March 28, 2006
Margin For Error: The Bush Base
From last Friday's Hotline:
There's a world out there where Pres. Bush can do no wrong. He's viewed favorably by nearly everyone, his approval rating is 100% and he'd win a third term, if possible, without breaking a sweat.
This is Bush's base (approx. 45% of the entire GOP). According to the latest Diageo/Hotline poll, they're older (more than half are over 55 which translates into being "very likely" midterm voters), go to church weekly, and almost all of them are white. They oppose abortion rights, and, like VP Cheney himself, they listen to Rush and O'Reilly. And while DC is abuzz with talk that the faithful are weary and fractured, the poll shows they'll be a force at the ballot box.
In '08, they're not looking for a renegade, but someone who more fits the Bush. They're not huge fans of McCain, who leads the list of GOPers they'd never support. Among Bush's base, McCain trails
Giuliani in '08 matchups.
Also, note how a plurality of all GOPers think Bush has been a worse president than Reagan. But among the most die-hard Bushies, most think he's been as good or better. [AOIFE MCCARHTY]
Most Impt Issue Facing Nation? Fav/Unfav -StrgApp- -All GOP-
War In Iraq, Support 20% Fav/Unfav Fav/Unfav
Economy in general 15 Bush 99%/--% 84%/14%
Terrorism 12 Cheney 93 / 3 76 /16
Moral values 6 McCain 60 /23 62 /20
Immigration, illegal aliens 4
Fear of war 4 Bush As Pres. StrgApp AllGOP
Taxes 3 Approve 85% 80%
War in Iraq, Oppose 3 Disapprove 47 18
Abortion, pro-life 3
Ethics,religious decline 2 Re-Elect Rep? StrgApp AllGOP
Health care 2 Re-elect member 42% 37%
Unemployment/jobs 1 Consider other 15 18
High cost of living 1 Vote to replace 15 15
Social Security 1
Avian flu 1 Bush Done Better/Worse Than ___As
Fuel/oil prices 1 Pres.? RWR GWH RMN DDE
Education 1 Better 27% 55% 78% 32%
Int'l issues 1 Worse 19 5 6 6
Dissatisfaction w/gov't 1 Same 47 37 7 34
Drugs/Medicare issues 1
Environment/pollution 1 If Bush Could Run Again, Likelihood
You'd Vote For Him? StrgApp AllGOP
WH '08 GOP Primary Very likely 81% 45%
1st 2nd Combo Smwht likely 12 23
Rudy Giuliani 24% 20% 44% Smwht unlikely 2 10
John McCain 17 16 33 Very unlikely 2 15
Newt Gingrich 10 13 23
Bill Frist 8 10 18 Best Describes Why You Would Vote
Mitt Romney 5 5 10 For ___? JM RG
George Pataki 1 6 7 Know stance/agree on issues 46% 55%
George Allen 5 6 11 Best qualified 24 16
Tom Tancredo 1 2 3 Best chance beating Dem 10 17
Chuck Hagel * - * Not heard much about others 13 11
Undec/Oth 29 22 51
Best Chance Of Beating ___?
NEVER Vote For In GOP WH Primary? DemNom HRC
John McCain 16% Rudy Giuliani 20% 19%
George Pataki 15 John McCain 20 16
Newt Gingrich 13 Condoleezza Rice 20 21
Jeb Bush 6 Jeb Bush 5 6
Rudy Giuliani 6 Bill Frist 5 5
Chuck Hagel 5 George Allen 4 3
Bill Frist 5 Newt Gingrich 2 3
Tom Tancredo 4 Mitt Romney 2 3
Condoleezza Rice 4 George Pataki 2 *
George Allen 3 Chuck Hagel 2 -
Mitt Romney 2 Tom Tancredo 1 *
Undec/Oth 41 Undec/Oth 19 25
2-Way GOP WH Primary Which Of Following Are Most Regular
StrgApp AllGOP Sources For News? StrgApp AllGOP
Giuliani 49% 42% Fox News 46% 39%
McCain 35 40 Local newspapers 23 27
Undec/Oth 17 17 Local TV news 23 27
Radio talk shows 22 17
People You Talk Politics W/Most? Nightly network news 19 21
StrgApp AllGOP Internet 17 19
Almost all GOPers 16% 14%
Most GOP, few Dem 35 31 Which Commentators Do You Rely On
Equal GOP/Dem 34 36 Most For Current Event Info?
Most Dem, few GOP 3 5 StrgApp AllGOP
Almost all Dems 2 2 Bill O'Reilly 34% 32%
Rush Limbaugh 33 23
Abortion Stance StrgApp AllGOP Sean Hannity 23 22
General avail 14% 19% Joe Scarborough 7 4
Avail w/more limits 17 19 Chris Matthews 5 7
Illegal w/exception 40 38 George Will 5 7
Not allowed at all 23 17 Bob Novak 4 3
Tucker Carlson 3 3
Age StrgApp AllGOP
18-24 5% 4% Race StrgApp AllGOP
25-34 7 10 White 89% 89%
35-44 14 16 Hispanic 3 2
45-54 17 19 Asian 2 1
55-64 25 23 Black 1 1
65-74 20 17 Native American 1 1
75+ 9 9 Other 2 2
Religion* StrgApp AllGOP Attend Religious Services Strg All
Protestant 60% 57% Every day 7% 5%
Catholic 23 23 Once a week 54 47
Jewish * 1 1-2/month 14 16
No affliation 2 5 1-2/year 7 10
Mormon 2 2 Only on holidays 3 4
Atheist/Agnostic 1 1 Never 5 9
Other 4 4
Looking solely at demographics, staunch Bush supporters are typically caucasian (89%), over the age of 45 (62%), protestant (60%), and attend religious services regularly. Trending socially conservative, morality is a top concern for them. But when it comes to casting a vote for their next POTUS, they are not looking for a renegade, but someone who more fits into the mold of Bush. 81% say they are "very likely" to re-elect Bush if he was eligible to run for POTUS again and 99% approve of the job Bush is doing as pres.
Looking at the series of WH matchups, Bush supporters pick ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) over Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) every time. In the 2-way primary it becomes even more apparent when Giuliani holds a 14 point lead. The X-factor in all of this is whether Giuliani will actually run. Even if he decides against a bid for WH '08, Guiliani could serve as a seat warmer until someone equally as attractive to the base builds name ID.
This is not to say that McCain is in poor standing with the GOP base. This is a very different John McCain now than we saw in '00. In '00, McCain was Bush's adversary. He ran largely against the GOP establishment and embraced his position as a maverick of the party. Now McCain is standing up for the admin. and even standing with Bush on the war and on the Dubai ports deal. If McCain continues down this path, and can get the support of Bush, there is no telling what kind of in-roads he could make in the coveted GOP base.
Posted at 05:22 PM
Comments
John McCain and Chuck Hagel are NOT liked among the strong Bush supporters. They have many supporters in the Republican party, but becuase they have spoken out against the President they have both been blacklisted among some Republicans.
Charlie | 03.29.06 12:31 AM
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This poll only demonstrates how ignorant, selfish and mean the so-called "right" American electorate is and indicates the America we used to have is now gone. How can any American accept the president's pre-emptive war, support of torture (by ignoring and lying about its existence), lying regularly to the electorate about domestic and foreign policy, the Orwellian habit of naming his environmental (non)policies as "Clean Skies", etc. when they're anything but that, and the list goes on and on. How is it that our economy is hemorrhaging money and racking up debt in unprecedented numbers and these supposed conservatives don't see it? Keep it up AmeriKKKa, you'll be self-destructing soon.
Tom | 03.30.06 07:59 AM
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Jessica | 01.28.08 06:29 AM
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