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February 28, 2006

Hotline Futures Market: New Hampshire

What's the Hotline Futures Market? It's our exclusive look at the up-and-comers in every party in every state. You won't a list like this anywhere else. If you've missed a state, check out our archives.

After winning 7 of 8 special elections since the '04 cycle ended, Dems are upbeat about their chances in the State Legislature, and some on both sides feel the state is trending blue. But down almost 100 seats in a 400-seat state house, Dems who actually believe control is within reach may have had a little too much Kool Aid to drink. Both sides have strong female candidates waiting in the wings for whom everyone is excited, and up-and-coming mayors in each party are generating buzz as well. [REID WILSON]



The stars we've been watching since '03:

  • State Sen. Pres. Tom Eaton (R): No longer Sen. Pres. but still in the state sen. Lost a power struggle and resigned

  • '02 Gov candidate Bruce Keough (R): Still around, but has taken himself out of the '06 running. Still around the party, though

  • '02 NH 01 candidate Sean Mahoney (R): Business New Hampshire magazine owner, big donor

  • NH GOP chair Jayne Millerick: Consulting now, no longer state chair

  • State Sen. Andrew Peterson (R): Lost a re-election bid, no one expects him back

  • State Dep. Safety Commiss. John Stephen (R): HHS commis, "an up-and-comer"

  • Asst. Maj. Leader Mike Whalley (R): Ex-Dep Speaker, lost an election for speaker, chair of election law subcmte.

  • Ex-Manchester Mayor Bob Baines (D): Lost re-election in '05 despite the help of several potential WH '08 candidates. Had considered a bid for Congress, but now that he's lost, those plans are shelved.

  • Ex-State Rep. Mike Blaisdell (D): Ran for NH Executive Council in '02 but lost and is no longer involved in politics.

  • Ex-State Rep. John Kacavas (D): "Still a player in" NH, "but I don't see him going anywhere for a few years." Others expect that he'll return at some point, o

  • Gov. John Lynch (D): The former chair of the NH Univ. System Board of Trustees when we met him, Lynch is now one of the most popular Govs in the country.

  • State Rep. Chris Malloy (D): No longer in the legislature and probably done with politics.

  • Executive Councilmember Deborah Pignatelli (D): The former State Sen. is still considered a possible fed candidate. She's someone who "gives hope that" Dems "actually are taking over this state for good."

  • NH Dem chair Kathy Sullivan: Still the most-quoted party chair in the country. "I'm sure she has some detractors, but I'm not one of them." Credited by both Dems and GOPers with staving off MI's attempts to change the pres. primary calendar.

    • And the stars to watch in the future:

    • Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta (R): Knocked off incumbent Mayor Baines and is still in his early 30s. As mayor of the state's biggest city, "how can he not be a rising star?" Some think he'd do best to focus on his '07 re-election bid, but if he wins re-election, he'll be a force throughout the state.

    • State Rep. Jim Coburn (R): "He's assembling his team" to make an '06 Gov bid and says he's willing to dump upwards of $1M into his race.

    • State Sen. Chuck Morse (R): The chair of the Sen Budget Cmte, "he doesn't deny he has higher ambitions" and is a possible candidate for Gov in '06.

    • AG Kelly Ayotte (R): Appointed to her position by a Dem gov after serving as ex-Gov. Craig Benson's (R) legal counsel, she was named one of NH's 40 young stars by NH Magazine. A pro-choicer in this fiercely libertarian state, she defended NH's parental notification bill in front of SCOTUS.

    • House Min Leader Jim Craig (D): Craig is pondering a bid against Rep. Jeb Bradley (R) in NH 01. The Manchester atty comes from a political family -- his father was also House Min Leader -- and is "very well known and very well liked" within the party. Seen as less partisan as some of his predecessors, which has earned him widespread respect.

    • Gov. Lynch Dep CoS Mike Vlacich (D): A former staffer of Rep. Jeanne Shaheen and an ex-NH Dem Exec. Dir., "it's only a few more years before he decides to run for something himself."

    • State Sen. Maggie Hassan (D): In her first term, "a lot of people have been mentioning her as future candidate" for Gov. "Somebody who would definitely run for other seats." One source says she's "been begged to run for every office under the sun" and will one day "pick her turn with the entire party behind her."

    • Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand (D): After serving as press sec. to a losing Gov candidate in '02, he's now mayor of the state's biggest Dem-performing city. With experience in campaigns and seen as "a good" gov't "policy wonk," he "could be running for" Gov by '08.


    Posted at 09:23 AM

    Comments


    Check out others running against Jeb Bradley.

    http://www.carolshea-porter.com/
    http://www.sullivanforcongress.org/
    http://www.doddsforcongress.com/

    Mayme | 03.01.06 05:58 AM


    Craig is going to be the biggest flop since Bev Hollingworth in 2002. He's as wishy-washy as they get and about as photogenic as a dust mite. He also has a poor record on environmental issues that is going to hurt him badly in the primary.

    NH Politico | 03.01.06 11:47 AM

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