January 30, 2006
The Futures Market: Kentucky
A red state, through and through. Right? Well, not really. After a rocky first term, many politicos in KY don't think Gov. Ernie Fletcher (R) will run for re-election. If he does, he's toast -- if not in the primary, then in the general. GOPers have a strong bench, especially in KY 03, so when Rep. Anne Northrup (R) retires, the NRCC will have a good shot at staving off the DCCC, which has salavated over that seat for a long time. Dems have candidates who seem to need a little extra encouragement to jump into the races that are supposed to be theirs to lose, but if they do, the state might become a little more even across the board. [REID WILSON]
The stars we've been watching since '03:
Louisville Metro Councilmember Ellen Call (R): "I think she's got the talent" to move up. "Very politically savvy" runs a side business consulting for judicial candidates. May end up running for Rep. Northrup's (R) KY 03 seat when she retires.
Lobbyist/atty Scott Crosby (R): A former Lexington-Fayette City Councilmember, after losing a mayoral bid, Crosby "dropped off the political scene."
Ag Commiss. Richie Farmer (R): An ex-UK basketball star, several sources said that any ambitions Farmer harbors may have to wait until he repairs his reputation after a rough first term. Some speculate that he may not run for re-election.
Sec/State Trey Grayson (R): First elected in '03, Grayson is "absolutely" on the list of up-and-coming Kentuckians. He's a "huge star," "one of the best young politicians in the state," and has "never really stopped campaigning." Many think he could run for Gov in the future.
State Sen. Brett Guthrie (R): Running for re-election, but "others make the list before him." Would be a frontrunner for Rep. Ron Lewis' (R) KY 02 seat when he retires.
State Sen. Damon Thayer (R): The former Vice Chair of the KY GOP, "without a doubt" a rising star. In his freshman term, he already chairs the State and Local Gov't Cmte and has taken control of the counties he represents.
Treas. Jonathon Miller (D): After two terms as the popular state treasurer, some think Miller may run for Gov or Mayor of Lexington. However, others believe he'll serve in some capacity with the pres. bid of Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN), and that he's "not interested in playing musical chairs" with statewide offices.
Jefferson Co./Lexington Councilmember David Tandy (D): Recently elected Vice Chair of the council's maj caucus, "a big stride up" the ladder. He also serves as the KY Dem Treasurer.
State Rep. Tommy Thompson (D): After running for LG on a losing primary ticket in '03, he's "done a good job as a legislator," but that may be where his career ends.
State Rep. Susan Westrom (D): After an unsuccessful stint as state Dem chair when she "wilted under the spotlight," her star is "fading." However, she remains popular in her slightly GOP district.
And the stars to watch in the future:
State Rep. Jim Decesare (R): The former TV reporter knocked off the incumbent House Ag Cmte chair, and though he will be targeted by Dems this year, Decesare may have a bright future in the party.
Scott Jennings (R): The deputy WH Political Dir. at just 28 years old. Whether he runs for Congressional or Statewide office, he's got a solid future in KY politics. He's "at the top of my list."
State Rep. Steven Rudy (R): The 27-year-old beat an incumbent in a district in which Dems held a better than 7-1 advantage. He owns a feed supply company in a very rural district.
Metro Councilman Kelly Downard (R): The former City Council pres. is now running for mayor of Louisville, and while it's "going to be an uphill battle" against a popular Dem incumbent, he's put together a good race.
Louisville Metro Councilmember Julie Rocky (R): The ex-Northrup staffer may run for Northrup's seat when she retires.
AG Greg Stumbo (D): After moving up from State Rep, Stumbo headed the investigation into Gov. Ernie Fletcher's (R) hiring practices. "Ernie Fletcher's political career ended with this investigation," and Stumbo "has given" Dems "a chance to elect a" Gov. While Fletcher's staff accuses Stumbo of having designs on the Gov mansion, Dem insiders don't believe he'll make a run in '07.
State Rep. Mike Weaver (D): The Vietnam vet is running against Rep. Ron Lewis (R) in KY 02 and is touted by Dems throughout the state as having a good chance of knocking off the incumbent.
Kenton Co. Dem Chair Kathy Groob (D): The ex-GOPer narrowly lost a State Sen race in '04. She's "an articulate spokesperson and has a future in our party."
Henderson Co. Judge Sandy Lee Watkins (D): A four-term judge and "an incredible manager of county" gov't. He's considered a leader among county officials statewide and will be "a contender" for statewide office in the future.
Atty Mickey McGuire (D): General Counsel of the KY Dems. Some Dems are trying to entice him into a Court of Appeals race in '06, and if he makes the run, he could have a future in higher office.
Posted at 04:15 PM
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