December 22, 2005
DNC Internal Memo: The Year In Review, '06 In Preview
Dem Hill aides, campaign mgrs and consultants are getting their year-end memo from the Democratic National Committee and its pollster, Cornell Belcher today.
The key point, per the memo: "Americans feel the choices being made by the people running our government have undermined our nation’s values (6.32 on a scale of 0 to 10). This is a very damning point for an Administration and Party that has risen to power largely around ideas of values and moral leadership."
Full text after the jump.
December 21, 2005
TO: Interested Parties
FR: DNC Communications
Brilliant Corners Research & Strategies
RE: BUSH AND THE GOP IN 2005: LOST CREDIBILITY AND THE DEMOCRATIC REVIVAL
The Democratic National Committee Communications team and lead pollster Cornell Belcher of Brilliant Corners Research and Strategies prepared this memo to examine the toll that the Bush White House’s repeated strategic and tactical errors have taken on the President’s credibility.
In November of 2004, a majority of American voters supported Bush because they viewed him as a moral, strong and decisive leader in an increasingly dangerous and hostile world. In a post-2004 election survey done by Brilliant Corners, 32 percent of voters open-endedly said they voted for Bush not based on any of his policy proposals, but because of “his strong and decisive leadership.” Thirty-two (32) percent pointed to his “strong morals” as the reason why they voted for him and 19 percent said it was because of his “job with the War on Terror.” Indeed, his presidency was predicated on the perception that he was a strong moral leader.
What a difference a year makes.
Twelve months later, the very foundation that Bush’s support was built on has been swept away by the deepening storm waters of Iraq, myriad scandals, corruption and Katrina. As this foundation erodes, we find his entire presidency folding like a house of cards. Americans no longer approve of what this administration is doing - from Iraq and the economy to ethics in government. Most importantly, even as President Bush’s job approval ratings have seen a slight holiday uptick this December, his credibility remains low, jeopardizing his ability to regain his footing in 2006.
2005 has seen a string of failures for Bush and the Republican Party. At each turn, Bush’s credibility has suffered and he has become a drag on the Republican Congress. Starting with the failed attempt to gut and overhaul Social Security to the Terri Schiavo case, to the Valerie Plame leak, to the realization that the basis for our involvement in Iraq was based on half-truths and cherry-picked intelligence, Americans have become increasingly untrusting of Bush and the Republican Party their culture of corruption and cronyism.
It is vitally important to remember where President Bush began. Right after 9/11 he could count on 87 percent approval. And at the beginning of 2005, he still had a very robust 58 percent approval. Since then though, the aforementioned problems began taking their toll. At his height in 2005, 56 percent of Americans thought that Bush was honest and trustworthy. Now, at the end of the year, a majority of Americans no longer believe that he is1.
Social Security
In January, right after winning re-election, President Bush embarked upon a campaign to rally public support around his risky scheme to privatize Social Security. Even with the political capital he earned with his Presidential win, by April, “the drive to overhaul Social Security -- the centerpiece of Bush's agenda” appeared “stalled.” [Associated Press, 4/8/05] This was the beginning of Bush’s troubles.
Terri Schiavo
In March, the Bush Administration and the Republicans in Congress tried to politically exploit the case of a Florida woman, Terri Schiavo, by taking extraordinary measures to supersede state law. This intrusiveness and overreaching on the part of Washington Republicans hurt the White House. President Bush’s approval rating at the time had dropped to barely more than 50 percent from 57 percent in early February according to Gallup.
Bush’s Awful August
Once again, President Bush decided to spend most of the month of August on vacation in his ranch in Texas. During that time, many Americans saw him as disengaged in the nation’s affairs. His credibility rating at the end of the month had dropped to 51 percent, down from 54 percent in July and 56 percent at the beginning of the year.
Hurricane Katrina
The President’s lackluster response to the deadly aftermath of Hurricane Katrina and the media firestorm that ensued further eroded President Bush’s credibility. By mid-September, with the White House’s incompetence further revealed, Bush’s credibility number had dropped to 47 percent, the lowest percentage of his Presidency according to Gallup. This period also marked the lowest point of Bush’s support. A Washington Post/ABC poll showed that support for the President was in freefall. At that time, just 39 percent of voters approved of the job that Bush was doing. His credibility numbers also took a giant hit.
Libby and DeLay Indictments, Senate Shut-Down, November Election
Over the months of October and November, President Bush took a number of political hits. From the felony indictments of former top Cheney aide Scooter Libby and former GOP Majority Leader Tom DeLay to the shut-down of the Senate over the GOP’s failure to investigate the Bush Administration’s manipulation of pre-war intelligence and finally the historic Democratic gubernatorial wins in Virginia and New Jersey, President Bush and his party did not fare well in the fall of 2005. The President’s poll numbers bear this out. His approval rating bottomed out at 39 percent in November, and his credibility numbers continue to slide or hold steady at near 50 percent, according to Gallup.
GENERAL THEMES: BUSH’S STRENGTHS ARE NOW LIABILITIES
President Bush has also seen erosion in one of his core strengths: the public has always seen him as an honest and effective leader. He was often described as “a good man” and a “strong leader”. At the beginning of 2005, 61 percent of Americans agreed that he was a strong leader. Now, after a year of missteps and catastrophes, a majority of Americans (53 percent) no longer feel that he is a strong leader.
This decline in confidence of the president is also reflected in how people view the direction of the country. At the beginning of 2005, 44 percent of Americans felt that the country was on the right track, with 51 percent feeling that things were headed in the wrong direction. In December we find that the number of people who feel that the country is headed in the wrong direction has grown to 64 percent, while just a third (33 percent) believe things are headed in the right direction.
In September of this year, in our own polling done by Brilliant Corners, we found that the war in Iraq (24 percent), leadership (20 percent) and the economy (11 percent) were the biggest reasons for voter dissatisfaction. Dissatisfaction with the war was the top reason not only for Democrats but for independent voters as well. They feel that America is less safe these days; incredibly, just 23 percent of Americans have a great deal of confidence that the government would be able to effectively respond to another terrorist attack. A majority of Americans no longer feel the war has made America safer (57 percent) or has been worth the price (60 percent) .
And indeed, Americans are deeply divided about what should be done now in Iraq: 44 percent of swing voters think we should either increase our number of troops (14 percent) or keep the same number of troops (30 percent), while 44 percent of swing voters think we should decrease the number of troops (19 percent) or remove all our troops (25 percent). Even Republicans are seeing anxiety and uncertainty about Iraq among their base constituencies: a 46 percent plurality of voters in “red states” want to either decrease the number of troops or remove all troops from Iraq. Clearly, the President has not shown decisive leadership in dealing with the situation in Iraq.
LOOKING AHEAD: THE 2006 PLAYING FIELD AND “VALUES”
Iraq and the continued corruption exhibited by Republicans has also helped shift the values playing field going into 2006. Americans feel the choices being made by the people running our government have undermined our nation’s values (6.32 on a scale of 0 to 10). This is a very damning point for an Administration and Party that has risen to power largely around ideas of values and moral leadership.
Americans also continue to reject the idea that so called moral values are confined to abortion and gay marriage. In fact, Americans are much more likely to point to issues such as education, healthcare and poverty as moral issues.
Seventy-nine (79 percent) of Americans feel that it is morally wrong for more and more children to be growing up in poverty, 78 percent feel that it is morally wrong that people who work hard and play by the rules have to live in poverty, and 72 percent feel it is morally wrong that so many of our public school lack adequate funding. On the two main issues conservatives point to when it comes to moral values, just 42 percent of Americans believe it is morally wrong to allow abortions and 47 percent feel it is morally wrong to allow gay marriage.
What we have found time and time again is that Americans are looking for a change in direction and want leaders who will take a stand and make tough decisions. The public is divided on what to do in Iraq, but there is agreement that what we are no longer heading down the right path. Bush is no longer given the same benefit of the doubt that he once was, and Americans, from red states to blue, are looking for a change.
Posted at 01:01 PM
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