June 30, 2006
The Nationalized Election
Sometimes we're not convinced of something until we see the fact smack us in the face via a poll. The latest Diageo/Hotline poll does that on the question of whether voters view '06 as a chance to "send a message."
-- 84% of regis. voters agreed (54% strongly) that they would use their vote for Congress, in part, to "[send] a message to the country's current leadership." The numbers were consistent across party lines. We also found that a plurality of voters said their candidate choice would be based on that person's nat'l positions.
-- So do voters' nationalized attitudes automatically help Dems? Not necessarily. While Dems continue to lead in the various ways we ask the generic ballot question, their lead has diminished. And the voters don't yet believe Dems can win. By a 43-40 margin, voters expect the GOP to hold control of Congress (that 43% includes 30% of Dems).
-- Still there's more good news for Dems in this poll than GOPers. 60% still see the country on the wrong track (though that's actually an improvement from 5/06); just 30% approve of Congress' job; and Dems answer more emphatically on their interest in the '06 elections as compared to GOPers.
Posted at 11:00 AM
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