December 07, 2005
BIPAC's Map
BIPAC has argued for several cycles that the country remains in a flux, bounded by a few constants. There are roughly twice as many self-identified conservatives as liberals, and even more independents. There is no general tilt in the GOP's direction.
BIPAC's model suggests that voter preferences have shifted within this matrix and are more sophisticated than either party makes them out to be. For example: BIPAC's political guru Bernadette Budde acknowledged there are fewer GOP base voters who are resolutely anti-tax, and that suburban fiscal conservatives have demonstrated their willingness to vote for candidates who support tax increases so long as they're confident the money will be put to good use.
In part, Budde says the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina helped to push these preferences into the open.
That's not to say that voters don't generally prefer tax cuts, just that they are more willing to countenence them and less willing to punish lawmakers who support them in a careful, limited way.
BIPAC's election map is a mix of whites, reds, purples, reds, red/whites and blue/whites. And it illustrates their principle that the '06 elections are not neatly described as red versus blue.
Consider: there are only four states (TX, NV, OH and RI) where both the Gov and Senate incumbents are Republican. (Rhode Island being one of the allegedly 'bluest' states in the country.
-- There are three states where Dem incumbent governors and senators are up for election, including the "red" state of NM.
-- 12 states will feature Gov and Sen elections split between GOP and Dem incumbents.
-- 13 states have either a Gov or a Sen race where the GOP is the incumbent party.
-- 10 states have either a Gov or a Sen race where the Democratic Party's candidate is the incumbent. [MARC AMBINDER]
Posted at 12:49 PM
Comments
"Consider: there are only four states (TX, NV, OH and RI) where both the Gov and Senate candidates are Republican."
Do you mean incumbents?
NAR | 12.07.05 01:15 PM
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I live between Nevada and Los Angeles, with my primary home now in Las Vegas. We've got a Democratic candidate for governor that is so hot she could actually win. Nevada is also very anti-Bush right now, with Republicans and Democrats split evenly. The border issue is killing Terror Guy here. Democrats stand a very good chance in 2006 and beyond. This state is primed to turn bluish-purple. How's that for emphatic.
Taylor Marsh | 12.07.05 01:26 PM
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"Consider: there are only four states (TX, NV, OH and RI) where both the Gov and Senate candidates are Republican."
Huh? I assume this refers to the incumbents up for reelection in '06, but what does this figure actually prove?
A more relevant statistic would be the number of states with a GOP governor and two GOP senators (there are 11: ID, UT, TX, MO, IN, OH, KY, MS, AL, GA, and SC) vs. the number with a Democrat governor and two Democrat senators (there are 6: WA, WI, IL, MI, NJ, and WV).
Boies Penrose | 12.07.05 05:25 PM
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