January 31, 2006

The Budget Reconciliation Vote

This morning's CongressDailyAM reports that the House leadership remains confident that its signature budget paring bill will pass -- even as GOPers begin to defect.

In Dec., the House passed its version of the conference report by 212-206. Nine GOPers voted no, and ten didn't vote. As National Journal's Richard Cohen points out, the loss/Senatorial promotion of Bob Menendez for Dems gives House leaders a bit more padding for possible defections.

Because the Senate tinkered with the bill, the House has to vote again. In the intervening month and a half, labor unions have worked to peel off centrist GOPers from the NE and Midwest, blanketing their districts with television advertisements.

Labor argues that the cuts to Medicare in the bill would saddle low-income seniors with higher co-pays. Other liberal groups say the bill would hurt families on welfare. NE GOPers like Rep. Charlie Bass (R-NH)worry about heating oil help for poorer families.

The vote is scheduled for Wednesday, the day before the GOP conference elects a new majority leader.

Rep. Rob Simmons(R-CT) has already announced his intention to switch from yes to no. Rep. Walter Jones (R-NC), who didn't vote the first time, will vote "no" on Wednesday, according to Congressional Quarterly.

Others on the fence, according to Dem sources, GOP sources and published reports: Reps. Boehlert, Sweeney, LoBiondo, Fitzpatrick, Shays, Gerlach and Ramstad.

Even if all those GOPers vote no -- opponents would need a few more votes in order to defeat the bill.

Still, we're bound to hear moderate GOPers grumbling about having to walk the plank (after a month of being pelted back in their CDs) for what amounts to some very small tweaks in the language.

Also: a narrowly-passed bill might trigger doubts among Republicans in the conference whether Maj. Whip. Rep. Roy Blunt has enough clout with members to ascend to the majority leader's position.

And consider this: what happens if, as is typical, the arm-twisting that inevitably accompanies a close vote spills over (even psychologically) into the next day. Will members be eager to promote Blunt? Eager to throw all the bums out? [JONATHAN MARTIN AND MARC AMBINDER]

Posted at 09:01 AM

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