March 28, 2006
RNC Memo Warns GOPers Not To Distance Themselves From Bush
Republican pollster Jan van Lohuizen, in a memo written for RNC chairman Ken Mehlman, warns that if members of Congress try to drive a wedge between themselves and Pres. Bush, it'd be akin to adding weight to an anchor. GOpers are "W Brand Republicans" whether they like it or not. And van Louhizen, who has polled (often secretly) for the Bush White House under the RNC aegis for years, is worried about low turnout.
Time Magazine first reported on the memo this weekend, but the full text is below.
---------------
Memorandum
To: Ken Mehlman
From: Jan van Lohuizen
Date: March 3, 2006
Re: Bush -- Congressional Republicans
Per our conversation, we took another look at the way voters, Republicans specifically, link President Bush and Republicans in the House and the Senate. There are several points worth making:
1. President Bush continues to have the strong loyal support of Republican voters. Despite slippage in approval ratings among all voters, the President's job approval among Republicans continues to be very high. Most members will be elected with between 80% and 100% of their support coming from Republicans. I don't see that Republicans driving a wedge between themselves and the President is a good election strategy.
2. My read of the current environment is that our problem will be turnout. '06 could become an election like '82 or '84. In '82 Republicans showed up at relatively normal turnout rates, while Democrats, because they were angry, showed up at abnormally high turnout rates. In '94, Republican turnout was elevated, while Democratic turnout was depressed. We have every reason to believe '06 could become the inverse of '82. We don't see signs of a depressed Republican turnout yet, but we have every reason to believe Democrats will turn out in high numbers. Anything we do to depress turnout, by not running as a unified party for instance, could very well lead to serious consequences in November.
3. The President is seen universally as the face of the Republican Party. We are now brand W. Republicans. The following chart shows the extremely close correlation between the President’s image and overall ratings of the party.
President Bush drives our image and will do so until we have real national front-runners for the '08 nomination. Attacking the President is counter productive for all Republicans, not just the candidates launching the attacks. If he drops, we all drop.
Posted at 03:30 PM
Comments
Did you hear that, Congressman Rohrabacher? Now don't you be speaking your mind about that pesky immigration reform legislation. You know that comment you made about the President being out of touch? Oooh, that's just going to be a problem for you with all the "W's" on the backs of those gas guzzlin' SUVs picking up the kids at Calgary Chapel School and all those private academies in the Palos Verdes area.
So, Dana, how do you feel about how the President says you should represent the people of the 46th District of California?
Joe Bua | 03.28.06 06:23 PM
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"All you miserable failures are doing a heckuva job."
intelligence failure | 03.28.06 07:03 PM
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The Senate and House leaders have really been Bush followers much more than actual leaders of any kind, and thats why people associate them so much with George Bush.
But if the Republicans buy into this idea that they are joined at the hip to George Bush when it comes to campaigning, the Democrats will take the House AND the Senate.
It's hard to run on the coat tails of the worst president...ever.
Big Time Patriot | 03.28.06 07:21 PM
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Good! I hope they do! By then people will have a belly full of Bush & anyone identified as standing with him. Should translate into a Democratic landslide.
jimp1947 | 03.28.06 07:27 PM
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"Anything we do to depress turnout"
AHA!
So it IS an admitted party tactic then. I wish people would see that as damning evidence, but they won't.
haydesigner | 03.28.06 07:38 PM
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Wanna get elected?
Be competent.
Be honest.
Be responsive to greater good instead of catering to the whims of corporate overseers.
Get it?
Show some integrity.
B. Butler | 03.28.06 07:39 PM
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My brother and my cousin, both red staters who bought t-shirts to brag on the 2004 election featuring a a map of the red states and the few blue states. Both now claim they didn't vote for Bush, lol. They flew high with the W-orm and now they are going down with him.
Earl | 03.28.06 08:31 PM
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First reported in Time? Fred Barnes and Newsweek wrote about that memo and others that were dispatched to GOPers heading home for recess two weeks ago.
Anonymous | 03.28.06 09:13 PM
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haydesigner:
I think you misread this in your zeal to catch the RNC "admitting" voter suppression:
Anything we do to depress turnout, by not running as a unified party for instance, could very well lead to serious consequences in November.
The author is rather saying Republican turnout could be depressed if the party is not seen as unified in November.
I don't dispute there's a program for voter suppression. But this is not the smoking gun.
hoi polloi | 03.28.06 09:18 PM
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"In '82 Republicans showed up at relatively normal turnout rates, while Democrats, because they were angry, showed up at abnormally high turnout rates."
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
They know they pissed of the Dems.
Arnold Horshack | 03.28.06 09:39 PM
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I hope and pray that all Republicans running from.....errr, FOR, office read that memo and follow those marching orders off the political cliff they're on into the fires of hell.
It's really stupid advice. Duhh, we have an icompetent at best, and corrupt at worst administration; but we've got to "stay the course" because we've all been "branded" as being one with Bush.
Now all the Democrats have to do is show some spine and integrity and mercilessly call Bush out on every point. There's no good reason 30 Million more Democrats can't get registered to vote. We are the real silenced majority.
The irony is that when Democrats control Congress they will actually be fair to the minority but the Republicans will still feel totoally screwed and will scream bloody murder at every opportunity...something the Democrats have yet to have done....even while they were indeed being shafted without even the lubrication of ersatz politness.
The stakes are the survival of our democracy. If not for that fact, this whole absurd situation would be ridiculously funny.
Nick Lento | 03.28.06 09:56 PM
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van Louhizen, who has polled (often secretly) for the Bush White House under the RNC aegis for years
Eksweeze me? Must be another Bush White House because this one says: "if a President tries to govern based upon polls, you're kind of like a dog chasing your tail."
Wait, that brings to mind an old story: Dog growls at a passerby. The passerby turns to approach the dog. The dog bares its teeth. The passerby moves closer. The dog growls some more. The passerby thinks better of it, and moves on. And the dog returns to chewing off its tail.
Now, is the dog George? Dick? Who are the passersby? Can't be Karl. Certainly not Ken. I wonder... But I don't care. See you in November, Jan.
fouro | 03.28.06 10:33 PM
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"If he drops, we all drop... " God, I love it!
tom | 03.28.06 11:06 PM
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It sound like the repubs are worried.
HAWK | 03.28.06 11:06 PM
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Get ready for even more massive voter fraud with Diebold machines mandatory in key states and secret vote counting enforced by the GOP State legislators and upheld by the GOP Supreme Court. They know that their asses are on the line so nothing will be too criminal for these crooks. And as always, the Dems will roll over and the apathetic population will just shrug their shoulders.
John | 03.29.06 12:42 AM
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The more Republicans stick with Bush the farther they will sink. For Bush is in a downward spiral that cannot be reversed. If he attacks another country (like Iran), it will not work to rally his poll numbers. When the next hurricane strikes this summer and he has done NOTHING to better his Katrina response, all faith will be lost. Watch for them to try something beyond all our imaginations to retain their power. Plus, even if they do not try something outrageous, someone else might. We live in the most interesting of times. Bye, bye Republicans.
banjobailey | 03.29.06 01:25 AM
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Has any one noticed that since we put the words "in God we trust" in 1957 on our money and "one nation under God" 1954 in our pledge of allegiance our
Government has become more evil? They have become arrogant and self righteous, acting like they are all powerful yet we have not won a war since. They have become covert and sinister by invading hundreds of other institutions and governments trying to convert them to "our" way of thinking. They have tried to promote a predominate religion over others. They have turned on there own people by spying on us and denying us the truth and knowledge and by denying us an inalienable right to affordable higher education. They have trashed our constitutional obligation to "provide for the general welfare" by turning over our health care to corporate thugs that put profit way ahead of your health, that literally hold everyone whom is not wealthy hostage by giving you the choice of your money or your life in health care decisions.
Believe me; God does not want his name on any of this.
Thou shalt not mix Government and Religion.
This is just another one of Gods laws you will not find in the bible.
Thank God our founding fathers of the United States had the wisdom to understand this most important fundamental aspect of any good government. We had all better wake up and realize this before our government starts issuing death sentences for any one converting from the state sponsored religion.
Tom Dodamead | 03.29.06 03:41 AM
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We have more enemies in the world now than we've ever had! When the Repugs do something/anything now, I have to wonder WHAT their hiding...Where they'll strike next and who they'll take down.
Somebody had better do something!...Say something...get something together. Anymore, it's "What Democrats?"..."Where have all the flowers gone and what have they done to the rain?"
Babygoat | 03.29.06 04:21 AM
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I'M MAD AS HELL AND I'M NOT GOING TO TAKE IT ANYMORE!!
Tony | 03.29.06 07:42 AM
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'' . . . Should translate into a Democratic landslide.''
jimp1947 | 03.28.06 07:27 PM
-Will there be ANY Democratic turnout with the votes counted by Diebold? (even in California now, right?)
rick | 03.29.06 07:46 AM
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I hope they listen to the memo. It will bring them down and we can own the Hill.
magmax00 | 03.29.06 08:31 AM
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I guess this means to run with W, they'd better up their lying level....
Where'd the P go? Steal it back from resident Bush.
www.geocities.com/themissingPproject
themissingPproject | 03.29.06 09:51 AM
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As an Independent, I do not recall being all that pissed off in 1982. I did not like Reagan, nor did I vote for him, but I do not recall being pissed as much as embarrassed for the nation.
Now, I am pissed. Actually, I am bordering on absolutely explosive. Yes, at Bush, Cheney, Rummy, Rice, etc., but even more so at their co-conspirators in congress, I don't give a damn which political party they are from.
I loved Feingold's speech on censure. Who cares whether or not it stands the chance of a snow-ball in hell. Maybe human decency no longer stands a similar chance of prevailing in this hapless nation, but that does not let decent, ethical people off the hook.
Still, the people I would like to see censured are the cover-up, go-to guys in the Senate and the House. We could start with Roberts of Kansas. He has been covering for the murdering thieves in the White House since 9/11. Someone needs to drop a big old trance bomb on Kansas.
Graham and Kyl, apparently, filed a misleading, to say the very least, Amicus brief with the Supreme Court, regarding the Detainee Treatment Act, which is, of course, moot anyway, since Bush signed it and then said it does not apply to him.
Nothing would give me more pleasure than for all of the criminals to stick together. Much easier to pick them off, like in a shooting gallery, every day, during this most important election year.
This election means the end of Democracy in America, or the end of the Republican party. I know which one I would prefer.
I want to see impeachment, trial by the senate, and one of those blackops private jets transporting BushCo to to the Hague.
My hunch is, if we do not see such action, providing that the Democrats take back the majority, the Democratic party's demise will follow the Republicans.
I am sick and tired of the privileged crooks in Washington, lying their asses off and more of them swearing to it, stealing every nickel they can squeeze out of the treasury and trashing my country in the eyes of the world. If we cannot hold all of these losers, liars and war criminals accountable, we might as well burn down D.C. and start all over again.
The stakes in this election could not be higher for this country. There are enemies of our constitution lurking about. They are not named bin laden and they are in Washington.
TWD | 03.29.06 10:07 AM
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Does the word "sycophant" mean anything to you, people?
Or perhaps you prefer the "cult of personality"?
buck turgidson | 03.29.06 10:23 AM
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KEEP PUSHING FOR VOTING MACHINES WITH PAPER TRAIL.THEN WE CAN VOTE THESE DEVILS OUT AND RESTORE AMERICA.
hobojo | 03.29.06 10:24 AM
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Wow, lots of desperate hope here... All over a memo reminding them of the importance of showing a unified front to motivate the base. Look fragmented (like dems) and lose the base. Look unified and the base stays strong.
Like any of it matters, the Reps will be funneling money to a Hillary Coampaign in 2008 all secret like so she wins the primary. That will energize the Republican base like nothing else, and turn moderate voters against the Dems.
2008 should be a hell of a good game.
Scott | 03.29.06 10:39 AM
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OH GOD YES – HITCH YOUR WAGON TO KING GEORGE'S FALLING STAR – PLEASE!!!
Bill Arnett | 03.29.06 10:51 AM
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President Bush drives our image and will do so until we have real national front-runners for the '08 nomination. Attacking the President is counter productive for all Republicans, not just the candidates launching the attacks. If he drops, we all drop.
Great strategy! Even though they know he's dropping in the polls, and even though they know that if Bush drops they all drop, they're still advising Republicans to lockstep behind him.
Woo hoo!!! Grab the kids and make the popcorn...this is gonna be one fantastic disaster movie!
Uilleanne | 03.29.06 10:56 AM
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I think the key to a dem sweep of the House and Senate is to keep convincing middle of the road republicans that The Republican Congress and the Twig white house is driving the country to ruin. Not to mention getting out ALL the democrats votes!
Charles Hall | 03.29.06 11:51 AM
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Republicans have reaped what they sown. There's no way they can run against the President. Running with the administation is doom. Sophie's choice.
Karl Keller's Inner Demon | 03.29.06 11:54 AM
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I'm with ya haydesigner on that "anything we do to depress turnout" comment,what the hell are they saying or rather admitting to? Something a lot of us have suspected for some time now:the repugs steal elections anyway they can,depressing turnout or just out and out fraud.
MATTHEW | 03.29.06 12:40 PM
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GOP voter supression relies on Dem. stupidity and laziness. Ditto the ID requirements having a disparate impact on minorities: it relies on a stereotype, at least, of laziness. But I seem to recall in 2004, at least, Black voter turnout was higher here in Ohio than White turnout. If minorities are truly dedicated to voting, it can be done regardless of what racist schemes the cons might come up with.
B-Rob | 03.29.06 01:26 PM
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Mehlman is now my hero. I always admired him cause bs-ing is HARD WORK, and yet he makes it look so damned easy, almost as good as Scotty - the dispenser of bull - McClellan. His distressed party has a leader, who, every single time he opens his smirking pie-hole, sounds like he did a hell of a lot more drugs than even hinted at by his omissions of yore! Letterman does us all proud with his little clips he runs under the title of Pres. Bush - Wha??? I want all his corrupt comrades to go down with their sound bites recorded, echoing their words of praise for their dear leader. Way to go,Mehlman, my newest hero!
chanceny | 03.29.06 02:22 PM
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DRINK THE COOL AID!!!!!!!!!!!!
JESUSLVSUSALL | 03.29.06 03:16 PM
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yes, GOP stay in burning bush. How sickening, go down with your ship.
A. Douglas | 03.29.06 03:37 PM
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None of this matters if they own the voting machines (Diebold), as in the last election
Mark | 03.29.06 03:38 PM
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You better continue to back Bush because you're connected at the hip whether you like it or not?
If each representative, Republican or Democrat actually had some integrity and true care for their country, they wouldn't have voted in the past like a pack of lemmings, following their leader off the cliff.
Please get some stem cells, grow a spine, and live up to your god given human dignity and oath of office.
jon450 | 03.29.06 03:39 PM
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This memo proves that Republicans value branding over governing and image over substance. Their so-called policies are as empty as W's head. A pox on all their houses.
Ann Anderson | 03.29.06 04:03 PM
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"President Bush continues to have the strong loyal support of Republican voters. Despite slippage in approval ratings among all voters,.."
Jan is obviously not a very good pollster. With ratings between 34 and 40%, polls show that Republicans have turned away from Bush and that 10 to 25% of those who voted for him in 2004 would not vote for him today.
I don't call that slippage Jan, I call that falling off a cliff.
You're doin' a heck of a job Jan!
Greg Winter | 03.29.06 04:08 PM
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*Wanna get elected?
Be competent.
Be honest.
Be responsive to greater good instead of catering to the whims of corporate overseers.
Get it?
Show some integrity.
B. Butler | 03.28.06 07:39 PM*
I add the following to the previosu post. I urge all mebers of Contress, both Rpublican and Democrat, who are members of Congress to pay attention to the US Constitution. As elected officials, I'm your boss as an American citizen, and I don't like this. Your job is NOT to get reelected, and your job is not to follow the party rhetoric. Your job is to make sure that the Executive and Judicial branches are following and constitution. If you're honest, then you'll know that the Bush administration is NOT in compliance. Get off your BUTTS boys and girls because we're watching you, and we will take you out of there.
V Jackson | 03.29.06 04:16 PM
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Further redacted comments by smellman: We can't count on Diebold and Blackwell and Jeb and Harris this time around to fiddle with the votes. We are screwed.
Craig | 03.29.06 04:53 PM
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If you find yourself denying identification with Bush after voting for him and you've gotten quiet in your defense of the Prez, you should take a lesson from this: You are a terrible judge of character. Liberals were able to look at this beligerent smirking punk and see him for the incompetent, priveleged ass he is. Why couldn't you? How will this revelation about your ability to judge character affect you the next time a clearly slimey moron is presented to you as a candidate?
Congratulations! You brought your country to the brink of the toilet over a blowjob, and your own self-righteousness. What have you decided to do to make ammends? Where is your apology to France WHO WAS RIGHT ABOUT NOT JOINING US? because they're not knee-jerk bumpkins.
When do you admit to yourself you made this president happen?
george | 03.29.06 05:19 PM
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Time wounds all heels!
blackdogman | 03.29.06 09:09 PM
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...and I guess the 1/6 billion in media expenditures to sway the sheep is tax money lost as well. What a disgrace this givernment is led by the party that was to restore dignity. Never have I seen less... and to boot we have this wing nut pushing the 'fish that rots at the head' back onto the populace.
We're not buying in the 10's of millions. The extremists in this country should look around at there ugly accomplishments in the name of the American people but driven by ideaology of the few... who have been wrong! Fool me once, fool me twice.
They should all be impeached. They are a disgusting example of leadership.. and they won't and can't get it.
etienne | 03.30.06 06:21 AM
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Bush approval @ 35%, that's a 65% disapproval rating and the republican party wants their lackeys to stay strong with the president.
Bush and his Republicans promote failure.
"You’re doing a heck of a job Brownie".
Had Enough America?
!!!Vote Democrat!!!
MaxCat | 03.30.06 11:10 AM
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As much as I'd like to see the Republicans dive in '06, we shouldn't be chicken counting just yet.
One of the biggest problems is that House districts are so gerrymandered that very few seats are really in play. The second problem is that old saying "all politics is local." Bush might be a sinking ship but that doesn't translate necessarily in the different districts and states. Local issues may carry the day more than the national incompetance.
And finally, who knows what national event may come to dominate the news. Can someone say The War on Iran? I'm in total distrust of the Bush Administrations "win by any means combined with the ends justify the means."
JonB | 03.30.06 03:12 PM
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Come November 7, 2006, I'll be out there to cast my vote (or drop it off -- I live in a mail-in state).
And I'm going to keep on voting against the Republicans until each and every one of them (and the DINOs [Democrats in Name Only] too) are swept out of office.
I will vote.
Not because I am confident that my vote will be counted, because I am not.
No. I have seen the Republicans steal four elections in a row with more and more skill each time since 1998. Hagel was the first test, then the theft of the U.S. Presidency in 2000, then the mid-term thefts (especially Georgia) and then the second theft of the Presidency in 2004.
I am going to vote for one reason only.
At some point, as long as we are allowed to have elections at all, there will come a moment...
...a moment when four things come together:
1. The exit polls and pre-election polls will be so far off from the counted votes that the only possible cause is that a fraud has occurred (this is what happened in '98, '00, '02, and '04),
and
2. The American people will FIND OUT ABOUT IT (perhaps through the internet, perhaps word-of-mouth, perhaps even through a tiny sliver of non-Corporate/Government controlled media such as Air America),
and
3. A large enough percentage of Americans realize what has been done to them and decide that they are going to take a "stand" the way brave Americans did in 1776, and fight for their Democratic Republic,
and
4. With sudden, unorganized, spontaneous, and massive force and fury, these Americans take to the streets and seats of power and literally choke this country to a standstill and DEMAND a return to Representative Electoral Democracy (paper ballots optically scanned with results made public at the precinct level BEFORE centralized final tabulation and non-partisan Secretaries of State and election boards).
For that day, I am going to keep voting. Because I dream of a day when that perfect storm will come and a "massive national flash mob" will happen.
Perhaps it will be November 8, 2006. Perhaps not.
I will be there, wearing orange (the color of resistance) and white (the color of hope and purity).
I will fight for this country so that my children and (hopefully) grandchildren can have it the way Jefferson imagined it.
I will vote, so that my vote stands as a reminder to the corporations and fascists that they will have to kill me to take my Democratic Republic from me.
I will vote because people DIED to give me the chance to vote.
I will vote, and I will never, EVER vote for a Republican. Even if there are nothing but Republicans on the ballot, I will vote a blank ballot before I will put a check mark next to the name of anybody who would associate with the most corrupt, hateful and manipulative political party in the history of electoral politics.
Yes, I will vote, because if I don't vote, then the corporations and fascists have won, and I will not let that happen without a bloody and ugly fight.
I WILL vote.
Charlie L
Portland, OR
CLL2001@gmail.com
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