September 28, 2006

The Big Five: Hot House Race Updates

A daily update of trends and analyses from the hottest House races.

1. Battle-Tested?: Democracy Corps released a study of focus groups in battleground districts.
Key findings: attempts to depict incumbents as puppets of Pres. Bush have largely failed, as many voters consider long-time members, such as Reps. Chris Shays (R-CT 04) and Clay Shaw (R-FL 22), independent operators. What's more, several GOP attack ads have affected voters. The NRCC ad attacking ret. Adm Joe Sestak (D-PA 07) of favoring higher taxes, for example, "resonated broadly." (Hotline sources).

2. No Bargain With Bachmann: In a new MN 06 TV ad, '04 nominee Patty Wetterling (D) attacks state Sen. Michele Bachmann 's (R) tax plans. ANNCR: Bachmann claims she's for lower taxes but she supports a new sales tax that would cost us... 23 percent more at the pump...for groceries and clothing...when you buy a car, or even a new home." However, the ad "doesn't mention that the sales tax would replace" existing federal income and payroll taxes. (Minneapolis Star Tribune).

3. Gerlach Pulling Away?: Two new PA 06 polls show Rep. Jim Gerlach (R) leading atty/'04 nom. Lois Murphy (D). The independent Keystone poll says Gerlach's ahead by 7 points; the poll conducted for the NRCC has him leading by 12.

4. Champagne Corks At The DCCC?: A new DCCC poll in FL 22 shows Rep. Clay Shaw (R) trailing state Sen. Ron Klein's (D) by one point.

Meanwhile, ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani "upped the stakes" 9/27 "arguing that Shaw's re-election is bigger than just one congressional seat." What's more, Giuliani "said he believes" GOP control of Congress "is key to fighting terror," and therefore "feels it vital for the GOP that Shaw hold onto his seat." Yet although Klein has "hammered away at Shaw" on the war in Iraq, the war "has not played a prominent role" in Shaw's campaign (Miami Herald).

5. Write On: As part of "the fight to replace" ex-Rep. Tom DeLay (R) the NRCC's "donating more than" $100K to help Houston councilwoman Shelley Sekula-Gibbs' (R) "get out the vote" efforts. Meanwhile, VP Cheney will host "a Houston fundraiser" next month to help her raise money. (AP/Waco Tribune-Herald ).

Posted at 03:30 PM

Comments

Post a comment