial views on race?

The liberal Southern Poverty Law Center says Wallace recently addressed the Council of Conservative Citizens, a group that skirts the boundary of polite discourse on race (to say the least.)

Wallace told the AP: "There is nothing hateful about those people I've seen."

Here are two mission statements from the CCC's website: "We believe that the United States derives from and is an integral part of European civilization and the European people and that the American people and government should remain European in their composition and character. We also oppose all efforts to mix the races of mankind, to promote non-white races over the European-American people through so-called "affirmative action" and similar measures, to destroy or denigrate the European-American heritage, including the heritage of the Southern people, and to force the integration of the races."

But the NAACP once honored Wallace, Jr. with a Freedom award. And Wallace, who switched parties a few years ago, has built solid relations with black leaders in AL. By several accounts, he's involved in outreach to black voters in AL on behalf of Republicans. Observers of the state politics say he's been a careful steward of his father's legacy, warts and all.

John Weaver, a top McCain adviser, tells us: "George Wallace Jr., is an enlightened progressive leader who always speaks of tolerance and carries forth his father's views at the end of his life. He has strong support across the racial and political spectrum." [MARC AMBINDER]

Posted 11.18.05 03:47 PM | Comments (0)

GOP Tries To Call Murtha's "Bluff"

We can now confirm that there will be a "Murtha Vote" later this p.m. Speaker Dennis Hastert's spokesperson Ron Bonjean tells The Hotline that it's a "vote to send a message to our American troops that we believe in their mission of fighting terrorists and we must not retreat and defeat."

Angered by what he saw as House Dems "applauding but then backing off" Murtha's statement on 11/17, Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R-AZ) rose this a.m. at the House GOP Conference and suggested that they call for a vote to force Dems to show "where they stand to the American people," according to his spokesperson Larry VanHoose. Hayworth's call was met with what VanHoose described as "enthusiastic applause" from the rank-and-file GOP.

Pushing aside votes on extending the tax cuts, reauthorizing the Patriot Act and a long-awaited measure on federal flood insurance, the GOP leadership has turned Hayworth's idea into a resolution and will bring it to floor of the House for a vote by 7 pm, according to senior GOP leadership sources.

The question now is what Leader Pelosi and her caucus will do. After keeping her Dems in line on both major fiscal votes on 11/17, does she stick them all in cabs and push them off to DCA, IAD and BWI? Or will some Dems from conservative or military-heavy districts insist on staying and casting their "nays?"

CNN is reporting that Dems are planning on having just Murtha debate the resolution, but it remains to be seen how and if the rest of the caucus votes.

Here's a draft of the resolution:

Draft text of the expected resolution is attached and below.

H.Res. __

Expressing the sense of the House of Representatives that the deployment of United States forces in Iraq be terminated immediately.

Resolved, That it is the sense of the House of Representatives that the deployment of United States forces in Iraq be terminated immediately. [JONATHAN MARTIN AND MARC AMBINDER

Posted 11.18.05 02:44 PM | Comments (38)

Harkin Teaches Brad Pitt A Lesson

Lost in the fizz of yesterday's Hill bedlam was a quiet visit paid to Sen. Tom Harkin (D-IA) by actor Brad Pitt.

When Pitt's team first requested the meeting with the Iowa senator, they laid down some conditions: clear the office. Don't introduce Pitt to anyone. Don't talk about the visit ahead of time.

But we're told the senator didn't take kindly to being told what to do in the confines of his own office.

So when Pitt, sporting black hair and a bushy beard, showed up around 2:00 pm, every available member of the Harkin staff -- even if they were busy -- was arrayed around the office. Harkin proceeded to introduce them to Pitt, one by one. "He got the personal introduction, along with their function and everthing else," says someone who was there.

When they did manage to speak privately, Pitt and Harkin discussed Africa and trade issues.[JEREMY PELZER AND MARC AMBINDER]

Posted 11.18.05 02:22 PM | Comments (64)

Weekend Calendar

Every Friday, the Hotline lists the weekend travel of potential 2008 presidential candidates. And we regularly update our WH '08 Tracking documents (See here, for Democrats, and here for Republicans) so you can keep tabs on your favorite -- or your potential opponent. Check it out -- we've got details of every major trip taken in 2005 by every potential candidate.

• Sen. George Allen (R-VA) travels to London, England to meet with Amb. Robert Tuttle on Saturday, then to Islamabad, Pakistan on Sunday for meetings with Pres. Musharraf and other Pakistani leaders. He also meets with U.S troops. Monday brings Allen to New Dehli for a meeting with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, lunch at the Indian Institute of Technology, and dinner in Bangalore. On Tuesday, Allen tours the John Welch Technology Center in Bangalore. He swings through Bangkok, Thailand on 11/23 and ends the day in Shenzen, China. On Thanksgiving, Allen tours the Oracle Research and Development Center and dines with Amb. Clark T. Randt in Beijing. He meets with PRC officials on 11/25. On Saturday, 11/26, Allen spends the day in Taipei, Taiwan and meets with President Chen Shui-bian.
• Sen. Sam Brownback (R-KS) will spend this weekend and Thanksgiving in KS.
• Sen. Bill Frist (R-TN) has no public events.
• Ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani attends a conference in Spain this weekend. He has no public events through the Thanksgiving holiday.
• AR Gov. Mike Huckabee is down in AR.
• Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) on 11/18 travels to Mississippi for an appearance at the Trent Lott Leadership Institute. He later pals around with Lott a football game. McCain appears on tonight's Late Show with David Letterman. On 11/20, McCain signs his book in Columbia, SC, and attends a fundraiser for AG Henry McMaster in Charleston, SC. On 11/21, McCain travels to AL to endorse LG candidate George Wallace, Jr.
• Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA) is down in MA
• Rep. Tom Tancredo (R-CO) has a full weekend of events in IA, including an 11/19 appearance at a fundraiser for Rep. Steve King in Alta. On 11/21, he travels to CA to campaign with CA 48 candidate Jim Gilchrist.
• Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN) spends three days in Northern CA raising money for his PAC and meeting with local Dems.
• Sen. Joe Biden is in CA and DE this weekend. On 11/21 delivers what's billed as a "major Iraq speech" in NY at the Council on Foreign Relations.
• Ret. Gen. Wes Clark today keynotes the Tenth Anniversary of the Dayton Peace Agreement Policy Forum in OH.
• Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-NY) attends the Westchester Arts Council 40th Anniversary Reception and Gala in Rye Brook, NY.
• Ex-Sen. John Edwards (D-NC) returns from India this weekend and spends Thanksgiving in NC. On 11/21, he attends a Raising the States fundraiser for NC House Dems in Raleigh.
• Gov. Mark Warner (D-VA) spends the weekend in New Hampshire. Today, he speaks to the NH Senate Dem Caucus.

 (Back to Contents)

Posted 11.18.05 02:00 PM | Comments (0)

Putting Dems On The Record

The Hotline has learned that the House GOP leadership might bring a symbolic, but politically charged, resolution to the floor today that would force Dems to register an up-or-down vote on Rep. John Murtha's call for U.S. troops to immediately withdraw from Iraq. The pre-Thanksgiving recess vote will force Dems to go on the record on one of the year's most sensitive issues and provide the NRCC a roll call vote on the so-called "cut and run" question going into '06. [JONATHAN MARTIN]

Update: Rep. J.D. Hayworth is the prime mover of this idea. AS of 2pm ET, House GOP leaders are mulling it over.

Posted 11.18.05 01:20 PM | Comments (2)

Behind The Scenes Of The Budget Vote

One GOP leadership source said that the approps loss was worth sustaining because it then allowed "moderates to 'breathe'" before taking what the leadership viewed to be a tougher and more important vote on the budget bill.

A GOP leadership source tells us they knew they had the votes to win on the budget bill going in (including the expected 'no's'), but that "the only surprise was" Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX), "who [conservative] RSC members had assured us was a 'yes.'

This source added that they knew that Rep. Leanord Boswell (D-IA) was not there to vote, but that the absence of Rep. Edolphus Towns (D-NY) was the "icing on the cake and gave us the 2 vote breathing room" for the win.

One CoS for a moderate GOPer said that the arm-twisting was targeted, as GOP leaders "left the 'hard no's' alone and went after those who were obtainable." Another GOP CoS said that [Energy and Commerce Cmte Chair Rep. Joe] Barton "got beat up pretty good" [HOTLINE STAFF]

Posted 11.18.05 01:08 PM | Comments (1)

Blog Hill

Yesterday we attended the Senate GOP conf.'s pen-and-pad event for right-leaning bloggers, much like the one the House GOP caucus held last month. Three WH '08 candidates showed up -- four, if you count Rick Santorum (whose re-election in '06 is anything but assured). Sen. George Allen (VA) went first, and while we missed it, he came ready to talk about his proposal to ban taxes on broadband access. Sam Brownback (KS) used the first few minutes of his time to call attention to the "least-reported humanitarian disaster in the world" -- the ongoing Congo Civil War.

For more on the event, including John Thune's blogger triumphalism, Maj. Leader Bill Frist getting a little wacky and an impromptu strategy session that followed, check out today's edition of the Blogometer. [WILLIAM BEUTLER]

Posted 11.18.05 12:54 PM | Comments (1)

RNC's Video Press Release

The RNC's new TV ad in Las Vegas is little more than a deliberate poke in the eye to Min. Leader Harry Reid. According to a knowledgable Nevada source, the buy there is less than $5K for airing during the three network Sunday shows. And no buy in Reno, the more conservative market in the state. [MARC AMBINDER]

Posted 11.18.05 12:45 PM | Comments (0)

Interesting Loudoun Co. Polling

Communities for Quality Education,a left-leaning advocacy group, asked Dem pollster Al Quinlan to survey Loudoun Co., VA residents about the 11/8 election.

Among their unreleased findings: Bush's disapproval percentage in Loudoun, which he won in 2004 by 12 points, was 53%. Gov. Mark Warner's approval: 75-18%. Transportation and education topped the list of issues of most concern to voters there.

Not surprisingly, the CQE touts findings that show voters want more $$ for their schools. Interesting to us is Loudouners relative lack of concern about social issues, another bit of evidence that most folks in this fast growing exurban county have a libertarian streak to them and are more concerned about the ability of government institutions to keep up with growth. [MARC AMBINDER]

Posted 11.18.05 10:43 AM | Comments (1)

GOP Slams Reid...In NV

The Republican National Committee has taken the unusual step of broadcasting an ad to rebut the claims of Democratic Leader Harry Reid that President Bush deliberately distorted intelligence to persuade Congress to go to war.

The ad will air on national cable channels and in select local markets, including Las Vegas, the largest in Reid's home state of Nevada.

The ad features audio quotations from Democrats -- including Reid -- speaking about the danger Saddam Hussein posed to Iraq and to America. It ends with a s