November 09, 2005
Ken Strasma's Map
Democratic targeting consultant Ken Strasma's analysis of last night's VA Gov results has much to recommend.
Here's a nifty map of the results:
More of Strasma's analysis follows the break.
Kaine was able to expand the traditional Democratic base in the Northern Virginia suburbs of Arlington, Alexandria and Fairfax into the more exurban Loudoun and Prince William Counties.
There are 10 television markets in Virginia, but only four that account for 10% or more of the state vote. The largest of these is the Washington D.C. media market in Northern Virginia, which accounted for 33% of the votes cast in 2005, followed by Norfolk, which accounted for 21%, Roanoke, which accounted for 20%, and Richmond, which accounted for 16%. Kaine got a higher percent of the vote than Warner in the Washington D.C. and Norfolk markets, and a lower percentage than Warner in the Roanoke and Richmond markets.
Overall, Kaine exceeded Warner's 2001 percent in 34 of Virginia's 135 counties and independent cities, and got a lower percent in 101. Kaine's strength, however, was concentrated in the largest and fastest growing counties. Kaine improved on Warner's 2001 percent in nine of the 10 largest counties, and in seven of the ten fastest growing counties.
Posted at 12:46 PM
Comments
A quick question. It looks from the map like Kilgore did relatively poorly in the Tidewater areas, traditionally a Republican stronghold.
Is it reasonable to conclude that the public's disaffection with the Iraq war was instrumental in this erosion of support for the GOP candidate in that region? Any factual data on this?
Thanks.
Sammy J | 11.09.05 04:13 PM
 |
Heh. And that big blue blot right in the middle there is Albemarle County and Charlottesville, home of the University of Virginia. Of course, it went solidly for Kaine. Way to go, Charlottesvilleans!!!! The spirit of Jefferson lives!
UVA Alum | 11.09.05 04:27 PM
|
Thanks for posting the FOUR color map. I can't stand the two color "red/blue" maps - they just perpetuate the "red/blue" meme pushed by partisans on both sides. The country - heck most families - are mostly purple.
Robert | 11.09.05 04:30 PM
|
To the untrained eye, it would look like the Reds wholloped the Blues.
Isn't it interesting how geographical maps can be such poor representations of electoral reality?
Madness | 11.09.05 04:52 PM
|
Exactly, Madness, which is why the corporate media and the Republicans are so eager to use those maps. Sorry, but empty fields and barren mountainsides don't get votes in this country.
libdevil | 11.09.05 05:01 PM
|
"Thanks for posting the FOUR color map. I can't stand the two color "red/blue" maps" - Robert
How about more than just 4-colors then, automatically generated with the ability to display by Vote Margin Percentage, Vote Margin, Winner Percentage and a plain greyscale Total Votes display.
You can view that here: http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=3912
There's also ones for previous VA Governor's elections.
RParker | 11.09.05 05:03 PM
|
Madness... time to whip out the demographically rescaled mapping software like we saw a lot after 2004.
dbt | 11.09.05 05:05 PM
|
maps...
thought on a formula for maps that uses two axis...
Color: (red to blue) is determined by the vote percentage.
Value: (light to dark) is determined by the relative number of votes for the locality... such that a very democrat but lightly populated area is a light blue and a very republican and heavily populated area is bright red. thoughts?
Dave Solimini | 11.09.05 05:24 PM
|
I'm curious about the military towns, like Norfolk. Do you have data on how they voted vs. last time?
agoldnyc | 11.09.05 07:31 PM
|
The maps we want look like this:
http://www.princeton.edu/~rvdb/JAVA/election2004/
Color indicates the dem/repub breakdown, height represents the # voters per unit area.
dondo | 11.09.05 10:14 PM
|
Thanks to the folks who pointed out that the VA election results by county map makes it look like the Republicans did better than they actually did because of their strength in sparsely populated rural counties.
We now have a cartographic map that shows VA with the size of each county adjusted to reflect the total votes cast.
http://www.strategictelemetry.com/maps.htm
Ken Strasma | 11.11.05 01:20 PM
|
Post a comment
The Watergate · 600 New Hampshire Ave., NW
Washington, DC 20037
202-739-8400 · fax 202-833-8069
NationalJournal.com is an Atlantic Media publication.
