June 30, 2006
The Weekender: Act Blue Gets It Together
Welcome to the Weekender. It's a new On Call experiment. Each Friday, we'll end the day with a longish post that probes an idea or a contested race or a political development that fascinates us. Last week, tackled the conventional wisdom that Sen. George Allen's 2008 hopes will be bruised by his competitive race and provide eight other reasons why Allen/Webb is this cycle's Daschle/Thune. This week, we're looking at two models for left-wing internet donations, and why you should watch out for their fundraising prowess and potential.
1. ActBlue.com. Without bells, whistles or massive e-mail campaigns, the site's decor well underestimates its influence. Since ActBlue's inception about two years ago, the site has raised more than $6 million dollars for Dem candidates. The Web site's interface is so simple and user friendly, major PACs and congressional campaigns (about 60 of them) are using it to process ALL of their donations. Users can create their own pages, from Netroots candidates (2,861 donors giving $221,851 to 12 hand-picked candidates) to Bloggers for Pete Ashdown (five donors giving $157).
From a campaign viewpoint, ActBlue essentially outsources much of the fundraising labor to a willing team. But the larger picture includes the blogosphere: So far, bloggers regularly link to site to put their money where there mouths -- er, keyboards -- are. The evidence is in total dollar amounts: ActBlue's biggest earners are Paul Hacket ($658K for combined Senate and House runs) and Ned Lamont ($233K so far this cycle). [SHIRA R. TOEPLITZ]
2. Much better known that the former, Moveon.org has only grown its fundraising prowess since its famous Bush in 30 seconds contest. They have raised $14M total for this cycle, but like ActBlue, the MoveOn.org PAC actually doesn't give much directly to candidates. Instead they send out a call to action, process the donors' credit cards and the funds head to the campaign's account. The organization has also run $2M in TV ads for candidates in targeted districts, said MoveOn.org executive director Eli Pariser.
#Both sites represent two models of Democratic action. And since money is the most effective way of showing support for candidates, we think the difference shows a rift among Dems on the whole. ActBlue's organization is a bottom-up model, i.e. there are no endorsed candidates. Arguably this is one of the most honest pictures of how much money -- and gravitas -- a Democrat holds with an internet audience, whether that be the bloggers or wired middle-class families. On the other hand, Moveon.org has a mobilized staff with organized campaigns and initiatives. It has a faithful email list of millions on which it calls to donate to its endorsed candidates. Moveon.org represents more of a top-down model for lefty organizations.
#Check out who's raking it in via these sites. Actblue mobilized for Hackett, Lamont, Francine Busby and Ciro Rodriguez. Moveon.org brought in the most cash for Robert Byrd and LaMont. If you look at the chart comparison below, Moveon.org has donated more to relatively more moderate candidates, such as Byrd and Nelson. But without an endorsement process, internet donations surged for Hackett, with Busy and Rodriguez far behind. Predictably, LaMont remains the blogosphere's cash baby on both sites.
Candidate ActBLUE** Moveon.org
Busby (CA) $104,102 $124,620
Rodriguez (TX) $141,990 $163,643
Lampson (TX) $ 4,369 $164,000
Hackett (OH: S and H) $ 658,597 $ 177,400
Byrd (WV) $8,570 $832,500
Nelson (FL) $77,854 $ 153,000
Casey (PA) $9,399 $168,000
LaMont (CT) $233,244 $243,000*
Farrell (CT) $2,770 $85,000*
Murphy (PA) $21,435 $84,000*
Sanders (VT) $9,566 $14,000*
*At post time, Moveon.org was still counting funds for these candidates. [SHIRA TOEPLITZ]
Posted 06.30.06 05:00 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack
The Hoosiers' Willie Horton?
If the NRCC has its way, child molester Matthew Long would be the Hoosier version of Willie Horton. He's now the poster boy in new TV ads against Vanderburgh County Sheriff Brad Ellsworth (D) in IN 08.
During Ellsworth's trip to DC earlier this month, Long was mistakenly released from prison and is still on the loose. The story's getting big play in the Evansville media market, and Rep. John Hostettler (R) said he'll bring up the issue on the trail.
Ellsworth aired a response ad criticizing Hostettler's voting record and touting his own credentials. But he hasn't commented directly on the Long case.
The controversy expedited the NRCC's funding of this race. Usually, the cmte doesn't make such decisions until after Labor Day. And Hostettler's refusal to fundraise always puts him at an early disadvantage. But Ellsworth gave them an opening to hit early and often.
Will elections be decided at the local or nat'l level? If nat'l issues dominate, Dems have a fighting chance with Ellsworth. But if this local issue draws traction, the sheriff may have an uphill battle. [JOSH KRAUSHAAR]
UPDATE: Long was re-arrested on Tuesday night, per this report from WFIE-TV.
Posted 06.30.06 02:45 PM | Comments (1)
The Story Behind The Haircut..Er...Picture
It was the morning of.March 30, 1981; Rudy Giuliani met with President Reagan to discuss the young prosecutor''s upcoming Senate confirmation vote that would make him associate attorney general.
A few hours after this picture was taken, John Hinckley shot Reagan in the chest at the Washington Hilton.
Giuliani was tasked by the attorney general with safeguarding Hinckley in custody.
As Giuliani told Robert George,
"We had to get (Hinckley) arraigned within a reasonable period of time," Giuliani says. "Although this was a crime of worldwide significance, it still had to be treated like any other crime."Posted 06.30.06 02:15 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack
Since Last Call's On Hiatus Today
We bring you this very special Shot and Chaser, courtesy of reader John Schachter
SHOT...
"It was not always a given that the United States and America would have a close relationship." -- George W. Bush, 6/29 (Whitehouse.gov).
...CHASER
"Today, under George W. Bush, there are two Americas, not one.” John Edwards (12/29/03)
Posted 06.30.06 01:30 PM | Comments (0)
EXTRA: Our End-Of-The-Half-Year Spotlight
The Extended Play version, with a bit more analysis as to just why the first 6 of '06 have been so good to one '08er.
SPOTLIGHT
Benchmark Friday
It's the end of the 6th month of '06. A great time to create an artificial benchmark about WH '08! Think back to the start of '06 and ask yourself who has....
-- Bettered: McCain (weak frontrunner to a confident one); Huckabee (media's favorite IA dark horse); Kerry (messaging entire party on Iraq now); Edwards (has he snatched "outsider" tag from Warner? IA standing is big).
-- Stagnated: Giuliani (back on the scene, but yet to answer the "base" question); Bayh (fear the turtle); Warner (buzz candidate who became the cocktail party candidate); Frist (colleagues still skeptical, but mistakes are fewer); Feingold (alone as liberal FAV but is he only a 1-issue candidate?)
-- Stepped Back: Clinton (public war boos were bound to happen; when the Obama whispers stop, you'll know she's golden again). Gingrich (voluble but where's the belly fire and influence?); Allen (insiders now have doubts, he can't go to IA anymore, but if he beats Webb, he's right back in).
-- And who had the best six months? Mitt Romney, incredibly, now an "outsider" who has distanced himself from his MA pedigree.
To say that no other WH ‘08’er had a better 6 months than Romney would assume that there was another politician in America who saw his stock rise as much as the MA gov in the first half of ’06.
--A governor (outsider) in a GOP field dominated by Senators (insiders), Romney engineered a bipartisan healthcare solution that won front-page notice from the WSJ, WP and NYT – on the same day. The bill later drew favorable reviews from the likes of Yepsen, Brownstein and Alter – on the same day. Not even McCain got that sort of MSM love this year.
--A New Englander by way of Michigan, Romney came into Memphis for the SRLC and stole the headlines with an unexpected second-place finish in the straw poll, besting two Southerners and the primary’s putative front-runner
--A lame-duck RGA chair with a national fundraising base, Romney has spent more combined time in IA, NH, SC and MI than any other ‘08’er, planting staff, seeding candidates and earning chits along the way in all four early-nominating states.
To be sure, pitfalls await Romney on his Road to the WH (Mormonism, Yankeeism and Globe’ism, among them), but if his next 6 months are like the last, he goes into ’07 at or close to the top of the field.
Posted 06.30.06 01:06 PM | Comments (1)
Update On The Iowa Voter Lists
What does the Iowa VAN list have that other lists don't? It's simple -- the VAN is the only place to buy the coveted list of '04 Iowa caucus attendees.
The $100K price tag for 19 months of access strikes some potential '08 Dem campaigns as a bit too expensive. So one possibility that's making the rounds: band together and try to negotiate a lower price for the VAN.
For Dems, the second-most valuable list might be in possession of the South Carolina Democratic Party. The SC Dems paid a DC-based data firm to enter in approximately 300K Dems from the '04 primary voter roles. You can't buy those IDs from the state elections commission.
In '03, the SC Dems charged $25 to $35K for the data; that represented about one fifth of the party's '03 fundraising.
Posted 06.30.06 12:33 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
A Red State In The Town Hall
The summer of '06 may known in the conservative blogosphere as the Great Sorting Out.
On Independence Day, Townhall.com relaunches.
One consultant working for them writes in an e-mail that the new Townhall will be "an entirely different type of site that gives bloggers a radio voice and is completely geared at turning listeners and Internet junkies into activists, much like a campaign. In fact, they are focusing a lot of activity at the elections and the presidential primaries. They even hired the Bush-Cheney ’04 Internet campaign director to create, launch and run the site."
As we first reported in, that man is Chuck DeFeo.
And Redstate is on the verge of a renaissance, too. Erick Woods-Erickson, a young Georgia lawyer, wrote friends this week that he'll be the new CEO of RedState, Inc., and the managing editor of the Redstate.com website.
Wrote Erickson "We've got a few months worth of revenue in the bank and I'm hoping that through a lot of hard work and effort we'll be able to grow the brand and make it an effective conservative weapon in the blogosphere for the 2006 elections and then 2008."
The major Dem blogosphere sites -- MyDD, Kos, Atrios -- managed to find particular, personality-anchored niches.
Townhall and Redstate are more communal, at least at the top.Townhall is clearly the more corporate of the two and has a stable of well-known conservative personalities to attract eyeballs. But Redstate remains the site of choice (we think) for Congressional staffs.
If you like your internet politics red, it's an exciting time.
Posted 06.30.06 11:39 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Pool Report Paragraph Of The Morning
"Koizumi came in on a separate helicopter and pulled into place. The president began walking toward the chopper at 8:57, giving a hearty wave. FLOTUS stayed put. When Koizumi, in a styling bluish-grey suit and no tie came down the stairs, Bush greeted him with a handshake and a hand on the back. The two strode side by side, a Burning Love between them, across the tarmac (which was remarkable, given that just 60 years ago, their fathers had been at war, and now, through the power of freedom and democracy, their boys were going to pay tribute to a drug-addled sex addict who died on the toilet)." -- Joseph Curl
Posted 06.30.06 11:30 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
The Nationalized Election
Sometimes we're not convinced of something until we see the fact smack us in the face via a poll. The latest Diageo/Hotline poll does that on the question of whether voters view '06 as a chance to "send a message."
-- 84% of regis. voters agreed (54% strongly) that they would use their vote for Congress, in part, to "[send] a message to the country's current leadership." The numbers were consistent across party lines. We also found that a plurality of voters said their candidate choice would be based on that person's nat'l positions.
-- So do voters' nationalized attitudes automatically help Dems? Not necessarily. While Dems continue to lead in the various ways we ask the generic ballot question, their lead has diminished. And the voters don't yet believe Dems can win. By a 43-40 margin, voters expect the GOP to hold control of Congress (that 43% includes 30% of Dems).
-- Still there's more good news for Dems in this poll than GOPers. 60% still see the country on the wrong track (though that's actually an improvement from 5/06); just 30% approve of Congress' job; and Dems answer more emphatically on their interest in the '06 elections as compared to GOPers.
Posted 06.30.06 11:00 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
HRH Extra: Oh Henrys!
The Supreme Court's redistricting decision won't likely affect the partisan makeup of the next Congress, but could cause heartburn for Reps. Henry Bonilla (R-TX 23) and Henry Cuellar (D-TX 28).
The ramifications largely depend on who is responsible for the new redistricting. If the GOP-state legislature is tasked with redrawing the lines, Bonilla and Cuellar should be in fine shape. But both incumbents are concerned that Cuellar's Dem, Latino base of Webb Co. could be shifted to Bonilla's CD.
Cuellar may have the most to lose. His seat would be jeopardized if he loses Webb. And if the courts declare another round of TX primaries, he could face a third challenge against ex-Rep. Ciro Rodriguez, or the more highly-regarded state Rep. Richard Raymond.
Still, the picture is far from clear. And Cuellar isn't taking anything for granted, with six fundraisers scheduled within the next 4 months. But while the decision may have largely kept the map intact, it's created a whole new slew of questions for incumbents in southwest TX. [JOSH KRAUSHAAR]
Posted 06.30.06 09:04 AM | Comments (0)
Hotline After Dark -- Day Before Long Weekend Edition
Our favorite Chicago station (WGN) showed our favorite Chicago movie ("Ferris Bueller's Day Off"). On cable, pundits tried to be as clever:
Most of the talk last night focused on the SCOTUS ruling regarding Guantanamo:
CNN's Henry: "A slap in the face for President Bush from a conservative-leaning Supreme Court" ("Situation Room," 6/29).
CNN's Greenfield: "The decision's real significance lies in how unusual it is. Throughout our history the court has rarely limited what a president tries to do in war time" ("Situation Room," 6/29).
FNC's Baier: "Senior administration officials emphasized all options are on the table" ("Special Report," 6/29).
WH comm. dir. Nicolle Wallace: "The president isn't dealing with prisoners the way he wants to. ... He's dealing with dangerous enemies in a way that will make sure that we, here in the United States of America, are safe and protected from them" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 6/29).
FNC's O'Reilly: "Today's ruling is a political one but not a disaster. If Mr. Bush wants military justice at Gitmo, the Republican controlled House and Senate would most likely OK it. All he has to do is ask" ("O'Reilly Factor," 6/29).
Washington Post's Milbank: "Congress is eager, if not to give him a blank check, they'll let him fill in the amount. But it's very clear that this Congress wants a little bit of face saving. What they were objecting to is not so much the program itself, but that they weren't being consulted on" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 6/29).
FNC's Kondracke: "They did not order the closing down of Guantanamo. They did not say that since the Geneva Convention applies to these people and somehow the Geneva Convention has been not followed that these guys are now free" ("Special Report," 6/29).
DRIVING HOME BACKWARDS
Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) appeared on "O'Reilly Factor" last night. Here's how Bill O'Reilly started the interview:
O'Reilly: "All right, before we start the interview, I wish we could have done this in the campaign. You know, we kept waiting for you to come."
Kerry: "We should have done it. We should have."
O'Reilly: "You think so?"
Kerry: "I would love to have."
O'Reilly: "In hindsight, you should have."
Kerry: "No, I don't know why we didn't, but we should have."
And at the end of the pre-taped interview O'Reilly said: "I enjoyed the conversation. The senator is welcome here anytime. So now we're down to three: Jesse Jackson, Al Gore, Senator Hillary Clinton" (6/29). [EMILY GOODIN]
Posted 06.30.06 07:31 AM | Comments (0)
June 29, 2006
Send An SMS To The World
The next revolution might not be televised or computerized -- try mobilized. As of Thursday, there are two national political figures starting text messaging campaigns. Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA) and John Edwards are the first to implement it in a U.S. political campaign, although the technology has been talked about for years among D.C. technology circles.
John Edwards' One America Committee launched his text message campaign Thursday. Users can sign up on the Web site and give their name, email and cell phone number to receive periodic updates, according to a rep from Edwards' internet team. Their cell phone will receive a text message from "John" within a minute. Those who sign up for the service can expect to get a note from Edwards while he's on the road or a message to call their respective members of Congress about an important piece of legislation.
Santorum debuted his SMS campaign at a Women For Rick breakfast last week hosted by Mary Matalin, who demonstrated the new technology for the open event. Internet director Mindy Finn said they chose the all-female crowd because women tend to be busier and use their cell phones in more creative ways. Santorum's camp asked for cell phone numbers at the door, and later sent guests a thank-you message for attending. Starting in July, the campaign plans to use more of the technology with issue-based messages, such as a text on Santorum's work on immigration. They also have plans to integrate SMS into their direct mail and perhaps television and radio ads. As Finn put it, the opportunities are "limitness." [SHIRA TOEPLITZ]
Limitless, indeed. There's been talk about using the technology for Get Out The Vote, targeting supporters through their area code to go to a nearby rally and sending short movie clips to phones suited for video. The next big mobile step? Donating to campaigns via cell phone, which currently isn't without its legal and technological glitches.
But the new medium comes with its 128-character-limit concerns. Primarily, will voters reject a message from a politician that they must pay for on their cell phone bill? And will only core supporters, i.e. not undecided voters, sign up for the messages? The platform is more expensive than e-mail, both in startup and transaction fees. But most supporters of the platform look to international examples to prove otherwise. South Korean youth used the new technology during last year's election to gather for rallies under the conservative media's radar. And because U.S. campaigns like Edwards and Santorum are only beginning to experiment with it, it will be months -- perhaps even until '08 -- until it's determined to be an effective medium for political communication [SHIRA TOEPLITZ].
Posted 06.29.06 08:00 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
Ney's Staff Exodus
Roll Call reports this afternoon that Rep. Bob Ney's (R-OH) top 3 aides -- CoS Will Heaton, comm dir Brian Walsh, and LD Chris Otillio -- "are leaving, or have already left." Also, Ney aide Matt Parker was subpoenaed.
Here's what Ney said in a statement: "As with every office on Capitol Hill, where staffers work very long hours, there is inevitably turnover. In fact, according to a recent study by the Congressional Management Foundation, the average tenure for staff is a little over three years. What is notable however, is that all three of the staff members who will soon be leaving my office all worked for me for much longer than the average tenure and in fact my chief of staff, Will Heaton, has been with me for roughly five years. I wish them well as they pursue their individual career paths. '
"That being, I am very proud to say that I have recently promoted another longtime staffer and Harrison County native to be my new Legislative Director in Washington and another longtime staffer to take-over media relations responsibilities. In addition, we also recently hired two new staff members to fully staff the legislative operations arm of my office. Again, this is exactly what every single office on Capitol Hill does and in fact, what many others often have to do with more regularity than myself."
"Therefore any suggestion or implication that the office of Ohio's 18th Congressional District is operating at anything less than full speed ahead is baseless and without merit."
Posted 06.29.06 04:10 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
The Do-Something Congress?
House Min Leader Nancy Pelosi said at her weekly press conference today that congressional GOPers were leaving town for the recess with little but a laundry list of failures under their collective belts: failure to pass a budget, lobbying reform, immigration reform, an extension of the voting rights act, the 9/11 Commission's recomendations, identity protection for vets and an increase in the minimum wage. Quite a litany.
Not surprisingly, GOP leaders see things a bit differently. They say the first half of '06 has been chock-full of accomplishments.
And as a reminder, House Maj Leader John Boehner lays it all out in a "Promises Made, Promises Kept" memo that will be sent to members of the GOP conference later today.
Boehner breaks down what he views as their first-half achievements into four categories: the economy, nat'l security/border security, spending and everything else.
Full memo after the jump:
GOP Promises Made, GOP Promises Kept
On March 16, House Majority Leader John Boehner (R-OH) laid out House Republicans’ plans for an ambitious agenda aimed at bringing more prosperity and security to American families. In conjunction with Senate Republicans and President Bush, House Republicans have continued to fulfill those promises. Following is a list of GOP promises made, and GOP promises kept since the beginning of the second session of the 109th Congress.
Keeping Our Promise to Make America Prosperous
House Republicans have focused on bringing prosperity and security to American families and opening the door for even more Americans to take advantage of today’s new job opportunities and the ongoing Bush Economic Boom. While House Republicans act to spur economic growth, create more jobs, and build a better energy future, Capitol Hill Democrats continue to champion policies that would increase taxes, kill U.S. jobs, and endanger the very economic prosperity we’ve built. Following are some major House achievements thus far:
Tax Increase Prevention & Reconciliation Act Conference Report (H.R. 4297)
Permanent Estate Tax Relief Act (H.R. 5638)
College Access & Opportunity Act (H.R. 609)
Deep Ocean Energy Resources Act (H.R. 4761)
American-Made Energy and Good Jobs Act (H.R. 5429)
Refinery Permit Process Schedule Act (H.R. 5354)
The H-Prize Act (H.R. 5143)
Federal Energy Price Protection Act (H.R. 5253)
Communications Opportunity, Promotion, and Enhancement Act (H.R. 5252)
Broadcast Decency Enforcement Act (S. 193)Keeping Our Promise to Strengthen National Security & Border Security
House Republicans have built a strong national security record by supporting our troops fighting the Global War on Terror and honoring our veterans. In addition, strengthening our borders (as called for in the Border Protection, Antiterrorism, and Illegal Immigration Control Act, passed by the House in December 2005) and making our ports safer are important steps in bolstering our national security. While House Republicans act, Capitol Hill Democrats’ years of negligence in addressing the real safety and security needs of our country provide a very clear choice for the American people on security issues. Following are some major House achievements thus far:
Resolution to Prevail in the Global War on Terror & Achieve Victory in Iraq (H.Res. 612)
USA PATRIOT Improvement & Reauthorization Act (H.R. 3199)
Security and Accountability for Every (SAFE) Port Act (H.R. 4954)
FY 2007 Emergency Supplemental Appropriations Act Conference Report (H.R. 4939)
FY 2007 Intelligence Authorization Act (H.R. 5020)
FY 2007 National Defense Authorization Act (H.R. 5122)
FY 2007 Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act (H.R. 5441)
FY 2007 Department of Defense Appropriations Act (H.R. 5631)
Coast Guard & Maritime Transportation Act Conference Report (H.R. 889)
Iran Freedom Support Act (H.R. 282)
Respect for America’s Fallen Heroes Act (H.R. 5037)
Veterans’ Compensation Cost-of-Living Adjustment Act (H.R. 4843)
Veterans’ Housing Opportunity and Benefits Improvement Act (S. 1235)
Heroes Earned Retirement Opportunities Act (H.R. 1499)From the Office of the House Majority Leader John Boehner (R-OH)
Keeping Our Promise to Spend America’s Taxpayer Dollars Wisely
House Republicans have focused on ensuring that Congress spends America’s taxpayer dollars wisely, promoting fiscal responsibility, and restoring a sense of trust between the American people and their elected leaders. With strong economic growth that is creating thousands of new family-wage jobs, the choice for Americans is clear: move forward with a strong economy and exercise fiscal responsibility, or hand over control of spending to Capitol Hill Democrats who view the federal treasury as nothing more than a goldmine for new spending. Following are some major House achievements thus far:
Rejected $45.2 billion in New Democrat Spending Requests in FY 2007 Appropriations Bills
Terminated 95 programs for a Savings of Nearly $4 Billion
Reduced Funding for Member Projects by $7.8 Billion
FY 2007 Budget Resolution (H.Con.Res. 376)
“Rainy Day” Fund for Natural Disasters (H.Con.Res. 376)
Legislative Line Item Veto Act (H.R. 4890)
Lobbying Accountability and Transparency Act (H.R. 4975)
Grant Reform Bill (H.R. 5060)
FY 2007 Emergency Supplemental Appropriations Act Conference Report (H.R. 4939)
Annual Appropriations Bills – House has passed 10 of its 11 Appropriations BillsAdditional Legislative Successes in the House Thus Far
527 Reform Act (H.R. 513)
Forest Emergency Recovery and Research Act (H.R. 4200)
Mine Improvement and New Emergency Response Act (S. 2803)
Freedom to Display the American Flag Act (H.R. 42)
Children’s Safety and Violent Crime Reduction Act (H.R. 4472)
School Safety Acquiring Faculty Excellence Act (H.R. 4894)
Office of National Drug Control Policy Reauthorization Act (H.R. 2829)
Resolution Encouraging Seniors to Enroll in the Medicare Prescription Drug Benefit (H.Res. 802)
Senior Independence Act (H.R. 5293)
Health Centers Renewal Act (H.R. 5573)
Children’s Hospital GME Support Reauthorization Act (H.R. 5574)
Truth in Caller ID Act (H.R. 5126)
National Uniformity for Food Act (H.R. 4167)
Emergency and Disaster Assistance Fraud Penalty Enhancement Act (H.R. 4356)
Flood Insurance Reform and Modernization Act (H.R. 4973)Posted 06.29.06 03:43 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Want The Iowa Dem Voter File? Pony Up At Least $50K
The Hotline has obtained a memo circulated by the Iowa Democratic Party to "interested parties" -- the chieftains of the various '08 Dem presidential campaigns.
Mike Milligan, the IA Dem's exec dir., writes that "The Iowa Democratic Party is offering a special discount on the Voter Activation Network (VAN) to all potential Presidential Campaigns. This plan will allow campaigns to invest in the 2006 Coordinated Campaign while gaining early access to the most sophisticated voter file in the country."
VAN is proprietary term for a computer system run by a company with the same name.
For simplicity's sake, the VAN a term of art for "the voter database," itself a fancy phrase meaning "the voter file." VAN manages the list; the Iowa Dems own it. Campaigns can access the data and add their own identifications and codes.
The RNC's voter files are centralized in a single-vendor system called Voter Vault. Traditionally, Dem state party voter files have been treated like family jewels; State Dem parties get to choose their own vendors and they fiercely guard this prerogative. The lack of interoperability contributed in part to the DNC's problems with its national file in '04.
Between now and July 15, campaigns or PACs who pledge to give $50K to the party in 2006 and another $50K in 2007 get approximately 19 uninterrupted months of database access.
After July 15, access for the rest of 2006 costs $75K. And the estimated cost for 2007 is $85K -- that's because the data will appended with voter IDs from the '06 election.
It's a steep price -- the database access cost $65K for access in '02 -- but here's how VAN claims to have helped Dems in the past:
"With the help of the VAN, Senator Harkin turned back a strong challenge from Rep. Greg Ganske and Gov. Vilsack became the first Democratic governor reelected in Iowa in over a century. The following year, success continued as Voter Activation Network tools helped fuel an unexpected Democratic victory in the Boise mayor's race, helped win six targeted mayor's races in Indiana, and helped shift control of the Indianapolis City Council to Democrats for the first time ever."
"[In] the crucible of the 2004 election, the VAN successfully hosted 22 statewide voter files to meet the needs of America Coming together and 11 statewide parties. As Election Day approached, nearly 15,000 users were feeding more than a million IDs a week into VAN systems using several thousand Palm Pilots, hundreds of bar code scanners, easy text upload procedures, and old-fashioned data entry. While the outcome of the Presidential election was obviously disappointing, Democrats using VAN tools made important strides in legislative races in states as diverse as Idaho, Nevada, Iowa, Michigan, and Connecticut."
Then again, Bush won Iowa in '04... [MARC AMBINDER]
Posted 06.29.06 03:16 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
The End Of Interrogations?
Ex-DOJ atty Marty Lederman believes he's discovered a gem (or a poison pill, depending on your point of view) in the Hamdan ruling:
".... the Court held that Common Article 3 of Geneva aplies as a matter of treaty obligation to the conflict against Al Qaeda. That is the HUGE part of today's ruling. The commissions are the least of it. This basically resolves the debate about interrogation techniques, because Common Article 3 provides that detained persons "shall in all circumstances be treated humanely," and that "[t]o this end," certain specified acts "are and shall remain prohibited at any time and in any place whatsoever"—including "cruel treatment and torture," and "outrages upon personal dignity, in particular humiliating and degrading treatment." This standard, not limited to the restrictions of the due process clause, is much more restrictive than even the McCain Amendment".What say you, Harriet Miers, David Addington and Williams Haynes?
Posted 06.29.06 02:41 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Today's Blogometer: Capitol Capitalization Failure?
In the wake of SCOTUS's 6/28 decision on TX redistricting, the left was buzzing over opportunities to use Dem control over state legislatures to hobble GOP House delegations in key states (i.e. IL, NJ, and NM now, and possibly CA, PA, and CO after potential '06 wins).
Read the Hotline's
Blogometer
But even from their own ranks, lefties have questions about such efforts. Some wonder if constant re-districting is good for democracy, others look at the way Dems would have to draw lines to copy the GOP tactic (by shuffling base voters around) and wonders if Dem efforts to emulate the strategy would run afoul of the Voting Rights Act since the Dem base is often made up of minority voters.
Also, the Blogometer looks at progressive displeasure with Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) over religion, SEN and HOUSE round ups, and finally a quick jab at campaign finance reform.
Posted 06.29.06 01:48 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
House Race Hotline Extra: The Art Of War
The Iraq war looked, at one point, like a winning issue for Democrats in the 2006 midterm elections.
Polling has shown the public deeply pessimistic about the war and these perceptions have helped drive President Bush's approval ratings down. But when Democratic members facing tough re-election challenges had the opportunity to set a timetable for troops to withdraw from Iraq, nearly all of them demurred.Republicans kept their Conference in line, though most would have voted with the administration anyway. Yet the Democrats could not muster a unified opposition, and a sizable proportion of the Democratic defectors were those facing tough re-election bids. Take Rep. Leonard Boswell, D-Iowa, a perennial target. He voted to authorize the Iraq war in 2002, but later was one of only 125 members to vote against appropriating $87 billion for the effort in 2004. Earlier this month, Boswell, a Vietnam War veteran, voted with the Republican majority for a GOP resolution calling for victory in the war on terrorism and reaffirming the U.S. commitment to prevailing in Iraq. He joined 41 other Democrats. In November, Boswell will face a well-funded, experienced GOP challenger in Iowa state Senate President Jeff Lamberti.
Incumbents facing competitive races stand out from the list of Democrats who voted for the resolution. Some of them are defense hawks, like Reps. Jim Marshall, D-Ga., and John Spratt, D-S.C. Others represent Republican-leaning districts, like Reps. Melissa Bean, D-Ill., and Charlie Melancon, D-La. Rep. John Barrow, D-Ga., voted for the resolution. Although his district voted 54-46 percent for Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., for president in 2004, the new district Barrow is running in aft er redistricting would have only narrowly voted for Kerry, according to the Georgia Elections Division.[JOSH KRAUSHAAR]
So several of these Democratic incumbents are running in districts that Bush won in 2004. At the same time, several of the Democrats' targeted races are in similarly situated districts. And the war hasn't emerged as a major point of disagreement early on in many of these campaigns.
At a recent debate, Democrat Phil Kellam, the Virginia Beach commissioner of revenue who is challenging Rep. Thelma Drake, R-Va., largely agreed with Drake in opposing a timetable for the war in Iraq.
Former Democratic Rep. Ken Lucas, who is coming out of retirement to try to reclaim his old seat now held by Rep. Geoffrey Davis, R-Ky., voted for the initial Iraq war resolution and has defended his vote.Even Democrat Tammy Duckworth, a former Blackhawk helicopter pilot who lost both legs in Iraq, has barely mentioned the war during her campaign in her bid to succeed Rep. Henry Hyde, R-Ill. Her strategists say her biography speaks for itself.
The war is resonating as an issue primarily in the Northeast, particularly in Connecticut, in districts that are trending Democratic and where anti-war sentiment often prevails.
Rep. Rob Simmons, R-Conn., represents one of the most Democratic districts held by a Republican House member. Connecticut's 2nd District has a military presence with the Coast Guard Academy and a large percentage of blue-collar workers, many of whom work at General Dynamics' Electric Boat Company. Despite those demographics, voters in the district are sour on the war.
With this in mind, Simmons is going on the attack. He has invoked Democratic Sen. Joseph Lieberman's support of the war to drive a wedge between his opponent, former state Rep. Joe Courtney, and Lieberman. And Simmons began to distance himself from the Bush administration, when he declared on the House floor that "there's a limit to the amount of time and money and lives we're going to commit" to Iraq.
Rep. Christopher Shays, R-Conn., -- who represents the affluent, culturally liberal 1st District closer to New York City -- has taken a more hawkish approach. He has visited Iraq several times and has argued against a hasty withdrawal.
His Democratic opponent, Westport First Selectwoman Diane Farrell, has criticized his focus on Iraq, arguing it is coming at the expense of domestic issues. She has challenged him to a debate exclusively on Iraq, which he has so far declined. Farrell has said Shays has failed to provide oversight on the administration's war management.
If just one incumbent loses exclusively because of the Iraq war, it will likely be Shays. He is very much the Republican version of Lieberman. He represents an affluent anti-war constituency where The New York Times doubles as the local paper. He has taken a hawkish position on the war out of stubborn principle, not politics. Farrell won 48 percent of the vote against him in 2004 and she hopes that the dissatisfaction with the war will trump Shays' incumbency and experience.
Still, the war isn't a major issue in most campaigns -- at least not at this early stage. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee prefers to highlight the minimum wage and Social Security over an issue where the party is divided.
Meanwhile, Republicans are showing a newfound eagerness to invoke terrorism as a campaign issue. In 2002 and 2004, they were successful in framing the war and national security to their advantage. Will history repeat itself in 2006?
Posted 06.29.06 01:32 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
President Persona Non Grata?
President Bush got a much-needed reminder Tuesday that some folks do still like him, writes John Mercruio. Some Republicans, at least.
Armed with a strong endorsement from Bush, Rep. Chris Cannon, R-Utah, sailed to a surprisingly big primary win against John Jacob, a wealthy businessman who opposes the Bush-Cannon plan on illegal immigration. Jacob, who had previously blamed his campaign woes on the devil, said his defeat was Bush's fault; He said he couldn't overcome Bush's popularity. Those aren't words Bush hears too often these days. And in a district Bush carried 3-to-1 in 2004, Cannon's 14-point margin against a flawed candidate, while solid, is hardly reassuring. Indeed, Republicans this week are wrapping up their best month in months, enjoying good news on Iraq, ethics, immigration reform, the CIA leak investigation and, well, Iraq. But that doesn't mean they're ready to embrace a president whose poll numbers continue to hover below 40 percent. Indeed, four months before a midterm election that still stirs deep anxiety within GOP ranks, the question for many is no longer whether they'll distance themselves from Bush. It's how aggressively, and how far.Posted 06.29.06 12:47 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Thurgood Marshall, Jr. Joins Team Bayh
Senator Evan Bayh (D-IN) will announce today that Thurgood Marshall Jr.will become a senior adviser to Bayh's All America PAC. Marshall was cabinet secretrary for Preslident Clinton and a leg. affiars director for ex-VP Al Gore.
And yes -- he is the son of you know who.
Oh, and he is the brother of John Marshall, an ex-US Marshal and Virginia state trooper who many think has a bright political future. J. Marshall is in Gov. Tim Kaine's (D) cabinet, but was first appointed by the last VA gov; a fella who we hear also may be interested in '08.
Posted 06.29.06 11:14 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Feingold Exults At Hamdan Decision
Per a statement from Sen. Russ Feingold: "The Supreme Court’s decision concerning military commissions at Guantanamo Bay is a major rebuke to an Administration that has too often disregarded the rule of law. It is a testament to our system of government that the Supreme Court has stood up against this overreaching by the executive branch."
Posted 06.29.06 11:11 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
The Supremes Release Another Hit
CNN just alerted:
"The Supreme Court rules President Bush overstepped his authority with military war crimes trials for foreigners held at Guantanamo Bay in a case involving a former driver for Osama bin Laden."
First AP account is up
Posted 06.29.06 10:19 AM | Comments (0)
Rush To Judgment
Last night, FNC’s Bill O’Reilly discussed Rush Limbaugh being caught with a prescription in his doctor’s name. However, at no time in the discussion was the word Viagra mentioned. O’Reilly: “Limbaugh's shaving kit was searched in the Palm Beach airport, and a non-narcotic prescription found” (“O’Reilly Factor,” FNC, 6/28).
And from today’s “Page Six”, in their “Sightings” section: “Rush Limbaugh and Roger Ailes with much to discuss over dinner at Palm West” (Johnson, New York Post, 6/29).
Posted 06.29.06 09:18 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
It's Hard Out There For A Budget Hawk UPDATED
We hear that Phil Kerpen, the executive director of the Free Enterprise Fund, resigned last Friday.
Kerpsen sent this e-mail to friends:
For those who do care, I wanted to let you know that I've decided to leave the Free Enterprise Fund. I resigned on Friday, and though they've made overtures to lure me back, it's very unlikely that I'll return. Simply put, it was no longer the place I felt I could most effectively advance the pro-growth agendaKepsen was quickly replaced by Jim Terry, formerly CoS for Rep. John Campbell (R-CA).
The FEF, a 501 (c) 4 chaired by New York merchant banker Mallory Factor, open their doors in January of '05 by luring Stephen Moore from the Club for Growth, but Moore soon left to join the Wall Street Journal's editorial page. The group also nabbed iconic economist Arthur Laffer , now a member of their advisory board. Though the FEF has been successful at placing op-eds in the Wall Street Journal and at generating a bit of media attention, sympathizers aren't convinced the group is very effective.
Says one Republican who follows the internal politics: "The hard pro-growth guys can't sustain an agenda these days I think."
So where will socially libertarian pro-growth GOPers hang their hat?
These folks view the The Club for Growth with suspicion; they're seen by some as shills for the socially conservative business elite. The Club is more heavily involved in electoral politics,, having set itself up as a 527. Though the Club's campaign to rid the GOP of RINOs has played a part in creating tensions with other pro-growth Republicans, another cleavage is material. Whereas the FEF's main priorities today reflect the Wall Street orientation of its founders -- they're lobbying to reform Sarbanes-Oxley and to permanently repeal the estate/death tax -- the Club has been leading the charge against porkbarrel spending and waste. [MARC AMBINDER]
Update: the FEF's Todd Schorle sent this e-mail: "(1) Phil Kerpen was policy director and acting executive director, not executive director. 2) Phil was not replaced, but acting as the ED until someone was hired. 3) The FEF has hired Jim Terry, not Lee Terry. 4) Stephen Moore was not lured away from the Club he was pushed out and then started the FEF on his own.:"
Posted 06.29.06 08:49 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Hotline After Dark -- That Stench Is Mold
The Weather Channel was all about "Storm Stories" and cable news was all about the rain and floods in the East:
Gov. Ed Rendell (D-PA) appeared on "LKL," the "Situation Room," and "Live & Direct" to talk about the flooding.
Rendell: "One of the reasons that the mayor -- in consultation with us and FEMA -- decided to evacuate Wilkes-Barre ... was the lessons we learned from Katrina. ... In an abundance of caution, we didn't want to be caught in a Katrina-like situation where the access roads were cut off, the dike broke or the dike was surmounted and we had all our water and no way to get people" ("Live & Direct," MSNBC, 6/28).
More Rendell: "I have not gone up in a chopper, and Senator Santorum and Senator Specter and I are going to do that. But we're not going to do that until it's clear that we don't need our choppers for a search and rescue. Right now you don't want a bunch of politicians taking a chopper that can be used to save lives" ("LKL," CNN, 6/28).
Rendell: "I think the next 12 hours will be pretty crucial for Pennsylvania. Again, we're fighting in 15 counties. ... We're fighting serious problems now. But the next 12 to 14 hours will tell whether this is a full-scale disaster in Pennsylvania" ("Situation Room," CNN, 6/28).
TIME AFTER TIME
Rep. Peter King (R-NY) is still getting a lot of air time with his criticism of the New York Times.
King, on his resolution: "The purpose of the resolution is to put Congress on record being absolutely opposed to the leaks that were done, and also calling on the media to realize, you know, the damage that's caused to the United States, to our national security, by what I believe is a reckless disregard for homeland security and national security priorities" ("AC 360," CNN, 6/28).
King's response to a Times editorial criticizing him: "The chairman and ranking members of the Intelligence Committees in the House and Senate, the majority and the minority leaders, the speaker of the House, they all knew of this. And, to me, that is the type of oversight you need. You can't have all 535 members of the House and Senate knowing everything about every top secret operation that is going on. ... This is war. This isn't the same as a highway bill or a tax bill. This is life and death. And the New York Times should understand that" ("Situation Room," CNN, 6/28).
Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL): "I would advise the president to be cautious about beating up on the press for doing their job. ... My attitude is, let the press do its job and that, you know, in fact a lot of the problems that have arisen in terms of leaks and so forth have to do with just the extraordinary unwillingness of the president and this administration to commit itself to any kind of oversight, from anybody. I mean, it's not just that they don't want the New York Times leaking stories about their activities. They also don't want to share it with Congress" ("Hannity & Colmes," FNC, 6/28).
WH spokesperson Tony Snow: "There are a whole number of options right now, but the Bush administration, the president is not in a position to ask for investigations ... of the press, that simply would be inappropriate" ("O'Reilly Factor," FNC, 6/28).
PLAYING HARDBALL
MO SEN candidate Claire McCaskill (D) was on "Hardball" last night. Asked how she can beat an incumbent SEN, like Jim Talent (R): "You've got a senator who pretty much does whatever the president tells him to do. He votes with President Bush 94 percent of the time, and I must say, I'm not really happy with the Democrats either. I think my success will depend on whether or not Missourians feel comfortable that I can go out to Washington and be very independent and try to find some common sense, common ground" (MSNBC, 6/28).
And Tom DeLay was also on "Hardball." Asked if the GOP could keep control of the House: "I think they'll hold the House. It's too early to tell by how much. Obviously, we're a little behind in some districts around the country, but we've got a long way to go" (MSNBC, 6/28). [EMILY GOODIN]
Posted 06.29.06 07:27 AM | Comments (0)
Never A Dull Moment
Watching Democrats deal with the issue of Iraq is like watching the old movie, "Perils of Pauline," writes Charlie Cook.
"Just as everything looks great for them, they do something to get into a jam, and just when it looks like they are in serious trouble, something happens to get them out. It's almost exhausting to watch, but certainly not boring. I see many who refuse to believe any data that is critical or provides bad news for their side, but will then jump on the flimsiest poll numbers if they are favorable."
Read the rest of Cook's Off To The Races.
Posted 06.29.06 01:09 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
June 28, 2006
Hotline Senate Race Ratings: Senate Wars: A New Hope
Although no new races crack this month's top 10, we did shake things up a bit.
From the increased confidence we’re having in Lincoln Chafee’s primary campaign in Rhode Island, to the slightly improved climate benefitting the GOP’s best Senate challenger in the country (Mike McGavick), there’s reason for renewed optimism among Republicans.
Senate races play musical chairs as at least some GOPers have reason for optimism. Plus:
White House '08 · Governor races · House races
Posted 06.28.06 07:16 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
"Junior"
We could tolerate, barely, Sen Rick Santorum's (R-PA) incessant use of "Bobby Casey Jr" to refer to his Dem rival. And we've somehow stomached Sen. Bob Menendez's (D-NJ) love for the "Jr" in "Tom Kean Jr."
But now we are asking, begging, y'all working in the VA SEN race: spare us of the silly usage of "James H. Webb Jr" and "George Felix Allen Jr" when referring to your opponent.
Maybe you're irking the other guy a bit, but does this sort of sandbox strategy actually move any real votes?
C'mon, the horse has already been beaten plenty.
Posted 06.28.06 03:17 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
The Big Number: 3
It's one of the most exciting down-ballot races of the year, and it's tightening. Former Christian Coalition Exec. Dir. Ralph Reed (R), an architect of the GOP's revival in GA, has battled for months against State Sen. Casey Cagle (R). In a Strategic Vision poll out today, Reed leads Cagle by a hair -- 44%-41%.
Cagle's favs stand at a healthy 43%-20%, making him very well-known for a member of the legislature. Reed's unfavs exceeds his favs -- thank Abramoff and an aggresive GA press for that. But he's got the name, the machine in southern GA, the still-strong allegiance of social conservatives. He also boasts a healthy financial lead -- $1.45 million to Cagle's $880K, as of the latest report, filed on 3/31. Next reports are due 7/9. With just 20 days to go until the 7/18 primary, the race is deadlocked.
Posted 06.28.06 03:10 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
Hotline's Quote Of The Day
"People who live
in glass dude ranches should not question the patriotism of real soldiers." -- James H. Webb Jr. adviser Steve Jarding, on "George Felix Allen Jr.", release, 6/27
Posted 06.28.06 03:05 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Law Profs React To Redistricting Decision
First, though, ex-Rep. Martin Frost, who was bounced from his TX 24 seat:
"I am disappointed the Court allowed mid-decade redistricting solely for partisan gain to stand, and it saddens me that the Court did not protect the voting rights of African Americans and other minorities in North Texas. However, I am pleased that the Court recognized that the voting rights of South Texas Hispanics had been trampled upon."Unless otherwise specified, the exceprts are from posts to Rick Hasen's election law listserve.
"Partisan gerrymandering claims remain losers, at least for now. I am reminded of the old "Saturday Night Live" routine with "Weekend Update" anchor Chevy Chase reporting: "This just in. Generalissimo Francisco Franco is still dead." For the Democrats in the this case, and for plaintiffs for the foreseeable future, courts will accept partisan gerrymandering claims (because there is no majority holding them non-justiciable) and then reject the claims because there is no manageable standard. There is no majority still for either rejecting such claims outright, or for accepting them and providing a test for separating permissible and non-permissible consideration of party. Justice Kennedy remains undecided."NYU's Richard Pildes:
"Immediate practical consequences. Given that the Texas plan is illegal and elections are this fall, there are two options. The Governor could call the legislature into special session to draw a new plan for the fall elections. Ironically, it was through just such special sessions that the legislature created the plan held illegal today. Texas's legislators will thus end up devoting much of the decade to drawing and re-drawing and re-re-drawing a congressional districting plan. When a new plan is drawn to comply with the Court's decision, it is not clear at this stage how if at all the partisan makeup of the delegation might change. Alternatively, Texas could ask the federal court below to stay the decision and permit it to hold elections under the illegal plan.""With regard to partisan gerrymandering, the important news is that Justice Kennedy remains the swing vote and is still searching for a judicially manageable standard. It is also important that both Chief Justice Roberts and Justice Alito have deferred, for a future case, whether they believe that a judicially manageable standard exists to adjudicate constitutional claims of partisan gerrymandering. Today's decision says only, in effect, that there is no particular constitutional problem with mid-decade redistricting; all redistricting plans, whenever they occur during the 10 years between census-taking, will need to be evaluated according to the same constitutional standard, if a judicially manageable one can be found."GMU's Michael McDonald:
"It’s not clear that District 23 can be redrawn without substantively affecting District 28, perhaps even to the point of forcing Cuellar (D-28) and Bonilla (R-23) to run against one another. If that is the case, I suspect there will be a dramatic reorganization of the south part of Texas to make sure that the political damage is minimized. Worst case scenario for the Democrats: If the Republicans so choose, they could redistrict the entire state, while manipulating the difference between the 2000 census and current population growth to shore up any potentially vulnerable Republicans and try to upset some Democratic incumbents; not to neglect the Katrina victims in Houston that need to be considered. The Supreme Court has said re-redistricting is permissible and since Texas has to redistrict anyway, why not?"
Posted 06.28.06 01:55 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Frist Staffs Up In Iowa
Volunteer PAC, U.S. Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist’s leadership PAC, has hired Marcus Branstad to serve as Director of Field Operations in Iowa. Mr. Branstad will support Senator Frist’s mission of getting Republicans elected in 2006. He will organize Volunteer PAC’s efforts to ensure Iowa Republicans keep the majority and Jim Nussle is elected Governor. This is part of Senator Frist’s broader, nationwide effort of keeping the Republican majority and advancing the Republican agenda.Marcus is the youngest son of former IA Gov. Terry Branstad. He's a young pup, just out of college. His brother Eric Branstard works for the IA state GOP and has more experience... and is a get yet to be gotten.
Posted 06.28.06 01:21 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Everywhere He Wants To Be
It seems like Rudy Giuliani is popping up everywhere these days....
Posted 06.28.06 01:17 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Today's Blogometer: Deal Or No Deal
There are conflicting rumblings from the blogosphere on the immigration front today. Pres. Bush immigration plan supporter Rep. Chris Cannon's (R-UT 03) big win over businessman John Jacob (R) looks like a setback for pro-enforcement GOPers, but at the same time Sen. Arlen Specter (R-PA) has come out with statements many pro-enforcement bloggers interpret as movement away from Bush's "amnesty" plan.
Read the Hotline's
Blogometer
Those developments, plus reax from 6/27 primaries, WH'08 news, Election'06 round-up, and a possible GOP opportunity from the New York Times bank record revelation below.Posted 06.28.06 01:09 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
UT 03 Lesson: Incumbency Matters
National Journal's Richard Cohen provides us with exclusive post-primary analysis:
Last night's solid win by Rep. Chris Cannon keeps the good news rolling for the Republican Establishment. In the hard-fought and expensive contest in which challenger John Jacob spent about $400,000 -- nearly all of it his own money -- Cannon's 56% of the vote is virtually identical to his victory in 2004 against another hard-line opponent of illegal immigration. Perhaps more significantly for Cannon and GOP regulars, the turnout this time was about 58,000 votes, an increase of more than 10,000 from last time. That's also a boost over this year's scant primary turnout in other states such as Iowa and Virginia.
Cannon's win continues a clear-cut pattern for GOP primaries that have been contested on immigration: Hard-liner single-issue candidates continue to lose. That was the case in the CA 50 primary that Brian Bilbray won -- both for the special election in 4/06 and the 6/06 contest for a two-year term -- plus this month's primary challenge against Rep. David Dreier. And that was the case two years ago when several GOP incumbents faced stiff challenges, including Cannon, and Arizona Reps. Jeff Flake and Jim Kolbe. The lesson, according to NRCC spokesman Carl Forti: "If you look at history, single issue candidates are always hard pressed to win." That's worth keeping in mind in primary contests scheduled later this year, including the hard-fought AZ 08 GOP primary for Kolbe's open seat.
More broadly, the continuing success of incumbents is a message to Democratic strategists. In the words of Forti, again: "The more important thing here is that this reinforces the power of incumbency. It's very, very difficult to knock off an incumbent, be it in a primary or a general election." Keep in mind that no more than five GOP House incumbents have lost in any election since 1998. If House Democrats can't do better than that, they will remain in the minority. Last night's outcome also has an important legislative context. With Jacob falling short in his attacks on Cannon, a Judiciary Committee member whose support for an expanded guest-worker program has made him a leading GOP consensus-builder on immigration, the result ironically could strengthen House GOP leaders' hand in trying to cut a legislative deal later this year.
Look for Cannon to play an active role as they try to find a delicate balance among President Bush, hard-liners in their own Conference, and bipartisan Senate allies of a more accommodative approach for illegal aliens. Such a deal now seems more likely than just a week ago, when many observers were reading the death notice for immigration legislation. As Cannon said late last night, "We can solve this issue. Eighty per cent of the American people want a reasonable solution."
Posted 06.28.06 12:26 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
WH Shows Interest In Pence Plan
From a short e-mail sent around by Rep. Mike Pence's office:
PENCE MEETS WITH PRESIDENT AND VICE PRESIDENT ON IMMIGRATION REFORM
CONGRESSMAN INVITED TO WHITE HOUSE TO PRESENT PENCE PLAN IN 11 A.M. OVAL OFFICE MEETINGThe Pence plan (a) closes the border as best as possible (b) requires illegal immigrants to return home or to one of several "Ellis Island centers" in their home country to apply for work visas (c) sets up a guest worker program that favors those who began the process legally and (d) punishes employers who don't follow the law.
Posted 06.28.06 11:13 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
SCOTUS Case Update
Here's the full opinion.From SCOTUSBlog:
The Supreme Court, splintering widely, on Wednesday found an insufficient claim of partisan gerrymandering in the Texas congressional redistricting. It also rejected a challenge to mid-decade congressional redistricting. It did not rule on whether all partisan gerrymander claims are beyond judicial review. The Court is split on that issue, and the division remains. It found the state's new District 23 invalid under the federal Voting Rights Act. District 24 was upheld against a Voting Rights Act challenge.Here is a key paragraph in Justice Anthony M. Kennedy's plurality opinion in the Texas redistricting case: "In sum, we disagree with appellants' view that a legislature's decision to override a valid, court-drawn plan mid-decade is sufficiently suspect to give shape to a reliable standard for identifying unconstiutitonal political gerrymanders. We conclude that appellants have established no legally iimpermissible use of political classifications. For this reason, they state no claim on which relief may be granted for their statewide challenge."
Posted 06.28.06 10:39 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Casey Speaks!
SEN candidate Bob Casey (D-PA) is up with his first television ad.
[BOB CASEY] “I think the priorities in Washington have gotten completely turned around. I believe in a balanced budget … government should live within its means like any small business. It’s why these tax cuts on top of tax cuts for multi-millionaires just don’t make any sense. Or giving corporations tax breaks for sending jobs overseas. We need to reduce the deficit, lower interest rates, and invest in people again. We can do a lot better in Washington. And we will.”Posted 06.28.06 10:23 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Partisan Redistricting, Gerrymandering Legal
The US Supreme Court has endorsed the constitutionality of Texas's mid-decade redistricting and narrowly upheld the principle of partisan gerrymandering.
But SCOTUS threw out the lines circumscribing the 23rd congressional district. And it did not decide whether partisan redistricted maps are immune from legal review. Justice Kennedy wrote the plurality opinion.
More...
Posted 06.28.06 10:16 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Flag Amendment Nays
We don't usually do vote tallies here, but lots of you want to know who voted against the flag amendment.
Akaka, D-Hawaii, Bennett, R-Utah, Biden, D-Del., Bingaman, D-N.M., Boxer, D-Calif., Byrd, D-W.Va., Cantwell, D-Wash., Carper, D-Del., Chafee, R-R.I., Clinton, D-N.Y., Conrad, D-N.D., Dodd, D-Conn., Dorgan, D-N.D., Durbin, D-Ill., Feingold, D-Wis., Harkin, D-Iowa, Inouye, D-Hawaii, Jeffords, I-Vt., Kennedy, D-Mass., Kerry, D-Mass., Kohl, D-Wis., Lautenberg, D-N.J., Leahy, D-Vt., Levin, D-Mich., Lieberman, D-Conn., McConnell, R-Ky., Mikulski, D-Md., Murray, D-Wash., Obama, D-Ill., Pryor, D-Ark., Reed, D-R.I., Sarbanes, D-Md., Schumer, D-N.Y., Wyden, D-Ore.
Which led to this amusing article from Iowa. " Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., had planned to be in Clinton on Tuesday night, but stayed in Washington, D.C., for the debate on the flag-burning amendment."
Just in case you can't read between the lines of a local newspaper... the message is that Kerry eschewed an Iowa visit in order to stay in Washington to vote against the flag-burning amendment.
Posted 06.28.06 09:56 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Webb/Allen/Jarding/Wadhams: Part II
Here's the latest ripostes from the proxy war between the campaigns of Sen. George Allen (R-VA) and ex-Navy Secretary James Webb (D).
The frission started when Allen mgr Dick Wadhams, in a statement on Webb's oppositon to a flag burning amendment, said this: “Now that we know that James H. Webb, Jr. is following Kerry, Kennedy and Schumer in opposing the Flag Protection Amendment, maybe he will finally take a position on other ‘real issues’ such as immediate withdrawal from Iraq and immigration,” Wadhams said. “His positions change daily.”
Steve Jarding, a Webb adviser, responded with an angry missive here.
Wadhams's rebuttal.
And now, a statement from Jarding, e-mailed to us late last night.
"Dick Wadhams is a wounded dog and he is lashing out. First, he was reprimanded publicly for arrogantly and inexplicably berating a national independent pollster who simply stated his findings in a Wall Street Journal poll which showed Allen to be in big trouble against the independent and refreshing Jim Webb. Then Wadhams rudely, irreverently, and inexplicably attacked a highly decorated Vietnam veteran in Jim Webb for his position on freedom of speech. Dick Wadhams' tired old slash and burn politics strategy is now biting him in the behind because Jim Webb and his campaign will not roll over to this plastic, smoke and mirrors campaign tactic. And Wadhams wonders why people are calling for his head. And Dick, one more thing, I am too old and have been through too many wars to respond to your comments that I am acting "tough." This isn't about you or me, Dick. And it is no act. George Allen's rubber stamp of all things Bush and his eagerness to cave to special interests have hurt too many Americans, have shattered too many dreams and have squashed too many opportunities for tens of thousands of Virginians and millions of Americans. The truth is, Dick, this fight is bigger than either one of us. I trust the people of Virginia to send you that message."Wadhams this a.m. sent a memo to Virginia reporters and editors pointing out the exchange. Here's an excerpt -- the full memo is after the jump.
When it was reported yesterday morning that Webb opposed the amendment, we issued a press release pointing out he stood with those that supported him in the Democratic Primary, Senators John Kerry, Charles Schumer and Ted Kennedy, who also opposed the Flag Protection Amendment. From that, Webb’s political consultant hysterically extrapolated it was an “attack on Webb’s patriotism.” Huh? So now we know whenever we publicly ask Webb to take a position on an issue that is being debated and voted on in the U.S. Senate, we will be accused of “attacking Webb’s patriotism.” Whenever we contrast Senator Allen’s clear positions on the many issues affecting Virginia and the United States versus those of Webb we can anticipate they will resort to breathlessly accusing us of “attacking Webb’s patriotism.”
The real target here isn't necessarily Wadhams; it's Chris Lacivita, the Allen strategist who brought the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth to the national stage. LaCivita, like Webb, is a Marine.Webb's campaign is sending a message here: we won't be swift-boated, we won't dare let Allen get away with questioning our patriotism. Allen's campaign is also sending a message: we know what Jim Webb's buttons are, and we're gonna push them.
Here's Dick Wadhams' full memo to reporters:
Wednesday, June 28, 2006
To: Virginia Editors and Reporters
From: Dick Wadhams, Campaign Manager
Friends of George Allen
I wanted to make sure you saw last night’s diatribe from the Webb campaign. You can’t fully appreciate it until you actually see it and read it.
It’s the latest in a clear pattern of thuggish behavior by Webb and his campaign:
--Following a televised debate during the Democratic primary where Harris Miller raised questions about Webb’s erratic shifts from Democrat to Republican to Democrat to Republican to Democrat, Webb shouted at Miller to “Shut your mouth!”
--A flier attacking Harris Miller that was produced by the Webb campaign and that Webb acknowledged he saw before it was distributed, depicted a man with a hook nose and money spilling from his pockets, a characterization described as “replete with anti-Semitic stereotypes.” To make matters worse, the Webb campaign acknowledged cynically distributing it in only a selected part of Virginia.
As the Senate began debate on the Flag Protection Amendment this past Monday, we publicly asked Webb if he supported the amendment. As has been the case on so many issues in this campaign where Webb has been silent or has vacillated, Webb had not declared a position on the amendment.
When it was reported yesterday morning that Webb opposed the amendment, we issued a press release pointing out he stood with those that supported him in the Democratic Primary, Senators John Kerry, Charles Schumer and Ted Kennedy, who also opposed the Flag Protection Amendment.
From that, Webb’s political consultant hysterically extrapolated it was an “attack on Webb’s patriotism.” Huh?
So now we know whenever we publicly ask Webb to take a position on an issue that is being debated and voted on in the U.S. Senate, we will be accused of “attacking Webb’s patriotism.”
Whenever we contrast Senator Allen’s clear positions on the many issues affecting Virginia and the United States versus those of Webb we can anticipate they will resort to breathlessly accusing us of “attacking Webb’s patriotism.”
So please make sure you read the Webb diatribe and our press releases in their entirety. It will tell you everything you need to know about what kind of candidate and campaign are opposing Senator George Allen.
Posted 06.28.06 09:47 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
We Wonder...
Did Sen. Hillary Clinton have any Democrat in mind when she said:
People can talk all they want how they want to be a part of ending poverty, but...don't let people get away with nice words. Don't let them come and quote scripture.Hmm.
Which Democrat talked scripturally and glowingly about ending poverty recently?
Update: A Clinton adviser insists that the comments were directed at President Bush, and only at President Bush.
Posted 06.28.06 09:25 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
