August 09, 2006
Lieberman Pulls A Kerry
The most recent AP writethru of the CT SEN story includes this report:
One strategist, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said Lieberman had about $2 million remaining after the primary race against Lamont.
Come again? Lieberman didn't spend EVERYTHING HE HAD to win the Dem primary?
We bet there are a lot of Senate Dems and nat'l Dems who will not be happy to hear that Lieberman had money left in the bank. Could another $2M in GOTV been the difference between losing 52-48 and winning 52-48? This is NOT going to sit well with many in the Beltway Democratic establishment who wished Lieberman would have won this thing so this distraction could come to an end. And instead, they are in the midst of advising fellow Dems to get behind Lamont and hoping that somehow Lieberman decides to put his (ex?) party before himself. [CHUCK TODD]
UPDATE: Our colleague, Chris "The Fix" Cillizza, notes that it's possible the $2M leftover was general election money and couldn't be used in the primary. For the Lieberman's camp's P.R. in DC, they better hope just about all of that money was legally untouchable in the primary.
Full AP story after the jump:
Experts say Lieberman, not Lamont, will drive Senate race
By STEPHANIE REITZ
HARTFORD, Conn. (AP) - As Democrats welcomed their newly minted nominee for Senate at a noisy rally Wednesday, the vanquished senator who's held that seat for nearly two decades quietly sat in a hotel room a few blocks away, surrounded only by a few key advisers.
Many of Sen. Joe Lieberman's strongest political allies have changed camps, celebrating Greenwich millionaire Ned Lamont's 10,000-vote primary victory instead of joining Lieberman's independent campaign for re-election.
But Lieberman, experts say, is firmly the driver's seat in Connecticut's three-way Senate race.
"Unless Ned Lamont can come out with a better package that shows he's more than just a one-issue candidate, in a way that absorbs the more moderate independents, I think it'll be an uphill battle for him," said Christopher Kukk, a political science professor at Western Connecticut State University.
Lieberman on Wednesday filed petitions to run in November as an independent and dismissed his campaign staff, saying he hadn't been aggressive enough in countering Lamont during the primary.
"The bottom line is that I'm definitely in," Lieberman said. "While I consider myself a devoted Democrat, I am even more devoted to my state and my country."
Lieberman replaced his staff with two longtime associates _ Sherry Brown and Dan Gerstein.
Brown, the new campaign manager, is director of Lieberman's Connecticut office and managed three of his Senate campaigns. She takes over for Sean Smith. Gerstein, the new communications director, worked in Lieberman's Washington office for 10 years and is replacing Marion Steinfels.
"I do not blame my staff for my loss on Tuesday, I bear that responsibility," Lieberman said. "But now that we are entering a new and very different phase of the campaign, I wanted to bring in a new team."
Lieberman's decision to run as an independent sets the stage for a three-way race this fall among Lamont, Lieberman and Republican Alan Schlesinger, who has trailed far behind both Democrats in recent polls.
Experts say Lieberman is best situated to tap into Connecticut's huge group of moderate, unaffiliated voters and win in November.
"His vulnerability in the primary was that more left-leaning Democrats were angry about him not being a good 'party' senator," said University of Connecticut public policy professor Kenneth Dautrich. "While it's a liability in the primary, it becomes an asset among independent voters in a general election."
More than 40 percent of the state's voters are not affiliated with a party, a larger block than those registered as Democrats or Republicans, according to state figures.
Kukk said Lieberman is also helped by the fact that he drew strong support at the primary.
While it was not enough to win, it represents another large group of votes _ in addition to the unaffiliated and moderate voters who could throw their support to Lieberman, Kukk said.
Tuesday's primary was Lieberman's first loss in a Connecticut campaign since 1980. He's long been one of Connecticut's most popular Democrats, but was heavily criticized for his support of the Iraq war and a perception that he was too close to the Bush Administration.
The final returns from Tuesday's primary showed Lamont defeating Lieberman 52 percent to 48 percent. But in the general election, Lamont's liberal Democratic views will likely turn away many unaffiliated and Republican voters, Dautrich said.
"For a variety of reasons, I think Lieberman is now in the driver's seat," Dautrich said. "We probably would expect to see Lieberman with a fairly handy lead as the election campaign begins."
The biggest challenge, Dautrich said, will likely be fundraising. Lamont, a multimillionaire who put $4 million of his own money into the primary, will also get donations from traditional Democratic sources.
"The one handicap is he doesn't have the deep pockets that Lamont has," Dautrich said of Lieberman. "Lamont can put his hand in his pocket and come out with a few million bucks, and Lieberman can't do that."
A pre-primary campaign finance report filed with the Federal Election Commission showed that the Lamont campaign had received $4.1 million, of which $2.5 million came from his own funds. He added more money after that, however, and drew more contributions that have not yet been reported.
Lamont's campaign had about $354,000 on hand as of July 27.
Lieberman, by comparison, had raised $8.7 million in contributions _ none from his personal funds _ and had $3.4 million on hand at the end of the reporting period. But having lost the Democratic party nomination, he can also expect to lose donations from party loyalists and their political action committees.
"He is going to have to work hard to raise enough money to get through this," said Scott McLean, chairman of the political science department at Quinnipiac University. "The Democratic establishment is not going to be there in the same way it's always been there for him."
One strategist, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said Lieberman had about $2 million remaining after the primary race against Lamont.
A Quinnipiac University poll released in July showed that 51 percent of likely voters would support Lieberman in a three-way race. That's compared with 27 percent for Lamont and 9 percent for Schlesinger, an attorney who was formerly a lawmaker and mayor.
However, a CBS News/New York Times exit poll of nearly 2,700 voters on Tuesday found that 61 percent said Lieberman should not run as an independent.
Though having both Lieberman and Lamont on the ballot could split the Democratic vote, Schlesinger is not considered a major threat.
His campaign stumbled in July after revelations that he used a fake name to sign up for a "Wampum Card," a membership card that gave him special privileges when he gambled at Foxwoods Resort Casino. He also had been sued over gambling debts at two New Jersey casinos.
"Lieberman has an excellent chance of winning this as long as Alan Schlesinger is still a Wampum card-carrying Republican," McLean said.
Republican Gov. M Jodi Rell urged him to drop out of the Senate race, but Schlesinger called the gambling a "non-issue" and vowed to remain in the race.
Lieberman had already filed paperwork before the primary to create a new party called Connecticut for Lieberman.
Creating a new party allows him to secure a position higher on the ballot than he would have if he petitioned as an individual. He will be fifth on the ballot under the new party, rather than eighth or ninth.
_____
Posted at 08:39 PM
Comments
It is possible that he actually didn't have the money to spend until the thing was over. In the last days of the race, the PAC money and bucks from big-money donors was pouring in. Some of it may have simply come in too late to be spent.
Of course, we are talking about Team Lieberman, who managed to blow a 64-19 lead while outspending the political novice facing them somewhere around 3-1.
JoshA | 08.09.06 09:39 PM
 |
If the latter is true and he can only spend the money in the general, does that mean that he could possibly raise money in the general? Because, Lieberman will only stay in this race if he can raise money.
H. J Enten | 08.09.06 09:44 PM
|
This headline is completely irresponsible and is revisionist history with reference to the 2004 election. As you know, or would know had you done a simple google search, George Bush had TWICE as much left over money than Kerry. Bush had $15.6 million and Kerry had $7.2 million in the accounts. The purpose of the leftover money, as officials from both campaigns have stated--was a recount. The analogy you are making is dishonest and misleading.
I refer you to:
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2005/01/27/kerry_bush_have_leftover_cash.html
and also
http://www.rollcall.com/issues/50_64/news/7906-1.html
Vernon Wells | 08.10.06 06:00 AM
|
Maybe Joe knew he had support coming from very high places?
Roving Independence and ISupportJoe.com – When Karl Rove mixes it up with Becki Donatelli @ Campaign Solutions, what do you get? Maybe a kiss by proxy?!
Five days before the CT primary, registration of key dot com, net, and org, domains for ISupportJoe.
The night Joe Lieberman happily concedes and announces his run as an independent Democrat, ISupportJoe.com shows up briefly on Donatelli’s IP address and then gets moved to a cheap domain hoster for distance from the RNC operative.
ISupportJoe.com – Sealed with a Kiss: Lieberman’s “Roving” Independence at Daily Kos and ePluribusMedia
luaptifer | 08.10.06 07:47 AM
|
Maybe Joe knew he had support coming from very high places?
Roving Independence and ISupportJoe.com – When Karl Rove mixes it up with Becki Donatelli @ Campaign Solutions, what do you get? Maybe a kiss by proxy?!
Five days before the CT primary, registration of key dot com, net, and org, domains for ISupportJoe.
The night Joe Lieberman happily concedes and announces his run as an independent Democrat, ISupportJoe.com shows up briefly on Donatelli’s IP address and then gets moved to a cheap domain hoster for distance from the RNC operative.
ISupportJoe.com – Sealed with a Kiss: Lieberman’s “Roving” Independence at Daily Kos and ePluribusMedia
luaptifer | 08.10.06 01:14 PM
|
As the Senator himself suggests, the problem with the Lieberman campaign was not the campaign, but the candidate.
Patrick Ramage | 08.12.06 11:31 PM
|
Post a comment
The Watergate · 600 New Hampshire Ave., NW
Washington, DC 20037
202-739-8400 · fax 202-833-8069
NationalJournal.com is an Atlantic Media publication.
