August 16, 2006
Sen. Hillary Clinton's First Ad
According to a press release from Sen. HillaryClinton's campaign, the "positive ad" thanks "New Yorkers for taking a chance on Hillary" and features "real" New Yorkers "detailing how Senator Clinton helped improve their lives."
It's a 60 second spot airing in upstate and suburban cable markets (and a zillion times for free as part of news stories in NYC.)
Howard Wolfson, Clinton's chief political adviser and spokesman, will probably roll his eyes at our analysis, but here goes:
The ad features doubters who were converted by Clinton's tenacity and solid service as a Senator. It mentions -- no, it highlights -- 9/11 (twice) and military bases. A former major general gives his testimonial.
Knowing how much national free media this ad will get, let us propose that it's a preview of the argument Clinton might one day make to wary Democratic primary voters and "unsure" suburbanites across the country. You think you know her. New Yorkers were worried, too, but they gave it a shot and look how great she turned out.
In any event, it ain’t an ad that a normal incumbent with her poll numbers would run.
The ad was produced by longtime Clinton consultant Mandy Grunwald.
Following is the text of the ad:
Senator Clinton (voiceover): I’m Hillary Clinton and I approved this message. Print on Screen: Standing Up For New York William Duffy, Sr., President & Business Manager, Local 138, International Union of Operating Engineers, Manorville, NY: I didn’t know what to expect. Geri Barish, President, One in Nine: The Long Island Breast Cancer Action Coalition, Baldwin, NY: I was very unsure. Senator Clinton: New Yorkers took a chance on me in 2000 and I have worked hard every single day to deserve that chance. Voiceover: Standing Up For New York after 9/11. Print on Screen: Standing Up: $20 Billion For New York After 9/11. Capt. Peter Gorman, President, Uniformed Fire Officers Association: Senator Clinton has been there for firefighters pre- and post-9/11. Voiceover: Standing up to save our military bases. Print on Screen: Standing Up: Saving New York Military Bases. Maj. Gen. Thomas P. Maguire, ANG (Ret.), Fmr. Adjutant General of New York: The Senator’s contributions are yeoman, they’re beyond yeoman. That base is open today because of the contributions the Senator made. Voiceover: Standing up for jobs all across the state. Print on screen: Standing Up For New York Jobs. Brian Hammond, Waddington, NY: What she’s done is she’s actually brought some life to our economy up here. Voiceover: Standing up for children’s health care. Print on screen: Standing Up: $1 Billion for New York’s Children’s Health Care. Senator Clinton: Once in a while we can really make a difference and help one child or one family. Joseph Ward, Lisbon, NY: Joel was diagnosed with adrenoleukodystrophy. I think we got in touch with the one person that really made a difference. We got a call from Senator Clinton’s office, saying that the hospital would absorb the cost of the bone marrow transplant. How do you thank someone for saving your child’s life? Senator Clinton (voiceover): I’m Hillary Clinton and I approved this message.
Posted at 02:57 PM
Comments
Wolfson is very good, there's no denying that, but I really think he's tilting at windmills trying to get Hillary the nomination, much less into the White House. I assume he's telling her he can buy her a new reputation, despite her rock-solid high negatives. But will Democratic voters agree to push a larger boulder up the hill than they have to? I can't see why.
Barring something truly unforeseen, elite retail campaigner Edwards will beat her in Iowa, where he already has more outright support and easily beats her in favorable/unfavorable, which is critical in a caucus. With 15% minimum support required to get delegates in each precinct, second choices matter, and Hillary probably won't even meet the cutoff in some rural precincts.
Nevada comes next, another caucus, and because Edwards has been busting his rear end for the Change to Win unions that are critical there, he was the only contender invited to speak to their convention in Vegas in March. That had Bill Clinton worried enough to privately lobby labor leaders to hold off on any endorsements.
Even if Hillary can rebound in New Hampshire, the Clinton camp clearly is worried that South Carolina will be Edwards' knockout punch. That's obviously why Ickes was pushing against S.C. at the DNC meeting, claiming it wasn't fair.
M. D. Williams | 08.16.06 04:41 PM
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after yesterday's cave in to g.w.bush's will, you have lost my confidence and i sincerely think i cannot vote for you. this vote was the most meaningful for all americans and frankly, ,you messed up.
estheralpert | 08.07.07 12:56 PM
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