December 31, 2005

The Wacky Trial Balloon Of The Break

It seems a Xmas break never goes by without some bizarre campaign trial balloon. This year's comes out of, where else, NY: The Donald for NY GOV.

Apparently, if he runs, he'll do so as a Republican. Folks will recall that Trump toyed with a presidential bid in 2000 as a Reform Party candidate. With "The Apprentice" starting to wane just a bit, politics just might be the perfect "next act" for America's number one ego maniac. Eliot Spitzer should be so lucky.

Posted 12.31.05 03:49 PM | Comments

December 23, 2005

Blogometer Special: The Year In Political Blogging

If 2004 was the year that blogs broke into the mainstream, 2005 saw an acceleration of this trend -- even without a presidential election to focus on. Unlike 12 months ago, the word "blog" itself is almost a household name. Those annoying wire stories that reiterate the fact that "blog is short for web-log" are definitely on the way out. As a tool, blogs are merely the best-known aspect of "Web 2.0," a buzzword commonly used to describe post-dot com bubble innovations that are rejuvenating the Internet, both as a "wild west" of communications. Count RSS, folksonomic tags, wikis, podcasting, companies such as Google and concepts such as the Long Tail as part of the trend. Blogs are closely related to them all. If the above sounds unfamiliar, well, let's see in another 12 months. As a community, blog participation appears to be growing at an exponential pace. Professional ventures continue to join the trailblazing amateurs, and some of those amateurs -- the elite bloggers you are most likely to see quoted in the Blogometer -- are seeing their influence grow along with it. Take media professionals, who have a tortured relationship with the blogosphere: Many check in with a few favorite blogs regularly, others know what's being said but keep them at arms length, and not a few write for blogs. In the blogosphere, they can say for free what their employers would never consider paying them to write. (Count the number of MSM writers who are gainfully employed but also contribute to Huffington Post.)
      Politicians are jumping into the blogosphere as well, although their reasons are quite different. To elected officials and candidates, blogs can help raise money. Blogs also can serve as an end-run around the establishment media, calling attention to issues and pressuring the MSM to follow up. But the embrace is even less easy than between bloggers and the media; politicians cannot count on even sympathetic bloggers to jump on command, and positive buzz can turn negative on very short notice.
      Since our debut in late 3/05, the Blogometer has followed these events day in and day out. In this special edition, we'll try to summarize the major events, big debates, and overlooked stories that characterized the political blogosphere in 2005.



EARLY '06: A Close Schiavo
      The fight over Terri Schiavo reached its height just as we launched; our 2nd edition covered her death and the extremely emotional responses. The right split hard -- more than over any other issue this year -- between pro-life advocates who saw removal of her feeding tube to be euthanasia, and those who thought the law was not on the pro-tube side. We quoted the now-defunct Hundred Percenter who de-linked 8 high-profile anti-tube conservatives, including Instapundit and Little Green Footballs. INDC Journal's Bill Ardolino, one of the delinkees, responded: "The subtext of that post: 'Hillary '08!'"
      Beyond Schiavo, the other early event that set the stage for Pres. Bush's long, slow decline in the polls was his abortive attempt to overhaul Social Security. In the end, there was too much reticence about dramatically altering the program and not enough support outside of business and conservative activists. Caution carried the day. As Matt Yglesias wrote at the time: "It's important to recall that we don't actually have the ability to make binding decisions about what Social Security will look like in the distant future. The program has only just recently reached the end of its very first 75 years and it's already been drastically changed several times."
      Just a few months after the story known to some as Memogate and others as Rathergate, conservative bloggers seized on another apparent memo fiasco: The Washington Post reported that a GOP memo had declared the Schiavo case to be a "great political issue." Michelle Malkin and Mickey Kaus were among those who suspected another hoax or at least overzealous reporting by the Post's (now Time's) Mike Allen. Crosstown rival Washington Times gave this interpretation with a front-page, above-the-fold splash: "Was the Schiavo memo a fake?" Eventually it turned out the memo was not a fake; it had come from a mid-level staffer in Sen. Mel Martinez's (R-FL) office. Most who pushed this theory acknowledged the truth, lefty bloggers had a good laugh, and by this point is almost entirely forgotten. It is worth remembering as a reminder that blogs often push erroneous stories, and that once exposed, the misconceptions are more often than not quietly dropped.



DELAY: The Sugar Land Express
      As the list of TRMPAC and Abramoff-related accusations against then-House Maj. Leader Tom DeLay piled up early in the year, some on the left feared that he might be gone too quickly to be an effective bogeyman during the '06 midterms. In early 4/05, Sam Rosenfeld of TAPPED cautioned: "What did our president call it when Saddam fell too quickly? A catastrophic success. Think about it. Hands off DeLay!" And by late 4/05, conservative bloggers at RedState and UCLA law prof Stephen Bainbridge were calling on DeLay to resign. == If anything, the coverage of DeLay's eventual step down has been characterized by one lull after another. The one exception was the day his eventual indictment by controversial DA Ronnie Earle.



IRAQ/TERRORISM/TORTURE: Sour Ghraibs
      In mid-May, Newsweek published a few allegations of poor treatment at Gitmo by detainees there. Most memorable, and most questioned, was the report that a Koran had been flushed down a toilet. To the left, Newsweek was just the latest MSM to cave to admin. criticism, but to conservatives it was a betrayal. Austin Bay suggested that "history may see Newsweek's fatal 'Koran flushing' story as the US press' Abu Ghraib."
      A few weeks after the Gitmo event, Amnesty Int'l suggested that Gitmo was a "gulag." Not long after, Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL) invoked Nazi atrocities when describing U.S. detainment practices. An uproar ensued, with conservatives interpreting his remarks as a direct comparison between the Bush admin and the Third Reich; liberals deemed that a misinterpretation. But Durbin apologized anyway, thus losing the strong support he had enjoyed from the lefty blogs.
      Versions of this debate played out several times throughout the year, such as when the Washington Post reported on the existence of CIA prisons in Europe, over the existence of Able Danger, and now once again re: Bush's authorization of domestic wiretaps without specific court orders. The left considers it valuable reporting on a WH that's liable to do anything. With the sometime exception of torture, the right is angry not at Bush but the media. Many have called for prosecution of the leaks that resulted in these stories.



JUDGES: Filiblustering
      The next signature fight of the early summer was over Bush's circuit court judges and the extant Dem filibuster that had kept them from a vote on the Senate floor. Senate Maj. Leader Bill Frist, then a more likely WH '08 candidate than now, indicated his willingness to change Senate rules -- the "nuclear" (or "constitutional") option, and opinion tended to break neatly along party lines. But in the blogosphere, several liberal bloggers decided they'd be better off if Frist succeeded in getting rid of the filibuster.
      Labor blogger Nathan Newman argued that "filibusters are inherently more of an obstacle to progressive government than a block to conservative politics." And while liberal and conservative bloggers endlessly debated whether the GOP's opposition to ex-Pres. Clinton's nominees was equivalent, the issue never came to a head: on 5/23, 7 GOPers and 7 Dems agreed on a compromise. Neither side was particularly encouraged. The Anchoress, from the right: "It's gonna be a long cold day before the [GOP] sees a dime of my money. A long. Cold. Day. Can someone please explain to me why, with 57% support from the nation ... the GOP caved on this?" Jesse Taylor, from the left: "Democrats win, basically. But they win in a way that is neither sure nor particularly productive in the long term." But it didn't take more than a few months for the CW to change, thus vindicating self-described "RINOs" like Mark Coffey, who had created a sidebar button for GOP-leaning bloggers who approved of the deal: "The Coalition of the Chillin." For a time, it allowed centrists such as Jeff Jarvis to wonder if the moderates could find a way to rule on other issues. But eventually it gave way to bigger fights over the SCOTUS vacancies that were coming soon.



SCOTUS: A Supreme Snoozer, A Serious QuagMiers, And Alito's Way
      The filibuster compromise came at an opportune time for GOPers, as long-expected SCOTUS vacancies were indeed imminent. Over the months, many many rumors moved from conservative legal circles to RedState. Most, but not all, were wrong. The majority came from GA political consultant Erick Erickson, but one of the 1st (and one of the 1st wrong ones) came from Southern Appeal's Steve Dillard at RedState's Confirm Them: "Rehnquist will step down in the next four weeks: I don't think this news will come as a surprise to anyone, but I just received a phone call from an extremely reliable source who tells me that it's a done deal."
      When Sandra Day O'Connor stepped down instead, up went the nomination of judge John Roberts, who proved to be relatively uncontroversial, even when switched to the CJ seat. Only when Rehnquist passed away, and Bush named WH counsel Harriet Miers to the bench did the 'sphere go wild. But the outrage came from the left, not the right, in a near reprisal of the angst over the filibuster compromise. This time ex-BC'04 webmaster (and soon to be RNC eCampaign dir.) Patrick Ruffini adopted the "Coalition of the Chillin'" logo for his pro-Miers group. Nevertheless, her withdrawal was a relief to conservatives. The left was more or less left scratching its head -- had they opposed her too little? Too much? And what came next? Next up for SCOTUS: Judge Samuel Alito, whose favor by conservatives and disfavor by liberals has restored the natural order of confirmation battles.



HACKETT: OH My
      The summer doldrums brought 2 unexpected stories to the fore. One was the surprisingly strong candidacy of OH House special election candidate/Iraq vet Paul Hackett, who came within a few points of defeating now-Rep. Jean Schmidt in a heavily GOP district. Working in his favor was the OH GOP-implicating Coingate scandal, and the enthusiastic support of some influential liberal blogs, due in large part to Hackett's blunt criticism of Bush. Our 8/3 edition best summarized the frantic, heady week of fundraising and campaigning that led up to the 8/2 vote. Hackett became even more of a left-blogosphere hero after the election.
      Later, Hackett's entry to the OH SEN race against fellow lefty blog favorite Rep. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) would cause a minor controversy that resulted in the retirement of "liberal blogfather" Jerome Armstrong. We covered it 1st on 10/26, and followed up again with some original reporting on 11/1



SHEEHAN: Mother, Should I Trust The Government?
      The 2nd big story was anti-war gold star mother Cindy Sheehan, who brought the anti-war movement as close as it's come to breaking out as a popular movement since the Iraq invasion. As we wrote on 8/16, "It may turn out that 2005 will be the Summer of Sheehan -- no matter which side of the increasingly emotional divide one finds themselves, the fact remains that it is an incredibly compelling and unnerving debate." Her encampment outside Bush's Crawford home during the dog days of summer -- in close proximity to a news-starved WH press corps -- and promotion by ex-Dean manager Joe Trippi helped get the media to pay attention, eventually turning her into a household name. Of course, much bigger news was in the offing. While she appeared in Time's year-end issue and still gets occasional publicity from the MSM, liberal bloggers almost never mention her, and conservatives only bring her up for the purposes of mocking the movement she represents.



KATRINA: The Battle Of New Orleans
      We wrote on 8/29: "The only story that matters this a.m. is Hurricane Katrina. Where many had assumed the city could have been utterly destroyed, it seems clear at this point that it has been spared the worst: There will probably still be a New Orleans tomorrow."Within days, however, it was clear that N.O. (as many of us soon learned to abbreviate it) was not spared. And with Bush's slow response, embodied in an ill-advised guitar-holding photo op in San Diego and his ill-considered praise for now-ex-FEMA dir. Michael Brown, conservatives stopped holding back their criticism. While Bush hadn't had an easy time of it from the blogs previously, Katrina damaged him severely.



PLAMEGATE: The Spy Who Came In From The Cold And The Adviser Who Came In For Some Heat
      What's there to say about Plamegate that hasn't already been analyzed from three or more angles? Between 6/20 and 12/16, now-ex-CIA "operative" Valerie Plame was mentioned in 88 of 118 Blogometer editions, frequently as the top story. The case was probably the closest-watched story of the year. At the outset, liberal bloggers almost to a person believed the WH had deliberately made her name public to "punish" her husband, ex-Amb. Joe Wilson, for contradicting their assertions about pre-war WMD intel. Months later, this line of speculation has largely disappeared, and if anything most of the controversy now focuses on the New York Times apparently inept handling of the case. Times reporter Judy Miller, long disliked by the left, eventually came to loom larger than Novak or Wilson or Karl Rove. Eventually it even came to somewhat tarnish Bob Woodward, who knew about Plame, apparently from the same source as Novak.
      Although the case had been discussed at some length during '03, when Bob Novak published her name in a column, and the inquiry launched, the whole thing went big-time on 7/2 with the Huffington Post-hosted revelation by MSNBC's Lawrence O'Donnell that Rove had told/"leaked" Plame's name to Time's Matt Cooper. When the post first went up, the title was "Rove Blew CIA Agent's Cover"; later this was revised to the more cautious "It's Rove..." Despite skeptics like Kaus, O'Donnell had it largely right.
      By mid-July, speculation ran so rampant we tried to keep track of it all. Among the theories we counted, all of which were wrong or are yet unknown five months later: "WH dep. CoS Karl Rove could face espionage charges rather than mere indictment under intelligence protection statues; Ex-Amb. Joe Wilson may have leaked wife Valerie Plame's role in his Niger trip to friends in the Washington press; New York Times' Judy Miller may have leaked the Wilson/Plame gossip to the WH; Or, Miller and the Times may be protecting another source, one unsympathetic to the WH; Ex-WH spokesperson Ari Fleischer may have leaked Plame's name."
      Then came the near-jailing of Cooper, the actual-jailing of Miller, the 9/30 confirmation that Cheney CoS Scooter Libby was Miller's source, and then the 10/28 indictment of Libby. In the weeks leading up to this, the left-blogosphere had designated indictment day "Fitzmas," after special prosecutor Patrick Fitzgerald. It was a subdued one, as Rove escaped indictment. But as we head into '06, that possibility still hangs over Rove, and the WH.



BLOGGER OUTREACH: Gettin' To Know You
      Dems have had the advantage of a "netroots" well developed during the invisible primaries of WH'04, and early in the year, DNC chair Howard Dean and Senate Min. Leader Harry Reidheld conf. calls with sympathetic bloggers. In early June, ex-VP nominee John Edwards "had a bunch of the political bloggers over for dinner at his D.C. house, I'm told, to meet with him, his Internet team, and his wife." But they haven't done much lately.
      The GOP, meanwhile, largely ignored even the right-blogosphere until the fall of this year. Following the Miers disaster, the RNC and cong. GOPers wised up, and improved their outreach. On 10/20, the Blogometer attended a 10/20 "blog row" event for conservative bloggers to meet with GOP House members on Capitol Hill. We wrote then: "Events such as these highlight the blurring lines of journalism. It was aimed at amateur bloggers, but they weren't the only ones invited. ... Add to that, the caucus also filmed and photographed the event for its own purposes. While the interest in forging ties with amateur bloggers seemed genuine, it was also a rolling photo-op -- for the benefit of not just the MSM, but the blogosphere as well."



MISCONCEPTIONS: Drop It Like It's Hot
      The Downing Street Memo is an issue frequently described as the subject of blogger buzz. Indeed, there are and were blogs started about it. But it never became a cause celebre of the biggest bloggers, and that was the source of some consternation on lower-traffic lefty blogs. Yet the story still got out, suggesting that the biggest blogs don't have to promote an issue for it to take hold. Not that it went anywhere -- for many it was old news, or they decided the memo didn't necessarily say what the memo's proponents argued it did. A contributor to The Next Hurrah lamented an "impeachment fatigue" that rendered all impeachment talk "tin foil hat-ish."
      Somewhat different but along the same lines was Ed Klein's anti-Hillary book. Did right-wing bloggers eat it up? No, actually they tore it apart. It suffered in part because it included (and Matt Drudge heavily promoted) a particularly vicious false rumor about the Clintons' marriage. While a hot potato, nobody really believed it, and Ed Morrissey had a representative take: "I'm no fan of the Clintons, but the Right has had its problem reining in its vitriol regarding Bill and Hillary since 1992."



REGULATION: The Rules Of The Game
      Bloggers of the left and right tend to be more libertarian than their offline counterparts, and early on RedState co-founder Mike Krempasky and Daily Kos founder Markos Moulitsas joined forces to support cong. legislation protecting bloggers from new campaign finance rules, and later to argue before the FEC that online political activity should not be subject to new FEC rules. We were there on 6/29 when Duncan "Atrios" Black and others appeared before the FEC to argue their case. And in an important but overlooked ruling in late Nov., MO Dem consultant Roy Temple got approval from the FEC for his blogs to be treated just like any other media org, with a "press exception" from campaign finance laws.



BY THE NUMBERS: Down For The Count
      As journalists, we tend not to be numbers people. But we still like counting. Here's a few fun facts about this year's Blogometer, from 3/30 to 12/16:
     

• Number of editions prior to this one: 175
• Number of words, total: 615,313
• Average Blogometer length: 3,516
• Longest edition: 9/6's "The Battle of New Orleans," at 6,866 words
• Shortest edition: 12/14's "Briefing Papers," at 2,213
• What's longer, the '05 Blogometer or "Infinite Jest": The Blogometer, barely
• Most-cited blog: Daily Kos by a country mile, at 456 links
• Next 9 most-cited blogs: RedState (301), The Corner (212), Power Line (212), Captain's Quarters (211), Michelle Malkin (211), MyDD (208), Eschaton (200), Instapundit (197), HuffPo (176)
• Least-cited blog: Most of them, i.e. all the ones we never linked to.

POSTSCRIPT: Back To The Future
      So what happens next year? One thing we're sure of is that blogs will become a major force in the midterm elections. Quite a few have already organized, but many more are coming. In particular, watch for them to take over not just the dissemination of oppo, but also the collection of it. And thanks to the FEC's ruling that even highly partisan blogs are covered by the press exception, watch for more non-profits and ideologically aligned think tanks to get into the blogging business.
      Meanwhile, the fact that blogs are becoming more important to communications and logistics outside of politics will only reinforce their importance, even as we cease to realize how pervasive they are. Indeed, watch over the coming year(s) as website re-designs incorporate the tools of blogging. Where the community goes is another question altogether. To follow the bloggers is to follow an often fascinating group of writers and their contentious debates. They're not as easy to romanticize as Hemingway's fellow expats in post-war France, or Dorothy Parker's table of fellow wits -- at least not yet. Nevertheless, there is a very real sense of a community -- even there are two distinct halves who have little use for the other. But as new bloggers and new organizations set up shop in the politically-minded corner of the blogosphere, these circles will change. We won't presume to know how. But in 12 months time, the place may look a lot different once again.
 (Back to Contents)

Posted 12.23.05 04:50 PM | Comments

Not as bad as the long pause...

but still.

Coverage of Jeanine Pirro's latest campaign-opening gaffe in the New York Post and the Albany Times-Union.

Posted 12.23.05 12:51 PM | Comments

Scandals Beget Scrutiny

A Hotline writer vacationing in beautiful San Diego passes along a package of articles from the Union Tribune.

GOP Rep. Jerry Lewis's ties to a former staffer-cum-lobbyist are probed. Nothing especially hinky... but close sifting of a cozy, quite common relationship. And a weird picture of Lewis and his dog.

The writer, Copley's Jerry Krammer, makes the point that coverage of one scandal often pushes the press take a closer look at everything in their orbit. Lewis's perch on the approps committee makes him an easy target for scrutiny.

BTW: Regional AP political writers used to scrub the financial disclosure forms of all 535 members of Congress at least once every two years -- their assets, liaibilities, loans, equity holdings, properties, charities, chief contributors, campaign accounts, etc.
Do they still do this? Let us know.

Posted 12.23.05 12:29 PM | Comments

Newt's Priorities

Health care? Immigration? Alito? Budget? Family cohesion? National defense? AIDS in Africa?

"Newt's latest paper: QUANTUM MECHANICS: FROM SCIENCE PROBLEM TO ENGINEERING SOLUTION"

Posted 12.23.05 12:21 PM | Comments

WH Touts Budget Successes

Below, two documents the WH is sending to reporters and surrogates today, touting budget successes. If you're cynical, just realize that you'll get to read these words before Fred Barnes says them!

Download file

Download file

Posted 12.23.05 11:06 AM | Comments

Is Frist The BIggest '08 Loser Of '05?

It seems we've seen a story about Bill Frist like this one from Bloomberg every time the Senate went into recess in 2005. Is it any wonder there are a growing number of smart folks in DC predicting Frist will eventually NOT pull the trigger on '08? We're not sure what he can do in '06 to fix his bad '05, but he needs to figure out something to shake this current image.

Frist is trying to put the best spin he can on his '05 in an email to VOLPAC supporters. Complete email text after the jump:

Thomas Jefferson once said: “In matters of style, swim with the current; in matters of principle, stand like a rock.” We – Republicans – have stood on principle in the 109th Congress. And the results are plain to see … We’ve secured America’s ECONOMIC STRENGTH by passing: Deficit Reduction Bill – Because, like everyone else in America, Washington needs to tighten its belt and learn how to do more with less. Tax Cut Extension – Because now is NOT the time to raise taxes on hard working Americans. Comprehensive National Energy Policy – Because we MUST begin to reduce our dangerous dependence on foreign sources of oil.

SMART Grants – Because we need to better prepare our children to compete in the global economy of tomorrow.

Highway Funding Bill – Because we need to fix our broken infrastructure system and rebuild our highways and ports.

Central America Free Trade Agreement – Because we need to eliminate barriers and open the doors to 44 million new consumers of American goods.

We’ve secured America’s Homeland and Commitment to the Military by passing:

Patriot Act Extension – Because America’s safety comes FIRST, and we need to give law enforcement the tools they need to track suspected terrorists and break up terrorist cells.

Hurricane Katrina Disaster Relief – Because we need to rebuild the Gulf Coast and help our fellow Americans return to their homes.

Defense Authorization– Because we need to ensure that our armed services have the resources and authorities they need to protect America.

Prohibition on Torture – Because we will do what is necessary to learn what we need to know to protect America, but we will not mistreat the people we have in captivity.

Emergency War on Terror Supplemental Appropriations Bill – Because America will not relent in the fight to spread freedom in regions of the world long plagued by tyranny and fear.

We’ve secured America’s sound government by:

Confirming Chief Justice John Roberts – Because he’s a man of principle and integrity who understands the importance of judicial restraint and judicial independence.

Confirming Seven Obstructed Judicial Nominees – Because the President’s nominees deserve the courtesy and the respect of a fair, up or down vote.

Passing Twelve Appropriations Bills – Because Government should work for the people and respect the taxpayer’s hard earned dollar … finding efficient, effective solutions that maximize freedom and opportunity for all Americans.

We’ve secured America’s Responsibility Culture by passing:

Class Action Reform – Because frivolous class action lawsuits were bankrupting small businesses, punishing consumers and increasing the cost of doing business in America.

Bankruptcy Reform – Because too many Americans came to look at bankruptcy as a first stop, not the last resort that it was intended to be.

Gun Liability Bill – Because greedy trial lawyers were unjustly targeting the gun industry with frivolous lawsuits – almost ALWAYS found to be without merit and dismissed – costing U.S. firearm manufacturers $200 million in legal fees, and putting the jobs of hard working Americans at risk.

We’ve secured America’s Health by passing:
Health Care Information Technology – Because we must commit to developing a 21st Century system for the delivery of health care information that is ACCURATE, INTEROPERABLE and easily ACCESSIBLE.

Avian Flu Legislation – Because an avian flu pandemic is no longer a question of if, but when. And while we don’t need to panic, we DO need to be prepared.

Cord Blood Legislation – Because cord blood technology is a proven means for producing cures and has the potential to improve the lives of millions who suffer from a variety of diseases, including sickle-cell anemia, Krabbe's disease, and other lethal illnesses.

The list goes on.

We passed legislation to help protect the Boy Scouts from baseless ACLU attacks; we passed legislation that will help combat America’s #1 drug problem – Crystal Meth; and, on the border front, we’ve taken dramatic steps to protect our nation from those who seek to illegally enter it.

Leading on principle … we are facing our challenges; we are taking action; we are governing with meaningful solutions for the American people.

In the days ahead, we will remain vigilant in the War on Terror; we will work to protect our borders; and we WILL confirm Judge Alito to the Supreme Court.

My friends, with your steadfast support, we are making a difference. We are securing an America that is safer, stronger, healthier, more prosperous and FREER than ever.

And for all that you have done to help us along the way, I thank you.

Bill Frist, M.D.

Posted 12.23.05 09:00 AM | Comments

December 22, 2005

Diebold's Crack Up (?)

On Call Assignment Desk time.

Within the past few weeks:

1. The election supervisor for the county encompassing Tallahassee, FL saw voting results hacked before his eyes. He decertified Diebold. Jeb Bush noticed and wants a full review of Florida's voting machines.

2. Diebold chief Wally O'Dell -- he of "deliver the election" to Bush fame -- resigns.

3. CA refuses to certify Deibold yet, reversing a reversal.

4. St. Louis Co., MO decertifies Diebold machines.

5. North Carolina is apparently about to do the same.

Assigned to: Tom Edsall, Scott Shane, Sharon Theimer, Mark Memmott, Bloomberg News

Posted 12.22.05 08:01 PM | Comments

Pence In '16

It begins today.

Rep. Mike Pence (R) was named Human Events' Man of the Year.

Posted 12.22.05 07:55 PM | Comments

Dem Mark Green "Welcomes" Pirro To The AG Race

NY AG candidate Mark Green today "welcomed" Jeanine Pirro (R) to the race by telling her she's violating FEC regs. His letter to Pirro is after the jump.

[CORRECTED: A previous version of this post said "New York State Campaign Finance Laws."]

Dear Jeanine:

Welcome to the Attorney General race. Since we will be running to be the chief law enforcement officer of the state, I wanted to let you know that you are currently violating federal election regulations by continuing to solicit and accept funds for your abandoned 2006 Senate campaign. As of 2:00 pm today, you are continuing to solicit and accept funds for "PIRRO 2006 for U.S. Senate" on your web site, http://www.jeaninepirro.com/.

According to the Federal Election Commission, Federal regulations prohibit a candidate who has withdrawn from a race from soliciting or accepting funds for that race (except for debt reduction). FEC staff has advised us that this conduct runs afoul of regulations that can be found, among other places, in 11 CFR 110.1(B), 11 CFR 110.16, and several advisory opinions, including 1986-12.

Should we end up as the respective nominees of our parties, I look forward to debating you on the serious issues that New Yorkers want their Attorney General to address over the next four years and beyond.

Sincerely,

Mark Green

Posted 12.22.05 07:52 PM | Comments

Hagel Backlash

This letter was published in the Omaha World Herald today.

---------

Now that U.S. Sen. Chuck Hagel has joined the liberal Democrats (our own Democratic Sen. Ben Nelson is not one) and voted to filibuster the Patriot Act, it is time for him to go.

Since President Bush has been in office, Sen. Hagel has done everything in his power to hurt the president's initiatives so Hagel can be called a "maverick." Now he is so arrogant that he doesn't even care if he is hurting us.

It is obvious even to the casual observer that Sen. Hagel is cut out of the same political cloth as Bill Clinton, who moistened a finger and stuck it in the air to decide what to say on any particular day. Nebraska deserves better.

Chuck Hagel is an embarrassment. I'll bet he can find a job back on the East Coast somewhere. I'm sure he and his politics would fit in much better there.
John Larsen, Elkhorn, Neb.

Posted 12.22.05 03:11 PM | Comments

What Did Stevens Mean?

I had the pleasure of appearing this afternoon on ABC News Now's Politics Live with ex-colleagues Geoff Morrell and Jonathan Karl.

And on the program, Karl passed along some ABC News reporting.

Not only does Sen. Stevens' office refuse to parse the sentence, but an ABC News producer who ran into Stevens last night said the Senator said he didn't know if he would be coming back.

So could Stevens actually retire? Who knows?

BTW: The Christmas recess has been known to produces surprise departures. [MARC AMBINDER]

Posted 12.22.05 02:55 PM | Comments

Hotline: The Year In Politics

And you thought this would be a quiet year? Relive the memories, the heartbreak, the joys and the laughs. The Hotline's year-in-review:

• 1/2: Under media and Dem glare, House GOPers put the kibosh on a rule requiring caucus leaders to step down from their posts if indicted. The rule was nicknamed the "DeLay" rule.
• 1/2: Popular Rep.
• Bob Matsui
(D-CA) dies. His wife Doris is later elected to replace him.
• 1/6: Sen. Barbara Boxer challenges the '04 election results as the Electoral College "meets;" it triggers a Senate debate over election administration. Boxer bolsters her lefty creds.
• 1/11: MI Sec/State Candace Miller (R) says no to a MI Sen race.
• 1/18: House Ways and Means Chair Bill Thomas calls the Bush Social Security plan a "dead horse."
• 1/24: Nixon tapes erasure Sec. Rose Mary Woods dies.
< li>2/1: Howard Dean elected DNC chair.
• 3/17: A House panel holds hearing into steroid use by baseball players. Several players refuse to say whether they juiced. Quoth Mark McGuire: "I'm not here to talk about my past."
• 3/3: Legendary Israeli spy Peter Malkin dies.
• 3/9: Dan Rather anchors his last CBS Evening News broadcast.
• 3/23: Terri Schiavo mania; Congress goes into emergency session to force a fed. court to consider an appeal of an FL judge's order; Dems are stunned into silence; Frist suggests Schiavo could recover; Santorum visits the hospital site near Tampa.
• 4/2: Pope John Paul II dies.
• 4/7: At LiveAid concert, Bono urges G8 govts to get serious about world poverty. Time names him Man of the Year in December.
• 4/19: Cardinal John Ratzinger elected Pope Benedict XVI.
• 4/20: DSCC announces it has $9.5M on hand, compared to the NRSC's 2.4M. The DS would continue to outraise the NR the entire year. Overall, the GOP continued to dominate party committee fundraising -- with the Senate committee excepted.
• 4/27: The House GOP reverses the DeLay rule.
• 4/29: A National Journal poll of GOP insiders debuts its first WH '08 poll and finds they think Sen. George Allen (R-VA) will win. A second poll in 12/05 also put Allen on top. Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) was the overwhelming favorite of Dem insiders.
• 4/30: Vanity Fair reveals that Mark Felt was Deep Throat. Bob Woodward writes about it, reluctantly, two days later. It would not be the first story the Washington Post would supposedly have and yet get scooped on. Simply see all things Woodward.
• 5/6: Tony Blair's Labor party wins elections with a slimmed-down coalition; Blair begins third term as PM
• 5/9: Arianna Huffington launches HuffingtonPost website.
• 5/13: The BRAC releases its recs; Sen. John Thune (R-SD) puts his reputation on the line to save AFBs in SD. He's later successful but still decides to oppose Bush UN nominee Bolton out of spite and to send a message. His relationship with the admin. later improves.
• 5/15: Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL) suggests that Gitmo has become a gulag. He semi-apologizes a few days later.
• 5/23: Seven GOPers and seven Dems form the "Gang of 14" and agree to not vote for either a filibuster or the nuke option; filibusters are discouraged except in undefined "extraordinary circumstances." Reid proclaims victory; Frist slumps his shoulders when reacting; conservative law prof/blogger Hugh Hewitt begins a campaign to withhold money from the NRSC.
• 5/26: State Sen. John Ford (D) and three others are arrested on federal bribery charges. Weeks later, Ford's nephew, TN Rep. Harold Ford Jr., announces a bid for Sen. Bill Frist's (R) soon-to-be open Senate seat.
• 5/30: Alabama teenager Natalie Holloway disappears in Aruba. Media maelstrom ensues. Rita Cosby and Greta Van Susteren gets "exclusives." AL Gov. Bob Riley (R) later seeks a boycott of the island.
• 6/1: Sandra Day O'Connor, the first woman SCOTUS justice, announces she'll retire once her successor is confirmed.
• 6/2: San Diego Union-Tribune reports that Rep. Randy "Duke" Cunningham (R-CA) sold his home to a benefactor, who later flipped it for a loss; the benefactor received millions in contracts from Cunningham's campaign. The "Duke Stir," a luxury boat, makes its first appearance on television; Cunningham proclaims innocence.
• 6/3: Judy Woodruff signs off CNN; CNN's Crossfire tapes its last show.
• 6/6: Dino Rossi ends his fight to be WA Gov after a judge upholds Christine Gregoire's '04 election victory.
• 6/7: Rep. Katherine Harris (R-FL) announces bid for Senate.
• 6/14: CA Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger calls for a special election; all three of his signature proposals are later defeated.
• 6/15: IA Gov. Tom Vilsack (D) becomes president of the DLC.
• 6/20: Bush nominates John Roberts to fill O'Connor seat in a prime-time TV event.
• 6/30: After the SCOTUS refuses to overturn a ruling ordering Time to turn over Matt Cooper's notes to the prosecutor, Time complies.
• 6/30: Sen. Evan Bayh's All America PAC reports raising more in the first six months of the year than any other PAC associated with a Dem presidential candidate.
• 7/3: Admission: Rove talked to Cooper about Plame. Which contradicts his earlier testimony.
• 7/7: NYT's Judy Miller jailed for refusing to testify
• 7/1: Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA) releases book "It Takes A Family."
• 7/12: Speaking to the NAACP, RNC Chair Ken Mehlman apologizes for his party's "Southern Strategy" in past cycles. Mehlman is later blasted by Rush Limbaugh for allegedly capitulating to political correctness.
• 7/15: NY Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) files FEC report showing her re-election campaign has $12.8M in the bank.
• 7/21: Dino Rossi (R) says he won't run against Sen. Maria Cantwell (D)
• 7/25: The two largest labor unions, the SEIU and the Teamsters, quit the AFL-CIO. They soon form, with several other unions, a new "Change To Win" coalition.
• 7/28: House passes CAFTA amid a successful summer for GOP-backed legislation; a major highway bill and Bush' energy bill also pass.
• 7/31: Senate Maj. Leader Bill Frist stuns colleagues and endorses the DeGette-Castle stem cell bill. Fellow Sens are angered that his announcement tramples positive coverage of the GOP's legislative accomplishments.
• 8/1: John Bolton given recess appointment to UN
• 8/2: Iraq war vet Paul Hackett (D) narrowly loses to Jean Schmidt in OH-2, a GOP stronghold.
• 8/3: Ex-Sen. David Karnes (R) ignores WH pleas and opts not to challenge Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE).
• 8/4: SCOTUS CJ William Rehnquist dies after a long illness. Bush nominates judge John Roberts to fill his place; O'Connor asked to sit tight for a little longer.
• 8/4: In response to egging from James Carville, Bob Novak says "bulls--t" on CNN's "Inside Politics" and storms off the set, the last time he appeared on CNN. In 12/05, CNN severs all ties with him; On the same day, he announces he's signed with Fox News Channel.
• 8/5: last "IP" broadcast.
• 8/6: Cindy Sheehan, mother of an Iraq war vet killed in action, begins protest outside Bush's Crawford ranch. Bush refuses to meet with her a second time. VA Sen. George Allen (R) says later he would have met with her a second time.
• 8/7: ABC News anchor Peter Jennings dies.
• 8/8: You're in the Situation Room. For the First Time. On CNN.
• 8/11: Jack Abramoff indicted on wire fraud and conspiracy charges in re: SunCruz casinos dealings in FL.
• 8/11: KS Board of Education votes to ax evolution from its science curriculum.
• 8/15: NM Gov. Bill Richardson (D) declares a border emergency and seeks fed. govt help for enforcing immig. rules. Two days later, AZ Gov. Janet Napolitano (D) does the same.
• Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI) calls for a full withdrawal of US troops from Iraq by the end of '06
• 8/29: Katrina makes landfall. LA Gov. Kathleen Blanco (D) deemed unprepared. Her staff worries about her clothing. Aaron Brown wonders if "we've lost a city." Water begins to rise in Orleans Parish. Mostly poor, black residents fill the city convention center and the Superdome.
• 8/30: New Orleans in crisis, as is evident on TV. Bush is in CA.
• 8/31: Bush flies over New Orleans en route to Washington (And WH decides to release a photo of Bush looking out AF1); Condi Rice sees a broadway play in NYC
• 9/1: Bush tells FEMA Dir. Michael Brown (aka "Brownie") that he's doing a "heck of a job"; but he comes under heavy fire for the fed. gov's response; the next day, he holds a Rose Garden news event to say he's not satisfied with the response. Flanking him are admin aides; It's later revealed Bush wanted to federalize the response but claimed LA officials would not let him. Brown resigned 9/3 but remained a FEMA consultant.
• 9/6: DeLay's TRMPAC indicted for using corporate funds illegally for campaign purposes.
• 9/16: Bush procurement chief David Safavian arrested on federal corruption charges.
• 9/28: Travis County DA Ronnie Earle convinces a TX grand jury to indict Tom DeLay; DeLay steps down from leadership post; a bid to replace him by Rep. David Dreier (D-CA) is slammed back by opposition from social conservatives; whip Roy Blunt (R-MO) becomes acting maj. leader
• 9/29: NYT's Judy Miller released from jail; soon, she testifies. She begins an awkward departure dance with the New York Times.
• 9/30: ND Gov. John Hoeven (R) announces he won't challenge Sen. Kent Conrad (D).
• 10/1: Rove calls Dr. James Dobson and hints that Harriet Miers might be nominated by Bush for O'Connor's seat. Rove tells Dobson that Miers is an evangelical Christian.
• 10/2: WH counselor/Cheney aide Steve Schmidt departs for three weeks in Iraq.
• 10/3: WH nominates Miers. A prominent poster on the pro-Bush ConfirmThem.com website tells Bush he can fight this one by himself.
• 10/4: WV Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R) says she won't challenge Sen. Robert Byrd (D-WV).
• Ex-Judge Roy Moore announces primary challenge to AL Gov. Bob Riley (R).
• 10/7: Columnist Charles Krauthammer advises the WH to withdraw the Miers nomination and use Senate document requests as a pretext.
• 10/10: The Senate passes legislation to reform to the nation's class action laws. It's a big GOP legislative victory. Bush signs it shortly thereafter.
• 10/11: RNC chair Ken Mehlman hosts a conf. call with conservative bloggers. It's eight days too late.
• 10/22: Sen. Ted Stevens (R-AK) threatens to resign if his expensive bridge to a small community in AK is cut from an approps bill; the Senate nearly takes him up on his offer. And the bridge is, in fact, later removed from the bill but the money stays.
• 10/23: SEC opens investigation in Frist's blind trust sale of HCA stock before the stock value declined.
• 10/28: Cheney CoS Scooter Libby indicted on five counts related to the Plame affair. He resigns. Rove is spared.
• 10/28: WH withdraws Miers nomination; Hotline editor sees Judge Sam Alito on the DC to NY shuttle flight but doesn't immediately recognize him.
• 10/30: "Presidential candidates" Matt Santos(D) and Arnold Vinick (R) debate live on NBC, complete with the "NBC News" logo in the corner.
• 10/31: Bush nominates Alito for SCOTUS
• 11/1: Senate Min. Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) stuns GOPers by taking the Senate into closed session to protest what he deems as GOP obstruction on a pre-war intel investigation. Frist is apoplectic. The GOP agrees to the Dems' demands in re: the investigation.
• 11/1: Coloradans vote to suspend their TABOR law; the fight split the state's GOP; nationally, even GOP strategists interpreted the vote as a sign that voters are more willing to accept potential tax increases in order to pay for needed services.
• 11/2: The ex-wife of Gov candidate/Sen. Jon Corzine (D-NJ) is quoted as saying her husband let her and her family down; he'll do the same to NJ.
• 11/3: Libby pleads not guilty.
• 11/5: Ex-Sen. Tom Daschle (D-SD) addresses IA Dems at J-J dinner in Des Moines.
• 11/8: Dems retain VA and NJ Gov; Dem Tim Kaine soundly defeats GOPer Jerry Kilgore; Mark Warner boomlet begins; Arnold's inits fail in CA; Mike Bloomberg trounces Freddie Ferrer; Mayor Bob Baines ousted in NH
• 11/13: Ex-Sen. John Edwards (D-NC) writes in a Washington Post op-ed, "I was wrong" about voting to authorize war in Iraq.
• 11/21: Ex-Abramoff/DeLay aide Michael Scanlon indicted; agrees to cooperate; published reports say prosecutors looking at potential bribery charges against six members of Congress and 12 Hill aides.
• 11/22: Portrait of ex-CT Gov. John Rowland is unveiled in Hartford. It's crooked.
• 11/29: Rep. Duke Cunningham (R-CA) pleads guilty; later resigns from House
• 12/1: Worried by rising anti-immigration sentiment in his party, RNC chair Ken Mehlman urges caution and temperance, telling GOP activists that anti-immigrant prejudice is "wrong."
• 12/1: MA Gov. Mitt Romney elected RGA chair
• 12/6: DNC Chair Howard Dean says calls Iraq "unwinnable." ND Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D) tells him to "shut up."
• Minuteman founder Jim Gilchrist takes 25 percent in the CA 48 special election but finishes a distant third. GOP candidate John Campbell wins.
• 12/8: Ex-SC Gov. Carroll Campbell dies.
• 12/9: DNC primary calendar commission formally recommends adding a caucus between IA and NH and adding one between NH and the end of the pre-window
• 12/9: In a little-noticed speech, GA LG candidate Ralph Reed expresses regret for using Abramoff money to fund an anti-gambling campaign that benefited Abramoff clients.
• 12/10: Civil rights icon/'68 Dem pres. candidate Eugene McCarthy dies
• 12/12: Rep. John Dingell (D-MI) celebrates 50 years in the House.
• 12/14: MA Gov. Mitt Romney (R) announces he won't run for re-election. He remains RGA chair.
• 12/15: Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) convinces the WH to accept his language on a ban on cruel and unusual punishment for detainees.
• 12/15: 10M+ Iraqis, including large numbers of Sunnis, vote in parliamentary elections in Iraq.
• 12/16: New York Times reveals that Bush authorized the NSA to monitor international phone calls of domestic terror suspects without FISA approval.
• 12/20: A federal judge finds that the Dover, PA school board illegally tried to teach creationism in the public schools.

 (Back to Contents)

Posted 12.22.05 02:27 PM | Comments

DNC Internal Memo: The Year In Review, '06 In Preview

Dem Hill aides, campaign mgrs and consultants are getting their year-end memo from the Democratic National Committee and its pollster, Cornell Belcher today.

The key point, per the memo: "Americans feel the choices being made by the people running our government have undermined our nation’s values (6.32 on a scale of 0 to 10). This is a very damning point for an Administration and Party that has risen to power largely around ideas of values and moral leadership."

Full text after the jump.

December 21, 2005

TO: Interested Parties

FR: DNC Communications
Brilliant Corners Research & Strategies

RE: BUSH AND THE GOP IN 2005: LOST CREDIBILITY AND THE DEMOCRATIC REVIVAL

The Democratic National Committee Communications team and lead pollster Cornell Belcher of Brilliant Corners Research and Strategies prepared this memo to examine the toll that the Bush White House’s repeated strategic and tactical errors have taken on the President’s credibility.

In November of 2004, a majority of American voters supported Bush because they viewed him as a moral, strong and decisive leader in an increasingly dangerous and hostile world. In a post-2004 election survey done by Brilliant Corners, 32 percent of voters open-endedly said they voted for Bush not based on any of his policy proposals, but because of “his strong and decisive leadership.” Thirty-two (32) percent pointed to his “strong morals” as the reason why they voted for him and 19 percent said it was because of his “job with the War on Terror.” Indeed, his presidency was predicated on the perception that he was a strong moral leader.

What a difference a year makes.

Twelve months later, the very foundation that Bush’s support was built on has been swept away by the deepening storm waters of Iraq, myriad scandals, corruption and Katrina. As this foundation erodes, we find his entire presidency folding like a house of cards. Americans no longer approve of what this administration is doing - from Iraq and the economy to ethics in government. Most importantly, even as President Bush’s job approval ratings have seen a slight holiday uptick this December, his credibility remains low, jeopardizing his ability to regain his footing in 2006.

2005 has seen a string of failures for Bush and the Republican Party. At each turn, Bush’s credibility has suffered and he has become a drag on the Republican Congress. Starting with the failed attempt to gut and overhaul Social Security to the Terri Schiavo case, to the Valerie Plame leak, to the realization that the basis for our involvement in Iraq was based on half-truths and cherry-picked intelligence, Americans have become increasingly untrusting of Bush and the Republican Party their culture of corruption and cronyism.

It is vitally important to remember where President Bush began. Right after 9/11 he could count on 87 percent approval. And at the beginning of 2005, he still had a very robust 58 percent approval. Since then though, the aforementioned problems began taking their toll. At his height in 2005, 56 percent of Americans thought that Bush was honest and trustworthy. Now, at the end of the year, a majority of Americans no longer believe that he is1.

Social Security
In January, right after winning re-election, President Bush embarked upon a campaign to rally public support around his risky scheme to privatize Social Security. Even with the political capital he earned with his Presidential win, by April, “the drive to overhaul Social Security -- the centerpiece of Bush's agenda” appeared “stalled.” [Associated Press, 4/8/05] This was the beginning of Bush’s troubles.

Terri Schiavo
In March, the Bush Administration and the Republicans in Congress tried to politically exploit the case of a Florida woman, Terri Schiavo, by taking extraordinary measures to supersede state law. This intrusiveness and overreaching on the part of Washington Republicans hurt the White House. President Bush’s approval rating at the time had dropped to barely more than 50 percent from 57 percent in early February according to Gallup.

Bush’s Awful August
Once again, President Bush decided to spend most of the month of August on vacation in his ranch in Texas. During that time, many Americans saw him as disengaged in the nation’s affairs. His credibility rating at the end of the month had dropped to 51 percent, down from 54 percent in July and 56 percent at the beginning of the year.

Hurricane Katrina
The President’s lackluster response to the deadly aftermath of Hurricane Katrina and the media firestorm that ensued further eroded President Bush’s credibility. By mid-September, with the White House’s incompetence further revealed, Bush’s credibility number had dropped to 47 percent, the lowest percentage of his Presidency according to Gallup. This period also marked the lowest point of Bush’s support. A Washington Post/ABC poll showed that support for the President was in freefall. At that time, just 39 percent of voters approved of the job that Bush was doing. His credibility numbers also took a giant hit.

Libby and DeLay Indictments, Senate Shut-Down, November Election
Over the months of October and November, President Bush took a number of political hits. From the felony indictments of former top Cheney aide Scooter Libby and former GOP Majority Leader Tom DeLay to the shut-down of the Senate over the GOP’s failure to investigate the Bush Administration’s manipulation of pre-war intelligence and finally the historic Democratic gubernatorial wins in Virginia and New Jersey, President Bush and his party did not fare well in the fall of 2005. The President’s poll numbers bear this out. His approval rating bottomed out at 39 percent in November, and his credibility numbers continue to slide or hold steady at near 50 percent, according to Gallup.

GENERAL THEMES: BUSH’S STRENGTHS ARE NOW LIABILITIES
President Bush has also seen erosion in one of his core strengths: the public has always seen him as an honest and effective leader. He was often described as “a good man” and a “strong leader”. At the beginning of 2005, 61 percent of Americans agreed that he was a strong leader. Now, after a year of missteps and catastrophes, a majority of Americans (53 percent) no longer feel that he is a strong leader.

This decline in confidence of the president is also reflected in how people view the direction of the country. At the beginning of 2005, 44 percent of Americans felt that the country was on the right track, with 51 percent feeling that things were headed in the wrong direction. In December we find that the number of people who feel that the country is headed in the wrong direction has grown to 64 percent, while just a third (33 percent) believe things are headed in the right direction.

In September of this year, in our own polling done by Brilliant Corners, we found that the war in Iraq (24 percent), leadership (20 percent) and the economy (11 percent) were the biggest reasons for voter dissatisfaction. Dissatisfaction with the war was the top reason not only for Democrats but for independent voters as well. They feel that America is less safe these days; incredibly, just 23 percent of Americans have a great deal of confidence that the government would be able to effectively respond to another terrorist attack. A majority of Americans no longer feel the war has made America safer (57 percent) or has been worth the price (60 percent) .

And indeed, Americans are deeply divided about what should be done now in Iraq: 44 percent of swing voters think we should either increase our number of troops (14 percent) or keep the same number of troops (30 percent), while 44 percent of swing voters think we should decrease the number of troops (19 percent) or remove all our troops (25 percent). Even Republicans are seeing anxiety and uncertainty about Iraq among their base constituencies: a 46 percent plurality of voters in “red states” want to either decrease the number of troops or remove all troops from Iraq. Clearly, the President has not shown decisive leadership in dealing with the situation in Iraq.

LOOKING AHEAD: THE 2006 PLAYING FIELD AND “VALUES”
Iraq and the continued corruption exhibited by Republicans has also helped shift the values playing field going into 2006. Americans feel the choices being made by the people running our government have undermined our nation’s values (6.32 on a scale of 0 to 10). This is a very damning point for an Administration and Party that has risen to power largely around ideas of values and moral leadership.

Americans also continue to reject the idea that so called moral values are confined to abortion and gay marriage. In fact, Americans are much more likely to point to issues such as education, healthcare and poverty as moral issues.

Seventy-nine (79 percent) of Americans feel that it is morally wrong for more and more children to be growing up in poverty, 78 percent feel that it is morally wrong that people who work hard and play by the rules have to live in poverty, and 72 percent feel it is morally wrong that so many of our public school lack adequate funding. On the two main issues conservatives point to when it comes to moral values, just 42 percent of Americans believe it is morally wrong to allow abortions and 47 percent feel it is morally wrong to allow gay marriage.

What we have found time and time again is that Americans are looking for a change in direction and want leaders who will take a stand and make tough decisions. The public is divided on what to do in Iraq, but there is agreement that what we are no longer heading down the right path. Bush is no longer given the same benefit of the doubt that he once was, and Americans, from red states to blue, are looking for a change.

Posted 12.22.05 01:01 PM | Comments

Someone's Grumpy ...

Sen. Chuck Hagel (R) unloaded on Dick Cheney in a conference call 12/21 with NE scribes.

According to the Grand Island Independent, Hagel compared Cheney unfavorably to Ronald Reagan, who he said was not a "vitriolic person or one to impugn the motives of people who disagreed with them." More Hagel: "Never did he do that. There is no place for that in politics because it debases our system and our process." He said Americans are "sick and fed up" with that type of politics. "Cheney's poll numbers are very, very low. ... It doesn't help when you characterize [critics] ... as unpatriotic or not caring about our people or our security. The American people see through that, and it is beneath the dignity of our country."

Then, this gem from the Lincoln Journal-Star: When asked about Cheney's warning that critics of the Bush admin's domestic eavesdropping program could pay a heavy political price, Hagel said, "My oath is to the Constitution, not to a vice president, a president or a political party."

Posted 12.22.05 12:31 PM | Comments

GOP Pollster: A Bad Year For Bush

Republican pollster Steve Lombardo is blunt: the year for President Bush, he says, was a "failure."

Below the jump, read his full e-mail, the introduction to his consulting firm's year-end review.

Lombardo:

"There is really no other way to interpret this political year as anything other than a failure for the Bush administration. Politically, the President took a beating and his end of year numbers reflect that. While a few recent polls show some improvement -- taking the communications offensive on Iraq has helped team Bush stop the hemorrhaging -- the President finds himself with some of the worst 2nd term approval ratings in the last 30 years."

When you compare the approval ratings of the two most recent two-term Presidents - -- Clinton and Reagan -- we see how dismal Bush's numbers are. We took a look at the Gallup approval ratings of each President after their inaugural and at the end of their first year of the second term. In January of 1997 61% approved of Clinton's performance and 26% disapproved. By the end of the year he had an approval/disapproval rating 56/36 -- some decline but not significant. In January of 1985, 59% of Americans approved of Reagan's job performance and 31% disapproved. By the end of the year he actually improved his numbers to a job rating of 63/27. Bush started the year with 57% approval and 40% disapproval. According to the latest national poll by ABC News/Washington Post he has a rating of 47/52. That is a net change of 22%. Other surveys have shown his approval rating in the 35-39% range. While the President may have "bottomed-out" he clearly has still not regained the kind of electoral support necessary for his legislative agenda or his policies.

These numbers are being driven by continuing disapproval of the President's job performance on Iraq and the economy. Iraq is particularly problematic because of the depth and intensity of the dissatisfaction and the unlikelihood of a major change in the operating environment that would improve public opinion.

In the latest ABC News/Washington Post survey, 52% say the war was "not worth fighting" which is identical to 52% who say it was a "mistake" in CNN/USA Today/Gallup. There is a consistent and deep pessimism that has crept into the public mood on the war. Other than temporary improvements in public opinion over the capture of Saddam, the transfer of sovereignty and both Iraqi elections, the overall trend in the public's opinion has been downward.

Particularly disconcerting for the President's team has to be the speed with which this war has become intolerable. A comparative analysis of Gallup Poll data from the 1960's during Vietnam and now for Iraq illustrates the problem. The first time a majority of the public reached the "I think the war is a mistake" point in Vietnam was in 1968 after the Tet Offensive (3 years after the start of the war) and nearly 20,000 dead; while in Iraq, it was in 2004 -- one year after the start of the war with less than 1,000 dead.

In a recent issues of Foreign Affairs, political scientist John Mueller suggest that public support for the Iraq war has collapsed more quickly than it did in Vietnam, and that because we view the number of U.S. casualties as unacceptable, support is unlikely to rebound significantly -- regardless. Mueller's argument is summed up in this example: "If you buy a car for twice what it's worth, even if you come to like the car, you'll still consider the deal to be a mistake."

Two Duke political scientists Chris Gelpi and Peter Feaver (who is now working for the NSA) think that the public will tolerate increased casualties as long as they believe the war is "winnable." They cite their own research that shows even if people believe that the justifications for going to war are wrong ... they will support increased casualties if they believe victory is in sight. This may explain some of Bush's rebound. His recent speeches on the war -- combined with the elections -- have stemmed the tide. Clearly it suggests that the President continue to take the offensive in communicating the importance of being in Iraq and what we are doing to "win."

Looking at the generic congressional ballot and related issues, we continue to see some Democratic strength. We have seen three consecutive national polls showing a 9-12 point lead for Democrats on the generic congressional ballot. These are enough data points to suggest that a very real gap has emerged. As recently as two years ago, it was anywhere from a 4-point Democrat lead or even. However, this is not translating to the belief that Democrats are necessarily better on all issues. In a recent CBS/NYT poll Democrats were believed to "better" on only two of seven issues (Medicare by a large margin and the economy by a small one). Republicans only led on one -- terrorism -- by 29 points. On the other 4 issues the parties were at parity or within the statistical margin of error. This means that while voters may prefer Democrats (generic not real races) that does not necessarily mean that they think they are better at handling issues.

Posted 12.22.05 12:03 PM | Comments

Clips Of The Morning

1. Ralph Reed's raunchy assistant.

2. NH Dems plot primary strategy.

3. Wonder why people say Sen. John McCain (D-Media)? Wonder no more.

From Wake-Up Call: Today's Breakfast Flake:

"I would have chosen Michigan" -- Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA), wishing it were (R-MI).

Posted 12.22.05 09:56 AM | Comments

When Sen. Ted Stevens Last Night Said

"I say goodbye to the Senate tonight."

What did he mean?

Posted 12.22.05 09:40 AM | Comments

Spy V. Hunt

The political metrics of the NSA spying issue are not zero-sum, especially since neither party has figured out the right rhetorical and positional balance on those grand civil liberties-v-national security questions.

Forget George Lakoff: in this debate, facts and narrative both matter.

Our thoughts below are (a) somewhat obviou and (b) positive, not normative.

Most Americans WANT the president to "HUNT DOWN TERRORISTS" and probably care about court orders and oversight secondarily. We wouldn't be surprised if the phrase "court order" sounds to most Americans like "with the support of our allies" sounded during the presidential campaign.

A guess: if the administration can keep the frame on terrorism, Americans won't care as much about the technicalities of whether Bush fibbed when he suggested in '04 that courts supervise surveillance activities. (Given the choice between revealing a highly classified program you believed critical to national security or eliding over distinctions, wouldn't you choose the latter course?)

Dems and civil liberties advocates hope a different narrative prevails. As in -- "domestic surveillance of US citizens."

If, say, thousands of citizens had their e-mail monitored without warrants or domestic to domestic phone calls were picked up, and if the WH knew about it -- then atmospherics favor a challenge to the president's credibility.

Consider: probable Specter hearings in Jan, FISA's own investigation, internal NSA and CIA investigations, inevitable (and serious) court challenges, dueling op-eds, drib-drab revelations of inadvertent miscues and, in six months, a new debate about the Patriot Act -- well if there's domestic creep-us-out stuff there, it'll probably come out.

By the way: we used the word "spy" in the first sentence of this post. We could easily have written this sentence: "the political metrics of the NSA collection program to monitor suspect terrorists..."

If the debate fixates on "spying" -- it's not good for the administration. If "terror" prevails -- it is. [MARC AMBINDER]

Posted 12.22.05 08:56 AM | Comments

The Cuomo Syndrome?

AP nabbed interviews 12/21 with two exiting govs/would-be '08ers -- Dem Mark Warner of VA and GOPer Mitt Romney of MA -- both of whom (shocker!) played coy about their future plans.

Warner, of course, this year formed a federal PAC, Forward Together, that raised more than $2.5M at a fundraiser in McLean, the richest political fundraiser ever in VA. In 7/05, he hired a top adviser to Al Gore's 2000 campaign, Monica Dixon. He's headed back to NH on 2/10 to keynote the NH Dems' 100 Club dinner. (No one, repeat no one, voluntarily goes to Manchester in February unless they're thinking of running for president).

But none of that, Warner protested, means he's locked in to running. "If you've sat in on any of my family discussions, I can assure you, I've not made any decision," Warner, who leaves office in 23 days, told the AP's Bob Lewis.

Romney -- who announced last week that he'll forgo a reelection bid to focus on, well, other things -- told the AP's Glen Johnson that he'll decide whether to run for president in '07. "I think generally people think about these sorts of things being considered some time in '07, not in '05, not in '06, some time in '07," he said as he sat in his Statehouse office, a fire crackling in the fireplace and the smell of smoke wafting through the room.

Nice color, Glen. [JOHN MERCURIO]

Posted 12.22.05 06:51 AM | Comments

December 21, 2005

The Day On The Hill

1. Specter works on Patriot Act deal; tries to promise wavering Sens that he'll hold hearings early in the year on civil liberties.

2. First budget cutting bill since '97 passes the Senate. But Dem procedural motions bottle it up until at least the beginning of Feb b/c the House needs to re-approve it. That gives Dems a month to pound GOPers for allegedly cutting serves for kids and the elderly.

3. ANWR's out until at least the Senate passes its '07 budget resolution. Frist's vaccine liability provisions are still in the defense approps bill, though, and Dems will try to strip it out parliamentarily if it gets to the floor. More details after the jump.

4. Labor/HHS approps should pass the Senate tonight.

Here's what National Journal's CongressDaily has to say about the defense authroization bill:

"The Senate this afternoon will likely proceed to the defense authorization bill, which is not expected to encounter any significant opposition. A cloture motion on that bill is expected to be vitiated, so the bill will likely require only one up-or-down vote. After passing defense authorization, the Senate may return to the Defense appropriations legislation. Republican senators emerging from this afternoon's meeting said there is much opposition to a proposal to pass a resolution stripping the ANWR language out of the conference report. "It takes unanimous consent to go to that, and half the Conference will object," Sen. Gordon Smith, R-Ore. Senate leaders are working to resolve the ANWR impasse, but a solution was unclear at presstime. Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., said with cloture blocked, there is no need for procedural motions Democrats had threatened to secure a ruling that the ANWR provisions were out of scope of conference, in violation of Senate rules. That would have been followed by a GOP motion to overturn the ruling of the chair under Senate Rule 28. "There's no need to appeal to the chair; I don't see that happening," Kerry said.

"That leaves a vote on the Labor-HHS appropriations bill, another vote where Republicans are still struggling to round up needed votes, to occur sometime this evening. Momentum also seemed to be building for a short-term extension of the USA PATRIOT Act, although at presstime the Senate Republican leadership had not backed off its position that the act will expire unless Democrats agree to changes to the law contained in a conference report. "I think it might have to be real simple: Extend it for a period of time we can all agree to. Three months, six months, whatever it is," said Sen. Trent Lott, R-Miss."

And here's what CongressDaily reports about the liability provision:

"Senate Democrats opposed to shielding vaccine makers from lawsuits said today they will raise budget points of order against its inclusion in the FY06 Defense spending conference report. If the bill reaches the floor, Democrats say they will challenge the vaccine provisions, which Health, Education, Labor and Pensions ranking member Edward Kennedy, D-Mass., called a "sweetheart deal for drug companies." The bill's outlook is uncertain because of a cloture vote today that was rejected. Senate Democrats complained that the vaccine language gives drug companies broad protections from lawsuits, beyond the narrow shield Democrats have supported to encourage drug makers to produce vaccines for the avian flu and potential pandemics. For example, the liability provisions kick in once the HHS secretary declares an epidemic. But that definition could encompass chronic diseases or even obesity, which HHS Secretary Leavitt has in the past called "epidemics," said Sen. Tom Harkin, D-Iowa. And Harkin suggested that the ban on judicial review of the HHS secretary's decision could be unconstitutional."

Posted 12.21.05 04:07 PM | Comments

Susan Ralston Speaks!

She's still with KR, she's not leaving, and she's doing her job.

Posted 12.21.05 03:54 PM | Comments

Correction

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee reported $22.4M on hand at the end of November. Our figure was off by about seven million. We regret the error.

Posted 12.21.05 03:10 PM | Comments

TWU Bad For Labor Nationally?

"As I'm walking, I hope they are walking [Transport Workers Union leader Roger] Toussaint to jail," said Peter Johnson, 56, a Columbia College administrator trekking to work along Broadway. "The people this will hurt the most are the working poor. They can't bear another burden, especially at this festive time of the year."

-- NY Daily News, 12/21

Though only two days old, the strike is pushing the millions who in live in and around NYC to the boiling point. And if the anecdotal flavor from the NY tabloids is representative, the TWU is coming in for the lion's share of the blame.

What does this say about the state of organized labor? Perhaps nothing and perhaps it is too soon to gauge. But it is worth considering that this is the first real high profile union strike/walk-out/lock-out since the summer split in the AFL-CIO and the attendant "Whither Labor" stories that the break-up spurred.

Keep in mind, also, that this is not just any strike with a few dozen workers walking a picket line on the sidewalk outside of some factory gates. This is front-page news that is directly impacting the daily lives of millions, not to mention the commerce of one of America's biggest economic engines.

So as the strike continues -- if it continues -- what is to be the political fallout? How do Bloomberg and Pataki come out looking? And as Christmas and Hanukkah draw nearer and the crowds clamoring to see the tree outside of 30 Rock grow, do HRC, Schumer and Spitzer have to speak up? And if so, how do they modulate so as to be tough on Toussaint and the MTA, but not so as to offend the TWA rank-and-file or the likes of Dennis Rivera, John Sweeney and Andy Stern, all of whom who have ties to the tri-state region.

We'd like to hear your thoughts, but we'll just say this -- it does not bode well for Dems and labor when Blue State Ivy Leaguers react to strikes by saying that union chiefs should go to jail.

Posted 12.21.05 03:04 PM | Comments

The Futures Market: Delaware

Another Bottleneck State

As with a number of other small states, DE has a problem: Too much talent, not enough room on the bench. A number of Dems expressed concern that several stellar candidates, all of whom would do well on the nat'l scene, will be forced to run against each other sooner rather than later. Expensive primaries full of talented candidates could leave eventual nominees bloodied and ripe for the picking by GOPers, who are otherwise in the minority. [REID WILSON]

The stars we've been watching since '03:

Troy Brocco (R): Formerly the exec. dir. of the DE GOP, he's returned to his native NJ. He's no longer involved in DE politics.

State Sen. Charles Copeland (R): "At the very top of the up-and-comers list." A likely candidate for GOV in '08.

DE GOP Exec. Dir. Dave Crossan: We caught him on his way up, referring to him as "a force to be reckoned with." Now the party's Exec. Dir., no one has anything bad to say about him.

Atty. Everett Moore (R): Once the chair of the DE GOP, Moore returned to private law practice. He's "sometimes mentioned as a possible candidate down the line."

Ad exec. Paul Pomeroy (R): Lost a bid for State House in '04, his first run for state office. "He still has a viable future in" DE politics.

Atty/Sen. Joe Biden son Beau Biden (D): Will run for AG in '06. "He has the background and can do a good job."

Newcastle Co. Exec. Chris Coons (D): We met him as Newcastle's Co. Council Pres., but he's since moved up. "Very driven but very detail-oriented." Some say being a county executive may hinder him in the long term, while others point to a future clash with Biden and Matt Denn over a federal or statewide seat.

State Insurance Commis. Matthew Denn (D): Formerly Gov. Ruth Ann Minner's (D) legal counsel, Denn was elected statewide in '04.
State Rep. Melanie George (D): Up for re-election in '06. "Whether it's fundraising for the party, candidate recruitment, she's been a good resource for the party."

State Rep. Bethany Hall-Long (D): Prof. at U of DE. Up for re-election in '06.

And the stars to watch in the future:

State Rep. Greg Lavelle (R): Somewhat of a maverick, but "a visionary and a leader."

State Rep. Joe Booth (R): "Tagged with the up-and-comer tag." Most predict he will eventually become Speaker of the State House.

Fed. prosecutor Colm Connolly (R): Appointed by Pres. Bush to be to U.S. Atty for DE, Connolly's been mentioned as a future candidate.

Businessman Ben du Pont (R): Son of ex-DE Gov. Pete du Pont (R). "Look for him to get involved in politics in the next 5 to 10 years."

State Rep. Valerie Longhurst (D): Beat an incumbent GOP State Rep. "Not that [others] don't have the drive, but you see with Valerie that look in her eyes."

State Rep. Diana McWilliams (D): A freshman State Rep., she picked up a GOP open seat.

State Treas. Jack Markell (D): Running for a third term, he's "extremely popular."

Posted 12.21.05 01:42 PM | Comments

Smart, That George Allen

In early Jan, he'll be in Las Vegas to address the Consumer Electronics Show. Potential presidential candidates traditionally don't speak there. But Allen would run in part on "innovation" and there are probably worse ways to get cred with folks on the edge of technology.

BTW: Allen sent out a fundraising e-mail last night, asking supporters to give donations to his re-election campaign before the 12/31 4th quarter FEC fundraising report deadline.

With VA Gov.-elect Tim Kaine's (D) victory 11/05, "the National Democrats got ideas about Virginia. The way Howard Dean and Hillary Clinton see it, if they can turn Virginia from a Republican state into a Democrat one, they will take an enormous step closer to their ultimate goal of taking over Congress and -- ultimately -- the White House. And that all starts with attempting to defeat me in our" '06 re-election campaign. [MARC AMBINDER]

Posted 12.21.05 01:25 PM | Comments

Cloture Fails On Defense Approps W/ ANWR

By a vote of 56 to 44, the Senate failed to stop debate on the '06 defense appropriations bill with the ANWR drilling provision attached.

It now returns to conference, where members will likely strip the ANWR plank from the text and resubmit it for a vote.

Posted 12.21.05 12:41 PM | Comments

AP: Pirro's Out

The AP reports that Jeannine Pirro has dropped out of the NY Sen. GOP primary.

She's expected to announce for A.G. later in the week.

Posted 12.21.05 12:09 PM | Comments

Right Now In Congress

After the jump, an e-mail from a senior Senate leadership aide explains the day from a GOP perspective.

Budget Reconciliation:

Conrad will (has) raised three points of order. these are "technical" issues and have no budgetary impact.

I suspect these points of order to be upheld with votes along party lines (requires 60 votes to waive points of order)

As a result then the offending sections must be struck, and the bill, as amended, will have to be repassed by House before being sent to President to sign into law.

Thus, final passage of budget reconciliation would be delayed until the House reconvenes at end of Jan. They would thwart the will of the majority of Americans who want us to reduce federal spending.

As a result of Democrats delaying the budget reconciliation bill:

-- The Federal welfare program - TANF (Temporary Assistance on Needy Families) expires. As a result, welfare families and the working poor would see their cas payments and child care assistance evaporate.

-- Two billion dollars in federal aid for medical assistance to Katrina victims (Katrina Medicaid) would be denied.

--Medicare reimbursements to physicians serving the elderly would be cut 4.4% driving good doctors out of the Medicare program.

-- transitional medical assistance for families how have worked their way off welfare would be eliminated.

-- we lose $15m a day in deficit reduction.

DoD Approps:

Close but, after working for 20+ years on ANWAR, Ted Stevens deserves his shot on this.

If there are 60 votes, then we would proceed to passage.

If not, then we will need his and the Dems consent to pass an enrolling resolution without ANWAR

We would then pass DoD approprations

House would pass similar resolution later this week by consent.

Vote on Labor, HHS and Defense Reauthorization later in day


Either way, we end year in good shape. Democrats have nothing to offer but obstructism. Patriot Act, Deficit Reduction. No Agenda.

Senate GOP delivers on money for War on Terror, our troops, Avian Flu, aid to Katrina victims.

Posted 12.21.05 11:10 AM | Comments

Cheney Breaks The Tie on Reconcilliation

And a debate on cloture for defense approps is ongoing. The bill includes an ANWR drilling provision.

More later.

Posted 12.21.05 10:38 AM | Comments

Wal-Mart, Tobacco And Democrats

It is an open secret in Washington that many big-name, partisan political strategy firms have affiliates that handle non-partisan, revenue-producing corporate accounts. But the work gets a little tricky for Democratic consultants, especially if they're affiliated with a party that favors populist crusades against big business.

The New York Observer's Smith reported this week that Mark Penn, pollster for Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, was named CEO of a public relations firm that works with Altria, formerly Phillip Morris. And Al Gore took heat for keeping Carter Eskew in his inner circle; Gore regularly lambasted the tobacco industry and Eskew consulted on its behalf.

Today, Wal-Mart figures in many intertwining Democratic relationships. Several coalitions of liberals are arrayed against the company, including two major unions: the Service Employees International Union and the United Food and Commercial Workers (UFCW).

But Leslie Dach, a Clinton administration communications official who served as senior adviser to the DNC during last year's presidential election, now helps Wal-Mart communicate with the public and press. Many centrist Dems believe that Wal-Mart exerts a net positive force on the economy. And Sen. Clinton herself sat for years on Wal-Mart's board when her husband was Governor of Arkansas. (She left the company in 1992, before Wal-Mart's critics say the company began to engage in exploitative practices.)

Wal-Mart sympathizers are trying to discredit Wake Up Wal-Mart, a UFCW-affiliated group, by noting that Joe Trippi, a Wake-Up Wal-Mart consultant, once did work for the same ex-tobacco exec, Robert McAdam, that Wake Up Wal-Mart slammed the retail giant for hiring.

In 1992, Trippi and then-partner Steve McMahon worked with the Tobacco Institute to help the lobby oppose efforts to raise excise taxes on cigarettes. The Tobacco Institute argued that the taxes would disproportionately fall on minorities.

Trippi and McMahon provided political advice and media strategy to the institute, according to a contract drawn up by both parties. McAdam was their point of contact; McMahon was the lead on the account, according to two people familiar with the arrangements.

Associates of both Trippi and McMahon say that McMahon handled more of the corporate work than Trippi, who spent most of his time working for liberal candidates.

In an interview, Trippi said he's working for Wake Up Wal-Mart "on a near volunteer basis. "And Bob McAdam is working full-time for Wal-Mart. Bob McAdam knows full well that that was Steve McMahon's account and not mine. I would be lying if I said I didn't do some of the work. I did. It's also true that it's one of the major factors in my deciding to leave the firm."

Trippi now works as a boutique consultant for a variety of progressive Dems. Wake-Up Wal-Mart's executive director, Paul Blank, declined to comment.

McMahon remains a close adviser to DNC Chairman Howard Dean and has developed a reputation as a Democratic media strategist who handles his corporate clients with skill and discretion.

He is CEO of Issue and Image, and along with partner John Donovan, engineers issue advoacy campaigns for trade associations, non-profits and businesses. Among them: PhRMA, the lobby of the pharmaceutical industry.

Dean has called "big pharaceutical companies" a "special interest," endorsed allowing Americans to import prescription drugs from Canada, and has been criticial of drug companies' marketing practices.

PhRMA contracted with McMahon's Issue and Image to help the lobby defeat California's Proposition 79, which would have forced drug companies to offer steep discounts on drugs to low-income residents. PhRMA used Issue and Image to help promote a competing proposition on the ballot that would have brought the industry's voluntary drug discount program to CA.

McMahon declined to comment on specific clients. But in an interview, he said he stands by his work on behalf of the drug industry.

"My father died of a heart attack when he was 44. I just turned 45 because I take a cholesterol-lowering drug every day," he said. "So I have a different view of the pharmaceutical industry than some of my Democratic friends."

A further twist: Trippi worked to pass the proposition PhRMA opposed.

McMahon maintains a stake in the original political consultant firm, renamed McMahon, Squier and Associates. Candidate clients have included Dean, and ME Gov. John Baldacci and ex-OR Gov. John Kitzhaber.

It was McMahon who introduced Trippi to Dean. McMahon is an unpaid adviser to the Democratic National Committee. And it was Blank who Trippi hired as political director on Dean's presidential campaign.[MARC AMBINDER]

Posted 12.21.05 09:30 AM | Comments

'02 Redux?

The most common comparison made to the upcoming '06 midterms has been '94, when Republicans won 52 seats to take back the House. But could a more apt comparison now be made to '02?

In '02, the prevailing assumption heading into the midterms was that the Dems, as the opposition party often does, would pick up seats. And then, like now, there was a potent political issue over national security -- over the creation of the Homeland Security department. Before the midterms, Dems opposed the bill because they wanted protections for the union rights of homeland security employees.

The recent revelations that the Bush administration conducted eavesdropping without warrants bolstered the Dems' bluster. With the help of 4 GOPers, they are filibustering a long-term reauthorization of the Patriot Act. This may seem like smart short-term politicking, but could the GOPers portray the Dems as obstructing national security, if a reauthorization fails? Could national security trump domestic issues again in '06, and play in the GOP's favor?

Political strategists distinctly remember Saxby Chambliss' controversial ad that cycle, which pictured Osama Bin Laden alongside then-Sen. Max Cleland because he opposed the Homeland Security bill over its insufficient protection of worker rights. Many thought the ad would backfire, but the message resonated. If national security again plays a major role, the GOP might perform better than the gloomy predictions of present. [JOSH KRAUSHAAR]

Posted 12.21.05 09:04 AM | Comments

Anatomy Of An Op (po) (UPDATED)

Wonder who discovered the 2004 video of President Bush assuring his audience that when the U.S. decides to seek wiretapes, it gets FISA approval?

Duncan Blank, the curmudgeon known as Atrios, did so at 8:42 a.m.

On Tuesday morning, the DNC web team came across the quote during a routine search of the White House website. Others at the DNC also discovered it on Atrios's blog.

At 12:08 p.m., the DNCposted it to the DNC's blog.

The DNC keeps video of every televised Bush speech; the Bush utterance was quickly cross-checked.

As the communication office prepared a press release and DNC chairman Howard Dean crafted a statement, DNC officials distributed the quote via e-mail to reporters in Washington.

Within hours, CNN and MSNBC had played the clip. The Hotline noted it on this blog. NBC Nightly News devoted an entire segment to it.

Two things are clear: the RNC probably envies the DNC for their quick work. And that the same quotation would probably have been found by others, eventually. (And truthfully, we can't be certain that these television networks didn't independently find the quote, although we didn't hear about it until the DNC issued its early afternoon press release.) Still, when news cycles turn over rapidly, quickness counts. And more swing voters get their news from NBC Nightly News than from any other evening news program. So score one for the DNC.

Incidentally, The White House told NBC that Bush was speaking specifically about FISA warrants authorized by the Patriot Act. After the jump, we've pasted the full excerpt from Bush's speech so you can judge for yourself. [MARC AMBINDER]

President Bush:

So the first thing I want you to think about is, when you hear Patriot Act, is that we changed the law and the bureaucratic mind-set to allow for the sharing of information. It's vital. And others will describe what that means.

Secondly, there are such things as roving wiretaps. Now, by the way, any time you hear the United States government talking about wiretap, it requires -- a wiretap requires a court order. Nothing has changed, by the way. When we're talking about chasing down terrorists, we're talking about getting a court order before we do so. It's important for our fellow citizens to understand, when you think Patriot Act, constitutional guarantees are in place when it comes to doing what is necessary to protect our homeland, because we value the Constitution.

But a roving wiretap means -- it was primarily used for drug lords. A guy, a pretty intelligence drug lord would have a phone, and in old days they could just get a tap on that phone. So guess what he'd do? He'd get him another phone, particularly with the advent of the cell phones. And so he'd start changing cell phones, which made it hard for our DEA types to listen, to run down these guys polluting our streets. And that changed, the law changed on -- roving wiretaps were available for chasing down drug lords. They weren't available for chasing down terrorists, see? And that didn't make any sense in the post-9/11 era. If we couldn't use a tool that we're using against mobsters on terrorists, something needed to happen.

The Patriot Act changed that. So with court order, law enforcement officials can now use what's called roving wiretaps, which will prevent a terrorist from switching cell phones in order to get a message out to one of his buddies.

Thirdly, to give you an example of what we're talking about, there's something called delayed notification warrants. Those are very important. I see some people, first responders nodding their heads about what they mean. These are a common tool used to catch mobsters. In other words, it allows people to collect data before everybody is aware of what's going on. It requires a court order. It requires protection under the law. We couldn't use these against terrorists, but we could use against gangs.

We had real problems chasing paper -- following paper trails of people. The law was just such that we could run down a problem for a crooked businessman; we couldn't use the same tools necessary to chase down a terrorist. That doesn't make any sense. And sometimes the use of paper trails and paper will lead local first responders and local officials to a potential terrorist. We're going to have every tool, is what I'm telling you, available for our people who I expect to do their job, and you expect to do their jobs.

We had tough penalties for drug traffickers; we didn't have as tough a penalty for terrorists. That didn't make any sense. The true threat to the 21st century is the fact somebody is trying to come back into our country and hurt us. And we ought to be able to at least send a signal through law that says we're going to treat you equally as tough as we do mobsters and drug lords.

There's other things we need to do. We need administrative subpoenas in the law. This was not a part of the recent Patriot Act. By the way, the reason I bring up the Patriot Act, it's set to expire next year. I'm starting a campaign to make it clear to members of Congress it shouldn't expire. It shouldn't expire, for the security of our country. (Applause.)

Administrative subpoenas mean it is -- speeds up the process whereby people can gain information to go after terrorists. Administrative subpoenas I guess is kind of an ominous sounding word, but it is, to put everybody's mind at ease about administrative subpoenas -- we use them to catch crooked doctors today. It's a tool for people to chase down medical fraud. And it certainly makes sense to me that if we're using it as a tool to chase medical fraud cases, we certainly ought to use it as a tool to chase potential terrorists.

I'll tell you another interesting part of the law that needs to be changed. Judges need greater authority to deny bail to terrorists. Judges have that authority in many cases like -- again, I keep citing drug offenses, but the Congress got tough on drug offenders a while ago and gave judges leeway to deny bail. They don't have that same authority to deny bail to terrorists now. I've got to tell you, it doesn't make any sense to me that it is very conceivable that we haul in somebody who is dangerous to America and then they are able to spring bail and out they go.

It's hard to assure the American people that we've given tools to law enforcement that they need if somebody has gone through all the work to chase down a potential terrorist, and they haul them in front of a court and they pay bail, and it adios. It just doesn't make any sense.

Posted 12.21.05 08:31 AM | Comments

December 20, 2005

Cong. Committee November $$

For the month, the DCCC reported raising $2.45M and ended November with $11.24M CoH.

The GOP's committee took in $3.75M and has $19.5M on hand without any debts.

Posted 12.20.05 04:34 PM | Comments

Biden. Verb. To...

Last week, Hotline's Last Call! asked readers to submit definitions of the word "Biden."

The best responses (of all parts of speech):

Your definitions of "biden" took on all parts of speech and were hilarious. Among them: "Shifty like a dog who might deal drugs"; "Squinty from overexposure to klieg lights"; "Excessively tanned"; "Out of place as it relates to suits and them being worn by men from Delaware"; "Gummy"; "Shiny, brilliant as it relates to teeth. Also see 'vain chompers'"; "A state of perpetual Sunday TV presence. See also 'televangelist' and 'Greg Gumbel'"; "To accept a televised interview with little or no hesitancy"; "The condition of a tuft of hair grown long on the front edge of the scalp to create the misleading appearance of additional hair. Also described as 'schum'"; "Never-going-to-be-president"; "Electable"; "Vice-Presidential"; "To biden is to talk at length after saying 'in conclusion'"; "To bloviate"; "Needing constant affirmation of one's beauty, importance, or relevance, gaining such affirmation through televised ubiquity characterized by occasionally bizarre statements. e.g. Administrators were wary after the biden high school senior sent valentines to every girl in his class."; "Ceaselessly preening, as in: 'Jerry Rice was almost catlike on the field, so biden in his care for his accoutrements"; "Delawarish"; "Not quite concise or succinct, perhaps rambling or tedious, dare we say interminable or not really to the point, or even using a plethora or greater number of words when just a few might actually suffice"; "Officious, or as plagiarized from Roget's Thesaurus, self-important"; "Longwinded but brief, well-coiffed but balding"; "Slickly portentious"; "Balding beautifully"; and, "Blabby."

Posted 12.20.05 03:55 PM | Comments

The Futures Market: Connecticut

Like CA, the stars we were watching in '03 have performed well thusfar. Several Dems running for higher office this year may prove to be the DCCC's most formidable recruits in the country. GOPers, meanwhile, are vying for a spot as Gov. Jodi Rell's (R) LG. Both parties agree that CT is chock full of bright young talent, several of whom may be headed for clashes with each other in the not-too-distant future, thanks to just five CDs and Sens who show no sign of leaving any time soon. [REID WILSON]

The stars we've been watching since '03:
State Sen. William Aniskovich (R): Lost re-election in '04. Contemplating a return bid.

Danbury Mayor Mark Boughton (R): Won re-election in '05. Wants to be LG. Earned a lot of points for illegal immigration stand.

Ex-West Hartford Mayor Rob Bouvier (R): No longer involved in politics, taking some time off to spend with his family, although he's been mentioned as a possible LG candidate.

State Rep. Kevin Del Gobbo (R): "Definitely seen as a future candidate." Frequently mentioned as possible statewide candidate. He's thinking about running for Comptroller in '06.

State Sen. Tom Herlihy (R): "Been mentioned as a possible candidate when" Rep. Nancy Johnson retires.

State Sen. John McKinney (R): "The top name on this list."

Westport First Selectwoman Diane Farrell (D): Running for a second time against Rep. Chris Shays (R-CT 04).

Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy (D): Running for Gov. Recently named a rising star by the DLC.

State Sen. Chris Murphy (D): Running for CT 05 against Rep. Nancy Johnson.

State Rep. Melissa Olson (D): Currently "working her way up the seniority ladder." "Young, very smart, very articulate." Strong ties to labor. "If she's interested in going forward, I think she can go places."

Hartford Mayor Eddie Perez (D): "Things here are just booming." He's active with DNC Latino outreach programs and is considered one of the top Latino leaders in the country.

State Rep. Toni Walker (D): Dep Maj Leader. She's "continuing to rise in the ranks at the capitol."

Posted 12.20.05 03:41 PM | Comments

DNC Seeks DoJ Memos

The Democratic National Committee is drafting a FOIA request for info on the NSA's domestic spying program. DNC chair Howard Dean announced the decision in an e-mail to supporters this afternoon.

He wants to see the still-classified legal opinions and memos written by the Justice Department's Office of Legal Counsel on the NSA controversy.

Dean: "Since the program's existence is no longer a secret, these memos should be released -- Americans deserve to know exactly what authority this administration believes it has."

Dean asks recipients to "help pressure" the admin. to release the documents by signing on to the Freedom of Information Act request.

Posted 12.20.05 03:36 PM | Comments

Rove Speaks (Sort Of)

WH DCoS Karl Rove's Office of Strategic Initiatives has put together a memo for reporters and GOPers touting the president's recent recovery in national public opinion polls.

President Bush's Job Approval Shows Gains

Eight surveys show gains of 3 to 23-points during December. December surveys have shown significant gains in job approval, with nearly every study showing the President's job approval in the
mid-40% range.

The President has expanded his support among Republican and Independent voters. The President has increased his job approval by 9-points among Republicans (87%) and by 5-points among
Independent voters (38%). He has even increased his support among Democrats by 4-points.

Surveys in December have shown an average improvement of 11-points on the President's handling of Iraq. The multiple addresses highlighting the "Plan for Victory" and the political, military and
economic progress made by the Iraqi people and our troops led to improved job approval on Iraq.

Six surveys in December show improvements of 3 to 21-points. Surveys in December have shown an average improvement of 15-points on the President's handling of the Economy. December economic trends showed strong growth and momentum in the United States' economy, leading to dramatic increases in the President's job approval on the economy. Seven surveys in December show gains of 5 to 20-points.

December surveys show the President's job approval improved
an average of 10-points. The President's attention to Iraq and the Economy has led to significant gains on those issues.

Diageo/Hotline, 12/12-13/2005, RVs; ABC/Washington Post, 12/15-18/2005, Adults; Gallup, 12/5-8/2005, Adults; CBS/NY Times, 12/2-6/2005, Adults; AP/Ipsos, 12/5-7/2005, Adults; CNN/USA/Today, 12/9-11/2005, Adults; NBC/WSJ, 12/9-12/2005, Adults; Pew, 12/7-11/2005, Adults; ARG, 12/15-18/2005, Adults.

Posted 12.20.05 03:26 PM | Comments

Southern GOP Leadership Conference: Confirmed Speakers

Confirmed speakers at the Southern Republican Leadership Conference in Memphis, TN: Sen. Maj. Leader Bill Frist (R-TN), Mike Huckabee (R-AR) and MA Gov. Mitt Romney. TN Sen. Lamar Alexander is also on the roster. More speakers TBA.

The conference begins on March 9 in beautiful Memphis, TN. The Hotline will sponsor a