October 18, 2006
Minnesota Governor's Race: Must Be The Lake Effect
Welcome to Minnesota: Where the women are strong, the men are good looking, and all this week's Minneapolis Star-Tribune polls lean Democrat.
Updated Race Rankings: House **** Senate **** Governors
Polls released this week by the state's largest newspaper showed Democrats with unprecedented leads in the Governor race and Minnesota's 6th. In polls taken the second week of October, Attorney General Mike Hatch (DFL) led sitting Governor Tim Pawlenty (R) 47-37 (MoE 3.4%), with another 7% for Indie candidate Peter Hutchinson. A poll from the same time period shows child safety advocate Patty Wetterling (DFL) leading state Senator Michele Bachmann (R) 48-40 (MoE 4.5%) and the Indie candidate getting 4%.
One might surmise that both DFL candidates, Hatch and Wetterling, are riding the anti-Washington wave with Amy Klobuchar, who has been leading opponent Rep. Mark Kennedy (R) in double-digits for months. But if that's the case, why did Hatch and Wetterling spring forward in the past month? Furthermore, the same Star-Trib poll shows many voters (27%) are willing to split the ticket Klobuchar/Pawlenty. Is this the same purple-turning-red state that the RNC announced its 2008 Convention with a rumored RGA chair-in-waiting Governor? [SHIRA TOEPLITZ]
One word: Foley. Wetterling's celebrity in the region might have had traction statewide. One republican source admitted: "I think the Foley stuff probably received more attention here because of (Wetterling)." So is it possible that Hatch is riding Wetterling's coat tails?
Because it's not because Hatch has run a particularly effective campaign. Pawlenty's camp decided a few weeks ago in an unprecedented move to break the state public financing limits in order to raise more money, and therefore eliminating limits for all other Gubernatorial candidates -- not the move you make if you're behind in the polls (which at the time, he wasn't). More importantly, Hatch has had a string of stories on his agressiveness towards judges and the consequent investigation. Ironically he also suffered a blow earlier in the year after Wetterling rejected Hatch's offer to be his running mate.
Two more hypotheses on why the MN GOP candidates might be feeling the Lake Wobegon Effect more than the rest of the country. The heart of the Minnesota DFL is an anti-war Wellstonian ideology, which means otherwise apathetic DFLers or Indie-leaning voters might be more likely come out to the polls on accord of the Iraq war. Secondly, the state that elected Jesse Ventura (I)'s own independent party isn't as strong as it used to be. By any other states' standards, seven percentage points is respectable for a minor party candidate. But in Minnesota, ex-Rep. Tim Penny (I) got 16% in the '02 Governors race, allowing another Tim to get elected to his 1st term.
Posted at 09:02 AM
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