December 01, 2005
The 2006 Midterms
Moderator: John Mercurio, The Hotline
Panelists: Chris LaCivita, LaCivita Consulting
John Lapp, DCCC
Ed Patru, NRCC
Guy Cecil, DSCC
Brian Nick, NRSC
Can Dems retake the House? Realistically?
DCCC exec. dir. John Lapp: "Everyday, there seems to be another indictment, another guilty plea...if we look at the number of retirements to date, it's been in the 10, 15, 18s..a low amount. Until we know about that number, we won't know [how many seats we can pick up]. Let me tell you this: I'd rather be us than them now. We have over 40 candidates in top seats... we have great candidates, like Heath Schuler, who is a better candidate than he was quarterback for the Redskins...of everything we can control...we are doing what we need to do...in terms of campaign and committee financing.."
NRCC dep. comm. dir., Ed Patru: "Trying to take back the House running on Duke Cunningham or running on Abramoff or any other issue may sound good inside the beltway. But in the real world, House races are local phenoms... voters have good relationships with [their members]...most of our incumbents are battled tested...if the issue is ethics here..it's a losing issue for Dems b/c we're more than happy to point the figure at them. Nancy Pelosi is the only leader in Cong. to have been fined by the FEC for having too mant PACs. Rahm Emanual..went to Chicago to campaign for Richard Daley... when ethics are brought up, most voters ... look at Cong. and the approval level drops as an institution."
Lapp: "Yeah, hate the Congress, love your member. But there's an ABC News poll that shows a generic Dem would be chosen over a Republican 53 to 44 percent, and we've polled and have yet to see a re-elect number [for Republicans] over 43 percent. When you have the number of indictments, it's not guilty by association... it's not just the culture of corruption, it's what's at stake because of that...when there is an oil and gas giveaway bill...when they're cutting student loans at the times they're giving these million dollar giveaways."
On NRSC recruiting
NRSC comm. dir. Brian Nick: "If you look at the blue states...candidates are stepping up...to the plate to take on incumbents. McGavick will give Maria Cantwell all she can handle. We have open seats in MN, MD and NJ, where we have...Kean..Steele..and if you look at the state of Michigan, we have top-tier candidates in there as well...Shelley Moore Capito opted not to run against a very well-entrenched long-standing Senator, so I'm not sure if that's a national trend. And if you look at the open seats...MN, MJ and MD, we have top-tier candidates and by the way, the Dems have primaries...even in NE...."
On why the Dems didn't recruit well in NV
DSCC pol. dir. Guy Cecil: "It's a good sign that we're talking about the seventh state we are recruiting in..,.and the the definition of top-tier recruit has been expanding for the NRSC...you look at MI...three people have said no to that race, you look at NE, where the current president has described the incumbent as the kind of Dem we can work it. In Florida, Brian can't seem to find enough bad things to say about Katherine Harris; we can't seem to find enough good things to say about Bill Nelson."
Recruiting, Recruiting, Recruiting
Nick: "Maine has been a state they've talking about ..Virginia has been a state they're talking about..and they're no where. And Ohio..."
Cecil: "Ohio...we have two candidates...The better our recruiting gets, the more their story changes, and the more their standard of what a top-tier candidate is [changes too]..take six states that we have challengers and where they have cases...they have not gotten their first...second..and in some cases third cases..even with the White House involved."
Ex-NRSC Pol. Dir. Chris LaCavita: "At the end of the day, we're a year away from election day and everybody here..not only is a year an eternity or a month is an eternity. No one knows what's going to happen politically....the fact that the Democrats have 14 incumbents, we have 5 open seats, one is a GOP seat..(Frist's)...Dems have to hold those four seats. Just do the math...and look at it from a historical perspective. From 1988, 88 percent of Republican incumbents have been re-elected. If the Dems win all their open seats and we lose two seats, we're still in the majority. I still think the GOPs ability to manage a campaign on a state-by-state basis...is much better...provided that Republicans don't forget to counter attack and attack during the campaigns."
What It Will Take For Dems To Win
Cecil: "Dems have to enumerate a message. We can't just be against Republicans. But I don't agree that there's one person who will galvanize the party. What I do think is, is a discussion about Social Security, perscription drugs...and fiscal discipline and on the issue of the Iraq war. There is no doubt that on both sides of the aisles there are differences of opinion about Iraq...the question is: do we have confidence there is a plan to ... get out troops out and win the war safely."
The Most Vulnerable Incumbent On The Other Side
LaCavita: Debbie Stabenow
Nick: Bob Casey, Jr...a candidate who we've not heard from on any issue of substance...his campaign manager did a great job of hiding Mike Easley from the issues as well. Unfortunately, he is going to have to talk about the issues and Sen. Santorum is going to eat his lunch when it happened.
Patru: OH-6, the seat held by Wilson. The Dems have a candidate there, Charlie Wilson. We'd love to see them bring up the issue. And Heath Schuler...by the time we're doing, he's going to be longing for the days when he was in the NFL getting knocked in the rear end.
Lapp: "Anytime you mentioned Donald Trump and the Apprentice in the Allison Shwartz seat..."
Cecil: "Mark Kennedy"
DSCC's Cecil: "We're waiting to see what happens...but right now there are four Dem incumbents that have ... top tier opponents. MI, FL, NE and WA. Certainly, the make up of NE, the fact that it is on a party reg. basis as Republican as it is makes it a challenge for any Dem running there. When you look at the numbers, it's difficult ofr Dems to get beyond 53 or 54 percent. The other of the four would be WA -- it's an expensive state, Cantwell is in her first term. We've got Katherine Harris, which speaks for itself. And we've got MI, where no one has run for anything but sheriff.
DCCC's Lapp: "Well, we have the frontline program...but Herseth in SD, Moore of KS...I like our dynamics. On their side, Cong. Gerlach apparently had an accounting issue..."
NRSC's Nick: "One of the reasons why we feel very third about RI is that they're on at least their third tier candidate after being turned down by two Congressmen....Santorum in PA..(but..the last time Casey had a double digit lead on a candidate...his name was Ed Rendell.)..The state of OH, just because of the political dynamics. When you have a governor that's in the teens, it makes it difficult. You have a very independent minded senator named Mike DeWine..."
1994 to 2006
NRCC's Patru: "If you compare 1994 to 2005 and 2006..the real difference is the size of the playing fields. In '94, there was 105 competitive races...95 were Democrat-held seats. This year, there are 27 competitive races..17 are held by Republicans, 10 are held by Democrats. Not only must Dems defend their 10 most vulnerable members, they'd have to win 15 of the 17 seats held by Republicans...that's 93 percent. The problem the Dems have today... is, without expanding the playing field, they have no hope of putting the House back in play." Most vulnerable: Boustany in LA, Northup in KY and Porter in NV. In all three of those races, Dems have yet to recruit a candidate."
Lapp: "If the leader of my party and was guilty and has to step down, and people are taking bets when Bob Ney, the mayor of Capitol Hill is going to be indicted, I'd talk about tactics, too."
Patru: "When voters go the polls, they're going to be voting on their member of Congress...their candidates...not talking about the DCCC's talking points or their national message. The Dems don't have cash, they don't have candidates, and they're lacking a message."
Posted at 02:11 PM
Comments
What does the NRCC have on Charlie Wilson? I keep hearing over and over from NRCC hacks that he's damaged goods... but to my eyes, the state senator seems like a better candidate than state Rep. Blasdell who barely won reelection last time...
Same thing on Heath Shuler... the NRCC keeps claiming that they're going to rough him up... are these just fighting words or do they have something dirty up their sleeves?
seank | 12.01.05 05:05 PM
 |
What about Ralph Norman, the challenger toj Asst. Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, here in Conservative South Carolina? We have been hearing he is top-tier. He met with Karl, and Ken, in DC, and has allready raised tons of money.
PalmettoNeocon | 12.02.05 01:04 PM
|
Post a comment
The Watergate · 600 New Hampshire Ave., NW
Washington, DC 20037
202-739-8400 · fax 202-833-8069
NationalJournal.com is an Atlantic Media publication.
