October 31, 2006
Natural Tightening Doesn't Equal Momentum
Our Hotline Spotlight from 10/30:
There are more polls out today, it seems, than there are races to poll, many showing races on the move. But which contests are "closing," and which candidates are heading into their final week with real Mo'?
It's a subtle distinction, but a crucial one as we try, just 8 days out, to gauge the state of play. Some races are simply closing, as undecideds come home to their natural leanings. In NJ, where voters usually break late for Dems, Menendez has opened up a small lead. In MN, an increasingly competitive blueish-purple state, Klobuchar has seen her huge advantage shrink slightly.
Elsewhere, candidates are gaining momentum. Following Cubin's missteps, Dem Trauner is now locked in a dead heat in WY AL. Dems cite SEN tracking polls that show VA's Webb and TN's Ford, boosted by backlash, pulling ahead. (#20)
Sometimes, it's both momentum and closing. Burns, for example, is showing signs of life in MT SEN, which could stem from the red state's natural leanings and a surge from a barrage of anti-Tester ads. Can the NRSC's cash infusion stir real momentum there?
Posted at 10:23 AM
Comments
"Closing" happening in Arizona too - Aravosis on the great ground efforts by Dems there: http://americablog.blogspot.com/2006/10/arizona-senate-race-is-tightening.html
thumbelina | 10.31.06 12:03 PM
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Oh, I see. If the Republicans are doing better, it's "natural tightening." If the Dems are doing better, it's "momentum." Got it. thanks for clearing that up.
GOPWins | 10.31.06 12:31 PM
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