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March 31, 2006

Ahead Of The Curve

If there is another Member that is taking better advantage of all that the "New Media" has to offer than Rep. Jack Kingston (R-GA), we'd like to know who it is.

Not only does Kingston have his own blog, he also podcasts (check out the shameless iPod knock-off on the latter). What's more, the House GOP Conference vice chair has been instrumental in pushing others in the Conference toward embracing bloggers as a way of getting their message out sans filter. Just this week, Kingston hosted a discussion with bloggers representing three high-traffic conservative sites.

A member of the class of '92, Kingston has generally been a conservative team player in the House, rising in the ranks on Approps to secure a seat on its Defense Subcommittee from which he can channel funds back to his military-heavy South Georgia district.

He was a fervent DeLay loyalist until the very end this year, backing the next-in-line Roy Blunt to take over as Maj Leader after DeLay threw in the towel. Kingston also made his own leadership ambitions known during the GOP's internal elections, saying that he would be a candidate for Conference chair should there be a contest for what is now Deborah Pryce's position.

And with Pryce eyeing the gavel at the Financial Services Committee in the next Congress, Kingston will no doubt seek to rise in the ranks.

Which is why his online efforts matter.

As the election of Maj Leader John Boehner in February proved, external pressures do affect political events as internal as party leadership races. This is not to say that the conservative bloggers who got behind Rep. John Shadegg (R-AZ) and went after Blunt decided that contest, but that the race did not occur in a vacuum and members knew very well just how fed up many conservatives were with the state of congressional GOP.

By becoming both a practitioner and supporter of the "New Media" now, Kingston establishes relationships and even friendships with those who could be active supporters (and lobbyists) for a future leadership bid.

[JONATHAN MARTIN]

Posted 03.31.06 02:58 PM | Comments (0)

DNC Raises $17M

We hear..

The Democratic National Committee will announce it's raised more than $17 million this quarter, capping off three $5M+ months.

And they have a bit more than $9.2M on hand.

The party should significantly enhance its coffers in mid-April when ex-Pres. Clinton holds a fundraiser for the party (his first) on April 10 in New York City.

Posted 03.31.06 02:23 PM | Comments (0)

Hotline TV This Week: The Video Vault

This week Hotline TV makes a run for the border and finally nabs an Emmy nod as it figures out the '08 winners/losers on immigration, does a little over/under on Iraq and Campaign '06, finds some trickles of water in that nearly empty glass for GOPers in '06, gives some end of the month Hotties and breezes thru the fastest two minutes on the web.

Posted 03.31.06 01:52 PM | Comments (0)

The Perils Of Immigration Reform

National Journal's Kirk Victor reports this week that the mood of Congressional Republicans dealing with immigration is tense and dour.

THe full article is available to National Journal subscribers, but the lead of the piece explains a

"Sen. Mike DeWine, R-Ohio, chuckled before entering the hearing room where the Senate Judiciary Committee was about to continue its slugfest over immigration reform on March 27. DeWine predicted that tenacious Chairman Arlen Specter, R-Pa., would make good on his pledge to complete work that day so that the committee's sweeping measure could go to the Senate floor. But when DeWine was asked what his Ohio constituents think about the issue, he said it isn't a top concern. Not even second or third."It is certainly not the big issue," he said. "Jobs are the big issue. The war is certainly a topic. And health care. People do ask about immigration, and when it is in the news, like it is this week, it will certainly spike up."

DeWine thinks the odds are "less than 50-50" that the Senate and House will agree on a measure to send to Bush.

But, asks Victor, "if the odds are so long, is it worthwhile to expend an anticipated two weeks of precious Senate floor time during a truncated election year debating this combustible issue?" 'I won't comment on that," said DeWine, who is engaged in his own fierce re-election battle.That's certainly not a ringing endorsement for the decision by Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, R-Tenn., to stage a high-profile showdown on immigration. With his party struggling to retain control of Congress, why would Frist force the half-dozen or so GOP senators who are vulnerable in November's elections to cast votes on a red-hot issue -- especially when the upshot may be gridlock that yet again draws attention to the Republican-led government's shortcomings?"

Posted 03.31.06 01:42 PM | Comments (0)

Beware Of Online Polls

There are a bunch of new poll numbers circulating in a bunch of states, thanks to the release of the latest online polls Zogby Int'l conducts for the Wall Street Journal's web site. We don't publish or acknowledge the existence of these numbers in any of our outlets because we are just not comfortable that online panels are reliable indicators.

It's a very new technology and we applaud Zogby for trying because some mix of phone calls, door-to-door and online will be used to create reliable polls in the future. Zogby is uniquely situated for the future, in fact, as he regularly conducts door-to-door surveys via his int'l arm, so he's gaining crucial experience when he moves toward using all three technologies for the same survey. (Note: Zogby does do a few calls in each state he polls online, but, frankly, it's not enough calls.)

But, to date, his online poll results are not just quirky, in some cases they don't make any sense. BTW, we have the same policy on Rasmussen (who uses automated callers) as well as his numbers sometimes show movement where none should have occurred. Until the track records of these surveys are proven over a long period of time, we'll continue to ignore these poll results when conducting our own analysis.

Finally, and here's the clincher for why we look at both Zogby online and Rasmussen with such a jaundiced eye: if either method of polling (online panels or automated callers) were consistently reliable, wouldn't professional campaign pollsters be using it? It's certainly cheaper [CHUCK TODD]

Posted 03.31.06 01:02 PM | Comments (2)

Mudcat and.. Edwards?

From Taegan Goddard's interview with Dave Mudcat Saunders: "Key takeaway: Since Mudcat was so important to Mark Warner's Virginia gubernatorial campaign in 2001, one might naturally assume he'd be backing Warner for president. However, it seemed to me that he actually thinks John Edwards is a better candidate and has a better chance. Very interesting."

Posted 03.31.06 12:48 PM | Comments (0)

Update: The Dem Gang Of Five Agrees...

DNC Chair Howard Dean has a new ally in his fight to convince donors to support his 50-state capacity building project.

In late Feb., Dean and DNC exec. dir. Tom McMahon traveled to Harlem and sat down with ex-Pres. Clinton, often said to be privately disparaging of Dean. But as Dean walked Clinton through the project and showed Clinton evidence that the party had found new pockets of Dems in states like MS and SC, Clinton became an instant convert.

He vowed to help Dean win the attention of donors. Clinton will do his first fundraiser for the DNC in April.

Clinton's support comes at precisely the right time for Dean. Party leaders and Cong. campaign strategists are nervously pressuring Dean to stop spending money to staff organizers in states and instead commit to transfer the bulk of the DNC's kitty to the DSCC and the DCCC.

At a tense meeting in Feb., Senate Min. Leader Harry Reid urged Dean to give to the Senate committee the same amount as the RNC was expected to transfer to the GOP's Senate committee. Reid argued that the DSCC's historically rare fundraising advantage could be wiped out with a single check from RNC Chair Ken Mehlman. If Republicans shuffled their cash, Reid said, the outcome of several critical Senate races might be jeopardized.

According to three sources familiar with the meeting, Dean said no. Of course, he said, the DNC will spend millions on the midterms. His argument (described by one source as "halting") was this: While the DSCC and DCCC's role is traditionally incumbent protection, Dean, on the other hand, was elected chair to tend to overall health of the party. And that includes his responsibility to hundreds of non-federal candidates as well. His investment in state parties, Dean promised Reid and House Min. Leader Nancy Pelosi, would pay off and the benefits would accrue to Democrats at all levels.

A follow up meeting last week between Dean, Reid, Pelosi, and Sen. Chuck Schumer and Rep. Rahm Emanuel was more smooth. A source familiar with the meeting said that the five agreed that the DNC would devote substantial resources to the ground game in battleground states [MARC AMBINDER]

Posted 03.31.06 11:39 AM | Comments (0)

Listen To Wes Clark...Seriously

Too many people handicapping the Dem field aren't paying attention to Ret. Gen. Wes Clark. The guy has a monster travel schedule on behalf of other Dems. He's still the to-go talking head for Democratic national security events. He's doing the party's national radio address this Saturday.

And now his podcast is right now the most popular political podcast in the nation.

The third installment of Clark's audiotaped thoughts ranks ahead of Sean Hannity . It's more listened-to than Sen. Barack Obama's audio doodlings. Than ex-Sen. John Edwards's podcast, too.

Through a spokesman, Clark tells us: "I am proud to be a part of the podcast evolution and pleased so many people care about being involved to the future of country by engaging in this medium."

Posted 03.31.06 10:05 AM | Comments (7)

Bill Clinton's A Convert To Dean's 50-State Project

NOTE: This post is updated above.

Will Howard Dean's Democratic National Committee be ready for the November elections? Party leaders and congressional campaign strategists are nervously pressuring Dean to stop spending money to staff organizers in states and instead commit to transfer the bulk of the DNC's kitty to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

At a tense meeting in February, Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid urged Dean to give to the Senate committee the same amount as the Republican National Committee was expected to transfer to the GOP's Senate committee. Reid argued that the DSCC's historically rare fundraising advantage could be wiped out with a single check from RNC chairman Ken Mehlman. If Republicans shuffled their cash, Reid said, the outcome of several critical Senate races might be jeopardized.

According to three sources familiar with the meeting, Dean said no. Of course, he said, the DNC will spend millions on the midterms. His argument was this: While the DSCC and DCCC's role is rightfully incumbent protection, Dean, on the other hand, was elected chair to tend to overall health of the party. And that includes his responsibility to hundreds of non-federal candidates as well. His investment in state parties, Dean promised Reid and House Min. Leader Nancy Pelosi, would pay off and the benefits would accrue to Democrats at all levels.

Though the DNC has raised a record amount of hard money for an off-year cycle, it trails the RNC by several car lengths. Overall, the GOP will have more to spend on its races in the fall as the DNC has sent much of its money to state counterparts. (It's not as if the money is going into a hole. The DNC organizers are using it to find new voters and to update voter files and prepare coordinated campaigns for 2006.)

Both Dean's admirers and his critics blame the money gap on the priorities of major donors, who are race-and-cycle centric. And Dean, in the words of one of his friends, "never sucks up to donors" and is "clinical" when he discusses politics with them.

A new DNC hire -- finance director Carl Chidlow -- was brought aboard to help bridge the two cultures. Chidlow was deputy finance director for Sen. John Kerry's record-setting presidential bid and considered one of the party's best professional fundraisers.

A friend says Chidlow decided to accept Dean's job offer after finding evidence that Dean truly was committed to competing everywhere. One of Chidlow's prime tasks today: to evangelize Dean's state-based efforts to major donors.

And Dean has one supremely important new ally who, when he goes public, will almost certainly help with donors. In late February, Dean traveled to Harlem and sat down with former President Bill Clinton, often said to be privately disparaging of Dean.

But as Dean walked Clinton through his 50-state capacity-building project, Clinton became a convert. He vowed to help Dean win the attention of donors. [MARC AMBINDER]

Posted 03.31.06 09:32 AM | Comments (10)

Hotline After Dark -- What You Missed Thursday Night

Apparently "Earl" had to die so we decided to stick to cable.

Lots of coverage of Jill Carroll's release. But there were also lots of pols on last night:

House Min. Leader Nancy Pelosi was on "NewsHour." She said she supports the McCain-Kennedy-Gutierrez immigration bill. On the Dem nat'l security plan: "You have President Bush saying: Stay the course, and I'll leave it up to a future president to clean up my mess behind me. And you have the Democrats saying: 2006 must be a year of transition" (PBS, 3/30).

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) was on "Situation Room" and "Hannity & Colmes." He talked about immigration and Iraq and then was asked about speaking at Liberty Univ. McCain: "I speak to between three and five colleges and universities around the country for commencement every year. The same message this year. I'm speaking at a new school in New York and Ohio State University, as well." More: "The Reverend Falwell came to see me. We had a good conversation. There are areas we're in agreement on, and I'm sure there are areas that we're in disagreement on. And he asked me to speak at his commencement. I was glad to do it" ("Situation Room," CNN, 3/30).

Asked if he gets top billing on the immigration bill, McCain: "Yes, whether I want it or not" ("Hannity & Colmes," FNC, 3/30).

Newt Gingrich was also on "Hannity & Colmes," where he talked about his Time interview: "Republicans have to be the party of reform, because we're the people who pay for pork. We're not the people who get excited when it's delivered. And so I think that we're in a very delicate period right now where the Republican Party has to recapture a focus on being a reform party. And I was trying to be quite clear. I have every reason to believe we can win this fall, but I think it does require real change. And not just doing more of the same, but real change" (FNC, 3/30).

SOMEONE ISN'T GOING TO GET INVITED TO DAVOS

Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE) was on "Hardball," talking about the situation in Iraq and immigration. Biden, speaking in English: "I can't think of a country that has two languages as their accepted languages, that is doing all that well, including Switzerland and/or Canada" (MSNBC, 3/30).

Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN) was on CNBC's "Street Signs" talking about foreign investment in U.S. companies.

JUST IN CASE YOU WERE WONDERING ...

Lou Dobbs is still in Cancun and still talking about immigration. [EMILY GOODIN]

Posted 03.31.06 07:15 AM | Comments (0)

March 30, 2006

Subliminal Messaging For '08?

Around this time in the election cycle, presidential candidates always answer the '08 questions with something like, "I'll decide after the midterms," or "Never look past the next election." They typically keep their distance from the '08 label to keep the press pumping on their potential candidacy.

Not Gov. Bill Richardson. The DGA head took a less subtle approach in the most recent fundraising email sent out on the Democratic Governor's Association listserv:

The slogan, "I won't wait for '08...neither should you," is part of the DGA's midterm appeal to raise money for 36 Governor's races across the country. The idea is supporters shouldn't wait for a Presidential election and instead donate to Governors this year. But while the message is from the DGA, the picture says a thousand words about Richardson [SHIRA R. TOEPLITZ].

Posted 03.30.06 04:10 PM | Comments (1)

After just three installments of General Wes Clark’s “ClarkCast” has leapfrogged over more established podcasts to rest at #4 on the Apple iTunes political podcast directory of the most subscribed-to podcasts. General Clark, “The podcast technology is helping people close the gap between the time they have for public affairs and current events the time they want for them. I am proud to be a part of the podcast evolution and pleased so many people care about being involved to the future of country by engaging in this medium.”

Posted 03.30.06 03:59 PM | Comments (0)

Luntz Focus Groups The Dems....

Luntz Maslansky Strategic Research presented its findings on the '08 Dem field this a.m. to reporters at a Christian Science Monitor breakfast.

Their focus groups tested Dem primary voters in NH and IA. We don't know the size/demographic balance, etc., so don't read too much into the conclusions. (And don't ever confuse focus groups with polls -- we'll let Mark Blumenthal elaborate, if he wants to.)

What do Dems want? Per The Luntz interpretation of said focus groups: "When all is said and done, the Democratic nominee will be the person they believe has the best handle on the future and who can best bring about the change and reform they are desperately seeking." And "perhaps most importantly, they want the anti-Bush" who is not a "Bush basher." The Dems "don't want a grouchy, accusatory, finger-pointing yeller. They want someone smart but with good common sense, a leader with new ideas who believes and practices accountability."

The survey offers "10 Commandments For Democrats." They include: 1. Don't "feel my pain" -- "give me something to alleviate it. 3. Dems "don't want to hear about your church" in the primary. If they "really cared," they'd be Republicans. 6. "Be a Deficit Democrat. Every time a Democratic candidate talked about ending wasteful spending and tackling the deficit, the dials spiked up, as did the approval."

The survey also probed for responses about candidates.

Support for Hillary Clinton "disappeared by the time the night was over, and she won virtually no new converts. Only Edwards faired worse." The problem for Clinton is that she starts with such high expectations. Democrats expect her to be smart, and she delivers. They expect her to be tough, and she delivers. But there are a number of verbal and visual intangibles that clearly undermine her presentation, her image, and eventually her support. As with many women in public life, her looks and presentation account for a disproportionate percentage of the reactions she elicits." More; "The tape of Sen. Clinton that we showed in New Hampshire was not a stump speech but rather a public sit-down interview with Jane Pauley in San Francisco conducted earlier this year. This should have been to her advantage. Maybe it was the interview format that kept her from building momentum, but our primary voter audience was not very impressed. When we showed a stump speech to the group in Iowa their reactions weren't much better. Focusing on the year 2020 was an innovative approach, but she never explained how she plans to get there."

Sen. John Kerry "has a lot to live down. There is no public outcry for a second candidacy, and we heard loud and clear from many pained Democrats still angry by his loss to Bush." Positives: "He doesn't pull his punches. He calls it like he sees it when it comes to the Bush administration's failures."

Ex-Sen. John Edwards: "Of the nine candidates we tested, none began with positives and expectations as high as former Senator John Edwards. And none fell farther as fast. John Edwards has the potential to be the sleeper candidate in 2008. He comes to this race with a lot of good will and fond memories. But he also comes to this race with Democratic opponents who are more engaging, more exciting and more original than he is. And those comparisons combined with the overall desire for something new might mean disaster for him." Sen.

Joe Biden's "stage presence drifts dramatically between all-star and below par. His matter-of-factness and incredible focus of his delivery are clearly his strong points, but voters complain of his propensity to sound like professor giving a lecture. He must do away with his written notes for his speeches. Democrats expressed a clear disconnect when he repeatedly looked down -- which also effected his pacing: another distracting tendency. He has all the pieces, but they're not yet put together."

Ex-VA Gov. Mark Warner starts "with a clean slate." His stump speech "as articulated at the National Press Club earlier this year, is about as good as it gets for Democratic primary voters. He started off with almost no support (or name ID) at both Iowa and New Hampshire sessions. But after the sessions, when all the candidates had been heard for ten minutes and all the positives and negatives of each candidate discussed by the participants, Warner had gained more ground than any other opponent. There is something real happening here."

Gov. Bill Richardson's story "is the complete package. The question is, is that enough? His resume, for those who know it, is perfect. He's an outsider with an insider's knowledge. But despite his stellar credentials and easy speaking style, his presentation is seen to be somewhat unfocused, and his greatest challenge is to prove that what he did in the small state of New Mexico can translate to a national stage. He's got a good message and the right platform, but the delivery isn't quite right -- yet."

Sen. Russ Feingold "may well become the Howard Dean of 2008. No one knows who he is. No one knows what he's done. Primary voters appreciate his principled positions, but they aren't ready to award him their vote."

Sen. Evan Byah "is probably the single toughest Democrat to analyze. His impact on primary voters was exactly the opposite of Hillary Clinton's. When she was done, voters either loved her or hated her. After seeing 20 minutes of Evan Bayh, there wasn't much love or hate. It was all ... like. They appreciated his down-to-earth appeal, but they wanted to see more passion. His ideas about tax fairness and reining in Washington's wasteful spending struck a chord -- even as they were complaining about his delivery. They appreciated his success as governor and how that qualified him for the presidency, even as they questioned his ability to win the election."

Gov. Tom Vilsack "is too focused on religion and spirituality for New Hampshire Democrats, and his home state doesn't take him seriously. The Iowa reaction was particularly telling. He should have a hometown advantage, but he doesn't. In fact, after viewing and discussing a Vilsack National Press Club speech, almost all the participants expressed surprise about his humor, intensity and passion. Apparently they don't see it at home."

Posted 03.30.06 03:51 PM | Comments (8)

Another Dem Superstar To Join Team Clinton

Sen. Hillary Clinton's Senate re-election campaign has just signed up another heavy-hitter.

Two sources close to the campaign confirm that Judith Litchman, an advocate for women and family legislation in Washington for decades, will join the campaign as a senior adviser.

Ann Lewis, the campaign Comm. Dir., e-mailed allies today with the news. Lewis: "I am so pleased to be able to tell you that Judy Lichtman will be joining Friends of Hillary as a Senior Advisor. Judy will be lending her expertise on work-family issues, which are so important to New York families, and her experience in working for social change, to the campaign."

Litchman is currently a senior adviser at the National Partnership for Women and Families. During the Clinton administration, she was often called one of the most influential Washington lobbyists/lawyers. She had the ear of both Pres. and Hillary Clinton. Lewis, in her e-mail, calls Litchman "the architect of the Family and Medical Leave Act, which has been relied on by more than 50 million women and men since it was enacted in 1993." [MARC AMBINDER]

Posted 03.30.06 03:28 PM | Comments (2)

Murray Waas: Insulating Bush

Karl Rove, President Bush's chief political adviser, cautioned other White House aides in the summer of 2003 that Bush's 2004 re-election prospects would be severely damaged if it was publicly disclosed that he had been personally warned that a key rationale for going to war had been challenged within the administration. Rove expressed his concerns shortly after an informal review of classified government records by then-Deputy National Security Adviser Stephen J. Hadley determined that Bush had been specifically advised that claims he later made in his 2003 State of the Union address -- that Iraq was procuring high-strength aluminum tubes to build a nuclear weapon -- might not be true, according to government records and interviews.

Posted 03.30.06 02:05 PM | Comments (1)

Get On Call E-Mail Alerts

Posted 03.30.06 01:30 PM | Comments (0)

West Virginia's 2008 GOP E-Primary

Attention Republican presidential candidates: add West Virginia to the calendar of early primary states for 2008 -- be prepared to start campaigning there early. State Republicans will select their 18 at-large delegates by participating in a multi-step process that begins in June of 2007 and ends in May of 2008. Most of the voting takes place online. In all likelihood, it'll vastly enhance West Virginia's role in the presidential nominating process for Republicans.

"They're going to have to get in there and get local people to tart supporting it," says state GOP chair Robin Capehart.

Beginning in Sept. of '07, Republicans will sign up online and receive from the state a username and password. (The names will be checked and rechecked and verified, Capehart said.) Then, between 11/1 and 11/30 of '07, those GOPers who want to be delegates to their county conventions will register with the state party.

Prospective presidential candidates must file with the WV SoS office in Dec. of '07 and also file a slate of delegates. Between 1/1 and 1/14 of 2008, Republicans will log on to the state party website and enter into their names and passwords. There, they'll be presented with a ballot listing their county's convention delegate choices. Each county gets to send one delegate per 1,000 residents (and an extra delegate for every four if the county went for Bush in '04).

Repbublicans not online can vote in person. Capehart: "The rules allow for every county to have a one-day convention. In these rural counties, you would basically go to a designated place, and there would be computers set up. Or they can do it by paper ballots."

Aside from the delegates chosen by GOPers in counties, members of the county executive committees, the state legislators and other special designees automatically become delegates -- so the candidates will need to recruit them as well. On 2/5, the day the window to select delegates for the Republican National Convention opens, WV GOPers will choose the 18 delegates from the hundreds selected at the country level. The vote that day is winner-take all. In a majority isn't produced in the first round of balloting, the candidates with the three highest vote totals proceed to a second round; if a majority isn't produced during the second round, then the top two candidates face off. Whoever wins a majority will see his or her delegate slate certified by the state party.

According to the rules: "National Delegates designated as At-Large shall be elected at the State Presidential Convention by a roll call vote of the counties by reference to the Presidential Candidate." That means that potential presidential candidates need to get started early. In order to have a chance to win, they need to convince potential county-level delegates to identify with their candidacy by November 30. (The county-level delegates don't have to be "McCain" delegates or "Romney" delegates, but if they are, voters will be able to choose them as McCain delegates or Romney delegates.) BTW: The state will select nine additional congressional district delegates (three per CD) in May. Once again, the presidential candidates will have to submit a slate of delegates to the Secretary of State in order to win them.

Capehart said he has consulted with internet security experts and has run his plan by the Republican National Committee. He said there are safeguards in place to protect against tampering and system failure.

Who has an edge in West Virginia? Sen. George Allen (R-VA) has neighboring state appeal, but Capehart said WV is "so regionalized" that outside the counties that border Virginia, it's an open field. Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA), he said, is popular in West Virginia's panhandle (it's in the Pittsburgh, PA market). And Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) is, to Capehart's recollection, the only potential candidate who has visited the state in recent years. [MARC AMBINDER]

Posted 03.30.06 12:02 PM | Comments (0)

The Futures Market: Ohio

What's the Hotline Futures Market? It's our exclusive look at the up-and-comers in every party in every state. You won't a list like this anywhere else. If you've missed a state, check out our archives.

After making in-roads into Toledo-based Lucas Co., GOPers suffered major set-backs when coin dealer Tom Noe was indicted for his role in both statewide and federal probes. In fact, GOPers around the state are in trouble, and not just thanks to Noe or disgraced Gov. Bob Taft (R). A number of GOPers laughed when we read them names of some of our '03 stars and told us that we needed a new list. Dems are giddy with anticipation for the election, and they seem to think they've got the candidates to pull out some big wins. Whether they follow through remains to be seen. [REID WILSON]

The stars we've been watching since '03:

Ex-Hamilton Co. Prosecutor Mike Allen (R): After a personal scandal, he resigned from office.

Sec/State Ken Blackwell (R): Perceived as the front-runner for the GOP Gov. nod after playing a big role in the Bush campaign in '04.

State Treasurer Jeanette Bradley (R): The former LG was appointed Treas. and is running for the seat in '06. She's a liberal GOPer, and might face problems in a primary if she seeks higher office.

Perry Co. Auditor Larry Householder (R): The former Speaker of the House, Blackwell once called Householder the "Prince of Darkness." He narrowly beat the incumbent auditor in his county after being forced out by term limits.

Toledo Auditor Larry Kaczala (R): After getting trounced in OH 09 against Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D), Kaczala is now running for judge. While the Toledo Co. GOPers have been particularly hard-hit by the Noe investigation, Kaczala is one of the very few not to be implicated in any way in the investigation, which raises his stock.

Auditor Betty Montgomery (R): She's "got a great future" after dropping a Gov bid and aiming instead for a return to the AG's office she once held.

AG Jim Petro (R): Running for Gov this year, he's declared that he's "up or out."

Lucas Co. Commis. Maggie Thurber (R): According to the indictment of Noe, she's one of 24 "conduits" Noe used to funnel money into the BC '04 campaign. Rumors among GOPers suggest she's "singing like a bird."

Cleveland Mayor Jane Campbell (D): After losing her bid for re-election in '05, she "fell off the radar screen fairly quickly."

Parma Mayor Dean DePiero (D): The former Min Leader is "a real player" in NE OH. "An excellent politician," he's considered a bid for statewide office and was on Rep./Gov. candidate Ted Strickland's (D) short list for LG.

Cuyahoga Co. Commis. Peter Lawson Jones (D): The Dems' LG nominee in '94, he's a "sharp guy, talented guy" but "he's not on a rocket to the top."

Franklin Co. Commis. Mary Jo Kilroy (D): "A rock-star," she's running against Rep. Deborah Pryce (R) in OH 15. After being "recruited heavily" by the DCCC, she's raising good money.

Cuyahoga Co. Prosecutor Bill Mason (D): "Has one of the strongest political organizations in" Cuyahoga Co. and gave a lot of thought to the AG's race. As 1 of 16 kids, Mason has "a profile that's going to be more and more important to" Dems. He could be a Gov candidate in '10.

Franklin Co. Clerk of Courts John O'Grady (D): Many think O'Grady doesn't have his eye on a statewide race yet, but that he's considering a race for Co. Commis.

State Rep. Chris Redfern (D): The new chair of the OH Dems and a close ally of Strickland, "he's going to run for something." His job with the party will let him maneuver himself into position to run for Congress or statewide in the future. He's also an "aggressive fundraiser."

Ex-Cincinnati Vice Mayor Alicia Reece (D): After getting knocked out of the Cincinnati mayor's race early and after publicly considering several statewide bids, she's got "a reputation as being kind of out there."

And the stars to watch in the future:

State Rep. Jon Husted (R): The Speaker of the House is in his early 40s. "He's got room to grow" and "he can go a lot of different places." Because his term limits are approaching, his choice to run for higher office may be forced sooner rather than later.

State Sen. Jeff Jacobsen (R): The Pres Pro Tem is "considered a very sharp political mind," and like Husted, encroaching term limits may force his hand.

State Sen. Jim Jordan (R): Running for Rep. Mike Oxley's (R) OH 04 seat he's more of a rural conservative and is seen as the frontrunner for the seat. He's got a very impressive warchest for a State Sen.

State Rep. Mary Taylor (R): After just a few terms in the House, she's running for Auditor unopposed in the GOP primary, which is "a feat in and of itself."

State Rep. Todd Book (D): The State House Asst Min Leader, he'd considered a bid for OH 02 and is expected to run for higher office. "A solid fundraiser," he will play a big role in '06 races.

State Sen. Kim Zurz (D): The Asst Min Leader is the odds-on favorite to be the next Min Leader. She's "smart. Very smart."

State Sen. Marc Dann (D): A candidate for AG, Dann is doing the most to attack GOPers for scandals they've been involved in. He's "very aggressive, very good with the press." However, some think his shelf-life on the up and comers list may be short.

State Rep. John Boccieri (D): A member of the Air Force Reserve, after multiple tours in Iraq, he's running for State Sen. and is seen as a potential Cong. candidate. He'd been urged to run for Sec/State but "just waited too long" because he was only recently decommissioned. The DCCC had encouraged him to run for Strickland's OH 06 seat. A great retail politician, he "takes control of a room when he walks in."

Franklin Co. Commis. Rich Cordray (D): The heavy favorite to win the Dem nod for State Treas., he "really wants to be gov some day, and he's making the right moves."

Posted 03.30.06 10:53 AM | Comments (3)

On Call's Buzz And Rankings

The Hard Cell: If Missouri is the epicenter of the GOP's internal debate over stem-cell research, then the frontline of that fight is the St. Louis suburbs, where Rep. Todd Akin (R) has drawn a primary challenger with a stem-cell story to tell.
John Mercurio's Politiscope.

New polling data on immigration suggests Americans' attitudes are more complicated than they seem -- and legislators will need to toe a careful line.
Charlie Cook's Off To The Races.

Mitt Romney and John Edwards have some extra time on their hands lately, and it might be helping their potential presidential candidacies. Each climbed up a notch to the No. 2 spot this week in the second round of rankings to measure which candidates are most likely to get their parties' nomination for the White House in 2008.
Chuck Todd's White House Rankings.

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WHITE HOUSE '08
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Hotline editor-in-chief Chuck Todd's exclusive White House '08, Senate, Governor, and House Race rankings and analysis, updated regularly.

Posted 03.30.06 10:00 AM | Comments (0)

Hotline After Dark: What You Missed On Wednesday's Chat Shows

In case you were watching the "George Lopez Show," we were watching the cable news nets:

"Special Report" led with the U.N.'s statement on Iran and its nuclear program. And on the day Jack Abramoff was sentenced, the Senate passed lobbyist reform, causing FNC's Major Garrett to remark: "There's no self-congratulation quite like senatorial self-congratulation."

Then Gov. Bill Richardson (D-NM) stopped by to talk about immigration. Richardson: "For the Republican Party, they run the risk, if they push this extreme border security measure, that pass the House with the making a felony and the wall, that will erode the little increase they've had in support among Hispanic voters" (FNC, 3/29).

"Situation Room" also led with the U.N.'s statement on Iran. Sen. Ted Kennedy (D-MA) was on to talk about immigration: "It's not going to be easy. Whenever you get the issues on immigration, it's highly volatile, like civil rights issues, but this is something that is in the immediate interest of our country and the long term interest of our nation" (CNN, 3/29).

Lou Dobbs was in Cancun and his show was all about immigration. And Anderson Cooper anchored "AC 360" from Nogales, AZ, to talk about border security.

"Hardball" wondered if Pres. Bush's is now "paying attention to the paper, the polls and the pundits." MSNBC's David Shuster: "The president himself now seems to understand that his low approval numbers carry an impact, and that his long indifference to Washington's political and media culture, may now have to be pushed aside."

Sen. George Allen (R-VA) was a guest and we learned that he calls Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) "commodore." And his mother came to this country (legally) from Tunisia, North Africa. MSNBC's Chris Matthews: "So you're part Arab?" Allen: "No, she's Italian, French and a little Spanish." More from Allen: "She speaks Arabic, as well as French and Italian."

And then Sen. Trent Lott (R-MS) was on and called for the WH to bring in more staffers. Lott: "They should bring in some new experienced hands in a variety of places. I suggested Slade Gorton would be an excellent counselor, policy adviser." Matthews: "He's one of your singers, isn't he?" Lott: "No, Slade can't even carry a tune" (MSNBC, 3/29).

Rep. Harold Ford Jr. (D-TN) was on "Countdown" to talk about the '06 election: "It will be incumbent upon us candidates for Senate, for Congress, all across the country, to lay out a positive and constructive set of criticisms of what this administration has tried to do, or criticisms of what they have done, and how they have not measured up to what they wanted to measure up to" (MSNBC, 3/29).

"O'Reilly Factor" had on Barbra Streisand biographer Christopher Andersen. FNC's Bill O'Reilly was strongly defensive of Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) as he questioned Anderson about reports HRC was upset after Streisand spent the night at the WH. Here are some of his questions to Anderson:

O'Reilly: "The senator is not on the record anywhere as saying she was annoyed by Streisand's appearance while she was away with her father, correct?"

More from O'Reilly: "So you're relying on people who told you this? ... I'm worried that anybody can tell you anything to get even with anybody."

O'Reilly: "Rumors about President Clinton are rife all over the place. I mean, the guy would be in a jar if we believe all the rumors about them. And I don't know how fair it is to imply that he had an affair with this woman, Barbra Streisand. I don't know if that's fair" (FNC, 3/29). [EMILY GOODIN]

Posted 03.30.06 07:47 AM | Comments (1)

March 29, 2006

The Education Governor....er, President?

Gov. Mitt Romney stopped in DC this afternoon after making good on his NFL bet last night in Denver. He gave a power point presentation on education to a standing room only crowd at the American Enterprise Institute. In what he called the "civil rights issue of our time," the Massachusetts Republican laid out a series of education initiatives that he said were effective in his state, emphasizing parental involvement (including teaching abstinence education) and measuring improvement through testing).

Romney touted his state's high marks for both English and math, charter schools and teacher incentives. Taking a page right out from Bush's SOTU playbook, Romney added that "being number one in American doesn't mean you're number one in the world." However he heavily emphasized bi-partisanship in the issue, saying though Dems have considered education a blue issue in the past it really goes "across party lines."

When asked by reporters about exiting Bush CoS Andy Card, Romney said he chatted with the MA native just yesterday regarding his future plans. Though he welcomes him to MA politics ("I don't think Sen. Kennedy has an opponent..."), he knows Card is looking forward to a long rest. Might be time for Andy to take up residence in Nantucket...
[SHIRA R. TOEPLITZ].

Posted 03.29.06 05:10 PM | Comments (1)

Last Call: McKinney Punches Police Officer

As first reported in Hotline's Last Call!:

Rep. Cynthia McKinney (D-GA) punched a U.S. Capitol Police officer today after he mistakenly pursued her for failing to pass through a metal detector.

Members are not required to pass through metal detectors and the officer, manning a position at Longworth House Office Building, apparently did not recognize McKinney and didn't see her Member pin.

The officer called out "Ma'am, Ma'am," in an attempt to stop her.

When the officer caught up to McKinney, he grabbed her by the arm.

McKinney pulled her arm away, swung around, cell phone in hand, and punched the officer square in the chest, according to the witness.

McKinney's office did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Posted 03.29.06 04:25 PM | Comments (66)

Brownback Raises Immig. Hardliner Hackles

Does the conservative base love Sen. Sam Brownback? Convention wisdom says -- yeah. But here's one major obstacle: he's not a hardliner on immigration reform. He favors a guest worker program.

Conservative activists are in an e-mail frenzy over Brownback's vote in favor of adding a guest working provision to the Senate Judiciary Committee's mark-up of a comprehensive immigration bill.

"THIS IS AN ALL POINTS BULLETIN," shouts an e-mail from Oklahoma Republican Assembly Pres. Tim Pope.

"Be on the lookout for any self-respecting conservative Republican who is interested in opposing the 'open door' immigration policy being shoved through the United States Senate. US Senator Sam Brownback -- R?' Kansas sided with the Democrats on the Judiciary committee and helped them water down the tough anti-illegal immigration bill when it hit their committee. It is now, basically, an amnesty bill for those who have snubbed their collective noses at our American law while they say they have to come here to make a living for their family."

Pope urges conservatives to protest Brownback's appearance at an OK GOP fundraiser in 4/18.

Writes Pope: "We must let State GOP Chairman Gary Jones know that this type of behavior should not be rewarded with a special appearance in front of our party faithful -- since the Senator has trouble understanding what that really means."

Pope says he'll organize a protest if Brownback shows up.

Posted 03.29.06 03:46 PM | Comments (0)

On The Trail: The Glass Is Half Full For The GOP?

We're another month closer to Election Day 2006 and things continue to look bad for the incumbent party. But in the spirit of trying to find good news in a sea of bad, there's a bright side that deserves a mention for the GOP. Iraq, of course, is conspicuously absent.

While things are getting worse for Republicans on the federal level, due in large part to Iraq, developments in some key governor's races indicate it's possible 2006 could mirror 2002. During the last midterm cycle, Democrats did poorly in federal races but made some significant gains on the state level, including Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Arizona and Wyoming. [CHUCK TODD]

Read On The Trail

Posted 03.29.06 12:04 PM | Comments (1)

Conceived In IA, Born In, Darn It, California

Not to pick on George Allen... but the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is joyfully distributing a piece of video wherein Allen joshingly tells an Iowa audience that he wishes he was born in Iowa.

(He was born in California although his parents, er, created him, in Sioux City.)

(Click the play button on the video above or right-click here and select Save As to download the video. Windows Media version only available at this time.)

Looks like Senator Allen is not only bored with the Senate, he's also bored with the entire Commonwealth of Virginia

Posted 03.29.06 11:01 AM | Comments (1)

Meet John Cox

While waiting for Sen. Sam Brownback to speak at the War on Christians Conference in [the heart of Babylon] Washington today, we came across another presidential candidate who hopes he can seed his '08 aspirations among Christian conservatives.

John Cox has already been to Iowa. He went to New Hampshire, generating more coverage than Sen. Chuck Hagel. He already has an e-mail list. A campaign manager with an Alan Keyes pedigree. A website with comparisons to fellow IL'er Abe Lincoln. A platform. And even a base.

Who?

He was born and raised in Chicago, IL (on the South Side, to boot -- before the renaissance), the son of a letter carrier and a teacher. He made his money as a lawyer and a venture capitalist. He is somewhat well-known to Republicans in Chicago and even ran for Senate in 2002 -- he got a fifth of the vote in the GOP primary.

Craig Bergman is Cox's campaign manager. His opening argument, aimed at those who wonder, is that because Cook County has "more people than Iowa, South Carolina and New Hampshire combined," Cox is better known than, say, Tom Vilsack, Iowa's governor.

That's a base of 2 million, easy, he says. (Cook County has about 5.4 million residents; IA, NH and SC have at least 8 million between them.)

The strategy from here on out is conventional for an unconventional candidate. Bergman scours donor lists in early primary states on the web and Cox pays to send them postcards highlighting his next appearances.

He's headed to South Carolina next week. How is he planning? Bergman bends down behind a desk and pulls out a sheaf of paper. "Right here," he says, pointing to it. "We get the whole map from Mapquest and then I figure out the distances [between cities]. Then we say, "John would come to come to your town." And the invariable response is "who??" [With an extra question mark!]

That's an opening if Bergman ever saw one.

Cox is pro-life. ("The only candidate in the race who is totally pro-life," Bergman claims. He's an NRA member. He's against same-sex marriage and civil unions. He's against government regulation. On trade, he uses the "free and fair" formulation, which suggests he's a mite more protectionist than the conservative consensus.

So -- what distinguishes him from the field? "The rest of the field are career politicians," says Bergman. Cox spent a small part of his late twenties on a Glenview, IL school board. That's the extent of his elected experience.

Cox is on the conservative conference and caucus circuit. He was at CPAC in February; he's been to a dozen county caucuses in Iowa and will return there in April.

Bergman has a scoop: he says Cox will kick off his campaign officially on April 17 in front of the IRS building in Washington. There, he'll call for a complete abolition of the income tax. [MARC AMBINDER]

Posted 03.29.06 10:30 AM | Comments (6)

McCain/Marriage Amendment

We read with interest that Sen. John McCain was considering a vote in favor of the Federal Marriage Amendment to the constitution. Sen. Bill Frist will call the measure to the Senate floor in June.

But in today's Note, we learn from the intrepid Teddy Davis, who managed to somehow catch up to Rev. Jerry Falwell, that McCain "is not pushing for a federal constitutional ban on gay marriage at this time. Instead, McCain 'reconfirmed' to Falwell during a recent telephone conversation that he would support a federal marriage amendment if the federal courts were to strike down state constitutional bans on gay marriage (like the one McCain is currently backing in his home state of Arizona). 'I think he is genuinely a state's righter and so am I,' Falwell told ABC News."

Posted 03.29.06 08:59 AM | Comments (0)

Hotline After Dark

For those who watched too much "Scrubs" and not enough of cable news.

Most of the shows led with Andy Card's resignation -- although Lou Dobbs still led with immigration. A lot of ex-WH CoSes made appearances, giving their takes on Card and new CoS Josh Bolton.

Some quick ledes and takes:

MSNBC's Stewart: "If you want fries with that shakeup, well, you're only going to get the 'taters" ("Countdown," 3/28).

CNN's Malveaux: "The big question remains whether or not his departure will help rejuvenate President Bush's agenda. Some GOP strategists are skeptical -- one of them telling me that a White House staff change will not bring victory in Iraq any time sooner" ("AC 360," 3/28).

FNC's Cameron: "On major domestic and foreign policy issues, the president has made it clear he has no intention of changing course. And while he recognizes public misgivings, the president argues that what he really needs to do is better explain his decisions and policies, not change them" ("Special Report," 3/28).

CNN's J. King: "I talked to a very senior Republican strategist very close to this White House, and he called this replacing Tweedle-Dee with Tweedle-Dum" ("AC 360," 3/28).

DEMS SAY ...

Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL) got out the Dem response in a "Situation Room" appearance: "I don't think he comes to this job with a great set of credentials. But I want to give him a chance. You know, the bottom line is, if the president of the United States is going to lead this country in a new direction, which they are begging for, then he needs a new approach, a new team, maybe a new set of political values" (CNN, 3/26).

MORE TO COME?

CNN also ran an interview Pres. Bush gave to CNN en Espanol's Juan Carlos Lopez. Most of the interview was about the upcoming summit in Cancun (no word if Bush will party at Senor Frogs with Lou Dobbs) but he was asked if there were more staff changes coming, Bush: "Josh has just begun to take a look at the White House structure. And I haven't had a chance to talk to him about the future yet. But right now I'm honoring and celebrating the service of Andy Card" ("Situation Room," 3/28).

NBC's Gregory: "The president has been very clear that Josh Bolten will have a free hand, meaning that other changes may come" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 3/28).

Weekly Standard's Kristol: "This is the first of a series of changes. And I think we could end up with a much more combative and aggressive administration than we've had in the last few months" ("Special Report," FNC, 3/28).

Pat Buchanan: "I have to think ... that it's probably the beginning of a lot of changes in the White House and maybe one or two in the cabinet. I think the president has clearly got the message" ("Situation," MSNBC, 3/28).

HEY '08ers, IT PAYS TO HAVE AN ISSUE

And Rep. Tom Tancredo (R-CO) was on "Situation Room," "Hannity & Colmes" and "The Situation" to talk about immigration. [EMILY GOODIN]

Posted 03.29.06 07:12 AM | Comments (2)

March 28, 2006

Margin For Error: The Bush Base

From last Friday's Hotline:

There's a world out there where Pres. Bush can do no wrong. He's viewed favorably by nearly everyone, his approval rating is 100% and he'd win a third term, if possible, without breaking a sweat.

This is Bush's base (approx. 45% of the entire GOP). According to the latest Diageo/Hotline poll, they're older (more than half are over 55 which translates into being "very likely" midterm voters), go to church weekly, and almost all of them are white. They oppose abortion rights, and, like VP Cheney himself, they listen to Rush and O'Reilly. And while DC is abuzz with talk that the faithful are weary and fractured, the poll shows they'll be a force at the ballot box.

In '08, they're not looking for a renegade, but someone who more fits the Bush. They're not huge fans of McCain, who leads the list of GOPers they'd never support. Among Bush's base, McCain trails
Giuliani in '08 matchups.

Also, note how a plurality of all GOPers think Bush has been a worse president than Reagan. But among the most die-hard Bushies, most think he's been as good or better. [AOIFE MCCARHTY]

The information below is from the 3/23 Diageo/Hotline poll. The sample size for Strong Bush approvers is 273. * note that religions which did not register (Muslim/Islamic, Buddhist, and Hindu were not included in this listing.

Most Impt Issue Facing Nation? Fav/Unfav -StrgApp- -All GOP- War In Iraq, Support 20% Fav/Unfav Fav/Unfav Economy in general 15 Bush 99%/--% 84%/14% Terrorism 12 Cheney 93 / 3 76 /16 Moral values 6 McCain 60 /23 62 /20 Immigration, illegal aliens 4 Fear of war 4 Bush As Pres. StrgApp AllGOP Taxes 3 Approve 85% 80% War in Iraq, Oppose 3 Disapprove 47 18 Abortion, pro-life 3 Ethics,religious decline 2 Re-Elect Rep? StrgApp AllGOP Health care 2 Re-elect member 42% 37% Unemployment/jobs 1 Consider other 15 18 High cost of living 1 Vote to replace 15 15 Social Security 1 Avian flu 1 Bush Done Better/Worse Than ___As Fuel/oil prices 1 Pres.? RWR GWH RMN DDE Education 1 Better 27% 55% 78% 32% Int'l issues 1 Worse 19 5 6 6 Dissatisfaction w/gov't 1 Same 47 37 7 34 Drugs/Medicare issues 1 Environment/pollution 1 If Bush Could Run Again, Likelihood You'd Vote For Him? StrgApp AllGOP WH '08 GOP Primary Very likely 81% 45% 1st 2nd Combo Smwht likely 12 23 Rudy Giuliani 24% 20% 44% Smwht unlikely 2 10 John McCain 17 16 33 Very unlikely 2 15 Newt Gingrich 10 13 23 Bill Frist 8 10 18 Best Describes Why You Would Vote Mitt Romney 5 5 10 For ___? JM RG George Pataki 1 6 7 Know stance/agree on issues 46% 55% George Allen 5 6 11 Best qualified 24 16 Tom Tancredo 1 2 3 Best chance beating Dem 10 17 Chuck Hagel * - * Not heard much about others 13 11 Undec/Oth 29 22 51 Best Chance Of Beating ___? NEVER Vote For In GOP WH Primary? DemNom HRC John McCain 16% Rudy Giuliani 20% 19% George Pataki 15 John McCain 20 16 Newt Gingrich 13 Condoleezza Rice 20 21 Jeb Bush 6 Jeb Bush 5 6 Rudy Giuliani 6 Bill Frist 5 5 Chuck Hagel 5 George Allen 4 3 Bill Frist 5 Newt Gingrich 2 3 Tom Tancredo 4 Mitt Romney 2 3 Condoleezza Rice 4 George Pataki 2 * George Allen 3 Chuck Hagel 2 - Mitt Romney 2 Tom Tancredo 1 * Undec/Oth 41 Undec/Oth 19 25

2-Way GOP WH Primary Which Of Following Are Most Regular
StrgApp AllGOP Sources For News? StrgApp AllGOP
Giuliani 49% 42% Fox News 46% 39%
McCain 35 40 Local newspapers 23 27
Undec/Oth 17 17 Local TV news 23 27
Radio talk shows 22 17
People You Talk Politics W/Most? Nightly network news 19 21
StrgApp AllGOP Internet 17 19
Almost all GOPers 16% 14%
Most GOP, few Dem 35 31 Which Commentators Do You Rely On
Equal GOP/Dem 34 36 Most For Current Event Info?
Most Dem, few GOP 3 5 StrgApp AllGOP
Almost all Dems 2 2 Bill O'Reilly 34% 32%
Rush Limbaugh 33 23
Abortion Stance StrgApp AllGOP Sean Hannity 23 22
General avail 14% 19% Joe Scarborough 7 4
Avail w/more limits 17 19 Chris Matthews 5 7
Illegal w/exception 40 38 George Will 5 7
Not allowed at all 23 17 Bob Novak 4 3
Tucker Carlson 3 3
Age StrgApp AllGOP
18-24 5% 4% Race StrgApp AllGOP
25-34 7 10 White 89% 89%
35-44 14 16 Hispanic 3 2
45-54 17 19 Asian 2 1
55-64 25 23 Black 1 1
65-74 20 17 Native American 1 1
75+ 9 9 Other 2 2

Religion* StrgApp AllGOP Attend Religious Services Strg All
Protestant 60% 57% Every day 7% 5%
Catholic 23 23 Once a week 54 47
Jewish * 1 1-2/month 14 16
No affliation 2 5 1-2/year 7 10
Mormon 2 2 Only on holidays 3 4
Atheist/Agnostic 1 1 Never 5 9
Other 4 4

Looking solely at demographics, staunch Bush supporters are typically caucasian (89%), over the age of 45 (62%), protestant (60%), and attend religious services regularly. Trending socially conservative, morality is a top concern for them. But when it comes to casting a vote for their next POTUS, they are not looking for a renegade, but someone who more fits into the mold of Bush. 81% say they are "very likely" to re-elect Bush if he was eligible to run for POTUS again and 99% approve of the job Bush is doing as pres.

Looking at the series of WH matchups, Bush supporters pick ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) over Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) every time. In the 2-way primary it becomes even more apparent when Giuliani holds a 14 point lead. The X-factor in all of this is whether Giuliani will actually run. Even if he decides against a bid for WH '08, Guiliani could serve as a seat warmer until someone equally as attractive to the base builds name ID.

This is not to say that McCain is in poor standing with the GOP base. This is a very different John McCain now than we saw in '00. In '00, McCain was Bush's adversary. He ran largely against the GOP establishment and embraced his position as a maverick of the party. Now McCain is standing up for the admin. and even standing with Bush on the war and on the Dubai ports deal. If McCain continues down this path, and can get the support of Bush, there is no telling what kind of in-roads he could make in the coveted GOP base.

Posted 03.28.06 05:22 PM | Comments (3)

RNC Memo Warns GOPers Not To Distance Themselves From Bush

Republican pollster Jan van Lohuizen, in a memo written for RNC chairman Ken Mehlman, warns that if members of Congress try to drive a wedge between themselves and Pres. Bush, it'd be akin to adding weight to an anchor. GOpers are "W Brand Republicans" whether they like it or not. And van Louhizen, who has polled (often secretly) for the Bush White House under the RNC aegis for years, is worried about low turnout.

Time Magazine first reported on the memo this weekend, but the full text is below.

---------------
Memorandum

To: Ken Mehlman
From: Jan van Lohuizen
Date: March 3, 2006
Re: Bush -- Congressional Republicans

Per our conversation, we took another look at the way voters, Republicans specifically, link President Bush and Republicans in the House and the Senate. There are several points worth making:

1. President Bush continues to have the strong loyal support of Republican voters. Despite slippage in approval ratings among all voters, the President's job approval among Republicans continues to be very high. Most members will be elected with between 80% and 100% of their support coming from Republicans. I don't see that Republicans driving a wedge between themselves and the President is a good election strategy.

2. My read of the current environment is that our problem will be turnout. '06 could become an election like '82 or '84. In '82 Republicans showed up at relatively normal turnout rates, while Democrats, because they were angry, showed up at abnormally high turnout rates. In '94, Republican turnout was elevated, while Democratic turnout was depressed. We have every reason to believe '06 could become the inverse of '82. We don't see signs of a depressed Republican turnout yet, but we have every reason to believe Democrats will turn out in high numbers. Anything we do to depress turnout, by not running as a unified party for instance, could very well lead to serious consequences in November.

3. The President is seen universally as the face of the Republican Party. We are now brand W. Republicans. The following chart shows the extremely close correlation between the President’s image and overall ratings of the party.

President Bush drives our image and will do so until we have real national front-runners for the '08 nomination. Attacking the President is counter productive for all Republicans, not just the candidates launching the attacks. If he drops, we all drop.

Posted 03.28.06 03:30 PM | Comments (51)

Wadhams to Manage Allen's Senate Campaign

Dick Wadhams, the chief of staff for Sen. George Allen (R-VA) will take a leave of absence from Allen's congressional office to manage his tougher-than-expected re-election campaign in Virginia.

He'll start on 4/10.

Allen faces Democrats Harris Miller (D), a lobbyist, and James Webb, a former Republican and Navy Secretary. Both challengers are expected to raise millions. Allen defeated ex-VA Gov. Charles Robb (D) in 2000.

Wadhams, touted as "Karl Rove's Heir Apparent" by too many publications to list, is a tough and experienced veteran of Senate races. He ran now-Sen. John Thune's successful bid to kick out Sen. Tom Daschle. Before that, he rescued Sen. Wayne Allard in CO. Wadhams joined Allen shortly after the '04 election to much fanfare about his political prowess.

He replaced Allen's long-time chief of staff Jay Timmons, now at the National Association of Manufacturers.

Also in Allen's inner circle: ex-RNC chairman Ed Gillespie, who is his PAC treasurer, and Chris LaCivita, Allen's top nuts-and-bolts strategist.

Jason Miller, who was tending Allen's campaign, left late last year to manage SC Gov. Mark Sanford's re-election.

No word yet on Wadhams's temporary replacement.

Posted 03.28.06 03:06 PM | Comments (3)

Remembering Nofziger and Weinberger

Two giants of American politics and government -- both Republicans -- have died.

Here is how Lyn Nofziger described himself on his website. "If you're looking for a female exhibitionist with a digital camera you've come to the wrong place."

"I am a Californian, a World War II army veteran, a former newspaperman, a politician and the author of four published Western novels. ... I served in Ronald Reagan's governor's office and White House and in Richard Nixon's White House. I have run and participated in numerous political campaigns, including five for president, and have won some and lost some. Once I even worked at the Republican National Committee. I am a Republican because I believe that freedom is more important than government-provided security. Sometimes I wish I were a Democrat because Democrats seem to have more fun. At other times I wish I were a Libertarian because Republicans are too much like Democrats."

Darren Grubb, vice president of federal relations at Bryan Cave Strategies, tells us he met Nofsifger late in life, "though not early enough in mine."

Writes Grubb: "In all of time spent with Lyn, I always took away far more than I ever had capacity to reciprocate. His wisdom and insights into matters of politics and personalities and human relationships were of more than great interest to me, they were of great guidance."

"The most important lessons I learned from him were the one he exemplified every day, as those who knew him and worked with him can attest: never take yourself too seriously, never let the intoxicating whims of DC culture alter your convictions or inflate your self-importance, and always serve the greater good above your own self interests."

Reaction to the death of Caspar Weinberger comes from NY SEN candidate KT FcFarland, who worked for him: "Cap Weinberger was a giant of our times and one of the men on whose shoulders rested the defense of the free world. He was one of President Reagan's first and most steadfast supporters, and the man to whom President Reagan turned to rebuild America's military in the 1980's. As a result of his efforts, the United States was able to deal with the Soviet Union from a position of strength, which ultimately resulted in the collapse of the Soviet Empire, the defeat of Communism and America's victory in the Cold War -- all without firing a shot or losing one life."

Posted 03.28.06 01:17 PM | Comments (0)

TEXAS: SO BIG, yet so small

At least politically speaking.

The judge tasked with hearing Comp/GOV candidate Carole Keeton Strayhorn's (I) ballot access lawsuit has recused himself from the case.

Not only are he and his wife friends with Scott and Mark's mom, but Judge and Mrs. Sam Sparks also signed the petition to get Strayhorn on the ballot.

Posted 03.28.06 01:12 PM | Comments (0)

The Futures Market: North Dakota

No one understands ND. Just 2 of 10 state constitutional officers are Dems and GOPers have held the Gov's mansion since '92. GOPers outnumber Dems more than 2-1 in the state legislature. And yet the delegation to DC is made up of nothing but Dems? GOPers recognize the challenge of beating politicians as popular as Sens. Byron Dorgan and Kent Conrad and Rep. Earl Pomeroy, especially when a top-tier candidate like Gov. John Hoeven (R) takes a pass on the race. But GOPers know that, once the incumbents step down, their party would be the front-runners to retake the seats. And they've already started paying attention to who those front-runners would be. [REID WILSON]

The stars we've been watching since '03:

House Maj Leader Rick Berg (R): The former Speaker remains prominent. "People would like him to" run, but he's got a young family that is currently his main focus.

PSC Pres. Tony Clark (R): Running for re-election in '06, he's without an opponent thusfar. He's "considered a comer for the future" by everyone we spoke to.

PSC member Kevin Cramer (R): After losing bids for Congress in '96 and '98, he was elected to his first full term as a PSC member in '04. He just passed on a Sen bid, but is considered "much more bankable" after his previous statewide experience. He's said to be good at campaigning and at the policy side of things.

State Tax Commis. Cory Fong (R): After serving as Dep Sec/State, Fong was appointed by Gov. John Hoeven (R). He's now running for the rest of the term and GOPers "can't say enough about him."

State Rep. RaeAnn Kelsch (R): Chair of House Ed Cmte, she may be a future candidate for House or Sen. She's "articulate" and "bright."

Ex-Gov. Ed Schafer aide Julie Liffrig (R): She's back in the private sector.

Insurance Commis. Jim Poolman (R): Had been urged to run against Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D), he's "one of the leaders in the state and nationwide on insurance issues."

AG Wayne Stenehjem (R): The highest vote-getter statewide in '04, he may not want to move up. He's "happy where he is right now."

ND GOP Exec. Dir. Jason Stverak (R): Is considering a bid for office in the future and has "great knowledge of the political environment" in ND.

State Rep. Amy Warnke (R): Retired from the House and is now back to private sector.

U.S. Atty Drew Wrigley (R): The former aide to Hoeven is "a potential superstar. His "stock keeps going higher and higher." People talk of a future bid for Gov or Sen with near-certainty.

Cass Co. State's Atty Birch Burdick (D): The son of two former U.S. Sens (mother Jocelyn replaced father Quentin when he died in '92), he's resisted overtures to run for statewide office. "The name is still magic."

State Sen. April Fairfield (D): Beat an incumbent in '02, many "won't be surprised to see her on the statewide ballot this year." "Head and shoulders above a lot of the other folks out there."

State Rep. Pam Gulleson (D): The Asst Min leader and aide to Sen. Byron Dorgan (D) "possibly will be looked at for statewide office in the near future."

State Sen. Joel Heitkamp (D): Ran unopposed in his last election, he now hosts a regional talk show in the Upper Midwest and Manitoba. "If the caucus wants to talk to the federal folks, Heitkamp's the guy they send." He's the brother of '00 Gov nom/ex-AG Heidi Heitkamp.

Atty Jason Henderson (D): A member of the Dem State Cmte, he's still "a couple of years away from making a race."

Stanley Mayor Tim Holte (D): His name is mentioned as a candidate for statewide office, and is said to be considering a future bid.

Atty Tim Purdon (D): Chair of the Bismarck Dem Council, he was encouraged to run for AG but demurred. Party leaders are confident he'll make a bid eventually, because he "has some potential for bigger and better things."

State Rep. Ryan Taylor (D): Described as a cowboy/singer/songwriter/author, he "made quite an impression" in his first term. He's got "the greatest potential to be a big star." Says one source: "We love Ryan."

And the stars to watch in the future:

State Sen. Nick Hacker (R): At 24, Hacker was the only challenger to beat an incumbent Dem in '04. "People are looking at him" as "someone who should" make a bid. He's a "fresh face in the party."

State Sen. Tony Grindberg (R): "One of the brighter legislators," people say he'd have the ability to be elected to higher office if he wanted to, though some question his ambitions. He's got the "talents needed to be successful."

Bismarck Mayor John Warford (R): He "really shook up the market and has done some dramatic things." Warford is credited with turning the city into, according to the WSJ, one of the retail hotbeds in the country. He "makes a lot of sense."

Dickinson Mayor Dennis Johnson (R): If he ever wanted to, say our sources, he would have a future. He's "rising to the surface"

Ex-AG Heidi Heitkamp (D): After losing an '00 bid to Hoeven, she's still a "probable" candidate for Gov in '08. The former tax commis. is "one of the more popular" Dems in ND. Her brother, Joel, remains in the State Sen.

State Rep. Shirley Meyer (D): Elected in '04 in GOP district, she "has been mentioned" for statewide office. "She has potential," says another source.

Devils' Lake Fred Bott (D): After his 12th year as mayor, he's "ready to make the leap into state politics."

Fargo School Board Member Arlette Preston (D): A former City Councillor and a candidate for Mayor in '06, she's the only Dem in a winner-take-all race. She could feasibly be the first Dem Mayor of Fargo. Some believe she'll be fed candidate material down the road.

Posted 03.28.06 11:25 AM | Comments (1)

The Cautious Conservative Blogosphere Reacts

Powerline's Hinderaker : "I doubt that the change will make any difference, except maybe cosmetically, but it may satisfy some of those who have been demanding "change" in the administration." He titles his post "Yawn."

The directors at Red State are similarly nonplussed but a bit more hopeful. "Andy Card has served the President well for more than five years. We cannot, however, say that he has served conservatives or the Republican party well. He is, among other things, fingered as the man behind the Harriet Miers nomination that caused a fracture in the base and emboldened conservatives to fight the President. He also deserves some blame for the mishandling of the Dubai Ports Deal. Rumored for a month, it is about time Mr. Card resigned. We are looking forward to Mr. Bolten's tenure in the office of White House Chief of Staff. Mr. Bolten has been in the Office of Management and Budget where he has privately been a reasonable voice willing to control spending. We have been disappointed with the budget process as led by the White House, but we understand that Mr. Bolten favors more restraints and executive action to control and cut spending than Mr. Card ever did. The President appears to have listened to those who think the White House needs new blood and new ideas. Mr. Bolten has been a forward thinker and we welcome him to the job. While the President suffers from lame duck syndrome and a stagnant administration at present, we should remember that at this point in his administration, Reagan was the same way. He then picked a new Chief of Staff, turned a corner, and revitalized his Presidency. We hope for the same from President Bush."

The Wonkette boys publish a picture of Bolten with his Harley and note that he was at the "front lines" of the Social Security fight in '05.

The Carpetbagger writes that "part of the underlying message Republicans had sent the president about getting rid of Card was bringing in someone who could offer Bush new ideas and a different approach to governing. Bolten is another Bush insider, who'll likely keep the White House moving in the same direction its been going." More Carpetbagger: "Bolten has sold reckless tax cuts as fiscal responsibility, defended absurd budget tricks as sensible governing, argued falsely that tax cuts can pay for themselves, made demonstrably-false claims about the budget deficit, and embraced misleading scare tactics to promote privatization of Social Security. Bolten also made quite an impression with a memo last year arguing that the administration could ignore legal restrictions and spend as much as it pleases on fake news segments and pundit payola."

Posted 03.28.06 11:21 AM | Comments (0)

Hotline After Dark

What you missed on the chat shows...

"Hardball" led off with a David Shuster piece on how the admin is dealing with Iraq in light of the latest bombings and the British memo on the war's origins: "The latest revelation could further damage the president politically and it might make it even tougher for the public to believe what the people who took us into Iraq say about the situation there now."

After Shuster's piece aired, author Philippe Sands, ex-Clinton CoS John Podesta, and Pat Buchanan discussed the British memo. Other pundits on the show were USA Today's Page, Congressional Quarterly's Crawford and National Journal's Cook. Besides the British memo and the situation in Iraq, Hillary Clinton was also discussed.

Podesta was also in the "Situation Room" along with ex-Rep. J.C. Watts and Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX). Cornyn: "A third of my constituents are Hispanics. And they don't want amnesty, because they believe that those who have played by the rules, who have come to the country legally, shouldn't have to compete with workers who have violated our immigration laws by pressing their wages down or competing for those jobs." [EMILY GOODIN]

Gov. Bill Richardson (D-NM) was also in the "Situation Room" to discuss immigration. Richardson: "I believe what the Senate did, the committee, is realistic. It's along the lines of what the president supported. Whether it survives, I'm concerned that it won't."

"Special Report" led with immigration. FNC's Garrett: "The Senate Judiciary Committee did not tackle the biggest issues it was facing, meaning a guest-working program or a path to legalization for millions of illegal aliens already here in America."

FNC's Cameron added: "The White House still says there is an outside chance they can get the measure in the Senate Judiciary Committee amended on the Senate floor to include the guest-worker program. The president never said he would veto a stand-alone border security measure without it. To some extent, that has emboldened his GOP opponents to the worker program who believe that in a post 9/11 era, in an election year, the president would not veto a stand alone bill."

The "Special Report" roundtable discussed immigration and the political fallout of Iraq.

"Lou Dobbs Tonight" was all about immigration. CNN's Dobbs: "There's no certainty tonight that Congress will be able to pass any kind of substantive, significant immigration reform this midterm election year. Senate leaders are bitterly divided on giving new protections to illegal aliens." Rep. James Sensenbrenner (R-WI) was a guest.

The top five stories on "Countdown" were immigration, the Dubai ports deal, George Mason's cinderella story, the Rev. Winkler shooting, and an interview with Michael Schiavo.

FNC's O'Reilly offered solutions to the immigration problem in his "Talking Points" memo including having the National Guard patrol the boder, deport those caught trying to cross illegally, fine businesses for hiring illegal workers, allow foreign residents to apply for citizenship but go to the back of the line, and set up a legal guest worker program.

Bill Frist discussed immigration on "Hannity & Colmes." Frist: "I've been driving this pretty aggressively, because a basic responsibility of our government is to protect our borders." As did Richardson: "Let's be realistic. It's not a perfect solution, but what makes sense is some path towards legalization, not amnesty, not citizenship."

Posted 03.28.06 09:19 AM | Comments (0)

Card Out; Bolten In

Per the AP, Andy Card, the only CoS Pres Bush has had in 5+ years, has resigned.

OMB Director Josh Bolten is to take over as the top WH aide.

WH presser set for 8:30

UPDATE: A little bit of tick-tock now up

Posted 03.28.06 08:08 AM | Comments (0)

March 27, 2006

Sharpe James Drops Out

Newark Mayor Sharpe James (D) abruptly ended his campaign for re-election today.

From the Times:

"Mr. James, who is also a state senator, said in his letter that he was leaving because he was "an opponent of dual office holding" and wanted to focus on state issues. He denied that age was an issue, despite having recently turned 70. And he emphasized that if he had stayed in race, he would have won because New Jersey's largest city is better off now than in 1986, when he was first elected."

Posted 03.27.06 07:15 PM | Comments (0)

All Politics Is Local...

...And nowhere more so than at the epicenter of the political epicenter.

We speak of Capitol Hill, where as we type this there are around 35 protestors carrying signs and chanting rhymes on the sidewalk in front of Sen. Mary Landrieu's (D) well-appointed rowhouse; a home on a block of E. Capitol St which, to put it mildly, does not see political protests every day.

What, you ask, would such a group be doing on a Monday night outside of the home of a Dem Senator from Katrina-scarred Louisiana? Turns out "Mary," as the group casually chanted her name, is an active supporter of charter schools both here and back home on the bayou.

The disparate coalition of Yuppie moms, longtime DC activists, and youthful hipsters assembled for the dusk rally contend that charter schools take away needed resources from traditional public schools. And, to add insult to injury, Landrieu has backed language included in Senate legislation to directly aid charter schools in the District, they said. Or, as one chant demanded more succinctly, "Meddling Mary, respect home rule!"

But why take their case to Landrieu's private residence (which was dark and assumedly empty)? Because the group wanted to "disturb her peace and privacy just as she has come into our homes and meddled in our private affairs," said one metaphorically-speaking and very on-message local mother.

Best of all, the group had hand-out's of their lyrical protest rhymes (two different versions), a flyer for an upcoming meeting, a press release touting the rally with bulleted bio's of the speakers on the back and even a clipboard'ed press sign-in sheet.

To paraphrase Cindy Adams, "Only in DC, kiddies, only in DC."

[JONATHAN MARTIN]

Posted 03.27.06 06:48 PM | Comments (15)

Burns Challenges Opponents To Debate

Sen. Conrad Burns (R-MT) wants to debate his three primary opponents, including state sen. Bob Keenan.

Burns, in a letter, said "Montana voters should have the opportunity to hear all voices in this debate. I look forward to talking about issues like taxes, healthcare and gun rights that are important to all Montanans."

BTW: Here's what Pres. Bush said of Burns at a DC fundraiser tonight: " I kind of like being on the same platform as Senator Burns because he makes me sound like Shakespeare. (Laughter.) I like a plain-talking fellow. The good thing about Conrad Burns is you know where he stands. That's why the people of Montana respect him and they like him. And I'm here to urge the good people of the state of Montana to send him back to the United States Senate. (Applause.)"

"But right before we came on, the Senator wanted me to make sure I understood how brilliant and beautiful his granddaughter Ella is. That says something about the man. He's got his priorities straight. He cares deeply about his family. He understands the importance of family in our society. And I appreciate your priorities, Senator."

"By the way, he also loves Montana. Every time I see him he says, I want you to remember the great state of Montana. He cares deeply about the people there and he knows the state about as well as anybody could possibly know it. He's traveled the state. He tells people what's on his mind. He is -- he's a down-to-earth guy. And the people of Montana have got to understand he can get some things done here in Washington, D.C. No, there's a lot of eloquent folks in this town, but it's sometimes short of doers and people who can accomplish some things. I'm here because Senator Burns can get some things done for the good of the people of Montana and the people of the United States of America. (Applause.) "

Posted 03.27.06 04:44 PM | Comments (1)

NTU's 08 Candidate Taxpayer Ratings

Who's the fairest friend of the taxpayer among the '08 candidates? The right-leaning National Taxpayers Union is out with its 2008 presidential scorecard.

For GOPers, Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) get an "A" with a 78% score; Sen. Chuck Hagel gets an "A" with a 76% score. Sens. Frist, Brownback and Allen all merit B+ ratings with scores in the mid seventies. The Democrat scoring the best: Sen. Russ Feingold, who gets a rating of 20, which translate to a "D." Every other Dem gets an "F".

The NTU scores every single roll call vote and weights each vote to reflect the degree to which that vote comports with the NTU's view of the world.

BTW: We hear that the Arkansas Republican Assembly, the state affiliate of a national group of movement conservative activists, is distributing information on Gov. Mike Huckabee's tax record. They accuse him of raising taxes at least five times.

And Andy Roth, dir. of federal affairs at the Club for Growth, e-mails us:

"I've been screaming at the top of my lungs at the Club for Growth blog about Huckabee's poor record on taxes while conservatives have been extremely nice to him. Here are some previous posts:

First Post:
Second Post:
Third Post:

"Just so you know, if Huckabee continues to get good press, I'm only going to get louder. Republicans shouldn''t be [electing] a tax hiker as president."

Posted 03.27.06 04:41 PM | Comments (9)

CA: Arnold's First Ad

It's called Tomorrow. Scharzenegger himself does not speak to camera; the narrator uses the royal "we" to describe the good news about California.

From the campaign: "The ad highlights Governor Schwarzenegger's accomplishments, including policies that reduced the state's deficit and created over 500,000 new jobs. The ad will run in selected local markets.:

VOICE OVER:

"Tomorrow is going to be a little better than today for Californians ...

Because we've pulled our state back from the brink of bankruptcy.
We've dramatically reduced the state's deficit
Cut the unfair car tax ...
Reformed the workers' comp system ...
And created 500,000 new jobs."

"Governor Schwarzenegger's leadership is making California work again."

Posted 03.27.06 04:11 PM | Comments (1)

Hackett Flack Gets DSCC Gig

According to the Cleveland Plain Dealer, ex-Paul Hackett spokesman Karl Frisch has landed a gig with the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.

He'll be deputy to comm. dir. Phil Singer.

The Plain Dealer notes that Frisch once refered to opponent Rep. Sherrod Brown (D) as "more of the same."

Frisch told the newspaper: "I'll be working my tail off to get all of our Democratic candidates elected to the U.S. Senate, including Sherrod Brown. Ohio needs him in the Senate."

Posted 03.27.06 03:15 PM | Comments (0)

Allen Never Said He Was Bored...

The DSCC and the two Dems wanting to oust Sen. George Allen (R-VA) are pouncing on an article in the New York Times that describes Allen as "bored" with the Senate.

The article, written by congressional correspondent Sheryl Gay Stolberg, characterizes the former VA governor/potential presidential candidate as somewhat fed up with the pace of the Senate and anxious to get his hands dirtier.

She quotes Allen as saying he "made more decisions in half a day as governor than you can make in a whole week in the Senate. And she writes that he "lamented about being in the Senate, 'It's too slow for me.'"

The lede of the story, though, contains a juicy ajdective that is tailor-made for his opponents to revel in, especially in a race where the attention-grabbing charges by said opponent(s) [so far] involve the perception that Allen has his eye on a bigger prize.

Allen, Stolberg writes, "makes little secret that he is bored with life in the Senate."

The DSCC released a tongue-in-cheek letter urging outgoing NFL commissioner Paul Tagliabue to consider hiring the football-crazy Allen. Candidate Harris Miller (D) urged Allen to resign.

Trouble is -- Allen apparently never told Stolberg he was bored.

That's her interpretation of his remarks.

The Democrats are misrepresenting what Senator Allen said to the New York Times," says Allen's chief of staff, Dick Wadhams. "Senator Allen has expressed often his frustration with how slow the Senate moves and the obstructionism that has dominated the body for several years but he has not said he was "bored" with the Senate."

Wadhams says he has assurances from Stolberg that she never heard Allen refer to himself as "bored."

Posted 03.27.06 02:26 PM | Comments (4)

House Race Hotline Update: Florida

The business of two Dem challengers in FL is business -- literally.

The DCCC is hoping their non-political backgrounds provide a compelling narrative against the incumbents' ties to GOP leaders. With high numbers of seniors in both CDs, economic issues will likely drive both campaigns:

DCCC Chair Rahm Emanuel campaigned with Tim Mahoney (D) late last week to attack GOP support for the prescription drug benefit. Emanuel recruited Mahoney last summer, impressed with his entrepreneurial background and ability to self-finance. Mahoney touts his fiscal conservatism, and told House Race Hotline he'd be a DLC-type Dem. But he also said he'd criticize Rep. Mark Foley (R-FL 16) for supporting recent free-trade agreements, including CAFTA.

Marketing consultant Charlie Stuart (D) doesn't have the same ability to self-fund as Mahoney. But he thinks Rep. Ric Keller's (R-FL 08) social conservatism will repel voters in the Orlando-based district and help him win a nat'l wave election.

The growing number of (non-Cuban) Hispanics may also help a Dem there. oss in FL 22 and (to a lesser degree) FL 13/FL 09 with these two and the state could become a bigger player in the battle for the House than once thought. [JOSH KRAUSHAAR]

The Hotline's Top 25 House Races

For more about how you can get House Race Hotline, click here.

Posted 03.27.06 01:51 PM | Comments (0)

Secure The Homeland, Sen. Hagel

An online poll unscientifically testing whether Nebraskans want homestate Sen. Chuck Hagel to run for president probably didn't turn out the way Mr. Hagel's political advisers would have wished.

The poll no longer exists on the website, but an eagle-eyed Nebraska reader of ours managed a screen grab.

Posted 03.27.06 10:45 AM | Comments (3)

What You Missed On The Sunday Shows: The Is Of March

Immigration and Iraq led the Sunday shows. Sen. Arlen Specter (R-PA) and Rep. Tom Tancredo (R-CO) started off the immigration talk with their "This Week" appearance. Tancredo: "We don't actually even need another law on the books. We don't need Senator Specter's. We don't need any that I have introduced. No law is necessary if we actually enforce the ones we have on the books today."

More Tancredo: "When you reward millions and millions of people, which Senator Specter's bill does do, for coming across the border the wrong way, doing it illegally, then it's a slap in the face to every single person who has done it the right way, and to everybody who's waiting out there to do it the right way. It's bad policy. And it's also, I think, for the Republican Party especially, bad policy" (ABC, 3/26).

Specter: "It's not amnesty ... because these undocumented aliens are going to have to pay a fine. ... We're facing a difficult situation, because we have approximately 11 million undocumented aliens here, and we've got to find some way to deal with them" (ABC, 3/26).

Sen. Ted Kennedy (D-MA) discussed immigration on "Face the Nation": "It's better that we not pass a bad bill, just to pass a bill." He also agreed with Specter that the Senate was not proposing amnesty: "This is not amnesty. We are not putting anyone at the head of the line. Amnesty means forgiveness. It means pardon" (CBS, 3/26). [EMILY GOODIN]

AND NOW, ON TO IRAQ

Sec/State Condoleezza Rice stopped by "Meet the Press," "Fox News Sunday," and "Late Edition" to discuss the situation in Iraq. One of the main topics was the U.S. intelligence information that the Russians passed on to Saddam Hussein. Rice: "We're trying first to make sure we understand fully what the documents say. ... And obviously ... we would take very seriously any suggestion that this may have been done maybe to the detriment of the American forces. And so we will certainly raise it with the Russian government."

More from Rice: "I really do think that the Russians have generally done what they said they would do. They said they were going to oppose the Iraq war and they did, and they told us that from the very beginning. So I don't have an argument there. And I don't want to jump to the conclusion that this was something that was ordered out of the Kremlin. We have to look at the documents, we have to go to the Russian government, but I would hope that the Russian government would take seriously any suggestion that they may have passed data to the Iraqis at the advent of the war" (NBC, 3/26).

Sen. Ted Kennedy (D-MA) noted of the Russian situation: "I think you'd have to rethink whether we're going to the G-8 conference. Clearly, we're not going to have business as usual."

And when he was asked about VP Cheney's remarks that he had a pre-9/11 mentality, Kennedy: "I think we can get along with fewer wisecracks from the vice president and perhaps listening to some wise men and women on this issue. I'd suggest that the vice president didn't get the 9/11. He didn't get it because 9/11 was as a result of the Taliban and al Qaeda. And that is Afghanistan" ("Face the Nation," CBS, 3/26).

Asked about Kennedy's suggestion the U.S. skip the G-8 summit, NSA Stephen Hadley responded: "Well, the G-8 meeting which he was referring to in July is an important forum. It's where countries get together and deal with economic and other issues. It's going to be interesting this year, because the attention of the international community is going to be focused on St. Petersburg this summer, and one of the questions they're going to raise is what about democracy in Russia? ... This is not the Soviet Union. And one of the things you have to think about is, if you want to encourage democracy in Russia, do you want to kick Russia out of all these institutions."

He added: "We'll take a look at this issue. Obviously, we have not raised it with the Russians, but I think at this point we think there's a lot of value in going forward with the G-8, partly because it's going to require the Russians to answer some tough questions not from us, but from the international community" ("Face the Nation," CBS, 3/26).

Sen. Carl Levin (D-MI), on the Russian report: "I would not jump to any conclusion one way or the other without a much deeper investigation. But if, in fact, they did it, it, number one, wouldn't surprise me, but it would be very disgusting if they did."

Asked what should be the consequences, Levin: "Find ways to let them know that that kind of conduct is not going to be acceptable to us and a whole host of reactions and retaliations. But I wouldn't prejudge this. The intelligence world is a very murky world, to put it mildly" ("Fox News Sunday," 3/26).

On violence in Iraq, Rice noted: "If you look at any big historical change in the world, it has been turbulent and it's been difficult. And there have been times when it looked as if it was not going well or as planned. But you have to step back and ask what was the alternative?" ("Late Edition," CNN, 3/26).

RACE RELATIONS

While on "Fox News Sunday," Rice was asked about a St. Louis radio host who made a racial slur about her: "My understanding is that he apologized, said he didn't mean it. I accept that, because we all say things from time to time that we shouldn't say or didn't mean to say. And so I accept it. We all carry, I think, deep scars of how the United States came into being with slavery as an initial birth defect for this country. ... And it reminds me that when people say well, why haven't the Iraqis achieved this, or why haven't the Afghans achieved this, that maybe Americans should be a little bit more humble about how hard it is to build democracy, particularly to build multi-ethnic democracy."

She also pointed out: "Should I serve to the end of my term, it would have been 12 years since there was a white man as secretary of state in the United States. Given our history, we've come a long way" (3/26).

AND, OF COURSE, THE INEVITABLE '08 QUESTION

Asked if she's ever talked to First Lady Laura Bush about an '08 run, Rice: "I've generally said to the first lady, who is a dear friend as well, exactly what she said, that it's not something I want to do." Asked if L. Bush has urged her to do it: "No, we've not had discussions at that level. I think my friends know that I see my life differently, and I know that there is a lot of speculation, there's maybe going to continue to be a lot of speculation, but I know what I want to do with my life, and that isn't it."

She added: "I'm really honored that she would think so, but ... whatever happens in 2008, we're going to have a good candidate in the Republican Party. We're going to elect a good president and, like all Americans, I'll be there to try to support them." When asked again, Rice said the candidate "won't be me" ("Fox News Sunday," 3/26).

Still getting asked about '08, Rice: "I know what I want to do with my life, and I know what my strengths are. And I have enormous respect for people who run for office, but I love being secretary of state. I think I'm fortunate to be here at a time that is consequential, and hopefully we will make some progress on some of these very important issues while I'm here. But I know what I want to do, and I'm going to be back at Stanford, and who knows, maybe there will be other great jobs, like the NFL job" ("Late Edition," CNN, 3/26).

Asked about spectulation Cheney will step down and she will be appointed VP: "We've got a great vice president of the United States in Vice President Cheney. He is doing a fantastic job for the president and for the country. He is really one of the strongest supporters that I've drawn on from time to time, and he's doing a great job. I think I better try to be secretary of state." Asked again about '08: "I don't think it's going to happen" ("Meet the Press," NBC, 3/26).

ARE YOU READY FOR SOME FOOTBALL?

Rice inevitably got questions about the NFL Commissioner job: "I still think the best job in America maybe NFL commissioner. It's a little too soon for me. I've got lots to do as secretary of state. I think if my ship came in, it's going to have to leave the port without me" ("Meet the Press," NBC, 3/26).

She noted: "The fact is, I'm secretary of state. I love being secretary of state, and there's always a next time on other jobs" ("Late Edition," CNN, 3/26).

JUST SO YOU KNOW

Gov. Brian Schweitzer (D-MT) appeared on "This Week" to discuss global warming. He took ABC's Stephanopoulos on a helicopter tour of Glacier National Park. Asked if he thought Pres. Bush was serious when he said the U.S. should end its addiction to foreign oil, Schweitzer: "No. We're not taking the steps to end our addiction to foreign oil. We did nothing. We are not investing in alternative energies."

He also noted: "Montana is not the state to look for to take us over the top in terms of a Democratic candidate. ... The last few elections, neither Democrats or Republicans have come to Montana. Neither have run any political ads in Montana. It's as if there weren't presidential races. It is taken for granted in Montana. And that's why I'm supporting some of the other governors who are looking at a western primary. ... If we have a western primary strategy, so that a lot of Rocky Mountain states have a primary on the same day, who knows? They might even come to Montana" (ABC, 3/26).

ROUNDTABLE ROUNDUP

The "Meet the Press" roundtable discussed immigration, Iraq, and WH staff shakeups. Washington Post's Broder, on immigration: "It has become a much tougher issue for politicians of both parties, but particularly I think for Republicans."

National Journal's Cook on immigration: "If you ask people what's the most important problem facing the country, it's a small single-digit issue. But then once you raise it, boy, emotions run high and it's hard to split the baby."

Wall Street Journal's Harwood: "This was raised in the Virginia governor's race last year by the Republican candidate who went after some of these job centers that attract illegal immigrants. Didn't work for him. So sometimes the emotion of the issue doesn't always prevail."

New York Times' Bumiller, on possible WH staff shakeups: "The question is, are they going to do it? And, and right now, there's, there's a lot of talk at the White House, there's no indications the president has signed on to this idea. Karl Rove has told people that he thinks that bringing somebody in without a clear line of authority is a mistake" (NBC, 3/26).

The "This Week" roundtable also discussed immigration. George Will: "It would take more than 200,000 buses, extending in a line 1700 miles from San Diego to Alaska to deport 11 million people, which happens to be the population of Ohio. It's not going to happen. 70% of the illegal immigrants here have been here at least five years. They have roots in the community. Many of them have children born in America who are therefore American citizens. Not ripe for deportation, it seems to me" (3/26).

Immigration also led the "Fox News Sunday" roundtable. As to how it will play in '08, Weekly Standard's Kristol noted: "Frist, who hasn't had a terribly successful pre-presidential campaign so far, is staking a lot on this. He wants to be the representative now of the enforcement-only, close-the-border, no-help-for-those-who-are-here-illegally Republicans. And there is a lot of support for that, or appears to be. You can't go to a Republican gathering, a conservative gathering, and not hear a lot of complaints about illegal immigration, and Frist playing to that base. McCain is strongly identified with a more liberal approach, very much like Bush's, and I think it will be a huge issue in the 2008 Republican primary. McCain and Giuliani probably will be the only candidates who are willing to take on this sort of apparent populist upsurge of concern."

NPR's Liasson noted: "I also think that when you talk to key Republicans in states like South Carolina, which is what we're talking about when we talk about 2008 right now, among the base, there are a lot of small business owners, and they need this system rationalized for them. They don't want to be criminalized for hiring illegal workers" (3/26).

Posted 03.27.06 09:53 AM | Comments (0)

March 26, 2006

Now, What Is One Supposed To Say...

A story of awkward political ambition in ID. LG-turned-Gov-turned-LG-candidate Jim Risch (R) gets to name his replacement as LG once he assumes the governorship (following Dirk Kempthorne's likely confirmation as Inter

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All Politics Is Local...

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March 26, 2006

Now, What Is One Supposed To Say...