December 23, 2005
Blogometer Special: The Year In Political Blogging
If 2004 was the year that blogs broke into the mainstream, 2005 saw an acceleration of this trend -- even without a presidential election to focus on. Unlike 12 months ago, the word "blog" itself is almost a household name. Those annoying wire stories that reiterate the fact that "blog is short for web-log" are definitely on the way out. As a tool, blogs are merely the best-known aspect of "Web 2.0," a buzzword commonly used to describe post-dot com bubble innovations that are rejuvenating the Internet, both as a "wild west" of communications. Count RSS, folksonomic tags, wikis, podcasting, companies such as Google and concepts such as the Long Tail as part of the trend. Blogs are closely related to them all. If the above sounds unfamiliar, well, let's see in another 12 months. As a community, blog participation appears to be growing at an exponential pace. Professional ventures continue to join the trailblazing amateurs, and some of those amateurs -- the elite bloggers you are most likely to see quoted in the Blogometer -- are seeing their influence grow along with it. Take media professionals, who have a tortured relationship with the blogosphere: Many check in with a few favorite blogs regularly, others know what's being said but keep them at arms length, and not a few write for blogs. In the blogosphere, they can say for free what their employers would never consider paying them to write. (Count the number of MSM writers who are gainfully employed but also contribute to Huffington Post.)Politicians are jumping into the blogosphere as well, although their reasons are quite different. To elected officials and candidates, blogs can help raise money. Blogs also can serve as an end-run around the establishment media, calling attention to issues and pressuring the MSM to follow up. But the embrace is even less easy than between bloggers and the media; politicians cannot count on even sympathetic bloggers to jump on command, and positive buzz can turn negative on very short notice.
Since our debut in late 3/05, the Blogometer has followed these events day in and day out. In this special edition, we'll try to summarize the major events, big debates, and overlooked stories that characterized the political blogosphere in 2005.
EARLY '06: A Close Schiavo
The fight over Terri Schiavo reached its height just as we launched; our 2nd edition covered her death and the extremely emotional responses. The right split hard -- more than over any other issue this year -- between pro-life advocates who saw removal of her feeding tube to be euthanasia, and those who thought the law was not on the pro-tube side. We quoted the now-defunct Hundred Percenter who de-linked 8 high-profile anti-tube conservatives, including Instapundit and Little Green Footballs. INDC Journal's Bill Ardolino, one of the delinkees, responded: "The subtext of that post: 'Hillary '08!'"
Beyond Schiavo, the other early event that set the stage for Pres. Bush's long, slow decline in the polls was his abortive attempt to overhaul Social Security. In the end, there was too much reticence about dramatically altering the program and not enough support outside of business and conservative activists. Caution carried the day. As Matt Yglesias wrote at the time: "It's important to recall that we don't actually have the ability to make binding decisions about what Social Security will look like in the distant future. The program has only just recently reached the end of its very first 75 years and it's already been drastically changed several times."
Just a few months after the story known to some as Memogate and others as Rathergate, conservative bloggers seized on another apparent memo fiasco: The Washington Post reported that a GOP memo had declared the Schiavo case to be a "great political issue." Michelle Malkin and Mickey Kaus were among those who suspected another hoax or at least overzealous reporting by the Post's (now Time's) Mike Allen. Crosstown rival Washington Times gave this interpretation with a front-page, above-the-fold splash: "Was the Schiavo memo a fake?" Eventually it turned out the memo was not a fake; it had come from a mid-level staffer in Sen. Mel Martinez's (R-FL) office. Most who pushed this theory acknowledged the truth, lefty bloggers had a good laugh, and by this point is almost entirely forgotten. It is worth remembering as a reminder that blogs often push erroneous stories, and that once exposed, the misconceptions are more often than not quietly dropped.
DELAY: The Sugar Land Express
As the list of TRMPAC and Abramoff-related accusations against then-House Maj. Leader Tom DeLay piled up early in the year, some on the left feared that he might be gone too quickly to be an effective bogeyman during the '06 midterms. In early 4/05, Sam Rosenfeld of TAPPED cautioned: "What did our president call it when Saddam fell too quickly? A catastrophic success. Think about it. Hands off DeLay!" And by late 4/05, conservative bloggers at RedState and UCLA law prof Stephen Bainbridge were calling on DeLay to resign. == If anything, the coverage of DeLay's eventual step down has been characterized by one lull after another. The one exception was the day his eventual indictment by controversial DA Ronnie Earle.
IRAQ/TERRORISM/TORTURE: Sour Ghraibs
In mid-May, Newsweek published a few allegations of poor treatment at Gitmo by detainees there. Most memorable, and most questioned, was the report that a Koran had been flushed down a toilet. To the left, Newsweek was just the latest MSM to cave to admin. criticism, but to conservatives it was a betrayal. Austin Bay suggested that "history may see Newsweek's fatal 'Koran flushing' story as the US press' Abu Ghraib."
A few weeks after the Gitmo event, Amnesty Int'l suggested that Gitmo was a "gulag." Not long after, Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL) invoked Nazi atrocities when describing U.S. detainment practices. An uproar ensued, with conservatives interpreting his remarks as a direct comparison between the Bush admin and the Third Reich; liberals deemed that a misinterpretation. But Durbin apologized anyway, thus losing the strong support he had enjoyed from the lefty blogs.
Versions of this debate played out several times throughout the year, such as when the Washington Post reported on the existence of CIA prisons in Europe, over the existence of Able Danger, and now once again re: Bush's authorization of domestic wiretaps without specific court orders. The left considers it valuable reporting on a WH that's liable to do anything. With the sometime exception of torture, the right is angry not at Bush but the media. Many have called for prosecution of the leaks that resulted in these stories.
JUDGES: Filiblustering
The next signature fight of the early summer was over Bush's circuit court judges and the extant Dem filibuster that had kept them from a vote on the Senate floor. Senate Maj. Leader Bill Frist, then a more likely WH '08 candidate than now, indicated his willingness to change Senate rules -- the "nuclear" (or "constitutional") option, and opinion tended to break neatly along party lines. But in the blogosphere, several liberal bloggers decided they'd be better off if Frist succeeded in getting rid of the filibuster.
Labor blogger Nathan Newman argued that "filibusters are inherently more of an obstacle to progressive government than a block to conservative politics." And while liberal and conservative bloggers endlessly debated whether the GOP's opposition to ex-Pres. Clinton's nominees was equivalent, the issue never came to a head: on 5/23, 7 GOPers and 7 Dems agreed on a compromise. Neither side was particularly encouraged. The Anchoress, from the right: "It's gonna be a long cold day before the [GOP] sees a dime of my money. A long. Cold. Day. Can someone please explain to me why, with 57% support from the nation ... the GOP caved on this?" Jesse Taylor, from the left: "Democrats win, basically. But they win in a way that is neither sure nor particularly productive in the long term." But it didn't take more than a few months for the CW to change, thus vindicating self-described "RINOs" like Mark Coffey, who had created a sidebar button for GOP-leaning bloggers who approved of the deal: "The Coalition of the Chillin." For a time, it allowed centrists such as Jeff Jarvis to wonder if the moderates could find a way to rule on other issues. But eventually it gave way to bigger fights over the SCOTUS vacancies that were coming soon.
SCOTUS: A Supreme Snoozer, A Serious QuagMiers, And Alito's Way
The filibuster compromise came at an opportune time for GOPers, as long-expected SCOTUS vacancies were indeed imminent. Over the months, many many rumors moved from conservative legal circles to RedState. Most, but not all, were wrong. The majority came from GA political consultant Erick Erickson, but one of the 1st (and one of the 1st wrong ones) came from Southern Appeal's Steve Dillard at RedState's Confirm Them: "Rehnquist will step down in the next four weeks: I don't think this news will come as a surprise to anyone, but I just received a phone call from an extremely reliable source who tells me that it's a done deal."
When Sandra Day O'Connor stepped down instead, up went the nomination of judge John Roberts, who proved to be relatively uncontroversial, even when switched to the CJ seat. Only when Rehnquist passed away, and Bush named WH counsel Harriet Miers to the bench did the 'sphere go wild. But the outrage came from the left, not the right, in a near reprisal of the angst over the filibuster compromise. This time ex-BC'04 webmaster (and soon to be RNC eCampaign dir.) Patrick Ruffini adopted the "Coalition of the Chillin'" logo for his pro-Miers group. Nevertheless, her withdrawal was a relief to conservatives. The left was more or less left scratching its head -- had they opposed her too little? Too much? And what came next? Next up for SCOTUS: Judge Samuel Alito, whose favor by conservatives and disfavor by liberals has restored the natural order of confirmation battles.
HACKETT: OH My
The summer doldrums brought 2 unexpected stories to the fore. One was the surprisingly strong candidacy of OH House special election candidate/Iraq vet Paul Hackett, who came within a few points of defeating now-Rep. Jean Schmidt in a heavily GOP district. Working in his favor was the OH GOP-implicating Coingate scandal, and the enthusiastic support of some influential liberal blogs, due in large part to Hackett's blunt criticism of Bush. Our 8/3 edition best summarized the frantic, heady week of fundraising and campaigning that led up to the 8/2 vote. Hackett became even more of a left-blogosphere hero after the election.
Later, Hackett's entry to the OH SEN race against fellow lefty blog favorite Rep. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) would cause a minor controversy that resulted in the retirement of "liberal blogfather" Jerome Armstrong. We covered it 1st on 10/26, and followed up again with some original reporting on 11/1
SHEEHAN: Mother, Should I Trust The Government?
The 2nd big story was anti-war gold star mother Cindy Sheehan, who brought the anti-war movement as close as it's come to breaking out as a popular movement since the Iraq invasion. As we wrote on 8/16, "It may turn out that 2005 will be the Summer of Sheehan -- no matter which side of the increasingly emotional divide one finds themselves, the fact remains that it is an incredibly compelling and unnerving debate." Her encampment outside Bush's Crawford home during the dog days of summer -- in close proximity to a news-starved WH press corps -- and promotion by ex-Dean manager Joe Trippi helped get the media to pay attention, eventually turning her into a household name. Of course, much bigger news was in the offing. While she appeared in Time's year-end issue and still gets occasional publicity from the MSM, liberal bloggers almost never mention her, and conservatives only bring her up for the purposes of mocking the movement she represents.
KATRINA: The Battle Of New Orleans
We wrote on 8/29: "The only story that matters this a.m. is Hurricane Katrina. Where many had assumed the city could have been utterly destroyed, it seems clear at this point that it has been spared the worst: There will probably still be a New Orleans tomorrow."Within days, however, it was clear that N.O. (as many of us soon learned to abbreviate it) was not spared. And with Bush's slow response, embodied in an ill-advised guitar-holding photo op in San Diego and his ill-considered praise for now-ex-FEMA dir. Michael Brown, conservatives stopped holding back their criticism. While Bush hadn't had an easy time of it from the blogs previously, Katrina damaged him severely.
PLAMEGATE: The Spy Who Came In From The Cold And The Adviser Who Came In For Some Heat
What's there to say about Plamegate that hasn't already been analyzed from three or more angles? Between 6/20 and 12/16, now-ex-CIA "operative" Valerie Plame was mentioned in 88 of 118 Blogometer editions, frequently as the top story. The case was probably the closest-watched story of the year. At the outset, liberal bloggers almost to a person believed the WH had deliberately made her name public to "punish" her husband, ex-Amb. Joe Wilson, for contradicting their assertions about pre-war WMD intel. Months later, this line of speculation has largely disappeared, and if anything most of the controversy now focuses on the New York Times apparently inept handling of the case. Times reporter Judy Miller, long disliked by the left, eventually came to loom larger than Novak or Wilson or Karl Rove. Eventually it even came to somewhat tarnish Bob Woodward, who knew about Plame, apparently from the same source as Novak.
Although the case had been discussed at some length during '03, when Bob Novak published her name in a column, and the inquiry launched, the whole thing went big-time on 7/2 with the Huffington Post-hosted revelation by MSNBC's Lawrence O'Donnell that Rove had told/"leaked" Plame's name to Time's Matt Cooper. When the post first went up, the title was "Rove Blew CIA Agent's Cover"; later this was revised to the more cautious "It's Rove..." Despite skeptics like Kaus, O'Donnell had it largely right.
By mid-July, speculation ran so rampant we tried to keep track of it all. Among the theories we counted, all of which were wrong or are yet unknown five months later: "WH dep. CoS Karl Rove could face espionage charges rather than mere indictment under intelligence protection statues; Ex-Amb. Joe Wilson may have leaked wife Valerie Plame's role in his Niger trip to friends in the Washington press; New York Times' Judy Miller may have leaked the Wilson/Plame gossip to the WH; Or, Miller and the Times may be protecting another source, one unsympathetic to the WH; Ex-WH spokesperson Ari Fleischer may have leaked Plame's name."
Then came the near-jailing of Cooper, the actual-jailing of Miller, the 9/30 confirmation that Cheney CoS Scooter Libby was Miller's source, and then the 10/28 indictment of Libby. In the weeks leading up to this, the left-blogosphere had designated indictment day "Fitzmas," after special prosecutor Patrick Fitzgerald. It was a subdued one, as Rove escaped indictment. But as we head into '06, that possibility still hangs over Rove, and the WH.
BLOGGER OUTREACH: Gettin' To Know You
Dems have had the advantage of a "netroots" well developed during the invisible primaries of WH'04, and early in the year, DNC chair Howard Dean and Senate Min. Leader Harry Reidheld conf. calls with sympathetic bloggers. In early June, ex-VP nominee John Edwards "had a bunch of the political bloggers over for dinner at his D.C. house, I'm told, to meet with him, his Internet team, and his wife." But they haven't done much lately.
The GOP, meanwhile, largely ignored even the right-blogosphere until the fall of this year. Following the Miers disaster, the RNC and cong. GOPers wised up, and improved their outreach. On 10/20, the Blogometer attended a 10/20 "blog row" event for conservative bloggers to meet with GOP House members on Capitol Hill. We wrote then: "Events such as these highlight the blurring lines of journalism. It was aimed at amateur bloggers, but they weren't the only ones invited. ... Add to that, the caucus also filmed and photographed the event for its own purposes. While the interest in forging ties with amateur bloggers seemed genuine, it was also a rolling photo-op -- for the benefit of not just the MSM, but the blogosphere as well."
MISCONCEPTIONS: Drop It Like It's Hot
The Downing Street Memo is an issue frequently described as the subject of blogger buzz. Indeed, there are and were blogs started about it. But it never became a cause celebre of the biggest bloggers, and that was the source of some consternation on lower-traffic lefty blogs. Yet the story still got out, suggesting that the biggest blogs don't have to promote an issue for it to take hold. Not that it went anywhere -- for many it was old news, or they decided the memo didn't necessarily say what the memo's proponents argued it did. A contributor to The Next Hurrah lamented an "impeachment fatigue" that rendered all impeachment talk "tin foil hat-ish."
Somewhat different but along the same lines was Ed Klein's anti-Hillary book. Did right-wing bloggers eat it up? No, actually they tore it apart. It suffered in part because it included (and Matt Drudge heavily promoted) a particularly vicious false rumor about the Clintons' marriage. While a hot potato, nobody really believed it, and Ed Morrissey had a representative take: "I'm no fan of the Clintons, but the Right has had its problem reining in its vitriol regarding Bill and Hillary since 1992."
REGULATION: The Rules Of The Game
Bloggers of the left and right tend to be more libertarian than their offline counterparts, and early on RedState co-founder Mike Krempasky and Daily Kos founder Markos Moulitsas joined forces to support cong. legislation protecting bloggers from new campaign finance rules, and later to argue before the FEC that online political activity should not be subject to new FEC rules. We were there on 6/29 when Duncan "Atrios" Black and others appeared before the FEC to argue their case. And in an important but overlooked ruling in late Nov., MO Dem consultant Roy Temple got approval from the FEC for his blogs to be treated just like any other media org, with a "press exception" from campaign finance laws.
BY THE NUMBERS: Down For The Count
As journalists, we tend not to be numbers people. But we still like counting. Here's a few fun facts about this year's Blogometer, from 3/30 to 12/16:
- Number of editions prior to this one: 175
- Number of words, total: 615,313
- Average Blogometer length: 3,516
- Longest edition: 9/6's "The Battle of New Orleans," at 6,866 words
- Shortest edition: 12/14's "Briefing Papers," at 2,213
- What's longer, the '05 Blogometer or "Infinite Jest": The Blogometer, barely
- Most-cited blog: Daily Kos by a country mile, at 456 links
- Next 9 most-cited blogs: RedState (301), The Corner (212), Power Line (212), Captain's Quarters (211), Michelle Malkin (211), MyDD (208), Eschaton (200), Instapundit (197), HuffPo (176)
- Least-cited blog: Most of them, i.e. all the ones we never linked to.
POSTSCRIPT: Back To The Future
So what happens next year? One thing we're sure of is that blogs will become a major force in the midterm elections. Quite a few have already organized, but many more are coming. In particular, watch for them to take over not just the dissemination of oppo, but also the collection of it. And thanks to the FEC's ruling that even highly partisan blogs are covered by the press exception, watch for more non-profits and ideologically aligned think tanks to get into the blogging business.
Meanwhile, the fact that blogs are becoming more important to communications and logistics outside of politics will only reinforce their importance, even as we cease to realize how pervasive they are. Indeed, watch over the coming year(s) as website re-designs incorporate the tools of blogging. Where the community goes is another question altogether. To follow the bloggers is to follow an often fascinating group of writers and their contentious debates. They're not as easy to romanticize as Hemingway's fellow expats in post-war France, or Dorothy Parker's table of fellow wits -- at least not yet. Nevertheless, there is a very real sense of a community -- even there are two distinct halves who have little use for the other. But as new bloggers and new organizations set up shop in the politically-minded corner of the blogosphere, these circles will change. We won't presume to know how. But in 12 months time, the place may look a lot different once again.
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Posted at 04:50 PM
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