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June 21, 2006

From The Hotline: New Jersey Senate

Sometimes, a Hotline story slips through the ampersam-mad publication system. Fortunately, On Call is here to pick it up.

Herewith: New Jersey.

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When In New Jersey, Do As The Romans Do?

Kean "had his back covered by an unlikely ally" 6/20 -- state Senate Pres./ex-Gov. Richard Codey (D). Kean had agreed to a debate with Menendez 6/26 at 8pm, but worried it would conflict with the day's legislative session. Upon receiving notice of his withdrawal from the debate, Menendez's campaign "quickly labeled him a 'coward'" (Delli Santi, AP, 6/20).

Codey, in a letter to Kean: "It has been brought to my attention that you have voiced significant concerns over a potential scheduling conflict" on 6/26. "Given the fact that NJN studios is within walking distance of the State House and I do not anticipate the Senate session extending well into the evening, I am more than willing to suspend any and all votes pertaining to the budget should they arise while you're attending the debate (release, 6/20).

Codey, asked about the letter: "It would say, 'Don't worry, Tommy. We're going to take care of you, buddy. [If the session ran late], either we will recess or just [chitchat] and make believe we're the Roman Senate. He won't miss any votes." Kean campaign press sec. Jill Hazelbaker: "If Sen. Codey guarantees that he will not miss votes, the debate's on" (Delli Santi, AP, 6/20). The two candidates are scheduled for a debate 6/25 in NYC, and "thanks to Codey, they are still scheduled to meet again" 6/26 (Burton, Philadelphia Inquirer, 6/21).


In defending Kean's move to miss the debate so he could vote on the state budget, Hazelbaker: "Somebody needs to stand up for New Jersey taxpayers." Menendez spokesperson Matthew Miller: "We expect it to go on Monday as both sides agreed. Tom Kean needs to show up to the debates he's already agreed to before he starts scheduling new ones he can cancel (AP, 6/20).


It Isn't Just About Kean And Menendez Anymore


The "main event" reads Menendez v. Kean. It's the "undercards" of NJ Gov. Jon Corzine (D) v. ex-Gov. Tom Kean (R) and Pres. Bush v. the Dem "machine" that have been "getting the most play in the early stages" of the race and "could ultimately help influence the outcome of the battle" between Menendez and Kean.


Kean Sr. is "still revered" in NJ, which is "rare" for a GOP these days, and Corzine is "on the outs with voters, partially because he abandoned a campaign pledge to not raise taxes." Quinnipiac Univ. prof. Clay Richards: "I think Kean Sr. will always be a part of the Kean Jr. vote. They're inseparable, especially among some Democrats who have crossed over the line to vote for the father and will cross to vote for the son. In terms of Corzine's impact on Menendez, I expect it to not be that great."

DSCC spokesperson Phil Singer: "There's no question that Bush is an albatross around Kean Jr.'s neck, and that is proven by how he goes out of his way to avoid being seen with Bush or anyone associated with him." NRSC spokesperson Dan Ronayne "said while the campaign is going to be about the younger Kean and Menendez, the reputation" of Kean Sr. "is an asset that is already paying dividends." Ronayne: "We're fortunate to have someone of Gov. Kean's stature and popularity in New Jersey on our side. When you think Gov. Kean, you think integrity, and I think the same applies to the son." Richards "believes voters will differentiate between what goes on in Trenton" and what happens in DC, and "therefore not punish Menendez for Corzine's perceived shortcomings." However, if Kean "doesn't impress voters as much as his father does," it'll be "that much more apparent because the bar was set so high to begin with" (Drucker, Roll Call, 6/21).



NEW JERSEY


Menendez Finally Up On Kean In GOP Poll



A Strategic Vision (R) poll; conducted 6/16-18; surveyed 800 LVs; margin of error +/- 3% (release, 6/21). Tested: Sen. Bob Menendez (D) and State Sen. Tom Kean (R). Party ID breakdown: 39%D, 28%R, 33%I/O.



General Election Matchup            Fav/Unfav      Now    5/14

             Now 5/14 4/9 3/10 2/8  Menendez     35%/19% 32%/15%

Menendez     38% 35%  32% 30%  28%  Kean         28 /18  25 /14

Kean         36  35   34  32   33

Other/undec  26  30   34  38   39


Posted at 02:12 PM

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