July 28, 2006

The Money Chase: Behind The Numbers

Figuring out which party has more resources to throw at the midterm elections is not as easy as adding up a few numbers.

Combining the $11.2 million in state party federal cash with the $10.6 million banked between the three GOP committees -- the RNC, NRCC and NRSC -- the Republican Party has about $22M more to spend on federal races. Also: groups like Progress for America and Americans for Job Security and the NRA will work at the margins mainly for Republicans. In fact, Republican 527s have outspent Democratic 527s by more than $9M this cycle.

However --

-- the Democratic House and Senate campaign committees are fundraising more successfully th
an ever before -- and that the cash on hand advatange will undoubtedly help them in October.

-- Labor money and foot soldiers, and assorted Dem 527s and 501(c)3 work will also boost the Democrats at the margin -- though in several of the most competitive House races, labor favors the Republican.

Looking at states, at federal races and at 527s, here are some other trends:

IN THE STATES

In April, the Hotline looked at cash on hand totals from all 100 state Democratic and Republican Parties. We found that the Republican parties had a net cash on hand advantage of $10.2 million. Today, the GOP state party advantage is approx. $11.2 million. Overall, Republican state parties outraised their Dem counterparts by 3 to 2.

However -- Democrats have a CoH advantage in several important states:

-- AZ, (approx. $400K)
-- IA (approx. $200K)
-- IL (approx. $1M)
--MN (approx $90K)
--MO (approx $50K)
--MT (approx $30K)
--NE (approx $100K)

Most of the Republican padding comes from states where the GOP has a lopsided advantage: FL, SD, MI, OH and PA. [MARC AMBINDER]

FEDERAL RACES

-- the GOP's small donor base, refined by decades of direct mail precision (and now, by microtargeting), is responsible for a high number of individual donors. The GOP, as an aggregate, relies on more individual donors than Democrats do.

--According to estimates, the RNC has outraised the DNC by nearly 87%. But then the DSCC and DCCC figures are added in, the party's advantage drops to 39 percent.

--In 29 of 46 competitive and potentially competitive House races (as designated by the Cook Report), the GOP candidate outraised the Dem candidate. In aggregate, GOP candidates in these 46 races have about $5M more on hand than the Democrats.

FEDERAL PACS

--The Center for Responsive Politics lists the top 25 federal PACs by amount raised. EMILY's List tops the list with $24M raised. The SEIU's PAC is next, which $24.7M raised. The largest GOP-leaning PAC ranks fifth -- the National Association of Realtors has raised $10.6M.

527 COMMITTEES

Ideology          Receipts      Spending (all figures approximate and in millions


Liberal 527s      $63.0M        $55.78

Conserv. 527s     $57.21        $62.25

Top Five Liberal 527s

1. DGA            $17.8M       $14.8

2. EMILY's List   $6.7         $5.44 

   non-federal  

3. America Votes  $4.8         $4.3

4. DLCC           $4.8         $3.8  

5. ACT NOW        $4.5         $6.9 

   non-fed  

Top Five Conservative 527s

1. RGA           $25.88M      $14.96

2. RSLC          $11.67       $9.97

3. Club for      $5.48        $5.96  

   Growth 

4. PFA           $4.67        $11.56

   voter fund

5. College GOP   $2.67        $7.40

   Nat'l Cmte