May 31, 2006

Countdown To Super Midterm Tuesday -- Iowa Preview

Six days and counting until the biggest primary day of the year. Today, we look at Iowa, home to some of the most competitive and interesting races of the cycle. The marquee race is IA GOV where Democrats are defending their long open seat in the nation. Given Iowa's importance in the presidential election (both in the primary stage and the general election), the next governor of Iowa is automatically a national figure, be it as a potential running mate or as a kingmaker for a future president.

The Republicans are united behind Jim Nussle, who has to hope that his first name remains "Jim" and not "Congressman" throughout the fall campaign. Nussle has a ton of campaign talent but the baggage of the Republican Congress is going to be heavy.

The Democratic primary is essentially down to two candidates, Sec/State Chet Culver, son of ex-IA Sen. John Culver, and ex-Rep. Mike Blouin who hasn't run for elective office in nearly 20 years. There is a third candidate, Ed Fallon, who has shown surprising grassroots strength but just doesn't have the money to close.

The Des Moines Democratic establishment basically recruited Blouin into the race, fearing that Culver didn't have the graviitas to beat Nussle. While outgoing Gov. Tom Vilsack publicly denies showing any favortism toward Blouin, the Culver folks believe the speculation and, frankly, there's plenty of circumstantial evidence to back it up.

Blouin's fundraising got off to a slow start and given the name I.D. disadvantage he had, that wasn't a good sign. Blouin needs to be outspending Culver almost 2-1 to make up the gap, something he probably won't be able to do. The Des Moines Register endorsement can actually matter in a Dem primary and Blouin nabbed it. Expect this primary to be closer than polls have shown but consider Culver the favorite.

Two other very hot races in IA are in the state's 1st CD where both parties have primaries to decide who will face off in the race to replace Nussle. The 1st CD is a Democratic district that Nussle has somehow figured out how to hold. Both party primaries have forced the candidates to appeal to their respective bases which is probably more of a problem for the Republicans in the fall than the Democrats.

Some questions that could be answered this time next week:
-- Is Vilsack's political standing hurt a bit in the state if Blouin doesn't beat Culver? What does that mean for Vilsack's presidential prospects, particularly if Culver ends up as governor? The one WH '08er who has given Culver the most love is John Edwards.
-- Will the GOP nominee in IA 01 be too conservative to win in November? The one saving grace for House Republicans when it comes to Iowa is Democrat Leonard Boswell. He's probably the most vulnerable Democratic House incumbent in the country. The Republicans could lose IA 01 and still break even in the state if Republican Jeff Lamberti is as strong as he looks right now in IA 03. [CHUCK TODD]

Posted 05.31.06 07:38 PM | Comments (0)

A Shot'n'Chaser For You MD'ers

If you want to know what the two MD GOV Dems think their rival’s biggest Achilles heal is, look no further than two press releases we received within a minute of each other today:

2:58 pm: Mongtomery Co. Exec. Doug Duncan announces event in Baltimore to discuss city schools

2:59 pm: Baltimore Mayor Martin O’Malley announces event in Montgomery County discussing "sustainable growth"

Posted 05.31.06 04:26 PM | Comments (0)

Why We Love Wednesdays

As we mourn the (professional) departure of one legendary political journalist today, we thought it may be a good time to highlight another renowned Boy on the Bus who has moved on to greener (and tastier) pastures.

Does any other reporter have a better beat than that of one R.W. "Johnny" Apple Jr?

For decades a reporter and editor at the NYT, Apple is now enjoying his retirement years by travelling the country and world with his wife, Betsey, sampling the sort of cuisine not often found at the Hotel Ft. Des Moines or Wayfarer. And, best of all for Apple, he gets paid by the Times to do it.

His distinctly Apple'ian prose hasn't changed, only now he is devoting his literary gifts to shrimp'n'grits instead of pols'n'polls.

Or, in today's paper, the state of ice cream in Texas.

Now aren't you glad we brought up ice cream on a day like today?

Posted 05.31.06 03:34 PM | Comments (13)

The Fox WH Primary?

Mitt Romney was on FNC's "Your World" yesterday to talk about his recent Iraq trip and this highlight stood out from the blue-state GOP governor who is trying to win over conservatives: "The mainstream media, with the exception, perhaps, of Fox, is going to point out the bad news and is going to point out the bombings, without having a fair and balanced assessment of what is going on."

Will Romney say folks have an "Eye on America" when he goes on CBS or will he tell ABC that more Iraqis get their news from America than any other source?"

Posted 05.31.06 11:17 AM | Comments (1)

If These Two Keep Up, People Are Gonna Start Talking...

Min Leader Nancy Pelosi on Speaker Hastert becoming the longest-serving GOP Speaker.

Pelosi:

"I salute Speaker Hastert for reaching this milestone - it is a testament to his leadership within the Republican Conference and the halls of Congress.

"Dennis Hastert began his career as a teacher and coach; he now serves the people of Illinois and America. While we often disagree on issues, we agree on the importance of public service - the kind of public service that has been the hallmark of his career, whether in a classroom or on the House floor.

"In Congress, we all hold the title 'honorable' by virtue of our office; Dennis Hastert holds it by virtue of his character. I salute him for his service to our nation and look forward to many future opportunities to work together."

Guess she does not buy the ABC report, either.

Posted 05.31.06 10:15 AM | Comments (2)

Hotline After Dark -- A Holiday Week Edition

Slow is as slow does on the cable channels.

"Frontline" examined the history AIDS, cable focused on what happened with the Marines at Haditha, Iraq.

"Hardball" focused on the incident on Haditha. It was the lead story on "Countdown." Retired Gen. Wesley Clark discussed it on the "O'Reilly Factor." Rep. John Murtha (D-PA) talked about it on the "Situation Room," "AC 360" and "PZ Now."

And it's been one-year since Natalee Holloway disappeared, which garnered a lot of cable coverage.

Posted 05.31.06 07:19 AM | Comments (0)

Some State Conventions Just Matter More

The NH Dem Convo begins 6/3 at St. Anselm College, which is just outside Manchester. Two WH '08ers will be participating: Mark Warner (lunch speaker) and Russ Feingold (breakfast gabber). Here's the entire sked, per the party:

*** THE FOLLOWING EVENTS ARE OPEN TO THE PRESS ***

8:30 AM -- Convention Kick-Off Breakfast with Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI) (DAVISON HALL)

10:00 AM -- Pledge of Allegiance, Welcome and Introduction by Kathy Sullivan(CARR CENTER GYMNASIUM)

10:05 AM -- Awards Presentation by Convention Co-Chairs Sen. Lou D'Allesandro and Maggie Hassan (CARR CENTER GYMNASIUM)

10:15 AM -- Remarks by Gov. John Lynch (CARR CENTER GYMNASIUM)

10:30 AM -- Remarks by 2005 NH Federal Candidates(CARR CENTER GYMNASIUM):
Rep. Jim Craig - U.S. Congress 1st District Gary Dodds - U.S. Congress 1st District Carol Shea Porter - U.S. Congress 1st District Rep. Peter Sullivan - U.S. Congress 1st District Paul Hodes - U.S. Congress 2nd District

11:00 AM -- Report of the Credential Committee, Ray Buckley (CARR CENTER GYMNASIUM)

11:03 AM -- Report of the Rules Committee, Finis Williams (CARR CENTER GYMNASIUM)

11:07 AM -- Report of the Resolutions Committee, Rep. Jane Clemons (CARR CENTER GYMNASIUM)

12:00 PM -- Blue State/Blue Plate Lunch with Governor Mark Warner (D-VA)(DAVISON HALL)

1:10 PM - Continuation of Resolutions Committee Report (CARR CENTER GYMNASIUM)

1:40 PM -- Report of the Platform Committee, Mike Atkins and Deb Reynolds (CARR CENTER GYMNASIUM)

2:40 PM -- Conclusion and Wrap-Up, Kathy Sullivan (CARR CENTER GYMNASIUM)

Posted 05.31.06 07:04 AM | Comments (0)

May 30, 2006

Super Midterm Tuesday -- Introduction

One week from today is the midterm cycle's version of "Super Tuesday," where voters in 8 states will be heading to the polls in every time zone in the lower 48 to pick nominees for SEN, GOV and the House. There will be a lot to learn for many. Each day between now and Super Midterm Tuesday, we'll be previewing a state and offering up questions we hope to have answered by this time next Wednesday.

First up -- Alabama.

One word sums up this state for us: disappointment. A year ago, we thought the Roy Moore-Bob Riley AL GOV GOP primary would be one for the history books. Instead, Moore's turned out to be a dud candidate, sort of a one-trick pony. On the Democratic side, we've found the attempt by ex-Gov. Don Siegelman to use his trial as a political tool to attack Riley amusing. Is this really some sort of Riley witch hunt against Siegelman or is Siegelman hoping to use his campaign as a way to convince the jury that the charges against him are political in nature? No matter, it appears LG Lucy Baxley is going to coast to the Dem nod.

Our questions:
-- What is the hidden Moore vote? Can he crack 40% and show us that the Southern religious right is still a powerful force?
-- Is there a hidden anti-woman vote, making Baxley's attempt at becoming Alabama's first woman GOV not married to George Wallace that much steeper? Should Baxley-Siegelman be a nail-biter, I think we'll have our answer.
-- Some key numbers to know: In the '98 Dem GOV primary, approx. 360K Dems particiated in what was a fairly uncompetitive contest. Should Dem turnout be lower than '98, the party may have some serious soul-searching to do. For comparison purposes, the '04 WH Dem primary in AL (which took place in June and featured only Kerry and Kucinich) attracted about 220K Dems to the polls.
-- On the GOP side, the very competitive '02 GOV primary attracted approx. 350K folks to the polls. For comparison purposes, the '00 WH GOP primary sported about 200K GOPers (like the WH Dems in '04, the WH GOP contest was essentially over by the time AL rolled around in '00).
-- Next On Or SMT Radar: Iowa [CHUCK TODD]

Posted 05.30.06 05:48 PM | Comments (1)

Web Shots and Chasers

If our new web ad rankings are any indication, good political animation reigns supreme. A quick note on our criteria: Select Hotline staffers ranked our Web Ads based on creativity, message and viral potential (the likelihood that it will get sent around the net). If you think your Web Ad can crack the top five, email Shira.

1. Just another reason to Save Yourself for Kinky Friedman.

2. His AG campaign might be defunct, but Subodh Chandra has a winner with his Simpsons spot in the Ohio Attorney General's Race

3. Because Russ Feingold can do no Wrong with internet lefties.

4. Sorry Charlie Crist. It's not our place to decide whether you have any real skeletons in your closet, but someone thinks you have a little secret.

5. This one stays in the Top Five from the last time we pulled rank because it's one of the more original party ads of ‘06. And the direct quote from Biden is priceless [SHIRA TOEPLITZ]

Posted 05.30.06 03:59 PM | Comments (0)

December In Iowa

The SC GOP has made it very clear that they don't like all this encroaching on to their '08 turf. This afternoon, the state party announced that if any other southern state attempts to even share the same day as the South Carolina WH GOP primary, they'll move up their primary, even if it costs them delegates to the 2008 RNC convention. As SC GOP exec. dir. Scott Malyerck tells us, the state party's new motto for the '08 primary is "first and solo in the south." The threat SC GOPers fear the most is from FL, which is making noises about moving up its WH primary. AL and AR are two other old Confederacy states who want to share in SC's limelight.

There's a domino effect if South Carolina moves out of the approved February RNC window because New Hampshire's law says there has to be 7 days in between its primary and the next like-minded event. And, of course, Iowa needs to be 8 days before New Hampshire. How long before there are realistic plans for Iowa to hold its caucuses in the middle of December.

SC GOPers don't need to be 7 days ahead of anyone, just one day will do, or more likely four days as the party has held its primary on a Saturday in presidential cycles past. [CHUCK TODD]

Posted 05.30.06 03:54 PM | Comments (0)

House Race Hotline Update: On The Border

Rep. Chris Shays' (R-CT 04) comments on immigration last week could be a warning sign for candidates far from the border. He said that, after hearing from constituents, he's taken a more hard-line stance on border security. What's notable is that Shays represents a culturally liberal, affluent Connecticut suburb -- a district where immigration hasn't been a top issue.

Until recently, conventional wisdom held that GOPers would be best-served nominating candidates with more moderate views on border security. Under that logic, immigration hardliner Randy Graf would jeopardize GOPers' ability to hold onto AZ 08. Shays' statement indicates the CW on border security may be changing. In IA 01 immigration is the dominant theme in the GOP primary, but Dems have barely addressed the issue. Could some Dems find themselves vulnerable if they fail to talk tough on immigration? [JOSH KRAUSHAAR]

Posted 05.30.06 03:46 PM | Comments (0)

How Bad Is It Out There For The GOP?

Check out some of these comments from not just Texas Republicans, but Texas Republican activists and delegates to their party's state convention.

Posted 05.30.06 03:11 PM | Comments (0)

Blog Server Migration - Hitch

Apologies for the late posting today--we encounted an issue with
the new blog server and it was only recently resolved.

More new posts coming soon...

[AMC Blogmaster]

Posted 05.30.06 11:39 AM | Comments (0)

Meet Harry Daschle?

It was only a matter of time that the perils of being in the nat'l party leadership would starting taking its toll on Harry Reid back home in NV. His job rating is under 50%, according to a new Research 2000 poll, conducted for the Reno Gazette Journal and KRNV-TV. Some more highlights:

-- 48% of Nevadans approve of the job Reid's doing compared to 41% disapprove. OK, not horrible. But these are the best numbers in this poll.
-- The pollster added this question: "Do the Democrats under Harry Reid's leadership have a workable agenda, or not?" 35% of state voters answered "yes" and 43% said "no," including 40% of indies. This means there are a chunk of NV voters who approve of the job Reid's doing as a senator but don't think he's helped the party develop a "workable agenda."
-- And then there's this question: "Does Harry Reid possess the leadership qualities to guide the Democrats to gain control of the Senate in 2006." 36% said "yes" and 46% said "no," including 20% of Dems and 44% of indies. Now, it's possible some of these Dems who don't view Reid as having the right "leadership qualities" could be simply pessimistic about the nat'l party's chances. Still, it's a result that has to be somewhat depressing to Reid partisans.

Poll numbers like this put Reid in a box. While he may be doing things that the nat'l party desperately needs done (i.e., make Senate GOPers look like they can't govern), his reputation with home-state voters as a middle-of-the-road Red-state Dem is eroding. If this storyline seems familiar, it is. It's exactly what happened to Tom Daschle. There's no perfect answer. For Reid, becoming majority leader might actually help change the minds of some NV voters who will start enjoying the fruits of Reid's power. It's not easy being a party leader who represents a swing state because by nature of the leadership position, you look partisan. And in some of these states, partisanship doesn't sit well with swing voters. If Reid's tenure as Senate Dem leader ends the same way Daschle's tenure does, it could mean that a "red state" Dem won't be picked as leader for a long time. Being personally safe politically may become a necessary job requirement. [CHUCK TODD]

Posted 05.30.06 11:35 AM | Comments (2)

May 26, 2006

Blog Server Migration

Darn you, On Call readers.

Your supportive traffic forced us to migrate to a new blog server.

It'll take a few days for the propagation thingy to propagate, so bear with us. Save your comments for next Tuesday.

Meanwhile, check out the latest episode of Hotline TV.

Our editors pick the six Senate races you must know about, tell you which six House races could make a difference, point out the GOV races, in play, and cover which races are simply overrated before we breeze through the fastest two minutes on the web.

Posted 05.26.06 03:46 PM | Comments (1)

From The Hotline: Iraq

Occasionally, a Hotline story slips through the cracks of our production system.

Fortunately, On Call is there to pick it up. After the jump: Hotline coverage of yesterday's mea culpa-filled joint Iraq presser.

In an hour-long joint press conference, Pres. Bush and British PM Tony Blair acknowledged "a series of errors in managing" the occupation of Iraq. Bush said the "biggest mistake" was the Abu Ghraib prison scandal: "We've been paying for that for a long period of time." Though Bush has "increasingly" acknowledged missteps, his comments last night "represent his most explicit acknowledgment" that his admin underestimated the difficulty. Blair, who just returned from Baghdad, appeared "dour and exhausted" (Kessler/Justified, Washington Post, 5/26).


Bush admitted that he regrets his "tough talk" such as telling insurgents to "bring it on" and that he wanted Osama Bin Laden "dead or alive." Bush: "I learned a lesson about expressing myself in a more sophisticated manner. In certain parts of the world, it was misinterpreted, so I learned from that." Bush credited FLOTUS Laura Bush for urging him to lose the cowboy talk (Bazinet, New York Daily News, 5/26).


Bush made the comments, deemed the "freshest" of the presser, when asked by a member of the British media what "missteps and mistakes" he regretted the most. Bush responded "with uncharacteristic reflection." Bush: "Kind of tough talk, you know, that sends the wrong signal to people."


Bush continued to say the mistreatment of Iraqi prisoners at Abu Ghraib was the "biggest mistake that's happened so far." Bush: "We've been paying for that for a long period of time. Unlike Iraq, however, under Saddam, the people who committed those acts were brought to justice." This was the 3rd time at a news conference Bush has been asked about mistakes -- the 1st time he responded by saying he couldn't think of any and the 2nd time he said he miscalculated the insurgents' lasting strength (Sandalow, San Francisco Chronicle, 5/26).


Bush and Blair "looked less like cheerleaders" and "more like world-weary leaders who had met their match." In "possibly their last joint appearance," Bush "displayed almost none of his trademark backslapping bonhomie" and Blair, who is "under siege to quit" before his term ends in '09, looked "dour" (Gearan, AP/Washington Examiner, 5/25).


More Bush: "We did not find the weapons of mass destruction that we all believed were there, and that's raised questions about whether the sacrifice in Iraq has been worth it. Despite setbacks and missteps, I strongly believe we did, and are doing, the right thing." The WH spend the day "downplaying expectations" that both men would announce troop withdrawals, "but that was the subject of most of the questions" (Curl/Dinan, Washington Times, 5/26).


"Speaking in subdued, almost chastened, tones" both leaders refused to discuss a schedule for pulling out of Iraq. Blair, whose approval ratings are lower than Bush's, said he particularly regretted the decision to strip most members of Saddam Hussein's Baath Party out of govt, leaving many Iraqi institutions short on expertise. The "overwhelming sense" from the presser was of "two battered leaders who, once confident in their judgments on Iraq, now understood that misjudgments had not only affected their approval ratings, but perhaps their legacies" (Sanger/Rutenberg, New York Times, 5/26).


Bush said last weekend's selection of a new Iraqi govt was proof of "progress is being made," but added he wouldn't know whether those gains would translate into troop withdrawals until a defense minister is named. Blair said "it's possible" for Iraqi forces to take over by the end of '07, like Iraq PM Nouri al-Maliki says he wants (Davis, Baltimore Sun, 5/26). Maliki said he might be ready to pick his nominees for defense and interior ministers today (AP/Wall Street Journal, 5/25).


Blair: "The people who are fighting us there know what is at stake -- the question is, do we?" Blair called it "utterly inspiring" to see new Iraqi leaders working together: "All of them wanted us to stick with it." Bush on Blair's possible exit from his post: "I want him to be here so long as I'm the president" (Orin, New York Post, 5/26).


Bush repeated his position that he would only reduce troops after military commanders told him Iraq could be defended by Iraqi police and military. Bush: "It's important for the American people to know that politics isn't going to make the decision as to the size of our force level" (Richter, Los Angeles Times, 5/26).


Hours before the presser, reporters were asking WH Press Sec Tony Snow if the meeting was a symbolic attempt to divert attention from low approval ratings. "Rather than tamp down expectations," Snow "tried to raise them." Snow said forming the new Iraq govt was "hugely important" and demanded face-to-face talks (Raasch, Gannett News Service, 5/25).


The two leaders' "frank assessment" of Iraq "contrasted with their effort throughout the news conference to stress progress in the country. CFR fellow Lee Feinstein called the presser "somehow a morose event." Feinstein: "Tony Blair looked quite exhausted, and the President was even more downbeat than Tony Blair was" (Rosenkrantz/Keil, Bloomberg News, 5/26).


All About That Presser


FNC's Cameron: "Blair really made the decision to come here to the United States and take part in this joint news conference and speak to the president both privately and publicly, at the tail end of his trip to Iraq" (5/25).


FNC's Hume: "The White House made quite an effort to get coverage for this event, staging it when they did, have it be an hour length, full-dress news conference. Once sensed that the reason was, in part at least to bring out Tony Blair" (5/25).


CNN's Crowley: "What you saw here tonight is precisely what history will record, that these are two men who started this war together, basically, and who stuck with it, and are sticking with it now, saying, we cannot leave" ("PZ Now," 5/25).


FNC's Barnes: "I thought this was a buck up press conference, trying to buck up America, buck up England" (5/25).


CNN's J. King: "The point both of these leaders wanted to make was, they're confident now that, finally, Iraq now has a government that will work, that will stabilize the country and eventually allow them to bring the troops home" ("PZ Now," 5/25).


Ex-WH adviser David Gergen: "I think a lot people watching tonight, the experts thought, as they watched President Bush and Prime Minister Blair, there was the sense of an end of an era, both people now fading" ("AC 360," CNN, 5/25).


About That Mistake


CBS' Plante: "The most extraordinary moment came when the president, who is not ordinarily one for much public analysis, was asked which missteps and mistakes he most regretted" ("Early Show," 5/26).


ABC's Yellin: "Bush struck an unusually introspective tone" ("GMA," 5/26).


NBC's Gregory: "I think a lot of critics would point out that these two were wrong on weapons of mass destruction, were wrong on anticipating the insurgency, and yet tonight, there's no question that that raised eyebrows, the fact that the president would admit that error" (MSNBC, 5/25).


NBC's K. O'Donnell: "This was a high-profile setting for introspection" ("Today," 5/26).


CNN's Blitzer: "It was fascinating to hear the president, someone who has in the past rarely acknowledged making mistakes, going forward and saying, yes, indeed, there were mistakes" ("PZ Now," 5/25).


MSNBC's Scarborough, on Bush's admission of making mistakes: "Here was a president with all that's gone wrong Iraq ... who can only find error in language that he used and not actions that he made. It was style over substance, it was the president confessing without really confessing. It didn't move me. ... It was rehearsed" (5/25).


Newsweek's Wolffe, on Bush's answer on his mistake: "It is very rehearsed, everything from the mannerisms you saw, the upwards glance up at the ceiling for inspiration. And for me, the big giveaway was at the end of that answer -- I don't know if you could see it on camera -- but the president flashed a big grin to those of us sitting in the front rows. It didn't seem that he was quite as contrite as his performance" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 5/25).


Dem strategist James Carville: "What it shows me is that when your wife is mad at you for something, you know about it. And he was pretty doggone contrite that night, and I think probably maybe Mrs. Bush gave him a wood shampoo on that thing. And it makes a difference. No matter if you're president of the United States or you're president of the plumbers union, if your wife gets on you, you're going to be one contrite little puppy, I'll tell you that, and I know that from personal experience" ("PZ Now," CNN, 5/25).


MSNBC's Olbermann: "In the middle of all the political scandal and chaos, the president did try to rewrite the headlines perhaps with success, in a primetime news conference finally answering questions about his biggest regrets. But why did it take three-and-a-half years for him to talk about a mistake in the phrase 'dead or alive'?" ("Countdown," 5/25).

Posted 05.26.06 03:45 PM | Comments (0)

Hotline: Rayburn Hostages FREE

Word just in from a staffer stuck in Rayburn: The emergency audio systems ("annunciators" in Hill parlance) in cong. offices have just alerted those in Rayburn that they are free to leave their office.

Here is the message from the USCP:

The Capitol Police have completed the search of the Rayburn Building and declared the building safe for normal activities.

All persons in the Rayburn Building may resume their respective routines and are able to move about freely, retrieve their cars from the garage, etc.

The patience displayed by those whose movement was restricted for this extended period was commendable and the Capitol Police express their most sincere appreciation to all concerned for their understanding.

Sent on: 05/26/2006 15:17:42

Posted 05.26.06 03:20 PM | Comments (0)

More Bush Family Lore

Ex-TX LG/Austin lobbyist/ '04 WH campaign bit player/new author Ben Barnes (D) guested on one of the Post's online chats.

This Q&A jumped out at us:

Washington, D.C.: Mr. Barnes -

I glanced at your book in a bookstore the other day, and according to the flap, John Connally supposedly saved George Bush Sr.'s career. I never heard of that -- it seems unlikely. What's that about?

Ben Barnes: I was present when Richard Nixon called John Connally in 1970 to offer him the Secretary of the Treasury position. Bush had just lost his second campaign for US Senate, and was still the most visible Republican in Texas. Connally was a Democrat, and he told Nixon it would be a mistake to appoint him to a high position unless he appointed Bush to something first. Nixon called back and said he'd appoint Bush to be the UN ambassador. That revitalized Bush's political career, and he went on to move up in the political world.

Posted 05.26.06 03:11 PM | Comments (0)

Dowd to RNC Members: Simmer Down Now

RNC senior adviser/BC04 senior strategist/Ron Fournier co-author Matthew Dowd urges Republican Nat'l Committee members to favor a "comprehensive" solution to immigration, which the public believes is is "unifying -- not polarizing."

Dowd: "Furthermore, majorities of Hispanics back it. Therefore, it is imperative for the Republican Party to talk about immigration effectively and comprehensively and demonstrate leadership on this vital issue as we move toward the mid-term elections."

Dowd's memo says that an internal RNC poll conducted by Jan Van Louhuzen finds that "pverwhelming support exists for a temporary worker program. 80% of all voters, 83% of Republicans, and 79% of self-identified conservatives support a temporary worker program as long as immigrants pay taxes and obey the law."

More, from the RNC internal poll: "When voters are given the choice of other immigration proposals, strengthening enforcement with a tamper-proof identity card (89% among all voters, 93% among GOP), various wordings of a temporary worker program (the highest at 85% among all voters, 86% among GOP), and sending National Guard troops to the border (63% among all voters, 84% among GOP) score the highest among both all voters and Republican voters."

Also: "Voters don't consider granting legal status to those already here amnesty."

Dowd concludes: "Finally, when discussing immigration reform, tone and language are extremely important. To continue to grow the party, we must conduct this debate with civility and respect for our nation's heritage -- as the President has said, we are both a nation of laws and a nation of immigrants. That is why the American people favor a balanced plan that secures the border, improves enforcement, enhances immigration avenues AND deals compassionately and equitably with those who are already here."

MEMORANDUM

TO: Republican National Committee Members

FROM: Matthew Dowd, RNC Senior Advisor

RE: Public Opinion On Immigration Reform

DATE: May 26, 2006

Given the ongoing public and legislative debate on immigration reform, I wanted to provide you with an overview and analysis of public opinion research on this important issue. A review and evaluation of both public and private polls reveals the following:

Americans believe illegal immigration is a serious problem that the government has failed to address in the past. Doing nothing on this issue is not a solution, as Americans want it fixed today.
The public wants a comprehensive solution that includes reform on three fronts: (i) strengthening border security/law enforcement to stem the flow of illegal immigration, (ii) enhancing the avenues through which immigrants can lawfully and safely enter the U.S. for work and (iii) creating a compassionate, practical and equitable way for those illegal immigrants already in the U.S. to legally enter the system.
On the other hand, proposals such as criminalizing illegal immigrants, have significantly less support among the American people.
The comprehensive approach that emphasizes both security and compassion is unifying, not polarizing – it is supported by Republicans, Independents, and Democrats. Furthermore, majorities of Hispanics back it. Therefore, it is imperative for the Republican Party to talk about immigration effectively and comprehensively and demonstrate leadership on this vital issue as we move toward the mid-term elections.

I. Public Polling Summary

Public polls show that Americans want the government to solve the immigration problem. The public strongly supports a comprehensive approach. For instance:

Expanding the Border Patrol. Eighty percent (80%) in the FOX News poll (4/4-4/5) support increasing the number of officers policing the border, and Gallup (4/6-4/7) shows 81% believe increasing the number of Border Patrol agents will be an effective way to reduce illegal immigration.

Creating a temporary worker program. More than two-thirds of voters – and equally large numbers of Republicans – support creating a temporary worker program. FOX News (5/16-5/18) found 63% of all voters support a temporary worker program and 63% of Republicans supporting it too. Similarly, CBS (5/16-5/17) found 61% of Americans and 62% of Republicans support a temporary worker program.

Strong Support For Temporary Worker Program From GOP Voters

Providing a way for illegal immigrants already here to obtain legal status. Proposals to allow illegal immigrants who have been in the country for at least five years and meet other requirements (pay a fine, pay back taxes, learn English, and go to the back of the line) to apply for legal status garner wide support. Close to 80% support such a proposal in the CNN poll (5/16-5/17) and 77% in the CBS News poll (5/16-5/17), including 76% of Republicans. And according to the NBC News/WSJ poll (4/21-4/24), more than two-thirds (68%) support the Hagel-Martinez approach that passed the Senate.

Sending the National Guard to help Border Patrol agents secure the border. Voters strongly support the President’s plan to deploy National Guard troops to the Mexican border. 74% support the plan in the ABC News/Washington Post poll (5/12-5/14), 64% support it in the CNN poll (5/16-5/17), and 62% support it in the CBS News poll. Moreover, the CBS poll shows 68% believe National Guard troops will be effective in reducing illegal immigration.

II. RNC Polling Summary

Examining RNC internal polling sheds even more light on the immigration debate. Our most recent poll (5/21-5/23) by Voter/Consumer Research finds:

Overwhelming support exists for a temporary worker program. 80% of all voters, 83% of Republicans, and 79% of self-identified conservatives support a temporary worker program as long as immigrants pay taxes and obey the law.

When voters are given the choice of other immigration proposals, strengthening enforcement with a tamper-proof identity card (89% among all voters, 93% among GOP), various wordings of a temporary worker program (the highest at 85% among all voters, 86% among GOP), and sending National Guard troops to the border (63% among all voters, 84% among GOP) score the highest among both all voters and Republican voters.

Immigration Proposals, Ranked By Overall Support

Voters don’t consider granting legal status to those already here amnesty. Seventy percent (70%) of voters say illegal immigrants who have put down roots in the U.S. should be granted legal status after they go to the back of the line, pay a fine, pay back taxes, learn English, and have a clean criminal record; just 25% say that would be amnesty and we should instead impose criminal penalties on illegal immigrants in the U.S. Republican and conservative opinion is only slightly lower—68% of conservatives and 64% of Republicans support granting legal status over criminal penalties.

Voters want comprehensive reform, including a temporary worker program and legal status, not inaction. When voters are given the choice between a comprehensive reform plan of getting tough on border security and a temporary worker program or no reform at all (below), 71% choose comprehensive reform and 19% choose no reform. Support for comprehensive reform is even higher among GOP base voters—80% of conservatives and 72% of church-going Protestants want comprehensive reform over no reform.

· “Getting tough on the border by building more fences, motion sensors, and cameras, and creating a temporary worker program where people can apply to work in this country for a limited period if they pay taxes and obey the law.”

/OR/

· “Not reforming our immigration system or strengthening border security if it means letting more immigrants into the U.S. through a temporary worker program and failing to punish immigrants here now who came into the country illegally.”

Conservative Subgroup Support For Temporary Worker Over Inaction

Republican candidates succeed when they support taking action on immigration. Our poll tested a number of messages, and found candidates who talk about comprehensive reform are more successful than those who focus only on border security. For example, a candidate using comprehensive reform language wins 71%—including 52% of Republicans—when matched against a seal-the-border candidate.

Candidate A “who only supports sealing off the border, stopping illegal immigrants from entering the country, and imposing criminal penalties on immigrants already here”
25% are more likely to support Candidate A

/OR/

Candidate B “who supports comprehensive immigration reform that would beef up border security, enforce laws against companies that hire illegals and creates a temporary worker program that would allow immigrants to work here for a set period of time so long as they register, pay taxes, obey the law, and return home when their permit expires.”
71% are more likely to support Candidate B

Finally, when discussing immigration reform, tone and language are extremely important. To continue to grow the party, we must conduct this debate with civility and respect for our nation’s heritage – as the President has said, we are both a nation of laws and a nation of immigrants. That is why the American people favor a balanced plan that secures the border, improves enforcement, enhances immigration avenues AND deals compassionately and equitably with those who are already here.

Posted 05.26.06 02:34 PM | Comments (5)

Santorum: Stop It, PJ....

In a rather headed discussion with KQV-AM's P.J. Maloney, Sen. Rick Santorum (R) maintains his belief (reported in print over the last week) that Dem operatives likely trespassed onto his Penn Hills property.

Listen here.

"PJ, stop. PJ, stop. Common sense dictates the guy trespassed on my proprerty and looked in my window. Quit making excuses for him, PJ."

Posted 05.26.06 02:10 PM | Comments (4)

Elevator Mechanic?

MSNBC reports USCP speculation that the initial gunfire-like sounds may have come from an elevator mechanic who was loudly performing his mechanic functions.

Posted 05.26.06 02:04 PM | Comments (0)

USCP Briefing

Capitol Police spokesperson Kim Schneider had nothing new to report, really.

"What the Capitol Police are doing is ensuring everyone who is in the Rayburn building belongs in the Rayburn building."

Posted 05.26.06 01:36 PM | Comments (0)

Hotline: Searching The Office

From a Congressional staffer:

"They just searched our office. They had guns drawn, but not raised. They were very professional, checked our ids and made sure we were ok."

Posted 05.26.06 01:22 PM | Comments (0)

Kingston Staffer Was In House Gym; Taken To Hospital As Precautionary Move

David All, spokesperson for Rep. Jack Kingston (R-GA), just sent out the following:

"This morning, a member of Congressman Kingston's staff was in the House Staff Gym when the Rayburn House Office Building was put under lockdown due to alleged gun shots. Under guidance of law enforcement officials, the staffer was taken via ambulance to the hospital. She was not injured or shot, just a little shaken up under the circumstances.

"We have been in contact with our colleague and she is doing well.

"Congressman Kingston is aware of the situation. He has encouraged us to remain cooperative with the Capitol Police as they work to resolve this situation."

The House Staff Gym is located on the second floor of the parking garage of the Rayburn House Office Building which is five floors below Congressman Kingston's office.

Posted 05.26.06 01:03 PM | Comments (0)

Hotline: The Search Begins

USCP have commenced their office-to-office search, and, according to one House staffer, are banging loudly before entering with guns' drawn.

Posted 05.26.06 12:46 PM | Comments (0)

MSNBC: Cong. Heard Shots

A press sec. for Rep. Jim Saxton (R-NJ) says Saxton was among those who heard the shots, per MSNBC.

Posted 05.26.06 12:41 PM | Comments (0)

Hotline: Staffer Taken Out On Gurney

The person taken out of Rayburn on a gurney was not injured.

According to a colleague, this person, who is a staff member to a Republican office holder, had a blood pressure reading taken by a police officer.

The officer suggested medical treatment as a precuation.

Posted 05.26.06 12:36 PM | Comments (0)

Hotline: New Instructions Issued To Rayburn Staffers

Note: the Hotline removed sensitive security information from this e-mail.

From the USCP:

The Capitol Police continue to investigate the report of gunfire in the Rayburn HOB. 1. If you have not done so, lock your office doors. 2. The Capitol Police will soon commence a search of the Rayburn HOB floor by floor. 3. During the search, the police officers {REDACTED] , announce [REDACTED], [REDACTED] 4. [ONE SENTENCE REDACTED] cooperate with all police instructions. 5. All occupants should remain in their offices until the Capitol Police announce that it is safe to exit. 6. If there are special concerns about the identity of the person knocking on your door and you need to verify their identity, call (202) 224-XXXX.

Posted 05.26.06 12:28 PM | Comments (0)

CNN: Plainclothes Police Officer?

Could the gym witnesses have seen a police officer wearing street clothes? That's what investigators are thinking...

Posted 05.26.06 12:23 PM | Comments (0)

CNN Confirms Fox Report About Possible Gunman In Gym

A senior law enforcement official tells CNN that two women exited one of the two Rayburn gyms in Room B-319 and reported a man hiding there with a gun. That has prompted the USCP to once again shut down the Capitol Building.

Posted 05.26.06 12:16 PM | Comments (0)

Cal Police Briefing: No Suspects Caught

Sgt. Kimberly Schneider : "I don't have any suspect information at this time. Our searches have turned up several staff members in the building. We have not gotten any reports of being captured or being arressted. We have no reports of any injuries at this time."

Posted 05.26.06 12:03 PM | Comments (0)

Murkowski's Decision

Gov. Frank Murkowski (R) ended speculation over his future, announcing in Fairbanks this morning that he will indeed seek a new term. Lingering controversy over Murkowski's appointing his daughter to his Senate seat, and recent debate over a new pipeline deal had led some to question whether he'd run again. "Voters will have a chance to look at the record and then determine what they want for the future," AK GOP chair Randy Ruedrich tells Hotline.

Ruedrich, who received word from the gov. 5/25, says that the party leadership will remain neutral in the primary. '02 LG candidate/ex-Wasilla Mayor Sarah Palin (R) and ex-State Sen. John Binkley (R) had announced they would run regardless of Murkowski's decision. "It will give the voters of Alaska a chance to pick a Republian nominee that we can support in the November election," Ruedrich says. "This is a very important election for Alaska." The announcement comes just days before the 6/1 filing deadline. The Republican primary is 8/22. [MIKE MEMOLI]

Posted 05.26.06 12:01 PM | Comments (13)

Fox News: Gunman Seen?

Fox News reports that "Capitol Hill police have caught a man with a gun." Two women apparently existed the Rayburn gym and told police that a man was hiding in there with a gun.

Posted 05.26.06 12:00 PM | Comments (0)

Murkowski's Running

Gov. Frank Murkowski (R-AK) will run for re-election, Republican sources tell the Hotline.

Posted 05.26.06 11:49 AM | Comments (0)

Kingston's Staff Liveblogs From Rayburn

Here.

Posted 05.26.06 11:42 AM | Comments (0)

USCP News Conference At Noon ET

Posted 05.26.06 11:34 AM | Comments (0)

Update From USCP

The US Captiol Police are continuing to investigate the report of gunshots in the Rayburn House Office Building. The Rayburn Building and garages are shut down at this time. The Longworth and Cannon Office Buildings and other garages are not affected. The Capitol Building is open for above ground access but the tunnels remain closed. As soon as the police have completed clearing the garage levels, they will begin search the remainder of the Rayburn Building beginning on the top floor and working down.

Posted 05.26.06 11:31 AM | Comments (0)

Various TV Reports

As a precaution, ambulances are waiting outside Rayburn to treat the injured -- should there be any injuries.

Fox News reports that the FBI's joint terrorism task force is also on the scene.

Posted 05.26.06 11:14 AM | Comments (0)

The Capitol Is Open

Per the USCP:

At this time the Capitol Building is opened. Traffic from the Capitol to the Rayburn House Office Building remains closed.

Posted 05.26.06 11:13 AM | Comments (0)

One Staff Member

CNN's Ted Barrett says that the source of information about the shots was one staff member who heard multiple sounds similar to gunshots on the G-3 level.

Posted 05.26.06 11:10 AM | Comments (0)

The Senate Is Not Closed Down

And other House office buildings are functioning.

The House side of the Capitol is locked down, but the Senate side remains functional.

Posted 05.26.06 11:01 AM | Comments (0)

Nothing Yet...

Capitol Police officers scouring the Rayburn building and garage have found nothing, per CNN.

Posted 05.26.06 10:59 AM | Comments (0)

Stay In Your Offices

Members and staffs in Rayburn are locked in their offices.

Per a Congressional aide: "The loud speakers have told us to stay sheltered and not roam the building."

Posted 05.26.06 10:57 AM | Comments (0)

In The Garage

There is a firing range near the basement garage of the Rayburn building that's used by the U.S. Capitol Police.

Posted 05.26.06 10:53 AM | Comments (0)

Shots Fired In Rayburn House Office Building?

Here's the bulletin from the Capitol Police

This is a message from the U.S. Capitol Police

1. If you are in the Rayburn HOB then Shelter in Place. Quickly move
into the nearest interior office space or interior hallway and away from

windows. The Capitol Police are investigating reports of gunfire in the Rayburn HOB.
2. If nearby, grab Go-Kits and personal belongings.
3. Close doors behind you, but do not lock.
4. Remain calm.
5. Await further instructions. Do not leave the building.

Please do not respond to this e-mail. This mailbox is unattended. End of message.

Posted 05.26.06 10:51 AM | Comments (0)

The Hotline Futures Market: Virginia

What's the Hotline Futures Market? It's our exclusive look at the up-and-comers in every party in every state. You won't a list like this anywhere else. If you've missed a state, check out our archives.

The 800-lb. gorilla in some GOP circles is Rep. Tom Davis (R), who is said to be considering a statewide bid. Other GOPers, particularly those with ties to Southern VA, think that's ridiculous, and point to one of our '03 stars, the chair of the Prince William Co. Board, and his poor performance in the '05 LG primary as proof that NoVA GOPers can't win a primary. NoVA's growing, all agree, but only for Dems. GOPers need to get their primary votes elsewhere. Dems, meanwhile, have exploited the nat'l trend this year and won several state legislative special elections in districts that were previously held by GOPers. They hope their early success, and their very good '05, translates into success down the road. {REID WILSON]

The stars we've been watching since '03:

• Atty Steve Baril (R): After losing a bid for AG in '05, "some people will keep him on the list" for future races, but others say "his time has passed." A good fundraiser, but he couldn't get traction in NoVA or among moderates.
• Del. Dick Black (R): Lost bid for re-election in '05, "a pretty bruising defeat."
• LG Bill Bolling (R): A State Sen when we first met him, Bolling won the LG race in '05 and "has a very good shot at being the next" Gov.
• Prince William Co. Board Chair Sean Connaughton: He lost a primary bid for LG in '05, but remains a likely candidate for one of top two offices. "He'd like to" make another bid, say some. Others disagree: "He had his one shot. He blew it."
• State Sen. Jeannemarie Devolites Davis (R): Wife of Rep. Tom Davis (R), she's "always talked about as a potential candidate for LG." "Count her on the short list."
• Del. Chris Jones (R): After voting for tax increases, he lost his appointment to the state health care commission in retaliation. "He's done."
• AG Bob McDonnell (R): The former State Del. won his race in '05 by a hair. He's a likely Gov candidate in '09. "A good candidate."
• Del. Chris Saxman (R): Still in the House. "One of the younger, more conservative members." "Others consider him an up-and-comer in the party."
• Ex-NASCAR exec. Kevin Triplett (R): Lost to Boucher. "A great guy," but he "wouldn't a real player at the current time."
• Del. Kenneth Alexander (D): Still in the House, a young guy
• Secretary of Administration ex-Del. Viola Baskerville (D): Lost LG nom, appointed Sec Admin for Kaine
• State Sen. Creigh Deeds (D): Lost AG. He's "one of the best fighters we got." "He'll be seen again in the future."
• Del. Brian Moran (D): "Brian is awesome." He's the caucus leader. "He's definitely going to run statewide or for Congress."
• Ex-Del. Chap Petersen (D): Lost LG. "We'll see him again in a statewide race," and has "a very, very bright future."

And the stars to watch in the future:

• US Atty John Brownlee (R): The US Atty for the Western district comes from GOP voter-rich Roanoke. "He's going to be a little bit different" from other downballot candidates in '09. He'll have to introduce himself to GOP activists, though.
• State Sen. Jay O'Brien (R): From the high-priority Fairfax Co.-based exurbs, he may run for LG or Rep. Davis' VA 11 seat. Considered one of the more conservative members of the Sen.
• Ex-State Del. Paul Harris (R): The first black GOPer elected in VA in a long time, he went on to serve in Pres. Bush's DoJ and is now a lobbyist for Raytheon. He's "very well-known among party activists," continues to travel the rubber chicken circuit and is "someone who could run for either downticket spot next time around."
• State Sen. Mark Obenshain (R): The brother of the current VA GOP chair, he's a possible AG candidate in '09. He's "very charismatic."
• State Sen. Mark Herring (D): Just won special election in Loudon Co., a traditional GOP area. "He will move up somewhere."
• Sec/Finance Jody Wagner (D): "A very sharp and hard-working person." Lost to then-Rep. Ed Schrock (R) in heavily GOP VA 02 by just 7500 votes.
• Fairfax Co. Board Chair Gerry Connolly (D): "He's established" and could make a strong bid for Rep. Davis' VA 11 seat.
• State Del. David Englin (D): Ran an insurgent race against a group of established Dems in Fairfax Co. and beat them all.

Posted 05.26.06 10:08 AM | Comments (0)

Hotline After Dark -- We're Never In Reruns

Who needs to air a presser when you can see a member of the Bush family on "Access Hollywood?"

The fallout from the Pres. Bush/PM Tony Blair presser:

FNC's Hume: "The White House made quite an effort to get coverage for this event, staging it when they did, have it be an hour length, full-dress news conference. Once sensed that the reason was, in part at least to bring out Tony Blair."

CNN's Crowley: "What you saw here tonight is precisely what history will record, that these are two men who started this war together, basically, and who stuck with it, and are sticking with it now, saying, we cannot leave."

FNC's Barnes: "I thought this was a buck up press conference, trying to buck up America, buck up England."

CNN's J. King: "The point both of these leaders wanted to make was, they're confident now that, finally, Iraq now has a government that will work, that will stabilize the country and eventually allow them to bring the troops home."

Ex-WH adviser David Gergen: "I think a lot people watching tonight, the experts thought, as they watched President Bush and Prime Minister Blair, there was the sense of an end of an era, both people now fading."

Bush was asked a "mistakes" question from a British reporter and the president's response garnered a lot of punditry. Here's what Bush said: "Saying, 'Bring it on'; kind of tough talk, you know, that sent the wrong signal to people. I learned some lessons about expressing myself maybe in a little more sophisticated manner, you know. 'Wanted, dead or alive;' that kind of talk. I think in certain parts of the world it was misinterpreted. And so I learned from that. And, you know, I think the biggest mistake that's happened so far, at least from our country's involvement in Iraq, is Abu Ghraib. We've been paying for that for a long period of time."

Newsweek's Wolffe, on Bush's answer when asked about mistakes made: "It is very rehearsed, everything from the mannerisms you saw, the upwards glance up at the ceiling for inspiration. And for me, the big giveaway was at the end of that answer -- I don't know if you could see it on camera -- but the president flashed a big grin to those of us sitting in the front rows. It didn't seem that he was quite as contrite as his performance."

NBC's Gregory: "I think he was prepared to show some vulnerability here in areas where he felt comfortable. And I also don't think that you can say this was a window into his thinking that there was a deeper mistake."

MSNBC's Scarborough, on Bush's mistake admitting: "In sitcom lore, it would be like reminiscent of Fonzy admitting that he was wrong to Ritchie Cunningham."

NO LOVE FOR JOE

DNC Chair Howard Dean played "Hardball."

On Rep. William Jefferson (D-LA): "I think that Leader Pelosi has made it very clear that she thinks that the congressman ought to step aside from the Ways and Means Committee. I think we do have to understand that he's not indicted. If that happens, I think he's going to have more serious troubles. But we're going to be tough on everybody. We're not just going to be tough on Republicans."

On Sen. Joe Lieberman (D-CT): "I do not get involved in primaries. I'm at the chair of the Democratic National Committee. Our rule says that we do not get involved in primaries and I'm not getting involved with that one."

More: "We never endorsed any incumbents that are challenged in the primary, even incumbent Democrats. We have stayed out of primaries, that's the job of the DNC. We don't get involved in primaries. We're there to build the party. It's not up to us to decide which Democrat, we just want to make darn sure there is a Democrat."

On the New York Times' piece on the Clintons marriage: "That's just gossip and I would expect that to be in the New York Post, not the New York Times" (MSNBC, 5/25).

RUMMY AND CONDI DON'T SHARE TV TASTES

Defense Sec. Donald Rumsfeld was on "LKL" last night.

On VP Cheney: "I used to think of him as a promising young man when I hired him."

Asked if he watches "American Idol": "Heck, no!" (CNN, 5/25). [EMILY GOODIN]

Posted 05.26.06 07:19 AM | Comments (0)

May 25, 2006

Why Is Congress Protecting Itself?

Mike Krempasky has their talking points. (The real ones.)

Posted 05.25.06 08:14 PM | Comments (0)

Patricof? Gesundheit!

What the heck is Alan Patricof, the finance chair of Sen. Hillary Clinton's Senate campaign, doing as a featured blogger on HuffingtonPost.com?

HuffPost, after all, is the home for Hollywood liberal elite who are quite skeptical, to say the least, of Clinton's desirability as a candidate. (Check out this helpful Huffpost history.)

And should Hillary Clinton run for president, Patricof will likely be near the apex of her national finance team.

It could simply be that Patricof is an amiable guy. For this New York Times story on the Clinton's marriage, Patricof was one of the few genuine Clinton friends who agreed to be quoted on the record. And he divulged some tasty info about Clinton fundraising practices, to boot!

Patricof spends his day as co-founder of a very successful venture capital firm, Patricof and Co. (It's now Apax Partners.). For an amusing story about Patricof and the Internet, read this. [MARC AMBINDER]

Posted 05.25.06 07:18 PM | Comments (0)

Brian Ross Returns For More...

Elizabeth Vargas, in the fourth story of World News Tonight, spoke of a "storm of reaction" about Brian Ross's report, which characterized as stemming from sources who told Ross that Dennis Hastert "was among those whose dealings with Jack Abramoff the FBI has been looking into."

Ross said that DoJ sources have confirmed to him that:

--that the FBI interrogation of Abramoff included specific and repeated questions about his relationship with Hastert and other membrs of Congress
--that the FBI has been looking to the letter Ross mentioned last night

Ross ended with this: sources tell him that "it could well turn out that Hastert did nothing unlawful."

Here's the link to the ABCNews.com write up of Ross's latest report.

Here's the link to what Ross originally said last night.

Posted 05.25.06 06:38 PM | Comments (0)

I Order You, A.G. Gonzales, To...

The formal executive order, after the jump.

THE WHITE HOUS

Office of the Press Secretary

­

For Immediate Release May 25, 2006

May 25, 2006

MEMORANDUM FOR THE ATTORNEY GENERAL

THE SOLICITOR GENERAL OF THE UNITED STATES

SUBJECT: Handling of Materials Held by the Department of

Justice Following Execution of a Search Warrant

After taking appropriate account of the respective constitutional functions of the House of Representatives and of the executive branch, including important law enforcement interests, the protections afforded those functions under the Constitution, and the need for comity between the executive and legislative branches in the service of the American people, I direct that, with respect to the materials taken pursuant to the warrant dated May 18, 2006, and captioned "In the Matter of the Search of Rayburn House Office Building Room Number 2113," including any copies thereof or items derived in whole or in part therefrom:

(1) The Attorney General, acting through the Solicitor General of the United States who shall for this purpose be subject to no supervision by any officer of the Department of Justice other than the Attorney General, shall (a) preserve and seal the materials, (b) ensure that no use is made of the materials, and (c) ensure that no person has access to the materials, except that Office of the Solicitor General personnel under the direct supervision of the Solicitor General may have the minimum physical access to the materials essential to the preservation of the materials.

(2) The Attorney General shall endeavor, and the House of Representatives is respectfully encouraged to endeavor, to resolve any issues relating to the materials through discussions between them in good faith and with mutual institutional respect and, if it should prove necessary after exhaustion of such discussions, through appropriate proceedings in the courts of the United States.

The Attorney General shall keep me informed of discussions to which this memorandum refers and proceedings relating to the materials. This memorandum shall expire on July 9, 2006.

GEORGE W. BUSH

cc: The Speaker of the House of Representatives

Posted 05.25.06 05:41 PM | Comments (0)

Boehner Bucks Up His Troops

Maj. Leader John Boehner sent his pessimistic conference a pre-Memorial Day memo today urging them to buck up, square their shoulders, and return home proud of their Republican-ness.

Boehner writes that House Republicans "have come together" and
"taken significant steps forward" in "advancing an ambitious agenda for the American people." Republicans "are on the right side of the issues that the American people care about."

Dems' "angry, divisive rhetoric" is designed to "drive us apart" and "take the focus off their lack of an agenda."

Boehner next presents the GOP's vision statement: "We will promote the dignity and future of every individual by building a free society under a limited, accountable government that protects our liberty, security, and prosperity for a brighter American Dream."

You can read the rest of the memo after the jump, but here's what he says about border security and immigration.

The contrast between the two parties could not be greater on this issue. Democrats have constantly advocated troubling policies that encourage open borders and invite more and more illegal immigrants in addition to the estimated 10-12 million illegal immigrants that are already here.

With the Senate on the verge of passing a bill, it's important that we seek areas of common ground, while always stressing the most important priority for the American people is to secure our borders and stop illegal immigration. We can't underestimate the challenges that lie ahead of us. The American people want action, and we should be committed to working with our members of the Conference to see if we can find agreement on a responsible bill.

[MARC AMBINDER]

M E M O

To: House GOP Members

From: House Majority Leader John Boehner (R-OH)

Re: What Americans Should Know about the Republican Agenda for Prosperity & Security

Date: 25 May 06

Over the last five weeks, House Republicans have come together as a team and taken significant steps forward in advancing an ambitious agenda for the American people. We are on the right side of the issues that the American people care about.

For all of the Democrats' angry, divisive rhetoric that is designed to drive us apart and take the focus off their lack of an agenda, we have steadied ourselves and focused on the issues at hand: a commitment to fiscal discipline on behalf of taxpayers; strengthening our economy that is providing robust job creation; securing our borders and addressing illegal immigration; offering real solutions to help drive down gasoline prices; and responding to the ever-present threat posed by terrorism and the forces behind it seeking to do our nation harm.

After months of work and input from our members, we adopted a common "vision statement" that draws a clear contrast between the values that unite us as Republicans and those of the Democrats. It says:

For the Next American Century:

We will promote the dignity and future of every individual by building a free society under a limited, accountable government that protects our liberty, security, and prosperity for a brighter American Dream.

Consistent with our principles and our vision, we will move forward on our agenda. As we head back to our districts for the Memorial Day district work period, I wanted to share some thoughts about what Americans should know about our agenda and our accomplishments.

Fiscal Discipline and Our Growing Economy

As Republicans, we must continue to remind our constituents about our party's stewardship of economic growth in this country that has resulted in nearly 5.3 million new jobs since August 2003, 32 consecutive months of job creation, and a low 4.7 percent unemployment rate that is below the average of the 1970s, 80s, and 90s.

This didn't just happen by chance, and Americans should know that. We have delivered tax relief to working families, seniors, and small businesses that have helped expand our economy to open the door for more Americans to enjoy economic prosperity and join the growing ownership society. Keeping taxes low, coupled with fiscal restraint and economic growth, is providing greater-than-expected tax revenues to the federal government and making real progress in driving down our deficit.

Americans should know that Nancy Pelosi and her tax-and-spend Democrats on Capitol Hill fought us every step of the way. When we prevented a massive Democrat tax hike and ensured working Americans could continue to keep more of their own money, the Democrats said "No, that money belongs in Washington, DC." When we passed a fiscally-responsible budget that spends taxpayer dollars wisely, Democrats demanded more reckless spending. While we exercise fiscal restraint in the appropriations process, Democrats have requested $26.1 billion in new spending so far this year above and beyond what is fiscally responsible, putting them squarely at odds with the interests of taxpayers. This is a fundamental difference between Republicans and Democrats. We want to protect the taxpayer's wallet; Democrats want to raid it.

We must always remember that protecting American taxpayers from the disastrous and just plain wrong Big Government philosophies of Nancy Pelosi and her Democrat friends on Capitol Hill is an important part of our jobs as we represent the interests of working families.

Border Security: Stopping Illegal Immigration and Open Border Policies

Americans should know that Republicans in Congress are serious about securing America's borders and shutting down the flow of illegal immigration into our cities and states. We've responded to the concerns of the American people by passing a tough border security bill that delivers resources where they are needed to make our borders safe and prevent sanctuaries for illegal immigrations in our border states and beyond.

The contrast between the two parties could not be greater on this issue. Democrats have constantly advocated troubling policies that encourage open borders and invite more and more illegal immigrants in addition to the estimated 10-12 million illegal immigrants that are already here. Nancy Pelosi and her Democrat friends in Washington, D.C. opposed the strong border security bill passed by the House in December and fought common-sense REAL ID legislation to prevent illegal immigrants and terrorists from obtaining state ID cards that would allow them to travel freely throughout the U.S.

With the Senate on the verge of passing a bill, it's important that we seek areas of common ground, while always stressing the most important priority for the American people is to secure our borders and stop illegal immigration. We can't underestimate the challenges that lie ahead of us. The American people want action, and we should be committed to working with our members of the Conference to see if we can find agreement on a responsible bill.

National Security: A Choice Between Resolve or Retreat

Americans should know that on the issue of national security, they have a choice between a Republican Party that understands the stakes and is dedicated to victory, and a Democrat Party with a non-existent national security policy that sheepishly dismisses the challenges of a post- 9/11 world and is all too willing to concede defeat on the battlefield in Iraq.

The American people are understandably concerned about our mission in a post-Saddam Iraq. As a nation, we have faced many challenges in Iraq since its liberation and transition to a sovereign democracy. But while Democrats are all too eager to seize upon the challenges we face as their rationale or motivation for retreat, as Republicans who understand the diplomatic and national security hazards of such a move, we must echo the American public's understanding of just how great the stakes are in Iraq to our long term efforts to win the War on Terrorism.

Building a democracy in a part of the world that has known nothing but tyranny and despotism is a hard thing to do. But achieving victory there and gaining a democratic ally in democracy in the region will be the best gift of security we can give to future generations of Americans.

Republican Action Vs. Democrat Negligence on Gas Prices

Americans should know just how much work Republicans have done to build a stronger energy future for America restructure our nation's energy policy so that we're no longer held hostage to foreign sources of energy production. We are on the verge of acting to authorize environmentally-safe energy production in ANWR, and we have supported expanding refinery capacity, banning price gouging, and establishing incentives to encourage development of breakthrough hydrogen technologies - all efforts that build on the Energy Policy Act signed into law last year.

Americans should also know about the chronic negligence of Nancy Pelosi and her Democrat colleagues in responding to the concerns of the American people. Democrats have opposed every responsible effort to increase America's energy supplies are directly responsible for the higher gasoline prices that working families are faced with today.

The choice between the two parties is clear: While House Republicans have a comprehensive energy strategy to help protect the pocketbooks of American consumers, the Democrat Party has been hijacked by left-wing environmentalists and stonewalled every responsible and common-sense proposal to help secure America's energy needs.

Our Republican Agenda: Looking Forward

From a fiscally-responsible budget to preventing a massive Democrat tax increase, from spending restraint to lobbying and earmark reform, from securing our ports to strengthening our intelligence capabilities, from supporting our troops with the funding, armor, and equipment to get the job done to honoring our veterans and assisting the victims of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, House Republicans have accomplished a lot on behalf of the American people over the last five weeks.

In the coming weeks and months, we have much more to accomplish. We'll continue our work to hold the line on spending, we'll work on border security and pension security, and providing affordable health care to working families, and we'll work to help lower energy prices for working Americans. And that's just a start.

We have a tremendous opportunity ahead of us. United together behind a common vision that reflects our principles and values as Republicans, we will be successful in moving our ambitious agenda and responding to the concerns of the American people.

Posted 05.25.06 05:30 PM | Comments (1)

The Rove-Novak Call

On September 29, 2003, three days after it became known that the CIA had asked the Justice Department to investigate who leaked the name of covert CIA officer Valerie Plame, columnist Robert Novak telephoned White House senior adviser Karl Rove to assure Rove that he would protect him from being harmed by the investigation, according to people with firsthand knowledge of the federal grand jury testimony of both men. More from National Journal's Murray Waas.

Posted 05.25.06 05:17 PM | Comments (0)

Concern In The Ranks

Not all in the House GOP Conference are happy about their Speaker's effort to flex co-equal congressional muscle.

At an afternoon meeting of the Conference where Hastert outlined Pres Bush's stopgap intervention, we hear from a House source that multiple members stood up to say, in essence, "we are on the wrong side of this issue."

The feeling is that the public will miss the weighty Constitutional questions at stake and only see DC politicians defending their own. [JONATHAN MARTIN]

Posted 05.25.06 05:03 PM | Comments (0)

On The Trail: It's Now Or Never

If Hillary Clinton has such a commanding lead in the "invisible" '08 Democratic primary, why does the field of candidates continue to grow? Could it be, asks Chuck Todd, that it's now or never for most of her potential challengers.

Read On The Trail.

Check out our latest
White House 2008 Rankings

Clinton (D) continues to float atop the sea Democratic hopefuls (even giving a series of policy speeches), but there's no hint of other candidates rolling over yet either (see "On The Trail" for more on that topic). In fact, a new but familiar face appears in our Democratic top tier this month. As for Republicans, there's still John McCain and, well, John McCain.

These rankings are based on a number of factors, including: organization, money, buzz and polling. The two candidates in our two top spots are the candidates who are doing well in all four attributes. As always, these rankings are done in coordination with Hotline Associate Editor Marc Ambinder, who should be considered the co-author of the text.

Posted 05.25.06 04:46 PM | Comments (0)

More From DC's Hottest New Couple

Statement release jointly by Speaker Hastert and Min Leader Pelosi:

"Today, we are directing the House Counsel to begin negotiations with the Department of Justice regarding the protocols and procedures to be followed in connection with evidence of criminal conduct that might exist in the offices of Members."

Posted 05.25.06 04:24 PM | Comments (0)

One Fine Lash For Warner

Kathy Lash has joined Mark Warner's Forward Together PAC as a political deputy, working with Warner's top political strategist, Mame Reiley.

Lash, married to ex-Dean mgr Joe Trippi, has worked on many Virginia-based congressional campaigns and political staffs.

In 1990, Lash worked for Reiley when Reiley managed Jim Moran (D-VA)'s come-from-behind defeat of incumbent Rep. Stan Parris (R) in VA 08.

We asked Trippi whether we should read anything into Lash's new gig.

He said no. "I think the world of Mark, but I'm not signed up with any presidential candidate at this point." [MARC AMBINDER]

Posted 05.25.06 02:22 PM | Comments (0)

The GOP's Biggest Liability

You know things are bad when the GOP is losing support not just among Dems (hardly a shocker), but among fellow GOPers. The latest Diageo/Hotline poll shows GOPers are less likely now to re-elect their current member of Congress then they have ever been in this poll with only 31% favoring their incumbent. Now looking at the Dem side, the number is even lower (26%), but keep in mind the obvious point here -- Dems are not the majority.

And, as a tie breaker, indies are siding with Dems on this one with a plurality looking for a fresh face in Congress (29%) as opposed to the anemic 19% who favor the status quo.

So what happened to make the GOP outlook for the midterms so grim? A shorter list would be what didn't happen. Pres. Bush needs to lay low. It seems in the eyes of the electorate he can do no right. This poll marks yet another all time low for Bush -- a term that has been used so often it has lost all meaning. The one silver lining for the Bush admin. is that neither the POTUS or VP never have to face the wrath of the voters again. Not true for the rest of the party. But Dems should hold off on the bubbly. This only makes it theirs to lose.

In a split sample question, 9% of regis. voters don't agree with what the Dems are doing, as opposed to 17% of GOPers in sample A. That switches to 7% and 19% respectively in sample B. But that begs the question of who exactly knows what the Dems are up to? Who among the electorate could explain what their positions are as we rapidly approach the midterms? Is this a question for the next Diageo/Hotline poll? [AOIFE MCCARTHY]

Posted 05.25.06 02:06 PM | Comments (0)

The Push Back Continues

David Westin
George Stephanopoulos
Brain Ross

ABC News
7 West 66th St.
New York, NY 10023

RE: False Story Regarding Justice Department Investigation

Dear Mr. Westin, Stephanopoulos, and Mr. Ross:

At 7:25 p.m., the Statement of the Department of Justice confirmed:
"Speaker Hastert is not under investigation by the Justice Department."

At 10:21 p.m., you wrote:

"Whether they like it or not, members of Congress, including Hastert, are under investigation," on federal official said tonight."

This statement is false, and your republication of it after actual knowledge of its falsity constitutes libel and defamation. ABC News' continued publication of this false information, after having actual knowledge of its falsity, evidences a specific and malicious intent to injure and damage Speaker Hastert's reputation by continued repetition of a known falsehood.

We will take any and all actions necessary to rectify the harm ABC has caused and to hold those at ABC responsible for their conduct.

Please advise regarding who will accept service of process to remedy this intentional falsehood.

Very truly yours,

J. Randolph Evans
Stefan C. Passantino
Counsel to Speaker J. Dennis Hastert

Posted 05.25.06 12:13 PM | Comments (15)

The Midnight Hour

Check out this faxed statement that Dep AG Paul McNulty released last night in support of Speaker/Coach Hastert. Our favorite part is the fax stamp at the top of the document. Note the hour it was sent over from "DOJ ODAG" to Denny's press shop.

Only to have been a fly on the wall (or on Bonjean's phone)in the Capitol for a few hours last night.

Posted 05.25.06 11:41 AM | Comments (0)

American Idle: Unpacking The '08 PACs

At least some of your Hotline editors are not American Idol fans and couldn't name the two finalists (although Katherine McPhee is apparently a registered Democrat.)

We spent the evening looking at '08 (potential) presidential candidate PAC filings for clues about strategy. As always, PoliticalMoneyLine.com made our evening much more pleasant.

Sen. John McCain's Straight Talk America PAC continues to do what PACs generally are supposed to do. The PAC wrote ten checks to state parties at $5K a pop, made at least two dozen direct donations to candidates running for House and Senate, and sent more than 100 checks to candidates running for governor, or for local offices, or to county Republican parties. Its biggest expense continues to be airplanes, because McCain, in order to get from, say, Liberty University in VA to Utah, flies charter whenever he can. STA has seven paid staff members.

McCain's chief strategist, John Weaver, and longtime adviser Mike Dennehyare paid through a political consulting disbursement. The PAC spent $7,500 to rent "Top Of The Rock" in NYC for a fundraiser. And interestingly, the majority of its April contributions came from Arizonans.

Rudy Giuliani is clearly ramping up his pre-presidential activity. His Solutions America PAC raised nothing -- it has a multimillion dollar fundraiser scheduled for June -- but it spent more in April than in the previous six months combined.

Witness these disbursements, per PoliticalMoneyLine.com:

FUNDRAISING CONSULTANT $25,000
1 PURCHASE COMPUTER EQUIPMENT $21,423
1 COMPLIANCE CONSULTANT $3,750
1 PURCHASE TELECOM EQUIPMENT $2,499
1 RENT $1,717
1 TELECOM CONSULTANT/LEASE PHONES $1,577
1 CONTRACT LABOR-ADMINISTRATIVE WORK $430

Sen. Bill Frist's VOLPAC continues to dig for as many potential donors as possible. It purchased a $32,045 list from Precision List in VA. It spent more than $120K -- almost a third of its entire expenditures -- on direct mail and direct mail postage. VOLPAC paid eight staff directly. Notable contributors include the CEO of Quaker Oats, William Smithburg, and Jeffrey McWaters, the Virginia-based GOP mega-donor and president of Amerigroup.

Ex-VA Gov. Mark Warner's PAC is bi-iig. It spends a lot on staff -- 100K a month. That said, there's a reasonable and appropriate explanation for its size, which is that Warner, unlike, say, Sen. Evan Bayh or Gov. Bill Richardson, no longer has an official staff to perform the rudimentary functions of policy generation and political/schedule planning.

Warner's PAC pays for his communications staff, his policy specialists, his web team and his personal assistants. The PAC paid Peter Hart Research Assoc. $63,000 for "research." Hart (D) helps to poll for the NBC News/WSJ survey. Dem strategist Kenneth Baer's firm received $10K. Baer is helping Warner with speeches. Notable contributions include more than $74K from employees of E-Trade Financial.

Sen. Russ Feingold's Progressive Patriots Fund is growing. It spent $75K on a direct mail solicitation in April and has nine paid staff members. [MARC AMBINDER]

Posted 05.25.06 10:26 AM | Comments (0)

Hotline After Dark -- Don't Get "Lost," Get Even

We're no longer "Lost" and "American Idol" has sang its last song, but cable will always be there.

ABC's Ross was on "GMA" this morning to address the controversy surrounding his report on Speaker Denny Hastert: "Despite flat and repeated denials from the Department of Justice, federal law enforcement officials insist to ABC News that the FBI investigation of Capitol Hill corruption has widened to include potentially Speaker of the House Denny Hastert."

More Ross: "Hastert says the story is untrue and has demanded a retraction. Our sources say Hastert is not considered the formal subject or target at this time but that the FBI will soon seek documents from him and other members of Congress, based on information from the convicted lobbyist [Jack] Abramoff. The investigation, of course, is in its very early stages and it's very possible it will turn out there was nothing unlawful about Hastert's relationship with Abramoff" (5/25).

Washington Post's Milbank, on the ABC report: "It is, perhaps, a bit unfair to the speaker, in the sense that something like half the Republican caucus and a large number of Democrats have some ties to Abramoff and his clients through the money chain. Hastert is no exception. ... Hastert's name has not come up at all until now, and we're pretty far down the road here. So it seems pretty plausible, what the Justice Department and the FBI are saying tonight, that this is more of a routine matter" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 5/24).

AND NOW, WE TURN OUR ATTENTION TO THOSE WHO WOULD BE PRESIDENT

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) was on "LKL." (And made the morning show rounds this a.m.)

Asked about being booed at New School Univ., McCain: "It's unfortunate, because these young people now will have a duller life because they won't listen to the views of those that they disagree with. And that's unfortunate because the whole theme of my speech was interestingly and ironically is that we should strongly disagree with one another."

McCain also said he has not seen Al Gore's movie (CNN, 5/24).

Sen. George Allen (R-VA) was on "Hardball" to talk about immigration. He was also asked about the national anthem debate, taking the opportunity to remind us: "Francis Scott Key composed it in English when we were fighting the English in the War of 1812."

And he was asked about the confederate flag controversy, Allen: "As a kid and in college, yes, I was a maverick anti-establishment and there's certain things that all of us have done when we were kids that may not make much sense 30, 40 years later. As far as all of that's concerned, I looked at the confederate flag and the Virginia flag and the Betsy Ross flag. I like flags, I collected them, it was part of a collection. And it was in my own home."

More: "I didn't look at the confederate flag or anything other than historic or regional pride issue, in Virginia, it's part of the history of Virginia. I do recognize and have grown through the years and recognize that particularly since the confederate flag has been used and appropriated by hate groups, the Klan and others, that for others it means something much different than history or heritage. Or like on the top of the 'Dukes of Hazard' car" (MSNBC, 5/24).

Sec/State Condoleezza Rice was on "Hannity & Colmes" and was asked about the protesters at Boston College. Rice: "I have been a university professor for many years. I've been a university provost at universities and controversy. It's not really a headline. And people were respectful. The crowd was terrific, and there were very few people who wanted to protest. They did so in a way that was not disruptive, and I will defend their right to protest" (FNC, 5/24).

TV GONE WILD

WH spokesperson Tony Snow was on "Lou Dobbs Tonight" last night and Lou Dobbs greeted him with this: "I have been blackballed by the White House for about four years now, because I've said things like radical Islamists when referring to the enemies in the war on terror, criticizing many of the president's policies. And I just want to compliment you in your early tenure as press secretary for having the fortitude, the intelligence and the class to break that embargo and come on here and talk."

Snow: "Oh, Lou, don't get me into situations like this" (CNN, 5/24).

And ex-Pres. Jimmy Carter was in the "Situation Room," where Wolf Blitzer congratulated on him and Walter Mondale becoming the longest living ex-pres. and vp. Carter: "All you have to do is live a long life and choose a healthy vice president" (CNN, 5/24).

Posted 05.25.06 07:23 AM | Comments (1)

Rallying 'Round The Coach

House GOPers will take to the floor this morning to "Rally Behind Our Speaker," as one staffer for Rep. Lee Terry (R-NE) put it in an email circulated to fellow GOP aides.

The "one-minutes" will be used to "refute the irresponsible, incorrect accusations made [last night] on ABC's Nightly News."

And just to get those partisan juices flowing, the Terry staffer reminded his colleagues:

"Dan Rather tried it and failed."

Look for the red meat to be served up starting at 10 a.m.

[JONATHAN MARTIN]

Posted 05.25.06 06:43 AM | Comments (1)

May 24, 2006

ABC Standing By Report

10:21 update:

ABC has gone back to its sources and reconfirmed:

"You guys wrote the story very carefully but they are not reading it very carefully," a senior official said.

Posted 05.24.06 10:46 PM | Comments (0)

Hastert's Rep Responds To ABC Story

Ron Bonjean, Speaker Hastert's comm. dir., issued this statement:

"The ABC News report is absolutely untrue. As confirmed by the Justice Department, 'Speaker Hastert is not under investigation by the Justice Department.' We are demanding a full retraction of the ABC News story. The Speaker's earlier statement issued today accurately reflects the facts regarding this matter."

Posted 05.24.06 08:34 PM | Comments (1)

DoJ: Hastert Is Not Under Investigation

This is blunt.

From the Department of Justice:

"Speaker Hastert is not under investigation by the Justice Department."

Posted 05.24.06 08:07 PM | Comments (1)

Don't DeWine About Nelson's Vote...

A Democrat who reads NRSC press releases religiously noticed something interesting about a missive sent out today criticizing Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE) for having "decided to follow his party leadership" and rejecting the Mitch McConnell national voting photo ID amendment.

"Instead of voting for a sensible measure to require a photo I.D. in order to vote, Senator Nelson decided to follow his party leadership," said NRSC Spokesman Brian Walton. "Reducing voter fraud shouldn't be a partisan issue, but apparently for Ben Nelson it is."

Fair enough.

But joining Nelson in voting against the amendment: Sens. Lincoln Chafee and Sen. Mike DeWine (R-OH)

We will reward this Dem with a blind quote: "The Shotgun approach always hits a friend... ask Dick Cheney."

Today In The Senate, Senator Ben Nelson (D-NE) Voted Against A Simple Anti-Fraud Measure To Require All Voters To Present Photo Identifications At The Polls.

Immigration Overhaul-Voter Identification. "Dodd, D-Conn., motion to table (kill) the McConnell, R-Ky., amendment no. 4085 that would require all voters to present a photo identification at the polls that meets federal standards under a 2005 law." (S. 2611, CQ Vote #143: Motion rejected 48-49: R 4-49; D 43-0; I 1-0, May 24, 2006, Ben Nelson Voted Yea)

In A Recent Poll, 81% Favored Requiring Voters To Show Valid Photo IDs When They Vote. (NBC/Wall Street Journal Poll, 1005 adults, +/-3.1%, April 21-24, 2006)

The Photo ID Requirement Was Recommended By A Bipartisan Commission Co-Chaired By Jimmy Carter. "[Senator McConnell] noted that the photo ID requirement was recommended last year by a bipartisan voting reform commission chaired by former Democratic President Jimmy Carter and former Republican Secretary of State James A. Baker III." (Michael Sandler, "Senate Limits Debate, Moves Toward Final Immigration Vote," CQ Today, May 24, 2006)

Posted 05.24.06 07:27 PM | Comments (0)

"The Highest Levels?"

ABC News' Brian Ross reported tonight that
the Jack Abramoff bribery scandal "has led FBI investigators to some of the most powerful members of Congress," namely Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-IL).

Ross reported that "based on information" obtained by investigators, Hastert is "very much in the mix of the corruption investigation."

Ross and co. say the investigation centers on a letter Hastert wrote to interior sec. Gale Norton blocking a casino on an Indian reservation that would benefit tribes repped by Abramoff. The letter was written after a Signature's fundraiser.

(This bit of info is old news, but if investigators are focusing on it, then many other members who wrote similar letters could be in trouble.)

The report quoted a Hastert spokesman as saying Hastert was not aware he was being scrutinized and had not been asked by DoJ to turn over any information.

Posted 05.24.06 06:30 PM | Comments (3)

McCain Returns The Wyly Money

Sen. John McCain's Straight Talk America PAC returned $20K in contributions from Sam and Charles Wyly after the STA finance team learned that the Wylys were under federal investigation for alleged tax evasion.

McCain attended a May 15 fundraiser in Austin, TX co-hosted by the Wyly brothers.

"After the checks were received from Sam and Charles Wyly, it was discovered through the normal vetting process here at Straight Talk America that a federal inquiry is ongoing into the two gentlemen," said STA exec. dir. Craig Goldman in a statement. "Once that was discovered, we have a policy internally not to accept contributions from people in that situation, so the checks were returned."

"And at our request they did not attend the fundraiser in Dallas."

You'll recall that in 2000, the duo spent millions to air ads designed to hurt McCain in early primary states.

Lots of news organizations are pursuing this story, so expect to read the blow-by-blow tomorrow. [MARC AMBINDER]

Posted 05.24.06 03:55 PM | Comments (1)

Picking The Cork(er)

The DSCC has issued a second release this week attacking ex-Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker (R) in the TN SEN race.

This is somewhat unusual, given that Corker is still fighting to emerge from a hotly-contested primary which won't conclude for another two months.

Could this be an indication that Dems would prefer that Rep. Harold Ford Jr. (D) ends up facing either ex-Rep. Van Hilleary (R) or ex-Rep. Ed Bryant (R) rather than Corker this fall? Yes.

If nominated, Corker would probably begin a general election campaign in much better financial shape than his GOP rivals, given his head start in fundraising.

And although all 3 candidates refer to themselves as conservatives, Corker is perceived as the moderate of the field and might be better-positioned to appeal to swing voters. Of course, GOPers who oppose Corker would argue that his inability to excite grassroots conservative activists would make him a weaker nominee than the others. In any event, it's also quite possible that the DSCC releases merely indicate they believe Corker WILL win the primary in August and are just hoping to soften him up early. [QUINN MCCORD]

Posted 05.24.06 03:49 PM | Comments (0)

Pelosi And Hastert Demand Jefferson's Papers Be Returned

The reaction from Republican strategists: Hey, guys, wasn't Jefferson supposed to help us get rid of the DeLay taint?

The reaction from liberals: Um, so NOW the Democratic leadership pays attention to constitutional violations?

The (possible) reaction from voters: Boy, are these folks out of touch.

(Washington, D.C.) Speaker of the House J. Dennis Hastert (R-IL) and Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) issued the following statement regarding the Federal Bureau of Investigation's search of a Congressional office:

"No person is above the law, neither the one being investigated nor those conducting the investigation."

"The Justice Department was wrong to seize records from Congressman Jefferson's office in violation of the Constitutional principle of Separation of Powers, the Speech or Debate Clause of the Constitution, and the practice of the last 219 years. These constitutional principles were not designed by the Founding Fathers to place anyone above the law. Rather, they were designed to protect the Congress and the American people from abuses of power, and those principles deserve to be vigorously defended."

"Accordingly, the Justice Department must immediately return the papers it unconstitutionally seized. Once that is done, Congressman Jefferson can and should fully cooperate with the Justice Department's efforts, consistent with his constitutional rights."

"In addition, the Justice Department must immediately cease any further review of the documents it unconstitutionally seized, ensure that those who have reviewed the documents do not divulge their contents to the investigators, and move in Court to vitiate the search warrant."

The strategist in us wonders if leaders should heed the words of Sen. John Warner (R-VA), who warns that Congress "should not set itself apart from citizens

Posted 05.24.06 03:35 PM | Comments (2)

House Race Hotline Update: CA 50 Is Close

The 6/6 CA 50 runoff between ex-Rep. Brian Bilbray (R) and Francine Busby (D) will test the potency of both immigration and ethics -- two of the main '06 campaign issues.

The DCCC has hammered away at Bilbray in ads over ties to lobbyists. A win or close call by Busby would suggest that ethical missteps could, in fact, play nationally. Or else that the conservative base just isn't that interested in helping elect Republicans.

If Bilbray wins comfortably, he can credit border security. It's been his campaign's dominant theme. One of his ads shows him talking to Border Patrol agents, saying that securing the border "cannot wait another day." Busby, by contrast, prefers a less hawkish proposal. Will GOPers need to toughen ethics reform proposals? Do Dems need to take a firmer position on border security? The runoff results next month will provide some answers.

Here's what makes Republicans nervous about the race, though: the party is fractured, with millionaire Bill Hauf attacking Bilbray on his right flank.

And despite Bilbray's immig. credentials and criticism of Bush on the issue, the San Diego Minutemen endorsed an independent, William Griffith.

Total spending for this compact special election: more than $10 million.

BTW: outside of CA 50, the Golden State won't be hosting many competitive elections in the fall. But term limits in Sacramento are creating tough primaries for many members in "safe" districts:

-- CA 06: State Assemblyman Joe Nation (D), with a base in Marin Co., has raised more than $430K to mount a serious challenge to Rep. Lynn Woolsey (D). He's used the money to air several TV ads -- one attacking Woolsey for lacking legislative accomplishments.

-- CA 11: Liberal ex-Rep. Pete McCloskey (R), who ran against Nixon in '72, is trying to make a comeback against Rep. Richard Pombo (R). This will be more of a referendum over Pombo's ethics than McCloskey's viability. If he fails to win big, Pombo could face a real fight this fall.

-- CA 51: Rep. Bob Filner (D) is only one of three white members to hold majority-Hispanic CDs. State Rep. Juan Vargas (D), trumpeting his ethnic roots, is mounting his third primary challenge against him. (He won 46% against Filner in '96.) But every local Latino organization endorsed Filner. Which will be a more powerful factor for voters: incumbency or ethnicity? [JOSH KRAUSHAAR AND MARC AMBINDER]

Posted 05.24.06 02:51 PM | Comments (0)

Hotline's Quote Of The Day

"His leadership was critical to the development and passage of our economic plan."

-- ex-Pres. Clinton and Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY), in a joint statement on the late Lloyd Bentsen, Los Angeles Times, 5/24

Posted 05.24.06 12:47 PM | Comments (0)

Pelosi To Jefferson: RESIGN...from Ways & Means

Just released from House Min Leader Nancy Pelosi's office:

May 24, 2006

Congressman William J.