January 27, 2006
The Futures Market: Kansas
As with HI, WY and other states with dominant parties nonetheless shut out of the Gov mansion, KS GOPers have found themselves continually stymied when searching for a challenger to Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (D) this year. However, some say that Sebelius' popularity is to the detriment of the KS Dem bench, and while several of our rising stars have their eyes on statewide office, they may find themselves seriously underperforming one of the most popular Govs in the country. Also of note, while IA featured a former rising star who lost out thanks to a cow's nose-print, KS offers up the first ex-star who's now in prison. [REID WILSON]
The stars we've been watching since '03:
State Rep. Rob Boyer (R): A "2nd tier-3rd tier borderline" Rep., "I wouldn't call him a rising star."
Atty/lobbyist Natalie Haag (R): Sister of State Treas. Lynn Jenkins, not currently thought of as a potential candidate.
State Sen. Tim Huelskamp (R): The leading right-winger in the Senate. "Even the right thinks he's too far right." Interested in running for Rep. Jerry Moran's KS 01 seat, but none of the GOPers we talked to believe he'll make it out of a primary.
State Rep. Bill Kassenbaum (R): The son of ex-Sen. Nancy Kassenbaum (R), Bill lost in the primary '04. "He's toast."
DoJ anti-terrorism expert Kris Kobach (R): After failed bids for State Sen and Congress, "I think he's done." He did contemplate a Gov bid, but opted out early in '05. He's "a talented guy" who would "make a hell of a federal judge."
Ex-KS GOP Exec. Dir. Scott Poor: While he was Exec. Dir., the 4th CD GOPers sued the KS GOP over voter registration issues, saddling the party with $40K in legal bills. "He's gone."
Sen. Maj. Leader Derek Schmidt (R): "Very ambitious," he'll "tread water" and wait for seats to open up, but will eventually take a shot at higher office. He's "been good about being patient." An ex-Nancy Kassenbaum aide, "I'd be very surprised if he wasn't a strong candidate" in '10.
'02 KS 03 nominee/'04 candidate Adam Taff (R): Off to prison after being convicted of fraud for using campaign funds to secure a mortgage on his house. Not considered a future contender.
Sebelius legis. services dir. Jeremy Anderson (D): Anderson survived a recent staff shakeup in the Gov's office, and several Dems mentioned that his running for office "wouldn't surprise me."
Wichita City Councilmember Carl Brewer (D): A member of the city council since '01 and a captain in the KS Nat'l Guard, Brewer was said to be eyeing a state Sen seat. His career has yet to take off as anticipated.
State Rep. Paul Davis (D): He's "got a bright future" and "has potential for higher office down the road."
State Sen. Christine Downey (D): Downey retired from the legislature and has no immediate designs on returning to public life.
State Sen. Janis Lee (D): The assistant Dem leader in the State Sen., that's "probably where she's going to be for the forseeable future."
State Rep. Josh Svaty (D): "He gets the prize just for hanging on out there" in a heavily GOP district. The makeup of his CD makes a move to DC unlikely.
State Rep. Rick Rehorn (D): "His star's dimmed a bit" after losing a primary for Kansas City Mayor by a "healthy" margin.
Crawford County Clerk R.J. Wilson (D): A State Rep. when we first met him, Wilson's promotion shows he's "definately on the upward track." Some Dems think he'd do well to run for Sec/State somewhere down the road.
And the stars to watch in the future:
State Rep. Scott Schwab (R): Running an uphill campaign in KS 03 against Rep. Dennis Moore, (D) but "he's full of potential." Several think he may drop out of the race and run for higher office down the road.
State Rep. Kevin Yoder (R): "A moderate who keeps his head down," but "I think he's a name that you'll see." He's "a sharp guy," though he may lack some TV abilities.
State Sen. Jim Barnett (R): A doctor, Barnett is running for Gov, and while he faces a tough race against Sebelius, but "he's going to improve his standing through this." May have a future after the race.
Kansas City Mayor Joe Reardon (D): The son of an ex-Mayor, Reardon won "surprisingly easy" victories in the primary and general.
Johnson Co. DA Paul Morrison (D): A "skilled prosecutor" and pro-choice Catholic, Morrison was elected as a GOPer before he switched to the Dem party. He's now running for AG against incumbent Phil Kline (R), setting up "probably the marquee race this year."
Douglas County DA Charles Branson (D): "Definate potential down the road" for AG after defeating an incumbent GOPer for his present position.
State Rep. Deliah Garcia (D): Her family owns a restaurant chain in Wichita, and "when we talk about injecting the party with some youth and building a bench," she's the first name on the list.
Sebelius CoS Troy Findley: The former State Rep "came out on top" after a recent staff shakeup. He's seen as one of the leaders of the party.
Posted at 10:54 AM
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