July 29, 2006
The Saturday Brunch
WHAT'S BREWING
The Hastert/Frist Midterm Gamble: At 1:30 in the morning, the House passed a minimum wage hike (to $7.25 by '09), set the the estate/death tax exemption at $5M (by 2015) and extended business tax cuts. Separately, the House passed bipartisan pension reform legislation. Sen. Chuck Grassley (R) feels "stabbed in the back" by the maneuvering -- especially the separation of tax extenders from the pension bill. Will enough Senate Dems climb on board? Will it survive even Republicans in the Senate?
So next week, the Senate will try to complete action on DoD appropriations (with all the attendant controversies), the minimum wage hike/death/estate tax changes/ tax cut extender -- as well as pension reform. Writes Jonathan Weisman: "Lawmakers from both parties said last night that the legislation could easily collapse in the Senate, underscoring Democratic contentions that Congress has become dysfunctional."
Folks are tired; Frist release mentions "unfair tax death;" Hastert release lists vote total as "XXX to XXX."
A "quiet" uptick in the total number of troops in Iraq? Or normal "rotation?"
A horrible crime in Seattle: "A Muslim man angry with Israel barged into the offices of the Jewish Federation of Greater Seattle Friday afternoon and opened fire with a handgun, killing one woman and wounding five others before surrendering to police."
John McCain and Hillary Clinton seem to like each other. Aside from the vodka-drinking contest, Anne Kornblut's article is notable for (a) "one of the guys" (b) "What happens in Estonia stays in Estonia" (c) the "stop" to inviting Clinton on McCain's trips.
A grand jury is investigating leaks of top-secret information.
It's another national grassroots organizing day for DNC. The GOP sees these events intelligence gathering exercises. Yes, it actually does help them to know how many canvassers are knocking on doors in Florida. Gov. Bill Richardson (D-NM) does the Dem radio response and gets to focus on foreign policy and the Dems' "New Direction."
Sen. John Kerry, in Iowa, is down on the calendar changes. We think. "I'm in favor of Iowa as the first caucus and New Hampshire as the first primary. Now, if they stick something in between that's a hybrid, I think that's their choice. But it makes the system more complicated and probably slightly less democratic."
Gov. Mitt Romney rejects an $8 minimum wage. Does his evolution on the issue add another notch to the "Mitt Clinton" belt?
Sen. Evan Bayh is working to create jobs. For Hoosiers. He's sponsoring job fairs. (But do the Hoosiers know he's spending his whole weekend in Northern California raising money?)
In the Carroll, Iowa Daily Times Herald, Sen. Tom Harkin on Sen. Barack Obama: ""I think Barack Obama has a lot of potential in many areas. He has the potential of being a great senator, being a unifier in terms of bringing better race relations to this county."
Novak: Gore in '08; the GOP wants to put Schumer on TV, and more.
'06 GOVERNORS RACES
FL: A state ethics commission concluded that because Tom Gallagher owned stock in insurance companies while regulating the industry, he might have broken the law. No evidence, though, that Gallagher abused his office. Meanwhile, arch-conservative lawmaker Dennis Baxley blasted Charlie Crist for suggesting that he's open to gay adoptions and thinks civil unions are "fine."
TX: Who's an "ASS" to Rick Perry's campaign?
CA: Bill Clinton will headline a dinner for Phil Angelides in Los Angeles on 8/1. Congenital pessimist Matthew Dowd is "fairly optimistic" about Schwarzenegger's positioning. (Don't you just miss those Dowd memos?)
The DVD of season three of the The Wire hits stores on 8/8. The plot involves a corrupt nexus between developers, dope dealers and politicians in Baltimore. Season Four premiers on HBO in the fall.
'06 SENATE RACES
CT: It's the first full day of Sen. Joe Lieberman's statewide bus tour.
MI: GOPer Mike Bouchard campaigns today and tomorrow with Ted Nugent, the Motor City Madman (Dude!). Keith Butler goes negative in a new ad: "The signs of a career politician, on the ballot 14 times in the last 19 years. He's taken hundreds of thousands of dollars from special interests. Even his campaign manager is a professional lobbyist."
Early voting ends in TN today.
'06 HOUSE RACES
A cool pork scorecard for all 435 districts from the Club for Growth.
OH 15: Example of House Dem spin on the minimum wage from challenger Mary Jo Kilroy(D): ""Deborah Pryce and the Bush Congress had many opportunities to increase the federal minimum wage, but rejected the increase seven times in the last five weeks. Only when faced with intense political pressure did Congressional Republicans allow a vote. Then, the Bush Congress also took advantage of the overwhelming popularity of the minimum wage increase to give tax breaks to millionaire estate owners."
TX 22: On Monday, an appeals court hears arguments about whether Tom DeLay should stay on the ballot.
PA 06: Rep. Jim Gerlach's campaign wants American Family Voices to apologize for stem cell ads.
CROSSING OUR TRANSOM
August 3: Primary elections in Tennessee, where a crowded field in TN 01 will be winnowed and Republicans hope Bob Corker wins the Senate primary. Also worth watching: on 8/1, challenges to three creationism-supporting members on the Kansas state board of education.
The RNC's summer meeting kicks off in ('08 convention frontrunner city) Minneapolis on August 2. Journalists: at this moment, the political briefing by White House political director Sara Taylor is OPEN to the press.
A political week for POTUS. He starts off in Miami; speaks on the economy. He gets a physical on Tuesday. On Wednesday, he raises money for Ken Blackwell (no cameras!) in Ohio. He does some border tourin' on Thursday in Texas, and then RONS in Crawford for the weekend.
Next weekend, Gov. Mike Huckabee will be the belle of South Carolina. He's hosting the NGA meeting in Charleston (which will feature other governors like Pataki and Romney) and he'll manage to squeeze in a speech about defending heterosexual marriage.
Gov. George Pataki (R-NY) hits the trifecta next weekend: He stops in NH and IA, and attends the NGA conference in SC, and then he delivers what aides bill as a major speech on energy in DC.
CHEW ON THIS....
Will voters remember the minimum wage hike? The economy is showing signs of a slow down... with more than two months to go before the election. Will there be a drumbeat of such items? Housing prices cool.... Consumer confidence dips... job growth slows... wage growth slows... On the other hand, the stock market seems to enjoy the slower growth. Where will it be by November? Does it matter? What metrics will voters use to determine whether they're winners in this economy?
Saturday Brunch blind item: which conservative Midwesterner is all-but-openly running for vice president? His advisers have concluded that a moderate will win the GOP nomination and will need a conservative to rouse the base.
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Posted at 08:29 AM
Comments
Republicans do not hope Bob Corker wins the Senate Primary in TN. DEMOCRATS are licking their chops waiting for a Corker nomination. They have so much dirt on his past they are going to paint him as a robber baron, ultra wealthy, doesn't care about anyone but himself and his rich cronies RINO. His flip flops on the issues and viscious false attacks on his primary opponents will have alienated the conservative GOP base and make this an easy win for Harold Ford. Ed Bryant is the GOP's only hope to maintain the seat in TN.
Patrick Hamilton | 07.29.06 12:01 PM
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