July 31, 2006
A Big Break For Harold Ford, Jr.
State Sen. John Ford (D), Rep. Harold Ford, Jr's (D) uncle, will stand trial on federal corruption charges in February, not October as originally planned.
AP has Sen. Ford's attorney saying that they need the additional time for discovery and denying any political motivation for the change. Whatever the reason, the new date removes the prospect of Rep. Ford competing for media attention with his indicted uncle during the final weeks of the election.
Such simultaneous coverage would've made it significantly easier for TN GOPers to play up the "Ford" and "Memphis" angles. The attacks will certainly still come, but the timing will not be what it could've been.
Posted 07.31.06 03:48 PM | Comments (24)
Overlooked: Lazy Sunday
Sunday, 7/30, marked the first time this year no potential WH '08er appeared on a Sunday show. (Unless, of course, Mitch McConnell has some pent-up ambition we don't know about.) The Hotline tracks the time candidates spend on national television -- every moment of it.Posted 07.31.06 02:38 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Vanity Fair: No Man Hurt Georgie. No Man!
Vanity Fair's Todd Purdum writes about the relationship between President G.H.W. Bush and G.W. Bush, concluding that the best way to understand them is to understand either one of them. There's not much news in the profile, but it does offer a counterintuitive interpretation of the President, who is generally described as rebelling from his father and reveling in his mother.
“As I have said over and over again, I support the policies of the President without question,” the elder Bush e-mails me from Kennebunkport, politely declining my request for an interview. “But, whenever I try to say that publicly, reporters look for even the hint of a nuance, for a way to drive a wedge between myself and the President. So I have decided, for now, it is better for me not to talk about it … not to you, not to anyone. It does amaze me that what no one seems to understand is that our relationship is about a loving relationship between a very proud father and his son.”
The notion is just a number: 84. That’s 41 plus 43. The whole that sums up the parts. The common characteristics that bind this father and this son, so diff erent in so many ways. The shared traits and talents that helped take them both, by such apparently diff erent approaches, to the pinnacle of power. And the shared shortcomings of substance and style—the stubbornness, the reticence, the ruthless expediency, qualities perhaps best summed up as Bushiness—that by this spring had helped bring the son to the same humiliating historical benchmarks of repudiation that the father had reached: a 31 percent approval rating and a public eager for leadership by anybody else.
For if the father and son’s private relationship with each other remains hard to penetrate, how father and son stand in relationship to each other seems increasingly apparent. They share one creed above all: Bushes know best.
“Forty-three is an absolute split of DNA between his mother and his father,” says Mark McKinnon, his veteran media adviser. “He gets his ‘pop’ from his mother, and his emotional core from his father.”
Distill 41 and 43 into 84 and you get an awkward amalgam of unblushing private enthusiasms and suppressed public impulses. Eighty-four’s code of the road is not so diff erent from Dorothy Walker’s: Never let ’em see you sweat; never show how much it hurts; never tell ’em what you really think, except in elliptical ways; remember that your mother raised you right...
Posted 07.31.06 01:55 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
House Race Hotline Update: Divide And Conquer
While Dems have gotten the lion's share of attention over their internal discord, there's division among GOPers on key midterm legislation as the House heads to recess.
Immigration: In the House, most GOPers are talking tough on the need for tighter border security. But there's a simmering debate over whether it's better to reach a resolution before the midterms or use the deadlock to rally conservative voters to the polls.
Minimum Wage: House GOP leaders are trying to tie a minimum wage increase to small businesses' ability to pool health insurance. Dems, not wanting to hand vulnerable GOPers an election-year victory, are whipping against including such a "poison pill." And some conservatives won't support any minimum wage increase. Losing their own vote would be a serious summer setback for GOPers.
Stem Cell Research: The vote to override Pres. Bush's veto largely split GOPers along regional lines. Most Northeastern and suburban members support expanding federal funding, while the majority of the caucus agrees with Bush.
But while the GOP caucus is looking fractured, do Dems have enough discipline to take advantage of the divide? [JOSH KRAUSHAAR]
Posted 07.31.06 01:40 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Today's Blogometer: CT SENometer
DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas wrote early 7/31: "Those of you who are tired about reading about the Connecticut Senate race might as well take Daily Kos off your reading list this week. This is the stretch run, and while I'll still talk about other things, expect A LOT of "CT-Sen" tags." The Blogometer has occasionally received criticism for being the "Kosometer" but with just over a week to go 'til primary day, we have to admit to thinking the exact same thing.
Virtually all of the big traffic lefty sites feature daily comments on the race, and once sporadic righty attention has also picked up the pace. The worst (best?) part is that the coming of 8/8 will probably not signal the end of CT SEN infatuation.
Win or lose the postmortems will continue for some time and if cable exec Ned Lamont (D) wins, the race could be the top Blogometer story straight through November.
Today's Blogometer
Posted 07.31.06 01:00 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
The Type Of Thing You'd Think Would Be In His Briefing Notes...
From the White House pool report chronicling President Bush's visit to the National Hurricane Center in Coral Gables, FL. Mr. Mayfield is Max Mayfield, the center's director.
"POTUS tried to show his knowledge of hurricane season by suggesting the height of it would begin next week and run through mid-September. The officials gently corrected him. “Actually, mid-October,’’ Mr. Mayfield said."
Another amusing moment:
He spoke with . . . a scientist who recently wrote a paper analyzing worldwide hurricane patterns and whether they are linked to global warming. The scientist – Christopher Landsea, a phd and the science and operations officer at the center – told POTUS there was ‘’not a consensus’’ linking the two. (Yes, a hurricane scientist named Landsea) POTUS replied, “There is a consensus you’re doing good work.”
Posted 07.31.06 11:55 AM | Comments (0)
Boehner Urges His Troops To Recognize Voter Anxiety
As they wrapped up summer's work on Saturday morning Majority Leader John Boehner (R-OH) left his Republican conference with some parting thoughts about the August recess.
Quoting legendary OSU football coach Woody Hayes, Boehner likens the past few months to a steady stream of "three yards and a cloud of dist." The grind has provided a "vital backstop" against "misguided Democrat policies."
But Americans, he acknowledges, are anxious.
Boehner: "Despite the continued growth of our economy, however, too many American families continue to feel anxiety about the high cost of living. Our economic engine is firing on all cylinders, but too many American families are still feeling the pinch of rising health care costs, high gas prices, steep college tuition rates, and uncertainty about their retirement savings."
"International threats" are also contributing.
So the GOP's mission in August is "to engage our constituents in a dialogue about their hopes and anxieties and our majority's efforts to address them."
More Boehner: "Massive challenges lie ahead for our nation, domestically and internationally - challenges that will require bold Republican leadership in the years ahead. These challenges will require us to throw deep. Our willingness to change the congressional earmarking practice is a glimpse of what our majority is capable of doing when we identify a big goal, and set out to achieve it - but only a glimpse. The true challenges before us are national and societal challenges; not merely institutional ones."
The full memo can be found after the jump.
M E M O
To: House Republican Members
From: Majority Leader Boehner
Date: July 29, 2006
Re: Making August Matter
Legendary Ohio State University football coach Woody Hayes is famous for describing his approach to offense as "three yards and a cloud of dust." His football teams won consistently by grinding it out, running the ball, gaining a few yards at a time, and ultimately putting the points on the board needed to win the game.
Maybe it's my just Buckeye bias talking, but I think it's a pretty fair analogy for the way in which House Republicans have gone about our work in recent months. We've worked hard to tackle the issues the American people care about. In uncertain times, we've provided steady leadership, pursuing an agenda that highlights the sharp contrast between our priorities and those of the liberal Democrat minority. We've provided a vital backstop against misguided Democrat policies that would make our nation less secure, shielding a growing economy against the higher taxes and billions in increased spending and regulation that would clog our economy if Democrats were calling the shots.
Despite the continued growth of our economy, however, too many American families continue to feel anxiety about the high cost of living. Our economic engine is firing on all cylinders, but too many American families are still feeling the pinch of rising health care costs, high gas prices, steep college tuition rates, and uncertainty about their retirement savings.
International threats are also contributing to the anxiety American families feel. Terrorists are waging a global war against freedom and free people. We've taken the fight to them in Iraq and Afghanistan. But the progress America has made through the sacrifices of the brave men and women of our armed forces has made them desperate. They're bent on destablizing democracies throughout the world. And they are more determined than ever to penetrate our leaking borders and carry out their murderous ambitions against innocent citizens on American soil.
Our mission in August is to engage our constituents in a dialogue about their hopes and anxieties and our majority's efforts to address them. As Conference Chairman Deborah Pryce has put it, we need to make August matter.
Massive challenges lie ahead for our nation, domestically and internationally - challenges that will require bold Republican leadership in the years ahead. These challenges will require us to throw deep. Our willingness to change the congressional earmarking practice is a glimpse of what our majority is capable of doing when we identify a big goal, and set out to achieve it - but only a glimpse. The true challenges before us are national and societal challenges; not merely institutional ones.
If we fail to engage our constituents this August, we run the risk of forfeiting our opportunity to address these challenges. Every American should know House Republicans are working for them to secure the border; strengthen national security; spend taxpayer dollars wisely; lower gasoline prices; and keep America prosperous. We need to use August to make sure they know.
While engaging your constituents and local media during the August district work period, there are a number of key points that are important.
1. Secure the Borders, Enforce the Law
Those observing the debate and political analysis over the border security and immigration reform issue will admit the political environment has shifted towards the House's position of border security first. The Reid-Kennedy bill crafted in the Senate with a majority of Senate Democrats is a troubling approach to the challenges we face as a nation on the issues of curbing illegal immigration and securing our borders against those who would do us harm.
The dynamics of the political debate have changed because House Republicans have diligently informed our constituents about the troubling provisions in the Reid-Kennedy bill. In August, we should take every opportunity to engage constituents and local media on several important points:
House Republicans are making progress. The hearings on the Reid-Kennedy bill are working and have strengthened our ability to enact a strong border security bill. Americans should know House Republicans want to send President Bush a strong bill that secures our borders and puts a premium on enforcing our immigration laws. They should also know we will not relent to Democrat proponents of the Reid-Kennedy approach that encourages open borders and weakens enforcement of our existing laws.
· House Democrats have absolutely no plan for securing the border. Americans should know just how absent House Democrats have been on the border security issue. The fact that Capitol Hill Democrats unveiled a feeble "agenda" that failed to even MENTION the issues of border security or immigration - two of the most important policy debates of the day - is a glaring example of just how disconnected they are from the American public. It's critical we inform our constituents and local media about how Democrats voted AGAINST common-sense legislation. Last year, for example, 152 Democrats voted against the REAL ID Act, which implemented needed driver's license reforms, making it more difficult for potential terrorists to obtain driver's licenses or state ID cards, and ensuring that states improve their data security.
2. Strengthen National Security
Recent world events underscore just how important it is to have elected leaders who have the strength and resolve to confront dangerous regimes and provide a national security policy framework that refuses to waver or equivocate. Capitol Hill Democrats have greeted these developments with nervous calls for retreat and hysterical proposals to negotiate directly with tyrannical dictators.
Americans should know just how clear the contrasts are between House Republicans and Capitol Hill Democrats on these issues. During a recent speech that addressed the most important issues facing our nation, I summed it up accordingly:
We are charged with guiding America's ideals and protecting American lives in an ever-changing world with dangerous threats that are forever adapting. What cannot change, what cannot waver and what will never falter is our determination to confront and defeat rogue regimes and radical movements that have set democracy and liberty square in their sights and targeted them for destruction.
As Republicans, we recognize this important charge. It's important to note what separates Republicans from Capitol Hill Democrats. Republicans recognize the threat and have constructed policies reliant on strength and purpose. Democrats have instead blundered towards an empty and cosmetic mindset that underscores a shared devotion to a weak and indecisive foreign policy forever queasy about America's role in the world.
American should know that while Republicans have pursued policies designed to aid efforts to track down and detain terror suspects, Democrats are instead more concerned with providing detained terrorists and enemy combatants with legal protections. An example would be the Democrat leadership's reaction to the recent Supreme Court decision concerning terror suspects and enemy combatants, where Democrat leaders insisted these individuals deserve legal protections provided by the freedom and democracy of an American justice system they were seeking to destroy. Your constituents will be appalled by such reasoning, and during the August work period you should take the opportunity to remind them of the work you've done in Congress to defeat such nonsensical policy ideas. Moreover, Democrats also:
Opposed missile defense and have repeatedly voted against its funding. This shows how unprepared they are to confront dangerous regimes like North Korea. Insistence on face-to-face talks underscores how easily they can be forced to abandon their position.
Voted "NO" to stopping leaks of classified information that damage national security, underscoring their weakness in confronting terrorism in a post-9/11 world.
3. Spend Taxpayer Dollars Wisely
Americans should know House Republicans have taken action to renew our party's traditional commitment to fiscal discipline. While House Democrats have proposed $45.2 billion in new spending, House Republicans have rejected all of it. We've passed a fiscally-responsible budget, approved the line-item veto, eliminated 95 wasteful government programs, and held the line on spending to the President's request. We also passed critical earmark reforms that will help us distinguish worthy projects from worthless pork. House Republicans will move to immediately adopt and implement comprehensive earmark reform rules independent of the ongoing lobbying and ethics reform discussions if a conference agreement is not ready when we return in September.
Americans should know Democrats opposed these efforts, because it's just one more example of how Democrats call for fiscal responsibility without ever offering a plan to achieve it. Democrats complain about budget deficits but don't want to eliminate any federal programs. They speak of spending restraint, and propose billion dollar new programs without paying for them. They talk about entitlement programs, but consistently avoid making the tough decisions it will require to save these benefits for our children and our grandchildren. And they call for fiscal discipline, yet propose tax hikes that punish working families.
It is clear Democrats simply want to raise taxes to pay for more spending. Republicans think Americans pay more than enough in taxes, whether it's property or sales taxes, state and federal income taxes, or the death tax. We want to restrain spending, not raid taxpayers' wallets.
4. Bolster American Energy, Lower Gas Prices
Americans should know about Democrats' chronically negligent opposition to every single measure we've put forth to address both long term and short term energy challenges.
Democrats voted "NO" on legislation to create thousands of new American jobs and provide environmentally safe energy production in the Outer Continental Shelf and ANWR.
Democrats voted "NO" on legislation that would encourage the development of new American refineries and limit the number of boutique fuels, both to help lower gas prices.
House Republicans have focused on common-sense energy solutions to help lower gas prices, create jobs for American workers, and reduce America's reliance on foreign sources of energy. In contrast, Capitol Hill Democrats have consistently opposed these common sense solutions and instead supported policies that drive up gasoline prices for working families.
5. Keep America Prosperous
Americans should know Republican policies have led to 34 consecutive months of job growth, low unemployment, and solid wage growth - and we are working to help lower Americans' cost of living.
Our tax relief package prevented a massive Democrat tax hike that would have hit working families, small businesses, and farmers the hardest. It has spurred the economy and, coupled with spending restraint, is helping drive down the deficit.
Our critical pension reforms will ensure workers' hard-earned pension benefits are there for them when they retire. These reforms will also save taxpayers from a multi-billion dollar bailout of the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC).
Our education reforms will help lower- and middle-income students have a shot at higher education, and will enable more Americans to take advantage of good job opportunities.
Our health care reforms will lower costs and make health insurance more affordable. We passed the health information technology bill championed by Reps. Nancy Johnson (R-CT) and Nathan Deal (R-GA) this week. We're fighting to enact small business health plans that have passed the House repeatedly. And the Medicare prescription drug benefit is lowering health care costs for seniors and taxpayers alike.
While House Republicans work to address the anxiety many American families continue to feel, it's clear Democrats have no plan to help lower the cost of living, keep taxes low, restrain spending, or help small businesses struggling with the rising costs of health insurance.
House Republicans also recognize the anxieties of American families are not solely economic in nature. Working with Rep. Mark Kirk (R-IL) and a coalition of moderate and conservative Republicans, we've put forth our GOP Suburban Agenda to directly address the priorities of our nation's suburban families. As we depart for the August recess, one Suburban Agenda bill is already law - the proposal by Rep. Jon Porter (R-NV) to give schools the ability to protect students against individuals with criminal backgrounds. The House has also passed the aforementioned Johnson-Deal health information technology bill, and legislation by Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick (R-PA) to help parents protect their children against online predators lurking on the Internet.
Similarly, House Republicans have taken action this summer to defend the values and freedoms many American families feel are under assault. Working with Rep. Joe Pitts (R-PA) and members of the Values Action Team, we've put forth the American Values Agenda, which has included votes on the Marriage Protection Amendment authored by Rep. Marilyn Musgrave (R-CO), the Pledge Protection Act authored by Rep. Todd Akin (R-MO), and the Freedom to Display the American Flag Act authored by Rep. Roscoe Bartlett (R-MD), which has been signed into law by President Bush. We also voted to crack down on Internet gambling by passing legislation co-authored by Reps. Bob Goodlatte (R-VA) and Jim Leach (R-IA).
While House Republicans work to address the anxiety many American families continue to feel, it's clear Democrats are adrift on virtually all of these matters. Case in point: when House Republicans launched our Suburban Agenda back in May, Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) dismissed it (curiously) as an agenda for the "privileged few" (Associated Press, 5/12/06). But since that time, scores of rank-and-file House Democrats have bucked their leadership and joined House Republicans in voting in favor of the Suburban Agenda bills.
Parting Thoughts: VISION MATTERS
These are the things Americans should know. As we finish our work and prepare to head back home to our constituents for the August district work period, we should recall the vision statement we united to develop and adopt together this year:
"We will promote the dignity and future of every individual by building a free society under a limited, accountable government that protects our liberty, security, and prosperity for a brighter American Dream."
Together, House Republicans stand for something. This is what we stand for. And you can't beat something with nothing. Let's go back to our districts, reconnect with our constituents, and make August matter.
Posted 07.31.06 10:28 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
The Political Week Ahead
The Senate will try to tackle the minimum wage increase coupled with the death/estate/inheritance tax cap and tax extenders.... and then pension reform and Defense Department appropriations. The House is in recess; Speaker Hastert plans five campaign appearances for Republicans.
We could learn today whether Tom DeLay loses his appeal to remove his name from the Texas 22 congressional ballot. We'll almost certainly know by mid-August.
August 3: Primary elections in Tennessee, where a crowded field in TN 01 will be winnowed and DC Republicans hope Bob Corker wins the Senate primary. Also worth watching: on 8/1, challenges to three creationism-supporting members on the Kansas state board of education.
The RNC's summer meeting kicks off in ('08 convention frontrunner city) Minneapolis on August 2. Journalists: at this moment, the political briefing by White House political director Sara Taylor is OPEN to the press.
A political week for POTUS. He starts off in Miami; speaks on the economy. He gets a physical on Tuesday. On Wednesday, he raises money for Ken Blackwell (no cameras!) in Ohio. He does some border tourin' on Thursday in Texas, and then RONS in Crawford for the weekend.
Next weekend, Gov. Mike Huckabee will be the belle of South Carolina. He's hosting the NGA meeting in Charleston (which will feature other governors like Pataki and Romney) and he'll manage to squeeze in a speech about defending heterosexual marriage.
Gov. George Pataki (R-NY) hits the trifecta next weekend: He stops in NH and IA, and attends the NGA conference in SC, and then he delivers what aides bill as a major speech on energy in DC.
Posted 07.31.06 10:03 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
The Hotline Daily Troika: SC, IA, NH
Posted 07.31.06 08:32 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
July 29, 2006
New York Times Endorses Lamont
In Adam Nagourney's story, news that the Times' editorial board has endorsed Ned Lamont.
[The New York Times, in an editorial published on Sunday, endorsed Mr. Lamont over Mr. Lieberman, arguing that the senator had offered the nation a “warped version of bipartisanship” in his dealings with President Bush on national security.]
Posted 07.29.06 01:42 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
The Saturday Brunch
WHAT'S BREWING
'06 GOVERNORS RACES
'06 SENATE RACES
'06 HOUSE RACES
CROSSING OUR TRANSOM
CHEW ON THIS....
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Posted 07.29.06 08:29 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
July 28, 2006
House Rushes To Pass Minimum Wage...Estate/Death Tax Relief
Following a 45-minute long members only meeting, the House Republican Conference has produced a catch-all minimum-wage/estate/death tax/'03 tax cut extender bill.
The minimum wage would be extended to $7.25 by June 1 of 2009.
The bill doesn't contain the sweetener for business -- association health plans.
It does include a tipped wage provision that allows some employers to apply tips to the higher wage due employees.
The exclusion for estates, btw, is $5M.
They're debating it tonight and maybe into tomorrow, along with that big pension reform bill we try to follow.
Posted 07.28.06 05:54 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
McGovern Creates Council Of Elders
Moving on the Gannett News Service...
McGovern organizes elders' council to offer adviceBy CHUCK RAASCH GNS Political Writer WASHINGTON - Saying Americans should listen more to their elders, former South Dakota Sen. George McGovern is forming a bipartisan council of seniors to offer advice on issues facing the country.
McGovern, 84, said his ``Council of Elders'' includes ex-senators and members of Congress, as well as professors, activists, ex-diplomats and former union officials. As of Friday, about three dozen people had signed on, and they span the ideological spectrum - from conservatives Rep. Henry Hyde, R-Ill., who is retiring from Congress, and ex-Sen. Alan Simpson of Wyoming to liberal ex-Sens. Thomas Eagleton of Missouri and John Culver of Iowa. Eagleton was briefly McGovern's vice presidential running mate in 1972 before it was disclosed Eagleton had undergone treatment for depression and exhaustion.
McGovern's Council of Elders will also include former Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara, who served during the Vietnam War, and former Secretary of the Interior Stewart Udall, who served under Presidents John F. Kennedy and Lyndon Johnson.
Civil rights activist and current Rep. John Lewis, D-Ga., has also agreed to join, McGovern said, as has feminist Gloria Steinem; retired Springfield, Mo., banker and author Todd Parnell; former United Autoworkers President Douglas Fraser; and Children's Defense Fund President Marian Wright Edelman.
Posted 07.28.06 03:21 PM | Comments (15) | TrackBack
Clinton Turns To An Old Friend For Microtargeting Advice
Sen. Hillary Clinton is looking for new ways to reach out to white working and middle class voters – especially those who live in exurbs and rural areas. According to several Democratic sources and others on the periphery of Clinton's team, an old, press-shy face is part of her the inner circle: marketing whiz Roy Spence, a Clinton family confidant since the 1970s.
"She trusts him," says another long-time friend of both Clintons. Spence was her consultant-of-choice in 1992 and informally advised with the White House during good times and bad.
Spence is the CEO of GSD and M, based in Austin, Texas and the creative genius behind ad campaigns for clients as diverse as BMW and Southwest Airlines. He's famous for helping Wal-Mart brand itself as a quality, low-cost powerhouse. He's also a specialist in marketing to Americans living in the heartland. As he told the New York Times, a brand must be "a sacred promise of what you stand for."
Spence did not answer e-mail and telephone messages left for him. He prefers to communicate his thoughts to Clinton via memo, although the two talk often. Clinton adviser Howard Wolfson said Clinton is focused on her Senate re-election campaign and that Spence is nothing more than a long-time family friend. [MARC AMBINDER]
Posted 07.28.06 03:00 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Hotline TV Gets Vulnerable
Dems need six seats to take back the Senate. Can they get it this year, or is it all a myth? New polls in TN and AZ don't help DSCC staffers sleep at night.
It's our mammoth battle for the House special, and we begin with the top endangered Dems around the country.
The special continues, and we're ranking the top endangered GOPers this year. DCCC, this is for you.
We have the deepest aloha for bandwagon jumping, which we do in HI, FL, OK and MN.
And, of course, the fastest 2 minutes in politics.
Posted 07.28.06 01:42 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Quote Of The Day
"We're for staying the course in Iraq and the war on terror."
-- Senate Maj. Leader Bill Frist on the GOP's '06 nat'l security message, "Hannity and Colmes," FNC, 7/27
Posted 07.28.06 12:32 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack
The Money Chase: Behind The Numbers
Figuring out which party has more resources to throw at the midterm elections is not as easy as adding up a few numbers.
Combining the $11.2 million in state party federal cash with the $10.6 million banked between the three GOP committees -- the RNC, NRCC and NRSC -- the Republican Party has about $22M more to spend on federal races. Also: groups like Progress for America and Americans for Job Security and the NRA will work at the margins mainly for Republicans. In fact, Republican 527s have outspent Democratic 527s by more than $9M this cycle.
However --
-- the Democratic House and Senate campaign committees are fundraising more successfully th
an ever before -- and that the cash on hand advatange will undoubtedly help them in October.
-- Labor money and foot soldiers, and assorted Dem 527s and 501(c)3 work will also boost the Democrats at the margin -- though in several of the most competitive House races, labor favors the Republican.
Looking at states, at federal races and at 527s, here are some other trends:
IN THE STATES
In April, the Hotline looked at cash on hand totals from all 100 state Democratic and Republican Parties. We found that the Republican parties had a net cash on hand advantage of $10.2 million. Today, the GOP state party advantage is approx. $11.2 million. Overall, Republican state parties outraised their Dem counterparts by 3 to 2.
However -- Democrats have a CoH advantage in several important states:
-- AZ, (approx. $400K)
-- IA (approx. $200K)
-- IL (approx. $1M)
--MN (approx $90K)
--MO (approx $50K)
--MT (approx $30K)
--NE (approx $100K)
Most of the Republican padding comes from states where the GOP has a lopsided advantage: FL, SD, MI, OH and PA. [MARC AMBINDER]
FEDERAL RACES
-- the GOP's small donor base, refined by decades of direct mail precision (and now, by microtargeting), is responsible for a high number of individual donors. The GOP, as an aggregate, relies on more individual donors than Democrats do.
--According to estimates, the RNC has outraised the DNC by nearly 87%. But then the DSCC and DCCC figures are added in, the party's advantage drops to 39 percent.
--In 29 of 46 competitive and potentially competitive House races (as designated by the Cook Report), the GOP candidate outraised the Dem candidate. In aggregate, GOP candidates in these 46 races have about $5M more on hand than the Democrats.
FEDERAL PACS
--The Center for Responsive Politics lists the top 25 federal PACs by amount raised. EMILY's List tops the list with $24M raised. The SEIU's PAC is next, which $24.7M raised. The largest GOP-leaning PAC ranks fifth -- the National Association of Realtors has raised $10.6M.
527 COMMITTEES
Ideology Receipts Spending (all figures approximate and in millionsLiberal 527s $63.0M $55.78
Conserv. 527s $57.21 $62.25
Top Five Liberal 527s
1. DGA $17.8M $14.8
2. EMILY's List $6.7 $5.44
non-federal
3. America Votes $4.8 $4.3
4. DLCC $4.8 $3.8
5. ACT NOW $4.5 $6.9
non-fed
Top Five Conservative 527s
1. RGA $25.88M $14.96
2. RSLC $11.67 $9.97
3. Club for $5.48 $5.96
Growth
4. PFA $4.67 $11.56
voter fund
5. College GOP $2.67 $7.40
Nat'l Cmte
BTW: he Center for Responsive Politics lists the top 25 federal PACs by amount raised. EMILY's List tops the list with $24M raised. The SEIU's PAC is next, which $24.7M raised. The largest GOP-leaning PAC ranks fifth -- the National Association of Realtors has raised $10.6M.
Posted 07.28.06 12:15 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
House Race Hotline Update: TN 01 Up For Grabs
The 13-candidate TN 01 GOP primary pits candidates with executive and legislative experience against a self-funding businessman who has blanketed the local airwaves with ads.
If experience matters, state Rep. David Davis is well-positioned, serving in the state House for 4 terms. There he's taken the lead on social issues, earning him strong support from pro-life groups.
Richard Venable is the mayor of Sullivan Co., the CD's population center. He's the only candidate from the county, and hopes to rack up his margin of victory there.
Businessman Richard Roberts has spent over $800K to boost his name ID. He's used much of it to air three slickly-produced TV ads highlighting his support of Pres. Bush's Iraq policy.
The wild card could be Johnson City vice-mayor/physician Phil Roe, who's touting himself as the outsider in the race. Roe spent the second-most money in the 2ndQ, and has a loyal, local following. If history's any measure, the GOP winner's a near-lock to hold the seat. No Dem has won here in over 100 years.
[JOSH KRAUSHAAR]
Posted 07.28.06 10:58 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Going Mobile
Mobile Voter, a San Francisco based not-for-profit, has started a voter registration drive program through text messaging called Txtvoter. The program, which is intended to register younger voters, was done with grants from GWU’s Young Voter Strategies and the Pew Charitable Trust. Oh yeah, and it’s pretty much free.
Here’s how it works: Mobile phone users can text the word “voter” to short code address 75444 and answer a series of questions via text message to complete the voter application process. A few weeks later, a completed voter registration form arrives at their doorstep. The user just needs to sign it, date it and send it back. Mobile Voter, for better or worse, keeps track of the mobile user every step of the way. If they see you haven’t finished the registration process, they will send you a text message reminder. They even have “planet coding” on the snail mail envelopes to see when your voter registration is sent back in the mail. The final step? Txtvoter will send you an email on Election Day remind you to vote and where your precinct location is.
Alright, so the cellular version of big brother might be watching -- and texting -- you. So here’s where a campaign’s new cheap voter registration drive can happen: The site’s newest feature lets users create accounts in which users can invite others to register to vote. For example, if you text the word “Hotline” to the short code, Txtvoter would take care of the registration, and we would be able to keep track of your progress. Txtvoter gives away recruits’ registration information (name, address and if they register online, email) for free if they’re going to individuals, c(3)’s and other non-profits who use the information in a non-partisan way. But political campaigns can get the same info for market price – around 10 cents a contact -- according to a company spokesperson.
It doesn’t seem like a practical solution for large-scale campaigns, for example anything statewide. But for races on the cheap, for example local and statehouse races, it’s a pretty good deal for a youth GOTV effort [SHIRA TOEPLITZ].
Posted 07.28.06 09:50 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
The Hotline Daily Troika: IA, NH and SC
Posted 07.28.06 09:06 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Hotline After Dark -- A Steele Trap
Coverage on the Middle East continues with most cable nets leading with the release of a new al Qaeda tape, in which second-in-command Ayman al-Zawahiri voices support for Hezbollah.
MSNBC's Unger: "Al Qaeda's call to arms. Osama's number two, Ayman al-Zawahiri's message from beyond, again. This time, urging Muslims to join the fight in Lebanon" ("Countdown," 7/27).
FNC's Hannity, on al-Zawahiri: "He's calling on Muslims around the world to wage a holy war against Israel. Now, his declaration of war came in the form of another videotape aired on the Arabic Al-Jazeera network, but this is hardly the first time Islamic radicals have called for war against the West" ("Hannity & Colmes," 7/27).
CNN's Bergen, on the relationship between al Qaeda and Hezbollah: "The leader of Hezbollah, Nasrallah, condemned the 9/11 attacks. So, you know, it's kind of a mixed picture. They have had an historical connection. There has been a distance in recent years. Now Ayman Al-Zawahri is extending this fig leaf" ("AC 360," 7/27).
STEELE-ING THE SHOW
There was also talk of MD SEN candidate Michael Steele (R) making critical remarks about Pres. Bush at a recent luncheon. Steele now he says he was only kidding, and that Bush is his "homeboy."
Washington Post's Milbank, on Steele: "I don't understand why he's backpedaling at all. It seemed to me he should have been on the record in the first place. Good politics when you're in the state of Maryland, very blue, Democratic state to diss the president and the party when they're down ... in the polls. So, I think if Steele was going to be more of a man of steel, he would have won more votes by just sticking to what he said."
More Milbank: "I think, basically he and a lot of others who want to follow the McCain strategy. When you look at him ... conservative across the board with Bush on stem cells, flag burning amendment, gay marriage amendment, but what he's doing is rhetorically differentiating himself, and that's what McCain does. And reporters love heretics. You like a guy when he's, sort of, sounds like he's being disloyal to his party. So, here he can be perfectly consistent on the ideology, but a lot of people, democratic voters, are going to say oh, I think he's one of us" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 7/27). [KATHERINE LEHR]
Posted 07.28.06 08:29 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
July 27, 2006
Burns Apologizes For Firefighter Criticism
The Montana Senator is apologizing for telling Montana firefighters that they've done a "poor job" at containing wildfires in the state.
Tonight, a Statement From Conrad Burns
“In retrospect, I wish I had chosen my words more carefully. My criticism of the way in which the fire was handled should not have been directed at those who were working hard to put it out. Without a doubt firefighters do the hard, tough job of battling one of Mother Nature’s toughest beasts. I have nothing but admiration for them and the work they do.
My frustration came from meeting with landowners who were critical of the way the fire was handled. Whatever the reason, I should have simply thanked those who worked hard to put out the fire.
I have since addressed my concerns to the proper officials about the way in which fires are handled. Please accept my apology for any hard feelings that my comments may have caused. I have the utmost respect for the job firefighters have done in Montana.”
Posted 07.27.06 09:31 PM | Comments (0)
A New Direction? (BTW: Check Out Kolbe On The GOP Leadership)
Is this cycle really going to be different than the last couple? Can Dems get -- and stay -- on the same page? Will simmering Republican divisions spill over onto the electoral map? A snapshot of the two parties offered via two Capitol Hill press conferences today would indicate the potential for all three.
House Min Leader Nancy Pelosi, Sen. Min Leader Harry Reid, DCCC chair Rahm Emanuel and DSCC chair Chuck Schumer led off, rolling out their six-pronged "New Directon" agenda for print reporters at the DSCC. Nat'l and homeland security, energy independence, health care, jobs, college access and retirement security will be on the tips of every Dem tounge going into the fall, these leaders said.
And though they used seemingly every other cliche besides this one, the singular message above and beyond these bullet points will be, "change vs. more of the same."
Dem candidates will be "agents of change" running against the GOP "status quo," said Emanuel. The American people are "tired of stay the course," observed Schumer. Dems will "chart a new direction," drove home Pelosi. Americans have "had enough of this president and this Congress," declared Reid.
Perhaps most important, Schumer pointed out where his candidates were actually embracing their "6 for '06" theme. Ford with Nat'l Security on the Dubai ports in TN, Casey with retirement security on opposing Social Security privatization in NJ, McCaskill with health care on supporting stem cell research in MO, etc.
Down 1st Street an hour later, four House GOPers gathered to trumpet five of their own policy priorities. Representing the moderate Republican Main St. Partnership group, Rep's Tom Davis (VA), Sherwood Boehlert (NY), Jim Kolbe (AZ) and Jim Gerlach (PA) outlined the "Promise For America." It includes such familiar items as nat'l and homeland security, energy independence, health care and retirement security, jobs, and education opportunities. The Main St. folks didn't have the exact same six agenda items as the Dems, however --- they included retirement security and health care in the same bullet.
Though their message was much the same as the Dems, Republicans revealed their own internal differences as soon as they took questions. Asked about a minimum wage increase, Davis was quick to point out that the four members were not in agreement on the topic. He and Kolbe, both opponents of the increase, said little, while Boehlert, a longtime champion of raising the wage, gleefully predicted it would pass in short order.
Even more contentious was the matter of immigration. "The real question of the session is whether we hype this issue and continue to hype this issue," said Kolbe, a lame duck from a border district. "What then, do we just dump it or do we get something done?" Told that he sounded as though such "hyping" would portend bad things politically, Kolbe quickly responded that he was not trying to say that, he was saying that. "There will be electoral consequences if we hype this issue as we have been and then don't follow up with action," he predicted. And it will be hard for voters "not to point fingers at" the party that controls the WH, House and Senate if there isn't action. Sensing an off-message moment, Boehlert interjected, "This group doesn't play the blame game." Kolbe seemed to get the hint when, asked if GOP leaders had the will to push through a bill, said, "I'll pass on that."
Gerlach, who has run ads in his Philadelphia-area district touting his opposition the guest worker language included in the Senate bill and backed by Pres Bush, didn't seem in any hurry to act on the issue, however. Asked if he would rather have a bill or an issue, Gerlach, facing perhaps the toughest race of any House incumbent in the country, said he wanted "a good bill," not a "bad bill." His constituents don't want a measure that rewards those who "jump ahead in line," he said. He'd like to "keep working the issue" and hopes "folks come together."
Four non-leadership House members promoting the agenda of just one wing of the party is much different, of course, than national party leaders outlining their campaign message.
However -- that Republicans are split on two very political issues even within this one wing bodes poorly. And that they are split so publicly, and beyond the confines of one press conference, even more so. [JONATHAN MARTIN and MARC AMBINDER]
Posted 07.27.06 05:20 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack
Hotline/Diageo Poll: Seeking John Generic
Pres. Bush dipped back into the 30s in this month's Diageo/Hotline poll. But that's just the beginning of the good news for cong. Dems, who jumped 7 points on the generic ballot and now lead GOPers by 16 points. That's the biggest margin this year in our poll.
The Dems' advantage shrinks considerably when voters are asked specifically whether the country would fare better under a Dem-controlled Congress. Two reasons for disparity? 1) Congress as a whole remains deeply disliked, so voters see little good coming from either party. 2) Voters, by almost 3-1, say the country's headed in the wrong direction; They're not exactly in an optimistic mood (although they feel much better about life in their own backyard).
One not-insignificant bright spot for GOPers: A big jump in their voters' level of interest in the 11/06 midterms, and an apparent drop in Dem interest. But the bottom line: It's a nat'l election, being fought on nat'l issues. Bush and Iraq will weigh heavily on voters' minds. And that alone presents an uphill climb for the GOP.
Conducted 7/20-23; surveyed 800 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.5% (release, 7/27). ^ denotes half sample. Party ID breakdown: 38%D, 35%R, 27%I/O.
Here's a graphical breakdown of all the results.
Posted 07.27.06 04:49 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Looks Like Romney Is Going To Iowa After All...
The Iowa Republican Party went ahead and sent out a formal press release about Gov. Mitt Romney's appearance at their Chairman's Dinner this weekend. Republicans say they have no reason to believe that Romney won't show up. His office refused to talk about his weekend schedule due to the ongoing Big Dig crisis. But it looks as if the decision has been made.
***MEDIA ADVISORY***EVENT DATE: Saturday, July 9th at 7:00 p.m.
Contact: Sarah Sauber,
GOVERNOR ROMNEY HEADLINES ANNUAL CHAIRMAN’S DINNER
The Republican Party of Iowa will hold their Annual Chairman’s Dinner at Crowne Plaza in Cedar Rapids on Saturday, July 29 at 7:00 p.m.
The keynote speaker will be Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and the Dinner Chair is Iowa Republican Federation of Women Chair, Cedar Rapids Businesswoman Kathy Pearson. Also speaking are Congressman Jim Leach and RPI Chairman Ray Hoffmann.
WHO: Gov. Mitt Romney
Ray Hoffmann, RPI ChairmanKathy Pearson, Dinner Chair
Congressman Jim Leach
WHAT: RPI Annual Chairman’s Dinner
WHEN: Saturday, July 28 at 7:00 p.m.
NOTE: Room available at 5:30 p.m. for pre-set
WHERE: Crowne Plaza
350 1st Ave. NE
Cedar Rapids, Iowa
###
Posted 07.27.06 04:41 PM | Comments (0)
Politiscope: A Rude Homecoming
Amid the deceptive silence of August, as candidates enter the crucial weeks leading up to Labor Day, writes John Mercurio, incumbents on both sides of the aisle will head home armed with talking points on a long list of issues.
Dozens of vulnerable incumbents in Congress -- most of them Republicans, but some Democrats -- have watched their re-election prospects dwindle this summer as they devoted themselves to the arduous task of legislating. That's about to change amid the deceptive silence of August, as candidates enter the crucial weeks leading up to Labor Day, at which point, if they haven't made a compelling case to voters, it may be too late to try.Incumbents are going home armed with talking points of legislative efforts Congress has undertaken this year. The list is long, even if the results are few: stem-cell research funding; illegal immigration; ethics; same-sex marriage; abortion rights; minimum wage; gas prices; global warming; taxes and the budget; Voting Rights Act; flag burning
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Posted 07.27.06 03:50 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Get Yer August Field Hearings. A Dollar A Dozen...
This means that GOP staffers will have to work in August...
House Republicans Announce August Field Hearings on Border SecurityNineteen Hearings to Occur in Twelve States
July 27, 2006
House Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-IL) and House Majority Leader John Boehner (R-OH) today announced the list of border security field hearings that will take place in the month of August. Eight House committees will be holding nineteen hearings that will take place in twelve different states.
The list of hearings and their topics is below
JUDICIARY COMMITTEE
San Diego, CA on August 2nd --- How do illegal immigrants impact the costs of healthcare, local education, and other social services, and would these costs increase under Reid-Kennedy immigration bill?
El Paso, TX on August 17th --- What is the financial impact of illegal immigration on communities along the U. S. border, and could these costs rise under the Reid-Kennedy bill? What is the impact on efforts to extend a border security fence under the Reid-Kennedy bill's requirements regarding consultation with the Mexican Government? Will efforts to limit illegal immigration be inhibited by the Reid-Kennedy bill's provisions relating to local law enforcement?
Concord, NH on August 24th --- How do illegal immigrants impact the costs of healthcare, local education, and other social services, and would these costs increase under Reid-Kennedy immigration bill? What is the societal impact of the Reid-Kennedy bill's grant of amnesty to millions of illegal immigrants?
Upstate New York on August 25th --- What are the current risks of terrorists, narcotics smugglers, and human traffickers infiltrating the United States, and what role do secure identification documents play in limiting those risks? Does the Reid-Kennedy bill undermine efforts to limit those risks?
Evansville, IN on August 29th --- How are U. S. workers impacted, and potentially displaced, by the Reid-Kennedy bill?
Dubuque, IA on September 1st --- Do the Reid-Kennedy bill's amnesty provisions repeat the mistakes of the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986?
ARMED SERVICES COMMITTEE
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI on August 1st --- What are the unique challenges for the Department of Defense in supporting border enforcement along the Northern Border?
Yuma Marine Corps Air Station, AZ on August 2nd --- What are the operational and training impacts of a porous border on military bases along the border?
HOMELAND SECURITY COMMITTEE
Bellingham, WA on August 8th --- What are the border infrastructure successes since passage of the REAL ID Act and the 9/11 Commission Implementation Act, and what challenges still exist?
Austin, TX on August 17th --- What are the criminal consequences of illegal immigration along the Southern Border?
SELECT COMMITTEE ON INTELLIGENCE
Sierra Vista, AZ on August 17th --- What is the state of technical surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities for monitoring the efforts of terrorists and drug cartels to infiltrate American soil through the Southern Border?
Grand Rapids, MI on August 23rd --- What is the threat to the United States from Islamic extremists who abuse the legal immigration system?
EDUCATION & THE WORKFORCE COMMITTEE
Plano, TX on July 31st --- Does the Reid-Kennedy bill weaken employment verification systems, making it easier for illegal immigrants to find work inside American borders?
Gainesville, GA on August 14th --- What is the impact on American workers and businesses of the Reid-Kennedy bill's provisions mandating Davis-Bacon wage rates for guest-workers?
ENERGY AND COMMERCE COMMITTEE
Nashville, TN on August 10th --- What is the impact of the Reid-Kennedy bill's amnesty provisions on the healthcare delivery system and for individual American taxpayers?
Dalton, GA on August 15th --- What is the impact of the Reid-Kennedy bill's amnesty provisions on the healthcare delivery system and for individual American taxpayers?
GOVERNMENT REFORM COMMITTEE
San Diego, CA on August 14th --- What is the impact on state and local governments, in terms of both societal costs such as policing and direct government costs such as health care and welfare benefits, of illegal immigration? Would the Reid-Kennedy bill impose huge unfunded mandates on state and local governments?
RESOURCES COMMITTEE
Santee, CA on August 5th --- What efforts need to be undertaken to prevent federal public lands from being harmed as they are used as a pathway for illegal immigration? Does the Reid-Kennedy bill compromise our federal lands?
Hamilton, MT on August 28th --- What efforts need to be undertaken to secure the federal lands along the Northern Border to prevent drug trafficking and other illegal activities? Could the Reid-Kennedy bill make these efforts more difficult?
Posted 07.27.06 11:28 AM | Comments (1)
This Sounds Interesting...
An e-mail from the Maryland Democratic Party:
Maryland Democratic Party Obtained Secret Email Between Steele Campaign and Washington Post That Discussed Quotes BEFORE Story Was Published
Steele LIED THROUGH HIS TEETH About “Off the Record” Interview; Whole Incident is Naked Political Stunt
TODAY Maryland Democratic Party Chair Terry Lierman to Release Secret Email at 2pm Press Conference in Baltimore
Who: Maryland Democratic Party Chair Terry Lierman
What: Lierman releases Steele campaign email to Washington Post revealing that Steele knew the “anonymous” story would be published and the campaign approved the use of those quotes in advance. This proves Steele and his campaign lied and that the whole incident has been a pre-meditated political stunt.
When: 2pm TODAY
Where: On top of Federal Hill, Federal Hill Park, Baltimore
Posted 07.27.06 11:02 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
The Hotline Daily Troika: NH, IA and SC
Posted 07.27.06 09:13 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Hotline After Dark -- Rome Was Built In 2 Days, Right?
ROME WASN'T BUILT IN ONE DAY
Talk of the situation in the Middle East continued on the cable nets, focusing on the international conference in Rome that Sec/State Condoleezza Rice attended.
NBC's Mitchell: "After struggling for hours, diplomats realized that there is going to be no immediate end to this conflict, no easy diplomatic resolution. They did agree there needs to be a ceasefire urgently, there needs to be an international military force to back that up, and to help support the Lebanese government to control the Hezbollah militia" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 7/26).
CNN's J. King: "They tried for the grand deal, if you will, trying to get it all done in one big day in Rome. ... That didn't work. So, now they have to do this piece by piece, day at a time. ... Very tough diplomacy ahead" ("AC 360," 7/26).
Wall Street Journal's N. King: "In a kind of contorted way, this is really a success for the Bush administration, because the last thing that they actually want is a cease-fire, so they're in this sort of Orwellian position of trying to enhance the humanitarian condition of the Lebanese people by pushing Israel to open up humanitarian corridors."
More N. King: "The real mystery in all of this, is how is Hezbollah going to be somehow or another taken out of the equation? And nobody is really coming up with an explanation for that" ("Tucker," MSNBC, 7/26).
Gov. Bill Richardson (D-NM), on the U.S.' refusal to talk with Syria: "We need to talk to Syria. Now, we have diplomatic relations with Syria. They control Hezbollah. And what the argument should be to Syria is, unless you control Hezbollah, you disarm them, or find a way that they're disarmed, there's going to be international sanctions on you. There's going to be a denial of visas, there's going to be freezing of your assets. But you can only do that by persuading an international coalitions to make it happen. So what this means is needed the most is a permanent American presence. ... You need constant diplomacy, you just can't do it in one meeting in Rome" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 7/26).
AT A LOSS FOR WORDS?
There was also analysis on Iraqi PM Jawad al-Maliki's address to Congress.
Newsweek's Fineman, on Maliki not voicing a pro-Israeli stance in his speech: "It was impossible for Maliki to do it, and that is one of the reasons George Bush ... has looked like a defeated man. I have never seen him look like this" ("Harball," MSNBC, 7/26).
FNC's Garrett, on the Dems' reaction: "Many Democrats today after this speech said look, there was a lot of lofty rhetoric. We appreciate the commitment to human rights, but where were the specifics on the ground to talk us and tell us about when the Iraqis are going to take control of this country and when U.S. troops can take control?" ("O'Reilly Factor," 7/26). [KATHERINE LEHR]
Posted 07.27.06 08:43 AM | Comments (0)
July 26, 2006
White House '08 Rankings: Summer Stasis?
The top 10 potential candidates are treading water in this round of rankings, with most still in the same spots they held in June.
But that doesn't mean the White House 2008 stage is quiet: Prospectives are busy making endorsements (John McCain and Rudy Giuliani), staying positive (John Edwards), going negative (Newt Gingrich), playing CEO (Mitt Romney) and speaking at a steak fry that's more important than it seems (Barack Obama).
These rankings are based on a number of factors, including: organization, money, buzz and polling. The two candidates in our two top spots are the candidates who are doing well in all four attributes.
White House '08 Rankings
Posted 07.26.06 04:12 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack