August 31, 2006
House Race Hotline Update: Moving Targets
The Association of Trial Lawyers of America just purchased $500K in TV and radio ads, targeting five incumbents. But what's interesting about the buy is that two of their targets -- Reps. Chris Chocola (R-IN 02) and Don Sherwood (R-PA 10) -- once looked somewhat safe, but are looking increasingly vulnerable as Election Day draws closer.
-- No one made much of Chocola's 70% primary performance in May over an unfunded opponent. But as polls show '04 nominee Joe Donnelly (D) in the lead, it's starting to look more significant. And in the '04 GOP primary against the same opponent, Chocola won 84%.
-- Also of note: the NRCC hasn't reserved ad time here, forcing Chocola to fend and spend for himself. And it's less GOP than the other two targeted IN CDs.
-- Sherwood looked at risk since his 56% primary win, lowest among victorious incumbents. His opponent, Chris Carney (D), was up on TV first and hasn't been attacked as aggressively as some challengers. (Sherwood also has been in the hospital, restricting his campaigning.)
-- Often the most vulnerable incumbents are the ones not paying attention until too late, and Chocola and Sherwood qualify for that list. JOSH KRAUSHAAR] 
Posted 08.31.06 05:25 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack
Mark Warner, Avatar
SECOND LIFE -- Let's dispense with the hee-haws: yes, it's easy to make fun of Ex-VA Gov. Mark Warner's history-making foray into the world of avatars and Second Life(s)s. But think about it: there are 48 million Americans who use the blogosphere, a fraction of which -- perhaps 4 million -- are regular consumers of the political blogs. This new venture might be mockable, but it's path-breakingly mockable.
The Hotline signed on as "Hotline Burbclave." Our first attempt to navigate the new world was stifled when we bumped into a post. Then, as we attempting to adjust our appearance, we accidentally began to take our clothes off -- the buttons are too close together!
But we managed to make our way to the New Globe Theatre. The site had been virtually "advanced" by Warner's team, just to make sure everything looked good. For a while, folks just stood around. We say stood because it was kind of hard to figure out how to sit down.
Gov. Warner appeared for a while, posing for photographs.
Apparently, CNN's Internet team was preparing a segment and a producer needed some footage. Then, suddenly, Warner turned gray, and then transformed on stage into a nude, buxom woman and flew off.
Hamlet Au, the event's host explained that Warner was "respawning."
At about 3:40, the real Warner flew in from above the stage. The audience, about 20 odd characters, many of them Second Life regulars, virtually clapped. One reporter shouted out "Will Jim Webb win Virginia?"
That violated the rules. Warner would only answer questions from Au this day, although he plans a virtual town hall meeting in September.
"I feel a little disembodied," Warner said. (Said? Typed? Wrote?) Asked what he was doing with his life these days, he started to talk about Virginia, bragging about its accomplishments. (Forbes, Governing Magazine. You know the drill.)
And then it, a little while later, it was over. Our avatar sat on his hands. What now? [MARC AMBINDER]
Posted 08.31.06 04:10 PM | Comments (9) | TrackBack
Trying To Nationalize The Battle For.. State Legislatures!?!?!
In a conference call 8/30 a.m., the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee and ActBlue announced the formation of the State Activation Project. The new organization will make sophisticated online fundraising tools available to Dem state legislative candidates in certain states.
While state legislative candidates have been hindered by high costs, DLCC exec. dir. Michael Davies says a single umbrella organization provides candidates an economy of scale that will help make fundraising more affordable.
ActBlue Pres. Benjamin Rahn says candidates in state contests in CA, IN, IA, ME, MT, OR, PA, SD, TX, UT, VA, and WI will be able to raise money online by 9/4. Those states' campaign finance laws, says Rahn, are similar enough to fed laws that legal hurtles are smallest. NH and OH will soon be online as well.
The new organization has already received help from a number of groups, including the AFL-CIO, which is sponsoring the program in CA, PA and NH; the UT Dem party; Focus South Dakota, a group fighting SD's abortion ban; and the campaign of Rep. Ted Strickland (D-OH), who's sponsoring the program in his state.
IA Sen. Dem Leader Mike Gronstal said the program was the final step that could put his party in the majority in the chamber. He was joined by legislative leaders from OR, NH and PA, all of whom expressed hope that the program would put each of their caucuses in the majority.
Posted 08.31.06 02:20 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
The Hotline Daily Troika: The Buzz From IA, NH and SC
"The Dem "version of affirmative action leaves a lot to be desired." Unions "are a major source" of Dem votes and money, so maybe RI "should be rewarded" for remaining a union stronghold amid general decline. And "gays vote Democratic," so "shouldn't the states that are home to San Francisco and Key West be allowed to vote early?" And "if Jewish contributors keep the party solvent," "shouldn't New York be up there with other pacesetters?" Broder calls this "madness." What was "lost in all this was any sense of public deliberation about the choice of the next president." In the general election, people have "two months or more" to vet their candidates. In the primaries, "eight or 10 people may be vying. What is most needed is time -- and a place -- for them to be carefully examined"
Why does the man have to pick on the gays and the Jews?
Posted 08.31.06 12:11 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack
They Say Democrats Are Out Of Touch With This World, So...
According to a legitimate release from his PAC, Ex-Gov. Mark Warner (D-VA) "will enter into his Second Life" today at 3:30 pm ET. He will become 'the first American political leader to engage in the online virtual world, Second Life."
Warner "will conduct a brief interview with Second Life's embedded reporter, Hamlet Au," and "officially launch Forward Together PAC's new Second Life group." Warner: "Since I left the Virginia governor's office this year, I've traveled across the country to 24 states helping solutions-oriented candidates campaign for congressional and statehouse races. In Second Life, distances and time differences vanish. It will allow us to reach people through a whole new medium."
Warner's "appearance" at the Second Life New Globe Theatre can be viewed here. Second Life is a "3D online world" with a "rapidly growing population of over 589,000 residents from 100 countries around the globe." (Yes, we knew that already, but we presume many of our readers don't yet have avatars.)
Warner "Internet Team Leader" Jerome Armstrong: "This is in many ways an experiment. We want to see what people make of this. How will they organize? How will they interact with each other and with Governor Warner? We're all figuring out new ways to do things online -- in how we work, play and share ideas. We don't know yet how people will use Second Life to engage in politics. But we want to find out" (release, 8/31)
Folks wishing to join the press conference can "create a free account online" at https://secondlife.com/join/
BTW: The Hotline's avatar, created exclusively for this press conference, is "Hotline Burbclave."
We'll see you in the Second Life.
Posted 08.31.06 09:52 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack
Hotline After Dark -- Shays Says He Knows More About Iraq Than Any Member Of Congress
NBC/MSNBC showed more highlights from NBC's Williams' interview with Pres. Bush.
Bush, on Defense Sec. Donald Rumsfeld's speech: "I didn't know he was giving a speech today. The secretary of defense is saying what we all have been saying, that is if we lose our nerve and leave the Middle East before the job is finished, the world will be much worst off."
On Iraq: "I will tell you here, getting rid of Saddam Hussein has made the world safer. Now people will say, well, look at how dangerous Iraq is. What's happening is that a young democracy is battling an ideology of hatred. And I believe the unity government in Iraq will succeed. I believe that you're beginning to see the Iraqi government using their own forces to fight off militia."
Williams: "Do you see the argument that some on the left make that the war in Iraq has amounted to a colossal recruitment poster in the fundamentalist world?"
Bush: "No, I don't see that at all. The fundamentalist world attacked the United States and killed 3,000 people before I even thought about removing Saddam Hussein from power. I just don't buy that argument. It is an argument that's not based upon fact."
On the troops: "All I can tell you is, is that we have a volunteer army full of motivated, decent, honorable citizens, wearing our uniform, and morale is high. Morale is really high. You talk to the families, and you talk to these kids who are fighting for this country, and they understand the stakes, and they're proud to be doing it. And this country owes them a debt of gratitude."
On the world's view of the U.S.: "People don't like my policies, necessarily. They didn't like the fact that I didn't join the international criminal court. They didn't like the fact that I wouldn't sign the Kyoto Protocol, both of which I thought were not good for the country. Many people didn't like the fact that we went after Saddam Hussein, after resolution after resolution. I understand that. ... I would tell you, America is respected. And I would also say, I'd readily concede our policies may not be beloved. But I'll tell you what is the policies that are: we feed the hungry. When the tsunamis hit, it was the United States of America who took the lead. On HIV/AIDS, we're spending $15 billion of taxpayers' money to help people suffering. And so, you know, this country is a country that is doing a lot of good. And my job is to remind the people of the world of the good we're doing."
On his last years in office: "I think the two biggest challenges I would like to see solved in the next two years are, one, the unfunded liabilities inherit in Social Security and Medicare. Baby Boomers are retiring. Fewer people are paying into the system, and the system is going broke. And it's going to require both Republicans and Democrats coming together to reform these systems so that they keep their promise. ... And the other is energy. ... I mean, I stood up and said,
we've got a problem; we're addicted to oil. That's a pretty strong statement for a guy from Texas to make."
More: "We're spending billions of dollars on new technologies. And technology is going to lead us away from dependency on oil. ... Technology doesn't happen overnight. But this administration is laying the foundation for technological change" (NBC/MSNBC, 8/30).
THE CHAIRS HAVE THE FLOOR
RNC Chair Ken Mehlman, on Rumsfeld's Nazi analogy: "I can't explain why Secretary Rumsfeld used it. I've used it too. I think it's very much accurate, and here's why, I think, it is important to explain it in those terms. What we face today is a movement that's united by ideology and that's empowered by technology, and the American people need to understand that. ... It is important that people understand when you are fighting a movement and you're fighting an ideology, that very much affects your tactics and it explains why this is a challenging war to win" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 8/30).
DNC Chair Howard Dean: "Republicans are big on politics, but they're not very good at policy. They're good at winning elections, they're not very good at governing" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 8/30).
And Rep. Chris Shays (R-CT) discussed his Iraq remarks: "I will just go where the truth takes me. And I will live with the silly criticism. But I have been there 14 times. I know more about Iraq than any member of Congress, any senator. I go there every three months."
More Shays: "I think the president does have timelines. He's just not sharing it with people, the way he needs to" ("PZ Now," CNN, 8/30). [EMILY GOODIN]
Posted 08.31.06 07:21 AM | Comments (0)
August 30, 2006
MD SEN: Who Judges "Significant" Candidates?
Is a guy who spends more than $4 million on statewide TV ads a “significant” candidate? What about a nationally recognized academic who spends his mornings waving to motorists and his evenings walking precincts? How about a former state legislator whose career includes a four-year stint as county executive of a jurisdiction that includes 14% of Maryland’s population?
Does that background give him “a reasonable chance” of being elected?
According to criteria established by League of Women Voters of Maryland (LWVMD) and Maryland Public Television (MPT), the answer to all these questions is no. Since millionaire businessman Joshua Rales, college professor Allan Lichtman, and former Baltimore County Executive Dennis Rasmussen all scored below 15% in independent statewide polls prior to July 1, the LWVMD and MPT concluded that none of these three candidates is viable enough to merit inclusion in tomorrow’s televised debate for the Democratic Senate nomination. Only front-runners Ben Cardin and Kweisi Mfume will appear on stage.
The LWVMD is in a tough spot here. With 18 Democrats filed for the Senate seat, it’s sensible to establish candidate inclusion criteria. And the league’s attempt to exclude the fringe candidates who have “no reasonable chance of being elected” is a necessary evil, if for no reason other than practicality.
But in this case, the 15% polling threshold that defines a viable or “significant candidacy” may be doing a disservice to Maryland voters. In most other states, and by most objective measures, Rales, Lichtman and Rasmussen would be considered top tier Senate primary candidates.
Since the decision to exclude the three is of considerable consequence--this is, after all, the only planned televised debate before the September 12 primary--the trio protested with a press conference today in front of the LWVMD’s Annapolis office. While the staged event was standard campaign fare—a handful of reporters, a few cameras, no voters—the real action occurred afterwards, when the candidates decided to storm the LWVMD offices.
Lichtman was the first candidate in, trailing after the reporters who sought out LWVMD President Lu Pierson for comment. Within a few minutes, the cramped space was jampacked with media, candidates and campaign staffers. The beleaguered but gracious Pierson answered a few press questions, but struggled as Lichtman and Rales -- and their wives – confronted her with loaded questions about the fairness of the debate inclusion criteria.
Pierson held her own, but Rales managed to stump her with this one: “Do you feel you are similar to the Supreme Soviet in how you govern?” [CHARLES MAHTESIAN]
Posted 08.30.06 07:53 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack
Party People
Welcome back to On The Download, your almost-daily dispatch on politechs: Politics, Multimedia and the Internet. Hotline subscribers: Check out our archives.
If you have tips, comments, or suggestions, email us.
The DNC launched Party Builder, its online social organizing and fundraising tool, last Friday. It's the answer to MyGOP.com. Both programs offer similar features, but most notable is how the GOP uses a homepage as its base (think MySpace), while the DNC's new tool looks a whole lot like The Facebook. Why re-invent the wheel, when it already runs so smoothly? MySpace and Facebook are in the top 20 sites in the country.
A quick comparison of what can be done with both sites:
*The DNC has put all of its action tools under the Party Builder, except for the blog which can be accessed via the main home page too. Supporters create a profile, join groups, make "friends," create/join events, fundraise, sign petitins and send letters to the editor. Unlike the RNC's blog, users comments are a free-for-all under the post while the RNC's blog comments are listed by user.
*The RNC's Action Center and its MyGOP.com portal are seperate features on the site, but link to many of the same functions. At the Action Center, users can host a party, take a survey, contact their Rep., call talk radio, get GOP paraphenalia, join teams, recruit volunteers and register people to vote. At MyGOP, supporters can do all the above and show off their progress.
In the simplest of political theories, each party's tool is reflective of their respectivie philosophies. Talk about competitive market: RNC users compete to get points, dollars and yes, the elusive "official" GOP ipod. With what is most like an intentional emphasis on competition, MyGOP users how much money they've raised (up to $200), voters they've and volunteers they've recruited. The DNC's Party Builder is all about building and communicating within a community.
Most important is to check out how each party gathers information about the user. The RNC has different logins for different features, such as the blog, personal homepage and volunteer recruitment center. It's a model for different levels of engagement and getting lots of names without shoving committment into a user's face -- and typically getting a larger drop-off rate in return. The DNC takes a different approach. By singing up with Party Builder, the DNC gets basic information in the login and then collects information through the user's profile, signed petitions, signed letters to the editor and their network/group memberships. So why do we care? These users are the party's next loyal supporter and volunteer. And how much information the parties have on these folk will determine the strength of their online activism in '06 and '08, which is conveniently transferable to field staffs across the country.
*For more Web Ads, check out Web AD-dict. In the meantime, a few bytes: An anonymous Ohio Democrat has visualized "This State" of GOP politics. Arizona Governor Janet Napolitano is starting weekly video message to supporters. Roy Temple's Fired Up Missouri thinks Jim Talent has a few good friends. The Minnesota Republican party tells Mike Hatch "That's what friends are for", and describes Amy Klobuchar's "Hostile Work Environment." TN Democrats are out with www.bigbrysondoubletalk.com, while the AZ Republican party ask "What's the trouble with Harry?"
Posted 08.30.06 04:28 PM | Comments (0)
Today's Blogometer: So What?
In sum, that's Ramesh Ponnuru response to lefty criticism of Club for Growth's targeting of Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R-RI) at the possible expense of a GOP majority in the Sen. For months now, progressive bloggers have been decrying the lack of media attention RI SEN has received compared to their efforts to unseat Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT).
There are many things that distinguish the two races (Chafee was never a GOP VP candidate, for starters) but the more important difference is mentioned by Ponnuru: the Club for Growth does not exist to help the GOP control Congress.
On the other hand, partisanship is the stated goal of DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas in his book Crashing the Gates. This is part of what made the targeting of Lieberman such a story.
Perhaps it is a function of who is in power, and who is not, but the lefty blogosphere is much more concerned with tactics and strategy than ideological purity. If the Dems have a Sweet November, then maybe we'll see if Lieberman-like purges become the norm, instead of the exception.
Check out the latest The Blogometer
Posted 08.30.06 04:09 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack
Why Did Sen. Stevens Place A Hold On The Transparency Bill?
Aaron Saunders, spokesperson for Stevens, said Coburn was informed two weeks ago that his boss had concerns about the bill. Namely, Stevens is concerned that the bill would create more bureaucracy. He wants to see a cost-benefit analysis.Saunders said there was nothing secret about what Stevens did.
“Senator Stevens has always preferred to handle this at the staff level or member to member,” Saunders said. “He doesn’t like running to the blogosphere or the media.”
“Our reticence in getting out there is that Stevens doesn’t want to be in the media attacking Coburn,” Saunders said. “He has never addressed legislative concerns in the media. It is just not the way the senator has ever operated.”
Posted 08.30.06 03:12 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
Hosue Race Hotline Update: Hefley In A Huff
Rep. Joel Hefley (R-CO 05) just announced he wouldn't run a write-in campaign against state Sen. Doug Lamborn (R), but he's still not going to lift a finger to help his party hold the seat.
-- Hefley's handpicked candidate, Jeff Crank, lost a close and nasty primary to Lamborn. The CO arm of the Christian Coalition sent direct mail accusing him of supporting "the radical homosexual lobby." Many prominent conservatives condemned the attacks and Lamborn's campaign. But Lamborn won because he had a solid enough lead among early voters who cast ballots before the pieces hit.
-- A reliable conservative, Hefley has nonetheless diverged from the party leadership in the past. As Ethics Cmte chair, he admonished ex-Maj Ldr Tom DeLay, and then lost his leadership post. Despite occasionally straying from the party-line, he's a well-respected figure within the CD.
-- The Dem nominee, Gulf War vet Jay Fawcett, is still a long-shot despite getting financial support from the netroots. But Hefley's public opposition to Lamborn is an unwelcome interparty nuisance for the GOP when they're trying to defend more pressing seats. JOSH KRAUSHAAR]
Posted 08.30.06 03:08 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
The Dumbest? The Poorest? The Fattest?
Everyone loves rankings, and yesterday we learned which states were the fattest, dumbest and poorest. So we crunched the numbers, and put together this chart that lists each state's ranks in mean SAT score, obesity rate, and poverty rate. Please note that with each rating, the lower means more obese, less smart, or more poor.
(An editorial note: we're not actually calling anyone anywhere dumb or fat; we are aware of the objections to the SAT and of the scientific debates about obesity. That said, it's August. Lighten up a little.)
SAT Obesity Poverty Average
Alabama 37 2 8 15.67
Alaska 19 15 34 22.67
Arizona 26 43 16 28.33
Arkansas 39 7 7 17.67
California 17 30 21 22.67
Colorado 35 51 36 40.67
Connecticut 21 46 49 38.67
Delaware 7 29 3 13.00
DC 1 39 40 26.67
Florida 4 35 25 21.33
Georgia 6 12 14 10.67
Hawaii 2 50 45 32.33
Idaho 30 31 18 26.33
Illinois 49 23 29 33.67
Indiana 12 8 28 16.00
Iowa 50 21 38 36.33
Kansas 44 26 32 34.00
Kentucky 36 5 9 16.67
Louisiana 40 4 2 15.33
Maine 13 34 26 24.33
Maryland 16 24 50 30.00
Massachusetts 23 49 41 37.67
Michigan 38 11 23 24.00
Minnesota 46 27 47 40.00
Mississippi 33 1 1 11.67
Missouri 45 14 22 27.00
Montana 29 45 15 29.67
Nebraska 43 20 39 34.00
Nevada 10 42 37 29.67
New Hampshire 24 36 51 37.00
New Jersey 15 40 48 34.33
New Mexico 32 40 4 25.33
New York 9 36 19 21.33
North Carolina 14 17 13 14.67
North Dakota 51 18 35 34.67
Ohio 28 15 24 22.33
Oklahoma 41 13 10 21.33
Oregon 25 33 17 25.00
Pennsylvania 5 19 30 18.00
Rhode Island 11 47 27 28.33
South Carolina 3 8 11 7.33
South Dakota 48 22 20 30.00
Tennessee 42 6 12 20.00
Texas 8 10 6 8.00
Utah 34 43 42 39.67
Vermont 20 47 33 33.33
Virginia 18 25 44 29.00
Washington 27 31 31 29.67
West Virginia 22 3 5 10.00
Wisconsin 47 28 43 39.33
Wyoming 31 36 46 37.67
Best Worst CO 40.67 SC 7.33 MN 40.00 TX 8.00 UT 39.67 WV 10.00 WI 39.33 GA 10.67 CT 38.67 MS 11.67
- SC has the worst average ranking of SAT score, obesity rate and poverty rate (7.3). CO has the best (40.7).
- NH and IA are 8th and 9th best, respectively, when you average the three rankings (37.0 and 36.33).
- Attention Joe Biden: DE is the blue state with the lowest average ranking (13), and the only one in the bottom 10. We guess DE does have more in common with southern states, afterall.
- TX is the only state to be in the bottom 10 for each category.
- MS comes in at number one in obesity and poverty
Posted 08.30.06 12:17 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack
The Hotline Daily Troika: Buzz from IA, NH and SC
Posted 08.30.06 10:16 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Hotline After Dark -- Bush Hosts Book Notes
Pres. Bush sat down for an interview with NBC's Williams. Portions aired across all NBC/MSNBC platforms:
On his Katrina legacy: "When it's all said and done, the people down here know that I stood in Jackson Square and I said we're going to help you, and we delivered. And that's what matters. ... My heart and my soul is to help these people, and they know it. ... I'm confident we will rebuild this part of the country."
On what could have been done better: "I think we should have better coordination with the state and local government. The enormity of the storm just overwhelmed all aspects of government, and I believe had we been better coordinated, communicated better, moved equipment better, coordinated better on who is responsible for troops, we could have done a better job."
Asked if the U.S. fought the "wrong war" in regards to the war on terror: "Did we fight the wrong war? Naturally, I have no doubt. The war came to our shores, remember that. We had a foreign policy that basically said, let's hope calm works, and we were attacked."
More: "They weren't Iraqis, nor did I ever say that Iraq ordered that attack, but Iraq is part of the struggle against the terrorists. ... I think fighting this war is the absolute right thing to do. Now, in terms of image, of course I worry about American image. We're great at TV, and yet we're getting crushed in the PR front. And so we work hard and try to work smart about how we get a message out that says, we respect Islam, we just reject the ideology of extremists who kill innocent people to achieve political objectives. ... We retreat, they follow us. And I see this clearly as day. I mean, I understand the challenge and I also understand the frustrations of our citizens."
He continues: "I personally do not believe Saddam Hussein picked up the phone and said to al Qaeda, Attack America."
On his relationship with his father: "My relationship is adoring son."
Williams: "You talk shop?"
Bush: "Sometimes, yea, of course we do. But it's a really interesting question. It's kind of conspiracy theory at its most rampant. My dad means the world to me -- as a loving dad. He gave me the greatest gift a father can give a child, which is unconditional love. ... He understands what it means to be president. He understands that oftentimes I have information that he doesn't have. And he understands how difficult the world is today. And I explain my strategy to him, I explain exactly what I just explained to you back there how I view the current tensions, and he takes it on board, and leaves me with this thought, I love you son."
On his legacy: "First of all, there's no such thing as short-term history as far as I'm concerned. I think that you can't judge a presidency based upon, a moments notice. ... Eventually my standing in history will be judged by people 30 or 40 years from now who will be able to take an objective look, at whether the decisions I made led to peace and prosperity. You know, this is a job where you make decisions. And you do what you think is right. And you let people recognize, and the people are gonna say what's on their mind at the moment. But I read 3 histories of George Washington last year. The first President of United States is still being analyzed by historians, which oughtta say to this president and future president, 'Do what you think is right and eventually historians will figure out whether it made sense or not.'"
On why he read Camus: "I was in Crawford and I said I was looking for a book to read and Laura said you oughtta try Camus. I also read three Shakespeare's."
Williams: "A few months ago you were reading the life story of Joe DiMaggio by Richard Ben Cramer."
Bush: "Which was a good book."
Williams: "You've been on a Teddy Roosevelt reading kick."
Bush: "Well I'm reading about the battle of New Orleans right now. I've got an eclectic reading list." More: "The key for me is to keep expectations low."
Williams: "How have you been read wrong?"
Bush: "I dunno. I frankly don't pay that much attention. I don't wanna hurt people's feelings, but..."
Williams: "Still not watching television, huh?"
Bush: "I watched a good baseball game" (NBC, 8/29).
AND NOW, THE REST OF THE STORY
Most of TV last night focused on the Hurricane Katrina anniversary and the capture of Warren Jeffs.
CNN's S. O'Brien: "President Bush was in New Orleans today. Despite smiles and handshakes, he did acknowledge that governments on all levels fell short of their responsibilities when Katrina hit" ("PZ Now," 8/29).
FNC's Baier: "Senior aides say the president's two-day trip to the Gulf Coast was designed, in part, to deflect what they call misguided criticism that the administration has forgotten about the troubles here" ("Special Report," 8/29).
Sen. David Vitter (R-LA): "We need more of a plan. We need that leadership here on the ground, particularly in the city of New Orleans, but in the state in general. And that has held things up. You know, Congress and the American taxpayer have sent down boatloads of money. Now the challenge is getting it to have an impact here on the ground, with a plan, making that happen right, pushing that through the bureaucracy" ("PZ Now," CNN, 8/29).
Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA): "The bottom line is that the federal bureaucracies that exist today are not sufficient in any way to deal with the catastrophic situation that occurred here" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 8/29).
Gov. Haley Barbour (R-MS): "I don't know enough about what's happened in Louisiana, but I do know this: We've got the same federal government Louisiana's got. And Texas has got the same federal government as Louisiana's got, and Alabama and Florida. If it's the federal government's problem, why didn't it happen in Mississippi, in Texas, in Alabama and Florida?" ("Hannity & Colmes," FNC, 8/29).
AND A HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO YOU
On Sen. John McCain's (R-AZ) 70th b-day, CNN examined if he's too old to be president. CNN's Bash: "Anyone McCain's age faces higher risks. The government says 88 percent of those over 65 have at least one chronic health condition. One in four older Americans suffer from a decline in cognitive health. McCain's personal history adds to the challenge -- multiple bouts of skin cancer and invasive surgery to remove it. ... A top aide insists McCain is now cancer-free and tells CNN he's checked at the Mayo Clinic every three months. They are preparing for the scrutiny that comes with a bid for president."
More Bash: "Six years ago, McCain released some 1,500 pages of medical records in an effort to prove the former prisoner of war was physically and psychologically fit to be president. Aides say they'll have to do that again, but when it comes to the age factor. ... What you hear from his aides over and over again is one simple message -- in a post-9/11 world, they believe that voters will buy the fact that life experience matters" ("Situation Room," 8/29). [EMILY GOODIN]
Posted 08.30.06 09:33 AM | Comments (1)
August 29, 2006
Texas 22: Too Cute By...
On the surface, the decision by Gov. Rick Perry to call for a special election to fill out the remainder of Rep. Tom DeLay's term seems smart.
It gives GOPer Shelley Sekula-Gibbs a bona fide ballot line. And it reminds Republicans in their districts whom to write in when filling out the other ballot that same day -- the ballot to determine who will actually replace DeLay when his term expries in January.
But will it make things easier?
Rick Hasen isn't so sure:
It does put her name in front of voters for the special election (perhaps making it easier for voters who want to cast a write-in vote for her in the general election to do so). But given all the confusion with the write-in campaign, I wonder how many voters will see her name, think that this is a "special" election, and think they need not cast a write-in vote for her as well. Lots of confusion to be expected here
There is also a slight galvanization effect. Dems have another talking point to ladel at Sekula-Gibbs for being a crony of the DeLay/Perry Republicans. (It's not clear whether Perry, locked in a four-way re-election race, is terribly popular in the 22nd.)
Posted 08.29.06 07:18 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
A Tale Of Two Southern States
Curious as to why a place like Georgia seems to be trending so strongly towards the Republicans while a state like Arkansas remains a Dem bulwark against a strong GOP tide in the rest of region?
The below press releases are helpful in explaining, in part, why two red, Southern states remain very different politically. They are also instructive as to why Dems are favored to regain the governor's mansion in Little Rock, but not given much of a chance in Atlanta.
Gov. Sonny Perdue (R), the first GOP governor in the history of his state, crows about picking up the endorsement of 76 of Georgia's county sheriffs, 37 of whom are Dems. Two days later, AG/GOV candidate Mike Beebe (D) touts support from 68 of his state's sheriffs, all of whom are Dems.
Why the big deal? Because it reflects the larger state of political affairs in each place.
As Georgia elects more Republicans up and down the ballot, the last bastion of rural Dem strength, the so-called "courthouse crowd," becomes more comfortable crossing party lines and publicly stating their support for statewide GOP candidates. Surely such Dem sheriffs are already -- and have been for some time -- voting for Republican presidents. Now they're backing a GOP governor over a South Georgia Democrat, LG Mark Taylor, with deep roots in his party's rural tradition. The next logical step is to back Republicans at the local level and, finally, to switch parties, themselves. The end result is the political death of the Dems' "courthouse crowd" and the top-to-bottom dominance of the GOP in states like Georgia. Without a local bench, where will Dems find their state house and congressional candidates?
Arkansas, regional anomaly that it is, offers a different scenario. An elected official for nearly a quarter-century, Beebe is a known quantity among state and local pols. Having held a state senate seat for 20 years in north-central Arkansas' White County, Beebe represents the rural strength Dems still enjoy in Arkansas. The county sheriffs there are still 90% Dem and, despite 10 years of a Republican in the governor's mansion, would not consider crossing party lines to support the GOP candidate for governor. For a host of reasons, Arkansas, despite its conservative bearing, has resisted embracing the Republican party. So with a courthouse crowd -- the bench -- that has stayed loyal to the Dems, the Legislature remains firmly in the grip of the party. And with a Dem-dominated Capitol, the political giving from the close-knit business community continues to flow to the Dems -- sustaining the cycle.
[JONATHAN MARTIN]
Posted 08.29.06 04:40 PM | Comments (4)
The Fab 15
We Watch These Races, So You Don't Have To
There are, to be sure, hundreds of down-ballot races worth watching in '06. For hundreds of reasons. We'll keep tabs on the latest developments in some of these races, which feature rising stars from both parties and all regions of the country, as well as local storylines with nat'l angles. In no particular order, here are a few we think merit more than a passing glance:
Posted 08.29.06 04:39 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack
House Race Hotline Update: Criss Crossed
Rep. Chris Shays (R-CT 04), a stalwart supporter of the war in Iraq, said his position on troop withdrawal evolved during his 14th visit to Iraq. He now favors setting a timetable, and will be holding hearings on Iraq next month.
-- The 9/06 hearings will push Iraq to the forefront of the debate. That's not welcome news for CT's two other 2 vulnerable GOPers (Simmons/Johnson), who would rather talk about the broader "war on terror" or domestic issues.
-- Will voters judge candidates on their "timetable" position or on their overall view of the Iraq war? Shays' opponent, Diane Farrell (D), drew headlines for opposing a time-certain withdrawal earlier this month, but she's been a staunch opponent of the Iraq war from the beginning. And Shays has been one of the leading Iraq hawks, but is now getting attention for supporting a withdrawal.
-- Has Shays finally succumbed to the anti-war sentiment in his CD? After his 7/06 visit to Iraq, he said he opposed any deadlines. But with two months before the election, he's adapted his position. Will Shays' change-of-mind come across as sincere or politically motivated?
[ JOSH KRAUSHAAR]
Posted 08.29.06 02:15 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack
Big Sugar Rules Florida
Big Sugar's influence in Florida politics is not to be dismissed.
Right now, the sugar industry's political committees are spending more than 1.8 million on a subterranean campaign to disqualify Dem gubernatorial candidate Jim Davis, who has a narrow lead going into his 9/5 primary against Rod Smith.
Their ads have nothing to do with cane fields and crops; one attacked Davis for missing Congress's resolution condemning Hezbollah. A direct mail piece was sent to virtually every Jewish voter in South Florida that showed up Big Sugar's lists, according to a source with knowledge of the decision. Another flier, sent to black voters in Miami-Dade county, castigated Davis for his "record of shame" on racial issues, accusing him of neglecting to vote in favor of restitution for wrongfully convicted prisoners. A TV ad accuses Davis of voting against the minimum wage.
The goal is to drive down Davis's turnout among his core voters. Smith is running out of money.
Big Sugar, per the Miami Herald, is "reviled by environmentalists for polluting the Everglades." In 1996, they ingeniously orchestrated a statewide political campaign to push two Everglades clean-up initiatives toward passage. And they heavily fought against a third, which would require the industry itself to foot part of the bill. Davis took Smith to task for supporting a Big Sugar out in the cleanup. And then the industry decided to dethrone Davis.
As the Orlando Sentinel noted,
Sugar companies control some 700,000 acres in the Everglades Agricultural Area south of Lake Okeechobee. They would love to turn wide swaths of that into houses. The governor appoints the secretary of the Department of Community Affairs, the state agency that oversees development. Given Mr. Smith's atrocious record on environmental issues and his eagerness to take Big Sugar's help, it's easy to guess what kind of DCA secretary he would appoint.
In Florida, 527s can't coordinate directly with candidates but they can do pretty much everything else. As the Herald notes, Sugar (daddy?) lobbyist Screven Watson is one of Smith's closest advisers.
The state's editorial boards hate Big Sugar. But there are many wealthy farmers in the state, and Big Sugar has plenty of money to fund its political activities. Right now, they're chafing under a federal-state agreement to clean up the Everglades and they hope the next governor asserts state prerogatives. (The federal magistrate overseeing the cleanup doesn't seem to be a fan of the industry's.)
Big Sugar doesn't seem to care whether their tactics are dirty or not. If you'd like to learn more, check out Pulitzer Prize winning Miami Herald columnist/.author Carl Hiassen's Striptease. (The book, not the move.)
Posted 08.29.06 12:30 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack
McCain's Michigan Endorsement
Conservatives for McCain -- or Michigan Conservatives for McCain -- is a new blog on Townhall. It's run by Dan Carlson, the chair of the Michigan Federation of College Republicans. He'll provide a good source of Michigan-based foot soldiers for McCain in '08. Right now, Carlson's blog on IA's Chuck Larson is the top opinion blog on the Townhall site.
In other Michigan '08 news, Gov. Mitt Romney's RGA has given $750K to run issue ads on behalf of Dick DeVos's gubernatorial bid. That comes after the RGA sent $500K to Iowa. It's easy to see these public announcements as too cute by half for a presidential candidate, but here's the rhyme: the RGA wants the DGA to waste money in Michigan, and we're fairly certain the DGA took some phone calls yesterday from allies of Dem governor Jennifer Granholm, wanting to know when their money would be arriving. Luckily, DGA chair Bill Richardson is a potential presidential candidate, too. Still, a fair question can be asked: why give money to a state where your candidate is a self-funder? Why not to Colorado or Maryland, two states where a public infusion of cash could boost the GOPers in that state? We know the RGA is doing quite a bit below the radar in those states, but publicity often begets more money.
Posted 08.29.06 11:26 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
The Hotline Daily Troika: The Buzz From IA, NH and SC
Posted 08.29.06 09:43 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
Hotline After Dark -- How Many Times Can Shays Say "Timeline"?
With breaking news in the JonBenet Ramsey case, a lot of cable coverage was devoted to that topic. There was some talk of the Hurricane Katrina anniversary and whether the region is prepared for another storm.
But, first of all, Rep. Chris Shays (R-CT) was on "Hardball" last night to discuss his call for a timetable on U.S. troops in Iraq:
Shays: "I'm not breaking with the president in supporting the mission in Iraq. I am a strong believer that we need to be fully engaged militarily, economically and politically and I believe that if we leave now or leave prematurely, you will see clearly a higher oil prices but what's more fearsome is you will see an Iraq that's dominated by Iran."
Asked if he's calling for a timetable: "Yes, but one more thing you will see the terrorists win and we can't allow them to win. I'm calling for a timetable on three things. One, that they set provisional elections, that they have reconciliation and a timeline to do it, a timeline for finishing the constitution and give them the timeline on how long our troops will be there, doing the police work that ultimately we want them to do."
More: "Taking this position doesn't help me politically, but more importantly I want to make sure that you see the distinction. I agree with the president in our mission, I agree that we have got to succeed. The only difference and it's a big difference, but it's the one difference, and that is I think the way to get the Iraqis to wake up, to do the heavy lifting, is to let them know that we are not there indefinitely, that there's not an open checkbook, that we're not going take sustained losses indefinitely."
He continues: "The Democratic timeline, was not based on specific fact. Their timeline was just get out, whether or not we can do it. My timeline is based on this important fact, we tell the Iraqis when they replace our, our troops leave" (MSNBC, 8/28).
THE BIG EASY
Amid all the stories on New Orleans recovery (and its lack of recovery), there was talk of the political fallout:
CNN's Schneider: "A year later, New Orleans has not fully recovered. And neither has President Bush" ("Lou Dobbs Tonight," 8/28).
FNC's Baier: "While emphasizing one year later he understands there is a lot of work to do, the president said he sees signs of recovery, renewal and hope" ("Special Report," 8/28).
Pat Buchanan: "I think the president was asleep at the switch in this sense. He's on vacation. His top staffers aren't there. He wasn't alerted to the fact that every journalist in the country was down there focusing on this. He's got usually good political instincts. They either were not touched here or they weren't working" ("Scarborough Country," MSNBC, 8/28).
CNN's Bash: "While Democrats are slamming the president's trip to the Gulf Coast this week as nothing more than a photo op, 25 House Democrats are there right along with Mr. Bush to deliver their talking points. The delegation is descending on Louisiana and Mississippi over the next two days to talk about everything from health care to insurance with local residents there" ("Situation Room," 8/28).
Newsweek's Wolffe: "It has become emblematic of a whole range of problems with the Bush administration that again, the president has worked hard to overcome. But they are still there, questions of competency, again about compassion and so, you know, the downside is really for, I would say, Democrats in Louisiana, people who may fell angry at incumbents, generally. But for Democrats nationally, I don't think there are not too many downsides" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 8/28). [EMILY GOODIN]
Posted 08.29.06 07:14 AM | Comments (0)
August 28, 2006
Ken Blackwell's First Ad
The Ohio GOP gubernatorial nominee goes negative:
In the campaign for Governor, watch out Ohio for Taxin’ Ted Strickland. In Congress, Taxin’ Ted voted 31 times to increase taxes - on gasoline, family income, even social security. Fifty-two times he opposed a tax cut - on married couples, families with children and even medical savings. Taxin’ Ted hasn’t ruled out raising taxes as Governor. Ohio’s already one of the highest taxed states – costing us jobs. We don’t need Taxin’ Ted to make us number one.
BTW: We've noticed that Blackwell's press releases always refer to Strickland as a "former prison psychologist," which, while technically true, is rather evocative.
Posted 08.28.06 03:24 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
House Race Hotline Update: Round Two!
The GOP Sweep in 1994 was mostly built on fresh faces, but a few victors had the pleasure of beating incumbents whom they had lost to in '92, such as Jon Fox (R-PA), Enid Greene Waldholtz (R-UT), and Doc Hastings (R-WA). This may bode well for certain Dems running in '06, but it's important to note that these '94 victors had come close to winning in '92, with 47%-49% of the vote each.
Lois Murphy (R-PA 06) and Diane Farrell (R-CT 04) can certainly take heart in their 49% and 48% near-wins in 2004, and each is well-positioned heading into this fall. But the path is much steeper for Paul Hodes (D-NH 02) and Jerry McNerney (D-CA 11), with '04 losses of 38% and 39% respectively. Joe Courtney's (D-CT 02) decent 46% loss in '02 may give him some comfort, however John Cranley's (D-OH 01) 45% loss in '00 was in a CD with more Dems than the one he's currently running in.[ JOSH KRAUSHAAR]
Posted 08.28.06 02:30 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack
Florida Politics Cancels Itself
But wait until the cleanup begins!
MEMO
TO: Interested Parties
FROM: Becky Holian
DATE: Monday, August 28, 2006
SUBJECT: Bus Tour/Tropical Storm Ernesto
"All bus tour activities featuring Chief Financial Officer Tom Gallagher scheduled for tomorrow, August 29th in the South Florid a area have been postponed due to Tropical Storm Ernesto. The Treasurer’s chief concern right now is to the safety of all Floridians, including campaign staff and volunteers. Hurricane-force winds are expected to hit Florida within the next 24-hours. "
Posted 08.28.06 11:50 AM | Comments (0)
72 Hour Program Activated In RI....
Democrats were right in 2004: the Republicans have adopted a draft. It only applies, however, to party workers employed by state victory committees in the east of the Mississippi. For many it will be worse than boot camp. They are to be sent to Rhode Island to try to rescue Republican Sen. Lincoln Chafee’s re-election campaign in the September 12th primary.
Workers start arriving Friday and will be charged with sorting out the mess that Washington operatives believe is the Chafee campaign. First task may be to get Republican voters to forget Chafee’s erratic performance in the last two of the four broadcast debates between the incumbent and his lively challenger, Cranston mayor Stephen Laffey.
Scores of GOP workers will begin arriving this week and stay through the open primary as they search for and then try to persuade some of the 70,000 registered Republicans and several hundred thousand independent voters eligible to participate in the open primary to support Chaffee. Draftees, many of whom may be more compatible with Laffey, will be paid by their home-state committees. Food and lodging expenses will be picked up by Republican National Committee. Some of the faithful, however, may prefer to go AWOL than work for a Republican who opposes mangers on public property and calls the Club for Growth one of most notorious special interest groups in Washington.
Party pros may be hoping that the influx of energetic workers will inspire Chafee to put some heat under what they see as his lethargic performance in the day-to-day grind of campaigning in the Ocean State. [KEVIN F. RENNIE]
Posted 08.28.06 10:39 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack
Is Sen. Joe Biden A Northeastern Liberal?
How would he do in the South as a presidential candidate?
“Better than anybody else. You don't know my state. My state was a slave state. My state is a border state. My state is the eighth largest black population in the country. My state is anything from a northeast liberal state.”
This is not the first time that Biden has made the argument that his state cannot be easily caricatured as a liberal, northeastern enclave. Speaking to another SC audience in May, Biden invoked the accents of those who live in what DE'ans refer to as the "Slower Lower" portion of the state to tell them that he felt right at home in the Palmetto State.
Posted 08.28.06 09:06 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
RNC Convention Tea Leaves: Check The Wind
Tomorrow, Hurricane Ernesto will probably strike Florida.
That's two years to the day that the Republican National Convention is scheduled to begin.
Tampa has reasons to be nervous about its chances....
Posted 08.28.06 08:55 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
August 26, 2006
The Saturday Brunch
An exclusive Saturday political news digest and tip sheet from the editors of the Hotline.
WHAT'S BREWING
'06 SENATE RACES
'06 GOVERNORS RACES
'06 HOUSE RACES
CROSSING OUR TRANSOM
CHEW ON THIS
"If you survey the legislative and political landcscape for what kind of attention various issues are receiving within Congress, one noticeable shift has been on the judges front. The judges issue had, for several years, been a highly visible issue, with Senate Republican leadership placing a premium on floor debate, multiple cloture votes, and impassioned stump speeches around the country. Now, we hear almost nothing about the subject from the Senate, even though Democrats have been holding a number of nominees hostage, which, secondarily, slows down the overall process. As Senators standing for reelection meet with constituents back home, we should begin to think about how we can help to clarify the choices voters face at the ballot box this November."
It's interesting how few political strategists in either party think judges have ever (at least since '92) been a voting issue, even for social conservatives.
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Posted 08.26.06 10:24 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
August 25, 2006
H-MRI: Mike Huckabee, The Sam's Club Candidate?
The Hotline turns on the H-MRI, continuing a series of short scans of WH '08 resumes. Over the next few months, we'll cut to the bone to assess candidates' records and tease out the interplay of policy and politics in their lives. Our first scan examined Sen. Evan Bayh's relationship with organized labor.
So who is Gov. Mike Huckabee? A former minister with a razor sharp wit? A tax-cutting Southern GOP governor? A pragmatic, big-government conservative? The original compassionate conservative? The similarities with ex-Pres. Clinton are more numerous than you think. His wife's ambitions are responsible for his life-changing political bruises. He didn't come from (and never quite fit in with) AR's political culture. He speaks in narrative, not in policies. And his view of government departs from party consensus. Will the base fall for him? On social issues, he has the type of credibility that moral activists in early primary states drool over. But he also has a soft edge. On government and taxes, he's, well, different. Even in a post-Bush era, it's hard to see primary voters eschew ideology. But if the base is more pragmatic and open to bigger gov't, and if the evangelist for this cause is a pastor himself, Huckabee may become the most electable conservative.
To movement conservatives assessing the crop of '08 candidates, Gov. Mike Huckabee (R-AR) is an attractive, though beguiling bundle of unorthodoxies. But if he gets through the primaries and becomes the party's nominee, he could be a nightmare for Democrats desperately trying to regain the mantle as the party of the working class. Democrats talk about improving public health; Huckabee can say that he's done it. Democrats talk about raising the minimum wage; Huckabee signed a law that makes his state's the highest in the region.
First things first. Nat'l reporters covering Huckabee have begun to notice what AR reporters - and many conservative activists - have known all along. It's hard to stereotype the guy. Like another AR governor of recent vintage, The Huck, as he is known by some media wags back home, is not anchored by ideology. [MARC AMBINDER AND JONATHAN MARTIN]
His Anti-Bush/Washington Schtick?
Huckabee conceded he had a "visceral" - and he did not mean positive - reaction to NSA data mining of phone records. He worries that there is some "racism" among those who angrily oppose guest worker programs. He concedes a human role in warming the earth and a human responsibility to steward it. And that is just in the past few months.
He is quick to mention how he supports the public schools. He opposes same-sex marriage and believes government should affirm the primacy of heterosexual marriage, but he's uncomfortable with a constitutional amendment that would "ban" same-sex marriage -- he'd rather see one affirm something, rather than ban something else.
While he supports the reduction of capital gains tax rates, he's contemptuous about a presidential platform based upon a Beltway issue like that.
"I didn't grow up a child of privilege," he told reporters at an informal lunch gathering last spring. "If you've grown up like more Americans have, you have an understanding that there are some people out there that, at the end of the day, are really wondering how they're gonna pay the rent tomorrow, and for them, it's not a big discussion about marginal tax rates and capital gains reduction."
Last year, as oil prices reached record levels and as Wal-Mart, Arkansas's pride and joy, contemplated raising prices to cushion the blow to its profit margins, Huckabee blasted oil companies. "Market forces," he said, are "one thing." But the companies are "stealing from absolutely the poorest people." When people are suffering, he said, "there's no excuse" for windfall profits.
Is Huckabee a populist?
He is certainly not a traditional small-government conservative; he appears to believe that government has an affirmative and unquestionable duty to protect the most vulnerable. At the same time, he seems to have a reflexive distaste for bigness and centralized power, be it in the executive office of the president, in corporations or with government. But that wariness does not extend to his pet issue: public health.
Friends and opponents look to 2002 as the year that changed Huckabee's outlook on politics and life. Like another Arkansas governor, the closest Huckabee's political peril in the state had much to do with his spouse, Janet. Never wildly popular, her run for Sec/State that year was savaged by Republicans in the state, and the relentless media coverage dragged down the governor's popularity and nearly threw own his re-election chances into jeopoardy. Janet Huckabee lost handily; Gov. Huckabee barely won. The experience -- he called it a slow-passing kidney stone -- upended his perspective on politics. He became more aggressive with