October 18, 2006
The Hotline's Hot Senate Race Updates
A daily update of ads, polls, trends and analyses from the hottest Senate races.
Updated Race Rankings: House **** Senate **** Governors
1. Kean Gives Himself A $400K Boost: State Sen. Tom Kean Jr. (R), who "had been coy on whether he would tap his family fortune" to assist his camp, "has lent" his since lent his camp $400K. Along with the NRSC's recent $500K ad buy, the new funds give Kean $5M CoH to Sen. Bob Menendez (D) $5.5M CoH. While Menendez's ads have "saturated" NJ, NY and Philly airwaves, Kean "only recently went on the air" in NJ. (Philadelphia Inquirer).
2. Could These Races Be Over? In OH and AZ, the polls suggest they could.
A CBS News/New York Times poll; conducted 10/11-15; surveyed 1020 RVs; margin of error +/- 3% (release, 10/18). Subsample of 689 LVs; margin of error +/- 4%. Tested: Sen. Mike DeWine (R) and Rep. Sherrod Brown (D). Party ID breakdown: 34%D, 27%R, 39%I/O.
A Northern AZ Univ. Grand Canyon State poll; conducted 10/11-16; surveyed 403 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 10/18). Tested: Gov. Janet Napolitano (D), conservative activist Len Munsil (R) and state party chair Barry Hess (L).
General Election Matchup Is Your Mind Made Up Or Is It Too
(LVs only) All Dem GOP Ind Early To Say? (LVs only, among
Brown 49% 84% 12% 44% those voting for __) All Brw DeW
DeWine 35 7 76 31 Made up 61% 66% 54%
Other/undec 16 9 12 25 Too early 39 34 45
General Election Matchup Napolitano 58% Munsil 25 Hess 3 Other/undec 14
3. Santorum Now Likely To Win The Gondor Vote: Meanwhile, in PA, Sen. Rick Santorum (R) "said America has avoided a second terrorist attack" for 5 years because the "Eye of Mordor" has veered toward Iraq instead. Santorum: "As the hobbits are going up Mount Doom, the Eye of Mordor is being drawn somewhere else... You know what? I want to keep it on Iraq. I don't want the Eye to come back here to the United States."
While Santorum said he's "a big 'Lord of the Rings' fan" and has read "The Hobbit" to his 6 children, Treas. Bob Casey Jr. (D) spokesperson Larry Smar said "You have to really question the judgment of a U.S. senator who compares the war in Iraq to a fantasy book. This is just like when he said Kim Jong II isn't a threat because he just wants to 'watch NBA basketball'" (Herald Standard).
Posted at 02:34 PM
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