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October 30, 2006

The Hotline's Hot Senate Race Updates

capitalbutton.gif A daily update of ads, polls, trends and analyses from the hottest Senate races. tracker.jpg
 Updated Race Rankings: House **** Senate **** Governors

1. NRSC Back In?: Although the last time the NRSC aired an ad for Sen. Conrad Burns (R) was 8/06, a new poll shows he has closed the gap on state Senate Pres. Jon Tester. According to a Hotline source, the NRSC has purchased $300K -- 1500-1800 GRPs per market -- of I.E. in MT.

Washington Post Columnist Robert Novak writes: "Burns made a personal appeal" to the WH for a late TV buy. "Help was promised after new polls showed Burns had cut into his previous double-digit deficit" (10/28).

2. Webb Leads, According To Dem Poll:In VA, a Garin Hart Yang Research Group (D) poll; conducted 10/26-29 for the DSCC; surveyed 811 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.5% (release, 10/30). Tested: Sen. George Allen (R) and ex-Navy Sec. Jim Webb (D). Note: "W/Lnrs" denotes leaners included. 

General Election Matchup
                 All W/Lnrs
Webb             43%   47%
Allen            38    43
Other/undec      19    10

3. Backlash? Ford Polling Indicates It : In TN, a Benenson Strategy Group (D) poll; conducted 10/26-28 for Rep. Harold Ford (D); surveyed 560 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.1% (Hotline sources, 10/30). Tested: Ford and ex-Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker (R). 

General Election Matchup            Fav/Unfav      Now
             Now 10/14 9/21         Ford         52%/40%
Ford         48%  46%  48%          Corker       45 /44
Corker       43   45   41
Other/undec   9    9   11

4. If She Wins, Will McCaskill Be Gilmour's Girl?:In MO, a Research 2000 poll; conducted 10/23-26 for the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and KMOV-TV; surveyed 800 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.5% (release, 10/29). Tested: Sen. Jim Talent (R), Aud. Claire McCaskill (D) and frequent candidate Frank Gilmour (L). Geographic abbreviations: STL is St. Louis. Sub is the St. Louis suburbs. KCM is Kansas City. N/S is the Northern and Southeastern regions of the state. General Election Matchup 

             All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk STL Sub
McCaskill    47% 88%  7% 46% 43% 51% 42% 81% 78% 51%
Talent       47   6  89  45  50  44  54   5  16  44  
Gilmour       2  --   2   4   3   1   2  --   1   2   
Other/undec   4   6   2   5   4   4   2  14   4   3   

Fav/Unfav      Now    8/31
McCaskill    51%/44% 50%/41%
Talent       50 /45  49 /45
Gilmour      16 / 7   8 / 5

Posted at 01:46 PM

Comments


Hurrah for the Dems. Our long national nightmare is finally coming to an end.

za | 10.31.06 12:22 PM


hi

matt | 10.31.06 04:19 PM

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