August 17, 2006
In South Carolina, A Major Endorsement For McCain
For John McCain, the road to the '08 nomination has several byways. One of them is especially critical: identifying, and then mitigating, the roadblocks that kept McCain from winning the nomination last cycle. To these tasks, John Weaver, Mark Salter and other members of McCain's brain trust have dedicated their waking hours. Not enough money? McCain builds a broad and multi-layered donor base. Lack of Southern support? A methodical courtship of Southern politicians and donors (many in Texas). Lack of credibility with the activist elite in some of the early primary states? High profile opinion drivers are joining McCain's PAC. Opposition from social conservatives? McCain is going out of his way to be civil and accomodating (although not necessarily changing his views).
In South Carolina, one obstacle was particularly galling for McCain in '00. He basically split the veterans' vote with George W. Bush. One major reason was Maj. General Stan Spears, the chief of the state's National Guard forces and the man who almost single-handedly convinced thousands of veterans to vote for Bush. Tonight, that obstacle is unblocked. At a fundraiser in Columbia, SC, Spears said publicly he will support McCain if he runs in '08.
The timing was a surprise, even to McCain's aides. Spears was a private supporter -- one of many -- but he intended to wait until after the November elections to come out on McCain's behalf. Spears is admired and is said to informally command an army of loyal foot soldiers. As a practical matter, his validation of McCain should ease the doubts of many McCain doubters.
One other positive item for McCain: he won an unofficial straw poll at the Iowa State Fair -- the Corn Poll, as it's known. McCain took 22 percent of the 839 who voted in the GOP straw poll. Ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani was a close second. (Mitt Romney took nine percent -- fifth place.) In case you're wondering.... for the Democrats, Ex-Sen. John Edwards tied with Hillary Clinton; each tok 33%. Gov. Tom Vilsack finished third. [MARC AMBINDER]
Posted at 09:44 PM
Comments
I'm tempted to expand on this more for a RedState post, but all of this navelgazing at McCain's endorsements strikes me as old school.
McCain is in essence fighting the last war, locking up the endorsements he imagines were denied to him last time. But what McCain forgot is that Bush won the hearts and minds of Republican primary voters while he also won their leaders' endorsements. Bush was able to be successful because the endorsements/fundraisers/"smart money" were in line with the actual wishes of Republican primary voters.
In McCain's case, he is doing little to secure the support of the conservative grassroots that distrusts him for reasons too long to enumerate here, and he has given us little reason to believe that he will walk back those problematic positions (just the other day he promised to make banning "torture" a hallmark of his presidency -- ugh).
In short, McCain thinks he was doomed by a powerful, insular cabal of Republican insiders, so he's building a powerful, insular cabal of his own. But Bush in 2000 also had plenty of grassroots support and led decisively in public opinion polls, while McCain's position with the grassroots is much more precarious and will likely remain so.
What happens when the establishment leads in a direction the grassroots won't follow? You have full scale revolts over issues like immigration and spending. You get Connecticut. You get MI-07. You get governors in Alaska who don't poll over 20% in their own primary.
Since 2000, we've also seen the growth of a little thing called the blogosphere and YouTube, which will likely alter the playing field dramatically for candidates intent on running the old top-down playbook. Two weeks ago, who would have thought that a budding Presidential campaign could be unraveled or seriously undermined by a clip posted on a website? In 2000, gatekeepers like Spears could dictate the flow of thousands of voters. In a network era, you have the SwiftVets rising out of nowhere and becoming gatekeepers overnight. You have bloggers dissecting every move, and covering and thinking about and analyzing the race in more detail than the old-style gatekeepers. Not engage in the cardinal sin of blogger triumpahism, because I genuinely believe this power is wielded collectively, but we are the new insiders, the new gatekeepers, the new deciders, and many of us don't like what McCain's selling and will do whatever it takes to defeat him.
McCain is running a 2000 strategy in a 2008 world. Once again, he'll likely discover his misfire two years too late.
Machiavel | 08.18.06 01:46 AM
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McCain still has to go some if he wants to lure Republicans who resent his support of campaign finance limits and his constant grandstanding on issues like gay marriage and confirming conservative judges. I won't support him, because he has no experience outside the Senate and because he doesn't impress me as being very bright. He's an American hero, but not all war heroes make good presidents.
AST | 08.19.06 01:26 AM
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