February 28, 2006

Featured Golf Getaway Guest: John Boehner

Remember this Connie Mack fundraiser we told you about?

A weekend getaway in beautiful Naples to benefit the FL GOPer's re-election account. $5000 per PAC. $1000 per person. Golf galore. Accomodations at the Ritz-Carlton. March 31 -- April 2.

An updated invitation we were sent promises that Rep. John Boehner (R-OH), the new majority leader, will attend as a special guest.

Posted 02.28.06 09:48 PM | Comments (3)

Remember The Bush Media Blitz?

Well, with the Olympics over, Pres. Bush is picking up his media tour where it left off. Some highlights from his interview with ABC News' Elizabeth Vargas that's airing tonight and tomorrow on ABC.

Bush on ports doing something he rarely does, that is talk about himself in the 3rd person: "If I pick up my newspaper and see, you know, 'Bush turning over ports to terrorist nations,' I would be concerned, and I must confess, that was kind of the first blush. ... And, and so two lessons from this. One is, obviously, Congress should have had a better heads up, and secondly, that the explanation to the American people must be done in a way that, you know, lays out the facts and doesn't frighten people.

Vargas kept pressing Bush on whether the deal could be scuttled. Vargas: "I guess I just want to know if you're open to the possibility of this deal not happening, if that is an option here."

Bush: "You know, it -- and the only way it won't happen is if there is a true security threat to the United States of America."

More after the jump. (including an extensive Cheney update)

Here's an interesting legacy question.

Vargas: "If when you leave the Oval Office, the White House, Osama bin Laden is still at large, will you consider that a failure?"

Bush: "... Of course, we'd like to bring him to justice, and we'll stay up -- you know, the only thing I can tell the American people, so long as I'm the President, we'll stay on the hunt and we'll use resources and power and influence to convince others to join us on the hunt as well. And, you know, I'm an optimistic person. I believe we will bring him to justice."

The interview closed with a question about the potential new South Dakota anti-abortion law.

Vargas: "Just a few days ago, the legislature in South Dakota passed the most restrictive abortion law in this country with the intention, they say, of getting that all the way to the Supreme Court. They would like the Supreme Court to overturn Roe v. Wade. Will your administration file a friend of the court brief on that?"

Bush: "I haven't paid attention to that, to this particular issue you're talking about. I can tell you I will put people on the Court without a litmus test. In other words, I haven't said to these judges, you know, 'Give me your opinion on this case if it would be coming your way.' And, you know, their job is to strictly interpret the Constitution. So I am not going to prejudge how the Supreme Court is going to judge a particular issue.

Vargas: "This law would outlaw abortion except when a mother's life was at stake. The life was at stake, not health. Would you support that kind of law being the law of the land?"

Bush: "Well, that, of course, is a state law, but my position has always been three exceptions: rape, incest, and the life of the mother."

Vargas: "Rape and incest you would include?"

Bush: "Yeah."

Vargas: "What about health?"

Bush: "Well, health is, you know, the life of the mother is how I view health."

Vargas: "So you would lump that together. It doesn't have to be she's going to die if she doesn't get this abortion."

Bush: "No. I said life of the mother, and health is a very vague term, but my position has been clear on that ever since I started running for office."

Here's the most detail Bush has gotten into re: Cheney's shooting.

Bush: "He's a strong fellow. He's a steady person, but no question that he was affected by it. He came in the Oval here, just he and I, and I said 'Dick, this got you didn't it?' And he said, 'It sure did.' I said, 'Well, if you feel like it, you oughtta share it with the American people.' And he did, he did a good job of talking about the, the pain he felt. And he was greatly relieved when he talked to Harry [Whittington], and found out Harry was going to be alright. You know, because first it looked like he was going to be alright, then he had the medical setback, and of course that, got Dick's attention in a big way. ... You know, all of us have got to learn to adjust, and, you know, particularly in this line of work, everything you do is public, everybody knows about it, and, uh, he's a thoughtful sensitive guy. And I, I know that people may not think that about Dick Cheney, but he is a very decent thoughtful person, and uh, he's from the West, kinda the old school you know, where you don't wear your emotions on your sleeve, but in this instance he did. And a lot of people saw it. And I thought, it was really good of him to get up and explain to people what he felt like ... so ..."

Vargas: "And just because we are on the topic of the Vice President ..."

Bush: "OK."

Vargas: "Are you committed to keeping him as your vice president?"

Bush: "Absolutely."

Vargas:"Until the end of your term?"

Bush: "Sure. He's a friend. He's got good opinions and good advice. Sometimes I accept his advice, sometimes I don't. But when I make up my mind, he's a strong supporter. And, that's what's important about having an administration of people of character and people who are willing to come in here and say, "From my experience," or people say, "My point of view is this." And I need to have different voices and different opinions and different emotions as I sort through some complex problems and make decisions. What I expect is people to give me honest advice, fair appraisal and then when I make up my mind it's yes sir Mr. President. And that's how our administration works. And Dick Cheney's a valuable part of that administration."

Posted 02.28.06 06:31 PM | Comments (1)

Will This Catch On?

Check out how Barack Obama weaved health care into energy into foreign policy today in a speech he gave to the Governor's Ethanol Coalition in DC. From his prepared remarks, Obama:

So here's the deal we can make with the auto companies. It's a piece of legislation I introduced called "Health Care for Hybrids," and it would allow the federal government to pick up part of the tab for the auto companies' retiree health care costs. In exchange, the auto companies would then use some of that savings to build and invest in more fuel-efficient cars. It's a win-win proposal for the industry -- their retirees will be taken care of, they'll save money on health care, and they’ll be free to invest in the kind of fuel-efficient cars that are the key to their competitive future.

Obama began his speech linking energy independence with the war in Iraq. Will other Dems (particularly those running for WH '08) borrow this idea? This seems like a classic new Dem-old Dem morphing of policy that can keep the entire party happy. [CHUCK TODD]

Posted 02.28.06 06:11 PM | Comments (0)

IA GOP Says Vilsack's PAC Violated IA Law

Iowa Republicans say a campaign account connected to IA Gov. Tom Vilsack's '04 re-election bid ran afoul of state campaign finance laws by giving $50,000 to Vilsack's political action committee last year.

In a complaint filed today with the state's ethics and campaign disclosure board, Iowa Republican Party director Cullen Sheehan contends that state law forbids campaigns from transferring money to any account that benefits an office-holder personally.

Sheehan argues that Vilsack allegedly uses his Heartland PAC "to travel all over the country for personal benefit."

"Money was contributed to his campaign committee with the intention that he would use it to get re-elected in Iowa, instead he is using this money to increase his visibility nationally," Sheehan said in a statement.

The Republican allegations come a week after state Dems accused Rep. Jim Nussle (R-IA), of improperly using his old federal campaign account to further his gubernatorial bid. [MARC AMBINDER]

At issue for Vilsack are two $25K in checks written to Heartland PAC, which Vilsack's advisers registered with the Internal Revenue Service as a non-federal account designed to help elect Democratic governors. The PAC does not contribute to races involving candidates for the U.S. Senate or House and therefore can avoid federal campaign finance laws that limit the size of contributions.

Charles Smithson, the executive director of Iowa's campaign disclosure board, declined via e-mail to comment on GOP's filing. But he did discuss, in general terms, what the law generally permits.

Iowa state law says that money raised for a campaign committee can be used for either "campaign purposes, educational and other expenses associated with the duties of office, or constituency services."

That broad definition was fleshed out by the Iowa elections board into a laundry list of permissible activities.

"So if something is not mentioned, campaign funds cannot be used for that purpose," Smithson says.

PACs are not mentioned, and so the state does "not allow use of candidate campaign funds to be given to [PACs} because those entities are not listed as a permissible recipient," he says.

Complaints about improper contributions generally trigger an examination of the benefiting account. In this case, that would be Vilsack's PAC.

"Part of the analysis would be, what does the 527 do and what relation does it have to the contributor," Smithson said.

An aide said the PAC has previously consulted with the ethics board to make sure all of its activities are above board.

One expense cited by Republicans was the PAC's payment of more than $70K to the Dewey Square Group in '05. The firm employs several Vilsack advisers who travel with him when he is out of IA and who coordinate his the PAC's political program.

Nearly every potential presidential candidate chairs a leadership PAC. The PACs seek donations and contribute to other candidates, collecting chits that come in handy years later.

Most PACs define their activity broadly enough; "helping elect Democrats" allows for a candidate to donate computers to, say, the NH state party. The FEC prohibits PACs from spending money solely to further the political ambitions of their chairs.

Vilsack's PAC is not registered with the FEC because it does not contribute to federal races.

Posted 02.28.06 05:34 PM | Comments (0)

Santorum Lobbies On Reform

During today's Sen Rules Cmte markup of Cmte chair Trent Lott's (R-MS) lobbying overhaul bill, Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA) may have helped his re-election chances while not irritating his colleagues too much.

Santorum offered four amendments to the bill, reports CongressDailyPM. Amendments to require senators to disclose with whom they are negotiating future employment deals and to restrict family members of senators from lobbying their relatives passed, but two amendments that would have given the bill some serious teeth -- measures to extend the lobbying moratorium from one year to two years and to require disclosure of flights taken on corporate jets, as well as sharing a portion of the costs of those flights -- failed by voice votes.

Santorum's effort is smart politics. With the current less-than-stellar reputation of lobbyists in DC and a minor buzz about the ethics surrounding both Santorum's and Bob Casey's (D) mortgages, being able to brag about his efforts at "real" lobbying reform in a debate -- even if the Senate fails to act on any of his amendments -- will put some much-needed distance between him and the troubled GOP caucus in DC.

Other provisions of note in the bill include a 60-vote point of order requirement against conference report provisions that were not included in either the House or the Senate version of a bill, an amendment added by Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA), revocation of floor priviliges for former members and a requirement that any privately-funded travel is subject to both pre-approval and post-return review by the Ethics Cmte.

The latter two provisions were included in Lott's original version of the bill. Sen. Daniel Inouye (D-HI) successfully stripped a provision that would have required Native American tribes from having to report contributions to fed candidates to the FEC. {REID WILSON]

Posted 02.28.06 05:08 PM | Comments (5)

House Race Hotline Update: Ad Surfing In San Diego

From House Race Hotline:

In the 16-candidate GOP field for the CA 50 special, it's a tale of rich outsiders versus experienced insiders. But it's the obscure no-names who are quickly getting their names out through extensive and expensive ad blitzes.

One of the latest entries in the race, Eric Roach, is a high-tech businessman who has recently blanketed San Diego airwaves with two TV ads. He already surpassed millionaire businessman Alan Uke, who tossed money into an early TV buy. Richard Earnest, who's largely self-financing, also announced a costly TV/radio buy today.

Despite holding their firepower until later, the politically experienced candidates are seen as the favorites. Ex-Rep. Brian Bilbray is touting his anti-immigration bona fides -- a potent issue in the district. State Sen. Bill Morrow and Howard Kaloogian have credibility with movement conservatives. And with the cap on individual donations raised (because of all the well-financed GOPers) Dems are hoping Francine Busby can add to her already sizable warchest in preparation for a runoff. Money means a lot, especially in a special election. But political connections may matter most.
[JOSH KRAUSHAAR]

The Hotline's Top 25 House Races

For more about how you can get House Race Hotline, click here.

Posted 02.28.06 03:13 PM | Comments (0)

In The Weeds: Dems Dip Into Coordinated Allowance For McCaskill

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) in December covered payroll and insurance expenses for staffers working to elect MO SEN candidate Claire McCaskill .

The $24K expenditure means absolutely nothing to MO voters and suggests very little to no more than a few dozen campaign professionals in DC and MO.

A DSCC spokesman called the payments irrelevant and significance-free.

Federal campaign finance law permits party committees to spend, in the case of Missouri, approximately $637K on coordinated expenditures over the course of the campaign. (The formula, for the record, is the state's voting age population, multiplied by two cents and titrated each cycle for federal cost of living adjustments.)

So far, the DSCC has spent about $94K towards that sum.

Republican researchers pouring over McCaskill's year-end FEC filing could not find an entry showing that any of the campaign's staff of eleven had been paid in December. Disbursements to a New York-based paycheck company were recorded through the end of November, only.

The GOPers discovered that that the DSCC, on Dec. 22, paid $24,107 to that paycheck company and listed McCaskill as benefiting from the expense.

The NRSC did not pick up campaign salaries for any of its candidates and the DSCC did not cover the same expenses for any other Senate campaign.

That leads the NRSC to conclude that, in the words of a spokesman there, the DSCC "clearly" was doing its best to make sure that McCaskill ended the year with as much cash on hand as possible.

According to that theory, the higher the number -- even if inflated by a paltry $24K -- the more favorably the small circle of Washington's elite political analysts would treat the health of McCaskill's campaign.

"We've seen Claire McCaskill follow the lead of liberal national Democrats on important issues before; now we see why," said Brian Walton, an NRSC spokesman.

The DSCC did not want to wade into the details. But they noted that the NRSC had, in fact, dipped into its coordinated expense allowance last summer for Maryland, paying more than $4K worth of expenses for MD Sen candidate Michael Steele.

Says Dan Ronayne, another NRSC spokesman: "It's a ridiculous stretch not see a difference between helping a campaign off the ground versus an attempt to deceive the political class with a higher cash on hand."

National committees routinely use the coordinated money to run television advertisements close to the election and to cover costs that the campaign cannot. And from that perspective, the DSCC, having kept more than $25M to spend nationwide on Senate campaigns, is in much better shape than the NRSC. [MARC AMBINDER]

Posted 02.28.06 03:11 PM | Comments (0)

Allen, Romney And McCain on the South Dakota Abortion Ban

WH Press Secretary Scott McClellan says Pres. Bush would not support the bill unless it contained exceptions for rape, incest and the life of the mother. Of the three potential '08 GOP candidates below, Sen. John McCain's view is closest to Bush's.

Sen. George Allen's CoS, Dick Wadhams, tells the Hotline that "Sen. Allen has consistently supported the rights of the people in their states to pass laws which reflect their views and values."

MA Gov. Mitt Romney has yet to be asked about the SD ban. Spokesperson Julie Teer: "If Governor Romney were the Governor of South Dakota he would sign it. The Governor believes that states should have the right to be pro-life if that is the will of the people."

According to a spokesperson, McCain "would have signed the legislation, but would also take the appropriate steps under state law -- in whatever state -- to ensure that the exceptions of rape, incest or life of the mother were included." [MARC AMBINDER]

Posted 02.28.06 01:17 PM | Comments (16)

Mea Culpa: Unions And Turnout

Appearing at an AFL-CIO press conference to unveil its '06 political gameplan, AFSCME President and longtime Dem political strategist Gerald McEntee admitted yesterday afternoon that "progressives learned a hard lesson" in the '04 cycle: relying on paid turnout efforts is a recipe for failure.

Without being asked, McEntee, who also chairs the AFL's political cmte, stated bluntly that the millions of dollars Dems and liberals put into the 527s for GOTV in '04 were ineffective in the face of the GOP's volunteer effort. Or, as McEntee put it, the Dems' "stranger-to-stranger" ground game was "trounced" by the GOP's "neighbor-to-neighbor strategy."

McEntee is one of the brightest political minds in the labor movement and is credited with delivering Bill Clinton his first nat'l labor endorsement in '92. McEntee also engineered an early AFSCME endorsement for Howard Dean in '04. But he also was deeply engaged in the collective union/527 GOTV effort for John Kerry and the Dems in '04.

That he would, at the outset of the '06 cycle, so publicly and candidly admit their '04 grass-roots and strategic failure is striking. It is especially so in light of the post-election comments made by many involved with the 527s in '04. We're thinking of folks like ACT's Steve Rosenthal, himself an ex-AFL political director, who spent so much time praising their ground game as super-but-just-short-in-Ohio.

The AFL, which is holding its winter executive meeting at the luxurious Hotel Del Coronado just outside San Diego, also said it is committed to spending $40M on "education and mobilization" of its members this cycle, the most it has ever spent on a mid-term election. These funds will target GOV and SEN races in 21 states, keying particularly on those states that have both competitive races and significant union membership -- CA, FL, IA, MI, MN, NY, OH and PA. AFL political director Karen Ackerman said also that they will play in as many as 40 different House races across the country. Ackerman added that the unions which withdrew from the nat'l AFL will be allowed to join their effort at the state and local level.

Although AFL-CIO president John Sweeney made clear in his statement that they would aid "pro-worker" candidates and not just Dems, he admitted that he hoped the vast majority of the endorsements would be for Dems. And when asked which pro-worker GOPers they may back, Ackerman deflected the decision as being made at the local level. Similarly, she also made clear that the nat'l AFL had little interest in getting involved in primary contests -- with one exception.

All of organized labor, Ackerman said, was behind ex-Rep. Ciro Rodriguez (D) in his bid to reclaim TX 28 from Rep. Henry Cuellar (D). Cuellar has raised the ire of labor and liberals for his vote in support of CAFTA and backing of other business-friendly measures. Asked about payback for the other so-called "CAFTA 15," Sweeney noted that while the nat'l AFL would not directly weigh in, that did not necessarily mean that these wayward Dems would not "be punished." [JONATHAN MARTIN]

Posted 02.28.06 10:34 AM | Comments (0)

Hotline Futures Market: New Hampshire

What's the Hotline Futures Market? It's our exclusive look at the up-and-comers in every party in every state. You won't a list like this anywhere else. If you've missed a state, check out our archives.

After winning 7 of 8 special elections since the '04 cycle ended, Dems are upbeat about their chances in the State Legislature, and some on both sides feel the state is trending blue. But down almost 100 seats in a 400-seat state house, Dems who actually believe control is within reach may have had a little too much Kool Aid to drink. Both sides have strong female candidates waiting in the wings for whom everyone is excited, and up-and-coming mayors in each party are generating buzz as well. [REID WILSON]

The stars we've been watching since '03:

• Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta (R): Knocked off incumbent Mayor Baines and is still in his early 30s. As mayor of the state's biggest city, "how can he not be a rising star?" Some think he'd do best to focus on his '07 re-election bid, but if he wins re-election, he'll be a force throughout the state.
• State Rep. Jim Coburn (R): "He's assembling his team" to make an '06 Gov bid and says he's willing to dump upwards of $1M into his race.
• State Sen. Chuck Morse (R): The chair of the Sen Budget Cmte, "he doesn't deny he has higher ambitions" and is a possible candidate for Gov in '06.
• AG Kelly Ayotte (R): Appointed to her position by a Dem gov after serving as ex-Gov. Craig Benson's (R) legal counsel, she was named one of NH's 40 young stars by NH Magazine. A pro-choicer in this fiercely libertarian state, she defended NH's parental notification bill in front of SCOTUS.
• House Min Leader Jim Craig (D): Craig is pondering a bid against Rep. Jeb Bradley (R) in NH 01. The Manchester atty comes from a political family -- his father was also House Min Leader -- and is "very well known and very well liked" within the party. Seen as less partisan as some of his predecessors, which has earned him widespread respect.
• Gov. Lynch Dep CoS Mike Vlacich (D): A former staffer of Rep. Jeanne Shaheen and an ex-NH Dem Exec. Dir., "it's only a few more years before he decides to run for something himself."
• State Sen. Maggie Hassan (D): In her first term, "a lot of people have been mentioning her as future candidate" for Gov. "Somebody who would definitely run for other seats." One source says she's "been begged to run for every office under the sun" and will one day "pick her turn with the entire party behind her."
• Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand (D): After serving as press sec. to a losing Gov candidate in '02, he's now mayor of the state's biggest Dem-performing city. With experience in campaigns and seen as "a good" gov't "policy wonk," he "could be running for" Gov by '08.

Posted 02.28.06 09:23 AM | Comments (2)

February 27, 2006

RGA To Raise Record Sum Tonight

There are dueling fundraisers tonight for the two national gubernatorial soft money entities -- the RGA and the DGA.

We hear that the RGA will raise at least $9.6 million at their "America's Majority Celebration: A Tribute to Presidential Leadership."

Pres. Bush is the featured speaker. That's a one-night record for the RGA. MA Gov. Mitt Romney gets to introduce the president.

The Dems will take in millions at their Taste of America gala at the Capital Hilton.

Posted 02.27.06 05:17 PM | Comments (0)

After Jack

Such a story may have meant nothing B.J. (Before Jack), but in a post-Abramoff era we were struck by this item in yesterday's Birmingham News about how AL Gov. Bob Riley (R) is spending part of his time at this week's NGA confab in DC.

Yup, the former 3-term House member is being feted by his old House pals Hastert, Boehner and Blunt. Also check out who from K St. is putting the event on.

Now perhaps even post-Jack, a Rep-turned-Gov up for re-election having a member and lobbyist-laden funder at a DC trade assoc may not merit a mention, but Riley has some, well, Abramoff issues.

Abramoff partner-in-crime Michael Scanlon was Riley's congressional press secretary in the 90s. Later, Scanlon's outfit, Capitol Campaign Strategies, gave $500K to the RGA in October of '02, which in turn transferred nearly $2.5M to a soft-money arm of the RNC designed to aid state elections. That same month Riley received $600K from the cmte and the AL GOP took another $600K.

It was during this same time period, of course, that Scanlon and Abramoff were raking in cash from tribes.

Riley, who does not accept gambling money, maintains that he did not know the source of the RGA money. But the fact remains that the '02 AL GOV race between Riley and then-Gov. Don Siegelman (D) was fought in large measure over whether AL would join its neighbors in GA and TN in instituting a state lottery. Siegelman was for it, Riley against. And joining Riley in opposing an AL lottery were the MS-based Choctaws and their man in Washington, DC -- Mike Scanlon. The tribe feared a loss of business in their two casinos just outside of Philadelphia, MS -- about 30 miles from the AL state line.

Guilt by association? Perhaps. But Riley and the AL GOP -- whose chair just recently resigned from the MS-based lobbying firm that now represents the Choctaws -- must not be sweating Roy Moore (R), LG Lucy Baxley (D), or Siegleman if they are having this kinda event.

Or perhaps they are -- tickets go for $1K a pop. Per individual or PAC, that is. [JONATHAN MARTIN]

Posted 02.27.06 05:04 PM | Comments (3)

Schwarzenneger Opponents On The Air

Just days after Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's much-hyped address at the state Republican convention, and his national TV face-time on "Meet The Press" yesterday, his Dem rivals seek to reclaim some of the spotlight by announcing the first major market TV ad buys of the season.

For Treas. Phil Angelides (D), it's his first TV buy, period. For Cont. Steve Westly (D), it's his first foray into the major markets after spending some money in smaller markets. His camp now says they're up in 80% of the state.

The tag line to Angelides' ad reaffirms what has been a theme for him thus far, that he "stood up to Arnold." He also promotes the two most prominent endorsements in the race thus far -- Sens. Dianne Feinstein and Barbara Boxer. Boxer speaks in the ad. Westly's ad is the same as the one he's run in the smaller markets, and makes no mention of the Governator. It leads by touting Westly's background at eBay and promises "a different kind of campaign."

Recent polling shows that Schwarzenegger still hasn't fully recovered from his drubbing in the special election last November. But some have speculated that the Dems let too much time pass to fully take advantage, giving Schwarzenegger the time he needed to plot his political comeback. Perhaps hitting the air together provides a one-two punch that CA Dems need to get some momentum back. [MIKE MEMOLI]

Posted 02.27.06 04:45 PM | Comments (0)

More SRLC Speakers

More Southern Republican Leadership Conference confirmed speakers:

TX Gov. Rick Perry, Rep. Zach Wamp (TN), and Ex-Rep J.C. Watts are the latest. Be there, in Memphis, beginning on March 9.

More than 1,400 Republicans from 26 states have registered to participate.

The Hotline is conducting an '08 presidential preference straw poll.

Posted 02.27.06 04:31 PM | Comments (0)

Newt Scores Big IA Dinner

Ex-Rep. Newt Gingrich has been asked to host the '06 Iowa Republican Party Lincoln Day dinner in April.

Individual tickets to the 4/29 event cost $100 a pop; donors who pay $1000 or more get invited to a special reception with Gingrich before the main meal.

Sean Hannity will also be on hand.

The IA GOP splits up its Lincoln and Reagan dinner dinners -- its two major fundraising events of the year. In October, Sen. Maj. Leader Bill Frist hosted the Reagan dinner.

Posted 02.27.06 12:17 PM | Comments (0)

National Journal Vote Ratings: The '08 Hopefuls

http://nationaljournal.com/voteratings/

For the Republicans, the top-line is that, despite rumors to the contrary, Sen. George Allen isn't a recent convert to conservatism. For Democrats, Evan Bayh is the least liberal of the bunch, according to the criteria.

Ranked in order of highest to lowest lifetime conservative compositive score

• Sen. Sam Brownback (R-KS): '05: 79.8 Lifetime: 82.2


• Sen. George Allen: (R-VA) '05: 85.8 Lifetime: 79.7


• Sen. Bill Frist (R-TN): '05: 81.5 Lifetime: 77.6


• Sen. John McCain (R-AZ): '05: 59.2 Lifetime: 72.5


• Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-NE): '05: 69.3 Lifetime: 71.5

• Sen. John Kerry (D-MA): '05: 86.7 Lifetime: 85.7


• Sen. Russ Feingold: (D-WI): '05: 85.2 Lifetime: 80.6


• Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY): '05: 79.8 Lifetime: 80.5


• Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE): '05: 80.2 Lifetime: 76.8


• Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN): '05: 70.7 Lifetime: 62.3

Posted 02.27.06 11:24 AM

What You Missed On The Sunday Shows

A new, free Hotline feature:

Each Monday, Hotline TV editor Emily Goodin will pack five hours of Sunday show news and analysis into one digestible post.

That's all the news, sound bites, presidential questions, scoops and spin. We watch 'em all so you can watch Project Runway re-runs!

Expect it online by 9:00 am ET.

Port authority talk dominated the Sunday shows. Rep. Peter King (R-NY) and Sen. John Warner (R-VA) were on "Meet the Press." King praised the forthcoming investigation into the deal: "It's the type of investigation that should have been conducted, quite frankly, when this process was under way. It shouldn't be an add-on. But now that it is, I think it will be very positive step." And he noted the investigation could result in "a real possibility at the end of this process to have U.S. officials monitoring it on a regular basis."

Warner was on more defensive of the deal: "We cannot treat this company as a second-class citizen. In the past, as the Congress mentioned, there were problems, but since 9/11 they've been a full partner in the war on terrorism. We as the United States are dependent on countries like the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, all of them there, to give us the support to fight this war on terrorism. We cannot mess this deal up." Although King countered: "We can't be comparing Tony Blair to the emir of Dubai" ("Meet the Press," NBC, 2/26).

NSA Stephen Hadley was on "Face the Nation" to discuss the issue. After he was on, Sens. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) and Chuck Schumer (D-NY) were on to talk about it. Hadley said Pres. Bush would stand by his veto threat: "The companies are working with the Congress now to try and identify a mechanism to do that. We would support that, because we think we do need the time and the opportunity, so long as the president's red line is respected that we don't have a vote, preemptory vote blocking the transaction."

Graham remained critical of the admin.: "They were incredibly politically tone deaf. They paid a price. And let's get this right. I am not against the UAE. They may be the right company at the right time but this process has been flawed from the beginning and it needs to be fixed. And we need a 45-day investigation. I hope we don't have to vote to get it. But if we do, I will vote for it." Schumer noted "that whatever happens in this United Arab Emirates deal, if we get more focus on port security, which some of us have been trying to do in the Congress for years, some good will come out of this" ("Face the Nation," CBS, 2/26).

Sens. John McCain (R-AZ) and Carl Levin (D-MI) were on "This Week," where McCain continued his defense of the admin. Asked if he colleagues were "demagoguing" the issue, McCain: "No, I think they're very concerned. I don't want to accuse them of demagoguery. But I think that our priorities this week have been misplaced. ... Could I just remind you, 700 United States ships, warships have visited Dubai. They have an airfield there that we are using for missions into Afghanistan and to Iraq. ... I think are perhaps more important than whether a country that's freer than China is should have control of some of our terminals. ... Dubai since 9/11 has been a good ally. Before 9/11, they were not. We all know that."

McCain also hinted that Dubai does more to help than advertised post-9/11: "In fact, I've been told -- and I can't repeat it on this program because it's second- and third-hand -- that there's been other ways that they've also been very helpful." Asked about Sen. Hillary Clinton's (D-NY) plan to not allow any foreign management of ports: "Does that mean the British are not allowed? ... I think obviously that this has to be looked at a case-by-case basis. And I would emphasize again, they are in charge of terminals."

Levin was on after McCain and was not as supportive. Asked if he would be satisified with the 45-day review: "Only if the deal doesn't go through until that 45-day review is completed. And that's what's very squishy right now." As for talk of bias against Dubai, Levin: "This is not a matter of which country. It's a matter of whether any country wanting to take over an asset, which is as sensitive as our port facilities, has a solid record of fighting terrorism over a long period of time" ("This Week," ABC, 2/26).

WH Homeland Security Adviser Fran Townsend was on "Fox News Sunday," followed by Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE) and Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA). As for the review process, Townsend noted: "We haven't received a request yet from the company. There are ongoing discussions. We'll have to see what that letter or what that request would include. But the answer is as we go up to Congress, as we talk to people about the facts of the deal, we believe more people will be comfortable with it as they learn the facts." More: "We, the government, have no mechanism, having completed our review, to reopen it. The only thing that could cause it to be reopened would be a request from the company itself. We can't generate that. That's really up to the company."

She also noted that Bush found out about the deal from WH CoS Andy Card: "The president found out on February 16th from Andy Card." FNC's Wallace asked: "That's not what Scott McClellan said. He said he learned about it from the media." Townsend: "Well, I can tell you, having spoken with Andy Card, that he informed the president on February 16th. ... These deals go through and are reviewed all the time. There have been 65 last year. Rarely do they make it to the president."

Biden was on after her and asked if there was a bias: "The fact of the matter is that there are some people -- I'm sure this is anti-Arab bashing. I'm sure that's true.But the fact, as I've said before, I've been dealing with the Foreign Military Sales Act for the last I don't know how many years of my career. You don't sell the same aircraft to Saudi Arabia, our great ally, that you do to England or to France or to a NATO country. So there's always been this distinction."

Hadley was also on "Late Edition," as were Sens. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) and Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX). Hadley said of port security: "Remember, port security doesn't start at our ports. It starts overseas with the cooperations of countries and companies operating ports overseas to make sure that cargo containers and other things heading our way are safe. The first line of defense is overseas, and this company and this country have been very good allies in that process."

Asked if he would let Pakistan operate ports in the U.S., Hadley: "I'm saying if Pakistan wanted to operate ports in the United States, we would do exactly what was done in this case. We would get the agencies together. We would look at the applicable intelligence. We would have each of the agencies take a look. If there were national security concerns that were raised, we would deal with them. That's the process that we need to do. ... The test is not whether the acquiring country is an Arab country or not. The test is whether the acquiring country -- company and the company through which they would exercise control raises national security concerns. That's the test. That was the test that was applied in this case, and that would be the test that should be applied in every other case. It's the test that this Congress specified in the statute."

Hutchison was neither too supportive nor too critical: "I think it is important that we have the delay so that we can find out what the safeguards are. But I would go to the major issue of port security in our country." Asked if she would vote for the deal: "I don't know enough yet about it. And I think we need to know more about it." Feinstein has lots of questions: "I would like to know if this was run by the secretary of defense, the secretary of homeland security. I'm told they did not know this. I think the process was a secondary process. I think this should have been brought to the president earlier. And I'm really coming to question some of these Treasury Department, kind of, hidden review processes which really involve large questions of public policy" ("Late Edition," CNN, 2/26).

He's Not The Terminator, He's The Gipper

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R-CA) was also on "Meet." He was asked about the port issue: "California is not affected by that, which is good." NBC's Russert asked him: "13 or 14 container terminal operators at the Los Angeles Long Beach Port are foreign-owned: China, Japan, Taiwan, Singapore and Denmark, as you said. Are you concerned that China operates a port? In terms of security?" Schwarzenegger replied: "Well, we have the ultimate control over security. I mean, they occupy space. They lease space. They don't own it."

As to his own re-election, asked if he was concerned he'd get swept in an anti-GOP tide, Schwarzenegger: "Yes, you know, that's always a concern. ... It's election year, it's up to the people to judge and say did this man really improve the state. Remember the old Ronald Reagan line, when you say that you're better off now than you were four years ago? Well, you know, Californians are much better off today than we were four years ago." Asked if he'll run as a Bush GOPer, Schwarzenegger: "I will run as an Arnold Republican." On the special election: "It was worth the fight. ... Now did I do it the right way? Did I not make mistakes? Of course, I made mistakes. I think that I rushed it too much, I was too much in a hurry. But I mean, as you know, this is my style. I set certain goals, and I say this has to be done at that time, and I think that when you're in public service and when you are doing things in the political arena, you have to maybe take more time in nurturing those things along, and so maybe I rushed it too much."

Asked about ex-CA Dem Party Chair Bob Mulholland's comment that he's gone from pit bull to french poodle: "You want me to respond to that? I don't respond to Bob Mulholland. Trust me." On his poll standing: "Let me tell you something, that some people pay a lot of attention to polls. And I think that we all like to be liked and loved. ... The numbers that I pay more attention to are the numbers that we see when we see, for instance, the unbelievable decrease in the budget infrastructure deficit to 75 percent; to see an increase of 500,000 people getting jobs in California; to see the increase in revenues that we have; to see the increase of businesses that are coming."

Asked if he's spending too much state money: "No, it's invest, invest, invest." More: "The fact is that we've cut down the spending and we are paying down debt, and we're putting money in the rainy day fund, and we are now economically strong enough to build and rebuild California."

On fundraising: "I said I would never take money from unions, that I would never take money from Indian gaming tribes. I take money because you need to take money. The important thing here is, is when you take money that they buy into your philosophy and into your program, that you don't buy into theirs." On criticism from Warren Beatty: "I never respond to Warren because I know Warren for too long and I think it would be wrong, you know, to respond to that. I do my job and he should do his job. If he wants to get involved in politics, jump into the race" ("Meet the Press," NBC, 2/26).


This Could Be An Issue In A Couple of Years


McCain was asked about a SD bill that would ban all abortions except in life of the mother. Asked if he were gov, would he sign that bill, he stumbled a bit on the answer: "I don't know, because I don't know the technical -- my position has been consistently pro-life but rape, incest and the health of the mother has been my position. If that's in keeping with that, yes. But I don't know whether..." ABC's Stephanopoulos interupted him to ask: "It actually goes farther than that. If it does go farther, you wouldn't sign it?" McCain: "Not if -- my position has been clear for 20-some years" ("This Week," ABC, 2/26).


Meet Mitt


Romney faced a tough interview on "Fox News Sunday." He was asked by FNC's Wallace: "For people who don't know much about you, where do you stand on the political spectrum?" Romney: "Well, I'm a conservative Republican. It's kind of unusual to be in Massachusetts, the bluest state in America, and be a conservative Republican, but that's something that I fought for in my campaign, and people supported me. We have good conservative Democrats in Massachusetts, and I was able to pull some of them over to my side of the aisle."

On how he differs from Bush on Iraq: "I don't think we did an adequate job explaining to the American people all the reasons for entering Iraq. ... And yet I supported the president at the time that he entered into Iraq and believed that he had the kind of information he needed to have to make that decision."

There was also a strong exchange on his abortion views. Asked about his differing abortion opinions, Romney: "We had a major issue in Massachusetts, and it surrounded stem cell research. I spent a lot of time talking with people scientific in background as well as religious and spent a lot of time understanding when it was that as a society we needed to respect human life and came to the conclusion that it's time to be very clear on that, that when conception occurs that human life has begun. I'm not talking about religious definitions, but scientific definitions and that to respect human life, we have to do so from conception. And therefore, I indicated I am pro-life and will respect the rights of human life."

Wallace: "But I don't understand, Governor. I mean, the stem cell question, which often deals with the question of harvesting of eggs or fetuses to be used for stem cell -- that isn't why most women get abortions. I mean, there's a division there, isn't there?"


Romney: "Well, there is a division there, and I'm happy to talk about stem cell research."


Wallace: "Well, no, but I'm asking about abortion. I mean, the vast majority of women aren't getting an abortion so that they can sell their fetus."


Romney: "No, this is about when respect for life begins and when we as a society -- and I believe fundamentally in a society there has to be respect for human life. And when I ran for governor, I said very clearly I do not support abortion, I do not favor abortion, but I will maintain a moratorium on any change in the laws of Massachusetts relating to abortion."


Wallace: "But you did say, as I said in the quote, women should have the right to make their own choice. I guess the question I have is are you saying that you only came to the conclusion about when life begins -- this has been an issue for 30 years, 40 years -- in the last three years?"


Romney: "What I'm saying is that my position has evolved and it changed from where it was before. And I said -- and the time of the change came as we were involved in the discussion of stem cell research, and I said at that point I am pro-life. I've never used either title, pro-life or pro-choice, in the past. I said I don't favor abortion. I wouldn't change the laws as governor because I believe each state should have the right to make their own choice. But I'm very firmly pro-life."


Asked if his faith will be an issue: "I think people in this country want a person of faith to lead them as their governor, as their senator, as their president. I don't think most people care what brand of faith they have. And I don't believe that that's been an issue for me in my race for governor. It wasn't an issue, I believe, serious, for John Kennedy when he ran for president."


Asked about details of his faith: "I'm never going to get into a discussion about my personal beliefs and about particular doctrines of my church, and so forth. I'm very proud of my church. It was the church of my father, and his father, and his father before him. But what I can say is this. And I go back to a speech that Abraham Lincoln made when he was 28 years old, the Lyceum Address, when he said that America has a political religion and that people who are elected to office subscribe to this political religion, which is to place the oath of office, an oath to abide by a nation of laws and the Constitution, above all others. And there's no question that as I take the oath of office as governor, and have, that I make that my primary responsibility."


Asked about his low position in WH '08 polls: "I certainly don't intend to announce any plans at this point, so I don't have, you know, any willingness to respond to a hypothesis about my running. However, I can say that people who fall very low in the public opinion polls at this stage have emerged to be at the top of the pile."


Asked if he's running for VP: "Oh, I can't imagine anybody doing that. I've got a much better job. I love the job that I have. It's great being governor of Massachusetts. It's a great state. ... I'll keep the option open of running for national office, but I wouldn't get into something if I didn't plan on winning" ("Fox News Sunday," 2/26).


Other Topics


Iraq was also discussed on the Sunday circuit. Hadley seemed to downplay the situation: "It is a time of testing for Iraqis. There has been violence. Thankfully, the violence seems to be diminishing." More: "And our hope is ... that in this tragedy there actually is an opportunity where all the communities will decide that really it is in their mutual interest to avoid the violence, pull together and construct the kind of unity government that can move this country forward" ("Face the Nation," CBS, 2/26).


Warner and King also discussed the Iraq. Warner: "I do not think we should get involved in the civil war other than to give support to the Iraqi forces as they begin to put it down" ("Meet the Press," NBC, 2/26). McCain was also asked about Iraq: "Everything in this country we have learned over the last few years is two steps forward, one step back; two steps forward, one step back. We've got a long way to go. And any talk of troop withdrawals in my opinion would be foolish." But Levin argued: "We should not intervene in that kind of a civil war because we'll just make it worse, in my opinion" ("This Week," ABC, 2/26). Biden said of the situation in Iraq: "It's diminished my optimism" ("Fox News Sunday," 2/26). Hutchison: "I think that we have made great progress. This week was not a good week, very troubling. And we need to be as supportive as we can of the Iraqi politicians trying to set up that national unity government. It is slow, but we must be patient." Feinstein: "I think this is the most critical juncture we've had in Iraq. If this new government can't get itself together and if this sectarian violence continues, it's a step away from major civil war. ... The worst thing would be for the United States to get caught in the middle of a civil war" ("Late Edition," CNN, 2/26).


The "This Week" roundtable discussed the port issue but also noted its affects on the GOP. Washington Post's Dionne: "The really dangerous thing for the administration this week is Republicans running away like a herd of cattle and that the Republican party faces a very deep problem, it's a classic political problem. Individual Republicans now see that their interests may depend on separating from President Bush, but the more critical they are of him the bigger collective problem they have" (ABC, 2/26).


The "Fox News Sunday" roundtable also discussed the political fallout for the GOP. Washington Post's Connolly: "Tthese individuals have to run in November. And it's very clearly come down to their own political hides." Weekly Standard's Kristol: "The 45 days is to give cover to the idiots in Congress who jumped on this without knowing anything about it. It's not to give cover to the Bush administration. They're not going to change their mind" (2/26).

Posted 02.27.06 09:58 AM | Comments (2)

Negative Ads...In Israel

To start the week with an international flavor, here's a contrast ad broadcast by the Likud party in Istael.

It takes on acting Israeli PM Ehud Olmert, a member of the new (and leading) Kadima party, for refusing to accept responsibility for the violence that accompanied the ouster of Jews from settlements.

Those readers more adept at translating Hebrew are welcome to help us figure out the full script.

Posted 02.27.06 08:50 AM | Comments (3)

Reps. Harris And Goode And The Wade Indictment

What Wade Did
The Plea Agreement

The defense contractor who bribed ex-Rep. Randy "Duke" Cunningham (R) says he directed $80K in illegal campaign contributions to two members of Congress. A staffer for one of the members inserted a $9M provision that benefited MZM into an approps bill.

From the indictment: "His solution [to get around campaign finance laws] was to have his employees and their spouses make contributions to these two campaigns under their own names, then reimburse them -- a technique, known as "straw contributions" that is a felony under federal election law when the straw contributions amount to over ten thousand dollars. ... All in all, he made 39 different "straw" contributions, with 19 different employees or spouses. In order to maximize the impact of these contributions, Wade personally handed a number of the campaign contributions, in the form of personal checks from employees and their spouses, to one of the representatives."

Who might those members be?

Well, a San Diego Union-Tribune story from '05 suggests that Wade's employees were pressured to donate money to the campaigns of Cunningham, Rep. Katherine Harris (R-FL) and Rep. Virgil Goode (R-VA).

At FECINFO.com, we searched for all contributions given by MZM employees in '04.

We found several dozen --just like the indictment says -- totaling about $60K -- to Harris and Goode. This list does NOT include contributions that spouses of MZM employees made to the two. No other candidate -- not even Cunningham -- received nearly as much. The dates in the indictment concur with the dates of the illegal contributions.

The Wade plea agreement says that Wade did not inform the members that he was pressuring his employees to contribute to them and it's not at all clear whether the members are in any legal jeopardy.

BTW: here's who MZM's PAC contributed money to in recent cycles.

In '04
Cunningham, Randy "Duke" (R-CA) $6,000
Forbes, J Randy (R-VA) $5,000
Goode, Virgil H Jr (R-VA) $10,000
Harris, Katherine (R-FL) $10,000
Hunter, Duncan (R-CA) $1,000
Renzi, Rick (R-AZ) $2,000

In '06:
Goode, Virgil H Jr (R-VA) $5,000
Hunter, Duncan (R-CA) $2,500
Tiahrt, Todd (R-KS) $1,000
Wamp, Zach (R-TN) $2,000

Note: Goode was never a member of the defense approps subcommittee; an earlier version of this post said he was.[MARC AMBINDER]

Posted 02.27.06 08:38 AM | Comments (6)

February 25, 2006

More Ratings Facts: Flake's The Centrist's Centrist?

Posted 02.25.06 11:30 AM | Comments (0)

February 24, 2006

National Journal Vote Ratings: Cuellar... And The House

Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-TX) is the 13th least liberal Democrat in the House; on social issues, he was 60 percent more liberal than his colleagues; on economic issues, he scored a 53; on foreign policy issues, he scored a 55.

(Check out all House members ranked by liberal scores and conservative scores.)

On to the incumbent ratings for vulnerable GOP veterans: Rep. Marilyn Musgrave (CO) leads the pack, but who would have thought that Rep. Steve Chabot (O-OH) would be second?

CO 04: Rep. Marilyn Musgrave (R): more conservative than 90.8% of members
OH 01: Rep. Steve Chabot (R): more conservative than 89.7%
IN 09: Rep. Mike Sodrel (R-IN): more conservative than 88.3%
TX 22: Rep. Tom DeLay (R): more conservative than 86.7%
KY 04: Rep. Geoff Davis (R-KY): more conservative than 80.7%
NC 11: Rep. Charles Taylor (R): more conservative than 80.2%
IN 02: Rep. Chris Chocola (R) more conservative than 77.5%
LA 07: Rep. Charles Boustany (R-LA): more conservative than 75.7%
KY 03: Rep. Anne Northup (R) more conservative than 74.7%
FL 22: Rep. Clay Shaw (R): more conservative than 70.0%
OH 15: Rep. Deborah Pryce (R): more conservative than 68.7%
NY 29: Rep. Randy Kuhl (R-NY): more conservative than 63.8%
IN 08: Rep. John Hostettler (R): more conservative than 63.8%
OH 18: Rep. Bob Ney (R): more conservative than 58.2%
PA 06: Rep. Jim Gerlach (R): more conservative than 55.8%
WA 08: Rep. Dave Reichert (R-WA): more conservative than 55%
PA 08: Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick (R-PA): more conservative than 54.5%
MI 07: Rep. Joe Schwarz (R-MI): more conservative than 52.8%
NM 01: Rep. Heather Wilson (R): more conservative than 49.5%
CT 02: Rep. Rob Simmons (R): more conservative than 49.2%
CT 05: Rep. Nancy Johnson (R): more conservative than 48.2%
CT 04: Rep. Christopher Shays (R): more conservative than 46.0%

Onto The Dems -- Three Other Vulnerables More Conservative Than Cuellar

SC 05: Rep. John Spratt (D): more liberal than 65.0 percent of the members
IA 03: Rep. Leonard Boswell (D): more liberal than 63.2%
IL 08: Rep. Melissa Bean (D-IL): more liberal than 59.3%
TX 17: Rep. Chet Edwards (D): more liberal than 58.3%
TX 28: Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-TX): more liberal than 56%
LA 03: Rep. Charlie Melancon (D-LA): more liberal than 55%
UT 02: Rep. Jim Matheson( D): more liberal than 54.3%
GA 08: Rep. Jim Marshall (D): more liberal than 49%

Posted 02.24.06 03:25 PM | Comments (6)

National Journal Vote Ratings: GOP Senators Up In '06

All out of 100; listed from most conservative to most liberal.

Posted 02.24.06 03:16 PM | Comments (3)

National Journal Vote Ratings: Senate Dems Up In '06

All out of 100;listed from most liberal to most conservative.

Posted 02.24.06 03:02 PM | Comments (1)

The Futures Market: Nevada

What's the Hotline Futures Market? It's our exclusive look at the up-and-comers in every party in every state. You won't a list like this anywhere else. If you've missed a state, check out our archives.

GOPers seemed surprisingly defensive about their prospects in what is, for now, a red state. They're already looking to a bench that's weak, according to more than one GOP source, but that has its share of potentially huge candidates. Dems have a few stellar up-and-comers of their own, as well as the mayor of the state's biggest city and certainly the state's biggest ego, Oscar Goodman, to brag about. And of note, more than one potential candidate in the state is the child of a former office-holder, and trading on their parents' names gives them an advantage that none of them have squandered so far. [REID WILSON]

• State Rep. Walter Andonov (R): After contemplating a bid for State Comptroller, Andonov retired from the Assembly to take a job with the Bush admin in DC.
• Clark Co. Commis. Lynette Boggs-McDonald (R): A Las Vegas city councillor when we first met her, GOPers are excited for her rise. She's "really enjoying this job" though "she'll always keep an eye" on Rep. Jon Porter's (R) NV 03 seat. "To say she's a rising star is an understatement."
• Ex-State Rep. David Brown (R): Had beaten a Dem incumbent, but returned to the private sector after one term. "He's a guy who will be on people's radar down the road" for judiciary appt.
• State Sen. Barbara Cegavske (R): "A dogged campaigner," but "not well-liked" by anyone other than business interests. Not in the gaming industry's good graces, which limits her prospects in the future. "She has the tools to go another spot somewhere," but it's unclear where that will be.
• State Rep. Josh Griffin (R): The son of a former mayor of Reno, he served one term and returned to his lobbyist practice. "People were disappointed that he left."
• State Sen. Warren Hardy (R): "Odds-on favorite" to be the next Sen Min Leader and has built himself a good organization. While some believe he's interested in fed office, others doubt it.
• Ex-NV GOP chair Lia Roberts: Left the party in '04 to run for President of Romania.
• AG Brian Sandoval (R): Appointed to a fed judgeship, he was confirmed by the Sen in 10/05.
• State Sen. Sandra Tiffany (R): Does a great job at constituent service, but "the larger the size of the race, the less effective she becomes." An ethical cloud currently surrounds her, but she's expected to run for re-election in '06. She's contemplated bids for several down-ballot statewide races, but "hasn't pulled the trigger."
• State Assemb. Maj. Leader Barbara Buckley (D): The likely incoming speaker when leadership elections are held next year, she's NV's version of Sen. Hillary Clinton, according to one source, in that she's "clearly smart, ... but may just be too liberal for her own good." Has thought about running for Gov or AG in the future. She'll be NV's first female speaker.
• Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman (D): Vegas's flamboyant mayor is making noise about a possible bid against Sen. John Ensign (R), but "Oscar's Oscar," says one party insider, and he may just enjoy the attention. Had considered a Gov bid but has ruled it out for the most part. "The question has always been whether he's willing to lose a race."
• Henderson City Councilmember Andy Hafen (D): A potential candidate for Henderson Mayor. His daughter appears in our "ones to watch" section below.
• NV Board of Education member John Hawk (D): Most insiders believe he's dropped off the radar screen.
• Sen. Min. Leader Dina Titus (D): Frontrunner for the Dem nomination for Gov, she's "amazingly smart" and has the "passionate backing of the grassroots Dems."
• State Sen. Steven Horsford (D): Now that Titus is running for Gov, Horsford is the de facto Min Leader and is performing well. He's fundraising and recruiting, all the while serving as one of NV's DNC cmte members.
• '02 AG nom. John Hunt (D): Had been mentioned as a possible LG candidate, but that's probably not going to happen, most of our sources agree.
• Assemb. Speaker Richard Perkins (D): "Will always have some sort of statesman role" in the party, but he won't be running in '06.
• Clark Co. Commis. chair Rory Reid (D): The son of Sen. Harry Reid (D), Rory is "extraordinarily happy where he is." That being said, however, "it's when he chooses to make the next step, not if."

• AG George Chanos (R): Appointed to the position after his predecessor was named to the federal bench, Chanos is "a stand-up, straight-forward guy." In his first bid for office, he's raised $1.2M in just a few months. "He's a guy to look out for for" Gov or Sen "in the future."
• Financial Consultant Mark DeStefano (R): A self-funder, DeStefano gave $100K to the RNC, and while he's "very green," he's "going to be a very viable candidate" for State Treasurer and "really is learning fast."
• State Treas. Brian Krolicki (R): Currently a candidate for LG, which is seen as a stepping stone to fed office or the Gov mansion.
• Tessa Hafen (D): Daughter of Andy Hafen and Sen. Reid's former press secretary, she just left Reid's office to mull a bid against Rep. Porter. Insiders say Reid is willing to spend time on the race to help the 29-year-old succeed.
• Henderson Mayor Jim Gibson (D): Running for Gov, the Mormon Dem already has a natural base, though he's being criticized for his conservative views. He does, however, "have the powers that be backing him."
• State Rep. John Oceguara: A Captain in the North Las Vegas fire dept, he's the favorite to be Maj Leader in the Assemb. He'd considered a bid for Congress in '04 against Rep. Porter, and people think he's "being groomed for something."

Posted 02.24.06 01:30 PM | Comments (2)

National Journal Vote Rankings

The 2005 National Journal Vote Ratings are online, seachable and fully accessible.

http://nationaljournal.com/voteratings/

Since 1981, National Journal's annual vote ratings have defined where members of Congress have stood ideologically in each chamber. The ratings rank lawmakers on how they vote relative to each other on a conservative-to-liberal scale in both the Senate and the House. The scores are based on the members' votes in three areas: economic issues, social issues, and foreign policy. The process is lovingly supervised by National Journal congressional correspondent Richard Cohen, one of the best in the biz.

Who's the most conservative Dem in the House? (It's not Cuellar.) Who's the most liberal Senator running for re-election? Has George Allen really become more conservative in office?
Methodology

Posted 02.24.06 12:03 PM | Comments (0)

James Dobson, Gay Rights And Reciprocal Benefits

Is Focus On The Family's James Dobson a sudden supporter of gay rights?

Heavens to Betsy...Perish the thought. (He certainly would "never" do that, as he put it on a recent radio program.)

But Focus on the Family is backing a CO bill that would permit same-sex couples to care for each other during illness and to enter into binding legal contracts.

The bill, introduced by State Sen. Shawn Mitchell (R), would allow two people who can't get married to establish a "reciprocal beneficiary agreement" that allows them to make decisions about medical care and end-of-life dilemmas, would give them hospital visitation rights, extend domestic violence protections, would provide inheritance and property rights and even employee insurance benefits (provided their "reciprocal beneficiary's" company offers them.")

Those are actual, tangible rights that unmarried couples -- gays included -- don't have.

Focus on the Family argues that the bill codifies and streamlines what’s already legal: allowing two unmarried persons to enter into legal contracts. Also, the bill was introduced to blunt an argument raised by a separate domestic partnership referendum proposalthat a Dem lawmaker has written: chiefly, that gay couples are concretely and uniquely harmed by being prevented from, say, visiting a sick partner in the hospital. [MARC AMBINDER]

The flak from some evangelical groups has been fierce.

Politically, the bill does neatly address an argument to conscience.

Conservatives who oppose gay marriage and any state-sanctioned benefit scheme for same-sex couples can now say that of course they would not be so cruel as to endorse laws that prevent a gay man from visiting his dying partner in the hospital.

But it tracks, a little uncomfortably, with a view of rights and contracts that some radical liberal scholars promote -- government should make it much easier for any two people to enter into contracts. These folks are not fans of a special status for marriage in general.

Dobson says the bill does not favor gays over anyone else, but because it does not apply to couples eligible to get married, the law implies that there is societal value of two people who care for each other and live together -- be they two brothers looking for work, the oft-cited example of elderly sisters living together -- or even gays.

So what scares some opponents of gay rights is that the silence of the law about the value of gay relationships implies at least implicit consent. (Colorado's largest gay rights group, Equal Rights Colorado, "does not oppose" the bill because, at the very least, they recognize that it (a) has a good chance of passing and (b) would give same-sex couples tangible rights they currently don't have.

Reciprocal beneficiary laws tend to cut in gay activists' favor in court battles because they're proof of a legislative intent to value gay couples. The harm from these activists' perspective is that such laws undercut their political standing among the public by removing their most poignant example of oppression. That's the Bismarckian strategy that Dobson . In Hawaii, gay marriage was blocked by voter referendum precisely because gay activists found it hard to convince people that gay couples suffered under the current regime. Hawaii has a reciprocal beneficiary law.

Conservative proponents of marriage worry that once you create a "marriage-lite" institution, you'll eventually have to open it to straights on fairness grounds. And once straight couples have access to the rights and benefits of marriage without having to actually get married, the institution will be permanently weakened.

Getting married might become most uncool if straight couples could obtain the benefits of the institution without actually tying a single knot.

Posted 02.24.06 10:35 AM | Comments (5)

From Wake Up Call -- Romney On Abortion

MA Gov. Mitt Romney (R), trying to "clear up any confusion" while in SC, said: "I'm pro-life. So, the issue is settled" (Columbia State).

Posted 02.24.06 09:06 AM | Comments (2)

If You Didn't Know Already...

The NGA comes to town on Saturday for its annual winter meeting, and if you didn't know before you certainly will by the time they wrap up: AR Gov/'08 prospect Mike Huckabee (R) is the group's chairman.

Titled the "National Forum On Healthy America," this year's cold weather chief executive confab kicks off bright and early on Saturday morning with a "5K Fun Run/Walk." And before it is over on Tuesday nine more sessions will be devoted to issues relating to health, fitness, nutrition and well-being.

Highlights include appearances by Olympic Gold Medalists, Food Network hosts, CNN's inimitable Dr. Sanjay Gupta, and another AR Gov known for his battle with the bulge -- Bill Clinton. Oh, and if that is not enough Razorback for ya, Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott will make news in his address to the group on Sunday night.

Beyond elevating Huckabee, Hogs and Healthiness, the conference will include the usual WH Black-Tie shindig and next-day working session with the Prez. The DGA and RGA hold breakfast meetings with their most generous donors on Monday morning in between the two events.

Also on tap is an RGA dinner for its top contributors ("Statesman and Cabinet") on Saturday night, a meeting of those who do at least $1K annually ("Team 1000") and a "Tribute to Presidential Leadership” fundraising gala on Monday.

The DGA, for its part, puts on its "Taste of America" fundraising gala on Monday night.

After the campaign cmtes' fundraising soirees on Monday night, the two parties can rejoin each other for a little late night "Tango at Zengo." Lobby shops Barbour, Griffith and Rogers and Dutko -- the former known for its ex-lobbyist, the latter for its ex-gov -- are hosting the get-together at one of the city's swanky new clubs in Chinatown.

Lastly, be sure to walk down the block after Pres Clinton keynotes the final session on Tuesday morning to see IA Gov./'08 prospect Tom Vilsack speak at the Nat'l Press Club's Newsmaker Luncheon.

And we know Vilsack is not the only other '08'er who will be out and about during the meeting. So let us know what your candidate/client is doing and we'll update our sked. Or do y'all want Huckabee to have all the fun?

Posted 02.24.06 07:41 AM | Comments (4)

February 23, 2006

Posted 02.23.06 06:03 PM | Comments (0)

On Transparency In Political Consulting

The decision by the Steelworkers union to badger Dem consultants working for Rep. Henry Cuellar has lifted the curtains on a debate about transparency that many in the consulting world have urged for years.

Doug Bailey, a legendary Republican consultant and the Hotline's founder, sees transparency as a step toward accountability. If consultants sign up candidates knowing that their decision will be subject to analysis and even to pressure by party activists and the media, "It causes consultants to make decisions on who they work for based not only on finances but on beliefs."

Says Bailey: "They make a judgment call on something more than money because they're going to be held accountable for it. They ought to act is if everything they do ought to be known by the public. If they don't want it ot be known by the public, why are they doing it?"

Virtually everybody in politics has their own brand of apostasy. And most consultants have had one night stands with strange bedfellows. Labor unions in New York supported Republican Mike Bloomberg while Dem firms (like Global Strategy Group, a target of the Steelworkers' anti-Cuellar campaign) slaved away on the traditional Dem campaign of Fernando Ferrer.

And the very fact that Cuellar has D consultants is a signal that he's trying to wear the clothes of a Democrat. (Remember what party many of Bloomberg's consultants belonged to?)

Bailey spent 20 years as an ad-maker and media strategist. "I came to the conclusion that it's the quality of the person that you're working for rather than the particular stands on the particular issues that matter. If you are reluctant to work for somebody because if somebody other people found out about it you wouldn't get other jobs, then what are you working for that person for?"

There is a difference between outing somebody and organizing a campaign to hurt their business. (We're not saying that the latter tactic is never valid, only that transparency and accountability are context-dependent.)

Says Bailey: "If the effort is to make it difficult for those consultants ever to get another job and to work aggressively to that no campaign ever hires those consultants again, that's probably going too far."

But, he says, "I think it is appropriate for consultant to have to live with the consequences of their decisions."

Says USW official Gary Hubbard, "The USW is always willing to try bold approaches in elections that reflect fierce persistence and commitment to our members' political values. We need to make an example of Cuellar so that Ciro Rodreguez is elected."

In the same vein, will the Steelworkers, too, be held accountable for the candidates they've supported and firms they've hired?

Consider this, too: it's easy to find out who works for whom. But transparency is near-impossible when consultants themselves subcontract work to third parties, who often possess the greater potential conflicts of interests. Many political consultants brag about their political clients but refuse to disclose their corporate clients. [MARC AMBINDER]

Posted 02.23.06 04:14 PM | Comments (1)

Giuliani And The Ports

We wondered why ex-NYC mayor Rudy Giuliani hasn't made a statement on the port issue....

He's in India and we're not sure whether he's been asked about it, yet.

BTW: Giuliani's first visit to the Middle East (outside Israel) took him to Dubai in '04 for a leadership conference.

Posted 02.23.06 03:41 PM | Comments (0)

Rocky Shoals At Port McCain

Good policy ain't always good politics, and to the (probable) frustration of his political supporters, Sen. John McCain has a way of making clear that distinction.

Looked at solely through the prism of presidential primary politics, the latest controversy over UAE port decision pits two of McCain's purported primary strategies against each other: courting Bush loyalists and courting conservatives.

Can you find a Bush loyalist (Jimmy Carter? The NYT editorial page? Sean Hannity?) who's on Bush's side here?

McCain is a smart political cookie and clearly understands the short-term peril of standing against the weight of elite political opinion.

So even if you're inclined to believe that McCain puts his finger to the wind like every politician, you'd have to construct a fairly convoluted argument to make that theory fit here.

While other potential '08ers like Sen. George Allen (R-VA) and Sen. Bill Frist (R-TN) were stepping out this week to criticize the WH, McCain issued a statement saying Bush had "earned our trust" and "deserves the presumption" that he "would not sell our security short."

(Why not ask Frist and Allen where they think Bush has earned that presumption? If Bush has not, doesn't that undermine the entire Republican argument about Bush, trust and national security?)

Somewhere along the line the two roads diverged in a yellow wood. McCain, of course, took the road less traveled.

McCain sees the President's perspective. It's the only explanation for deliberately positioning himself against both Bush loyalists and movement conservatives. And even Democrats.

Posted 02.23.06 03:32 PM | Comments (4)

Diageo/Hotline: Racial Optimism?

Diageo/Hotline Poll
State Of Race Relations In US Now?  
           All Dem Ind GOP          
Excell      3%  2%  2%  4%              
Good       34  23  32  49           
Fair       43  48  49  36           
Poor       17  26  13   8

Progress Towards Racial Equality?
                All Dem Ind GOP
Great deal/some  82% 80% 80% 86%
Not much/none    15  19  16  10