September 11, 2006
The Big Five: Hot House Race Updates
A daily update of trends trends and analyses from the hottest House races.
1. Drake's Break?: In VA 02, Rep. Thelma Drake (R) is having a good day, at least in a 9/8 McLaughlin & Associates (R) poll. She's leading VA Beach Commis of Rev Phil Kellam (D) by 7 points (48%-41%) (Hotlinesources ).
2. Social Security Attack: The DCCC won't give restaurateur Mike Whalen (R) a break in IA 01. The new ad calls him "A close ally of President Bush's plan to privatize Social Security" and adds, "Whalen has even considered raising Social Security taxes." He's "wrong on Social Security" (Hotline sources, 9/11).
3. He's The Taxman: State Sen. Pres. Jeff Lamberti (R) airs a new ad in IA 03 attacking Rep. Leonard Boswell (R). Lamberti: That's why I fought to cut taxes for every Iowan to help families and create jobs. My opponent thinks differently. He's voted to raise your taxes over 32 times. I think that's wrong..You can count on me to cut your taxes" (Hotline sources, 9/11).
4. New York State Of Mind: NY may no longer be the big attraction for Dems. The DCCC will soon spend $50M on nationwide ads but the money is not going to NY. For candidates, such as Sen. Hillary Clinton (D), this may not be a big issue but in some CDs, certain Dems aren't too pleased (New York Times).
5. Cole's Goal: Rep. Tom Cole is handing GOPers across OK 04 tipsheets he calls "Winning In a Bad Environment but just what is his motivation? Could the title of NRCC chair be on his horizon? (Roll Call).
Posted at 03:45 PM
Comments
"A poll conducted for a national project called Majority Watch showed Kellam with an 8-percentage-point lead over Drake. The poll sampled 1,021 people in the district Aug. 27 to 29.
Kellam was favored by 51 percent of those surveyed; Drake was favored by 43 percent. The reported margin of error was 3.1 percent."
The GOP sponsored poll is a joke with a double digit margain of error, above is the real poll.
James Martin | 09.11.06 06:03 PM
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The Majority Watch poll was conducted by Constituent Dynamics, which uses automated "robo calls" for its survey. It also surveys "households," not registered voters or, even more reliable, likely voters. This is a notoriously ineffective way to poll. Plus, their polls show no internals, so it should be taken with a grain of salt.
The McLaughlin poll for Drake was a live interview poll of likely voters, which is much more accurate. Given the wildly differing results within a week's time, the safer bet is to go with the live poll of LIKELY VOTERS.
G. Robert | 09.12.06 02:46 PM
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