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September 25, 2006

The Big Four: Hot Senate Race Updates

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A daily update of trends and analyses from the hottest Senate races.
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1. Slip-Sliding Away: What type of blue state are Jersey Dems in? In a new independent poll, State sen. Tom Kean's (R) leads Sen. Bob Menendez (D) by six points. Cook Political Report's Jennifer Duffy said of NJ, "scandal has hit a critical mass," and "people associate (Menendez's home of) Hudson County with corruption" (Gannett, 9/24).

2. Smaller Lead Than Last Time, But Brown's Still Feeling Okay: In OH, the ad attacks aren't going away. Sen. Mike DeWine's (R) trailing Rep. Sherrod Brown (D) in a new poll by five points and iIn a new TV ad, Dewine calls Brown "overly partisan" and warns he "even voted for an energy tax which would have cost Ohio 20,000 jobs. Ohio's future is no laughing matter." Meanwhile, Brown says Dewine's merely "bragging" and "giving billions in tax cuts;" Brown "was fighting for the middle-class."

3. Wonders Never Cease: The RNCseems to think Rep. Harold Ford. Jr. (D-09) has crossed the borderline. In a new TV ad, the RNC says Ford "voted 4 times against more funding for border agents and against using troops to help protect our borders... No wonder Harold Ford has been rated the most liberal congressman" from TN. Meanwhile, Ford's campaign changed a few details in its recent ad accusing ex-Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker (R) of hiring illegal immigrants.

4. Racing For The Center: Will the contest between Sen. Jim Talent (R) and '04 GOV nominee/Aud. Claire McCaskill (D) predict how the war in Iraq affects GOPers across the country? It could be "purest test in the country." St. Louis Univ. prof. and pollster Kenneth Warren: "As Missouri goes, so goes the nation." MO is "America's mood mirror," voting "as happily" for Dems or GOPers, "but nearly always for the winner" (San Francisco Chronicle).


Posted at 03:23 PM

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