January 31, 2006

The Futures Market: Louisiana

LA is a tough state to survey. While most fed officials are GOPers, Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) still retains a firm grip on her seat, and state politics are still dominated by Dems. Further, as one can imagine, LA pols have some pretty weighty issues on their minds these days. That being said, whoever emerges as the leader of the Katrina rebuilding project will be a hero for generations. Whether that's LG Mitch Landrieu (D), Rep. Bobby Jindal (R) (who everyone mentioned as a Gov candidate in '07) or even Ray Nagin (D), someone's going to be Gov for life. [REID WILSON]

• Sen. David Vitter Statewide Dir. Mike Futrell (R): An ex-State Rep., Futrell's new job "gives him a reason to travel the state," and "I think it sets him up for a statewide run" someday.
• State Rep. Kay Katz (R): The LA GOP's nat'l cmte woman, most consider her to have reached the peak of her political career. "I don't know what she could do past state rep," says one source. Katz is term-limited in '07.
• State Sen. Mike Michot (R): His "name's been floated for various state offices" in '07, but he "definately has a future." He's most likely a candidate for Sec/State, though he's considering other offices as well.
• State Rep. Loulan Pitre (R): "Got the potential to be an up-and-comer," but because he's term-limited in '07 and good friends with his State Sen., he may find himself out in the cold after the election.
• State Rep. Steve Scalise (R): Representing a district hard-hit by Katrina, Scalise has been at "the head of the charge" during the LA legislature's only special session so far this year. He's said to be an all-but-definate candidate for Congress if Jindal runs for Gov.
• State Rep. Karen Carter (D): "It's not uncommon for Karen's name to be tossed about" for higher office, though she may be staying in place until New Orleans settles down. Carter's name has also been mentioned as a possible replacement for Rep. William Jefferson (D) in LA 02.
• State Rep. Don Cazayoux (D): "He's a really good guy," has a "real bright future." Will probably consider a leadership bid in '07.
• State Sen. Lydia Jackson (D): A State Rep when we first set our eyes on her, Jackson is now the "go-to person" for Dems in Shreveport.
• State Rep. Eric LaFleur (D): Chair of House Dem caucus, LaFleur has a "bright future ahead," and has reportedly set his sights on a State Sen. seat in '07.
• LG Mitch Landrieu (D): Just a State Rep. when we met him, Landrieu is now contemplating a bid if Gov. Kathleen Blanco (D) doesn't run in '07, although he's also reportedly been eyeing a challenge to Mayor Nagin. He's said to be "the most charasmatic politician" in LA, and was one of a very few to make a good impression for his Katrina response.
• State Sen. Willie Mount (D): Lost a bid against Rep. Charles Boustany (R) in LA 07. She's ruled out another bid for that seat, but she may try for LG or other statewide office in the future. Complicating matters for her is that she's Gov. Blanco's floor leader, "which is tough these days."
• New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin (D): After Katrina, New Orleans' anti-incumbent sentiment may hurt him, but he sees rebuilding the city as his personal legacy. After the '06 elections, which could be held as early as 4/06 and as late as 9/06, he could either re-emerge as a real star or fade away very quickly.
• State Rep. Gil Pinac (D): Will make a bid for State Sen. in a competitive primary.
• State Rep. Gary Smith (D): While he's "taken a beating" over post-Katrina FEMA contracts given to his family company, Smith may still be a candidate for State Sen. in '07.
• State Rep. Taylor Townsend (D): While Townsend is "constantly courted" by the DCCC to run in LA 04 against Rep. Jim McCrery (R), he "could be" Gov "someday."

• State Rep. Hunter Green (R): Elected to Futrell's Baton Rouge-based seat in a special election in '05. "He can raise some money." After just one session, people are already turning to him to help guide legislation, and his role may lead him to run for leadership in '07.
• State Sen. Julie Quinn (R): The ex-school board member beat a "well-known" state rep in a special election in '05 by self-funding the race. An owner of several hotels in LA, she'll "be a major player for years to come."
• State Sen. Jay Dardenne (R): While he's served in the legislature for a number of years, he "will be a serious threat to win statewide in" '07.
• State Sen. Walter Boasso (R): After Hurricane Katrina, Boasso took the lead in consolidating levee boards and has earned good media throughout the state for his work. A successful businessman in the private sector, Boasso "can self-fund any seat he chooses to run for."
• Shaw Group CEO Jim Bernhard (D): The head of one of two Fortune 500 companies based in LA and the former chair of the State Party thought about a bid for Sen in '04, has been "steadily getting more and more involved in politics." Some are speculating he may hold future ambitions.
• State Rep. Jolila Jefferson (D): The daughter of Rep. Jefferson, she wants to run for Congress, but her name may be tainted. As a freshman State Rep., she hasn't assumed any powerful positions yet, and "a lot of her future depends on how her dad comes out" of his recent legal troubles.
• Baton Rouge Mayor Kip Holden (D): The first black mayor of the city, Holden knocked of a GOP incumbent in an area Bush carried easily. "If he" had ambitions, "that would be a good thing."
• Atty Marjorie McKeithen (D): The granddaughter of ex-Gov. John McKeithen (D) and daughter of Sec/State Fox McKeithen, who passed away in '05, Marjorie almost knocked off Rep. Richard Baker (R) in LA 06 in '98. "She's somebody that's always on the" Dem "radar as a potential winner," and she may run to replace her father in the Sec/State's office.

Posted at 04:37 PM

Comments

This all depends on who's doing the voting. Because of the hurricane the voting population has changed.

What is going on with voting rights for displaced hurricane victims? Do they vote in their current location? Are they going to vote absentee in Louisiana? If so, how will that actually operate? Is there outreach to all the poor people or do we just assume that they won't vote?

b | 02.01.06 11:59 AM

Post a comment