November 09, 2005
Get Yer GOP Talking Points
Below... hot off the presses.ELECTION '05 TALKING POINTS ELECTION '05 TALKING POINTS Top Line Talking Points • Tonight was a vote for the status quo. We began the night with 28 GOP governorships and we concluded the evening with the same amount. • The two gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia are not determinate of larger trends. Each was a race unique unto itself. • In these off-year races, the electorate is focused on local issues, and whether the candidates represent their values and beliefs. Success in '05 • Republicans won the Virginia Lt. Governor's race with Bill Bolling defeating Leslie Byrne 51% to 49%, and in the Attorney General's race it appears Bob McDonnell defeated Creigh Deeds. • Republican Michael Bloomberg won re-election with over 55% of the mayoral vote in New York City. National Implications • In 2001, in a post-9/11 environment, President Bush's approval ratings were at historic levels yet Democrats easily won the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial races. • Even with their 2001 victories, Democrats were still incapable of picking up ground in the midterms. In 2002, Republicans picked up two seats in the Senate and six in the House. • In 1997, with Bill Clinton near a 60% approval rating, the GOP won governor's races in Virginia and New Jersey, but in 1998 Democrats picked up five seats in the House. • In 1998 and 2002, historical trends of mid-term elections were bucked, and the previous year's gubernatorial results were no indication whatsoever of what happened in the federal elections. • Our success in VA down-ballot races demonstrates that these local races have more to so with candidates and local issues, than the national environment. National Implications of VA Gubernatorial Election Year VA Gov Winner President Following Cycle's House Change Following Cycle's Senate Change 2001 Warner (D) Bush (R) D -8 D -2 1997 Gilmore (R) Clinton (D) R -5 No Change 1993 Allen (R) Clinton (D) R +54 R +9 1989 Wilder (D) Bush (R) D +7 D +1 1985 Baliles (D) Reagan (R) D +5 D +8 1981 Robb (D) Reagan (R) D +27 No Change 1977 Dalton (R) Carter (D) R +15 R +3 1973 Godwin (R) Nixon (R) R -48 R -4 1969 Holton (R) Nixon (R) R -12 R +1 1965 Godwin (D) Johnson (D) D -48 D -4 1961 Harrison (D) Johnson (D) D -4 D +2 1957 Almond (D) Eisenhower (R) D +49 D +16 1953 Stanley (D) Eisenhower (R) D +29 D +1 1949 Battle (D) Truman (D) D -28 D -5 1945 Tuck (D) Truman (D) D -54 D -12 • Since World War II, the president's party has won the Virginia governorship just six times, and not at all since 1973. • In seven out of the fifteen Virginia gubernatorial elections since World War II, the party that won the governorship has gone on to win more seats in the U.S. House in the following year's election. In eight of the fifteen elections, the winning party has gone on to lose seats in the House. • Similarly, in eight of the fifteen Virginia elections over the same timeframe, the party that won the governorship won more seats in the U.S. Senate the following year. Five times, they lost seats and twice there was no change in the Senate's partisan balance. • On the balance, there is little evidence of any larger national significance to the Virginia gubernatorial election. Virginia Realities • The out-of-power party in the White House has won every governor's race since 1973. • The result is not a pick up for Democrats; it is a status quo election. • Incumbent Democrat Governor Mark Warner's approval ratings are at 80% (according to The Washington Post), an enormous advantage for Kaine. o The right track/wrong track number for Virginia is 70/25. New Jersey Realities • Only one Republican candidate for governor or senate has garnered over 50% since 1972. (Tom Kean in '85) • Democrats have a 300,000-voter registration advantage. New York City Realities • Mayor Bloomberg's won re-election in a city where there are 5 Democrats for every 1 Republican. • As New York's Republican Mayor, Bloomberg will continue a trend of GOP leadership in the city for the 13th consecutive year.
Posted at 06:00 PM
Comments
That's it?! That's all you have to say?!
Yikes, you guys really are going to get your asses kicked in 06 with a response like that.
Independent voter | 11.09.05 06:46 PM
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I feel cheated - no talking points for the GOP defeats in California and Washington?
Robert | 11.09.05 06:49 PM
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what about CA?
Arnold got bashed!
Repubs ideas thrown out the door.
Face it America is sick of the greedy selfish self-rightous repubs. you're going down.
jamie quin | 11.09.05 06:52 PM
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Oh god this is great, you guys are screwed. By this time next year, people will be doubly pissed at the republicans. Better kiss your republican majority goodbye, bitches.
m4bwav | 11.09.05 08:29 PM
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That's right. Just keep thinkning inside the box like that and you'll be shocked out of your shoes - as your party is voted out of job. 364 days and counting.
hangman | 11.09.05 09:08 PM
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you know..it's funny to see this calm composer from the GOP...this laisse-fare attitude of "oh they didn't really win"....cause you know next year its gonna be "if the dems win, we're f**ked!"
but the whole VA gov/encum. pres/legislative changes is just ridiculous...things are different after 911 and the Afghan & Iraq Wars. And Gop'ers gotta agree...this admin is running wild, and people are gonna want a change...go ahead and say "status qou, status qou" cause accordin to the polls...not many of us like the status qou...
pj | 11.09.05 09:10 PM
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The governorships were a push, except that Virginia made Mark Warner look good. But the ballot initiatives in California *and* Colorado were huge. In CA, it portends the demise of Arnold. And in CO, it portends the demise of Grover Norquist.
CSears | 11.09.05 11:23 PM
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New York City Realities
• Mayor Bloomberg's won re-election in a city where there are 5 Democrats for every 1 Republican.
• As New York's Republican Mayor, Bloomberg will continue a trend of GOP leadership in the city for the 13th consecutive year.
bloombergs also pro-choice.
big difference from the normal 'trend of gop leadership'
tj | 11.10.05 03:01 AM
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Am I missing something? I can't find for the life of me the other two governor's races that make it a "wash"
I'm not a moron but I can't find anyone saying anything about them
TheMightySlouch | 11.10.05 10:35 AM
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Well, MightySlouch,
It's not that Dems got 2 new Gov seats and then the GOP won two new Gov seats to cancel each other out and restore the status quo.
It's that the two Gov seats that Dems won (VA and NJ) were already in Dem hands. They were just retained, making what Republicans might claim is a "wash."
Bob | 11.10.05 12:58 PM
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Regarding the chart on VA governors and presidents...
Prior to 1973, the VA Ds ideologically equated to moderns Rs and vice versa. Prior to 1969, the poll tax kept turnout artificially low and guaranteed Ds held statewide offices. The gov-vs-pres comparison is meaningless before 1973.
allbetsareoff | 11.10.05 11:59 PM
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So kinda like a winless football team saying "we walked in with no wins, and came out with no wins. So really nothing changed."
Now I get it.
TheMightySlouch | 11.11.05 06:01 PM
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lostyand | 02.16.08 01:37 AM
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lostyand | 02.16.08 01:37 AM
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lostyand | 02.16.08 01:45 AM
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lostyand | 02.16.08 01:46 AM
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lostyand | 02.16.08 01:47 AM
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