Posted 10.31.06 05:03 PM | Comments (3)

That Sound You Hear...

Is Rahm Emanuel's BlackBerry smashing against cement.

Posted 10.31.06 04:05 PM | Comments (5)

Bush Slams Kerry Over Troop Comments

Questions:

By making himself an issue, did Sen. John Kerry do the GOP a favor by giving them an issue to motivate their base? (Independents may not care, but the base hates Kerry... hates him.)

If Kerry is happy to let America know that he's not going to take sleights, are Democrats happy to have Kerry in the spotlight seven days before the election?

Couldn't Kerry have taken care of this imbroglio by admitting that he mangled his words?

Is it smart for any Democrat right now to take the spotlight? Shouldn't the Dems want to keep the spotlight solely and totally on Bush and Iraq?

Does Kerry know how and when to pick his battles? Should Kerry respond to every ant bite with a gun?

Does Kerry have to respond to every Republican who picks on him... even at the expense of Democratic message unity?

Do Republicans really believe that Kerry wasn't talking about Pres. Bush? (We believe that Kerry was referring to Bush because he's used a similar formulation in our presence before and quite clearly meant to call Bush a dummy.)

Aren't Republicans being a bit intellectually dishonest by taking Kerry out of context?

How many news cycles will this cost the Democrats?

Do independents associate Kerry with “strength?”

Will bloggers -- smart and pragmatic -- come to Kerry's defense?

Will the media treat Kerry fairly enough to report on his comments fairly?

Do Republicans want to refight '04 about Iraq?

Here's what Pres. Bush is supposed to say this afternoon:

.....I cannot tell you how proud I am to be the Commander-in-Chief of such incredibly brave men and women who have volunteered to wear the uniform of the United State s. And even in the midst of a heated campaign season, there are still some things we should all be able to agree on – and one of the most important is that every one of our troops deserves our gratitude – and respect. Yesterday Democrat Senator John Kerry was speaking to a group of young people in California, and gave them this advice, quote: “You know education, if you make the most of it, you study hard, you do your homework, and you make an effort to be smart, you can do well. If you don’t you get stuck in Iraq.”

The Senator’s suggestion that the men and women of our military are somehow uneducated is insulting and shameful. Our troops did not enlist because they did not study hard in school or do their homework. The men and women who serve in our all-volunteer Armed Forces are plenty smart and are serving because they are patriots – and Senator Kerry owes them an apology.

Whatever party you belong to, whatever you think about the war in Iraq, we should all agree that our troops deserve our unwavering support. And when it comes to supporting our men and women in uniform, I don’t have any doubt where Mac Collins is going to land. He is a strong supporter of the military. And he knows what I know: Any time you have American troops in harm’s way, they have the right to expect the full support of the American government.

Posted 10.31.06 03:38 PM | Comments (41)

Today On Hotline TV: Betting The House

...And the Senate, and some Governor's mansions. We'll tell you which bets to take in your office pool.

Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!

Posted 10.31.06 03:30 PM | Comments (0)

Bloggers Make Campaign Payroll

Bloggers paid by campaigns were a rarity two years ago -- so rare that their work and their ethics, whether for Republicans or Democrats, became fodder for controversy. Bloggers on the campaign dime (and off) have been even more controversial this year, but that is at least in part because there are so many more of them.

Pay scales range from a few hundred dollars a month to a few thousand, with some of the bloggers earning top dollar.

With increasing frequency, candidates across the country are paying bloggers to write, develop Web sites, connect with energetic allies on the Internet, respond to online critics, and advise their employers about how to behave in the blogosphere. Others are paid to do more traditional campaign work like communications consulting and opposition research.

Their pay scales range from a few hundred dollars a month to a few thousand, with some of the bloggers earning top dollar for their expertise. [K. DANIEL GLOVER]

Continue Reading "Bloggers Make Campaign Payroll"

Posted 10.31.06 03:10 PM | Comments (1)

Republicans Say They're Sorry

How nervous are GOPers, one week out? Just ask the candidates, at least 3 of whom are running new TV ads acknowledging the uphill challenges they face 11/7.

"People tell me, Linc, I really like you, but I want to send Bush a message," Sen. Lincoln Chafee admits in a new ad. "I've always stood for principle, even if it meant standing alone."

MN SEN candidate Mark Kennedy closes his new MN SEN ad on nat'l security by saying, "I approve this message, even though I know it may not be what you want to hear."

In OR GOV, Ron Saxton tries to dance toward his state's anti-GOP middle. "National politics are a mess, and I'm as angry as you are. But this election is about Oregon, and change," he says. "I'm a Republican, but I'll be with my party when it's right, and against it when it's wrong."

While many campaigns are closing dirty, these GOP ads in blue states take a different tack. Underdogs, they're pleading with voters to ignore nat'l dynamics and focus on the face on their TV screens. Will it succeed? Perhaps. But why is it voters don't get ads like this, which pitch the "honesty" value only when that candidate is trailing, perhaps, trailing badly?

Posted 10.31.06 02:15 PM | Comments (0)

Diebold V. HBO

A new HBO documentary on electronic voting, Hacking Democracy, is drawing fire from Diebold Election Systems. Hacking Democracy premiers 11/2 at 9:00 ET.

The film draws on the research of many heroes of the ballot integrity movement -- self-described Seattle grandmother and researcher Bev Harris, John Hopkins U prof. Avi Rubin, and Harri Hursti, who publicly demonstrated how easy it was to hack into a Diebold machine.

From the HBO preview:

"Ultimately, Bev Harris' research proved that the top-secret computerized systems counting the votes in America's public elections are not only fallible, but also vulnerable to undetectable hacking, from local school board contests to the presidential race. With the electronic voting machines of three companies - Diebold, ESS and Sequoia - collectively responsible for around 80 percent of America's votes today, the stakes for democracy are high."

Suffice it to say, the doc isn't friendly to Diebold.

So Diebold, working with the Beltway PR giant Edelman, is trying to cast doubt on the credibility of the content in the film.

Diebold president Dave Byrd sent a letter 10/30 to HBO chairman Chris Albrecht demanding that factual inaccuracies be corrected by the time of broadcast and that HBO append a 30 second disclaimer to the start of the film. Specifically, Diebold claims that the company is blamed for conduct in elections run by other companies' machines; that the Harri Hursti experiment was "a complete sham," and that documentary overstates Diebold's market share.

"The material errors and material misrepresentations are so egregious that HBO should pull the documentary," Byrd writes.

Posted 10.31.06 01:02 PM | Comments (3)

The Hotline's Hot Senate Race Updates

Updated Race Rankings: House **** Senate **** Governors

According to two sources familiar with ad placements, the NRSC indie expenditure cmte has bought TV ad time in two Maryland markets, Baltimore and Salisbury, for a cost of approx. $470K. So far, the I.E. has not bought time in the DC market. (Hotline)

Bernadette Budde, the whip-smart senior vice president at BIPAC, thinks the MO Senate race will wind up being the closest in the country and may keep us up all night on 11/7. (C-SPAN watching)

In TN, ex-Sen. Fred Thompson cut an ad for Bob Corker. Thompson: "My dad brought me here (to the Ryman) a long time ago to see Hank Williams, Sr. Been coming back ever since. A Tennessee Tradition. Reminds me of this Senate race and who we trust to fight for the things we believe in, appoint good judges, and keep the reins on government. Well, for me it's Bob Corker. I've known Bob for a long time, and he's a man of integrity who will do what's right. The Senate sure could use a man like Bob Corker. Believe me, I know." CORKER: "I'm Bob Corker and I've approved this message" (release, 10/30).

In VA, Independent Green Party cand. Gail Parker "this week ... seems to be walking a tight rope between staying in and dropping out" of the race. Parker: "It's impossible for me to drop out. My name is on the ballot and will be on the ballot. We are talking or trying to open up lines of communication with the other candidates. Because I was shut out of the debates, they haven't heard my message." When "pressed about whether reports of her dropping out were a publicity stunt" she "was evasive." (Francis, DC Examiner, 10/31).

Posted 10.31.06 12:30 PM | Comments (0)

Daily Troika: McCain Slams Kerry For Troops Comment

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) wants an apology from Sen. John Kerry for comments the '04 Dem nominee made yesterday in CA that appeared to suggest that U.S. troops were not hard-working and intelligent.

Kerry, on 10/30: "You know education, if you make the most of it, you study hard, you do your homework, and you make an effort to be smart, you can do well. And if you don't you get stuck in Iraq."

McCain, in Indianapolis today campaigning for Republicans, calls Kerry's remarks "insensitive, ill-considered" and "unfortunate." More, from McCain's statement: "The suggestion that only the least educated Americans would agree to serve in the military and fight in Iraq, is an insult to every soldier serving in combat, and should deeply offend any American with an ounce of appreciation for what they suffer and risk so that the rest of us can sleep more comfortably at night." More from McCain: "Senator Kerry owes an apology to the many thousands of Americans serving in Iraq, who answered their country's call because they are patriots and not because of any deficiencies in their education."

A Kerry adviser said that Kerry was referring to the general intellectual abilities of Pres. Bush and not U.S. troops. The quotation, the adviser admits, came out slightly "mangled."

Late 10/30, Kerry issued a response to criticism from WH press. sec. Tony Snow: "If anyone thinks a veteran would criticize the more than 140,000 heroes serving in Iraq and not the president who got us stuck there, they're crazy. This is the classic G.O.P. playbook. I'm sick and tired of these despicable Republican attacks that always seem to come from those who never can be found to serve in war, but love to attack those who did."

Kerry aide David Wade: "When will John McCain ask his new Republican best friends George Bush and Dick Cheney to apologize for misleading America into war and giving us a Katrina foreign policy that has betrayed our ideals, killed and maimed our soldiers, and widened the terrorist threat instead of defeating it? John McCain's neoconservative pals are afraid to debate veterans who live and breathe the concerns of our troops, not the empty slogans of an Administration that sent our brave troops to war without body armor."

GOP bloggers and party officials are sending around a videotape of Kerry in the hopes that it will rally conservatives.

McCain plans to repeat his statement on camera in Indianapolis at 1:00 pm ET (Hotline)

Squibs:

Posted 10.31.06 12:00 PM | Comments (12)

Barbs and Jabs: See How They Run (Away From Bush)

Debate highlights from OH 15 (featuring an actual "your mother" insult, New Jersey SEN (corruption, corruption, orruption), IL 06 (sniping about immigration) and TN SEN, featuring Ford V. Corker. Plus: a montage of Republicans running away from Pres. Bush.

Posted 10.31.06 11:11 AM | Comments (0)

Natural Tightening Doesn't Equal Momentum

Our Hotline Spotlight from 10/30:

There are more polls out today, it seems, than there are races to poll, many showing races on the move. But which contests are "closing," and which candidates are heading into their final week with real Mo'?

It's a subtle distinction, but a crucial one as we try, just 8 days out, to gauge the state of play. Some races are simply closing, as undecideds come home to their natural leanings. In NJ, where voters usually break late for Dems, Menendez has opened up a small lead. In MN, an increasingly competitive blueish-purple state, Klobuchar has seen her huge advantage shrink slightly.

Elsewhere, candidates are gaining momentum. Following Cubin's missteps, Dem Trauner is now locked in a dead heat in WY AL. Dems cite SEN tracking polls that show VA's Webb and TN's Ford, boosted by backlash, pulling ahead. (#20)

Sometimes, it's both momentum and closing. Burns, for example, is showing signs of life in MT SEN, which could stem from the red state's natural leanings and a surge from a barrage of anti-Tester ads. Can the NRSC's cash infusion stir real momentum there?

Posted 10.31.06 10:23 AM | Comments (2)

Tea Leaf Watch: 7 Days Out

Words of the day: natural tightening.

Leaves:

1. Charlie Cook: "With the election just eight days away, there are no signs that this wave is abating. Barring a dramatic event, we are looking at the prospect of GOP losses in the House of at least 20 to 35 seats, possibly more, and at least four in the Senate, with five or six most likely. If independents vote in fairly low numbers, as is customary in midterm elections, losses in the House will be on the lower end of that range. But if they turn out at a higher than normal level, their strong preference for Democrats in most races would likely push the GOP House losses to or above the upper levels."

2. The GOP reported more than 2 million voter contacts over the past four days, exceeding their expectations. (Hotline sources)

3. The GOP claims early voting successes in IA, NM and FL -- the Dems dispute this.

4. Cook changes the following seats to toss-ups: AZ 05 (Hayworth), CA 11 (Pombo), CO 04 (Musgrave), CO 05 (Open, KS 02 (Ryun), MN 01 (Gutknecht), NH 02 (Bass), OH O2 (Schmidt), WY Al (Cubin). CA 50 (Bilbray) and NE 03 (Open) have been downgraded to "Lean Republican." and IA 01 has been rated "Lean Democrat."

5. Pres. Bush's campaign schedule in the final stretch does not inspire confidence: he'll campaign for Ryun in Kansas and for Marilyn Musgrave in CO 04.

6. Two Research 2000 polls for the New London Day and the Manchester Journal Inquirer show Rep. Chris Shays (R) trailing Diane Farrell (D) 47%-43% in CT 04, and Rep. Nancy Johnson (R) behind state Sen. Chris Murphy (D) 46%-43% in CT 05 (release).

7. John Podhoretz "If the House is controlled by only a few seats, the coming election cycles could feature control of Congress flipping between parties every two years. This will surely affect the behavior of individual Congressmen and a change in the tone in the House."

8. Does Michael Barone sound like a confident conservative to you? " I don't know what the results of the midterm elections of 2006 will be. But I doubt that they will have the sweeping partisan or policy consequences of the midterm elections of 1874 and 1894, or 1938 and 1994."

Posted 10.31.06 10:00 AM | Comments (0)

HRH Extra: Rolling 3s

How confident is the DCCC feeling?

So much that they’re airing ads in one of the most conservative districts in the country, Nebraska’s 3rd District. The open-seat district voted 75% for President Bush in ’04 – his eighth highest total nationwide. But Club for Growth-endorsed state senator Adrian Smith (R) has struggled on the campaign trail, and is trailing rancher Scott Kleeb (D) in a Democratic-sponsored poll -- outside the margin of error.

Even if Democrats don’t win here, the fact that they’re spending money in such a ruby red district indicates how they feel about their chances Election Night.

They’re also spending money in bellwether districts where the Democratic nominees have been weaker than in past cycles. Rep. Jon Porter (R-NV 03) has spent over $2 million against first-time candidate Tessa Hafen (D), who just turned 30. But he’s been has been laying low on the campaign trail, especially amid charges of illegal fundraising from his campaign office.

And Rep. Anne Northup (R-KY 03) usually faces tough re-election campaigns, but thought she had a breather when the Democrats nominated alt-weekly publisher John Yarmuth (D). He has been an oppo-researchers’ dream because he’s written many controversial columns throughout his career. But because of the national and statewide environment, he’s kept within striking distance and now will be getting a boost from the DCCC.

Democrats are rolling the dice in three 3rd Districts. On Election Night, we’ll see if their gamble pays off. [JOSH KRAUSHAAR]

Posted 10.31.06 09:12 AM | Comments (0)

Polls Show Better News For GOPers

A new round of CNN/Opinion Research polls in five states show Dems leading in 3 of 5 top races and tied in one. Looks like Missouri is the Dems' 51st seat and the GOPers' firewall. The results, of between 500-600 LVs per state (margin of error +/- 4.4% to 4%):

MISSOURI

Sen. Jim Talent (R)                 49%
Aud. Claire McCaskill (D)           49

NEW JERSEY

Sen. Bob Menendez (D)               51%
State Sen. Tom Kean (R)             44

OHIO

Rep. Sherrod Brown (D)              54%
Sen. Mike DeWine (R)                43

TENNESSEE

Ex-Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker (R) 52%
Rep. Harold Ford (D)                44

VIRGINIA

Ex-Navy Sec. Jim Webb (D)           50%
Sen. George Allen (R)               46

Posted 10.31.06 08:50 AM | Comments (13)

Hotline After Dark -- The FNC GOTV Edition

One week out, lots of good interviews:

Pres. Bush sat down with FNC's Hannity:

On the midterms: "You know, in 2002, a lot of the pundits didn't get the off-year elections right. In 2004, a lot of people thought I was going down eight days before the election. And in 2006, there is a lot of predictors saying that, you know, the Democrats will sweep the House and maybe take the Senate. And I just don't see it that way."

Hannity: "You've been a big target of the Democrats, as you know -- some of the rhetoric has been really harsh. Let me give you some examples and get your reaction to it. Nancy Pelosi, you're mentally unstable. Harry Reid called you a loser in front of schoolchildren. Ted Kennedy has called you're a liar. He's said you concocted the war for political gain. Al Gore screamed at the top of his lungs that you betrayed your country. When you hear that -- these are the leaders, the prominent leaders of the Democrats -- does that offend you? Does that bother you? What does that say to you?"

Bush: "First of all, I believe I've made the right decisions. And, therefore, I don't let those screeches bother me. It's sad that we can't have a civil discourse in the midst of historic times. You know, the president has got to make decisions, and these folks know why I made the decisions I've made. And, you know, I'm sorry that politics has gotten to that point. I'm not the first president, however, that has been -- you know, that they've called names, and I won't be the last."

On Dems talking about their Iraq vote: "People made their votes on Saddam Hussein based upon the same intelligence as I had and that my judgment is you stand by your vote and you stand by your principles. ... But this notion about trying to chase public opinion is just not how you can make good, sound decisions. One man who stood by his decision is Joe Lieberman. He understands the consequences. And the Democrat Party ran him out of the party because he stood on principle."

Asked if he's supporting Lieberman: "I am studiously staying away from that race."

On "stay the course": "Well, what I meant was, 'Don't leave before the job is done.' But in my line of work, words always get, you know, kind of put in different contexts and, you know, I guess they use words to suit their purposes" ("Hannity & Colmes," 10/30).

AND NOW, YOUR NUMBER TWO

VP Cheney sat down with FNC's Cavuto:

Cavuto: "Do you think, though, that the insurgents are better at these polls than even we are, that they are reading them and seeing frustration growing with the war, and, regardless of the good economy, saying: Let's keep up the attacks; let's keep up the pressure?"

Cheney: "It's my belief that they're very sensitive of the fact that we have got an election scheduled. And, you know, they can get on the Web sites like anybody else. There isn't anything that's on the Internet that's not accessible to them. They're on it all the time. They're very sophisticated users of it. And I do believe that that's a part of it. I think we have also seen, of course, a higher level of violence because of Ramadan. Traditionally, there's a spike about this time of year, in terms of level of activity."

On Lynne Cheney's CNN interview: "I thought it was great. We refer to it around the house as the 'slap-down.' And she was very tough, but she was very accurate and very aggressive. And, of course, she was in the business for a while. There was a time, on that network, when she used to host the show they had on for a long time called 'Crossfire,' on Sundays for a couple of years. So, she spoke her mind, and I thought it was perfectly appropriate."

More: "I told her I thought it was a sterling performance."

Asked about the film "Death of a President": "I haven't seen it."

Cavuto: "What's interesting is how you're portrayed, though. The president is killed, and you are on a vindictive witch-hunt that takes you across the Middle East, namely, to Syria -- not too good, not too -- I don't know the best way to put it -- complimentary. What do you think of that?"

Cheney: "I haven't seen it. I'm reluctant to even comment on it."

Cavuto: "But does your image in the press and the fact that, you know, the way you're parodied, and the way you're looked at in the media in general, does it ever bug you? Or does Lynne -- we're in your wife's office now -- ever say: I don't like that at all; they're not being fair to you?"

Cheney: "No, I think the family has adjusted over the years. It goes with the turf. I sometimes listen to Don Imus in the morning on the grounds that, whatever is going to happen to me during the day, it can't be as bad as what's been said about me first thing in the morning while I'm shaving. You need to have a thick skin in this business. I say what I think, and do everything I can to support the president and do the right thing" ("Your World," 10/30).

He also sat down with CNBC's Kudlow. Most of the discussion focused on business issues.

On the midterms: "I'm optimistic. ... I think we've been picking up speed here in the last couple of weeks. We did very well, I think, back in September, then we slowed down, obviously, and ran into some issues that were a distraction. But I sense we're back on track now. I've done 115, 116 campaigns so far this year. And I'm going back out on the road again this week. I think we will hold the House and hold the Senate. We may lose a few seats along the way, but I think that it's going to be a surprisingly strong year for Republicans" ("Kudlow & Company," 10/30).

HUNTING FOR VOTES

Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-CA) was in the "Situation Room" to discuss his WH run:

Asked about reports he's announcing now because he's afraid Dems will take control of Congress: "I think that's nuts. I mean if you announce ahead of the elections, people will question it. If you announce after the elections, then they'll say, well, you tried to get a consolation prize. I just do what I always do."

Asked if he would take the Defense Sec. job if offered: "No. I think Don Rumsfeld, our longest serving defense secretary in the history of this country, is doing an outstanding job. And I think what Americans realize ... it's just a tough job. He's revamping the military all the way through. He's got wars in two theaters. He's got a two-and-a-half million man Army and National Guard and Marine Corps and Air Force and Navy. This is a tough job. It's heavy lifting. But we're spreading freedom and we're not in any worse shape than we were during the cold war, when lots of people said you're going in the wrong direction" (CNN, 10/30).

Hunter discussed immigration issues on "Lou Dobbs Tonight" and also played "Hardball":

Hunter: "I think I can win this thing. And remember, I haven't announced. What I said is, I'm making preparations to run. The second announcement comes later so you can get a second press conference, or course."

Asked if he's a Bush GOPer: "Call me a Reagan Republican" (MSNBC, 10/30).

BACK AT YOU

And CNN's Blitzer said of his Lynne Cheney interview: "I just want to correct the record. We did not sandbag Mrs. Cheney, she knew full well that we would be asking her serious political questions in addition to those questions that we asked her about her new children's book that was reaffirmed with her staff only hours before the interview. In fact, every time she has come to do an interview with me in recent years about children's books, she always agrees to answer serious questions, and she did as well this time" ("Situation Room," 10/30).

TALK TIME

TV's doing fewer candidate profiles and more candidate interviews:

• NBC's Reid profiled PA SEN for the "Nightly News."
• Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA) in the "Situation Room" talked about the Casey ads tying him to Bush: "That 98 percent figure I think has been in almost every single ad he's run. So, he obviously believes that, you know, tying me to the president, even though, you know, that 98 percent is based only on 21 percent of the votes I cast. And, if you look at Senator Specter, he has almost a 90 percent voting record out of that index" (CNN, 10/30).
• Rep. Harold Ford Jr. (D-TN) was on "Tucker" as where MD SEN candidates Michael Steele (R) and Ben Cardin (D) in separate interviews.
• CNN's Crowley profiled MO SEN for "Lou Dobbs Tonight."

Posted 10.31.06 07:20 AM | Comments (0)

October 30, 2006

The Hotline's Hot House Race Updates

1. Friends In Low Places: The NRCC's launching several new TV ads in contested districts, including: CO 05, NV 03, WY AL and NY 29. Meanwhile, the DCCC has ad buys in KS 02 and KY 02.

2. Neck-And-Neck: In IL 06, a Richard Day Research poll; conducted 10/16-22 for the Arlington Heights Daily Herald; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 10/29). Tested: State Sen. Peter Roskam (R) and Iraq war vet Tammy Duckworth (D).

General Election Matchup            Fav/Unfav
Roskam               46%            Duckworth        41%/40%
Duckworth            42             Roskam           40 /34
Other/undec          12

Tighter Than We Thought: In IL 06, a Richard Day Research poll; conducted 10/16-22 for the Arlington Heights Daily Herald; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 10/29). Tested: Rep. Melissa Bean (D) and businessman David McSweeney (R).

General Election Matchup            Fav/Unfav
Bean                 42%            Bean             43%/36%
McSweeney            39             McSweeney        39 /35
Other/undec          19

3. Kleeb Up In One-Day Poll: A Penn Schoen & Berland (D) poll; conducted 10/29 in NE 03 for rancher Scott Kleeb (D); surveyed 404 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 10/30). Tested: Kleeb and State Sen. Adrian Smith (R).

General Election Matchup
             All Dem GOP Ind
Kleeb        46% 80% 21% 55%
Smith        40  12  62  29
Other/undec  14   8  16  16

4. Talking Out Of Class: Rep. Tim Murphy's (R) past and present staffers say he "has mixed campaign activities and official government work in a manner" that violates House rules. Allegations include using his Mt. Lebanon office for campaign activities, instructing "taxpayer paid" staffers to carry campaign materials "at all times...for constituents," making "unpaid interns" go door-to-door to "homes of registered voters" and advising staffers "to devote their time to labeling, stuffing and mailing greeting cards to individuals who were campaign contributors" to Murphy. Scheduler Jayne O'Shaughnessy: "I see someone in a very high office taking advantage of people and situations, and it's wrong."

Yet Murphy "neither denied nor confirmed" the allegations. Murphy: "While it's interesting that these concerns have been raised one week before the election... I will cooperate." Although Telecom exec. Chad Kluko (D) has instructed his own staff "not to pursue the allegations of questionable ethics," it was Kluko's ex-campaign manager, Marty Marks, who informed the Post-Gazette about the allegations a week ago (Pittsburgh Post-Gazette).

Posted 10.30.06 04:00 PM | Comments (0)

Today On Hotline TV: Hit That Bandwagon

We're jumping on bandwagons and calling some races, all in preparation for our huge prediction show on Friday. Check out the warm-ups.

Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!

Posted 10.30.06 03:15 PM | Comments (0)

The Hotline's Hot Senate Race Updates

1. NRSC Back In?: Although the last time the NRSC aired an ad for Sen. Conrad Burns (R) was 8/06, a new poll shows he has closed the gap on state Senate Pres. Jon Tester. According to a Hotline source, the NRSC has purchased $300K -- 1500-1800 GRPs per market -- of I.E. in MT.

Washington Post Columnist Robert Novak writes: "Burns made a personal appeal" to the WH for a late TV buy. "Help was promised after new polls showed Burns had cut into his previous double-digit deficit" (10/28).

2. Webb Leads, According To Dem Poll:In VA, a Garin Hart Yang Research Group (D) poll; conducted 10/26-29 for the DSCC; surveyed 811 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.5% (release, 10/30). Tested: Sen. George Allen (R) and ex-Navy Sec. Jim Webb (D). Note: "W/Lnrs" denotes leaners included.

General Election Matchup
                 All W/Lnrs
Webb             43%   47%
Allen            38    43
Other/undec      19    10

3. Backlash? Ford Polling Indicates It : In TN, a Benenson Strategy Group (D) poll; conducted 10/26-28 for Rep. Harold Ford (D); surveyed 560 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.1% (Hotline sources, 10/30). Tested: Ford and ex-Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker (R).

General Election Matchup            Fav/Unfav      Now
             Now 10/14 9/21         Ford         52%/40%
Ford         48%  46%  48%          Corker       45 /44
Corker       43   45   41
Other/undec   9    9   11

4. If She Wins, Will McCaskill Be Gilmour's Girl?:In MO, a Research 2000 poll; conducted 10/23-26 for the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and KMOV-TV; surveyed 800 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.5% (release, 10/29). Tested: Sen. Jim Talent (R), Aud. Claire McCaskill (D) and frequent candidate Frank Gilmour (L). Geographic abbreviations: STL is St. Louis. Sub is the St. Louis suburbs. KCM is Kansas City. N/S is the Northern and Southeastern regions of the state. General Election Matchup

             All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk STL Sub
McCaskill    47% 88%  7% 46% 43% 51% 42% 81% 78% 51%
Talent       47   6  89  45  50  44  54   5  16  44  
Gilmour       2  --   2   4   3   1   2  --   1   2   
Other/undec   4   6   2   5   4   4   2  14   4   3   

Fav/Unfav      Now    8/31
McCaskill    51%/44% 50%/41%
Talent       50 /45  49 /45
Gilmour      16 / 7   8 / 5

Posted 10.30.06 01:46 PM | Comments (2)

'06 Imponderable Of The Day

Given how treacherous Indiana is for the GOP right, might not Tim Roemer (D) have Sen. Dick Lugar on the ropes right now?

Posted 10.30.06 10:33 AM | Comments (0)

HPN: Tie In TX 22?

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliaites

Quorum Report -- Tie In TX 22? Write-ins get 35%, Lampson gets 36%

JohnCombest.com -- Medicare Is Hot Issue In MO Senate Race

Sayfie's Review -- Second Crist-Davis Debate Tonight

Capitol Fax -- Despite bankruptcy threats, ILans still want freeze

WisPolitics.com -- Doyle Leads In Public Polls But Hasn't Closed The Deal

NHNewslinks.com -- Hodes, Bass Offer Sharp Contrast On Iraq

Posted 10.30.06 10:18 AM | Comments (0)

The Daily Troika: Et Tu, Duncan?

The world -- well, Fox News -- is abuzz with the news that the chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, Duncan Hunter (R-CA) plans to announce at 2:00 pm ET that he might run for president in 2008.

Hunter told Fox News Channel Sunday, "I'm going to make an announcement about a national campaign in '08." He didn't elaborate, other than to say it would be made from the waterfront "where I started my humble career in 1980."

If he opens an exploratory account today, he can raise money while he's still the chairman of the powerful committee.

The Club For Growth's Andy Roth notes his "protectionism" streak. SC Hotline's Joshua Gross, a former Hunter aide, speculates on what type of campaign his ex-boss might run, and who some of his SC friends might be.

Squibs

Does he run as a Tancredo-esque strong borders advocate? Does he position himself as the race's only true conservative? Has anyone in the party urged him to run? Has anyone in the party told him how bad it looks to announce something like this a week before his party may get a shellacking?

Posted 10.30.06 08:48 AM | Comments (0)

House Race Hotline Update: Bass Fishing

Updated Race Rankings: House **** Senate **** Governors

The NRCC just spent $365K on an ad in Rep. Charlie Bass' (R-NH 02) CD. Their last-minute buy suggests GOPers have newfound concerns about holding onto Bass' seat.

Bass is running in a Dem-leaning CD, but he's increased his margins of victory each cycle. He's distanced himself from the GOP in ads while criticizing wasteful spending. But atty. Paul Hodes (D), in his second run, has relentlessly attacked Bass over the war in Iraq.

They each have opposite problems. Hodes has gotten traction for his strident criticism of Bass, but that's his only claim-to-fame. Polls show many voters still don't know much about him. Hodes' ads have also lacked the production quality of other funded candidates. But Bass hasn't spent time responding to Hodes, preferring to highlight his own record.

The DCCC is now going up with a sizable ad buy of their own, and their internal polling suggests the race is tied. Meanwhile, John McCain and Laura Bush are providing Bass with last-minute help.

Will all politics be local, or will the GOP label be too costly for Bass this time? [JOSH KRAUSHAAR]

Posted 10.30.06 08:15 AM | Comments (0)

October 29, 2006

Special Sunday Brunch -- 9 Days To Go

A quick rundown of can't miss Sunday developments

• This week's Newsweek poll continues to show Dems in a strong position but the poll also found some small movements toward the GOP. Dems led the generic ballot among LVs 53-39% and among RVs, the Dems led 49-38%. Last week, the Dems' generic ballot lead in this poll was 18 points. And for the third poll in a row, Pres. Bush's job rating inched up two points to 37%. Also of note from the poll: 55% of RVs say they've seen the stem-cell TV ad starring Michael J. Fox; 62% of those who saw believe the ad was "acceptable" while 32% said the ad was "too extreme."

• Have the Dems caught up to the GOP in terms of GOTV? Some Dems believe so, others are skeptical. NYT's Nagourney has the details. BTW. check out the "snow bird" GOTV effort being made in FL 22.

• DCCC sent a release late Saturday proclaiming the following: "Iraq to dominate the final days of the campaign." From the release: “In the final week of this campaign, individual Republican support for the war in Iraq will be central to the closing argument against them." The release then listed a dozen GOP candidates they planned to target on the issue.

• L.A. Times' Hamburger and Wallsten write on Karl Rove's last minute tactics: "Rove is giving a virtuoso performance designed to prevent the Democrats from taking control of the House and Senate or, if that is no longer possible, to hold down the size of the Democratic victory to make it easier for the GOP to come back in 2008. His plan is three-pronged: to reenergize any conservatives who may be flagging; to make sure the GOP's carefully constructed campaign apparatus is functioning at peak efficiency; and to put the resources of the federal government to use for political gain." This piece does not mention that the authors of this piece also have a book titled "One Party Country The Republican Plan for Dominance in the 21st Century."

• Bush: L.A. Times' Brownstein writes on Bush's campaign war-time rhetoric and notes that unlike his wartime POTUS predecessors, Bush accentuates the differences to a greater degree. ... Yesterday, Bush campaigned in IN 09 with Rep. Mike Sodrel, the one Indiana GOPer the party believes is the most savable.

• Did we know Judith Miller was back in Iraq?

• Joe Biden's back in Iowa this week, campaigning with IA 02 Dem nominee Dave Loebsack in Cedar Rapids on Tuesday, 10/31.

• CT SEN: The New York Times endorses Ned Lamont arguing that Joe Lieberman hasn't shown a "capacity" to grow and change.

• MD SEN/MD GOV: Don't be surprised if the GOP tries to push back hard on today's Washington Post poll showing Dems Ben Cardin and Martin O'Malley sporting double-digit leads over Michael Steele and Bob Ehrlich respectively. The last time the Post polled Maryland, some complained the poll over-sampled African-Americans.

• MO SEN: The DSCC is up with two new I.E. ads (ad 1 and ad 2)both of a populist/jobs nature. Can someone say, "Reagan Democrats"? Meanwhile, a new Research 2000 poll for the St. Louis Post-Dispatch has the race tied, not "basically" tied, but "actually" tied at 47%.

• MT SEN: According to Bob Novak, Sen. Conrad Burns (R) made a "personal appeal" to the WH for the party to come back in to help him.

• NJ SEN: A Research 2000 poll conducted for the Bergen Record has Dem Bob Menendez leading GOPer Tom Kean Jr. 48-42%.

• TN SEN: Ah, Facebook. Remember the Bob Corker daughter who was caught in a, um, interesting pose? Well, one local columnist wonders if this is now fair game considering where this race between Harold Ford Jr. and Corker has gone recently.

• KS 02: Dice roll? The DCCC is up with its first ads in against Rep. Jim Ryun (R).

• LA 02: Remember embattled Rep. Bill Jefferson (D-LA 02)? If his chief foe's polling is correct, he's headed for a runoff. State Rep. Karen Carter's campaign released a poll (conducted by Brilliant Corners) showing her and Jefferson tied at 25%. And in a runoff matchup, she led Jefferson by 20 points.

• CO GOV: Could Bill Ritter lead to a clean sweep of every statewide office? Right now, only the incumbent/appointed GOP AG is leading (but is polling at just 42%).

• ID GOV: Shocker! A Mason-Dixon poll has the GOV race "basically" even with GOP Rep. Butch Otter up by just a point over '02 Dem nominee Jerry Brady. In the hot open House seat, the GOPer leads by just 2 points.

• IL GOV: Another Blagojevich scandal... really? A new Research 2000 poll conducted for the St. Louis Post-Dispatch has Blagojevich up 9 points over GOPer Judy Baar Topinka despite having upside down favorable ratings. How unhappy are IL voters with their GOV choices? The little-known indie candidate is polling in double digits!

• IA GOV: Des Moines Register endorses Dem Chet Culver.

• MA GOV: Worst kept secret in Boston? The Globe endorses Deval Patrick

• NV GOV: If it's possible, things are getting weirder in this race. Now GOP Rep. Jim Gibbons, "accused by a Las Vegas cocktail waitress of assaulting and propositioning her, said Saturday he'd be willing to take a polygraph if needed to prove his innocence," according to an AP report.

• TX GOV: Gov. Rick Perry (R), while polling under 40%, still has a double-digit lead in a new Houston Chronicle/Zogby Int'l phone poll. Perry has 38% to Chris Bell's (D) 22% and Carole Strayhorn's (I) 21%. Kinky Friedman registers with just 11%.

Posted 10.29.06 09:30 AM | Comments (0)

October 28, 2006

The Saturday Brunch

Latest NRCC TV Buys…..Hastert on the “clear” choice….Negron notice back up in FL 16…. Bush’s election week schedule….

Updated Race Rankings: House **** Senate **** Governors

WHAT'S BREWING

SENATE RACES

HOUSE RACES

GOVERNORS RACES

Posted 10.28.06 10:22 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

October 27, 2006

Lynne Cheney, Steamy Lesbian Love, and Jim Webb

Lynne Cheney was in the "Situation Room" this afternoon and was asked about Jim Webb's comments that her books contain explicit sexual descriptions:

Cheney: "Jim Webb is full of baloney. I have never written anything sexually explicit. His novels are full of sexual explicit references to incest, sexually explicit references -- well, you know, I just don't want my grandchildren to turn on the television set. This morning, Imus was reading from the novels, and it's triple-X rated."

CNN's Blitzer: "Here's what the Democratic Party put out today, the Democratic Congressional -- Senatorial Campaign Committee: 'Lynne Cheney's book featured brothels and attempted rape. In 1981, Vice President Dick Cheney's wife, Lynne, wrote a book called "Sisters", which featured a lesbian love affair, brothels and attempted rapes.' ... In 1988, Lynn Cheney wrote about a Republican vice president who dies of a heart attack while having sex with his mistress.' Is that true?"

Cheney: "Nothing explicit."

Blitzer: "There's nothing in there about rape and brothels?"

Cheney: "Well, Wolf, could we talk about a children's book for a minute?"

Blitzer: "This is an opportunity for you to explain on these sensitive issues."

Cheney: "I have nothing to explain. Jim Webb has a lot to explain."

More Cheney: "Jim Webb is full of baloney" (CNN, 10/27).

Posted 10.27.06 04:45 PM | Comments (0)

The Hotline's Hot House Race Updates

1. Three's Company: State Rep. Joe Negron (R), venture capitalist Tim Mahoney (D) and insurance agent Emmie Ross (I), sparring over stem cell research...and their ties to ex-Rep. Mark Foley (R). Asked about the "Foley factor" in the race, noting that Mahoney and Ross were "long shots" before Foley resigned, Mahoney responded: "We were on track to beat Mark Foley."

What's more, Mahoney said he had "taken him down to under 40 percent and we were within 10 percent in the polls." Yet Negron acknowledged the "awkward" ballot situation, saying, "I'm not Mark Foley and I know people are fair enough to know the difference" (Palm Beach Post).

2. Two Polls, Two Very Different Results: In PA 08 Franklin & Marshall Keystone poll; conducted 10/19-24 for the Philadelphia Inquirer; surveyed 394 RVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 10/27). Tested: Rep. Michael Fitzpatrick (R) and Iraq war vet Patrick Murphy (D). Party ID breakdown: 40%D, 50%R, 10%I/O.

General Election Matchup            Most Important Issue To Your Vote?
             All Dem GOP Ind        War in Iraq          35%
Fitzpatrick  47% 12% 74% 53%        Economy              16
Murphy       38  76   9  32         War on terror        13
Other/undec  15  12  17  15         Health care          12
                                    Immigration           8
Fav/Unfav                           Gas prices            3
Fitzpatrick      43%/24%
Murphy           29 /23

See What We Mean?: A Global Strategies Group (D) poll; conducted 10/14-16 for Murphy; surveyed 406 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 10/27). Tested: Fitzpatrick and Murphy.

General Election Matchup
             Now 9/06 7/06 3/06
Murphy       45% 38%  38%  35%
Fitzpatrick  43  47   44   49
Other/undec  12  15   18   16

3. Who Should I Make The Check Out To? Pres. Bush stumped for state Sen. Pres. Jeff Lamberti (R) in IA 03 "for about three hours," raising $400K. Aside from talking of taxes, Bush also "slipped a bit" and twice calling Lamberti "Dave."

In response, Rep. Leonard Boswell's (D) camp "sent reporters rubber stamps that read, 'Yes, Mr. President'" to "paint Lamberti as a yes-man" for Bush and his "dangerous scheme" to privatize Social Security. Meanwhile, Lamberti's camp says he opposes privatization and "that Boswell was distorting his record" (DesMoines Register).

4. Taking A Hit: First post-scandal poll in PA 07 shows Rep. Curt Weldon trailing Vice Adm Joe Sestak (D) by 7 points.

The Benenson Strategy Group (D) poll; conducted 10/24 for the DCCC; surveyed 400 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 10/27). Tested: Rep. Curt Weldon (R) and ret. Vice Adm. Joe Sestak (D).

General Election Matchup Dir. Of US Sestak 50% Right track 31% Weldon 43 Wrong track 62 Other/undec 7 Bush As Pres. Approve 27% Disapprove 72

Posted 10.27.06 04:00 PM | Comments (0)

Today On Hotline TV: Hi, I'm Mr. Opportunity...

This week on Hotline TV, Chuck and John parse the latest Diageo/Hotline poll (all you Obamaniacs tune in), shine the spotlight on the year's biggest missed opportunities, wonder how GOP Gov candidates got swept up in the Dem wave, and ask where prominent '08ers are with their checkbooks.

Visit HotlineTV.net for this week's big show, the latest news and predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes!

Posted 10.27.06 03:04 PM | Comments (0)

The Hotline's Hot Senate Race Updates

1. Whitehouse Picking Up Undecideds? A Rhode Island College Bureau of Gov't Research and Services poll; conducted 10/23-25; surveyed 408 RVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 10/26). Tested: Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R) and ex-AG Sheldon Whitehouse (D). Party ID breakdown: 30%D, 14%R, 56%I/O.

General Election Matchup         No leans
(W/leans)        All Dem GOP Ind 10/4 6/15
Whitehouse       51% 78%  5% 48% 40%  40%
Chafee           43  16  93  45  37   43
Other/undec       6   6   2   7  23   17

2. Ford Fights Back: Ex-Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker (R)'s contributed $650K out of his own pocket to his campaign, an amount that falls just under the $665.7K needed to trigger the "millionaire's amendment." Corker received $2.19M, spent $1.7M and has about $973K in CoH. The NRSC and RNC have spent $3.27M in TN as of 10/24, while the DSCC has spent $3.9M in TN. Yet Ford sr. adviser Michael Powel has accused Corker of "trying to buy the election."

Meanwhile, Ford's latest FEC disclosure reveals he's received $1.25M, spent $1.67M and has about $365K in CoH. Powell: "We're going to be fully funded until the end" (Chattanooga Times Free Press).

3. Back To The Traditional NJ Undecideds: A CBS News/New York Times poll; conducted 10/20-25; surveyed 849 RVs; margin of error +/- 3% (release, 10/27). Subsample of 522 LVs; margin of error +/- 4%. Tested: Sen. Bob Menendez (D) and State Sen. Tom Kean (R).

General Election Matchup            Fav/Unfav
             LVs Dem GOP Ind        Ex-Gov. Kean     43%/10%
Menendez     40% 73%  5% 31%        Kean             24 /22
Kean         39   9  81  39         Ex-Gov. McGrev.  23 /45
Other/undec  21  18  14  30         Menendez         18 /28

Posted 10.27.06 02:23 PM | Comments (0)

On The Download: Betting The House

Welcome back to On The Download, your almost-daily dispatch on politechs: Politics, Multimedia and the Internet. Hotline subscribers: Check out our archives.

If you have tips, comments, or suggestions, email us.

Just more than a week after Congress and President Bush made gambling online more difficult, OTD is betting the House -- and the Senate, and the '08 field. We've collected your best bet sites for midterm wagers:

For office pools, nothing beats Washington Post's Midterm Madness interactive online game. The WaPo is known for having one of the best newspaper Web sites (and IT staff) in the country, but dot-com team outdid themselves this time with interactive flash and graphics.

The gambling type can also create office pools for '06 at the less flashy and easy-to-use Predict06.com. The site also features open response forms to play pundit with the upcoming election.

Fantasy Congress lets users "play politics" literally by drafting a Congressional dream team and getting points when your players, er - members, move bills.

What are the odds? Intrade.com has an exhaustive list of markets, from the chances George Allen will win the presidency in '08 to whether the GOP will retain control of the Senate in '06.

Finally, for the White House: The Iowa Futures Market started out as a research tool, but has earned a reputation for predicting the '08 field.

Weekend Bytes:
*Potential Presidential candidate Senator Chris Dodd launched his PAC's Web site ChrisDodd.com and joined the handful of other '08 candidates in making his own "DoddPod" casts. According to his PAC, the site was designed by Wired for Change with open source software Drupal for its content management system. The e-operation at Dodd's PAC is overseen by internet director Tim Cullen, who previously managed new media for Dodd's Senate office.

*IT News source Cnet.com is running a series on candidates' Web sites, including the ten worst sites in Congress and the best party with Web standards.

*Republican Web firm Bivings Group has done a study on which Senate candidate has the most popular Web sites, according to Alexa.com's traffic rankings. The number 1 and 2 spots are held by Lamont and Lieberman, with Jim Webb, Hillary Clinton and George Allen next in line.

*The League of Women Voters has its election site up with loads of reliable voter resource information.

*The NRSC put up TicTacTester.

*Web Ads: DNC's "Stay The Course" has had a whopping 215,000 views this week. The NRSC's web video on Clare McCaskill is called "Misplaced."
Kinky Friedman for Texas Governor's put up "Time to Vote Again." Arnold Scharzenegger's campaign depicts "The Phil Angelides Playbook: Character Assassination." Ned Lamont makes Sen. Joe Lieberman fade into Richard Nixon in this video

Posted 10.27.06 01:23 PM | Comments (0)

Michigan Senate: NRSC Still Playing, SomeWhat

The NRSC transferred $400K worth of coordinated funds to Bouchard today (Hotline sources, 10/27).

Bush Goes To Bat For Bouchard -- Again


Pres. Bush 10/26 made his second stop for Bouchard in just over a month, speaking at a Detroit Tigers-themed fundraiser in Warren. Bush said MI needs Bouchard in the Sen. to take its economy "from worst to first" (Irwin, AP, 10/27) and praised Bouchard's "character, his decency and his compassion for the people of Michigan."


Bush was expected to raise $550K, which Bouchard spokesperson David All said "will go straight to TV advertising" (Gorchow, Detroit Free Press, 10/27). Bouchard "is gambling that Bush can help him" by drawing media attention and filling his war chest.


Dems criticized Bush for making two stops for Bouchard but putting off meeting with MI auto industry leaders until after the election (Heinlein/Lynch, Detroit News, 10/27). Stabenow "held her own rally" in Warren 10/26, saying she couldn't believe Bouchard "would have the president come in not once, but twice, and not insist that he spend at least a few minutes with the largest employers of the state" (Detroit Free Press, 10/27).


Running For Office, Out Of The Office


Detroit Free Press' Gray examined Bouchard's records as a state legislator and as Oakland Co. sheriff, finding his "two sides... are sometimes hard to reconcile." While his "bipartisan approach to lawmaking" drew praise, some Dems and GOPers said he was "too eager for the next political opportunity" in switching jobs before his term was up. His program and budget work as sheriff is also praised, though some in the office say "he's rarely around" since hitting the campaign trail (10/27).

Posted 10.27.06 12:58 PM | Comments (0)

House Race Rankings Updated

There aren't too many shake-ups this week. Focus mainly on races ranked 17 to 36; they are among the closest contests in the country right now. The first 10 are all but gone for the majority party, and districts ranked 11 through 16 are teetering but still in play.

The Hotline's House Race Rankings

Posted 10.27.06 12:20 PM | Comments (0)

The Daily Troika: Obama And Independents

Speaking of polls, Fox News had some interesting head to heads in its national poll of 900 likely voters conducted 10/24 and 10/25.

                 D        R           I
Obama     38%  69%        9%        34%
McCain    41%  13%       73%        36%   
Undec.    21%  18%       18%        29%

Clinton  39%   74%       10%         28%  
McCain   45%   14%       78%         46%
Undec.   15%   12%       12%         26%

Sen. Bill Frist sent an e-mail to his VolPAC list entitled "Save The House From Hillary!" He writes: "Hillary Clinton’s “top priority” these days is winning one election: Iowa’s 1st District congressional election. Why? Because she believes if Democrats win this seat they will control the House of Representatives." So he asks his list to contribute to Mike Whalen (R).

Squibs

Posted 10.27.06 11:21 AM | Comments (0)

The NRSC Ad In New Jersey

A $3.5 million buy, the ad is produced by OnMessage, Inc.

Voiceover: ANNCR: If it sounds like corruption…..it is.
Listen: TAPE: “Menendez will consider that a favor.”
ANNCR: That’s Bob Menendez’s top advisor pressuring a government contractor.
TAPE: “Menendez asked me to do it.”
ANNCR: He said Bob Menendez asked him to do it. Political boss Bob Menendez.
It’s Hudson County Corruption – in the name of Bob Menendez -- just before the FBI stepped in.
If Menendez won’t resign…..New Jersey has to do it for him.

Posted 10.27.06 10:24 AM | Comments (0)

Consultant's Corner: Young Candidates On The M.A.P.

What started off as a favor became a life-changing event for Sam McCabe, a student at TX State Univ. in San Marcos, TX. McCabe, 23, managed the campaign of Chris Jones, a fellow student running for a seat on the San Marcos City Council in 11/05. Jones defeated a prof. for the seat during a 12/05 run-off, with half of the votes consisting of student voters. This was the first time a student won a city council seat since '73.

As a result, McCabe received praise for the much-publicized victory and in 7/06, he joined forces with students Jordan Anderson and Jude Prather, both 24, to create McCabe, Anderson and Prather (M.A.P.), a bipartisan political consulting firm. Due to ideological differences (McCabe is a Dem; both Prather and Anderson are GOPers), the firm selects candidates that are "student-friendly." In an attempt to fight student apathy, McCabe says M.A.P. has some ground rules for its clients. McCabe: "Our number one rule is you have to stay positive." [KATHERINE LEHR].

This cycle, M.A.P. is providing all of the consulting services for Hays Co. Judge Jim Powers (R), 428th District Court Judge Bill Henry (R) and Hays Co. DA candidate Sherri Tibbe (D). M.A.P. has helped raise over $30K for Tibbe's campaign, which McCabe considers the firm's most competitive race. In addition to these races, M.A.P. is doing work for Mayor Susan Narvaiz and 2 city council candidates. Services provided by M.A.P. include media buys, direct mail pieces, demographic targeting, phone-banking, GOTV and general strategic consulting. Moreover, the firm is using newer forms of technology like setting up groups on the Facebook and text messaging. McCabe explains that "online is the place" to reach students and they have to "hit them many times electronically" to see results.

McCabe contends M.A.P. has "filled a hole in the community," which is for the most part political consultant-free. A San Marcos native and ex-student body senator, McCabe has local connections, as well as the ability to "tap into university life." M.A.P., which is self-funded, currently has 13 student interns. When asked the advantage of taking a youthful approach, McCabe responds "a high level of energy." As the for the disadvantage? McCabe: "No matter if people have previously known me or not, older people tend to be uncomfortable with me making critical decisions and being responsible for spending a lot of their money. ... It is mainly credibility."

As of the 10/10 deadline for TX voter registration, 9.5K out of the roughly 14K TX State Univ. students were registered to vote. McCabe notes that the GOP-leaning Hays Co., which is situated between Austin and San Antonio, is the second fastest growing Co. in the state. San Marcus has around 40K people and therefore, the student population "can really swing the election." McCabe adds that the number of people turning out for the TX GOV race will make a huge impact this year.

M.A.P. has relied on word-of-mouth to appeal to clients. However, after 11/7, M.A.P. will find a permanent office and launch a "full-blown" web site. As for future aspirations? M.A.P. aims for fewer clients, but bigger races. McCabe: "First I have to finish college and then the sky's the limit."

Getting Into The Game

American Assn of Political Consultants Chair Nancy Todd claims young people entering the political consulting field "isn't any different from before -- even 30 or 40 years ago." Todd, who began working on campaigns at the age of 21 while in law school at LSU, has been a consultant to over 196 campaigns since '79, with a 98% winning record. Todd notes that most consultants got their start in the field at an early age and discovered "they had a knack for it." Todd, on clients: "They don't care about your law degree. ... All they care about are the wins and losses." When asked how to get into the business, Todd advises individuals to work for a firm, where they can discover where their expertise lies. However, she says if there is an established success rate and sufficient funds, younger people opening firms, like M.A.P., can be the "smart way to do it"Any questions, comments or thoughts about what you've seen in Consultants' Corner, or what you'd like to see, email us.

Posted 10.27.06 09:32 AM | Comments (0)

Hotline After Dark -- Family Ties

Political ads, Pres. Bush's 2-day old presser, and the war in Iraq dominated cable news last night:

• CBS' Pitts profiled TN SEN for the "Evening News."
• MO SEN's Claire McCaskill was in the "Situation Room" and CNN's Crowley profiled MT SEN.
• MSNBC's Shuster profiled TN SEN for "Hardball."
• FNC's Cameron profiled VA SEN and FNC's Garrett profiled MN 01 for "Special Report."

Actor Michael J. Fox sat down with CBS' Couric:

Fox: "On any given day I have a thousand different things I can feel. I go through a million cycles. For example, right now this is a dearth of medication, not by design. I just take it and kicks in when it kicks in. Sometimes it kicks in too hard and then you get what you call dyskinesia, which is that rocking motion that I had when I did the commercial."

Couric: "Could you have waited to do that ad when you had less dyskinesia, for example?"

Fox: "Well, when do you know that's going to be?"

Couric: "In fact, Rush Limbaugh suggested you had failed to take your medication intentionally so when you did that ad you'd be more symptomatic and therefore, more sympathetic."

Fox: "The irony of it is, I was too medicated."

Couric: "I called Rush Limbaugh and he told me, 'I believe Democrats have a long history of using victims of various things as political spokespeople because they believe they are untouchable, infallible. They are immune from criticism.'"

Fox: "Well, first thing, he used the word victim, and in another occasion, I heard him use the word 'pitiable.' And I don't understand, nobody in this position wants pity. We don't want pity. I could give a damn about Rush Limbaugh's pity or anyone else's pity. I'm not a victim. I'm someone who's in this situation. I'm in this situation with millions of other Americans. ... And we have a right, if there's answers out there, to pursue those answers with the full support of our politicians. And so I don't need anyone's permission to do that.

Couric: "Would you support a Republican candidate?"

Fox: "I have. Arlen Specter is my guy. I've campaigned for Arlen Specter. He's been a fantastic champion of stem cell research" (CBS, 10/26).

And ex-NJ Gov. Jim McGreevey (D) stopped by "LKL":

On the NJ gay marriage ruling: "I thought it was a step in the right direction. I mean the court recognized the importance of providing for full constitutional benefits for two individuals provided they're in love and they're willing to make that commitment. I would have preferred them to take the next step and also embrace the notion of marriage."

On the Mark Foley scandal: "It's tragic, I mean on a number of fronts" (CNN, 10/26).

Posted 10.27.06 07:12 AM | Comments (0)

October 26, 2006

RNC Axes Ohio Ad Buy

Dem media buyers picked it up, and the RNC confirmed it. No more RNC TV for Mike DeWine.

From the Cleveland Plain Dealer:

The Republican National Committee confirms it will not be on the air in the final week of Mike DeWine's campaign, canceling its ad reservations throughout Ohio.

Aaron McLear, RNC spokesman, says the party will continue its on-the-ground efforts and staff support for Ohio Republicans, and says he understands DeWine has about $2.8 million available for his own commercials.

But no more money for RNC ads as of Tuesday. The party canceled its air time reservations.

Posted 10.26.06 07:20 PM | Comments (0)

Seven Reasons Why Karl Rove Is Optimistic

Ok, well, actually, we can’t break into Rove’s head and we don’t know why he’s personally confident. Many speculate that the veneer of hope masks unalloyed fear. But here are seven reasons cited by people who also read “THE polls” and who are in regular commerce with Rove, RNC chairman Ken Mehlman and White House political director Sara Taylor.

Let’s define our term, first. “Optimism” doesn’t mean that these Republicans are convinced that they’ll pick up seats. The White House knows that its majorities in both chambers will be reduced. Optimism also doesn’t imply that these Republicans are blind to the probability of a Dem House takeover and the possibility of a Dem Senate takeover.
What optimism means is that these Republicans believe that there are enough reasons to believe that Republicans can hang on to enough seats in the House and enough in the Senate to barely miss the guillotine.

Reason 1 -- Senior Republicans have all but conceded… heck, they’ve conceded… eight to ten House races. In these races, in Republican internal polls that Rove trusts, the Dem candidate consistently outpolls the Republican candidate outside the margin of error. There are about 20 additional races where the D candidate either leads the R candidate WITHIN the margin, trades leads with the Republican, or occasionally leads outside the margin of error. The Rove Optimist believes that the national Republican turnout effort – the 72 Hour Program – can add one to two percent to the margins of Republicans. So if these Republicans can stay within the margin of error – within two points – of Democrats until Election Day, there’s a chance that Republicans can eek out victories in 70 percent of those contested races. Many of these races are located in congressional districts won by President Bush. Many involve incumbents who have had time to develop party-independent personas. Many represent districts drawn especially to preserve their seats. [MARC AMBINDER]

2. In the Senate, Republican internal polling shows George Allen up, Jim Talent and Bob Corker up slightly, Conrad Burns picking up Republican votes and narrowing the gap with Jon Tester. (Democratic internal polling shows Burns down six; Ford up, Webb up, and McCaskill up).

3. The NRCC spent lots of money very early to define and discredit and render unacceptable many of the Democrats in these tough races. The favorability ratings of many of these Democrats are low or, if they are high, they are soft and vulnerable. There are, in about 15 districts, enough undecided voters who could, in the right circumstances, decide to vote for the Republican.

4. A mantra: What happens during the last week of the election matters as much as what happened during the last month; what happens during the last three days matters as much as the last week. Republicans might catch a break from exogenous events; they might win news cycles in critical areas.

5. In general, the mechanics: Republican candidates have more money; the RNC still has a financial edge; both the NRSC and NRCC are prepared to deficit finance; the 72 Hour Program; The Bully Pulpit of the White House; A single, unified operation run by Ken Mehlman rather than three separate entities run by different people.

6. Republican internal surveys of the base show that the core of that base is primed and ready to turn out. The less-committed periphery of the base isn’t, but the core is. These surveys conflict with some public surveys, but Republicans have been proven right before. According to Republicans, early voting and absentee ballot programs are proceeding apace; 72 Hour Program contacts exceed the record-breaking ’04 levels; overall grassroots output is up.

7. This final reason is perhaps the most important. If Karl Rove evinces one shred of doubt about the fate of Republican congressional control, he’d be lucky if half of the volunteers who diligently show up to Republican victory centers across the country pack up and go home. Optimism breeds faith. And more importantly, optimism could mean the difference between losing 14 seats and losing 35. The base will pick up on signs of Bush’s pessimism, of Mehlman’s pessimism, of Rove’s pessimism. It pays real electoral dividends for the captain of the aircraft to be optimistic and calm as he or she tries to pull out of a downward spiral. To borrow, then torture, another metaphor, to be anything but positively buoyant would be akin to the coach of the basketball team calling a time out to tell the guys who are down 15 pts with a minute to go that things don’t look so good. Demoralizing doesn’t even begin to get at it.

Posted 10.26.06 04:00 PM | Comments (30) | TrackBack

House Race Hotline Update: Back In The Fold?

Updated Race Rankings: House **** Senate **** Governors

Are rural, culturally conservative voters so dissatisfied with the GOP that they'll vote Dem? There have been some mixed signals from polls and anecdotal evidence.

-- The new Bloomberg/LA Times poll in five SEN battlegrounds finds they seem to be sticking with the GOP despite their dissatisfaction with the country's direction.

-- But in certain CDs, values voters are making their displeasure known. Only 55% of born-again Christians said they'd vote for scandal-plagued Rep. Don Sherwood (R-PA 10) in a just-released Keystone poll -- far below their normal support for a GOPer. And nearly every ad from Chris Carney (D) has referenced values.

-- Like Carney, other Dems are targeting values voters in key races. Mary Jo Kilroy (D) aired a recent radio ad critical of Rep. Deborah Pryce (R-OH 15) primarily on Christian stations. Ex-Rep. Baron Hill (D) has highlighted his opposition to gay marriage in his IN 09 ads.

-- SEN candidates play to a much broader audience. But certain Dem House candidates are strategically focusing on disaffected social conservatives. If Dems pick up seats in IN 08, KY 04, and MN 01 -- to name a few more -- their margin of victory could well come from churchgoing GOPers. [JOSH KRAUSHAAR]

Posted 10.26.06 03:29 PM | Comments (0)

Today On Hotline TV: Prediction Time!

We're ready to make a few more predictions, so we spend today calling the races. Some surprises, perhaps?

Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!

Posted 10.26.06 03:00 PM | Comments (0)

On The Trail: The Eight Races To Watch

I dread the last two weeks of every election cycle. Self doubt seeps in with every new poll release. Thoughts from two months ago seem silly now.

In trying to stay sane, I'm focusing on eight races (three Senate and five House) and learning everything I can about them. How these eight end up on Nov. 7 will tell us everything we need to know about this cycle from personality to demographics to issues.

My "Elite Eight" picks are: Missouri Senate, Tennessee Senate, Virginia Senate, Fla.-22, Ky.-03, Ohio-01, Conn.-02 and N.C.-11.

The Senate trio is an obvious pick because the party that wins two of those three is likely to control the chamber come January.

But I chose the five House races because they exemplify larger trends. Individually, they are interesting (albeit not necessarily the most hotly contested), but each represents a bigger part of the national story that is shaping this cycle.

Continue reading Chuck Todd's On The Trail

Posted 10.26.06 02:10 PM | Comments (0)

The Daily Troika: Common Wealth

MA Gov. Mitt Romney's (R) "Commonwealth" PAC announced FL Gov. Jeb Bush fundraiser Ann Woods Herberger is joining their PAC as a National Finance Advisor. From '89-'91, Herberger served as the Western Regional Dir. for the RNC's major donor program. She took a leave from the RNC in '92 to serve as the Deputy Finance Dir. for the Bush-Quayle campaign. Herberger then served as Jeb Bush's Finance Dir in his '97 and '02 campaigns.

Sen. John McCain's "Straight Talk America" PAC announced that 50 NH State Reps have joined the PAC to form a legislative advisory cmte "to counsel" McCain on "issues involving" the '06 elections (release, 10/26).

Also, 10 New Jersey State Senators came aboard: Senators Peter Inverso (Mercer and Middlesex Counties) and Bill Gormley (Atlantic County). Assembly members Bill Baroni (Mercer and Middlesex), Jennifer Beck (Monmouth), Francis Blee (Atlantic), Jon Bramnick (Union, Essex, and Morris), Steve Corodemus (Monmouth), Amy Handlin (Monmouth and Middlesex), Sean Kean (Monmouth), and Samuel Thompson (Monmouth and Middlesex).

Today marks the 39th anniversary of McCain being shot down over Vietnam, a fact which AL Gov. Bob Riley mentioned while introducing McCain this a.m. in AL

The JohnKerry.com list broke fundraising records this a.m., raising $900K for 4 SEN races in TN, MO, NJ, and VA in only 48 hours. The listserve raised the money after e-mails were sent from both Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) and Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL).

Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT) will visit SC 10/26-27, where he will make campaign stops in Charleston, Orangeburg, and Columbia. Dodd will hold a happy hour with the Charleston Dems and the SC Young Dems today. On 10/27, Dodd will have breakfast with Orangeburg officials before holding a fundraiser at the SC Dem HQ in Columbia (release).

Posted 10.26.06 02:00 PM | Comments (1)

Today's Blogometer: Iraq Is King

If you were hoping gay marriage, stem cells, or new Foley scandal revelations would bounce Iraq out of the top issue spot this cycle, you're gonna be disappointed. Perhaps court decisions granting marriage rights to gays just don't carry the shock value they used to. But whatever the reason, few bloggers are predicting the issue will be a boon for the GOP this time around. Instead, local issues/scandals are dominating even the nat'l 'sphere. In TN, race baiting is front and center, while MD and MO races have bloggers focussed on stem cells. But everywhere, Iraq is the underlying issue. The one keeping Pres. Bush away from districts where he took 62% in '04.

GAY MARRIAGE: October Unsurprise

Plenty of blogger reaction to New Jersey Supreme Court's decision to grant gay couples the same marriage rights as straight couples, but little of it election focussed. National Review Online's Kathryn Jean Lopez suggests the Family Research Council "folks" she recently was with "now have their reason to vote" but she also doesn't believe the decision will help State Sen. Tom Kean Jr. (R) since "he's against a federal marriage amendment."

Kausfiles suggests Dems may have dodged a "Big Gay Bullet" when the court granted gay couples rights without calling it marriage thus avoiding "having the state instantly become, in AP's pre-anticipatory words, "the nation's gay wedding chapel." Hot Air's Allahpundit also sees "no effect" for the GOP this fall. Right Angle Blog's Chris Field, however, does argue that the "The N.J. court just gave the Republican Party a major campaign issue."

Continue Reading Today's Blogometer.

Posted 10.26.06 01:29 PM | Comments (0)

PolitiScope: The Shame Game

You know who they are, those unopposed or "safe" lawmakers in each party, who amass huge war chests and then... sit on them, quietly declining to offer much help to vulnerable colleagues publicly begging for cash. With money a decisive factor in the up-for-grabs battle for control of both chambers, those members, particularly House Democrats, are coming under increasing pressure to pony up. Whose money is it anyway? Read more in Hotline senior editor John Mercurio's new "PolitiScope."

Posted 10.26.06 01:04 PM | Comments (0)

Hotline/Diageo Poll: The Final Snapshot