January 31, 2006

Maj Leader Candidate React

To the surprise of nobody, Shadegg, Blunt and Boehner all quickly issued statements after the speech praising their party's leader and affirming their support for his agenda.

Actually, Shadegg issued his before the speech was even over. And he was the only one of the three to directly raise the lurking elephant (as it were) in the room: the 2/2 Maj Leader election.

Full statements from all three after the jump:

Shadegg's statement was first to arrive. Sent out at 9:47, the missive highlighted the part of Bush's speech that has become the centerpiece of the AZ'an's campaign:

"In addition to the War on Terror, the President talked about two important issues tonight: the need for reform in our earmark process, and using free-market forces to address ever-growing health care costs."

"My campaign for House Majority Leader is based, in part, on the obvious need to bring sunshine and openness to the earmark process. Powerful members of Congress should not be able to slip provisions into bills in the dead of night that benefit their cronies or supporters. The President recognizes how vitally important this issue is to the country. Earmark reform is a key to Congress fully regaining the confidence of the American people."

"Parts of the health care section of the President's speech were very similar to legislation that Rep. Shadegg has worked on for years. The President spoke about the need for tax credits to encourage Health Savings Accounts, which are similar to the tax provisions in the Patient's Health Care Reform Act (H.R. 2203) which Shadegg introduced in February of last year. In addition, the President talked about the importance of portability in health insurance coverage, a concern which echoes Shadegg's Health Care Choice Act (H.R. 2235), which passed the House Energy and Commerce Committee in July of 2005.

"The rising cost of health care is a threat to the standard of living for millions of families," Shadegg said. "I look forward to working with the President over the coming months to bring free-market reforms to our health care system."

For their part, Blunt and Boehner responded in more general terms and shied away from making connections to the Maj Leader race.

Blunt at 10:12, linking the House GOP's agenda with the President's:

"Once again President Bush spoke clearly and definitively to our nation about a view of our future that relies on the strength and ingenuity of the American people.

"President Bush reminded us that the war on terror has to be fought abroad, so it is not fought in America. We are fighting an enemy who hates what we stand for, but our freedom was hard won, and we cannot retreat from our mission.

"As the president has said, America is the best place in the world to do business, and tonight he laid out ideas for strengthening that competitiveness. From health care to education, he challenged us as a Congress, and as a people, to work to enhance our already competitive workforce.

"House Republicans have an agenda that builds on the president's economic proposals. We will work this year to shore up our already strong economic outlook by making the tax cuts permanent, addressing rising health care costs, and reducing our dependence on foreign sources of energy.

"President Bush has already proven his strength in the face of adversity. Tonight he outlined his plans to demonstrate the same steady leadership as we move forward this year, implementing important domestic policies while maintaining our commitment to our nation's security."

Boehner at 10:16, talking up his signature achievement:

"Tonight, in his State of the Union address, the President reaffirmed his commitment to addressing the concerns of American families. Whether it’s confronting terror abroad or strengthening our competitiveness here at home, he outlined a broad vision of an America that is dynamic, compassionate, and hopeful.

"When the President said tonight that we must continue to lead the world in human talent and creativity, I could not agree more. With an increasingly mobile workforce and a rapidly expanding global marketplace, it is critical for workers to have the education and skills necessary to adapt to new opportunities. Education is the very foundation of our future economic success. The No Child Left Behind Act is continuing to demonstrate success in many urban school districts across the nation. For the first time ever, taxpayers can be assured that they will be able to track the return on their multi-billion dollar annual investment in public education, and schools are being held accountable for the quality of education they are delivering to our nation’s students. While the early results of NCLB have been positive for elementary and middle schools, I have opposed efforts to expand the law into high schools because such an expansion would endanger the current progress being made in implementing NCLB, and I continue to have this concern.

"In order to strengthen our long-term competitiveness, we also must ensure that the federal government gets its financial house in order. That means taking bold steps to rein in runaway entitlement spending, as well as committing to real budget reform. I’m encouraged the President highlighted this issue in his speech, and I hope Congress answers his call for reform. Our children and grandchildren will be placed at a distinct competitive disadvantage in the global marketplace if they are saddled with the debts left behind by our generation.

"The years ahead are colored in shades of hope and opportunity. We can do as the President has suggested, and face our challenges head on with courage and confidence. Or we can sit quietly, and leave our troubles for another generation. As for me, I’m with the President."

Posted 01.31.06 11:03 PM | Comments (4)

Appreciate Ya, Tom

For someone who does not read opinion columns, Pres. Bush sure did sound some Friedmanian tones tonight. Surely the lede in tomorrow's stories, Bush's proposals to wean America's dependence on foreign oil were really the closest thing to news in what ABC's Martha Raddatz termed a "cut and paste" speech comprised of well-known themes and positions.

Teeing up his Advanced Energy Initiative, the Prez declared in his address that "America is addicted to oil, which is often imported from unstable parts of the world..."

Friedman's 1/27 NYT column titled "State of the Union": "On Tuesday President Bush will deliver his State of the Union address and map out priorities for his last three years. The direction in which America needs to go is obvious: toward energy independence."

But, alas, the real SOTU included no "Patriot Tax" of $2 dollars per-gallon of gasoline as it did in Friedmania. Oh, and it also did not end with an announcemnt that VP Cheney was stepping down.

Posted 01.31.06 10:36 PM | Comments (0)

Blunt Still Building

Though they may be taking some hits on the "outside game," give credit to Team Blunt for their efforts on the "inside game."

By inside game we mean the nuts and bolts of securing commitments, nudging fence-sitters and getting those who might have previously been with them in private to go public. In other words, the part of the campaign that Blunt partisans would say actually matters in getting to 117.

After releasing two endorsements late last Friday (Rep. Aderholt (AL) and ex-Approps chair Young (FL)), they announced three more today: Rep's Cubin (WY), McHugh (NY), Wilson (NM). We wonder if the latter two came before of after the candidates spoke to the moderate Tuesday Group.

Not to be outdone, Boehner also sent out notice late today that he had reeled in Rep's Jim Gerlach (PA) and George Radanovich (CA). BTW, Gerlach was a "yes" on the budget in December, but may be reassessing his position. Radanovich did not vote on the measure. Ya think those whip calls tomorrow will be awkward?

Also, do these new commitments -- coming on the first day members are back and getting the pitch mano-a-mano -- portend more public endorsements on election eve tomorrow?

Posted 01.31.06 06:20 PM | Comments (0)

SCOTUS Superlatives

The last 9 months have produced 2 SCOTUS vacancies, 3 SCOTUS nominees, a judicial compromise, a filibuster vote, and an untold number of memories. The judicial drama that has unfold over the last 9 months will undoubtedly be remembered in a class all its own. Through it all, we've seen some pretty impressive performances -- and while no superlatives can do these guys justice, we couldn't help but hand out a few accolades:

Most Athletic: White House-assigned sherpas, Fred Thompson, Dan Coats, and Ed Gillespie, whose pedometers logged more than a few miles as they ushered the nominees from senate office to senate office.

Biggest Loner: Sen. Daniel Inouye, the only member of the "Gang of 14" who voted against Roberts.

Biggest Ladies Man: Harriet Miers' on-again, off-again boyfriend Nathan Hecht

Most Likely to Succeed: Reagan-era lawyers

Teachers Pet: Sen. Arlen Specter, presumably humbled by the near loss of his chairmanship a year earlier, provided Bush with the loyal support he needed at the helm of the Judiciary Cmte.

Teachers Torment: GW Professor Jonathan Turley, who came out early and often against Bush's nominees, calling Miers an
"Amazingly Bad Choice" within minutes of her nomination.

Worst Case of Senioritis: Sen. John McCain, who in helping craft the filibuster compromise enjoyed a brief moment of relevance, but seemed to lose interest and press after the gang's prominence dwindled.

Most Dependable: Ralph Neas. A reporter on a deadline was never disappointed by this go to guy.

Hardest Working: Sunday, as in the day of the week. In the case of all 3 nominees, the use of religion became a way to both reassure and scare various groups. A Threepeat performance by the organizers of "Justice Sunday" insured that this day of rest put in some long hours.

Least Changed: Sen. Ted Kennedy. Just when you thought he'd given up his role as Liberal and Chief to Schumer, Kennedy ended the SCOTUS season with an impassioned call for a filibuster.

Best Hair: Unlike SCOTUS hearings of the past (aheem, Clarence Thomas), hair enjoyed little-to no relevance. No winner.

Most Hyped: SCOTUS Justice Alberto Gonzales

Life of the Party: John Roberts' son, Jack, who made a Copachaba man of the East Room

Posted 01.31.06 05:48 PM | Comments (0)

Early Birds

One of our favorite parts of the SOTU is the reliable presence of a handful of House Dems who spend 364 days of the year lacing into Pres Bush, but spend a good chunk of this day camped out in aisle seats on the House floor so as to shake hands with the Prez and get some nat'l tv face time.

A House spy reports as of 3 p.m. (a full 6 hours before gametime) the following members were lined up in these primo positions. From the back of the chamber forward, the order was: Rep's Kildee (MI), A. Green (TX), Jackson Lee (TX), Tubbs Jones (OH), Jackson (IL).

Our eagle-eyed observer adds that most had purses or briefcases to "mark their territory."

So if you are not there yet, Mr. Engel, this is your warning!

UPDATE: Our eagle-eyed observer is also near-sighted, it turns out. Rep. Becerra (CA) was not in the House chamber earlier today. We regret the error

Posted 01.31.06 04:45 PM | Comments (0)

The Futures Market: Louisiana

LA is a tough state to survey. While most fed officials are GOPers, Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) still retains a firm grip on her seat, and state politics are still dominated by Dems. Further, as one can imagine, LA pols have some pretty weighty issues on their minds these days. That being said, whoever emerges as the leader of the Katrina rebuilding project will be a hero for generations. Whether that's LG Mitch Landrieu (D), Rep. Bobby Jindal (R) (who everyone mentioned as a Gov candidate in '07) or even Ray Nagin (D), someone's going to be Gov for life. [REID WILSON]

The stars we've been watching since '03:

• Sen. David Vitter Statewide Dir. Mike Futrell (R): An ex-State Rep., Futrell's new job "gives him a reason to travel the state," and "I think it sets him up for a statewide run" someday.
• State Rep. Kay Katz (R): The LA GOP's nat'l cmte woman, most consider her to have reached the peak of her political career. "I don't know what she could do past state rep," says one source. Katz is term-limited in '07.
• State Sen. Mike Michot (R): His "name's been floated for various state offices" in '07, but he "definately has a future." He's most likely a candidate for Sec/State, though he's considering other offices as well.
• State Rep. Loulan Pitre (R): "Got the potential to be an up-and-comer," but because he's term-limited in '07 and good friends with his State Sen., he may find himself out in the cold after the election.
• State Rep. Steve Scalise (R): Representing a district hard-hit by Katrina, Scalise has been at "the head of the charge" during the LA legislature's only special session so far this year. He's said to be an all-but-definate candidate for Congress if Jindal runs for Gov.
• State Rep. Karen Carter (D): "It's not uncommon for Karen's name to be tossed about" for higher office, though she may be staying in place until New Orleans settles down. Carter's name has also been mentioned as a possible replacement for Rep. William Jefferson (D) in LA 02.
• State Rep. Don Cazayoux (D): "He's a really good guy," has a "real bright future." Will probably consider a leadership bid in '07.
• State Sen. Lydia Jackson (D): A State Rep when we first set our eyes on her, Jackson is now the "go-to person" for Dems in Shreveport.
• State Rep. Eric LaFleur (D): Chair of House Dem caucus, LaFleur has a "bright future ahead," and has reportedly set his sights on a State Sen. seat in '07.
• LG Mitch Landrieu (D): Just a State Rep. when we met him, Landrieu is now contemplating a bid if Gov. Kathleen Blanco (D) doesn't run in '07, although he's also reportedly been eyeing a challenge to Mayor Nagin. He's said to be "the most charasmatic politician" in LA, and was one of a very few to make a good impression for his Katrina response.
• State Sen. Willie Mount (D): Lost a bid against Rep. Charles Boustany (R) in LA 07. She's ruled out another bid for that seat, but she may try for LG or other statewide office in the future. Complicating matters for her is that she's Gov. Blanco's floor leader, "which is tough these days."
• New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin (D): After Katrina, New Orleans' anti-incumbent sentiment may hurt him, but he sees rebuilding the city as his personal legacy. After the '06 elections, which could be held as early as 4/06 and as late as 9/06, he could either re-emerge as a real star or fade away very quickly.
• State Rep. Gil Pinac (D): Will make a bid for State Sen. in a competitive primary.
• State Rep. Gary Smith (D): While he's "taken a beating" over post-Katrina FEMA contracts given to his family company, Smith may still be a candidate for State Sen. in '07.
• State Rep. Taylor Townsend (D): While Townsend is "constantly courted" by the DCCC to run in LA 04 against Rep. Jim McCrery (R), he "could be" Gov "someday."

And the stars to watch in the future:

• State Rep. Hunter Green (R): Elected to Futrell's Baton Rouge-based seat in a special election in '05. "He can raise some money." After just one session, people are already turning to him to help guide legislation, and his role may lead him to run for leadership in '07.
• State Sen. Julie Quinn (R): The ex-school board member beat a "well-known" state rep in a special election in '05 by self-funding the race. An owner of several hotels in LA, she'll "be a major player for years to come."
• State Sen. Jay Dardenne (R): While he's served in the legislature for a number of years, he "will be a serious threat to win statewide in" '07.
• State Sen. Walter Boasso (R): After Hurricane Katrina, Boasso took the lead in consolidating levee boards and has earned good media throughout the state for his work. A successful businessman in the private sector, Boasso "can self-fund any seat he chooses to run for."
• Shaw Group CEO Jim Bernhard (D): The head of one of two Fortune 500 companies based in LA and the former chair of the State Party thought about a bid for Sen in '04, has been "steadily getting more and more involved in politics." Some are speculating he may hold future ambitions.
• State Rep. Jolila Jefferson (D): The daughter of Rep. Jefferson, she wants to run for Congress, but her name may be tainted. As a freshman State Rep., she hasn't assumed any powerful positions yet, and "a lot of her future depends on how her dad comes out" of his recent legal troubles.
• Baton Rouge Mayor Kip Holden (D): The first black mayor of the city, Holden knocked of a GOP incumbent in an area Bush carried easily. "If he" had ambitions, "that would be a good thing."
• Atty Marjorie McKeithen (D): The granddaughter of ex-Gov. John McKeithen (D) and daughter of Sec/State Fox McKeithen, who passed away in '05, Marjorie almost knocked off Rep. Richard Baker (R) in LA 06 in '98. "She's somebody that's always on the" Dem "radar as a potential winner," and she may run to replace her father in the Sec/State's office.

Posted 01.31.06 04:37 PM | Comments (1)

Tunnel Vision

In a recent Basswood Research (R) poll memo, three "key findings" of the poll are highlighted. First, swing voters (i.e. those "likely to determine which party controls Congress next year") have a negative view of current leadership and are favoring Dems. Second, "ethical scandals are taking a toll" of the perception of GOPers in swing districts and are closely associated with the party. And finally, "voters in these swing districts have a clear and strong preference for a new Republican Majority Leader who is not perceived as tainted by the Washington lobbyist community." This is true, but what has to be kept in mind when reading this is that it is all in the question wording, and of course the order. It has already been established that ethics is a sore spot for GOPers so of course someone with no ethical lapses is an attractive candidate. Read these results as one would an informed ballot, keeping in mind that any of the three candidates could be described in a different light to alter the results dramatically.

Posted 01.31.06 01:45 PM | Comments (0)

Just Asking...

Where will Rep. DeLay sit tonight. Rep. Ney? And what's the over-under on whether the pool director will cut to either of them when (and if) Bush talks about honesty in goverment?

Posted 01.31.06 10:23 AM | Comments (2)

The Budget Reconciliation Vote

This morning's CongressDailyAM reports that the House leadership remains confident that its signature budget paring bill will pass -- even as GOPers begin to defect.

In Dec., the House passed its version of the conference report by 212-206. Nine GOPers voted no, and ten didn't vote. As National Journal's Richard Cohen points out, the loss/Senatorial promotion of Bob Menendez for Dems gives House leaders a bit more padding for possible defections.

Because the Senate tinkered with the bill, the House has to vote again. In the intervening month and a half, labor unions have worked to peel off centrist GOPers from the NE and Midwest, blanketing their districts with television advertisements.

Labor argues that the cuts to Medicare in the bill would saddle low-income seniors with higher co-pays. Other liberal groups say the bill would hurt families on welfare. NE GOPers like Rep. Charlie Bass (R-NH)worry about heating oil help for poorer families.

The vote is scheduled for Wednesday, the day before the GOP conference elects a new majority leader.

Rep. Rob Simmons(R-CT) has already announced his intention to switch from yes to no. Rep. Walter Jones (R-NC), who didn't vote the first time, will vote "no" on Wednesday, according to Congressional Quarterly.

Others on the fence, according to Dem sources, GOP sources and published reports: Reps. Boehlert, Sweeney, LoBiondo, Fitzpatrick, Shays, Gerlach and Ramstad.

Even if all those GOPers vote no -- opponents would need a few more votes in order to defeat the bill.

Still, we're bound to hear moderate GOPers grumbling about having to walk the plank (after a month of being pelted back in their CDs) for what amounts to some very small tweaks in the language.

Also: a narrowly-passed bill might trigger doubts among Republicans in the conference whether Maj. Whip. Rep. Roy Blunt has enough clout with members to ascend to the majority leader's position.

And consider this: what happens if, as is typical, the arm-twisting that inevitably accompanies a close vote spills over (even psychologically) into the next day. Will members be eager to promote Blunt? Eager to throw all the bums out? [JONATHAN MARTIN AND MARC AMBINDER]

Posted 01.31.06 09:01 AM | Comments (0)

January 30, 2006

No Roberts Rhyme Nor Reason

By a vote of 72-25 the Senate shot down a filibuster attempt today on Sam Alito's SCOTUS nomination. All of the Senates GOPers voted against the filibuster. 24 Dems and Sen. Jim Jeffords
(I-VT) voted for a filibuster, while 19 Dems voted against. This 24-19 Dem split provided some variation on the catch 22 of the John Roberts days. Here's a breakdown:

-- Dems who voted against Roberts and against the filibuster include HI Sens. Daniel Akaka and Daniel Inouye, and Sen. Maria Cantwell (WA).

-- Dems who voted for Roberts and for the filibuster include Sens. Chris Dodd (CT), Russ Feingold (WI), Pat Leahy (VT), Carl Levin (MI), Patty Murray (WA), and Ron Wyden (OR).

-- Sen. Tom Harkin (IA), who voted against Roberts, did not vote on the filibuster attempt. [NORA McALVANAH]

Posted 01.30.06 07:18 PM | Comments (0)

This Week's Cover Girl -- Sen. John Kerry

As cloture was invoked on Sam Alito's nomination today -- it was 72 to 25 -- there's a case to be made that some Dems should whisper their thanks to Sen.John Kerry.

Consider: Sen. Min Leader Harry Reid reportedly cautioned against Kerry's filibuster push because he was worried about the maneuver's unintended impact on Dems in GOP-leaning states. But perhaps Reid wasn't thinking outside that unintended consequences box of his, because Kerry's 11th hour push actually provided the Mark Pryor's of the world with the perfect cover. For Pryor, being able to announce that he's against Alito, but not beholden to liberal interest groups in the same breath (aka against the filibuster) provided him with the ultimate redeemable wherever, no proof of purchase necessary, Get Out of Jail Free card.

The Red state Dems who will endorse Alito now have a "Yes, but I didn't filibuster" to placate their constituents with in '06. And nothing says the perfect moderate man's out like Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R-RI) embracing the tactic. After all, Chafee got to have the best of both worlds today, announcing he opposed both Alito and the Dems' efforts at a filibuster. Nicely executed.

Just remember to tell Sens. Mark Pryor (D-AR) , Tim Johnson (D-SD), Bill Nelson (D-FL), and Ken Salazar (D-CO) that they should address their thank you cards to John Kerry....that's K-e-r-....[NORA MCALVANAH]

Posted 01.30.06 05:46 PM | Comments (3)

Brownback: I Didn't Call Gays "Fruits"

Sen. Sam Brownback (R-KS) has clarified what Rolling Stone magazine, in a critical profile of the socially conservative Senator, suggested was an anti-gay smear.

Brownback, in describing the impact of gay marriage in Sweden, said of the effects, "You'll know 'em by their fruits." Wrote Rolling Stone's Jeff Sharlett: "He pauses, and an awkward silence fills the room. He was citing scripture -- Matthew 7:16 -- but he just called gay Swedes 'fruits.'"

Well -- Brownback's office, under fire from gay rights groups, slipped out a clarifying statement today:

"When quoting Matthew 7:16, 'Ye shall know them by their fruits'; I was in no way referring to sexual orientation."

"While this biblical passage was pertinent to our overall conversation about faith and deeds, it apparently led the writer to believe I was making a joke; I was not and would never do so with such a personal and sensitive issue."

BTW: Brownback's office considers the article a hit piece.

On Friday, Human Rights Campaign president Joe Solomnese wrote to Brownback: "In an apparent attempt to use a Biblical passage to derogatorily jab at gays and lesbians, you have stepped well over the line of decorum and common decency."

He urged an apology. [MARC AMBINDER]

Posted 01.30.06 05:22 PM | Comments (1)

Michigan Dems Ask '08ers To Avoid NH/IA Pledges...Again

As the DNC nomination commissions' recs wend their way to the party's rules and bylaws committee, Michigan Democrats, led by DNC member Debbie Dingell and Sen. Carl Levin, have written letters to potential '08 candidates urging them to avoid making public pledges of support for IA and NH's "privileged status."

The letter is similar to one Dingell and Levin released as the calendar commission began its work in '05. And it reflects the nervousness that a high-profile "intervention" from a presidential candidate could put the kibosh on the commission's proposals.

Virtually all of the potential pres. hopefuls have made known publicly their preference to safeguard IA and NH's position. (Depending on which DNC member is relating the scuttlebutt, some of the potential candidates have also privately expressed support for the direction the commission's proposals take.) [MARC AMBINDER]

From the letter: "Democratic presidential candidates are already beginning to travel around the country, particularly in Iowa and New Hampshire. We believe it is important that the critical issues which will be at the forefront of the election in 2008 be part of the dialogue now across states that represent a spectrum of regional and population diversity."

"We know that you have been asked to make committments to maintain the current privileged position of Iowa and New Hampshire. We urge you not to make any committment that favors one state at the expense of others, and instead await the Rules Committee consideration of the recommendations of the Commission on Presidential Nomination Timing and Scheduling.

Posted 01.30.06 04:57 PM | Comments (1)

DNC Notes

Two DNC items this afternoon.

1. In the wake of this morning's Roll Call story featuring anoynmous senior Dems blasting Howard Dean and co. for only netting $5M this year -- the DNC says it's raised $25K through the net, unsolicited.

2. The DNC is boiling mad over this rendition of the RNC's house party concept. Oh, and it's being held at a gay bar. BTW: we're not entirely sure this is a legit RNC party.

Posted 01.30.06 04:50 PM | Comments (1)

Dowd: Whooaaah There, Expectations

The Republican National Committee is distributing a memo from Bush '04 strategist/RNC senior adviser Matthew Dowd cautioning against any super-high expectations for a post-SOTU bounce.

(Is he lowering expectations? Setting them realistically??

Dowd counsels Bush fans to be "mindful" of the chimeric post-SOTU bounce storyline.

Dowd: "While all of us would welcome increased public approval, the history (both recent and the last 50 years) of poll movement around this event shows quite a different story."

He continues: "In looking at poll movement before and after State of the Union addresses, the average over the last fifty years is actually a slight drop (-0.2%). President Bush's average change is also a drop (-0.4%). Only one of his SOTU addresses showed positive movement (2005), which is likely attributed to the intervening events of the 2005 Inaugural and January 2005 Iraqi elections. Even the "Great Communicator" President Ronald Reagan's average poll movement after State of the Union addresses was negative (-2.6%), and in fact Reagan only had one SOTU speech with positive poll movement!" [MARC AMBINDER]

Posted 01.30.06 04:28 PM | Comments (0)

The Futures Market: Kentucky

A red state, through and through. Right? Well, not really. After a rocky first term, many politicos in KY don't think Gov. Ernie Fletcher (R) will run for re-election. If he does, he's toast -- if not in the primary, then in the general. GOPers have a strong bench, especially in KY 03, so when Rep. Anne Northrup (R) retires, the NRCC will have a good shot at staving off the DCCC, which has salavated over that seat for a long time. Dems have candidates who seem to need a little extra encouragement to jump into the races that are supposed to be theirs to lose, but if they do, the state might become a little more even across the board. [REID WILSON]

The stars we've been watching since '03:

Louisville Metro Councilmember Ellen Call (R): "I think she's got the talent" to move up. "Very politically savvy" runs a side business consulting for judicial candidates. May end up running for Rep. Northrup's (R) KY 03 seat when she retires.

Lobbyist/atty Scott Crosby (R): A former Lexington-Fayette City Councilmember, after losing a mayoral bid, Crosby "dropped off the political scene."

Ag Commiss. Richie Farmer (R): An ex-UK basketball star, several sources said that any ambitions Farmer harbors may have to wait until he repairs his reputation after a rough first term. Some speculate that he may not run for re-election.

Sec/State Trey Grayson (R): First elected in '03, Grayson is "absolutely" on the list of up-and-coming Kentuckians. He's a "huge star," "one of the best young politicians in the state," and has "never really stopped campaigning." Many think he could run for Gov in the future.

State Sen. Brett Guthrie (R): Running for re-election, but "others make the list before him." Would be a frontrunner for Rep. Ron Lewis' (R) KY 02 seat when he retires.

State Sen. Damon Thayer (R): The former Vice Chair of the KY GOP, "without a doubt" a rising star. In his freshman term, he already chairs the State and Local Gov't Cmte and has taken control of the counties he represents.

Treas. Jonathon Miller (D): After two terms as the popular state treasurer, some think Miller may run for Gov or Mayor of Lexington. However, others believe he'll serve in some capacity with the pres. bid of Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN), and that he's "not interested in playing musical chairs" with statewide offices.

Jefferson Co./Lexington Councilmember David Tandy (D): Recently elected Vice Chair of the council's maj caucus, "a big stride up" the ladder. He also serves as the KY Dem Treasurer.

State Rep. Tommy Thompson (D): After running for LG on a losing primary ticket in '03, he's "done a good job as a legislator," but that may be where his career ends.

State Rep. Susan Westrom (D): After an unsuccessful stint as state Dem chair when she "wilted under the spotlight," her star is "fading." However, she remains popular in her slightly GOP district.

And the stars to watch in the future:

State Rep. Jim Decesare (R): The former TV reporter knocked off the incumbent House Ag Cmte chair, and though he will be targeted by Dems this year, Decesare may have a bright future in the party.

Scott Jennings (R): The deputy WH Political Dir. at just 28 years old. Whether he runs for Congressional or Statewide office, he's got a solid future in KY politics. He's "at the top of my list."

State Rep. Steven Rudy (R): The 27-year-old beat an incumbent in a district in which Dems held a better than 7-1 advantage. He owns a feed supply company in a very rural district.

Metro Councilman Kelly Downard (R): The former City Council pres. is now running for mayor of Louisville, and while it's "going to be an uphill battle" against a popular Dem incumbent, he's put together a good race.

Louisville Metro Councilmember Julie Rocky (R): The ex-Northrup staffer may run for Northrup's seat when she retires.

AG Greg Stumbo (D): After moving up from State Rep, Stumbo headed the investigation into Gov. Ernie Fletcher's (R) hiring practices. "Ernie Fletcher's political career ended with this investigation," and Stumbo "has given" Dems "a chance to elect a" Gov. While Fletcher's staff accuses Stumbo of having designs on the Gov mansion, Dem insiders don't believe he'll make a run in '07.

State Rep. Mike Weaver (D): The Vietnam vet is running against Rep. Ron Lewis (R) in KY 02 and is touted by Dems throughout the state as having a good chance of knocking off the incumbent.

Kenton Co. Dem Chair Kathy Groob (D): The ex-GOPer narrowly lost a State Sen race in '04. She's "an articulate spokesperson and has a future in our party."

Henderson Co. Judge Sandy Lee Watkins (D): A four-term judge and "an incredible manager of county" gov't. He's considered a leader among county officials statewide and will be "a contender" for statewide office in the future.

Atty Mickey McGuire (D): General Counsel of the KY Dems. Some Dems are trying to entice him into a Court of Appeals race in '06, and if he makes the run, he could have a future in higher office.

Posted 01.30.06 04:15 PM | Comments (0)

The Venerable HOB

Per an email just sent out by Conference chair Deborah Pryce (R-OH), the Maj Leader election will take place at 1 p.m. on Thursday.

The balloting will not take place in the Capitol, though. Instead, House GOPers will use the larger (more sound-proof?) Cannon Caucus room on the third floor of the original House Office Building.

Posted 01.30.06 03:33 PM | Comments (0)

Report: Menendez To Vote No

Sen. Bob Menendez plans to vote against the confirmation of Judge Sam Alito, PoliticsNJ.com reports.

Posted 01.30.06 01:34 PM | Comments (0)

Pro Patriot Act Ad Airs During "24"

The Coalition for Security, Liberty and the Law tonight plans to broadcast an ad defending the Patriot Act during tonight's edition of "24" on Fox. We've yet to figure out which markets it will air in.

The ad features Debra Burlingame, the sister of American Airlines Flight 77 captain Chic Burlingame.

Burlingame speaks directly to camera and questions Senators who think they can "safely weaken" the Patriot Act.

(One small irony: the "President" on "24" is portrayed as a vacillating reed of a man who ought not be trusted with extraordinary powers. And a key aide is working with the enemy.)

Posted 01.30.06 01:01 PM | Comments (5)

A Lucas Sequel

Ex-Rep. Ken Lucas (D) is announcing today that he’s making a bid to reclaim his old KY 04 House seat. Lucas, who retired in ’04, saw his seat switch to the GOP last cycle, when Rep. Geoff Davis defeated Clooney dad Nick Clooney 54%-44%. But Lucas is hoping for results similar to '02, when he defeated Davis by 3 points in what was his final campaign.

In his press release, Lucas said: "In 2004, I had planned to retire from elected public service. But, over the last year, I've grown concerned about the widespread public corruption news coming from Congress and the increased partisanship in the U.S. House of Representatives. I'm disappointed that Geoff Davis has done nothing to separate himself from many of the figures involved in those scandals and that he has voted almost exclusively with his national party’s congressional leadership at the expensive of bipartisan cooperation and good will." [JOSH KRAUSHAAR]

Posted 01.30.06 10:17 AM | Comments (1)

UPDATE: VIlsack's PAC Takes In 1.6M, Spends 496K

Heartland PAC, chaired by IA Gov. Tom Vilsack, raised more than $1.6M in '06, spending a third of what was raised on contributions, travel, donor prospecting and staff, according to disbursements filed with the IRS.

Heartland is not a federal PAC; it solicits money only for races within states and can accept individual donations of any size.

A $100K check was written by Lewis Cullman, a New York venture capitalist and major party fundraiser.

The PAC ended the year with more than 1M CoH.

According to Politicalmoneyline.com, Heartland PAC "paid Blue State Digital more than $67,000 for website work. They paid Dewey Square Group almost $125,000 for consulting, rent, travel, insurance and other operating expenses. They have also contributed a total of $65,000 to party committees in Iowa, Kansas and New Jersey."

Posted 01.30.06 09:57 AM | Comments (0)

Frist's VolPAC Raises $3.5M In '05

Sen. Maj. Leader Bill Frist's Volunteer PAC raised $3.5 million in 2005, soaking in more than 50K separate contributions.

The PAC also spent a significant amount of money, ending the year with about $800K.

PAC sources said the Frist team spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on small-donor prospecting and on the PAC's website, which includes an updated blog and extensive resources for GOPers seeking to help their party in the midterms. As Maj. Leader, Frist is a hot ticket wherever he travels.

According to a Frist adviser, the average donation in '06 was $70. That, combined with the large amount of new donors, suggests that Frist broadened his financial and political base during the second six months of '05.

When he stepped down as NRSC chair at the end of the '02 cycle, Frist brought with him a top-notch fundraising team. That team, which includes ex-NRSC finance dir. Linus Catignani, ex-NRSC counsel Alex Vogel, Linda Bond and Chip Saltzman, are clearing a path for Frist to make a presidential bid, although aides insist that Frist has yet to decide whether he will run.

Posted 01.30.06 09:52 AM | Comments (4)

Chafee To Vote No-Lito

One of themost anticipated vote announcements on Sam Alito is from liberal GOP Sen. Lincoln Chafee, who is facing an incredibly tough primary fight in RI SEN. Well, later this morning, Chafee will announce he's voting against Alito's confirmation. While this will make for big news and lots of crowing for Chafee's conservative GOP primary foe, Steve Laffey, it actually makes sense.

Voting for Alito would not have bought Chafee any new conservative friends but may have cost him some of his indie/left-leaning supporters, including NARAL, which would have made the general that much tougher. One thing even critics of Chafee can say is that his opposition to Alito is actually a consistent position on judicial nominations.

Posted 01.30.06 09:23 AM | Comments (3)

The CW

No, not that CW.

We're talking about the conventional wisdom in political Washington that Rep's Shadegg and Boehner have accrued enough support between them to force a second ballot in next week's Maj Leader race. Indeed, just about the only people you talk to who don't believe the race will reach a runoff are those toiling in a certain well-appointed leadership office upstairs in the Capitol.

Has the political "CW" been wrong before? Too many times to recall. But for a number of reasons (among them Shadegg's rock star support in the conservative blogosphere and the absence of the sort of MSM scrutiny which Boehner and Blunt were subject to at the race's outset) the momentum that had carried Blunt's candidacy to the brink of inevitability a few weeks ago has hit a wall.

To be fair to Team Blunt, the wall they've hit is cushioned with the public endorsement of some 94 colleagues (more on that later). However, if Blunt's claims of having more than the needed 117 commitments to wrap up the contest on the first vote are proven untrue this week, January 13th will prove to be the turning point in the race.

Having made his pitch to a conference call of the TX GOP's House delegation the previous night, Blunt began the day on a high note, adding seven more endorsements from Lone Star State GOP'ers, including that of powerful Energy & Commerce Cmte chair Joe Barton. With these new commitments in hand, Blunt had 78 public endorsements to Boehner's 37. More than doubling their rival, Blunt's camp was riding high. Embracing the role of the frontrunner, Blunt spokesperson Jessica Boulanger, in one of her daily dispatches to ABC's "The Note," offered that it was "easy for Team Blunt to stay positive" with "100+ commitments -- 78 public."

But later that morning, Shadegg ended days of wooing and hinting by issuing a release announcing his entry in the race. A week later, on January 20th, Blunt had added just eight more public commitments. Shadegg was the hero of conservative bloggers, ed boards and pundits. The race was frozen in place.

Whether this Friday the 13th will haunt Blunt for years to come is unknown until Thursday. What is known is that he and his allies can't get this race over soon enough. In football terms, (tis the season) Blunt has gone to a "prevent defense," allowing Boehner and Shadegg to make incremental gains with endorsements, media appearances and blog chats, but all with the padding of a near-30 vote lead on the combined total of his rivals. The two underdogs, Blunt's camp may tell you, are nowhere near the end zone.

But unlike on the gridiron, leadership races are not won by simply who has more points -- or supporters. For all of Team Blunt's bravado about what Boulanger terms its "117+ public and private supporters," the hard fact remains that they are 23 public endorsements short of the magic number. And of their 94 public backers, how many are committed to the MO'ian beyond the first ballot?

Asked this question, a source close to Blunt noted the Whip's vote-counting credentials and promised that one could "bank on" Blunt being "prepared for whatever scenario may or may not develop, including a second ballot."

As to whether Blunt had gone back and made an additional round of calls to extract second ballot support promises, the source would only say that Blunt "has done the necessary work to ensure his supporters are there, as well as additional supporters who were previously committed to one of the other two camps."

But neutral observers and individuals sympathetic to Bohener and Shadegg say that in the complicated world of leadership races, endorsements are good for only one go around on the carousel. And a source familiar with the Shadegg campaign notes that it is "tricky for Blunt to whip a second ballot given his" public claims of having already reached 117. Asked outright if Shadegg has asked for and received promises of second ballot support from Blunt and Boehner backers, this source offered an unequivocal "yes."

But will the ole CW of a second ballot even prove true? Blunt's camp reiterates their confidence in having the votes to win on the first shot. However, a neutral observer on the Hill following the race closely tells The Hotline that Boehner's whip team has Boehner and Blunt at parity in total support, with each counting on roughly 105 members and the other 22 being either pro-Shadegg or truly undecided. However, a pro-Boehner source downplays their support to somewhere in the 90s, puts Blunt at about 105 and gives Shadegg 25-30 votes. The theory being, per this source and others, that Shadegg's votes swing to Boehner on a second ballot.

Whatever the case, there is one thing for certain. As longtime House watcher Richard Cohen put it in this week's National Journal, there is some "fibbing and exaggerated claims going on."

Posted 01.30.06 07:31 AM | Comments (0)

January 28, 2006

What A Difference A Year Makes

The Hotline's Chuck Todd picks five race made more contentious by the year's events -- and five incumbents or party-held seats made even safer.

Posted 01.28.06 12:16 PM | Comments (0)

HRC Takes Kerry's Cover

Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton will vote yes on a filibuster (no to cloture) and no on Alito.

Posted 01.28.06 12:14 PM | Comments (0)

January 27, 2006

Maybe Republicans Ought To Be Pro-Filibuster

Sending a release with a dateline of "Caracas, Venezuela," anti-Iraq war activist Cindy Sheehan vowed to challenge CA Sen. Dianne Feinstein in '06 if she didn't participate in the Alito filibuster. (Note: Sheehan's flak spelled Sen. Feinstein's first name, "Diane.") More from the release, that notes DiFi is voting No-lito but also No-buster:

I'm appalled that Diane Feinstein wouldn't recognize how dangerous Alito's nomination is to upholding the values of our constitution and restricting the usurpation of presidential powers, for which I've already paid the ultimate price."

Posted 01.27.06 05:02 PM | Comments (4)

Sen. Sessions, McCain Is Leading The Delegation

Yes, yes, Kerry was at Davos. Effete, snow-skiing filibustering liberal. Ha Ha. Funny. Original, too!

Well -- so were Sens. Sununu and Chambliss and at least a half dozen Bush administration officials, along with delegation leader Sen. John McCain.

Take it away, Jeff Sessions, who said on the floor of the Senate today that folks attending Davos "ought to spend more time trying to get the oil prices and gasoline prices down."

Maybe...

Posted 01.27.06 03:51 PM | Comments (3)

DNC Reponds To RNC Ad Buy

The Democratic National Committee is slapping back at Republicans, who poked Min. Leader Harry Reid (D) with a critical TV ad in his home state.

The RNC-produced ad accuses Reid of working to gut the Patriot Act, which the ad credits with savings lives and preventing terrorist attacks.

The Dem ad takes on President Bush directly. It juxtaposes Bush's remarks about tax cuts and the economy with "the reality" -- things aren't so rosy, according to Dems. The tagline: American Deserves The Truth.

The Dems will also air the ad in Nashville, where Bush has a Wednesday visit planned, so they say it's not a "response ad," per se.

Alas, if On Call weren't a family publication, we could easily come up with a metaphor that evokes a less flattering version of this.

Posted 01.27.06 02:47 PM | Comments (1)

Worlds Colliding

This probably means very little in the grand scheme of things, but Shadegg has won the endorsement of Steve Laffey. Yeah, that Steve Laffey

Posted 01.27.06 02:14 PM | Comments (0)

Dean Formally Endorses DNC Nomination Calendar Changes

In a letter sent last night to the two co-chairs of the DNC's rules of bylaws cmte, DNC chairman Howard Dean for the first time formally endorsed proposed changes to the party's nomination calendar.

Dean tells committee chairs Alexis Herman and Jim Roosevelt that the commission "carried out its work in a thoughtful and deliberate manner, soliciting and listening to a broad range of opinions about the process."

"I am pleased that the Commission has made recommendations that seek to broaden participation and increase diversity in the early stages of the presidential nominating process. Indeed, I am mindful that over the years that Party has instituted reforms at making our nomination process fairer, more representative and more effective for both our presidential candidates and the voters."

Dean says the recommendations are "positive step" in that direction.

In December, after months of contentious debate, the commission recommended adding at least one caucus between IA and NH and at least one after -- and urged the rules and bylaws committee to add incentives for states to hold their delegate selection contests later in the year. The commission also voted to formally recognize IA and NH's first-in-the-nation positions on the schedule.

New Hampshire Democrats protested, saying the proposal to add another delegate event before its primary did little to enhance diversity and a whole lot to punish civically-minded NH voters. NH Dems also contend that the proposed changes would further front-load the calendar, potentially producing a nominee without the benefit of extensive vetting by voters.

However, a majority of commission members were convinced by arguments suggesting that adding as few as two new caucuses or primaries could add both regional and ethnic diversity to the pool of base voters who tend to winnow the early primary field. Also, DNCers with long-standing resentment against NH and IA found a venue to exercise their frustration.

Dean's endorsement signals that he was not swayed by NH's vociferous objections.

The rules and bylaws committee meets early this spring to discuss the proposal. The full DNC membership has the final say in April. If the DNC adds an additional caucus before NH, NH's Sec/State has promised to act to make sure NH's status is maintained. And NH's legislature is preparing to give him that authority. [MARC AMBINDER]

Posted 01.27.06 01:56 PM | Comments (0)

The Futures Market: Kansas

As with HI, WY and other states with dominant parties nonetheless shut out of the Gov mansion, KS GOPers have found themselves continually stymied when searching for a challenger to Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (D) this year. However, some say that Sebelius' popularity is to the detriment of the KS Dem bench, and while several of our rising stars have their eyes on statewide office, they may find themselves seriously underperforming one of the most popular Govs in the country. Also of note, while IA featured a former rising star who lost out thanks to a cow's nose-print, KS offers up the first ex-star who's now in prison. [REID WILSON]

The stars we've been watching since '03:

State Rep. Rob Boyer (R): A "2nd tier-3rd tier borderline" Rep., "I wouldn't call him a rising star."

Atty/lobbyist Natalie Haag (R): Sister of State Treas. Lynn Jenkins, not currently thought of as a potential candidate.

State Sen. Tim Huelskamp (R): The leading right-winger in the Senate. "Even the right thinks he's too far right." Interested in running for Rep. Jerry Moran's KS 01 seat, but none of the GOPers we talked to believe he'll make it out of a primary.

State Rep. Bill Kassenbaum (R): The son of ex-Sen. Nancy Kassenbaum (R), Bill lost in the primary '04. "He's toast."

DoJ anti-terrorism expert Kris Kobach (R): After failed bids for State Sen and Congress, "I think he's done." He did contemplate a Gov bid, but opted out early in '05. He's "a talented guy" who would "make a hell of a federal judge."

Ex-KS GOP Exec. Dir. Scott Poor: While he was Exec. Dir., the 4th CD GOPers sued the KS GOP over voter registration issues, saddling the party with $40K in legal bills. "He's gone."

Sen. Maj. Leader Derek Schmidt (R): "Very ambitious," he'll "tread water" and wait for seats to open up, but will eventually take a shot at higher office. He's "been good about being patient." An ex-Nancy Kassenbaum aide, "I'd be very surprised if he wasn't a strong candidate" in '10.

'02 KS 03 nominee/'04 candidate Adam Taff (R): Off to prison after being convicted of fraud for using campaign funds to secure a mortgage on his house. Not considered a future contender.

Sebelius legis. services dir. Jeremy Anderson (D): Anderson survived a recent staff shakeup in the Gov's office, and several Dems mentioned that his running for office "wouldn't surprise me."

Wichita City Councilmember Carl Brewer (D): A member of the city council since '01 and a captain in the KS Nat'l Guard, Brewer was said to be eyeing a state Sen seat. His career has yet to take off as anticipated.

State Rep. Paul Davis (D): He's "got a bright future" and "has potential for higher office down the road."

State Sen. Christine Downey (D): Downey retired from the legislature and has no immediate designs on returning to public life.

State Sen. Janis Lee (D): The assistant Dem leader in the State Sen., that's "probably where she's going to be for the forseeable future."

State Rep. Josh Svaty (D): "He gets the prize just for hanging on out there" in a heavily GOP district. The makeup of his CD makes a move to DC unlikely.

State Rep. Rick Rehorn (D): "His star's dimmed a bit" after losing a primary for Kansas City Mayor by a "healthy" margin.

Crawford County Clerk R.J. Wilson (D): A State Rep. when we first met him, Wilson's promotion shows he's "definately on the upward track." Some Dems think he'd do well to run for Sec/State somewhere down the road.

And the stars to watch in the future:

State Rep. Scott Schwab (R): Running an uphill campaign in KS 03 against Rep. Dennis Moore, (D) but "he's full of potential." Several think he may drop out of the race and run for higher office down the road.

State Rep. Kevin Yoder (R): "A moderate who keeps his head down," but "I think he's a name that you'll see." He's "a sharp guy," though he may lack some TV abilities.

State Sen. Jim Barnett (R): A doctor, Barnett is running for Gov, and while he faces a tough race against Sebelius, but "he's going to improve his standing through this." May have a future after the race.

Kansas City Mayor Joe Reardon (D): The son of an ex-Mayor, Reardon won "surprisingly easy" victories in the primary and general.

Johnson Co. DA Paul Morrison (D): A "skilled prosecutor" and pro-choice Catholic, Morrison was elected as a GOPer before he switched to the Dem party. He's now running for AG against incumbent Phil Kline (R), setting up "probably the marquee race this year."

Douglas County DA Charles Branson (D): "Definate potential down the road" for AG after defeating an incumbent GOPer for his present position.

State Rep. Deliah Garcia (D): Her family owns a restaurant chain in Wichita, and "when we talk about injecting the party with some youth and building a bench," she's the first name on the list.

Sebelius CoS Troy Findley: The former State Rep "came out on top" after a recent staff shakeup. He's seen as one of the leaders of the party.

Posted 01.27.06 10:54 AM | Comments (0)

McCain's PAC Raises $2.3 In '05

Sen. John McCain's Straight Talk America will report to the FEC that it raised about $2.3M during the last three months of '05.

It ended the year with $1.2M CoH -- a considerable burn rate for a PAC that re-opened in September.

Posted 01.27.06 10:33 AM | Comments (0)

Bayh: $9M+ In His Campaign Account

Sen. Evan Bayh ended '05 with a whopping $9.5M in his Senate campaign account, according to reports Bayh will file with the FEC.

Campaign account money can be directly transferred into a presidential exploratory account; only a fraction of a Leadership PAC's cash is fungible.

In typical '08 hopeful fashion, Bayh is using his campaign account to accumulate a bankroll for a potential presidential race and is using his PAC to earn chits with Dems across the country.

Bayh's PAC contributed the maximum to NH Gov. John Lynch and NJ Gov. Jon Corzine. It gave $15k to the DSCC, 10K to the NH Dem party, money to the Blackhawk Co. Dem Party in IA and $25K to home-state Dems in Indiana's house. Sens. Bill Nelson and Robert Byrd recieved donations, as did candidates Harold Ford (TN) and Claire McCaskill (MO). House candidate Dave Loebsack recieved $1K from the PAC as did several others. Bayh also contributed to several IA legislative campaigns.

For the year, the Senate account took in more than 3M -- including more than $1.7M in the final quarter. The PAC, which has more than $800K on hand, raised more than $1.5M for the year.

Bayh's chief fundraiser is Nancy Jacobson. His senior advisers include Anita Dunn and Dan Pfeiffer, along with pollster Paul Maslin and ex-Gore CoS Ron Klain. [MARC AMBINDER]

Posted 01.27.06 10:01 AM | Comments (0)

January 26, 2006

Redistricting Coming To FL?

A small sign of the times, perhaps. But a non-profit that's pushing a revamp of Florida's remap process says they have well more than 900K signatures and expect the SoS to certify their initiative to the 11/06 ballot.

The initiative (actually, three of them) would create an independent redistricting commission.

FL's district lines are among the nation's most convoluted and incumbents enjoy a decided advantage over would-be opponents.

The Committee for Fair Elections is sponsoring the ballot petition drive. The group says they're bipartisan, although most of its coalition members are center-left, including Common Cause and the League of Women Voters, not to mention very prominent Dems, including ex-Rep. Carrie Meek and ex-Sen. Bob Graham. GOPers include ex-comptroller Bob Milligan and Bush '41 fundraiser/lawyer Thom Rumberger.

Redistricting is becoming more popular in theory; voters don't seem to like partisan meddling.

But process-reform ballot initiatives often fail, in part because the language used to describe them is so complicated. And it's unclear whether most Republican-leaning voters in the state are all that unhappy about their party entrenching its control of legislative districts. (Dem leaders in DC are wary of the idea, too. They don't want to mess with their own incumbency privileges.)

CA's major reform effort failed; Texas's mid-decade redistricting will this spring be debated for the U.S. Supreme Court. If the court rules that political considerations intruded too much, a wave of "independent commission" proposals might suddenly roll through the 50 states. The Center for Voting and Democracy is a good site to check for updates.

Posted 01.26.06 02:48 PM | Comments (0)

Coincidence?

John Raese gets in.

Hours later, Sen. Robert Byrd (D-WV) announces he'll support Judge Sam Alito.

(To be fair, Byrd's the guy who talks about his respect for the Constitution and carries a copy in his pocket. He's probably not one to take his judicial nomination votes lightly.)

Update: Tim Johnson makes it three.

Posted 01.26.06 02:37 PM | Comments (1)

Dean on Today Show

In case you missed it...

On domestic spying: "Democrats the support the idea that you have to spy on terrorists. We support the idea that you need to eavesdrop from time to time but we also believe the president ought to obey the law. ... This is not simply a listening to al Qaeda this is poking around into people's private lives."

More: "I don't know why the president is doing this. We all believe that you spy on al Qaeda but we don't believe you shouldn't spy on American citizens without some third party looking at this. That's what makes the difference between countries like America and Iran, where the government can do anything they damn well please. ... The president is breaking the law. There's no need for it. ... It's a bad example for our kids for the president to insist that it's okay for him to blame the law."

Asked why there's no co-operation on the issue: "The president isn't interested in hearing from anybody else. He's not only not interested in listening to Democrats -- I can understand that we're the opposition party -- but he's not interesting in listening to the military. ... He wouldn't even listen to his own Secretary of State Colin Powell. This is a head-strong president who thinks he's above the law. We don't think that's right. ... If we get back in power we're going to make a real effort to get Osama bin Laden. We're not going to let him lolly around for four years. ... We're going to do a lot better job on national security than this president is doing."

Asked to describe what the Dem Party stands for in 30 seconds: "One: American jobs that will stay in America, using energy independence to generate those jobs. Two: a strong national defense based on telling the truth to our citizens, our soldiers and our allies. Three: Honesty and integrity to be restored to government. Four: A health care system that works for everybody just like they have in 36 other countries. Five: a strong public education system so we can optimism and opportunity back in America."

NBC's Couric: "Thank you for staying in the 30 second time frame."

Asked about a Hillary Clinton WH run: "I'm sure she's not thinking about the presidency right now. I don't comment on '08 since I'm going to have to referee in that one."

On Jack Abramoff: "Not one dime of money from Jack Abramoff went to any Democrat. ... We can show you the FEC reports. We're very happy to do it. There's been a lot of stuff in the press. The Republican National Committee has been spinning this has been a bipartisan scandal. This is Republican-financed scandal" (NBC, 1/26).

Posted 01.26.06 02:34 PM | Comments (0)

Wal-Mart In The News

Two news stories this a.m. make mention of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's first public remarks on Wal-Mart yesterday. Newsday suggests that Clinton pushed Wal-Mart to shoulder more of its employees health care burden.

Still, Newsday correctly notes: "Clinton never explicitly endorsed Maryland's law during her speech before the U.S. Conference of Mayors in Washington, but she later told reporters, 'I certainly understand their need to try to take some action because the burden is getting shifted onto the taxpayer.'"

More: "Asked if she had advocated better benefits while serving as a board member with Arkansas-based Wal-Mart from 1986 to 1991, Clinton replied, 'Well, you know, I, that was a long time ago ... have to remember,' adding that 'obviously I believe every company should" contribute to benefit plans.'"

To our ears, the more significant Wal-Mart related political news is what outgoing fed chair Alan Greenspan wrote in a letter to a GOPer in Congress.

Greenspan urged Congress to review an exemption to federal banking laws that allow so-called "industrial banks" to escape regulatory scrutiny.

As Reuters notes: " His comments come as regulators review a controversial application by Wal-Mart to open an industrial bank primarily to handle electronic payment processing. That bid has drawn concern from some in Congress, and from some financial institutions, that the world's largest retailer could use its bank as a base to offer a much wider array of services."

Posted 01.26.06 01:21 PM | Comments (1)

Big Sky, Big Scandal

Check out Hotline senior editor John Mercurio's latest PolitiScope, where he writes that "anyone who thinks the Jack Abramoff scandal isn't gaining "traction" as a partisan issue should watch what's going on this week in Montana."

Posted 01.26.06 12:25 PM | Comments (0)

Pryce Reveals Election Day Details

House GOP Conf. chair Rep. Deborah Pryce (R-OH) sent a letter to colleagues today detailing the schedule of events next Thursday, when the party is set to choose a replacement for Rep. Tom DeLay.

Pryce writes that the conference will meet on 2/1 to "entertain any motion or resolution pertaining to the leadership election." Translation: motions to vacate other posts -- such as Pryce's -- would be considered at that time. Then, Rules Cmte Chairman David Dreier "will lead a discussion on lobbying and ethics reform." Pryce warns her colleagues that the session will be "lengthy."

On 2/2, the conference will meet to vote. After nominating and seconding speeches, voting begins. Candidates need a majority of the 232 voting members -- at least 117 votes -- to win. If the first ballot doesn't produce a winner, the candidate with the least number of votes is removed and balloting continues until a majority is cobbled together.

UPDATE: While on the topic of the Gentlelady from Columbus, we thought we'd note that another Pryce email came across our desk (er, screen) earlier today. This missive, also under her leadership letterhead, took a shot at the House Dems' "hypocrisy" over lobbying reform. It unearthed some oppo on Min Leader Nancy Pelosi, pointing out a '95 vote where they say she voted against a provision "to prohibit registered lobbyists from giving gifts to members, officers, or employees of the House and Senate."

A coincidence that the Conference p.r. machine would crank up a day after two other GOPers made their interest known in the gig?

Posted 01.26.06 11:38 AM | Comments (2)

Upcoming '08 Hopeful Visits To MI

Normally, journalists have to pull teeth to get state party chairs to alert us to upcoming visits by prospective presidential candidates. But not MI GOP chair Saul Anuzis.

From his must-read blog, about Super Bowl weekend:

"MA Governor Mitt Romney will be the key note speaker at the Oakland County Lincoln Day Dinner Friday night and then staying through the weekend for bowl activities. NY Governor George Pataki and VA Senator George Allen will also be attending various functions over the weekend."

BTW: there's also a catchy jobs clock that Anuzis and Co. are promoting to create a narrative about Gov. Jennifer Granholm.

Posted 01.26.06 11:35 AM | Comments (0)

The Democrat Party

Some advice for Dems: the GOP knows that you're not the "Democrat" party or the "Democrat National Committee." And, yes, Ken Mehlman's English teacher taught him when to use the suffix "ic."

When, say, President Bush refers to the opposition party as the "Democrat Party," Republicans know that it, in the words of one Dem who e-mailed us this morning, "pisses us off."

That's why they do it.

Because it irritates Dems. And because "Democrat" triggers more negative connotations than "Democratic."

Of course, when Mehlman addressed the NAACP in Milwaukee last July, he said "Democratic." That was one audience he didn't want to offend.

Posted 01.26.06 11:15 AM | Comments (10)

Bush Skeptical About New NSA Law From Congress

On the NSA spying/"terrorist surveillance" program, Bush said it "is necessary to protect America from attach." Bush said that after 9/11, he asked his advisers whether he should get a congressional authorization to use NSA resources to target terrorists in the US. Bush: "I asked before we do anything, I want to make sure it's legal." He said he made sure "there were safeguards" in place to protect civil liberties. Bush: "As I stand here right now, I can tell the American people that the program is legal, it's necessary to protect national security, and it's designed to protect civil liberties." Bush: "If the attempt to write law would...expose the nature of this program, I will resist it."

Posted 01.26.06 10:35 AM | Comments (0)

Bush On The Abramoff Photos

"There is a serious investigation going on as their should be. The American people should have confidence in the ethics of all government. I've had my people taken with him evidently. Having my picture taken with someone doesn't mean that I'm a friend with them or know them very well. I've had my picture taken with you at holiday parties. I'm also mindful that we live in the world that those pictures will be used for pure political purposes and they're not useful for the investigation."

Posted 01.26.06 10:35 AM | Comments (2)

Bush: "Liberty Is Spreading Across The Middle East"

Asked if a Hamas victory in Palestine means that the peace process is dead, Bush: Peace is never dead because people want peace. That's why I articulated the two-state solution. early in my administration."

Bush called yesterday's high turnout election a referendum on the "status quo". Bush: "Obviously, people were not happy with the status quo." He said the Palestinian people didn't think the "old guard" was able to provide them with basic services and security. Bush said he likes the "competition of ideas." He said he talked to NSA Sec. Rice twice this a.m. and would continue to monitor the situation. He hinted he would not engage Hamas until they recognized Israel's right to exist. Since no gov't has yet formed, though, Bush refused to say what his exact posture toward Hamas would be. Bush: "If there is corruption, I'm not surprised that people say, let's get rid of corruption."

Posted 01.26.06 10:26 AM | Comments (2)

Pakistan's PM Visits Kerry

We hear that Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) played host Tuesday night to the visiting prime minister of Pakistan.

At their Georgetown home, Kerry and Teresa Heinz Kerry hosted PM Shaukat Aziz and about ten guests, including Sens. Lindsey Graham, Patrick Leahy, Carl Levin, Richard Lugar, Jack Reed, Gordon Smith and John Warner.

Posted 01.26.06 09:40 AM | Comments (1)

January 25, 2006

HRC On Wal Mart

Speaking of Sen. Clinton and health care...

In a speech today to mayors in Washington, Clinton discussed, for the first time we know of, efforts by states to force companies like Wal-Mart to shoulder a larger portion of employee's health care costs.

Of the President's State of the Union proposals, Clinton said that they would "shift costs and risks even more on the backs of individuals, many of whom will not be able to carry it. It is troubling to me that when we look at this shifting of costs, again the buck stops with state and local government. You know that many uninsured people show up in the emergency rooms in the hospitals in your cities."

Clinton continues: "Maryland recently sought to address this cost-shifting, requiring that companies like Wal-Mart put 8 percent of their payroll costs into employee health benefits . . . or contribute to state-sponsored insurance for the working poor. Similar steps have been taken in New York City and elsewhere in New York. Because cities and states are saying, we can't keep holding the bag here. Everybody has got to be part of the solution because we are all part of the problem that we confront."

To be clear: Clinton does not necessarily endorse MD's approach. But she suggests that such state-based interventions are made more likely by the health care philosophy of the governing Republican class.

Clinton, by the way, was a Wal-Mart board member before her husband ran for president.

Posted 01.25.06 06:29 PM | Comments (1)

HRC's On A Health Care Tear

Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton waded shoulder-deep into health care issues this week. You wouldn't necessarily know it by perusing her press, which focuses on her NSA worries, that lefty angst about a potential '08 candidacy, and a purported lack of upstate appeal.

Yes -- her war on terror toughness and how well her views comport with America's views of the NSA program -- those will be part of her repetoire if she runs in 2008.

But for New Yorkers -- her real audience right now -- Clinton is what just might be returning to her roots as a self-styled candidate of reform -- in this case, the precarious (for her) subject of the nation's health care system.

At a town hall meetings on Monday, Clinton surveyed the aftermath of the new drug benefit for Medicare; 6 million Americans had to switch to Medicare from Medicaid in order to keep their perscriptions, and a not insubstantial chunk of them live in New York. The forums -- another is scheduled for next Monday -- were planned before the problems with the new drug plan manifested themselves.

This week, Clinton also sent two letters to her extremely large list of e-mail supporters. One highlighted her promise to introduce legislation repealing a last-minute GOP-backed budget provision that gives insurance companies leeway to charge governments more for Medicaid.

On health care, Clinton warned her constituents about the philosophical grounding behind the president's desire to expand health savings accounts. We haven't seen any other candidate prebut Bush's SOTU like that. Clinton: "We're not going to let them. Once again, we must stop their ill-advised, unfair plan in its tracks."

She asked for personal stories about health care, and more than 2K have reached the campaign in less than 48 hours.

Clinton's campaign communications director, Ann Lewis, says they're still sorting them through.

The upstate press was positive. One paper called on her to use her admittedly ambiguous experience with health care reform to lead such efforts in Congress.

With her health care IT legislation already in the hooper -- cosponsored by Sen. Bill Frist -- with Bush about to give a system fix a go, Clinton has chosen to kick-off her formal re-election campaign by turning to health care and promising action.

Posted 01.25.06 06:28 PM | Comments (2)

Gov. Ed Rendell, The Face Of The DNC

The DNC is bragging about its podcast feautring the straight-talking, no-nonsense governor from Pennsylvania, Ed Rendell.

....who endorsed Sam Alito yesterday and said of the Democratic efforts to defeat the nomination, "I wasn't pleased."

Posted 01.25.06 05:07 PM | Comments (0)

John McCain And The Circular Firing Squad

What frustrates some social conservative elites about John McCain: they don't perceive any passion in his pro-life votes or pronouncements.

(TO wit: Hotline's quote of the day: "I've never agreed with Roe v. Wade so it wouldn't bother me any." He had been asked if confirming Alito would lead to that decision's being overturned.)

What frustrates John McCain about some of these social conservative elites: what more do they want him to say or do? saying he's "never agreed" with Roe is about as plain a position on abortion rights as one can take in such a polarized climate.

What frustrates John McCain (and his advisers) about the establishment media:

Items that include head-scratching sentences like this: "If, as conservatives believe, McCain's liberal stands on gays and abortion kill his GOP primary chances..."

Posted 01.25.06 04:22 PM | Comments (1)

Labor's Love Lost?

Rep. Melissa Bean (D-IL 08) alienated many labor supporters when she voted for CAFTA last fall. Now she's hoping unions, which comprised 49 percent of her PAC money last cycle, don't prevent her re-election. Several unions are considering withholding their support for her in '06. The Teamsters have talked with GOP candidate David McSweeney (R) and are considering helping a third party candidate, Bill Scheurer. While labor voters aren't a sizable constituency in the affluent district, she'll need to turn out the Dem base to win one of the state's most pro-Bush districts.

Many of the same labor groups irked by Bean's voting record are also lukewarm about DCCC Chmn Rahm Emanuel's recruitment of Iraq war veteran Tammy Duckworth (D) to run next door in IL 06. If Duckworth is the nominee, she'll face state Sen Peter Roskam (R), who has worked with unions during his tenure in the state legislature. It would be ironic if labor's lack of enthusiasm for these Dems helped tip these seats to the GOP. If that happened, the first political casualties of last year's labor split could be IL Dems. [JOSH KRAUSHAAR]

Posted 01.25.06 03:37 PM | Comments (2)

Rush Supports Allen In '08?

Seems so, folks.

From a question and answer session with the Desert Sun:

"Who do you think will be the GOP's candidate for president in 2008?"

"A. This is the first year I can remember, the first election that there's no acknowledged frontrunner. It's wide open. A number of people think it will be McCain, I hope not. I like George Allen."

"Q. Why not McCain?"

"A. I don't think he's conservative, pure and simple."

------

Still, as one member of a rival camp e-mails: "I like George Allen is not the same as I support George Allen (to the exclusion of all other candidates)."

Posted 01.25.06 03:13 PM | Comments (15)

THe Futures Market: Iowa

Some GOP sources suggest that '06 may be tough for the party. Dems are excited by the prospects afforded to them by the nat'l landscape and seem poised to re-take the state legislature, where they currently face a tied Sen and a 2-seat deficit in the House. Re-taking the legislature would create a new crop of rising stars for Dems, but each party has its share of 20-somethings who we may be following in 5, 10 or 15 years. [REID WILSON]

State Rep. Bill Dix (R): "He's running a great campaign" for Rep. Jim Nussle's (R) IA 01 seat. And while he faces a tough primary, "he's really been impressing some folks."

'02 LG nominee Debbie Durham (R): Most GOPers "don't see her doing anything politically." She took herself out of consideration for an encore LG bid when her name was floated early in '05.

State Rep. Kent Kramer (R): Resigned from the State House to spend time with family, but "he will be back in politics at some point."

State Sen. Jeff Lamberti (R): Running against Rep. Leonard Boswell (D) in '06. Unlike previous GOP nominees, he is expected to run a competitive race. Thanks to his family's successful business, he may be able to at least partly self-fund. "He's not the flashiest guy around, ... but I think you could put him in the star category."

State Sen. Chuck Larson (R): An Iraqi war vet, "he's been a young star for so long that it's hard to realize he's still young." Leaving the Sen. in '06 to build a family and private law practice. However, some expect to see him 5 or 10 years down the road.

State Rep. Steve Lukan (R): "That guy is something else." Having defeated a Dem incumbent at age 23, some say of Lukan, now 27, "I would be really disappointed if we don't see him run for statewide office or Congress."

State House Speaker Chris Rants (R): "Doesn't have the people skills" of some of the other rising stars. Does a good job keeping his caucus together, but he cuts deals with Gov. Tom Vilsack and Dem minorities to get things done in the Legislature.

State Sen. Bryan Sievers (R): After being accused of switching cows at a county fair in order to win a 4H contest, Sievers lost a re-election bid in '04. The story spent weeks on the front page and eventually went to trial, and while neither side was vindicated, Sievers had to give up the prize money and the trophy. Prior to the scandal, he had considered a bid for IA 01, but decided against it after his loss.

State Rep. Swati Dandekar (D): Just 31 years old, Dandekar is one of the only Indian-American elected officials in the country. She raises a lot of money for the Dem caucus and is heavily involved in the DLC, now run by IA Gov. Tom Vilsack (D).

State Sen. Bill Dotzler (D): "One of the Senate leaders," brings labor to the table. "Just a terrific guy." Had considered a bid for IA 01, but was convinced to remain in the Sen, where the parties hold an equal number of seats.

State Rep. Helen Miller (D): "She's going to be making a name for herself in the legislature."

State Rep. Kevin McCarthy (D): Son of Des Moines Chief of Police William McCarthy, Kevin is "making some waves" in the State House. He's "definately someone who's going places."

State Sen. Joe Seng (D): Not seen as a rising star. "He's kind of an odd duck," but he's well-liked in his Davenport-based district.

State Sen. Steve Warnstadt (D): Elected in a district that favors GOPers, "Steve is fantastic" and "a good common sense legislator." "He's arrived ... He's a bright light."

And the ones to watch in the future:

House Speaker Pro Tem Danny Carroll (R): Called by many a religious conservative, Carroll nonetheless Worked with Vilsack to get Medicare reform passed and has worked with Dems on issues of teacher pay, prescription drug issues and anti-gaming legislation. "Bears watching." May be a future candidate for Gov or Congress.

IA Exec. Dir. Cullen Sheehan: After working for Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN), "I don't see anybody that's going to work harder" for the party. "Whether he's in" IA, MN, DC or UT, "he's going to be big."

House Maj Whip Libby Jacobs (R): Has been discussed as Nussle's possible LG candidate and as a possible candidate for Congress. "She's always been considered a real possibility for higher office." "I wouldn't doubt that she's on a list."

State Rep. Jim Kurtenbach (R): Assoc. Prof. at Drake Univ, he could run for higher office some day. "He could have a future, absolutely."

Ex-Vilsack Policy Dir. Dusky Terry (D): One of Vilsack's first and longest-serving aides, Terry, now the favorite to win the Dem nod for Sec of Agriculture, is just 30 years old. "You're going to be hearing from him, I guarantee you." "He is the future of the Democratic party in IA."

State Sen. Jeff Danielson (D): First elected last year, Danielson is a firefighter and "one of those guys who could definately go places." "He's one to watch."

State Rep. Geri Huser (D): She "gets a lot of flack" for bucking leadership in the House, but her independence serves her well in her district. "Very popular, very smart." "She'll definately be on the list of people who run" to succeed Rep. Leonard Boswell (D) in IA 03. A very skilled fundraiser, probably able to raise more than any other State Rep., which will make her a formative candidate in the future.

State Sen. Matt McCoy (D): "He's been in the thick of a lot of development" in Des Moines. He may end up running for Congress in the future.

Posted 01.25.06 01:29 PM | Comments (2)

The Future Is Here

Opening up our presidential notebooks, here's a look at some upcoming calendar items featuring potential '08 events:

On 2/2, NY Gov. George Pataki returns to IA for three days.

On 2/3, MA Gov. Mitt Romney returns to his homestate of Michigan for a major state party fundraiser in Oakland Co. (Romney has a short trip to NH on 1/27). Also on 2/3, ex-Speaker Newt Gingrich speaks in Orlando. And Maj. Leader Bill Frist is in NH.

On 2/10, Sen. George Allen speaks at the Conservative Political Action Conference in VA, as does Newt Gingrich. Also: Ex-VA Gov. Mark Warner does the NH Dem Party's 100 Club Dinner.

On 2/23-24, Romney raises money for SC GOPers.

On 2/27, Frist is set to deliver a big economic policy address to the Detroit Economic Club.

On 3/2, AR Gov. Mike Huckabee spends the day in SC, attending events in York and Charleston Cos.

On 3/9, Allen, Barbour, Huckabee, Romney, Frist, and others speak at the Southern GOP Leadership Conference in Memphis.

On 3/13, Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN) will keynote the GA Dem's J-J dinner in Atlanta.

On 3/24, Allen raises money for Sen. Jim DeMint in SC.

On 4/4, Frist speaks to the Iowa Health System Spring Forum in Des Moines.

BTW: A Warner trip to Iowa is in the works for late winter/early spring.

Posted 01.25.06 12:59 PM | Comments (0)

WV: Raese's In

Republican sources said this a.m. that industrialist John Raese will announce he's running for Senate in WV.

Dem Robert Byrd is the incumbent.

Raese informed the WV State GOP and the NRSC of his decision late yesterday.

Sources expect Raese to release a statement today or tomorrow.

Raese, widely known in the state because of his corporate stewardship and his '84 SEN/88 Gov runs, was asked to consider a bid by senior Republicans in Washington.

With race's expected entrance, at least one other GOP candidate, ad agency exec George Johnson, will drop out. Others, like Iraq war vet Hiram Lewis, optometrist Zane Lawhorn and '04 congressional candidate Rick Snuffer are likely to stay in the race, at least for a little while. [MARC AMBINDER]

Posted 01.25.06 11:56 AM | Comments (2)

If Elections Are Held, Blackburn Is In

Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) -- an ambitious, second-term member from suburban Nashville who rode to victory in '02 after making her name as a conservative state senator in the TN GOP's intra-party battle over creating a state income tax -- will challenge House Conference Chair Deborah Pryce (R-OH) should there be a contest for the leadership post when the House comes back into session next week.

Blackburn spokesman Ryan Loskarn confirmed the heretofore rumors to The Hotline, by saying his boss "will be a contender" and taking a thinly veiled swipe at what critics view as the incumbent's chief shortcoming. Loskarn: [Blackburn] "has worked hard independently and as part of the Conference team to address the GOP's communication problem and won't shy away from greater responsibility."

Whether or not there will even be race for the position, though, is yet to be determined. [JONATHAN MARTIN]

Posted 01.25.06 11:22 AM | Comments (0)

January 24, 2006

Pick On Someone Your Own Size!

After being rewarded the Congressman Brian Baird and Rachel Nugent Scholarship, Centralia College student Kevin Nelson, in a letter he later wrote, noted he "promptly mailed the scholarship board a thank you note."

A gentleman, he is. But Nelson received a letter in response to his response -- from Rep. Brian Baird (D-WA) himself.

After criticizing Nelson's note as "not very impressive to say the least," Baird offered Nelson some "friendly and helpful" suggestions, regarding the length, stationery and tone appropriate for a "sincere and heartfelt expression of gratitude." According to Nelson, Baird's response was received "roughly five months later."

Typed on scholarship stationary, Baird also sent the letter to the Centralia College Scholarship Office.

And how did we find out about this? Mr. Nelson, it seems, sent the letter to WA GOPers and urged them to forward it everyone who might find it interesting.

Baird comm. dir. Meghan O'Shaughnessy: "He's a former college professor. He had his educator hat on. It's unfortunate that Mr. Nelson has taken it to this extreme."

UPDATE: Rep./Dr. Baird wrote in to say that we misspelled "stationery." For which we humbly apologize...

Posted 01.24.06 06:24 PM | Comments (7)

Americans United, Again

Tomorrow, a labor-funded adjunct of '05 Democratic efforts to beat down Social Security reform will rebrand itself as a permanent companion for the party's legislative and communication initiatives.

Americans United (without the "for Protection of Social Security) has marching orders to magnify the Democratic agenda in states and to counter positive press Bush and GOPers generate outside the Beltway.

The hallmarks are all there -- the McEntee press conferences, the Woodhouse e-mails, the Molstre strategizing -- the close contact with Dem leaders. Who's new? Karen Olick, an ex-CoS to Sen. Barbara Boxer, who will run the group.

Topping the agenda: the group will promote the Dems' version of lobbying reform -- or, The Honest Leadership Initiative. Expect them to bust into gear after the President's state of the union address next week. If the President proposes an expansion of health savings accounts or touts immigration reform, AU will coordinate opposition efforts state-by-state.

Money for the entity comes from labor unions like AFSCME and from wealthy liberals.

Will Progress for America pivot after Alito to help GOPers?

Stay tuned....

Posted 01.24.06 05:05 PM | Comments (1)

Kingston's "American Renewal Project"

He's not yet a declared candidate for conference chair -- in part because there's no race yet and there may not be -- but GOP conf. vice-chair Jack Kingston (R-GA) is tending to his reputation as a forward-thinker.

A Dear Colleague letter he sent today is a -- dare we say it -- Contract With America-like agenda for GOPers to drive legislation with in '06 and a guide for winning nationalized midterm contests in November.

Kingston would create a "BRAC-type" commission to find ways to trim the government. He favors zero-based budgeting, sunset provisions attached to all new government programs and unspecified earmark reform.

The second plank speaks for itself: "A balanced immigration policy that secures the nation’s borders and deters illegal immigration and criminal activity."

Kingston also promotes a focus on energy independence, and on a tax code that is "simple, fair and honest."

Oh by the way: It was Newt Gingrich who convinced Kingston to run for GA statehouse and then for Congress. [MARC AMBINDER]

Posted 01.24.06 04:37 PM | Comments (0)

Giuliani: Soul Man

Thousands of pastors and clergy attending a major evangelical soul-saving conclave in Orlando, FL tomorrow will hear from a most surprising guest: Ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani.

Giuliani, a supporter of abortion rights and gay rights, has never publicly identified himself as an evangelical. He is a practicing Catholic. And he's known as a centrist Republican with libertarian instincts on some social issues.

Matthew Mahoney, a Giuliani spokesman, said the mayor was "in town for another speech and was invited to speak" at the pastors' conference. He will not be paid for his appearance, Mahoney said.

The Global Pastors Network's "Billion Souls Pastors Conference" links Christian captains of industry with front-line evangelizers. The proximate goal: to get pastors to think about vision and strategy.

The ultimate goal, according to the Global Pastors Network: to seed five million new churches worldwide, which, in turn, will bring one billion men and women to Christ within ten years. (The phone number of GPN: 1-866-WIN-THEM)

Here's part of a GPN pitch: "For pastors who want to plant a stake in that billion souls, this is the event that will help to ensure that it becomes harder each day for a soul to die without Christ because you are doing your part and leading a church of active soul-winners."

Other speakers include the man Christianity Today called the "gold standard" of Pentecostalism, Jack Hayford, relationship expert Gary Smalley, dispensationalist John Hagee, pastor of a mega church, gospel singer Billy Joe Daugherty, Assemblies of God superintendent Dr. Thomas Trask, Carlos Beiart, the pastor of Argentina's largest church, Walt Disney World president Al Weiss, and Jerry Falwell. [MARC AMBINDER]

Posted 01.24.06 03:48 PM | Comments (1)

You Are Where You Live

As the Hotline noted today, Richard Tarrant, a GOP Senate candidate in VT, returned more than $4K to Broward Co. Florida on 1/23 after acknowledging that he and his wife claimed improperly homestead exemptions in two states -- FL and VT.

It's a common error for families with homes in more than one state; if you claim an exemption in one, you usually can't claim an exemption in another.

Tarrant made his fortune in VT and made plans to move to FL in '02. That's where his wife, Deb, was living. But Tarrant decided his heart was with his company, and he was recruited by national Republicans to run against Bernie Sanders (I) for Jim Jeffords; Senate seat. Tarrant called the experience, according to Burlington Free Press, a lesson in politics.

A second NRSC recruit may face political questions because of a similar, although not entirely analogous living arrangement.

John Raese, a well-known West Virginia industrialist, lives with his wife Liz and two daughters in a sun-baked mansion abutting the intercoastal waterway in Palm Beach, Co. Florida.

The Raeses love their home; Liz Raese volunteers at her daughters' school nearby. And for the past several years, Florida law has rewarded their fealty by subtracting $25,000 from their tax assessments -- a homestead exemption that any permanent resident of the state can claim. [MARC AMBINDER]

But John Raese is not a Floridian. In 1984, he challenged Jay Rockefeller for an open WV Senate seat, losing by a percentage point. Four years later, after a stint as state party chair, he ran unsuccessfully against a sitting Republican governor. The two losses dampened his enthusiasm for politics, and he dove back into business. A entrepreneur who owns television stations and a newspaper, he's one of the state's more generous philanthropists.

And, urged on by the White House and the Republican National Committee, he's strongly considering a bid to challenge incumbent Sen. Robert Byrd, a Democrat. National Republicans consider him their last best shot and Democrats are awaiting his entrance. Only a self-funder, the thinking is, could possibly have a shot at dethroning Byrd, who has faced opponents with negligible money since at least '82. Still, it's not clear how West Virginians think Raese stacks up to Byrd. The state's filing deadline is Monday, Jan. 27.

Raese is a legal resident of WV. His family home in Morgantown is on the National Register of Historic Places. By all accounts, Raese himself spends a good deal of time tending to his companies in the state. (Republicans will probably say he gets more face-time with average West Virginians than Sen. Byrd does.)

But Liz Raise, in a 2002 document filed with the property assessor in Palm Beach County, declared Florida as her permanent, primary home. That allowed her to seek and obtain the $25,000 exemption. Other county assessment documents make it clear that both John and Liz Raese are agents of the property. They co-signed a mortgage and their names jointly appear on several documents filed to notify the county about construction work on their property.

A 2005 "notice of commencement" lists Elizabeth and John Raese as the owner of the property. A subsequent entry states that the home is the "personal residence" of the owners. Filed in 2001 when the Raeses added a patio and spa to their home, lists "Mr. and Mrs. John Raese" as the owners, although Liz Raese wrote her name in ink above the typed notation listing both Raeses.

The Democratic line of attack, should it arise, would portray Raese as a dilettante -- a long-shot candidate whose family lives in a Palm Beach, FL mansion. Republicans say Raese is talented and are happy to watch Dems underestimate him.

"By attacking an unannounced candidate Democrats are telling me they see how vulnerable Senator Byrd is," said Dan Ronayne, an NRSC spokesman. "If Democrats are looking to make an issue of time spent back in West Virginia they may be barking up the wrong tree."

Posted 01.24.06 03:05 PM | Comments (3)

Inside The Numbers III: The Club

One of the earliest and loudest supporters off the Hill for Rep. John Shadegg's (R-AZ) bid for Maj Leader was The Club for Growth.

But has their endorsement translated into Shadegg endorsements from some of The Club's closest allies in the House?

Not yet.

Of the 17 Club-endorsed GOPers from '04 currently serving in the House, only 2 are publicly backing the AZ'an: Rep's Jeff Flake (AZ) and Connie Mack (FL).

5 are with Roy Blunt: Rep's Gohmert (TX), Westmoreland (GA), Jindal (LA), Poe (TX) and McHenry (NC).

2 have endorsed John Boehner: Rep's McMorris (WA) and Sessions (TX).

Now we know that some of Shadegg's supporters (the names Ryan, Pence and Hensarling jump to mind) are Club-friendly, but of those members they endorsed in '04, 8 are still holding out. Or are they?

What say you Rep's Musgrave (C0), Lungren (CA), Price (GA), Sodrel (IN), Inglis (SC), Drake (VA) and DeLay (TX)?

Posted 01.24.06 02:59 PM | Comments (1)

Davos!

Safe to say: The Hotline was not invited to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland this year. But we think we could have made the case to our bosses that the rufflings of snow in Europe can produce a mighty wind across the pond.

Davos was where a CNN President blundered and later resigned. Where Al Gore first gave his famous power-point presentation on global warming. Where Bill Clinton raised millions for his AIDS projects. Where. John Kerry managed to impress Bill Safire with his sober mien and "earnest demeanor."

This year, the star American politicians include Ex-Gov. Mark Warner (D-VA) and Sen. John McCain (R-AZ).

Warner might use the Davos experience to convince the global business/political intelligencia -- there really is no better way to describe the participants --that he can grasp the finer points of foreign policy.

Dems know that John Edwards' boffo performance at another major global meet in '04 valued to the top of Kerry's vice presidential list. Before the Bilderberg Society conclave in June of 04, Edwards needed major party poo-bahs to bless his newly-acquired foreign policy credentials.

After, he had a feather in his cap. Al Hunt, the doyenne of Washington Democratic establishment jouranlists, a Carvillian, a very smart observer, wrote in his Wall Street Journal column that he had been told about Edwards's smashing peformance.

(Quote: "...two of the biggest figures in the Democratic establishment, neither big Edwards fans earlier, came back raving about his performance.")

Edwards had debated Ralph Reed; at the end, the sober Bilderbergers broke out in applause. And word reached Kerry.

May the conspiracy theorists have it right....

Posted 01.24.06 02:44 PM | Comments (0)

SRLC Adds Coleman and Graham To The Mix

More confirmed speakers for March's Southern Republican Leadership Conference in Memphis: today, the TN GOP will announce that Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN) and Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) will speak.

That's in addition to Sens: Allen, Alexander, Barbour, Frist and Govs Romney and Huckabee. (And others).

Our requisite reminder: The Hotline will conduct the presidential straw poll of attendees. And bloggers: join us!

Posted 01.24.06 02:39 PM | Comments (1)

Click Here For Your Favorite Shows

With many news networks joining the podcasting world, Hotline decided to give you a rundown of how and where to get your favorite shows. For a primer, check the jump.

The Networks

ABC: Shows available include "Nightline," highlights from "GMA" and the latest headlines from "World News Tonight" and "World News Now."

CBS: Shows available include "60 Minutes," "Evening News" and news headlines and highlights.

CNN's podcasts are a subset of the CNNRadio full-service radio network and tend to be individual news stories rather than full shows.

C-SPAN offers podcasts for "Q&A," "Road to the White House," and "Afterwords."

FNC provides highlights from "On the Record."

MSNBC and NBC have one webpage for all their podcasts which includes the "Nightly News," "Meet the Press," and highlights from "Today," "Hardball," "Live & Direct," "Countdown," "Scarborough Country," and the "Situation."

NPR offers podcasts of the stories of the day and programming from local stations.

PBS offers podcasts from "NewsHour" and "Washington Week" along with other programs.

A podcast primer follows the jump.

You don't need an iPod to listen to a podcast. They are mp3 audio files that are downloaded to your computer, where you can listen to them there or transfer them to an iPod or other mp3 player (and, yes, they're usually free). You do need podcasting software to hear them. The basic requirements for podcasting are a computer, podcasting software and an Internet connection. But if you want portability, you need an iPod or other portable mp3 player.

In order to download free podcasting software for PCs, visit one of the following sites:

iTunes

Juice

jPodder

To get started, download and install your choice of podcasting software onto your computer. Although applications vary, each one should provide instructions on how to add podcast feeds to your list. Then, just check for the new podcasts and mp3s of your selected programs that will be on your computer and, if have one, on your mp3 player.

Posted 01.24.06 02:02 PM | Comments (1)

Traction in Montana?

Did NRSC Chairman Elizabeth Dole know that Sen. Conrad Burns (R-MT) was going up with an Abramoff ad when she held her press briefing Monday?

We ask because one day after Dole told reporters that corruption was "not something that is going to get a lot of traction" in the '06 cycle, Burns, one of her most vulnerable incumbents, aired a TV ad (his first this cycle) in which he mentions Jack Abramoff by name and tacitly acknowledges that the scandal is causing him headaches. Sounds like tr