October 26, 2006
Seven Reasons Why Karl Rove Is Optimistic
Ok, well, actually, we can’t break into Rove’s head and we don’t know why he’s personally confident. Many speculate that the veneer of hope masks unalloyed fear. But here are seven reasons cited by people who also read “THE polls” and who are in regular commerce with Rove, RNC chairman Ken Mehlman and White House political director Sara Taylor.
Let’s define our term, first. “Optimism” doesn’t mean that these Republicans are convinced that they’ll pick up seats. The White House knows that its majorities in both chambers will be reduced. Optimism also doesn’t imply that these Republicans are blind to the probability of a Dem House takeover and the possibility of a Dem Senate takeover.
What optimism means is that these Republicans believe that there are enough reasons to believe that Republicans can hang on to enough seats in the House and enough in the Senate to barely miss the guillotine.
Reason 1 -- Senior Republicans have all but conceded… heck, they’ve conceded… eight to ten House races. In these races, in Republican internal polls that Rove trusts, the Dem candidate consistently outpolls the Republican candidate outside the margin of error. There are about 20 additional races where the D candidate either leads the R candidate WITHIN the margin, trades leads with the Republican, or occasionally leads outside the margin of error. The Rove Optimist believes that the national Republican turnout effort – the 72 Hour Program – can add one to two percent to the margins of Republicans. So if these Republicans can stay within the margin of error – within two points – of Democrats until Election Day, there’s a chance that Republicans can eek out victories in 70 percent of those contested races. Many of these races are located in congressional districts won by President Bush. Many involve incumbents who have had time to develop party-independent personas. Many represent districts drawn especially to preserve their seats. [MARC AMBINDER]
2. In the Senate, Republican internal polling shows George Allen up, Jim Talent and Bob Corker up slightly, Conrad Burns picking up Republican votes and narrowing the gap with Jon Tester. (Democratic internal polling shows Burns down six; Ford up, Webb up, and McCaskill up).
3. The NRCC spent lots of money very early to define and discredit and render unacceptable many of the Democrats in these tough races. The favorability ratings of many of these Democrats are low or, if they are high, they are soft and vulnerable. There are, in about 15 districts, enough undecided voters who could, in the right circumstances, decide to vote for the Republican.
4. A mantra: What happens during the last week of the election matters as much as what happened during the last month; what happens during the last three days matters as much as the last week. Republicans might catch a break from exogenous events; they might win news cycles in critical areas.
5. In general, the mechanics: Republican candidates have more money; the RNC still has a financial edge; both the NRSC and NRCC are prepared to deficit finance; the 72 Hour Program; The Bully Pulpit of the White House; A single, unified operation run by Ken Mehlman rather than three separate entities run by different people.
6. Republican internal surveys of the base show that the core of that base is primed and ready to turn out. The less-committed periphery of the base isn’t, but the core is. These surveys conflict with some public surveys, but Republicans have been proven right before. According to Republicans, early voting and absentee ballot programs are proceeding apace; 72 Hour Program contacts exceed the record-breaking ’04 levels; overall grassroots output is up.
7. This final reason is perhaps the most important. If Karl Rove evinces one shred of doubt about the fate of Republican congressional control, he’d be lucky if half of the volunteers who diligently show up to Republican victory centers across the country pack up and go home. Optimism breeds faith. And more importantly, optimism could mean the difference between losing 14 seats and losing 35. The base will pick up on signs of Bush’s pessimism, of Mehlman’s pessimism, of Rove’s pessimism. It pays real electoral dividends for the captain of the aircraft to be optimistic and calm as he or she tries to pull out of a downward spiral. To borrow, then torture, another metaphor, to be anything but positively buoyant would be akin to the coach of the basketball team calling a time out to tell the guys who are down 15 pts with a minute to go that things don’t look so good. Demoralizing doesn’t even begin to get at it.
Posted at 04:00 PM
Comments
You overlooked the most important reason: He's delusional.
Billy | 10.26.06 05:22 PM
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Rove is famous for playing mind games dating back to his high school debating days. He lugged huge bags supposedly stuffed with "back-up" arguments etc. which actually had blank paper. Rove is a con artist. Democrats would do well to be chirpy and optimistic and watch the voting machines - all of them.
M. Stratas | 10.26.06 05:30 PM
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Yep, you're right. I'm a Republican and I will certainly turn out as will my friend and family. In fact, I don't know a single Republican who isn't planning to turn out.
The stakes for Republicans are too high on too many issues dear to our hearts -- terrorism, patriot act, NSA program, Iraq, taxes, immigration, etc... not to vote (despite continual stories 24/7 designed to depress and supress our base)...
CM | 10.26.06 05:38 PM
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Reason #6 is right on. Four weeks ago I was not super-motivated. I always planned to vote - just not passionate about it like I was in 2004. After all the garbage the dems have been throwing around lately and their premature victory celebration, I got fired up. I early voted today for Bob Corker (R) in the TN Senate race. Harold Ford Jr. (D) is imploding as will other dems in the next two weeks. The dems will make gains but they won't win the House or the Senate.
Mark Magee | 10.26.06 05:38 PM
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The Repubs should beat the Demos over the head for trying to kill the Patriot bill just like the Demos always beat them over the head with Katrina.
Mr Motto | 10.26.06 05:42 PM
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Republicans will lose one Senate seat and only 6 House Seats while Democrats lose 2 House Seats showing a net loss of 4 seats - The Republican base will turn out - by the way I am a registered Independent Voter in Tangipahoa Parish - you may check my registration for yourself - and the headlines will read in the days after the elections that tens of thousands didn't get to vote or were prevented from voting - same old Dem mantra - what the headlines should read is:
Mainstream Media POLLAGANDA Campaign against Republicans FAILS AGAIN!!!
Tim Patrick | 10.26.06 05:43 PM
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Rove and crew will probably come up with another phoney terrorist alert like they did after John Kerry's acceptance speach to scare the silly american sheep.
lloyd xkey | 10.26.06 05:44 PM
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One word: DIEBOLD
jane | 10.26.06 05:46 PM
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Mr. Rove is concerned only of keeping "W"'s party in office. Rove is the one of the most evil people in this country. Right along with the others of the "axis of evil", they being Mr. Evil himself, Dick Cheney, and our old buddy Rummy. What a disgusting bunch of worthless frauds. Rove is very much like his grandfather who was a war criminal of the Nazi era.
disgruntled | 10.26.06 05:48 PM
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Rove's a Nazi. He spin-doctors and manipulates until much of the American public is confused beyond all reason.
Rovie's pushing a deadly game. 3,000 American soldiers killed and Rovie comfortably tucks himself in at night. 600,000 Iraqis killed and Rovie and the gang keep manipulating. The beat goes on...
Dan | 10.26.06 05:55 PM
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I voted absentee in FL yesterday. I watch the news, and watch the raving of the left. Does the drive by media and the dems think we've lost our minds? Once again we will confound the glass faces who tell us we're going to lose!
roy moore | 10.26.06 05:56 PM
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How about the fact that Mr. Rove and his pals at Diebold have confident that the election will go there way.
-Matt | 10.26.06 05:58 PM
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And then there's Diebold. They can always just steal the election again.
Paul | 10.26.06 06:01 PM
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I notice the biased writer of this report only states that Republicans are the one finding every little thing to try to discredit the Democrat opponent. Why no mention of Democrats doing the same thing with Foley and with Phil Angelides with Governor Arnold? Do you know that Angelides has not yet giving one specific on anything he stands for during this Governor's campaign? Just looking into the camera and repeating...ARNOLD IS ASSOCIATED WITH BUSH...ARNOLD IS ASSOCIATED WITH FOLEY...ARNOLD IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE GUY IN ORANGE COUNTRY WHO SENT THAT LETTER TO ILLEGAL ALIENS...is not gonna cut it. Where does Angelides stand on Taxes, the economy, our borders, etc? Nobody knows.
My point is that journalists need only report facts and let us decide. Please stop trying to sway everything to your way of thinking. Also, the Democrats are the most vicious when it comes to trying to discredit opponents, so stop your biased opinions!
Andrew | 10.26.06 06:03 PM
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Right on the money.
Rove has the magic touch and he knows it. He knows what the lay of the political land.
The traitor Dems are going down again.
StarsandBars | 10.26.06 06:04 PM
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first
c | 10.26.06 06:05 PM
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while i'll probably go ahed & vote republican, it galls me to do so. The Repub's as well as the Demo's are deserving of little other than our derision. Neither serves any true constituency other the that of "'momentary exigency". If there were any sort of viable third party, the winner would already be decided.
rick | 10.26.06 06:06 PM
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rove should stop drinking the kool-aid. Republican's are going to lose the house.
noway | 10.26.06 06:11 PM
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Brilliant analysis. If I were the Democrat leadership, I would start looking up Crow recipes on allrecipes.com
Marty Minor | 10.26.06 06:20 PM
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How insane does someone have to be to put any democrat in charge of the security and the economy of this country?
I don't get it.
Mark Wolin | 10.26.06 06:26 PM
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Don't forget we also purge Democrat voters and rig the elections incahoots with Deibold sans paper trail!
james | 10.26.06 06:26 PM
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excellent article....I do believe Republicans keep both houses but by slim margins
amy | 10.26.06 06:29 PM
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hmmmmm
rocco | 10.26.06 06:35 PM
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We have not been attacked. It will all come down to security.
john pinero | 10.26.06 06:44 PM
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Cheers to Repugs who alerted their friends to write in these talking point posts. (Or one guy who wrote the same junk under aliases.)
The sad thing is that I doubt that a single one of these posters - or posers - are the multi-millionaires that the Repug policies favor.
All of you are suffering because of six years of REpug economic, military, judicial and diplomatic screw-ups & authoritarian power-grabs.
It's so sad for all of us... but sadder still for the fools who still buy into the Bushite-Rovite lies...
"Yay! My team wins!" What a pathetic mentality borrowed from the sports world where a bunch of couch potatoes get to feel like Real Men because their town's team of professional athletes wins a game.
This mentality is just a holdover from cave-man days.
Like it affects you positively if Rove steals another election.
Open your eyes and vote WITH your interests... not just for the silver-back male gorilla with the loudest chest thump.
Repug voters, grow a spine!
orwell's doormat | 10.31.06 06:30 AM
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I honestly am baffled by the notion that Democrats are weak on security. Are they somehow not interested in protecting this nation -- that seems like a ridiculous notion.
Would our armed forces somehow act differently? The CIA? The FBI? Would military spending change that radically?
Can someone please come up with a credible argument, because so far the only thing I can come up with is "because the Republican party says it is so".
dave | 10.31.06 01:42 PM
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>>>Rove is famous for playing mind games dating back to his high school debating days. He lugged huge bags supposedly stuffed with "back-up" arguments etc. which actually had blank paper.
Agreed. If Rove knows how to do anything right, it's bluff. There's no way he'll say anything negative about his party's chances next week for fear of dimming turn-out.
The GOP is going down in flames, period, and they have nothing but their own arrogance to blame for it.
CHV | 10.31.06 01:52 PM
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Actually, we were attacked. Let's not forget who was in power in 2001, and that under Clinton every single plot against US domestic targets was foiled.
paul mueller | 10.31.06 05:00 PM
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This Democratic weakness on national security idea is a hoot. I can't imagine a policy less likely to protect this country from future attack than the one pursued by this president and his administration.
jwberrie | 11.05.06 01:18 AM
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Reading this thread in the Spring of 2007 is hilarious because despite all of the election fraud employed by the Republicans, Republicans still lost everything. Face it, Republicans are an endangered species now. All thanks to the corruption of Rove and Bush.
X | 04.26.07 12:56 PM
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