January 30, 2006

The CW

No, not that CW.

We're talking about the conventional wisdom in political Washington that Rep's Shadegg and Boehner have accrued enough support between them to force a second ballot in next week's Maj Leader race. Indeed, just about the only people you talk to who don't believe the race will reach a runoff are those toiling in a certain well-appointed leadership office upstairs in the Capitol.

Has the political "CW" been wrong before? Too many times to recall. But for a number of reasons (among them Shadegg's rock star support in the conservative blogosphere and the absence of the sort of MSM scrutiny which Boehner and Blunt were subject to at the race's outset) the momentum that had carried Blunt's candidacy to the brink of inevitability a few weeks ago has hit a wall.

To be fair to Team Blunt, the wall they've hit is cushioned with the public endorsement of some 94 colleagues (more on that later). However, if Blunt's claims of having more than the needed 117 commitments to wrap up the contest on the first vote are proven untrue this week, January 13th will prove to be the turning point in the race.

Having made his pitch to a conference call of the TX GOP's House delegation the previous night, Blunt began the day on a high note, adding seven more endorsements from Lone Star State GOP'ers, including that of powerful Energy & Commerce Cmte chair Joe Barton. With these new commitments in hand, Blunt had 78 public endorsements to Boehner's 37. More than doubling their rival, Blunt's camp was riding high. Embracing the role of the frontrunner, Blunt spokesperson Jessica Boulanger, in one of her daily dispatches to ABC's "The Note," offered that it was "easy for Team Blunt to stay positive" with "100+ commitments -- 78 public."

But later that morning, Shadegg ended days of wooing and hinting by issuing a release announcing his entry in the race. A week later, on January 20th, Blunt had added just eight more public commitments. Shadegg was the hero of conservative bloggers, ed boards and pundits. The race was frozen in place.

Whether this Friday the 13th will haunt Blunt for years to come is unknown until Thursday. What is known is that he and his allies can't get this race over soon enough. In football terms, (tis the season) Blunt has gone to a "prevent defense," allowing Boehner and Shadegg to make incremental gains with endorsements, media appearances and blog chats, but all with the padding of a near-30 vote lead on the combined total of his rivals. The two underdogs, Blunt's camp may tell you, are nowhere near the end zone.

But unlike on the gridiron, leadership races are not won by simply who has more points -- or supporters. For all of Team Blunt's bravado about what Boulanger terms its "117+ public and private supporters," the hard fact remains that they are 23 public endorsements short of the magic number. And of their 94 public backers, how many are committed to the MO'ian beyond the first ballot?

Asked this question, a source close to Blunt noted the Whip's vote-counting credentials and promised that one could "bank on" Blunt being "prepared for whatever scenario may or may not develop, including a second ballot."

As to whether Blunt had gone back and made an additional round of calls to extract second ballot support promises, the source would only say that Blunt "has done the necessary work to ensure his supporters are there, as well as additional supporters who were previously committed to one of the other two camps."

But neutral observers and individuals sympathetic to Bohener and Shadegg say that in the complicated world of leadership races, endorsements are good for only one go around on the carousel. And a source familiar with the Shadegg campaign notes that it is "tricky for Blunt to whip a second ballot given his" public claims of having already reached 117. Asked outright if Shadegg has asked for and received promises of second ballot support from Blunt and Boehner backers, this source offered an unequivocal "yes."

But will the ole CW of a second ballot even prove true? Blunt's camp reiterates their confidence in having the votes to win on the first shot. However, a neutral observer on the Hill following the race closely tells The Hotline that Boehner's whip team has Boehner and Blunt at parity in total support, with each counting on roughly 105 members and the other 22 being either pro-Shadegg or truly undecided. However, a pro-Boehner source downplays their support to somewhere in the 90s, puts Blunt at about 105 and gives Shadegg 25-30 votes. The theory being, per this source and others, that Shadegg's votes swing to Boehner on a second ballot.

Whatever the case, there is one thing for certain. As longtime House watcher Richard Cohen put it in this week's National Journal, there is some "fibbing and exaggerated claims going on."

Posted at 07:31 AM

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