November 29, 2005

GOP Retirements An Omen?

We also wondered this:

"Are Republican retirements are a reliable leading indicator on forecasting a change in control of the House of Representatives?"

Taegan Goddard of Political Wire asked Charlie Cook.

From Cook's answer: "In and of themselves, the number of retirements that a party has is not a particularly good leading indicator of seat changes. But, a large number of retirements from incumbents in vulnerable seats can result in a large number of seat changes. With over 95 percent of incumbents in a typical year getting re-elected (though for a party in a bad year it can drop as low as 80 percent), open seats in vulnerable districts increases the volatility in the House and the exposure to losses."

Posted at 10:37 AM

Comments

I think we'll see many more GOP retirements (and convictions) in the near future. Things looks good for the Dems.

Fingerhut | 11.29.05 12:13 PM

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