May 31, 2006
Countdown To Super Midterm Tuesday -- Iowa Preview
Six days and counting until the biggest primary day of the year. Today, we look at Iowa, home to some of the most competitive and interesting races of the cycle. The marquee race is IA GOV where Democrats are defending their long open seat in the nation. Given Iowa's importance in the presidential election (both in the primary stage and the general election), the next governor of Iowa is automatically a national figure, be it as a potential running mate or as a kingmaker for a future president.
The Republicans are united behind Jim Nussle, who has to hope that his first name remains "Jim" and not "Congressman" throughout the fall campaign. Nussle has a ton of campaign talent but the baggage of the Republican Congress is going to be heavy.
The Democratic primary is essentially down to two candidates, Sec/State Chet Culver, son of ex-IA Sen. John Culver, and ex-Rep. Mike Blouin who hasn't run for elective office in nearly 20 years. There is a third candidate, Ed Fallon, who has shown surprising grassroots strength but just doesn't have the money to close.
The Des Moines Democratic establishment basically recruited Blouin into the race, fearing that Culver didn't have the graviitas to beat Nussle. While outgoing Gov. Tom Vilsack publicly denies showing any favortism toward Blouin, the Culver folks believe the speculation and, frankly, there's plenty of circumstantial evidence to back it up.
Blouin's fundraising got off to a slow start and given the name I.D. disadvantage he had, that wasn't a good sign. Blouin needs to be outspending Culver almost 2-1 to make up the gap, something he probably won't be able to do. The Des Moines Register endorsement can actually matter in a Dem primary and Blouin nabbed it. Expect this primary to be closer than polls have shown but consider Culver the favorite.
Two other very hot races in IA are in the state's 1st CD where both parties have primaries to decide who will face off in the race to replace Nussle. The 1st CD is a Democratic district that Nussle has somehow figured out how to hold. Both party primaries have forced the candidates to appeal to their respective bases which is probably more of a problem for the Republicans in the fall than the Democrats.
Some questions that could be answered this time next week:
-- Is Vilsack's political standing hurt a bit in the state if Blouin doesn't beat Culver? What does that mean for Vilsack's presidential prospects, particularly if Culver ends up as governor? The one WH '08er who has given Culver the most love is John Edwards.
-- Will the GOP nominee in IA 01 be too conservative to win in November? The one saving grace for House Republicans when it comes to Iowa is Democrat Leonard Boswell. He's probably the most vulnerable Democratic House incumbent in the country. The Republicans could lose IA 01 and still break even in the state if Republican Jeff Lamberti is as strong as he looks right now in IA 03. [CHUCK TODD]
Posted at 07:38 PM
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