September 05, 2006
The Florida Primaries
Why was Democratic turnout so much lower than Republican turnout? We estimate that at least 120K more GOPers voted in that party's gubernatorial primary than Democrats did in theirs.
Both primaries were marked by rancor; the GOP primary had more below-the-radar charges of cultural/sexual misconduct. The Dem primary had more outside influences; Big Sugar spent more than $4M on behalf of Dem Rod Smith. In other words, both primaries were equally nasty. (They were also fairly substantive; news cycles often alternated between sleaze and substance.)
One factor that may explain part of it: race (the two wrongfully accused black men) and religion (Jim Davis missing the pro-Israel vote) are two issues that can move -- or dampen -- Dem turnout in FL, depending on context. These trigger points entered into the race late thanks to Big Sugar, but the Dem primary took a much lower profile for a LONG time in terms of both paid and earned media.
The focus was on the "What Happened To Tom Gallagher stoyline for so long that the GOP race became the dominant race (despite being the much less competitive of the two). This, combined with Gallagher’s relentless and sustained focus in both paid and earned media (and Crist’s equally loud response) on the social issues that motivate the GOP base, may explain the higher enthusiasm on GOP side.
Was there an anti-incumbent sentiment? The two powerful GOP state sens targeted by conservatives for challenges -- State Sen. Alex Villalobos and State Sen. Jim King -- both won, although Villalobos's victory margin was narrow.
Or maybe rain in the Democratic parts of the state (Broward and Miami Dade) kept Dem turnout down?
Or maybe Dem primary voters in FL aren't as energized as you might expect. Call it the Jeb glow. The guy appeared in just about every commercial for just about every GOP candidate in the state. GOPers are excited about his legacy. Also, as Republicans like to point out, Dem turnout in primaries nationwide lags Republican turnout.
Posted at 11:25 PM
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