August 31, 2006
House Race Hotline Update: Moving Targets
The Association of Trial Lawyers of America just purchased $500K in TV and radio ads, targeting five incumbents. But what's interesting about the buy is that two of their targets -- Reps. Chris Chocola (R-IN 02) and Don Sherwood (R-PA 10) -- once looked somewhat safe, but are looking increasingly vulnerable as Election Day draws closer.
-- No one made much of Chocola's 70% primary performance in May over an unfunded opponent. But as polls show '04 nominee Joe Donnelly (D) in the lead, it's starting to look more significant. And in the '04 GOP primary against the same opponent, Chocola won 84%.
-- Also of note: the NRCC hasn't reserved ad time here, forcing Chocola to fend and spend for himself. And it's less GOP than the other two targeted IN CDs.
-- Sherwood looked at risk since his 56% primary win, lowest among victorious incumbents. His opponent, Chris Carney (D), was up on TV first and hasn't been attacked as aggressively as some challengers. (Sherwood also has been in the hospital, restricting his campaigning.)
-- Often the most vulnerable incumbents are the ones not paying attention until too late, and Chocola and Sherwood qualify for that list. JOSH KRAUSHAAR] 
Posted at 05:25 PM
Comments
The ATLA ads that are running in IN-02 have been posted on IndianaOnMessage.com for two days now, if anyone's interesting in seeing them.
Ryan Nees | 08.31.06 06:22 PM
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lostyand | 02.27.08 03:02 PM
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