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October 27, 2006

The Hotline's Hot House Race Updates

capitalbutton.gif A daily update of ads, polls, trends and analyses from the hottest House races. tracker.jpg
 Updated Race Rankings: House **** Senate **** Governors

1. Three's Company: State Rep. Joe Negron (R), venture capitalist Tim Mahoney (D) and insurance agent Emmie Ross (I), sparring over stem cell research...and their ties to ex-Rep. Mark Foley (R). Asked about the "Foley factor" in the race, noting that Mahoney and Ross were "long shots" before Foley resigned, Mahoney responded: "We were on track to beat Mark Foley."

What's more, Mahoney said he had "taken him down to under 40 percent and we were within 10 percent in the polls." Yet Negron acknowledged the "awkward" ballot situation, saying, "I'm not Mark Foley and I know people are fair enough to know the difference" (Palm Beach Post).

2. Two Polls, Two Very Different Results: In PA 08 Franklin & Marshall Keystone poll; conducted 10/19-24 for the Philadelphia Inquirer; surveyed 394 RVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 10/27). Tested: Rep. Michael Fitzpatrick (R) and Iraq war vet Patrick Murphy (D). Party ID breakdown: 40%D, 50%R, 10%I/O. 

General Election Matchup            Most Important Issue To Your Vote?
             All Dem GOP Ind        War in Iraq          35%
Fitzpatrick  47% 12% 74% 53%        Economy              16
Murphy       38  76   9  32         War on terror        13
Other/undec  15  12  17  15         Health care          12
                                    Immigration           8
Fav/Unfav                           Gas prices            3
Fitzpatrick      43%/24%
Murphy           29 /23

See What We Mean?: A Global Strategies Group (D) poll; conducted 10/14-16 for Murphy; surveyed 406 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 10/27). Tested: Fitzpatrick and Murphy. 

General Election Matchup
             Now 9/06 7/06 3/06
Murphy       45% 38%  38%  35%
Fitzpatrick  43  47   44   49
Other/undec  12  15   18   16

3. Who Should I Make The Check Out To? Pres. Bush stumped for state Sen. Pres. Jeff Lamberti (R) in IA 03 "for about three hours," raising $400K. Aside from talking of taxes, Bush also "slipped a bit" and twice calling Lamberti "Dave."

In response, Rep. Leonard Boswell's (D) camp "sent reporters rubber stamps that read, 'Yes, Mr. President'" to "paint Lamberti as a yes-man" for Bush and his "dangerous scheme" to privatize Social Security. Meanwhile, Lamberti's camp says he opposes privatization and "that Boswell was distorting his record" (DesMoines Register).

4. Taking A Hit: First post-scandal poll in PA 07 shows Rep. Curt Weldon trailing Vice Adm Joe Sestak (D) by 7 points.

The Benenson Strategy Group (D) poll; conducted 10/24 for the DCCC; surveyed 400 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 10/27). Tested: Rep. Curt Weldon (R) and ret. Vice Adm. Joe Sestak (D).

General Election Matchup Dir. Of US Sestak 50% Right track 31% Weldon 43 Wrong track 62 Other/undec 7 Bush As Pres. Approve 27% Disapprove 72

Posted at 04:00 PM

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