May 30, 2006
Super Midterm Tuesday -- Introduction
One week from today is the midterm cycle's version of "Super Tuesday," where voters in 8 states will be heading to the polls in every time zone in the lower 48 to pick nominees for SEN, GOV and the House. There will be a lot to learn for many. Each day between now and Super Midterm Tuesday, we'll be previewing a state and offering up questions we hope to have answered by this time next Wednesday.
First up -- Alabama.
One word sums up this state for us: disappointment. A year ago, we thought the Roy Moore-Bob Riley AL GOV GOP primary would be one for the history books. Instead, Moore's turned out to be a dud candidate, sort of a one-trick pony. On the Democratic side, we've found the attempt by ex-Gov. Don Siegelman to use his trial as a political tool to attack Riley amusing. Is this really some sort of Riley witch hunt against Siegelman or is Siegelman hoping to use his campaign as a way to convince the jury that the charges against him are political in nature? No matter, it appears LG Lucy Baxley is going to coast to the Dem nod.
Our questions:
-- What is the hidden Moore vote? Can he crack 40% and show us that the Southern religious right is still a powerful force?
-- Is there a hidden anti-woman vote, making Baxley's attempt at becoming Alabama's first woman GOV not married to George Wallace that much steeper? Should Baxley-Siegelman be a nail-biter, I think we'll have our answer.
-- Some key numbers to know: In the '98 Dem GOV primary, approx. 360K Dems particiated in what was a fairly uncompetitive contest. Should Dem turnout be lower than '98, the party may have some serious soul-searching to do. For comparison purposes, the '04 WH Dem primary in AL (which took place in June and featured only Kerry and Kucinich) attracted about 220K Dems to the polls.
-- On the GOP side, the very competitive '02 GOV primary attracted approx. 350K folks to the polls. For comparison purposes, the '00 WH GOP primary sported about 200K GOPers (like the WH Dems in '04, the WH GOP contest was essentially over by the time AL rolled around in '00).
-- Next On Or SMT Radar: Iowa [CHUCK TODD]
Posted at 05:48 PM
Comments
The comparison numbers are strange -- haven't the number of democrats declinded between 1998 and now in all southern states, AL included? Eight years was a long time ago. More helpful would be the percentage 360K represented of the registered democrats back then. I find it hard to believe that there will be 10K more republicans than dems on tuesday.
Matthew | 05.30.06 09:21 PM
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