August 24, 2006
Diageo/Hotline: Who Will Vote?
This month's Diageo/Hotline poll should serve as a small splash of cold water on "Speaker" Pelosi and "Majority Leader" Reid. But just a splash.
The upshot: our snapshot of likely voters suggests that, nationwide, Republicans may be as ginned up as Democrats. Or both Dems and Republicans may be equally motivated to vote -- even if that level of motivation is low. That said, control of Congress won't be decided by the votes of a majority of likely voters in the country. It'll be decided by voters in about a dozen states across several dozen congressional districts.
Unlike many major national polls, our poll consistently surveys registered voters. And this month, we are dividing our research between regis. voters and likely voters.
-- In our RV sample, Dems are in a strong position. But cull down to "likely voters," and suddenly the GOP seems to have a fighting chance. In the generic ballot, our LV sample has the two parties even. Among all RVs, Dems are up 7.
-- Also of note, Bush's job rating rises 3 points among LVs. (The party I.D. makeup of our LV sample is 4 points more GOP than our RV sample). Which brings us to exactly why handicapping midterms are so difficult. A 3 point shift in party I.D. could tip 10 House races and 2 Senate seats.
Other highlights:
--Your Neighbor Will Do The Right Thing: Dems have a +13 margin among likely voters on this question: Would US Be Better Off If ___ Controlled Congress?
-- Terrified: Only 23% believe that a Democratic Congress would make the US safer. And a President Gore or President McCain would make us safer than a President Kerry or President Hillary Clinton.
-- Time For A Change: 33% of LVs say they'll vote to re-elect their member of Congress, while 32% say they'll vote to replace.
-- Snooze Alert: More GOPers than Dems are interested in the election "a lot," promising further ill for Dem chances?
-- No Credit Where Credit Is Due?: We say we're safer from terror than we were before 9/11/01, but we don't give the Bush admin credit for that. 50% say we're safer, while just 38% say it's the Bush admin's policies that have made us safer.
-- One Of These Things Is Not Like The Other: 53% of voters say the war in Iraq IS part of the global war on terror, while 42% say it's not. The good news for Dems? Indies think it's not, though by a narrow 48%-45% margin.
-- South Of The Border, Down Mexico Way: More of us think the War in Iraq should be Congress' top priority, but more prefer their individual member should keep his head down on immigration matters.
-- The More You Know ... : Congress is not viewed highly by regis. voters. Just 31% of RVs approve of the job they're doing. That's stable with last month, but the bad news is that likely voters -- a heavier GOP sample that pays more attention -- likes Congress less than all voters. Just 27% of LVs say Congress is doing alright.
Posted at 03:17 PM
Comments
so basically nobody knows anything
G Unit | 08.24.06 06:12 PM
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Nothing will possibly change in this country until the next presidential election, no matter who wins it.
The media has too much invested in this "war president" to back down now. The narrative is set in stone.
And Bush/Rove have sewn up a loyal voting bloc that will save the GOP's bacon again, just like the last two election cycles.
Jim J | 08.25.06 11:17 AM
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I predict a Dem takeover of both houses of Congress. I also predict more corners to be turned in Iraq, with the insurgency in its last throes.
Donny R. | 11.29.06 09:56 PM
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