May 01, 2006

The Hotline Futures Market: South Dakota

What's the Hotline Futures Market? It's our exclusive look at the up-and-comers in every party in every state. You won't a list like this anywhere else. If you've missed a state, check out our archives.

"Our stables are pretty full," says one GOPer, and even Dems think they have some hot candidates for the future. The race to replace Gov. Mike Rounds (R) will feature a number of our up-and-comers, and the race to replace whoever wins seems to already be well under way. A recent bill banning nearly all abortions in SD has caused some rancor in both parties, as people who voted for the bill are seen easily-labeled as extremists. Dems are apparently relishing the opportunity to clean house, and some GOPers are looking in places other than the capitol building for their next candidates. '06 and '08 could be bloody years in SD. [REID WILSON]

The stars we've been watching since '03:

• Ex-State Sen. Larry Diedrich (R): Considering a come-back bid for the State Sen., but "the last election was pretty tough on him."
• Ex-Sen. Maj. Leader Barb Everist (R): No longer seen as a contender.
• State Sen. Brock Greenfield (R): Many "do not see him having the capacity" to make the leap to statewide office.
• Atty Mark Mickelson (R): Hasn't started his real political career, aside from fundraising, but he's got the potential. "He's in the mix."
• Fall River Co. State's Atty Lance Russell (R): Won a race that was closer than it should have been, so he's not seen as an emerging threat to run statewide.
• DM&E Railroad Consultant Larry Russell (R): Russell ran an effort notarizing ballots for the state GOP that came under fire, and while no one thinks he did anything wrong, several of his underlings were sanctioned for improper actions during the race. "He could overcome that eventually, but not in the near future."
• State Sen. Lee Schoenbeck (R): "He will probably be a force in" '10, but he's not seeking re-election in '06.
• Butte Co. State's Atty Jim Seward (R): "He's bright, he's articulate, he does not seem to represent any extreme cause or any extreme wing," so he could have a future.
• State Rep. Maggie Gillespie (D): No longer a viable candidate.
• School & Public Lands Commis. Bryce Healy (D): Still considered a possible future candidate, he's said to be thinking about running for Gov in 4 year.
• Rep. Stephanie Herseth (D): A private citizen when we met her, after two tough campaigns, no serious challenger has emerged to take her on in '06.
• Minnehaha Co. Dep. State's Atty Brendan Johnson (D): The son of Sen. Tim Johnson (D), he "will definitely run for" statewide office in the future.
• Ex-State Sen. Mel Olson (D): "He's taken himself out of politics."
• Sioux Falls City Councillor Darrin Smith (D): Running for mayor in 4/06, "that will, in part, determine whether or not he has a future statewide." "Has aspirations to run statewide."
• State Sen. Dan Sutton (D): Some of his votes in the state legislature suggest that he's not interested in a statewide bid.
• '02 LG nom Mike Wilson (D): "I wish he" had a future, but "he's had a string of bad luck." "Well thought-of," so he's always on peoples' lists.

• Speaker Matt Michaels (R): Retiring as State Rep in anticipation of a future Gov. bid. He thinks it'll be easier to run for Gov if he's not in office. "Everybody likes Matt."
• Public Utilities Commis. Dusty Johnson (R): At just 29 years old, he's "the biggest star in the state" after beat an 18-year incumbent Dem.
• State Rep. Shantel Krebs (R): In her first term, she's "articulate, a go-getter" with "unbounded energy." "Has a lot of potential to come up the line." "Most people look at her and say she has a future."
• Sen. John Thune (R) CoS Matt Zabel (R): He's been mentioned as a House candidate, but right now "he's got his wagon hooked to the fastest rising star perhaps in the Republican party nationwide, and that won't hurt him a bit."
• State Sen Min Leader Garry Moore (D): He's termed out of the Sen, but is running for the House and is seen as an early candidate for leadership.
• Ex-State Rep. Scott Heidepriem (D): An atty, the former GOPer is now running for State Sen as a Dem. He's "very well-respected" and "has aspriations to run for higher office."
• Atty Nancy Turbak (D): "The most successful trial lawyer" in SD. Running for State Sen. "I could easily see her as a candidate for" Congress or Gov.

Posted at 11:05 AM

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