December 01, 2005
The Declining Bush Mandate
Moderator: Larry J. Sabato, Center for Politics
Panelists:
--Fred Barnes, Fox News
--Carl Cannon, National Journal
--Rosiland Jordan, NBC News
--Susan Page, USA Today
USA Today's Susan Page: "the problems Bush faces goes to the heart of why he won independents in both elections."
National Journal's Carl Cannon: "There's a fatigue factor...in the modern news cycle. These presidents think they need to do an event a day..and people just tune the guy out. Even people who don't disagree with him on the war."
NBC's Rosalind Jordan: "People are turning off. What's more surprising...people seem to be turning away from him personally. We've started to see a downward trend in the president's personal appeal to voters. People basically want to root for the president regardless of party, and I think that if no one likes you, no one wants to stand by you."
Weekly Standard's Fred Barnes: "We live in an usual time where politics is enormously polarized. Maybe 45 percent is not rooting for the president. There are not many true independents...not kmany true swing voters...In the next 38 months, he won't get them back. Pres. Bush will have to rule from a narrow majority. I don't believe he has turned off a majority of Americans politically and personally, but he does have to win back a few of them. But Bush functions well from a historically low presidential approval rating."
Why Is Iraq Such A Big Deal?
Jordan: "The CIA leak investigation has bought everyone back to these questions of, how was the case for war made, how was that case being sold to the American public, who were the people who were picked to be the conduits. That has renewed our coverage of this debate."
Barnes: "It has everything to do with Dems harping on this...the press is making this an issue because the Dems are pushing."
Sabato: "When the polls turn down, it does give the OK, the green light to the media to be [more aggresive]...you know that the broad body of people will support you."
Cannon: "The public is looking at this issue. The public are where these Senate Dems who voted in favor of the war resolution in '03.. they were for it and they have reservations. What Kerry and Edwards are doing, the public is doing. We're covering a big issue. The US is wondering how it got into another Vietnam...maybe I shouldn;t say that... but it feels a lot like another Vietnam."
Barnes: "The public didn't dream these worries up on their own."
Sabato: "The public voted for the $87 billion before it voted against the $87 billion."
Why Bush is Losing It
Page: "One of Bush's strengths in 2000 and 2004 was that he seemed more like a regular guy....he risks losing some of that by seeing kind of isolated."
Sabato: "The pres. is on track to virtually double the national debt...a Republican conservative president. That has upset the fiscal conservative wing of the whole party. Second point: scandal. We haven't mentioned Scooter Libby. We haven't mentioned Rove. We haven't mentioned Duke Cunningham..." At what point "is this going to take effect."
The Revolt of Small Government Conservatives
Page: "Good luck to the politicians running against the deficit. You see elites talking about it but I don't think it translates into a voting issue....Scandals lead to the perception...that they are arrogant...it's not that people care about the indiviudals scandals but... a sense that the party's been in power too long, is corrupt and arrogant..."
Barnes: "I have been surprised at the revolt of small government conservatives. They are an important part of the GOP base and to the extent that they're unhappy and are hesitant to show up and vote. And scandals: I think there is great potential for harm for Republicans in the Abramoff scandal.:
Sabato: the economy is improving, but "people think we're on the verge of the great depression."
Change staff? This staff "is tired, exhausted..some are badly scarred by scandals."
Page: "I would argue that the economy is in such great shape, but wages have been flat, health care has not been addressed. You see ... pension plans in trouble.. I think people do not feel secure about their own economy just looking at the ... GDP and inflation [and] employment numbers."
Jordan: "And the flip side of wages being flat is that inflation has been ticking up. And you combine that with what people have been paying to put gas in their car or for health care...there's not much money left to pay for what people think is a good middle class lifestyle."
Cannon: "It would take more than rhetoric. As recently as the Carter and Reagan presidencies, there was a correlation between the economy and [presidential approval rating.] But now, people see that the president doesn't really effect the economy all that much. I think voters are smarter about this than the political writers. .. Bill Clinton, who would also exist in this environment raised the EITC, made it easier for the working poor to get Medicare..but he was doing things...he was the plan with the plan [and would sell it]. He communicated it to people and coupled it with policies. That's typical of Republicans: he tends to think that the best way to improve the economy is not screw it up."
Does Bush Care About Congress?
Sabato recounts a conversation he had with a GOP member of Congress who said Bush was willing to sacrifice one (or more) chamber of Congress to achieve his goals.
Barnes: "I think that assessment is pretty accurate."
Cannon: "The danger for Bush is if Republicans leave him..if rural Republicans..with districts [with lots of national guard members]..if they turn on him, [his numbers could drop.]
What Can Bush Do Now?
Page: "get results...In Iraq." She notes that gas prices have been correlated with his approval rating, but prices have lowered and his numbers have not risen. The economy isn't helping Bush because "people [don't] sense that their personal" fortunes are doing well.
Cannon: "Bush's problem now is that his strength is his weakness. His resoluteness -- more people see it as a weakness than a strength. That stubborn number is a perjorative word and people see in his resoluteness and almost patholoogical unwillingness to admit fault."
Jordan: "He is so removed from people. The President isn't running into ordinary people. He's not connecting with people, especially in light of Katrina...it's almost incumbent upon him to be around people. Get back out among the people. Three years is a very long time to be removed from the people that you're serving"
Barnes: "Recovery is if he can achieve his agenda...his guest worker program...Sam Alito...and [selling the successes] in Iraq."
Page: "Bush's problem is much more perlious than others because the others' dilemma didn't go to the reason they were elected. Americans had elected and re-elected Clinton knowing he had a tendency to fool around....What's happened to Bush goes to the reasons he was elected."
Posted at 02:20 PM
Comments
Wow, the panel is really impressively out of touch with what the economy means to people who aren't upper-income. Guess what? If your income isn't going up as fast as inflation, you're losing ground. Saying the economy is improving or doing great is like saying that because Bill Gates just walked into the room, our average income is way up. All of the recent gains in the economy have gone to business owners and upper-income people. People judge the economy based on their own lives and their likely prospects for the immediate future; anyone who thinks it's because of media influence or people just not understanding how great things are is an idiot.
Redshift | 12.01.05 02:38 PM
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Mr. Cannon repeated a popular MYTH about Pres. Bush the First (and since I can't find Mr. Cannon's email address, I will dispel it here) involving the famous grocery store "scanner" incident. The myth is that Pres. Bush didn't understand how the scanner worked. Well, long time reporter Walter Mears appeared on the C-SPAN
"Newseum" program when he released his book a couple years ago and made it a point to dispel this myth. He stated that Pres. Bush did know how the scanner worked but was, in fact, being told something about how the system could still work if the scanner was broken - this is, in fact, what was amazing to the former President. It is unfortunate this "myth" continues as a tool to ridicule the former President. I don't know if this is in Mr. Mears' book but if the "Newseum's" transcripts are available, the story can be found there. Barring that, perhaps "reporter" Cannon can give Mr. Mears a call for a firsthand account, get the true story and put it in a column.
Ron Brackney | 12.03.05 12:40 AM
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"Wow, the panel is really impressively out of touch with what the economy means to people who aren't upper-income."
Yup. I love when Susan Page says:
I would argue that the economy is in such great shape, but wages have been flat
For what percentage of the electorate does she think GDP growth matters more than real wage growth? 20%? 30%?
For the great majority, wage growth = how the economy is doing.
Petey | 12.05.05 12:25 AM
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USA Today's Susan Page: "the problems Bush faces goes to the heart of why he won independents in both elections.
USA Today (flash site): Kerry won independents 50%-47%.
CNN: Kerry won independents 49%-48%.
SomeCallMeTim | 12.06.05 10:11 AM
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So many Beltway and big media types --� and these are the true 'elites'-- in this country, �may as well be living on another planet. What possible difference does it make to most of us, who can afford to invest very little or nothing, how the stock market is doing? Have any of these people noticed that many sectors of the American job market are dying? Manufacturing, for instance?
Have they noticed that companies and jobs are leaving the country, or like GM and many airlines, simply collapsing? Do they have any idea how hard it is to find a job with decent benefits, like health insurance for your kids? Most of the jobs being created are in low-wage, dead-end areas like retail and service.
I think most people realize in their gut that we are in an era of tremendous upheaval, as the results of globalization take hold, and that the Bush administration has no plans, and no clue, how to deal with that.
drindl | 12.06.05 11:22 AM
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The Stiftung congratulates Barnes for his unwavering commitment to his talking points in defiance of reality and common sense. Barnes is the pinnacle of the seasoned AgitProp operative and should be a model for all younger Acolytes of Freedom yearning to get airtime on Fox News.
Having said that, the Stiftung recommends that Barnes hide is slavish devotion to ideology over reality with more deft. His servitude to our Grand Design is too obvious.
Remember, moderation is terrorism.
Leo Strauss | 12.06.05 05:02 PM
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Leo, I get what you're saying 'cause, you know, I'm reading between the lines. I think you're actually making fun of neoconservatives. But, don't worry, I won't tell anyone.
Keith M Ellis | 12.06.05 06:32 PM
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In response to "drindl," some facts about GM and the auto industry:
1-"Unfortunately, instead of job security, the UAW has seen its hard bargaining produce long-term insecurity for its workers by making their employers less competitive. In turn, the union has lost tens of thousands of jobs in order to temporarily sustain the wages and benefits for the rest." Per Frank Yu, Epoch Times, 12/1/2005.
2-"While GM struggles, America's auto industry as a whole is doing quite well. Last year, workers in U.S. based automobile plants assembled 12 million cars and light trucks compared to an average 10.6 million a year in the decade before the enactment of NAFTA," says Daniel Griswold, Director of the Center for Trade Policy Studies at the Cato Institute. The Federal Reserve Board states "that in the past decade, the total volume of autos and parts made in the U.S. has grown by 40%." The fact is the automobile business in the U.S. is flourishing but in the Southern states in mostly non-unionized but well paying jobs.
Ron Brackney | 12.08.05 12:06 AM
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